If you are reading commodity price movements as evidence that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has been absorbed without consequence, you are reading the right data for the wrong time horizon. Credit: Mauricio Ramos/IPS

By Máximo Torero
ROME, Apr 17 2026 (IPS)

The headlines are wrong about food prices — but right to be afraid, very afraid. Walk into a supermarket in Chicago, Berlin, or Mumbai today, and you will not find the shelves stripped bare or the prices dramatically higher than last month. Despite weeks of alarming headlines about commodity markets, food inflation in most major economies has risen only marginally — a tenth or two-tenths of a percentage point between February and March of this year. In the United States, food inflation moved from roughly 2.9 percent to 3.1 percent. In Germany, from 0.8 to 0.9. In India, from 7.8 to 8.0.

This is not a crisis at the checkout counter. Not yet.

But here is what the headlines are getting wrong, and what they are getting terrifyingly right at the same time: the stability you see today is real, and it is also beside the point. What is coming — if the world does not act quickly and the cease fire does not continue— is a food price shock of a different order, arriving not in March but in the harvests of late 2026 and the markets of 2027.

To understand why, you first have to understand what commodity price indexes actually measure, and what they do not. The FAO Food Price Index — which did rise slightly in March, driven largely by vegetable oils and sugar amid higher crude oil costs — tracks the international price of raw agricultural commodities: wheat, maize, rice, oilseeds, dairy.

It does not track what you pay for a baguette or a box of pasta. By the time wheat becomes bread, the grain itself represents only 10 to 15 percent of the final retail price. The rest is energy, labor, processing, packaging, logistics, and retail margins.

This cost structure is precisely why grocery bills do not lurch upward the moment commodity markets move. It is also why the current calm is not a reliable indicator of future stability specially because of the significant share of energy costs.

Short-term stability is not medium or long-term security. The time between a fertilizer shock and a harvest failure is measured in months. The time between a harvest failure and a food price surge is measured in months more. We are already inside that window

The markets for major cereals are, for now, sending reassuring signals. Wheat and maize prices have held steady. Rice prices actually declined. Global cereal stocks remain high, and the market is correctly reflecting sufficient near-term availability. If you are reading commodity price movements as evidence that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has been absorbed without consequence, you are reading the right data for the wrong time horizon.

The Strait carries roughly 35% of crude oil exports — but its disruption reaches agrifood systems through a less obvious channel, logistics and energy costs for food processing. In addition, the Strait carries 20% of natural gas which can’t be replaced by any other source, and which is essential for nitrogen fertilizer ( specifically urea), 20-30% of fertilizers export depending on the specific type and about 50% of Sulfur exports a key input to produce phosphate fertilizer. All this is still  not showing up in this month’s price indexes. 

According to FAO analysis, the Strait of Hormuz closure has choked off 30 to 35 percent of global urea trade. Urea prices have already jumped between 40 and 60 percent. The feedstock that makes nitrogen fertilizer possible — natural gas — has risen 70 to 90 percent in price. Brent crude is up 60 percent just before the cease of fire.

These are not abstract figures. They are the inputs that farmers in the United States, Europe, South Asia, and across the Northern Hemisphere are confronting right now, as planting season either begins or approaches.

The decision they face is not a comfortable one: pay double for fertilizer when commodity prices are already low, and hope prices recover, or cut application rates and accept lower yields. Some will shift toward nitrogen-fixing crops like soybeans. Others will pivot toward crops destined for biofuel production, reducing the food supply further still.

The consequences of those decisions will not appear on store shelves until the harvest comes in, or the markets decides to incorporate them in future prices. When they do, the combination of constrained yields, elevated energy costs running through every link of the supply chain, and ongoing trade disruptions will drive commodity prices higher, and food prices even higher because of the additional energy cost increases — not by a tenth of a point per month, but meaningfully, in ways that will be felt most acutely by the households that can least afford it.

Short-term stability is not medium or long-term security. The time between a fertilizer shock and a harvest failure is measured in months. The time between a harvest failure and a food price surge is measured in months more. We are already inside that window.

The world’s response cannot wait for the price indexes to confirm what the agronomic and economic data already make clear.

Governments, development institutions, and the private sector must act now on three fronts: ensuring fertilizer access for smallholder farmers and input and food import-dependent nations before their planting decisions become irreversible; protecting and diversifying trade routes so that disruption in one chokepoint does not become a global supply crisis; avoid export restrictions of fertilizers and energy products and pursuing with urgency the diplomatic solutions that remain, for now, within reach.

