I recently received an extraordinary email from a troubled young Kashmiri in Srinagar. Days before the Indian authorities turned off the internet, Saif (not his real name) had watched on YouTube the 45-minute video documentary Crossing the Lines — Kashmir, Pakistan, India that I had helped make in 2004 and mostly agreed with its non-partisan narrative. A nationalist boy turned stone thrower, Saif is outraged by the brutality of Indian occupation. He is fortunate, he says. His 14-year-old second cousin lost his left eye to pellets.

Pervez Hoodbhoy

Saif continues to fight India but is worried. Protesters of his father’s generation were largely nationalist, but today’s are a mixed bunch. IS and Pakistani flags are often unfurled after Friday prayers, azadi demonstrations resound with calls for an Islamic state in Kashmir, and Nasim Hijazi’s cartoon history of Muslim rule in India Aur Talwar Toot Gayee is serialised by local Urdu papers. Significantly, Burhan Wani was laid in the grave by a crowd of thousands, wrapped in a Pakistani flag, and celebrated as a martyr rather than Kashmiri freedom fighter.

Why this change? The present government — Narendra Modi’s — surely stands guilty. By reducing space for democratic discourse, it promotes radicalisation. Unlike Vajpayee’s accommodative politics, India offers little beyond the iron fist and draconian laws such as AFSPA. The BJP-PDP alliance — shaky to start with — is almost over as each blames the other for the two per cent voter turnout in last month’s by-elections. Hindutva’s religiosity is displacing Nehru’s secularism all across India, and Indian democracy is yielding to Hindu majoritarian rule.

Kashmiri nationalists must realise the grave dangers of giving more space to religious extremists.

But blaming Modi is half an explanation, perhaps even less. In Palestine, after decades of struggle against Israeli occupation, the secular PLO lost out to the religious radicalism of Hamas. In Arab countries, young Muslims dream of fighting infidels and dying as martyrs. In Pakistan, the celebrated army operations Raddul

Fasaad and Zarb-i-Azb target armed militants fighting for a Sharia state. Last week, the Higher Education Commission showed its concern by convening a meeting of 60 university vice chancellors in Islamabad on rising extremism in Pakistani campuses.

Extremism has further complicated an already complicated Kashmir situation. What now? For long, Kashmiris, Pakistanis, and Indians have wagged fingers at the other for the 100,000 lives lost over three decades. Where lies the future? Does any solution exist?

Read: Diary of a Kashmir curfew

A short retreat into mathematics: some equations indeed have solutions even if they need much effort. But other equations can logically be shown to have no solution – nothing will ever work for them. There is still a third type: that where solutions are possible but only under very specific conditions.

Kashmir is not of the first category. Everything has been tried. Delhi and Islamabad have created clients among the Valley’s leaders and political parties, and subversion is a widely used instrument. But they too have turned out to be useless. Elections and inducements have also failed to produce a decisive outcome, as have three Pakistan-India wars. A fourth war would likely be nuclear.

All parties stand guilty. India, under various Congress governments, had once projected itself as a secularist democracy distinct from an Islamic, military-dominated Pakistan. It appeared for that reason to be preferable, but in practice its unconscionable manipulation of Kashmiri politics led to the 1989 popular uprising, sparking an insurgency lasting into the early 2000s. When it ended 90,000 civilians, militants, police, and soldiers had been killed. Remembered by Kashmiri Muslims for his role in the 1990 Gawkadal bridge massacre, Governor Jagmohan received the Padma Vibhushan last year.

Pakistan tried to translate India’s losses into its gains but failed. It soon hijacked the indigenous uprising but the excesses committed by Pakistan-based mujahideen eclipsed those of Indian security forces. The massacres of Kashmiri Pandits, targeting of civilians accused of collaborating with India, destruction of cinema houses and liquor shops, forcing of women into the veil, and revival of Shia-Sunni disputes, severely undermined the legitimacy of the Kashmiri freedom movement.

Pakistan’s ‘bleed India with a thousand cuts’ policy is in a shambles today and jihad is an ugly word in the world’s political lexicon. Say what you will about ‘Dawn Leaks’, but Pakistani diplomats who represent Pakistan’s position in the world’s capitals know the world doesn’t care about Kashmir. How else to explain Prime Minister Modi receiving Saudi Arabia’s highest civilian award from King Salman bin Abdul Aziz?

