Bangladesh in recent years started drawing global attention for its success in emerging out of poverty through economic growth and agricultural development. From early 2000 until 2023, while population growth continued to decline from 1.2 in 2013 to 1.03 in 2023, this growth has been the powerful driver of poverty reduction since 2000. Indeed, agriculture accounted for 90 percent of the reduction in poverty between 2005 and 2010 (World Bank).

Saifullah Syed

Along with agricultural development, buoyed by booming export, (led by the garment sector) and remittances, foreign reserves went past $30 billion.

With resources in hand and confidence to move forward the country launched mega infrastructure projects, such as huge bridges, deep sea port, urban metro transit, highways and modernization of airports; mega power projects including a nuclear power plant.

And then came the ‘deluge’ of corruption and the ‘rot’ of the basic moral fabric of the government, led by Sheikh Hasina, the daughter of the “Father of the Nation” and head of the Awami League (AL), the party that brought us independence. While the AL led government publicly started publicizing its achievements and successes, it was simultaneously systematically looting the country through corrupt practices, crony capitalism and outright theft through the banking system by forcefully appointing their henchmen onto the board of directors. Sheikh Hasina’s government further alienated the youth ‘by limiting access to government jobs to the supporters of her party by implementing a quota system.

Consequently, the students rebelled and overthrew her government and installed an Interim government with Nobel Laureate Professor Mohammed Yunus at its head. Everyone heaved a sigh of relief and hoped for a better future for the country guided by the most distinguished Nobel laureate, son of the soil.

Prof. Yunus found a country politically broken, financially drained without foreign currency reserve and a banking sector with empty coffers due to politically motivated loans to the AL leaders and their cronies without any hope of ever recovering them.

Prof. Yunus brought in several advisers to run the administration and focused on (a) stabilizing the financial sector ; and (b) reforming the institutions and the constitutions, assuming that weak institutions and the existing constitution enabled the AL government to loot the country dry.

He appointed very competent, well known and experienced economists at the head of the central Bank and the Ministry of Finance and they very successfully stabilized the financial market.

However, his attempts to reform, as well as his lackluster performance as a leader to guide the country and the reform process are pushing the country further into turmoil and towards a downward spiral. The hope that a Nobel laureate will save the country is turning into a nightmare!

Personal leadership of the Interim Government ?

Though widely respected, as a leader of the Interim government Prof. Yunus has given no indication of what he stands for. The civil society and the general public are totally confused by his failure to stand up for basic mainstream Bengali values, including women’s right and freedom, organization of cultural and musical events, support for the minorities and ethnic communities. His administration did not support the “Women’s Commission Report” without ever giving any adequate justification.

None can really explain why he failed to stand up in public and as the head of the government for the basic values he fought for as a leader of Grameen bank and cherishes in private. May be one day his memoirs will explain that.

The Interim government also failed to address education and research. It allocated Tk 95,645 crore (approx. $900+ million USD) for education in FY2025-26, representing about 11% of the total budget and 1.69 % of GDP, well below UNESCO recommendations (4-6% GDP). It is one of the lowest in the history of the country. The whole country was expecting eagerly that he, being a professor and a Nobel laureate, would start reversing the trend of low allocation for education. Instead he lowered it even further than before.

In addition, the business community is exasperated by lack of participation in the interim government and its failure to address closure of factories of politically tainted people affecting export and increasing unemployment. There was also inadequate consultation before ratifying the ILO conventions on labour rights under international pressure.

Flawed reform and governance conundrum ?

While the interim Government is committing most of its time discussing reforms of the institutions and the constitution, hardly a day goes by without some report of illicit land grabbing, police harassment of ordinary people, bribery and extortion in every government office, streets and local markets and transport hubs. There are wide spread arsons and killings. The security and law and order situation in the country is worse than ever before.

Reform before governance’ emphasizes making systemic improvements (like updating laws, processes, structures) before fully implementing the laws and rules to ensure that the foundation is sound, fair, and efficient.