The supermarket and retail store shelves are stocked. The silos are full. And the window to keep them that way is closing. 

Keeping the Strait of Hormuz open is therefore not just about preventing food inflation — it is about averting a broader surge in overall inflation that would directly undermine economic growth, while also shielding every other sector dependent on the energy and input prices that flow through this strategic chokepoint.

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Women farmers clearing farmland in Northern Bangladesh. Credit: Naimul Haq/IPS

By Máximo Torero
ROME, Feb 25 2026 (IPS)

Farmland has long been one of the most important sources of security across generations. Writing about China nearly a century ago, Pearl S. Buck noted in The Good Earth, “If you will hold your land, you can live.” That holds true today. When farmers own land, they invest in it. When they don’t, they extract what they can today without thinking of tomorrow.

This household-level decision becomes a structural problem at scale: land degradation — today, 1.7 billion people live in areas of declining agricultural productivity — reflects systemic underinvestment in land, often rooted in insecure land tenure. The good news is that this means reforming and enforcing land tenure can be a powerful tool to combat land degradation and food insecurity.

Globally, only about a quarter of land is formally recognized. In sub-Saharan Africa, where customary systems dominate landholding, communities have been exposed to encroachment, weak dispute resolution, and exclusion from services and finance. More than 1.1 billion people believe they could lose rights to their land the next five years. This perceived insecurity has intensified amid rising financial pressure and displacement.

Land degradation reflects systemic underinvestment in land, often rooted in insecure land tenure. The good news is that this means reforming and enforcing land tenure can be a powerful tool to combat land degradation and food insecurity

Evidence from Ghana and Malawi shows that farmers with informal or seasonal rental agreements are significantly less likely to invest in soil restoration, water management, or productivity-enhancing practices. This is because they could lose access to the land before those investments generate returns over multiple years. Without land as collateral, farmers also struggle to access credit, insurance, and financial services needed to finance such improvements.

Customary systems have persistently disadvantaged women, who make up half of smallholder producers, in inheritance and transfer rights. Globally, women hold only 15% of agricultural land, and even when they do, they are susceptible to losing it in case of divorce or death of a spouse.

Limited legal access to land, combined with weak access to credit, insurance, and inputs, has reinforced cycles of low productivity, land degradation, and vulnerability for women farmers.

Where land tenure is weak or contested, rising land demand can fuel conflict. In Colombia, post-conflict agricultural expansion into forest areas has generated tensions where land claims remain unresolved. Similar disputes have emerged in parts of sub-Saharan Africa, where weak legal recognition of customary rights and insecure land claims make households vulnerable to land disputes, especially when large-scale land acquisitions occur.

These recurring tensions have reinforced the case for strengthening land governance as a foundation for stability and development. In fact, some 70 countries have initiated land policy reforms since 2012, when the UN endorsed internationally agreed principles protecting legitimate tenure rights, including customary ones. But many legislative reforms have been slow to translate into practice on the ground. Dispute resolution systems remain weak, and the rights of women, Indigenous Peoples, and customary landholders are still inconsistently recognized.

Change couldn’t come sooner. Reversing even 10% of degraded cropland could feed 154 million more people annually. Without government intervention, the world could face a farmland deficit twice the size of India by 2050.

Of course, secure land tenure alone won’t automatically restore land. Half of global farmland is controlled by the largest 1% of producers many of whom operate intensive production models that can accelerate land degradation when not paired with strong environmental safeguards. So land tenure reform must be accompanied by effective regulation, targeted incentives, access to finance and extension services, and strong institutional capacity.

Rising land demand, climate stress, and large-scale land acquisitions will continue to test the durability of these reforms. Whether these pressures translate into instability or resilience depends on policy choices. If governments want farmers to restore the land, they must first ensure that farmers can hold it.

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Reaching a healthy diet requires USD 5.16 PPP per day, an amount out of reach for 182 million people in the region. Credit: Max Valencia / FAO

By Máximo Torero
Sep 30 2025 (IPS)

Just a few years ago, at the height of the COVID-19 pandemic, millions of families in Latin America and the Caribbean did not know whether they would have enough food for the next day. The shutdown of economies, massive job losses, and the sharp rise in prices pushed food insecurity to levels not seen in decades.

And yet, the region surprised the world: between 2020 and 2024, the prevalence of moderate or severe food insecurity fell from 33.7% to 25.2%, the largest reduction recorded globally. It was a remarkable achievement, made in a global context marked by overlapping crises.

