QUESTION: what’s the best way to ensure that an issue gets state attention? Answer: make it a matter of national security. So here goes.

The world last week focused on a Russian tanker floating through the Arctic without an icebreaker, the latest sign of the rapid pace of climate change. Unfortunately, Pakistanis have problems to worry about closer to home.

A recent paper in Science Advances argues that by the end of the century — when my grandchildren will be in the prime of their lives — South Asia, particularly parts of southern Pakistan, northern India and Bangladesh, will experience levels of heat and humidity higher than what a human can survive without protection. Ours will not be the hottest part of the world in a few decades but it will be the hardest hit because climate change will affect food supplies in the Indus and Ganges river basins, and because our agrarian societies have a high number of poor workers who must toil the fields without any protection from the sun. We have already had a glimpse into this bleak future. Remember the 2015 heatwave that killed more than 3,500 people in Pakistan and India? Now imagine that to be the norm.

A recent paper in Science Advances argues that by the end of the century — when my grandchildren will be in the prime of their lives — South Asia, particularly parts of southern Pakistan, northern India and Bangladesh, will experience levels of heat and humidity higher than what a human can survive without protection
The paper should not come as a surprise. Thanks to its location, Pakistan is vulnerable to flooding and drought, monsoons and heatwaves, glacial melt and rising seawater. The alarm bells have been ringing with growing stridency in recent years. The country is forecast to face water scarcity by 2025 — that’s in eight years, the predictions no longer a distant threat for another generation. Karachi is already the sixth most water-stressed city in the world.

And yet, we remain silent on the impact of climate change. The issue is not raised at dharnas or tackled during prime-time talk shows. There are no fatwas or khutbas on the topic. No one takes to the Grand Trunk Road to make a point about environmental degradation. And so here’s a bid at securitising the issue in the hopes of increasing its relevance for a nation obsessed with national security and particularly amenable to existential crises.

When the climate changes, people are deprived of food and shelter. They lose their sources of income and migrate from the countryside to cities. They become poorer. They must resort to desperate measures.

Ours is a weaponised society that is fragmenting along ethnic, linguistic, tribal, sectarian and class lines. It is populated by bigots and ideologues who will use any opportunity to co-opt vulnerable people and deploy them in a violent way to serve an agenda. Growing resource scarcity in Pakistan will no doubt translate into growing levels of violence between groups that seem always to find new ways to emphasise schisms. Consider the example of Karachi, where ethno-political violence has for decades been driven by the underlying issues of land, water and energy shortages. Imagine the levels of violence witnessed in Karachi replicated in all our major cities. If today we hesitate to use the phrase ‘civil war’ to describe the violence within Pakistan, in a few decades we may have no choice.

It is tragic that the issue of climate change needs to be securitised to demand attention. The trend began with former army chief Ashfaq Kayani arguing that Pakistan’s water shortages were the driver for the country’s India-centric security policies. While there is some merit in having the most powerful person in the country stop to think about resource scarcity, securitising the issue risks dialogue around climate change being limited to concerns about water disputes with India, and a deepening of the current security paradigm, when in fact the problem is much bigger than that and demands a holistic solution. For example, will we have the courage to revisit coal-based CPEC projects?

The government will point to the passage of the Climate Change Act in March and the introduction in 2013 of the National Climate Change Policy. Various incentives for homeowners to instal solar panels have also generated much buzz. But these efforts are limping at best.

We need more, much more. Media awareness campaigns. Funding for climate science research. Capacity building to implement environmental policies at the provincial level, and greater centre-province coordination. Less cynicism from politicians regarding commitments to redress climate change (Nawaz Sharif’s trick of reducing the climate change ministry to a division and slashing its budget on coming to power, only to re-elevate it to the status of a federal ministry ahead of the Paris conference in 2015 is the kind of antic that demonstrates our state’s non-serious approach). Most importantly, we need to generate momentum around climate change without securitising the issue because this is one battle a military can never win.