However, interim government’s decision to prioritize was not based on any analysis demonstrating that there were flaws in the constitution, or in the judiciary etc. that allowed the last government to rob the country. Besides, the agitation that drove Sheikh Hasina’s government from power was motivated by lack of access to jobs, corruption and extortion, land grabbing, police brutality and political oppression. All these issues are related to governance. Reform was not on their agenda.

Prof. Yunus and his interim government are to be commended for their good intentions in seeking to carry out reforms that would forestall a return to the bad old days of the last government that looted the country. But they should have understood that reform may have been necessary but not sufficient.

Poor governance and lack of capacity to govern by the established institutions of Bangladesh and its bureaucracy is clear to the entire nation and the international community. Just look at any public institutions (from the airport to embassies, union parishad to district administration, telecom and power) the situation is blatantly visible to all. No one can get anything done without going through harassment, hustles, often paying a bribe or showing authority or power. People want relief from such miserable governance and administration and not Reform.

Fixing of the financial sector was indeed one of Prof Yunus’s government’s big achievement. However, though people feared that the financial and the political crisis would derail agricultural growth and then the rest of the economy along with it, fortunately that did not happen. Overall agricultural growth of the country kept its pace and total food grain production did not decline. Overall growth of value added in agriculture remained at more than 3 percent (Bureau of Statistics, Bangladesh).

Continued and sustained agricultural growth provided the life line to industries and the garment sector in particular to withstand the financial crisis. Overall, Bangladesh’s total exports expanded 24.9 % YoY in Nov 2024, compared with an increase of 25.7 % YoY in the previous month. Garment exports surged 12% in first 7 months of FY24–25, (Export Promotion Bureau of Bangladesh).

Likewise fixing the financial sector did not fix the economy. Even with a stronger financial sector, poor governance and inadequate attention to the business community have affected the real economy. Poverty is on the rise, export and agricultural productivity are declining. The country is now staring at downhill spiral both economically and politically.

Consequences of the failures of the Interim Government to Govern ?

The most significant consequence is that by offering no alternative to better governance than the regime that was over thrown, the people are likely to turn towards the Islamic parties, which are, as of now not tainted by corruption in power and poor governance. There is a high probability that they may win. People are tending to believe that the Islamic parties will provide better governance and will be less corrupt.

The only factor that may not bring them to power is the fear that some of their values related to women and culture do not correspond to mainstream Bengali values.

The main stream opposition party, Bangladesh National Party (BNP) is also hoping to win big as they see no clear opponent. This party, however, is also accused of committing crimes, extortion and corruption when it was in power. The founder of BNP is linked to the cruel murder of Sheikh Mujib and the members of his family, and the current leader of BNP is accused of masterminding the grenade attack aimed at killing Sheikh Hasina at an AL rally on 21st August 2004. Hasina survived the attack, but it killed 24 people and injured about 200. Though acquitted, under the Interim Government, the accusations and BNP’s corruption and extortion by its cadres are lingering in public minds.

In spite of these short comings and the relative strength of the Islamic parties, the BNP is very optimistic of winning. They believe that the minorities, the large section of the freedom fighters, the left leaning parties and the secular urban women will never vote for the Islamist parties, come what may. However, given the current volatile political climate anything is possible.

In a sense the interim Government of Prof. Yunus is making it inevitable for the people to choose between: “good governance” vs. “upholding socio cultural Bengali values”. Which one will win is yet to be seen. The future of the country now critically hinges on the forthcoming election in February 2026 and the kind of leadership it will produce. Either way the people will be the losers – either they will get BNP, a corrupt party very similar to the ousted party AL with a history of bad governance or the Islamists which may turn out to be a threat to main stream Bengali values.

The Author was a freedom fighter during the war of liberation of Bangladesh and Former Chief of Policy Assistance Branch for Asia and the Pacific of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO).