However, behind this progress lies a silent enemy that does not appear in harvest photos or market openings yet erodes the purchasing power of millions of households every day: food inflation. This is not just a temporary rise in prices, but a persistent trend that threatens to reverse hard-won progress and deepen inequalities.

Latin America and the Caribbean have shown that, with sound policies and political will, it is possible to reduce hunger even in an adverse global context. But food inflation reminds us that progress is fragile, and structural vulnerabilities can erode it quickly

During 2022 and 2023, food prices systematically rose faster than general inflation across the region. South America recorded a peak of 20.8% in April 2022, Central America 19.2% in August, and the Caribbean 15.3% in December.

In January 2023, the regional food price index rose to 13.6% year-over-year, compared to an overall inflation rate of 8.5%. This gap hits hardest the poorest households, where a large share of income is spent on food.

The adjustment of labor incomes to this increase has been uneven. In Mexico, wages followed a trend similar to food prices, partially protecting purchasing power. But in most countries, real incomes contracted, reducing families’ ability to access sufficient and nutritious diets. This is not merely a short-term issue: it reflects structural weaknesses that amplify the impact of any external shock—whether economic, climatic, or geopolitical.

Although the post-pandemic expansionary policies, the war in Ukraine, rising fertilizer costs, disrupted trade routes, and extreme climate events created a “perfect storm” for food security, the problem runs deeper.

The region has been experiencing low economic growth, high dependence on commodity exports, and limited productive diversification. Added to this, there is a worrying decline in public and private investment in agriculture over the past two decades, weakening the sector’s productivity and resilience.

The SOFI 2025 warns that a 10% increase in food prices can lead to a 3.5% rise in moderate or severe food insecurity, a 4% increase in the case of women, and a 5% increase in the prevalence of acute malnutrition among children under five. In other words, food inflation is not just an economic issue: it has direct effects on the health, well-being, and future of millions of people.

On top of this is the high cost of a healthy diet. In 2024, more than 2.6 billion people worldwide could not afford it. In Latin America and the Caribbean, this diet costs 9% more than the global average, and in the Caribbean, 23% more.

In absolute terms, reaching a healthy diet requires USD 5.16 PPP per day, an amount out of reach for 182 million people in the region. This means that even in countries with low hunger prevalence, access to nutritious food remains a luxury for a large share of the population.

In light of this scenario, the SOFI 2025 outlines a roadmap to safeguard achievements and build resilience. First, strengthen social protection systems to cushion the impact of prices on the most vulnerable. Cash transfers, targeted subsidies, and school feeding programs can serve as effective shields if well-designed and delivered on time.

Second, transform and diversify agrifood systems to reduce dependence on a narrow set of commodities and strengthen local production of nutritious foods. This requires investments in logistics, storage, and transport infrastructure to reduce costs borne by final consumers.

Third, maintain open, predictable, and rules-based international trade. Trade restrictions exacerbate volatility and make food even more expensive, so they must be avoided, especially in times of crisis.

Fourth, strengthen market information and monitoring systems to anticipate inflationary pressures and enable rapid, evidence-based responses.

And fifth, promote climate resilience and macroeconomic stability through sustainable farming practices, expanded access to agricultural insurance, and effective risk management, alongside responsible fiscal and monetary policies.

Latin America and the Caribbean have shown that, with sound policies and political will, it is possible to reduce hunger even in an adverse global context. But food inflation reminds us that progress is fragile, and structural vulnerabilities can erode it quickly.

The region has the experience, capacity, and productive potential; what is needed now is strategic investment, regional coordination, and renewed commitment so that the right to adequate food ceases to be an unfulfilled goal and becomes a tangible reality for all.

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Produce trucks arrive at Lo Valledor, Chile’s largest wholesale market, where edible surplus is recovered for vulnerable communities; Latin America and the Caribbean lead hunger reduction, yet inequalities and malnutrition persist. Credit: Max Valencia / FAO

By Máximo Torero
SANTIAGO, Sep 3 2025 (IPS)

In perspective, good news: world hunger is beginning to decline. The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2025 (SOFI 2025) reported a drop in the proportion of people suffering from hunger, from 8.5% in 2023 to 8.2% in 2024. Latin America and the Caribbean has played a pivotal role in this progress.

In 2024, undernourishment in the region affected 5.1% of the population, down from 6.1% in 2020–2021. Moderate or severe food insecurity fell significantly, from 33.7% in 2020 to 25.2% in 2024, the largest reduction recorded worldwide.