If Kashmir is ever to have a solution — ie belong to the third type of math problem — then all three contenders will need to rethink their present positions.

Thoughtful Indians must understand that cooling Kashmir lies in India’s hands, not Pakistan’s. By formally acknowledging Kashmir as a problem that needs a political solution, using humane methods of crowd control, and releasing political prisoners from Kashmiri jails, India could move sensibly towards a lessening of internal tensions. Surely, if India considers Kashmiris to be its citizens then it must treat them as such, not as traitors deserving bullets. Else it should hand Kashmir over to Kashmiris — or Pakistan.

Thoughtful Pakistanis must realise that their country’s Kashmir-first policy has brought nothing but misery all around. Using proxies has proven disastrous. A partial realisation has led to detaining of LeT and JeM leaders, but Pakistan’s army must crack down upon all Kashmir-oriented militant groups that still have a presence on Pakistani soil. Such groups are a menace to Pakistan’s society and armed forces, apart from taking legitimacy away from those fighting Indian rule.

Thoughtful Kashmiri nationalists — like Saif — must recognise the grave dangers of giving more space to religious extremists. Their struggle should be for some form of pluralistic entity – whether independent or under nominal Indian or Pakistani control. That entity must assure personal and religious freedoms. An ISIS type state with its cruel practices makes mockery of the very idea of azadi and would pave the way for Kashmir’s descent into hell.

Such rethinking would clear the road to peace through negotiations which, though narrowed, still remains open. Every conflict in history, no matter how bitter, has ultimately been resolved. In Kashmir’s case whether this happens peacefully, or after some apocalypse, cannot be predicted.

The author teaches mathematics and physics in Lahore and Islamabad.
Published in Dawn, May 20th, 2017

This story was originally published by Dawn, Pakistan

Donald Trump`s presidency is the tip of the spear that xenophobic white supremacists are using to reconquer America. A Republican-dominated Senate and the House of Representatives may dif fer with Trump on smaller matters but will support him on core issues. The alt-right`s goal is to barrel over traditional American values of freedom and generosity, terrorise Muslim and immigrant families into leaving, and remove the checks and balances that have preserved the country`s openness to new peoples and ideas.

The future is uncertain. An unhinged, foulmouthed, openly racist, narcissistic casino owner is not just president but is also commander-in-chief of the world`s most powerful military. Under him the United States could become the Fourth Reich a reincarnation of a Nazi-like Germany. Let`s note that Trump is only four weeks into his presidency with 98pc still to go. Yale history professor Tim Snyder says that American democracy has less than a year to live. He predicts that the Madisonian republic, founded in 1789 and renewed in 1865, could die.

But whatever ultimately happens, something is definitely slowing down and even stopping the right wing`s mad charge to topple all that is good and decent about America. What? First, it`s the American people. Most of the articulated opposition comes from well-educated Americans brought up on decent, enlightened values learned in school. Tens of thousands have stormed congressional district of fices and town hall meetings to vent at Trump`s regressive agenda on climate change, banning Muslims and Mexicans, increasingincomeinequality, and denialof women`s reproductive rights. One in three Californians want their state to leave the US legally and peacefully in 2019. Cal-Exit may not actually happen, but it shows how upset Americans are.

The pace of resistance is astonishing. Back in 1970, as a student in Boston, I had travelled to Washington to join a crowd of 50,000 people protesting America`s war against Vietnam. It had taken about 10 years of patient organising to achieve this size. But last month, with barely a few weeks ofeffort, an estimated 3.3 million angry people mostly educated women appalled at Trump`s misogyny took to the streets. In Washington D.C. itself there were 500,000, significantly more than the estimated attendance at Trump`s inauguration the day earlier.

Second, Trump faces an obstinate, uncompliant judiciary. He fired Sally Yates, acting attorney general, for declaring illegal his executive order blocking Muslims. Subsequently, a lower court reaf firmed her decision, which was further upheld by three judges from the San Francisco-based 9th US Circuit Court of Appeals. Thousands of barred travellers could thereaf ter enter the US.

Faced with defeat, Trump retreated and says he will issue a new executive order. But, unless he replaces most of the judges, that too will f ail. Under a system of checks and balances, an American president appoints judges but courts can declare his orders unconstitutional.

