While Iraq’s election was largely a domestic affair, efforts there to form a new government in the weeks after the March poll have been bogged down by a flurry of contradictory pulls and pressures by several international actors.

Though the United States has refrained from playing a direct role thus far, it is bound to have some bearing on the nature of the new administration. But Iran and Saudi Arabia have been the key players influencing the make-up of the new government, with Syria and Turkey also pitching in.

‘‘What we are witnessing in Iraq is two opposing agendas – led by Iran and Saudi Arabia – battling for supremacy,” according to Abdulkhaleq Abdulla, a professor of political science at the United Arab Emirates University.

‘‘In this radical clash, Iran is seeking a sectarian, weak and divided Iraq; while Saudi Arabia is attempting to realise the desire of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and other Arab countries for a secular, strong and united Iraq,” Abdulla said.

Following the announcement of poll results last Friday, Iran is busy working to ensure a Shiite-dominated and Tehran-friendly government, while Saudi Arabia is seeking the return to the helm of ‘Sunni- and Arab-friendly’ former Prime Minister Iyad Allawi, who is also a Shiite.

The Mar. 7 election yielded ‘secular’ Allawi’s Iraqi Nationalist Movement 91 seats, thus pushing the Iran-preferred State of Law party of Prime Minister Nuri Al Maliki to second spot with 89 seats.

But the seats that Allawi’s group won was too few to form a government itself, leading to a difficult process of forming coalitions based on ideological, ethnic, sectarian or pragmatic considerations.

At one point in late March, Allawi accused Iran of trying to block him from becoming prime minister.

Abdulla believes that ‘‘given the foothold that Iran has had in Iraq since the overthrow of Saddam Hussein, Tehran obviously has more cards at its disposal than Saudi Arabia.” Suggesting that the United States possessed more influence than Saudi Arabia to limit Iran’s role in Iraq, he told IPS, ‘‘In fact, the Arab Gulf countries are counting on the Americans to do the job for them.”

Apart from the age-old U.S.-Iran differences and the nuclear row playing out in Iraq, the ideological battle between the GCC countries and Iran is sectarian. While the GCC – Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates – is predominantly Sunni, Iran and Iraq are mostly Shiite.

Until Saddam Hussein – a Sunni – was ousted in 2003, Iraq served as a counterbalance against Iran. Since then, however, Iran has extended its influence not only in Iraq, but also in Lebanon, the Palestinian territories and even Yemen, much to the discomfort of the GCC countries and other members of the Arab world.

With Maliki banning hundreds of candidates, many of them Sunnis, from contesting the election because of their alleged ties to Saddam’s regime, the GCC countries now believe that with Allawi as prime minister, Iran’s regional and Shiite influence could be checked more effectively.

Irrespective of what the final outcome of this leadership crisis is, Abdulla says that the Iraq election result was a pleasant surprise to the Arab world. ‘‘The fractured mandate exposed the limits of Iran’s influence in Iraqi affairs. The electorate clearly demonstrated its preference for less of Iranian influence in Iraq’s society and politics,” he said.

The news of the surprisingly strong Sunni performance in Iraq election was received with much joy in the Arab world, with the influential Saudi newspaper Asharq Al Awsat labelling it ‘The Awakening of Moderation in Iraq’.

During the election campaign, Allawi’s visits to Arab countries, including Saudi Arabia, were branded as ‘Arabism’ by Maliki’s party and Arab countries were accused of interfering in Iraqi internal politics.

‘‘From the GCC and Arab perspective, it is not about Maliki or Allawi, it is more about a moderate leader, and a stable, secular and secure Iraq. The GCC countries, especially Saudi Arabia, would have remained neutral had Maliki been moderate,” Abdulla said.

Going by precedent, Allawi should be asked to form a government first. But Maliki has pointed to a court decision that, he claims, allows him to form a ‘‘national partnership” first and then stake the claim to form a coalition government.

‘‘Given the Shiite factor in Iran-Iraq relations, Tehran is bound to have a major role in Baghdad politics,” said Kuwaiti political analyst Ali Jaber Al Sabah. “But the fact that there is no unanimity between the two over who or which is the most authoritative voice in Shiite Islam is heartening.”

Debate continues over whether Grand Ayatollah Ali Al Sistani in Iraq’s Najaf or Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic in Iran Ayatollah Ali Khamenei or Qom bear more influence on Shiites. While the former has largely stayed out of politics, Khamenei has always remained very active.

Sistani has repeatedly refused to endorse any electoral coalition this time, after working towards a unified Shiite coalition in Iraq’s first national elections in 2005. This has given Sunnis a competitive chance to be active political players.

‘‘Till Sistani holds this line, Iraq’s democracy is safe and so are Arab interests to some extent. If he were to change his mind, it will be apocalyptic for both Iraq and the region,” Al Sabah added, indicating that Iran could go unchecked.