Even after crises such as the pandemic, rising inflation, and extreme climate events, progress is possible through sustained public policies, cooperation, investment, and strengthening the resilience of agrifood systems

Five countries in the region—Chile, Costa Rica, Guyana, Uruguay and now Brazil— no longer appear on the hunger map, thanks to coordinated policies in the areas of economy, health, education, agriculture, and social protection, a viable formula to tackle the structural determinants of hunger.

These figures demonstrate that, even after crises such as the pandemic, rising inflation, and extreme climate events, progress is possible through sustained public policies, cooperation, investment, and strengthening the resilience of agrifood systems.

This positive development should not hide an uncomfortable truth: these advances are not reaching everyone equally. SOFI 2025 points out that while some countries are reducing hunger, others face challenges such as increasing child stunting, overweight, and obesity. In the region, 141 million adults are obese, and 4 million children under the age of five are overweight.

The analysis of specific cases highlights contrasts: Colombia reduced hunger to 3.9% with territorial policies and support for family farming, while the Dominican Republic cut the indicator by more than 17 percentage points in two decades with a multisectoral approach.

However, progress is not always uniform. Panama and Guatemala, although reducing hunger, continue to struggle with the challenge of malnutrition. Ecuador and El Salvador face a similar paradox: while hunger is decreasing, moderate and severe food insecurity is on the rise.

In Venezuela, hunger fell to 5.9%, but the pressure of food inflation persists. Mexico has reduced its figures to 2.7%, although adult overweight reached 36% in 2022, above the regional average. In Argentina, while hunger remains at low levels (3.4%), there has been an increase in child overweight and adult obesity.

Unfortunately, the Caribbean remains the greatest challenge. Some 17.5% of the population is undernourished, and the cost of a healthy diet reaches 5.48 PPP dollars per person per day. Haiti is facing one of the world’s most severe crises: 54.2% of its population suffers from hunger. This is not only an alarming statistic; it is an urgent call to strengthen greater cooperation and investment in the region’s most fragile context.

SOFI 2025 concludes that the countries that have reduced hunger under adverse circumstances in Latin America and the Caribbean share common approaches. These include strong and well-targeted social protection systems capable of cushioning crises; and integrated policies that strengthen local production, inclusive value chains, and market access, support family farming, and promote environmental sustainability.

Added to this are productive diversification, climate resilience measures to withstand extreme events, and open and stable trade to ensure supply and moderate price volatility; as well as coordination among institutions and levels of government to align investments, and data and monitoring systems that anticipate and respond quickly to crises.

These experiences show that a combination of political will, strategic investment, and evidence-based management can reverse hunger—even in an uncertain global environment.

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Sixth-grade students perform harvesting work in the Pedagogical school garden of the Mixed Rural Official School, located in El Horizonte, a small village in the municipality of Tejutla, San Marcos department, in southwestern Guatemala. Credit: Pep Bonet / FAO

By Máximo Torero
SANTIAGO, Jul 17 2025 (IPS)

In a region where hunger has cast a persistent shadow for generations, from the debt crises of the 1980s through the volatility of the 1990s to the recent shock of COVID-19, an unexpected and powerful development is now emerging: Latin America and the Caribbean is making significant progress in the global fight against hunger.

After years of fragile and uneven progress, the region is now showing, for the first time in over a decade, a clear and sustained trend: undernourishment has declined from 7% in 2021 to 6.2% in 2023, according to the latest State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2024 report by FAO and its partner agencies.

This outcome is no accident. It is the result of bold decisions, innovative public policies, and strong regional cooperation. The region is showing that with political will, social investment, and a forward-looking vision, hunger is not inevitable. It is a choice

This means that 4.3 million people are no longer suffering from hunger, and more than 37 million have overcome moderate or severe food insecurity. For the first time, Latin America and the Caribbean are below the global average on this key indicator.

This outcome is no accident. It is the result of bold decisions, innovative public policies, and strong regional cooperation. The region is showing that with political will, social investment, and a forward-looking vision, hunger is not inevitable. It is a choice.

During the pandemic, Latin American countries put their capacities to the test: over 460 social protection measures were activated to cushion the impact of economic collapse. Around 60% of the regional population received some form of assistance, from cash transfers to direct food distribution.

And when inflation severely impacted basic food prices, many governments reactivated these safety nets. Latin America did not merely endure—it learned, adapted, and protected.

One emblematic example of this transformation is the School Feeding Programs. More than 80 million children receive meals at school thanks to a policy that integrates nutrition, education, and rural development.

