A new era of crisis for children, as global conflicts intensify and inequality worsens. Credit: UNICEF/Diego Ibarra Sánchez
 
A five-year-old walks amongst the ruins of houses in southern Lebanon. An increasingly turbulent geopolitical and financial landscape mean systems for protecting children must be stronger than ever.

By Jasmina Byrne
UNITED NATIONS, Feb 25 2025 (IPS)

In 2025, the world is facing a new and intensifying era of crisis for children. Climate change, economic instability, and conflict are hitting harder and more often, intersecting in ways that make the challenges of addressing them even more severe.

These developments reflect a world of rising geopolitical tensions and competition among nations that is delaying global action we desperately need.

For children, the stakes couldn’t be higher. To uphold children’s rights and well-being, we need to rethink how to strengthen the very systems that provide key services for children. These systems must be equipped to meet immediate needs, withstand growing pressures, and adapt to the uncertainties of the future.

Resilience has to be built into every part of these systems, ensuring they can protect children at scale, no matter the crisis.

When it comes to geopolitics, conflicts and war will continue to be among the most serious threat to children’s lives and wellbeing. Over 473 million children – more than one in six globally – now live in areas affected by conflict, with the world experiencing the highest number of conflicts since World War II.

In these settings, systems for protecting children must be stronger than ever. Clear rules of engagement for military forces, measures to address violations by non-state actors, and effective monitoring and reporting systems are all crucial to safeguarding children’s lives and rights in conflict zones.

Squeezed from all sides

The economic landscape is no less alarming. Right now, governments’ coffers are being hit by a mix of weak tax revenues, declining aid and rising debt. Rising debt, in particular, is creating unprecedented budget pressures. Nearly 400 million children live in countries facing debt distress, where the financial squeeze is cutting into investments in education, healthcare, and safety nets.

In 2025, we face crucial decisions about reforms to the framework of institutions, policies, rules and practices that govern the global financial system – decisions that could reshape the financial landscape to prioritize sustainable development, intergenerational equity and investment in children.

Climate change, of course, is a crisis that touches every aspect of children’s lives. From extreme weather destroying schools to diseases spreading in its wake, children are disproportionately affected.

In 2025, we must focus on ensuring that climate governance and accountability mechanisms work for children – from incorporation of child rights into national mitigation and adaptation policies to providing necessary finance to implement these plans. Strengthening legally backed climate reporting and monitoring are key to effective climate action for children.

Securing the digital future

When it comes to technological trends, we see clear benefits but also potential risks for children – a reality of the past several years that will continue in 2025. Rapid adoption of digital public infrastructure is one of the trends that can enable systemic changes and fundamentally shift how governments engage with citizens.

But what is digital public infrastructure (DPI)? Sometimes compared to physical infrastructure, digital infrastructure can allow citizens to access digital public services and take part in digital economy through use of digital IDs, data sharing and digital payment systems.

DPI can play a crucial role in advancing children’s well-being by ensuring equitable access to essential services such as education, health care and social protection.

However, DPI it is not inherently inclusive, and too often children in lower income settings are left behind. So, we must prioritize children’s rights and enable seamless, safe and secure data exchange between health, education, and social services to create a holistic support system for child development.

In 2025 and beyond, progress for children demands stronger alignment between global and national priorities. Strengthening national systems and ensuring they are aligned vertically (from global to local) and nationally (across sectors) is critical to achieving our shared goals in health, education, safety, poverty eradication and climate adaptation.

Getting it right creates a foundation of resilience. After all, children and young people are looking to us to ensure their futures today.

Jasmina Byrne is Chief, Foresight & Policy, UNICEF Innocenti – Global Office of Research and Foresight.

Source: UNICEF

IPS UN Bureau

Follow @IPSNewsUNBureau
  

Credit: UNICEF/Abdulazeem Mohamed
 
War in Sudan is putting the future of its 24 million youngest citizens at risk, the Representative of the UN Children’s Fund (UNICEF) warned. January 2024
 
Meanwhile geopolitical and geoeconomic fragmentation threaten the development and survival of children across the globe. But a more hopeful path exists.

By Jasmina Byrne
UNITED NATIONS, Feb 23 2024 (IPS)

At the start of 2024, we stand at a critical juncture: Geopolitical tensions are escalating, economic integration is unravelling, and multilateral cooperation is faltering. This global fragmentation threatens to undermine decades of progress made for children worldwide.

The choices we make today – whether to continue on this path or whether we should bolster global cooperation – will have a profound impact on generations to come.

Children are always the most vulnerable in times of crisis – a reality highlighted by the COVID-19 pandemic, when school closures, economic hardship and disrupted health services jeopardized children’s rights and wellbeing.

Almost four years since that pandemic was declared, our new report, Prospects for Children in 2024: Cooperation in a Fragmented World, paints a concerning picture for children’s future development and welfare.

Tensions among major powers are rising and the threat of new conflicts emerging is high. Beyond the immediate physical dangers, children can experience lasting psychological trauma and violations of their basic rights.

If military spending continues increasing at the expense of investments in healthcare, education and social protections, children’s development will be further compromised.

Meanwhile, economic fragmentation is widening disparities between countries. Restrictive trade policies and supply chain disruptions are leading to rising energy and food prices, reducing access to essential goods and negatively impacting child nutrition and household incomes.

Competition for critical minerals essential for the green economy is increasing the risks of trade fragmentation while threatening the pace of the green energy transition. At the same time, the drive to expand mining for minerals puts mining communities and children at risk of exploitative practices.

Despite continued global economic growth, the lukewarm and uneven recovery is diminishing prospects for reducing child poverty. From now until 2030, 15 million more children a year will be living in poverty than would have otherwise, due to the unequal post-COVID recovery.