Third, a free American press is fiercely resisting.

Trump says that the media specifically naming CNN, ABC, CBS, and the New York Times -is acting as an opposition party. Last Friday he tweeted that they are not just his enemies but also `the enemy of the American people. SICK`.

This outburst comes because the press has exposed Trump`s shady business dealings, exaggerations on the size of the inauguration crowd, promotion of his daughter`s fashion business,lewd remarks on women, help received from Russia for getting elected, and the dubious character of his political henchmen. All this must hurt, but what gets Trump apoplectic are mocking parodies on TV channels and YouTube videos that feature impersonations of Trump and his spokespersons. Such lampooning weakens his authority by depriving him of the gravitas that other US presidents have enjoyed.

This is music to the ears of most Pakistanis and a relief to much of the world. But now we need to compare this with our own score card on the above three counts.

Media: Yes, Pakistan`s media is free free to slam politicians and elected governments on evening talk shows. This is, of course, as it should be. Butnone can touch generals and mullahs. If you want to hide in cyber space and still try then be prepared for abduction, declared as missing, and perhaps returned as four of the five bloggers are known to have been but terrified into silence.

America has Fox but also other channels;Pakistan has only numerous versions of Fox. America has Rush Limbaugh, Ann Coulter, and Glenn Beck among others who spew stupidity and ignorance, lie, and pander to the lowest level of society. But, for fear of lawsuits, they still cannot match the infinitely more degraded, life-threatening, fact-less nonsense spewed by some highly popular Pakistani anchors.

Judiciary:Intheory,Pakistan`stooisindependent of the executive branch. But nobody believes this, and nobody should. If it was true, Asif Ali Zardari would have long been in jail, Panamagate would have been settled, and the grant of land to generals could be legally challenged.

Of course, we have our heroes. Justice of the Supreme Court Qazi Faez Isa single-handedly put together the detailed Quetta terrorism inquiry commission report that convincingly indicts the interior minister for improper behavior. But nothing has happened yet and nothing will. In contrast, a mere US sessions judge could stump Trump and overturn his executive Muslim-ban order.

People: I cannot remember the last time when Pakistanis rallied together for a cause that was not specifically Muslim. Of course, Kashmir, Palestine, Bosnia and Myanmar are all worthy causes, but they are Muslim causes. In contrast, the thousands of Americans who stormed airports last month to protest Trump`s Muslim ban were there to protect a principle that all peoples of all religions and ethnicities should have exactly the same rights.

Perhaps someday we too will learn to respect people for what they are -humans and fight for their rights also, not just our own. Perhaps an Ahmadi, Hindu, Christian or Parsi will be allowed to run for president of Pakistan or become the army chief.

Until that time, in moral terms, we cannot really protest where Trump wants to take America. • The writer teaches physics in Lahore and Islamabad.

This story was originally published by Dawn, Pakistan

On this very day, exactly 18 years ago, riotous celebration erupted after Pakistan tested its nuclear weapons. Just 17 days earlier, India had experienced a similar moment. Then, one year later, Pakistan once again saw mass jubilation during the officially sponsored Youm-i-Takbir. But, in sharp contrast, today`s nuclear celebrations are barely audible. One hopes that this signals increased national maturity and sobriety.

From Pakistan`s perspective, its nuclear weapons have already delivered by reducing India`s willingness and ability to use its superior conventional military capability. Indian restraint during the 1999 Kargil war, the subsequent failure of Indian efforts at coercive diplomacy in 2001-02, and the caution exercised after the 2008 Mumbai attack attest to the central lesson of the nuclear age it is not worth going to war against a nuclear-armed adversary on anything of less than national life-or-death importance.

That`s the success part. What of the rest? As readers will surely recall, there were many expectations that went well beyond matching India`s bombs. Lest they be forgotten, let`s recall what they were and review the report card.

First, the bomb was supposed to ensure Pakistan`s security. Post Chagai, it was common to claim that `none may now dare look at Pakistan with evil eye`.

But this was shallow rhetoric. In 2016, Pakistan is threatened not so much by India as by a multitude of Islamist militant groups that are waging bloody war against our state and society. In the last decade, the Pakistan army has lost more soldiers to terrorism than in all four wars against India. Nuclear bombs are useless against terrorists.