IPS UN Bureau

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The recent student movement in Bangladesh demanding reform of the quota system for public jobs led a ‘march of the people’ towards the official Residence of the Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina on 5th of August 2024. The security forces of the country, including the army, refused to open fire on the marching crowd. Fearing an imminent attack on her residence without the protection of the army, Sheikh Hasina fled to neighbouring India after being in power continuously since 2008. With Sheikh Hasina fleeing to India on 5th of August 2024 her authoritarian and corrupt rule of 15 years just melted away.

Saifullah Syed

Delving deep into the distressed financial sector, the White Paper on “the state of Bangladesh Economy” prepared by a Committee of Experts appointed by the Interim Government, revealed that: between 2009 and 2023, illicit financial outflows averaged $16 billion annually– more than double the combined value of net foreign aid and FDI inflows. Politically influenced lending practices left the banking sector with empty coffers. Recognised non-performing loans (NPLs) alone increased nearly ten times since 2010, reaching an equivalent of 7 percent of GDP at end-June 2024.

Widespread concerns were raised about what will happen to the country in the face of such a deep financial meltdown. Will all its economic achievements of the last decade, including reduction of poverty, enhanced food security and reduced dependency on foreign aid, as well as nascent growth of industries, particularly the garment sector, melt away with the political and financial meltdown of the country ?

The political situation remains very uncertain in spite of all the good will and good leadership of Nobel Laureate Prof. Yunus. What may happen politically is very difficult to assess as Bangladesh is now engulfed in the global geo-political quagmire. Internal forces are no longer completely independent to decide the future course of the country without external influence and pressure.

Fortunately, however, the economic situation, particularly the real sectors of the economy remains resilient, strong and thriving and providing relative calm and stability in the rural areas of what is predominantly a rural economy.

Why are the real sectors of the economy are resilient and thriving ?

Unsurprisingly it emerges that the stability and resilience of the economy to withstand socio-political and financial crisis is primarily due to the country’s success in: modernizing and developing its agriculture sector.

It is well established in the literature that every country that has made the transition to development, reduced poverty and increased food security, has done so through high agricultural growth. Empirical evidence shows that higher levels of economic development are positively correlated with agricultural development, particularly with improved efficiency of the sector in terms of land and labour productivity, aggregate value added and capital/labour ratio.

The recent evidence from Bangladesh now also demonstrates that a dynamic agriculture sector also assures: stability at the times of political and financial crisis.

Bangladesh agriculture value added grew at more than 3 percent since the early 2000 till 2023, while population growth continued to decline from 1.2 in 2013 to 1.03 in 2023. This growth has been the powerful driver of poverty reduction since 2000. Indeed, agriculture accounted for 90 percent of the reduction in poverty between 2005 and 2010 (World Bank).

Despite frequent natural disasters and population growth food grain production tripled between 1972 and 2014, from 9.8 to 34.4 million tons. As a result, from being completely dependent on foreign food aid it became almost self-sufficient in basic food and net ODA, as a percentage of GNI fell from 8 in 1977 to less than 1 in 2023 (World Bank).

In addition to contributing to food security and poverty reduction sustained agricultural growth also contributed to growth of manufacturing and services, including now the widely acclaimed garment sector. Low wages, primarily due to agriculture contributing to lower cost of living, fuelled its growth. According to the World Data Info: cost of living (inclusive of rent) in Vietnam and China, the competitors of the Bangladesh garment industry, is 53 and 43 percent respectively higher than in Bangladesh.

People feared that the financial and the political crisis will derail agricultural growth and then the rest of the economy along with it. However, overall agricultural growth of the country kept its pace and total food grain production did not decline. In fact milled rice production increased to 36.6 million tons from 36.3 in 2022/23. Likewise, Rice yield in 2024/25 increased to 4.82 t/ha from 4.70 in 2022/23. Overall growth of value added in agriculture remained at more than 3 percent (Bureau of Statistics).

Continued and sustained agricultural growth provided the life line to industries and the garment sector in particular to withstand the financial crisis. During January 2025, ready-made garment exports reached $3.664 billion, a 5.57 per cent rise from $3.471 billion in the same month of the previous year. Knitwear garment exports rose by 6.62 per cent to $1.850 billion, and woven garments increased by 4.52 per cent to $1.814 billion in the same month.