This gloomy picture is compounded by the weakening of multilateral institutions, which is further undermining the potential for progress for children. Why?

Because a fragmented multilateral system that is hamstrung by competing interests will struggle to deliver on conflict prevention, climate change, effective digital governance, debt relief and enforcing child rights standards, fuelling dissatisfaction in the Global South with rising inequalities.

Children in the poorest nations also face continued barriers to financing for basic services. Crippling debt, high remittance fees and lack of voice in global economic governance restrict investments in healthcare, education and social protections – investments vital to children’s survival and development.

But amid all these concerning trends, we see still signs of hope. Alternative alliances are emerging in the developing world to advance cooperation, bringing novel policy solutions, more nimble policymaking and effective results.

Despite expressing discontent with current democratic political structures, young people remain optimistic that opportunities exist to reform and resolve deficiencies in the political system, whether at the national or international level. They are engaging as change-makers, breathing new life into civic participation and democratic renewal.

In addition, technological innovations are unlocking new opportunities to empower children and enhance their rights. Green transition, if carried out in a just and sustainable way – one that prioritizes young people’s needs, skills and access to jobs in emerging sectors (such as the digital and green economy) – can benefit younger generations.

Reforms and modernization of global governance and financing arrangements could still deliver greater justice for developing countries. This more hopeful path will not unfold on its own. It requires global leaders to make an active choice – to double down on solidarity, inclusion and cooperation despite tensions and instability.

Prioritizing children and their rights must be at the centre of this choice.

Jasmina Byrne is Chief, Foresight & Policy, UNICEF Innocenti – Global Office of Research and Foresight.

IPS UN Bureau

Follow @IPSNewsUNBureau
  

A family walks past a heavily damaged building in Borodianka, Ukraine. Multiple threats are converging to leave families reeling. But putting children at the centre of the response can help shape a brighter future. Credit: UNICEF/UN0765276/Filippov

By Jasmina Byrne
UNITED NATIONS, Feb 14 2023 (IPS)

The year 2022 was incredibly difficult for people around the world. We were confronted by a series of major crises, including a continuing pandemic, a major war in Europe, an energy crisis, rising inflation and food insecurity.

These events hit children particularly hard, compounding the already severe impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. Millions of children had to flee their homes because of conflict or extreme weather events. At the same time, child malnutrition and the number of children in need of humanitarian assistance rose.

The war in Ukraine, for example, has led to higher food and energy prices, which in turn has contributed to rising global hunger and inflation. Efforts to address inflation through rising interest rates in the US have driven up the value of the dollar against other currencies, making developing countries’ imports, debt repayments and their ability to access external financing more difficult.

As we explain in our new report, ‘Prospects for Children in the Polycrisis: A 2023 Global Outlook’, these realities have added up to what has been termed a ‘polycrisis’ – multiple, simultaneous crises that are strongly interdependent.

As we look to 2023, it’s clear that the polycrisis is likely to continue shaping children’s lives. The effects of these intertwined and far-reaching trends will be difficult to untangle, and solutions will be difficult to find as policymakers struggle to keep up with multiple urgent needs.

The situation is particularly dire in economically developing countries. Higher food and energy prices have contributed to a rise in global hunger and malnourishment, with children among the most affected.

The polycrisis is also limiting access to healthcare for many children, making it harder for them to receive treatment and routine vaccinations. Recovery from learning losses caused by the closure of schools will be slow and felt for years to come, while the shift to remote learning has left children from low-income families facing the greatest challenges in catching up.

At the same time, the combination of higher financing needs, soaring inflation and a tighter fiscal outlook will widen the education financing gap needed to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals.

Climate change, too, is also a part of this polycrisis, with visible effects, including devastating floods in Pakistan and droughts in East Africa, making it harder for children to access education, food and healthcare, and causing widespread displacement of populations.

All these factors have led UNICEF to estimate that 300 million children will be in need of humanitarian assistance this year. This staggering number highlights the urgency for international organizations and governments to step in and provide assistance.

But the polycrisis doesn’t have to lead to further instability or, ultimately, systemic breakdown. Some of the stresses we saw in 2022 have already weakened, and new opportunities may arise to alleviate the situation.

For example, food and oil prices have dropped from their peaks, and good harvests in some countries may help to lower global food prices. Fortunately, we know there are solutions and strategies that work.

One potential solution is to increase investment in social protection programmes, such as cash transfers and food assistance, which can help alleviate the immediate economic impacts of the polycrisis on families. These programmes can also help to build resilience and reduce vulnerabilities.

The establishment of learning recovery programmes will help tackle the learning losses and prevent children from falling further behind. And early prevention, detection and treatment plans for severe child malnutrition have been effective in reducing child wasting.

Ultimately, a coordinated and collective effort is needed to protect the rights and well-being of children. This includes not only providing immediate assistance but also addressing the underlying causes of the polycrisis and building resilience for the future.

This cannot be achieved without a more coordinated and collective effort from international organizations and governments to help mitigate the effects of the polycrisis and protect children’s futures.

And, crucially, we must listen to children and young people themselves so that we can understand the future they want to build and live in. In fact, we followed this approach when we were assessing trends for ‘Prospects for Children in the Polycrisis’, asking young people from across the world age 16 to 29 to give us their views on some of the challenges their generation faces.

It’s critical that we take action to protect the most vulnerable among us. The future may be uncertain, but by working together we can help to build a better future for our children.

Jasmina Byrne is Chief of Foresight and Policy, UNICEF Innocenti – Global Office of Research and Foresight.

‘Prospects for Children in the Polycrisis: A 2023 Global Outlook’, produced by UNICEF Innocenti – Office of Global Research and Foresight, unpacks the trends that will impact children over the next 12 months.

Source: UNICEF

IPS UN Bureau

Follow @IPSNewsUNBureau