The bombs proved equally useless in stopping the drone that took out Mullah Mansour a few days ago, or the team of SEALs that hunted down Osama bin Laden in Abbottabad. Apart from issuing sullen remarks about the violation of its sovereignty, Pakistan could do nothing to challenge American power.

Second, ever since the first bomb was ready (1987), it was hoped that the bomb would resolve the Kashmir dispute in Pakistan`s favour. Protected by nuclear weapons, Pakistan could support militant groups to wage a low-cost war against Indian forces based inKashmir, raising the cost of Indian occupation.

For fear of triggering nuclear confrontation, India would be deterred from launching cross-border retaliatory raids. The term `nuclear flashpoint` for Kashmir reverberated in the international press.

The hope here was that Western intermediaries would step in and force India to the bargaining table.

It didn`t work. After an initial period of worry, international interest in intervening in the Kashmir dispute waned. The UN no longer pays any attention to the matter. Today, the wisest option for Pakistan would be to stick to its officially declared policy of providing moral and diplomatic support but no clandestine military support to those Kashmiris who bravely resist Indian occupation. Else, how can it reasonably protest Indian support to Baloch separatists? Condemn Kulbhushan Jadhav and his associates? Third, the euphoria created by the nuclear tests was expected to create a new national spirit. The euphoric press compared this historical moment with the birth of Pakistan in 1947. TV programmes of that time show Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif congratulating cheering citizens. To bear the pain of Western sanctions, he promised strict personal and public austerity. Henceforth grand public buildings including the prime minister`s house would be converted into schools and women`s universities.

Long before Panama, this became unbelievable.

The fact is that such euphoric moments are strictly temporary. Once the excitement of the blast fades, harsh realities inevitably set in. May 28 did not end Pakistan`s struggle to discover an identity and national purpose or help it overcome deep provincial, religious, ethnic, and linguistic divisions.

Beyond hoping for Chinese largesse, it does not have a programme for economic growth to meet the needs of an exploding population.

Fourth, now a country that was both nuclear and Muslim, Pakistan hoped to emerge as a leader among Islamic countries, standing tall alongside the much older, more established, and much richer Muslim nations. It also sought to become their defender.

The notion of creating a common defence for the ummah was vigorously promoted by numerousIslamist parties in Pakistan, most notably the Jamaat-i-Islami. Carrying cardboard replicas of the Shaheen and Ghauri missiles through the streets, they claimed the bomb was for Islam rather than just Pakistan. Much of the media was also enthusiastic about expanding the appeal of the bomb.

Indeed, Muslim nations as diverse as Iran and Saudi Arabia were delighted at Pakistan`s success.

Iranian foreign minister Kamal Kharazi flew over to congratulate Pakistan. Saudi Arabia went further; it provided Pakistan with 50,000 barrels per day of free oil to help it cope with the international sanctions triggered by nuclear tests.

But those moments have long passed. The notion of the ummah has evaporated as Muslims fight Muslims in Syria, Iraq, Yemen, Turkey and Libya.

Nothing suggests that this is temporary. Iran and Saudi Arabia are at daggers drawn, and the Pakistan-Iran relationship simmers with hostility.

Today, Israel and Saudi Arabia are virtual allies with Pakistan drawing ever closer to the latter. The notion that Pakistan`s bomb could be directed against Israel has become unbelievable.

Fifth, and finally, the bomb was supposed to transform Pakistan into a technologically and scientifically advanced country. Amazingly, both India and Pakistan forgot something basic making nuclear weapons many decades after they were first made is a highly unconvincing claim to technological prowess. Even poor North Korea, known for its cartoon-boy dictator but not for new science has conducted four nuclear tests and boasts of ICBM capability.

The atomic bomb was supposed to create a state of bliss. Unsurprisingly that didn`t happen. Indeed, Pakistan`s security problems cannot be solved by expanding its missile fleet, buying more F-16s, or developing tactical nuclear weapons. Instead, the way forward lies in building a sustainable and active democracy, an economy for peace rather than war, a federation in which provincial grievances can be effectively resolved, elimination of the feudal order, and creating a tolerant society that respects the rule oflaw.

The writer teaches physics in Lahore and Islamabad.

This story was originally published by Dawn, Pakistan