This story was originally published by Dawn, Pakistan

The writer is a freelance journalist.

huma.yusuf@gmail.com

Twitter: @humayusuf

SENATOR Sardar Mohammad Yaqoob Khan Nasar’s comments about poverty — and the divine logic supposedly underpinning inequality — were obscene. However, they have stirred much-needed debate about poverty in Pakistan. One hopes the senator’s shameless remarks, which revealed the perversity of privilege among our political elite, drive some introspection among our policymakers and lead to more thoughtful discourse on poverty alleviation.

Mr Nasar and his peers could start by reading a new report published by the Pakistan Poverty Alleviation Fund and the Sustainable Development Policy Institute. Geography of Poverty in Pakistan — 2008-09 to 2012-13: Distribution, Trends and Explanations analyses multidimensional poverty in Pakistan at the national, provincial and district levels, highlights those districts where poverty is concentrated, and tracks the change in poverty in these districts over the five years.

Huma Yusuf

In addition to considering household in­­come and consumption data, the analysis accounts for other dimensions such as education, health, living conditions and asset ownership. The spatial and temporal approach provides helpful insights into the factors that lead to persistent poverty and the shortcomings of current poverty-reduction and growth policies.

The report confirms perceptions of stark interprovincial, intra-provincial and urban-rural differences in poverty levels. It is unlikely to come as a surprise that the highest poverty levels exist in Balochistan (62.6pc in 2012-13), followed by KP (39.3pc), Sindh (37.5pc) and Punjab (24.3pc). The high incidence of poverty in Balochistan is notable in the fact that while only 5.07pc of Pakistan’s population lives there, it is home to 10.2pc of the country’s poor.

The report’s analysis reveals that those districts with a low population density and a higher share of rural populations are at greater risk of high poverty levels. The poorest districts are clustered in southern Punjab and Sindh, and the report emphasises the persistence of rural poverty in Sindh. (PPP Senator Taj Haider appeared sensible in media reporting on Nasar’s comments, but his party’s track record on poverty alleviation leaves much to be desired.)

The incidence of extreme poverty is also high in Pakistan: 18.6pc of the population suffered extreme poverty in 2012-13. Extreme poverty is concentrated in rural areas, with 26.4pc of the rural population categorised as extreme poor as compared to 3pc of the urban population.

Many factors contribute to this high incidence of poverty. The report finds that access to quality public services and good governance is low in the poorest districts of Pakistan. Access to services in such districts is mediated by local power brokers who operate according to patronage systems that reinforce poverty — this finding is essentially an empirical statement of Nasar’s belief that the poor exist to till the land off which rich bureaucrats feed and thrive, and so must be left in that condition for the benefit of the elite.

Other factors contributing to the geographic concentration of poverty are the concentration of industry and infrastructure development in a few districts (where poverty is low as a result) to the exclusion of others; the failure to ensure that local communities benefit from the exploitation of natural resources in their areas; the recurrence of natural disasters in response to which the state has offered emergency relief packages but no long-term, sustainable infrastructure capacity; and conflict.

Other factors that the report recognises, but which require more research, are gender relations and the impact of migration (both internal and overseas).

Politicians are likely to seize on the finding that the poverty headcount ratio at the national level fell by 5.6pc over the five-year period under consideration. But the phenomenon of geographic concentration of poverty indicates the urgent need for targeted, tailored, and sophisticated poverty-alleviation policies. It also highlights that poverty reduction must be considered in a holistic manner, as a component within broader development, education and healthcare policies.

Specific recommendations arising out of findings can, and should, be acted upon immediately. Districts suffering extreme poverty report low satisfaction levels with public service delivery, highlighting the corruption and resulting gaps of patronage networks, and improving governance in poor, agrarian districts should be prioritised. The government should also invest in infrastructure and develop policies aimed at building the resilience of natural disaster-prone districts. Policies regarding ownership and control of natural resources also need overhauling.

In the current climate of mega projects, talk of poverty seems passé. But recent political discourse has emphasised the need for a more informed and sustained public conversation about poverty, and a nimbler state approach to the issue. Perhaps the Senate Functional Committee can atone for Nasar’s sins by kicking off a thorough policy review.