Overall, Bangladesh’s total exports expanded 24.9 % YoY in Nov 2024, compared with an increase of 25.7 % YoY in the previous month. Garment exports surged 12% in first 7 months of FY24–25, (Export Promotion Bureau of Bangladesh).

Agricultural growth, increased export and continued flow of remittances have helped the country to face the financial meltdown and given the interim Government led by Prof. Younus enough breathing space to search and mediate a solution to the political crisis.

Why did Bangladesh agriculture remained so resilient during this political and financial crisis ? What can we learn from it ?

Bangladesh agriculture development policy framework and plans has benefited from a national consensus and it was backed up by all the previous Governments, since its independence in 1971. This ensured continuity of a sound and consistent policy framework with focus on substantial public investments in technology, rural infrastructure and human capital. As a result, its total factor productivity (TFP), at 1.23, is more than the global average of 1.18.

The country’s agriculture focused on achieving self-sufficiency, and is dominated by the production of rice, largely by smallholder farmers. Production is slowly moving towards greater diversification with high-value crops such as fruits and vegetables, livestock, and fisheries, as demand has increased. However, the overall share of these products remains small, relative to rice. Irrigation has been important for expanded rice production. Education, research, and extension—as well as other facilitators, such as financial investors—are focused on supporting rice production.

The traditional public sector institutions, at national and local level, were primary drivers of setting policy and building the enabling environment, as well as to promote information and communications technology (ICT) with digitalization to overcome traditional constraints (e.g., market and weather information).

All development plans and strategies recognized the importance of modernizing the agriculture sector, developing further resilience to climate hazards, and managing natural resources sustainably. It emphasised that conscious management of key natural resources—land, water, forestry, natural habitats, and air—is crucial for a resilient economy.

However, Bangladesh agriculture sector is now facing a new challenge to diversify its production in keeping with changing demands for diversified food and agri-products, fuelled by increased income of the population. How will it manage to maintain its level of rice production and meet the challenge of diversification, with very limited cultivable land, is yet to be seen.

The author is a former UN official who was Chief of Policy Assistance Branch for Asia and the Pacific of the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO).

IPS UN Bureau

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The student movement in Bangladesh demanding reform of the quota system for public jobs was the straw that broke the camel’s back. The Awami League (AL) government led by Sheikh Hasina, in power continuously since 2008, collapsed on 5th August 2024. With Sheikh Hasina fleeing to India and leaving the country in disarray, her authoritarian rule of 15 years just melted away.

Saifullah Syed

She developed the personality cult of her father, Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, who led the country to independence in 1971 and who was brutally murdered on 15th of August 1975. The personality cult was so perverse that liberation of the country was attributed to Sheikh Mujib alone and all the other stalwarts of the liberation war and her party were ignored. Everything of significance happening in the country was attributed to his wisdom and foresight alone and were often named after him. Every Institution, including schools across the country and embassies around the world were obliged to host a “Mujib corner” to display his photo, and books about him only.

Yet, no political party, including the leading opposition Bangladesh National Party (BNP) succeeded in mobilising an uprising against Hasina’s regime. This was partly due her ability to project AL and her government as the sole guarantor of independence, sovereignty and secularism. Everyone else was cast as a supporter of anti-liberation forces, being communal, and accused of being motivated to turn the country into a hotbed of Islamic extremism. BNP was also accused of committing crimes and corruption when it was in power.

The founder of BNP is linked to the cruel murder of Sheikh Mujib and the members of her family, and the current leader of BNP is accused of masterminding the grenade attack aimed at killing Sheikh Hasina at an AL rally on 21st August 2004. Hasina survived the attack, but it killed 24 people and injured about 200.

Why did the student movement succeed ?

Like most historical events there are several factors, but the ultimate ones were that (i) the students were willing to die and (ii) the Military displayed patriotism and wisdom by refusing to kill. The students came from all walks of life, transcending party lines and economic background. Hence, attempts to cast them as anti-liberation did not succeed. The army refused to kill to protect a despotic ruler. Bangladeshis have always overthrown dictatorial rulers.

