Credit: UNICEF

By Guillaume Baggio, Manzoor Qadir and Vladimir Smakhtin
HAMILTON, Ontario, Canada, Jul 29 2021 (IPS)

In 1995, a highly-respected water expert in South Africa, Bill Pitman, in very concise terms illustrated that the country, already battling a growing lack of water then, would likely run out in 25 years if it did not increase its supply.

Twenty-five years have now passed and the country is thirstier than ever. The recent water crisis in Cape Town is just one manifestation of the nation’s chronic water scarcity. And there is likely more water trouble ahead.

Water scarcity issues have been vexing experts for decades. Scientists developed and debated various water scarcity concepts, indicators, and projections, essentially saying that it is a global issue with strong local specifics. Worldwide estimates of people affected by water scarcity vary accordingly and get gloomier with time.

A most recent assessment of water availability suggests that population growth alone (i.e. not factoring in climate change or water quality considerations) will lead to an unprecedented and widespread drop in water availability per capita.

By 2050, 87 countries will be water scarce (per capita water availability below 1,700 cubic meters per year), and the number of countries with absolute water scarcity (per capita water availability under 500 cubic meters per year) will almost double, from 25 today to 45.

As population growth is highly related to socioeconomic conditions, transitions to water scarcity may be particularly painful in the Global South. Low-income countries are projected to have an average drop in water availability per capita of around 46%, followed by lower-middle-income countries (decreasing by around 30%), upper-middle-income countries (12%), and high-income countries (close to 5%).

Credit: UNICEF

In a matter of 20–30 years — within a single generation — Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to become the next hotspot of water scarcity, where availability per capita will be halved by 2050. In the already bone-dry Middle East and North Africa region, water availability per capita might drop by 33%, followed by Asia (24%) and Latin America and the Caribbean (18%).

Ironically, and sadly, many countries in the Global South are water scarce already, although in a different way: they have no or little infrastructure to support people and their economy, even though some may be well endowed with freshwater resources.

They may therefore transition silently to physical scarcity — when there will simply not be enough water for all users and purposes. Hence, South Africa’s experience will likely be repeated in many countries, in unforeseen ways, within the lifetime of many of us. And economically-advanced countries will taste water scarcity too.

There are, of course, ways to mitigate the impacts of growing water shortages. All of them are context- specific.

One widely-advocated option is water demand management — particularly through improving water use efficiency in agriculture, responsible for most global water withdrawals. Efficiency cannot increase indefinitely, though.

Some countries may consider slowing population growth. Water is, after all, a limited resource. More people living in low-income and lower-middle-income countries means that water scarcity will become progressively more difficult to deal with — perhaps even impossible in our lifetime — despite aggressive water demand management.

Reducing population growth in developing countries can be achieved by meeting certain sustainable development goals (SDGs) — like SDG 4 (education) or SDG 8 (decent work).

As countries implement the options most suitable for them, one stands out as universally applicable: increasing water supply. Whether it is developing more water storage infrastructure (where feasible), or municipal water recycling and reuse, or improved agricultural water management practices — all options should be on the table. And many have already been proven effective all over the world.

In addition to the above, countries can benefit from and should consider a variety of “unconventional” — and hence yet mostly untapped resources — from the Earth’s seas to its upper atmosphere. Options and sources like harvesting water from the air, capturing flood rainwater in aquifers at large basin scales where the geology permits, massive implementation of climate-independent sea water desalination (a virtually unlimited resource) in coastal areas, where the majority of the world population lives — all have already demonstrated potential to address increasing local water shortages.

The perceived high cost of some such technologies is gradually going down; hence they are becoming more affordable with time. And the cost of inaction will certainly be higher.

In any case, water scarcity should not be seen as a myth or some science construct. It is a global challenge that manifests itself locally in a variety of ways. The water scarcity experiences in many countries clearly suggests a paradigm shift is needed. If we fail to act now, let’s not be surprised when taps stop running one day sooner than we might expect.

Guillaume Baggio is Research Associate, Manzoor Qadir is Assistant Director, and Vladimir Smakhtin is the Director at the UN University’s Canadian-based Institute for Water, Environment and Health, which is supported by the Government of Canada and hosted at McMaster University, Hamilton, Ontario. The Institute marks its 25th anniversary in 2021.

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A woman in Madagascar walks for up to 14km a day to find clean water. Credit: UNICEF/Safidy Andrianantenain

By Guillaume Baggio, Manzoor Qadir and Vladimir Smakhtin
HAMILTON, Ontario, Canada, Jul 1 2021 (IPS)

The COVID-19 pandemic has undeniably amplified the existing vulnerabilities of billions of people worldwide. Marginalized communities in developing countries were excluded from social protection and support.

