UN inspectors of the Joint Coordination Centre go to inspect a grain shipment aboard the merchant vessel LADY SPERANZA under the Black Sea Grain Initiative, Istanbul, 17 February 2023. Credit: UN/Duncan Moore
 
“Russia is now deliberately targeting Ukraine’s grain storage and export infrastructure… There is a form of madness here as Putin has decided to weaponise food and perhaps his plan is to create a global food crisis.”

By John R. Bryson
BIRMINGHAM, UK, Aug 4 2023 (IPS)

Russia’s special military or colonization operation in Ukraine continues to surprise. These surprises come from a decided absence of strategic thinking by Vladimir Putin and the Kremlin.

Fundamentally, a paradox sits behind Putin’s war with Ukraine. This paradox reflects the tension between Putin’s desire to demonstrate that Russia is still a major power on the world stage and actions that continue to undermine Russia’s economy and international standing.

Central to this tension are differences between Russia and Ukraine regarding the value of human life. A recent battlefield incident highlights this difference.

Serhiy had been wounded and separated from his Ukrainian unit. He was spotted by a Ukrainian drone operator who reacted rapidly to save him. The drone operator from the 15th National Guard stated that they did not want to leave Serhiy as “every life is important to us”.

Putin and the Kremlin place no value on life. Whilst Serhiy was been rescued a Russian priest from the orthodox church proclaimed on Russian state television that Russian forces “came to war not to kill but to die” as a form of sacrifice.

This type of statement reflects the value placed by the Russian establishment on the life of Russian citizens. This then reflects Putin’s paradox as his war with Ukraine has made matters much worse for nearly all Russian citizens.

Putin’s decision to leave the UN-brokered grain export arrangement is another indicator of the value that the Kremlin places on human life. This is another paradoxical decision.

On the one hand, Russia is now deliberately targeting Ukraine’s grain storage and export infrastructure. This is civilian infrastructure, and moreover it is infrastructure that plays a critical role in world food markets and in feeding some of the most vulnerable people living on this planet.

There is a form of madness here as Putin has decided to weaponise food and perhaps his plan is to create a global food crisis. On Wednesday 2 August, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that “Moscow is waging a battle for a global catastrophe. In their madness, they need world food markets to collapse, they need a price crisis, they need disruptions in supplies”.

On the other hand, it is important to explore which countries benefited the most from the Black Sea grain deal. The answer is perhaps surprising – China. Ukraine exported 7.9 million tonnes of grain or just under a quarter of the grain involved in the Black Sea initiative to China.

Putin’s decision to prevent grain from being exported from Ukraine to China raises some interesting questions regarding the special relationship that is supposed to exist between these countries.

Putin’s war with Ukraine has led to Russia’s on-going isolation from international affairs. Putin is trying to address this isolation by trying to make friends. This process includes his intention that Russia “will be ready to provide Burkina Faso, Zimbabwe, Mali, Somalia, Central African Republic and Eritrea with 25-50,000 tonnes of free grain each in the next three to four months”.

There is a problem here in that Putin’s offer of between 150,000 and 300,000 tonnes of grain does not compensate for the 750,000 tonnes of Ukrainian grain that was purchased by the World Food Programme (WFP) and shipped immediately to countries like Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, and Sudan.

The WFP is the largest humanitarian organization in the world and importantly this is not controlled by a single nation but was established by the United Nations.

There are rather too many Putin paradoxes. This includes his proclamation regarding the end of “neo-colonialism” and the emergence of a multi-polar global order.

There is the obvious tension here in that Putin states that he is against the application of power and influence to subjugate other countries, but then offers ‘free food’ to some countries and yet free food always comes with strings attached.

Evidently, Putin favours colonialism but also practices neo-colonialism.

Putin’s rhetoric regarding his vision of a new multipolar world must be treated with caution. Putin’s imaginary new world has much in common with George Orwell’s novel ‘Animal Farm’ in that all nations would be equal, but Russia would be more equal than others.

A truly multi-polar world would be one in which initiatives led by organisations like the UN take priority over any initiatives led by any one country. It is time to shift away from one nation trying to dominate global affairs to a world in which effective supranational organisations try to ensure that all living on planet earth are treated equably.

Of course, this is a utopian vision. The realty will be a continued struggle between competing politicians/nations, and this will result in negative outcomes for all.

John R. Bryson is Professor of Enterprise and Economic Geography – University of Birmingham

The University of Birmingham is ranked amongst the world’s top 100 institutions, and its work brings people from across the world to Birmingham, including researchers and teachers and more than 8,000 international students from over 150 countries.