The writer is a freelance journalist.

huma.yusuf@gmail.com

This story was originally published by Dawn, Pakistan

Sadiq Khan is London`s new mayor.

Today is his first day in office. Or, as the world`s press would have it, he is London`s first Muslim mayor; the first Muslim mayor of a European capital. As results rolled in on Friday, to show that he had beat the Conservative Party`s Zac Goldsmith 57pc to 43pe, global news headlines began trickling in, with Khan`s religious identity inevitably the adjective of choice.

The New York Times described Khan as `one of the most prominent Muslim politicians in the West`; the American news website Drudge Report went for a cruder option, describing Khan as `the first Muslim mayor of Londonistan` The headlines have echoed the tenor of the London mayoral election, which has been a case of identity politics at its worst.

The Conservative Party tried to play up Labour candidate Khan`s Muslim identity, casting it in a negative light even positing it as a threat. A leaflet in Goldsmith`s name was distributed to the homes of voters with Hinduand Sikh-sounding names, claiming that Khan would impose a wealth tax on family jewellery simultaneously scaremongering and offending by conjuring stereotypes of South Asians with stashes of gold bangles.

A letter in Prime Minister David Cameron`s name addressed to similar constituencies described Khan as `dangerous` Other Conservative materials distributed to the homes of Hindu, Silch and Tamil Londoners contained assurances that Goldsmith would keep London safe from terrorist attacks (with the implication that Khan would not).

Goldsmith and Cameron also repeatedly accused Khan of being sympathetic to extremists, with the prime minister accusing him of links to radical imam Sulaiman Gani (Gani subsequently declared that he voted for the Conservative Party in the last general election).

The Conservative campaign backfired, as confirmed by the election results. Londoners have been offended at being singled out on a linguistic, ethnic and religious basis, and for being treated as communities apart from the British mainstream some have accused the Conservative party of stoking communalism. Goldsmith`s campaign has been labelled racist and bigoted. Goldsmith`s sister Jemima on Friday tweeted that she was `sad that Zac`s campaign did not reflect who I know him to be` Acknowledging the criticism of his rival`s campaign, Khan in his victory speech said he was proud of Londoners for choosing `hope over fear, and unity over division`. With these words, he has of fered a strong reminder of the limitations of identity politics. If Khan were interested in identity politics at any time in this campaign, it was in the context of class not creed. His campaign materials sought to frame the mayoral race as a contest between the son of a bus driver and the son of a billionaire. His official campaign video showed him riding a London bus, recalling his youth spent in a council flat a form of public housing while musing London`s current shortage of affordable homes.

But Khan`s victory has ultimately come down to policies: his commitment to ensure that 50pc of new homes built in London are affordable; his promise to freeze public transport fares for four years; his pledge to improve the city`s air quality and help Londoners gain skills to boost employment.

His victory has also come down to the perception that Khan is an effective politician.

As the local press has pointed out, he doesn`t lose he`s won seats as an MP and he helped the Labour party increase its vote share in London during the last general election even while the party was decimated elsewhere in the county.

There`s a lesson here for Pakistani politicians, many of whom are probably smugly celebrating the win of a British Pakistani Muslim mayor (and wondering what his housing policies mean for the value of their Mayfair apartments).

When election fever begins in Pakistan, too many parties remain complacent, relying on ethnic and linguistic affiliation to determine who they represent and how they win their votes. The PML-N has tried to reframe itself as a party that tackles the three Es extremism, energy, economy but by only doing so in Punjab it continues to implicitly play an identity politics.

In a Pakistan where the effects of the 2010 political devolution have yet to fully manifest, identity politics may seem like a valid option. But if Khan`s victory shows anything, it`s that it offers no guarantees if anything, it can be the thing that loses an election. This is particularly true in large cities where diverse identities are subsumed by the shared urban experience and the only things that matter are sensible policies and good governance. There are lessons here for politicians in the fastest urbanising country in South Asia; we`ll have to wait until 2018 to see what they have learned, if anything.