Long-standing economic and social inequalities have deepened with the poor getting poorer. A sharp divide in the distribution of vaccines has revealed major issues in the global health sector.

Economic stimulus packages amounting to about $10 trillion were assembled in a matter of months — a much larger sum than what governments invested when the 2008 financial crisis struck. Yet, progress towards the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) have largely decelerated.

In fact, the pandemic has made many of the goals literally unachievable in the time left to 2030.

Progress towards SDG 6 — Ensure availability and sustainable management of water and sanitation for all — is among the goals most suffering. The world at large was already off track on this before the pandemic.

An estimated 2 billion and 3.6 billion people still live without access to safely managed water supplies and sanitation respectively. Funds needed to tackle this immense challenge were estimated in 2016 to be US $74–166 billion annually until 2030.

They have never been raised, and now, likely, more is needed. Instead, due to the pandemic, water funding is now projected to decrease.

The cost of meeting other SDG 6 targets – beyond just universal water supply and sanitation – is not included in the above. With attention turning now to post-pandemic economic recovery plans, the question is: where and how do we get the money needed to achieve SDG 6 in the final nine years of the SDG era if we continuously failed to do so in the first six?

Recently initiated acceleration frameworks create some hope, and yet it is difficult to be particularly optimistic.

As we face unresolved global water challenges, the COVID-19 pandemic, while detrimental in itself already, might be a prelude to more threatening events. The world needs to get used to and prepare for “living with pandemics”, as the risk of infectious diseases now competes side by side with the risk of our failure to act on climate change.

New infectious diseases may increase in the next decades not the least due to continuing uncontrolled human destruction of ecosystems. Next pandemics could bring even higher mortality rates or as yet unimaginable human health impacts.

In this context, providing safe water and sanitation, and ensuring healthy freshwater ecosystems are no longer matters of just basic needs, human rights or dignity. They are the matters of survival for all. Strategic actions are required now rather than waiting for the next pandemic episodes.

Countries will likely have little choice other than addressing multiple development challenges simultaneously. Yet, from the standpoint of preparing for future pandemics, further prioritization of those challenges needs to be made.

In the global water sector, there are several items that may need to receive priority in the next nine SDG years:

· Ensure the universal water and sanitation access in healthcare facilities. In Sub-Saharan Africa alone, roughly half of healthcare facilities lack access to basic water, and three quarters lack access to sanitation services, while data on access to basic hygiene services in these facilities is widely unavailable across all regions.

· Ensure water and sanitation access gap in schools. Globally, 31% and 37% of schools lack access to basic water and sanitation services respectively. Girls who lack access to safe water and sanitation at school are more likely to abandon their education creating long-term impacts, with losses in their lifetime productivity and earnings estimated at $15–30 trillion.

· Provide water access to refugees, who numbered more than 26 million in 2020. COVID-19 has worsened refugees’ living conditions and untreated water and inadequate sanitation and hygiene increased the possibility of infectious diseases – now and in the future.

· Improve water and health services for the urban poor. One in four of the world urban population live in informal settlements where social distancing, regular hand washing and other pandemic management practices are unfeasible. Short-term responses, including the suspension of water billing, and water trucks and water supply points, have been far from enough to offset the access gap in these areas.

The above challenges have a lot in common. All are explicitly human-centric and target the most vulnerable; hence they are critical to address if we are serious about leaving no one behind. All of them, if addressed, will alleviate the impact of future pandemics.

All contribute to SDG 6 targets on universal water supply and sanitation. All have strong links with other important SDGs, e.g. you cannot eradicate a source of refugees without ensuring peace, political stability and arresting environmental degradation.

And all are implicit within the current SDG targets. Achieving the above milestones may not be enough for universal access to water and sanitation, but they will still be unprecedented achievements in modern history.

Arresting the degradation of freshwater ecosystems – to alleviate the probability of future pandemics -also needs to be made much stronger. Although some relevant processes are on the way, they may turn out to be too lengthy to be effective.

Overall, the COVID-19 pandemic suggests that revisiting and articulating priorities in the ongoing SDG efforts may be in order. With almost 170 targets, the SDG framework, while comprehensive, is perhaps too ambitious for a rather short period.

And it is not just the matter of periodic assessment of the SDG progress, but also the matter of adjusting the targets; particularly when many original ones were blurred and when new major factors like pandemics recently reshaped the world. There are things that just can no longer wait. Fixing at least some of the world’s most chronic water problems is one of them.

Guillaume Baggio is Research Associate, Manzoor Qadir is Assistant Director, and Vladimir Smakhtin is the Director at the UN University’s Canadian-based Institute for Water, Environment and Health, which is supported by the Government of Canada and hosted at McMaster University, Hamilton, Ontario. The Institute marks its 25th anniversary in 2021.

Follow @IPSNewsUNBureau