By N. Janardhan
DOHA, Jun 7 2009 (IPS)

While explaining the reasons for rapid economic growth during the last decade and showcasing their potential for future development, many developing countries in Asia and Latin America highlight the strength of their youth population. But, they are also increasingly becoming aware of their aging populations – which could be converted into a source of strength rather than a liability.

Though the developed countries are still home to the most rapidly ageing populations, developing countries are set to outpace this trend rapidly. It is estimated that by 2020, over 70 percent of the people aged 60 years and above will be in developing countries.

To highlight the issues related to this phenomenon and to encourage all relevant actors to take proactive action, the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) and the Doha International Institute for Family Studies and Development conducted a seminar on “Family Support Networks and Population Ageing.”

Speaking on the sidelines of the event, which was held in collaboration with Northwestern University and the United Nations Programme on Ageing, Jose Miguel Guzman underlined the efforts of UNFPA, the challenges it faces and its plans for the future.

IPS: Is population ageing a social, economic or cultural problem? JOSE MIGUEL GUZMAN: It is important to clarify that population ageing is not a problem in itself. It is a natural process. It is a consequence of an evolving societal process, which should be observed, understood and addressed. It is also wrong to identify ageing with issues linked to just old people or ‘grandparents’; it is an issue that should deal with all those who need help because of advancing age. Of course, this process has negative effects, but ageing is basically a result of demographic change and is rooted in positive developments like better healthcare leading to higher life expectancy and its ramifications.

While this process was gradual in the developed countries, it has been and will be rapid in the developing countries (for example, by 2050, China is expected to have over 300 million people above the age of 60 – which is almost as much as the entire current U.S. population). Further, unlike the developed countries, developing countries do not have a social security system to handle this increasing proportion of older people. In this sense, lack of effective remedial mechanisms or a safety net has been portrayed as a combination of social, economic and cultural problems – which societies and governments have not been ready to deal with, but should do so proactively to avoid adverse consequences.

IPS: What role has the UNFPA played to address these challenges? JMG: The common perception is that we are waking up to this phenomenon only in recent years. In reality, however, the efforts to counter its impact dates back to at least 1982 when the Vienna International Plan of Action on Ageing was adopted. Remember, it was a period when ageing was an issue only for developed countries – and a very distant reality for developing countries. This was followed by the Madrid Plan in 2002, which underlined the right of ageing populations to a ‘good’ life.

In between, the International Conference on Population and Development (ICPD) was held in 1994 at Cairo. The key actions for the further implementation of the Programme of Action of the ICPD was adopted by the United Nations General Assembly in 1999 – for addressing challenges of population ageing in the 21st century. UNFPA’s activities are conducted within this framework.

The focus since then has been on helping countries accept the recommendations, which all of them are not ready for. In particular, studies on ageing population are non-existent in many countries. China, Thailand and Cambodia, among others, are good examples of Asian countries that have conducted studies, as have some Latin American countries. The UNFPA is addressing this by encouraging more countries to start this important exercise as a first step.

Further, the UNFPA is helping countries develop national policies and laws dealing with this issue. For example, we helped the Dominican Republic government’s efforts to implement a law that existed in principle – but remained unimplemented for a decade.

We have also incorporated several programmes in Panama, Paraguay, Brazil and Mexico, among others. Though we do not have expertise in social security – which is a major issue – we are working with various governments to design and implement viable schemes.

IPS: Capacity building is considered a key to tackling this issue. How has this been coordinated and how successful has it been? JMG: The UNFPA approaches capacity building through research, training, data collection, as well as assistance in policy making and implementation of laws. For example, we were active in setting up the International Institute of Ageing in Malta. We also train people working on ageing-related policies in their countries and support the United Nations Programme on Ageing, which targets national focal points.

Capacity building assumes greater importance because it transcends availability of economic resources. Even high-income countries in the developing world, such as the Gulf countries in the Middle East, need to have trained people in healthcare and care-giving facilities, for example, to handle population ageing.

Since the use of care-giving institutions for the elderly is not very popular in many parts of Asia, the Middle East and South America, the challenge is to address this cultural factor. Among the alternatives that should be devised and considered are community-level programmes that have been developed by others. For example, some developed countries have conclusively proved that merely ‘talking’ to elders gives them a sense of participation – thereby keeping them in better health. They could also be engaged in activities that may or may not generate income, or be introduced to information technology tools, including access to e-mails, Internet and Web-based social networks. Such measures of integration into society through setting up of community rooms could be adapted in developing countries because they do not require too many resources.

IPS: What trends have UNFPA observed and encouraged in terms of collaborative efforts between various groups and countries? JMG: As part of our South-South cooperation efforts, the UNFPA is promoting sharing of experiences and practices between and among countries. We are encouraging comparative studies at the regional level and highlighting successful programmes in various countries so that others become aware of them and explore their adaption in some form or the other. For example, in Latin America, Cuba’s daycare centres for the elderly, Argentina’s community-level support systems and Brazil’s pension system in rural areas are all meritorious practices that are worth considering. We also think the efforts of the United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) in setting up conferences and training for regional governmental and intergovernmental groups are a good example.