The writer is a freelance journalist. huma.yusuf@gmail.com

This story was originally published by Dawn, Pakistan

Behold Pakistan`s latest sporting craze: the game of accountability one-upmanship.

One Sharif called for `across-the-board accountability` and was reported to have removed a number of military officers on corruption charges; the other Sharif vowed to resign from his prime ministerial post if investigations into the leaked Panama Papers prove wrongdoing on the part of his family.

Opposition parties are gradually coordinating calls for the Supreme Court to establish a credible inquiry commission. If one is set up as the PM has suggested, one can expect the courts to take the lead in summoning politiclans from across the spectrum to account for their sins. Multidirectional corruption allegations used to be a sign in Pakistan of coups to come. There`s a throwback to this in Jamaat-iIslami leader Sirajul Haq`s decision to label corruption as `economic terrorism`. The word choice may appear to imply that the solution lies in military intervention.

The military set the stage of the JI chief`s coinage by linking the fight against corruption with winning the battle against terrorism, shifting the focus away from the violent ideologies of extremist groups to the venality of the political class.

This shift has already materialised in Sindh where paramilitary operations aimed at rooting out terrorist groups instead targeted PPP and MQM members suspected of engaging in corrupt activities, including involvement in organised crime and terrorism.

But Pakistan is meant to have outgrown its coup phase. Why would the military need to move in that direction when it has already consolidated power over the government and judiciary under the auspices of the National Action Plan and the Protection of Pakistan Act? Military courts and apex committees provide the security establishment with covert sway over the civilian sphere, saving it the trouble of overt rule. So why the renewed interest in accountability? Some of it may have to do with the evolving internal and regional security situation. While fending off corruption allegations, politicians have little time left to push back against establishment strategies in the region or mobilise civilian lawenforcement agencies to carry out counterterrorism operations, thereby winning back some oversight over domestic security.

As the fighting stage of Zarb-i-Azb draws to a close, the natural and sensible progression would be for the military to cede control to civilian authorities and empower the government to implement anti-terrorism regulation and deradicalisation initiatives.

A spotlight on the corruption of government institutions and the police in particular would boost an argument in favour of indefinite involvement by the security establishment. It would also prevent disagreementssuch as the recent one over counterterrorism operations in Punjab from gaining traction.

More broadly, the country is preparing to reap the benefits of the improved security situation through economic revival, starting with foreign investment under the auspices of CPEC. Increased accountability pressure at this juncture will help ensure that planned mega projects are not delayed or sullied by concerns about kickbacks or other corruption.

But all players in this game must remain cautious. The taint of corruption is indiscriminate and hard to wipe off. The military is already facing questions about its reticence regarding the removal of some officers allegedly involved in corrupt activities as well as reports that they continue to receive pensions and other benefits. Mounting corruption allegations are known to be a deterrent for effective governance and project implementation.

The fear of being retroactively investigated on corruption charges makes officials tasked with implementing projects reluctant to sign off on any decision. Ironically, political gamesaimed at taking control of projects may ultimately lead to slower implementation as corruption allegations fly in all directions.

This does not mean that Pakistan`s institutions civilian and military alike should not be pushed to increase transparency and accountability. Genuine anti-cor-ruption efforts are urgently required, not least to end the vicious political cycle of accusations and counter-accusations so that everyone can get on with good governance. But to truly effect change, anti-corruption initiatives will have to move beyond targeting individuals to improving institutions. Judicial inquiries may help weed out a few individuals who have engaged in heinous corruption. But they will not fix the system that enshrines a lack of transparency.

The time has come to talk about policies and institutional reforms that would genuinely lead to greater accountability financial disclosure systems; transparency around budget allocations and spending for all institutions, including the military; opening the accounts of all government-linked corporate entities for scrutiny; improving corporate governance requirements; better regulating asset declarations; and more.

Without a systemic approach, an anti-corruption drive will be little more than a game with no winners.

The writer is a freelance joumalist. huma.yusuf@gmail.com

This story was originally published by Dawn, Pakistan