Through the Sustainable School Feeding Network (RAES), promoted by FAO and Brazil, more than 23,000 schools have been transformed into spaces of food security. Over 9,000 family farmers have been integrated into public procurement systems, strengthening local economies. This is not just social policy—it’s smart economic policy.

Initiatives like Hand-in-Hand also reflect a new way of thinking about development: identifying territories with agricultural potential that are trapped in poverty and building public-private investments to unlock that potential. It’s a commitment to ensure that no one, and no territory, is left behind.

Of course, challenges remain. The Caribbean continues to show high levels of undernourishment. Women and rural populations still face persistent inequalities. But this time, the region is not merely reacting—it is anticipating, planning, and executing. It is taking the lead.

And it is not alone. The G20 Global Alliance Against Hunger and Poverty, led by Brazil with technical support from FAO, offers a platform to bring these regional solutions to the world. Latin America is no longer just a recipient of aid—it is a source of global solutions.

In a world with enough resources to feed everyone, hunger is a tragedy that has been created. Latin America and the Caribbean are proving that it can be dismantled.

Today, the most unequal region in the world is delivering one of the most powerful lessons: with determination, innovation, and cooperation, Zero Hunger by 2030 is not a utopia. It is an achievable commitment. It is a future that has already begun.

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The gravity of the situation demands a holistic approach to tackle the hunger problem. We must take a human rights-based approach so as to apply human rights principles in our efforts. Credit: Patrick Zachmann/Magnum Photos/FAO

By Máximo Torero
ROME, Dec 7 2022 (IPS)

This year’s Human Rights Day marks the 74th year since the United Nations adopted the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, an international document that enshrines the rights and freedoms of all people. The right to food became a legal obligation for countries to promote and protect as part of the economic, social and cultural rights in 1966.

That fundamental right every one of us is entitled to — to be free from hunger — is at risk today like never before. Amid multiple global crises, such as climate change, pandemics, conflicts, growing inequalities and gender-based violence, more and more people are falling into the hunger trap.

There is enough food to feed everyone in the world today. What is lacking is the capacity to buy food that is available because of high levels of poverty and inequalities

As many as 828 million people faced hunger in 2021, an increase of 150 million more people since 2019, before the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic. Most recent projections indicate that more than 670 million people could still not have enough to eat in 2030.

It’s a far cry from the “zero hunger” target the world has ambitiously committed to less than a decade ago. It also shows just how deep inequalities run in societies across the world.

There is enough food to feed everyone in the world today. What is lacking is the capacity to buy food that is available because of high levels of poverty and inequalities. The war in Ukraine has made things worse. It shocked the global energy market, which has caused food prices to surge even more. This year alone saw an increase of $25 billion in food import bills of the world’s 62 most vulnerable countries, a 39% increase relative to 2020.

During the Covid-19 pandemic, a health crisis rapidly evolved into a food crisis, as the virus caused a shortage of farm workers and threatened to break down food supply chains. It taught us the importance of understanding the interlinked challenges of meeting growing food demand while protecting environmental, social and economic sustainability, as envisaged under the Sustainable Development Goals.

Eighty percent of the global poor live in rural areas and rely on farming to survive. Many of them — women, children, Indigenous Peoples and people with disability — don’t have access to food and are struggling with poor harvest, expensive seeds and fertilizers, and lack of financial services. They are directly affected by the risks and uncertainties facing our agrifood systems.

The gravity of the situation demands a holistic approach to tackle the hunger problem. We have to fix our broken agrifood systems to make them more inclusive, resilient and sustainable.

It means that we must take a human rights-based approach so as to apply human rights principles in our efforts. International frameworks provide legal and policy guidance to achieve universal, fundamental human rights.

The United Nations Committee on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights, for example, states that the right to food is indispensable for the fulfillment of other human rights. It emphasizes sustainability in that food must be accessible for both present and future generations. From availability, accessibility and healthy diets to food safety, consumer protection and the obligation of states to provide adequate food to their populations, it provides the foundation upon which to rebuild our agrifood systems.

Creating a coherent policy and legal framework around those core content will promote the right to food.

Since human rights are indivisible and interdependent, a human right cannot be enjoyed fully unless other human rights are also fulfilled. Advocating policies that promote other human rights — like health, education, water and sanitation, work and social protection — can positively impact the right to food as well.

Human Rights Day calls for dignity, freedom, and justice for all. Let us remember the critical role the right to food plays in achieving these important principles. And without these principles, we cannot reduce poverty or improve the well-being of all.

Food is fundamental to life. And it is key to strengthening our global efforts to find lasting solutions to today’s challenges.

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