At a micro level, we also serve as an advocacy group and support non- governmental organisations and their interaction at the national, regional and global levels.

IPS: Asian and Latin American countries figure high on the UNFPA’s agenda. What about Africa? JMG: Population ageing in Africa is not a pressing concern yet, but we are looking at future scenarios. UNFPA is already working on some integrated programmes related to HIV/AIDS and its impact on the role of grandparents in the upbringing of grandchildren.

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By N. Janardhan
DUBAI, May 12 2009 (IPS)

As Kuwaitis prepare to vote for a new parliament on May 16, trends suggest that while elections serve as a reminder of the Gulf country’s democratic traditions, the exercise is unlikely to end the political chaos that it was meant to quell.

After introducing a constitution and parliamentary democracy in 1962 – the first among the Arab Gulf countries – Kuwait’s National Assembly has been dissolved six times. The recent internal political bickering has been a severe strain on the system, with the country witnessing three parliaments and five governments since 2006 – the last one being in power for just two months.

In March, head of state Emir Sabah IV Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah dissolved the 10-month-old Majlis al-Umma following continued tension between the executive and legislative authorities – a symptom that has plagued the country’s development for years.

With neither the contestants – who are ordinary citizens – nor the ruling family willing to compromise and take enduring corrective measures, on- going campaigns indicate that opinions are more divided than they were during the 2008 election, which is likely to yield another fragmented parliament.

But, Bassem Al-Loughani, a media executive, who unsuccessfully contested in two previous elections, feels that dissolutions and elections actually strengthen the political system.

“Repeated elections are certainly more productive than the parliament being under prolonged suspension,” he said, adding that, “the Constitution was formulated after lengthy deliberations to suit the democratic aspirations of the people and the rulers, which should not be diluted.”

“We are bound to gradually learn from our mistakes. This process of trial and error is the best way forward. The region is not ready for radical changes to either subvert nor promote democracy,” Al-Loughani told IPS.

Since political parties are disallowed, several groups that represent business, Salafi, nationalist, tribal, as well as other religious and liberal interests, vye for representation and influence in the parliament. In recent years, the relative decline of the Islamic opposition – which served as a buffer against liberal forces – and the rise of tribalism have put the members of parliament and the ruling family-dominated government at loggerheads.

Although members of parliament have legislative and monitoring powers, they have no influence over the composition of the cabinet, which comprises several ruling-family members and is headed by one as well. However, since MPs can grill ministers and vote them out of office, they have been in direct confrontation with the ruling family.

The recent crisis is also partly blamed on the differences within the ruling family. The prevailing tension has resulted in a volley of insults to the ruling family, including challenging the authority of the emir – which led to the arrest of at least four candidates during the last six weeks.

While dissolving the parliament, the emir accused it of abusing constitutional powers and said he would not “hesitate to take any step to safeguard the country’s security.”

Reacting to the interpretation of the emir initially considering unconstitutionally suspending parliament for a prolonged duration, independent political analyst Ali Jaber Al-Sabah told IPS, “Such a move would have been hasty and counterproductive. The focus should be on correction of the inherent problems in the system, not postponing them indefinitely.”

After the last date for withdrawal of candidates on May 8, only 211 candidates – including 36 members from the dissolved parliament – are left in the fray for the 50 national assembly seats. This is markedly lower than 275 hopefuls last year and over 300 contestants in 2006.

Further, only 16 women remain in the race, the lowest since women were granted political rights in 2005 and allowed to vote and contest in 2006. Though a woman is yet to be directly elected to the national assembly, an average of 27 women contested during the last two elections.

However, despite the Islamist Salafi movement calling for a boycott of women candidates on the grounds that public offices are reserved only for men, observers are hopeful that more than one woman will cross the threshold this time.

In the Kuwaiti system, each of the five constituencies elects 10 members, with each voter casting a maximum of four votes.

The climate of confrontation has led many to question if it is still the ideal democratic example in the region.

In reaction, analyst Al-Sabah, who is also a member of the ruling family, says, “Those who mock the Kuwaiti parliamentary system are not aware of the deep-rooted tradition of democracy in the country. Public participation is so deeply entrenched in the society that even in the absence of formal institutions, the democratic spirit manifests itself vibrantly through various new media channels like Internet, weblogs and short message service.”

Such is the impact of media in Kuwait that at least five television channels were started to specifically cover the election.

Media executive Al-Loughani, also an author of several books in Arabic, including one that translates into English as “Kuwait: Gone with the Wind,” pointed to a controversial solution to the crisis. “The ruling family should abdicate its executive role. The prime ministerial and cabinet posts should be managed by ordinary Kuwaiti citizens who are elected as members of the parliament. The ruling family, whose contributions are recognised and respected, should serve as mere figureheads and perform an advisory role,” Al-Loughani recommended.

This suggestion resonates with demands from many for a new constitution that would make Kuwait a true constitutional state. But it is unlikely that the ruling family would effect any change in the prevailing system of “half democracy” in the near future.

**Not for publication in ITALY.

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