IPS UN Bureau

Follow @IPSNewsUNBureau
  

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres told news reporters on 28 September 2022 that Russia’s plan to annex four occupied regions in Ukraine would be an illegal move, a violation of international law, and should be condemned, as a “dangerous escalation” in the seven-month war. “In this moment of peril, I must underscore my duty as Secretary-General to uphold the Charter of the United Nations,” he told journalists in New York. “The Charter is clear. Any annexation of a State’s territory by another State resulting from the threat or use of force is a violation of the Principles of the UN Charter and international law.” Credit: UN Photo/Mark Garten

By John R. Bryson
BIRMINGHAM, UK, Dec 8 2022 (IPS)

The one thing that has become clear is that there is no point in negotiating with Putin. Ukraine is considered as the gates of Europe, or a borderland with a brutal past.

It is time to develop a permanent solution to the Ukrainian problem. This can only be achieved by Ukraine continuing to stand united against Russia and with the support of all nations and their leaders interested in supporting an independent nation against unwarranted aggression.

Every day that passes comes with more atrocities committed by Russia on Ukrainians. The current phase of Russia’s ‘rapid’ special military operation is focused on disrupting the everyday lives of Ukrainian citizens. This is about deliberately bombing critical national civilian infrastructure with a focus on electricity and water.

It has included a Russian missile strike killing a new born baby when a rocket struck a maternity ward in southern Ukraine. Evidently, to Russia maternity wards represent military assets.

This phase of Putin’s war with Ukraine is about trying to force President Zelensky to enter in to negotiations that might end with some temporary truce. Any truce would be temporary as Russia would use this period to rearm.

It is critical that no negotiations or truce occurs whilst Russia continues to occupy Ukrainian territory. Any truce would represent a defeat for Ukraine and a win for Putin. Moreover, Russia’s military capacity and capability must be eroded to ensure that there is no possibility for Putin to restart his special military operation.

Zelensky is very aware of the dangers of negotiating with Russia. On 21 November 2022, Petro Poroshenko, former Ukrainian president, outlined Ukraine’s reaction to any proposed negotiations with Russia to the Council on Foreign Relations, an American think tank, when he asked his audience to imagine that you are sitting in your own home and “the killer comes to your house and kills your wife, rapes your daughter, takes the second floor.

Then opens the door to the second floor and says, ‘OK come here. Let’s have a negotiation how to live further’. What would be your reaction?” He then went on to note that “from my personal experience. . . don’t trust Putin”.

Negotiations, or a truce, then should be avoided, but how will Russia’s war with Ukraine end? Perhaps Ukraine will be forced to negotiate when Russia has destroyed all the country’s critical civilian infrastructure.

Nevertheless, responsible nations should try to prevent this from happening. An important question to consider is which organisations have the interest and power to persuade Russia to cease its special military operation?

The answer to this question is intriguing. The United Nations is just a talking shop and has no power. Most of the UN members are against Russia’s war and this includes all the actions targeted at civilians. President Joe Biden appreciates the plight of the Ukrainian people and is ensuring that the American people provide assistance.

Nevertheless, Biden is powerless as he has no authority over Russia. The same is the case for Emmanuel Macron, President of France. Macron has tried to negotiate and influence Putin and discovered that he has no influence and no power.

Macron’s current plan is to try to resume direct contract with Vladimir Putin, but for what end and whose purpose. What right does Macron have to try to negotiate on behalf of Ukraine?

Olaf Scholz, German Chancellor, initially hesitated in supporting Ukraine and more recently has appealed to Putin to “stop the senseless killing, withdraw your troops completely from Ukraine and agree to peace talks with Ukraine”. Putin will perhaps not even hear this appeal and he certainly will not take advice from the German Chancellor, the French President, or the President of the United States.

The implication is that the UN and all the prime ministers and presidents are powerless in the face of Putin’s aggression in Ukraine. Thus, who has the power to persuade Putin to cease and desist? There are only three stakeholders who have any power over Putin.

First, there are the Ukrainian people who have shown that they have the capability, persistence, power, and courage to stand up against Russia. The best outcome is that Russia is defeated on the battlefield and is forced to leave Ukraine.

Second, there are the Russian people. They have the option of revolting against Putin and declaring that they have had enough, and it is time to stop sending Russians to their death.

Third, there is Russia’s political elite or the country’s political, economic, and military decision makers. They are increasingly concerned over Putin’s war but have yet to reach a tipping point that would lead to action.

The one thing that has become clear is that there is no point in negotiating with Putin. Ukraine is considered as the gates of Europe, or a borderland with a brutal past. It is time to develop a permanent solution to the Ukrainian problem.

This can only be achieved by Ukraine continuing to stand united against Russia and with the support of all nations and their leaders interested in supporting an independent nation against unwarranted aggression.

John R. Bryson is Professor of Enterprise & Economic Geography, Birmingham Business School

The University of Birmingham is ranked amongst the world’s top 100 institutions. Its work brings people from across the world to Birmingham, including researchers, teachers and more than 8,000 international students from over 150 countries.

IPS UN Bureau

Follow @IPSNewsUNBureau