Why the students were ready to die and the army refused to kill are important issues for analysis but the critical question right now is: what next and where do we go from here ?

What Next for Bangladesh ?

The students have shown support for the formation of an interim government with leading intellectuals, scholars and elite liberal professionals and civil society actors under the leadership of Dr Younus, the founder of the Grameen Bank and a Nobel Laureate. These people were previously silenced and harassed during Hasina’s 15 year rule.

Many people remain sceptical, however. Many fear collapse of law and order and communal disturbances in the short run, which may lead to the emergence of another dictatorial rule. Neighbouring India, which supported Hasina’s government, is concerned about the rights of minorities in Bangladesh, although they showed scant concern for the minorities in India in the recent past.

Political and geo-political analysts are busy analysing the geo-political implications and the role of key players in mobilising the students to overthrow Hasina. This is raising questions about who engineered the Regime Change.

Fortunately for Bangladesh and the Bangladeshis, things can get only better. None of the short-term concerns have materialised. No major collapse of law and order nor oppression of minorities have taken place, barring a few localised incidents. Regarding the long run, things can only get better: it is extremely unlikely that another leader can emerge with reasons to substantiate a “moral right to rule”, disdain political discourse and project a personality cult – the basic ingredients of a dictatorial regime.

Hasina embodied several factors which were intrinsically associated with who she was. It is unlikely that anyone else with a similar background will emerge again. She started as a champion of democracy by seeking to overthrow the military rule that followed the murder of her father, then as a champion of justice by seeking justice for the killing of her father. Over time, however, she became a despot and a vengeful leader. Even if AL manages to regroup and come to power, it will be obliged to have a pluralistic attitude and not identify with Sheikh Mujib alone. All the stalwarts of the party have to be recognised, as only by recognising the forgotten popular figures of the party can it re-emerge.

Regarding the wider geo-political play by bigger powers, it may be important but cannot take away the fact that the majority of people are in favour of the change and are happy about it. It could be similar to gaining independence in 1971. India helped Bangladesh to gain independence because of its own geo-political strategic objective, but it has not reduced the taste of independence. If Bangladeshis’ desire coincides with the objective of others’ then so be it. It is win-win for both.

Eventually, Bangladesh will emerge with robust basic requirements for the protection of the institutions to safeguard democracy, such as independent judiciaries, a functioning parliamentary system with effective opposition parties, vibrant media and civil society organisations. It will become a country that will recognise the collective conscience of the leading citizens and intellectuals and establish good governance and social justice. The economy may go through some fluctuations due to troubles in the financial sector and export market, but a robust agriculture sector, vibrant domestic real estate market and remittances will keep it afloat.

The author is a former UN official who was Chief of Policy Assistance Branch for Asia and the Pacific of the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO).

The parliamentary elections held in Bangladesh on 7 January, 2024, has created much controversy in the country, terming it an “election of the Awami League (AL) government, for the AL government and by the AL government”, by many. Internationally, China and India have congratulated the government for victory and organization of a fair election. But, several western countries have termed it as unsatisfactory. However, irrespective of the diverse views, everyone agrees that it was not participatory elections. Voter turn out was significantly low and it was boycotted by the main opposition Bangladesh National Party (BNP).

Saifullah Syed

While international push back are legitimate concerns, what is more worrisome is that Bangladesh may be unwittingly sleep walking to dictatorship under one party rule. Several commentators are suggesting that Sheikh Hasina is becoming an authoritarian ruler from being a champion of democracy and the AL is projecting itself as the sole guarantor of independence, sovereignty and secularism. Everyone else is out there to turn it into a hot bed of Islamic extremism. Such rationales alluding to moral right to rule are perfect ingredients for sleepwalking into dictatorship.

The one-party dictatorships are generally more stable and perverse and the elections legitimizes one party dictatorship by presenting an image of democracy.

History teaches us that one party rule or dictatorship goes against the basic foundation of Bengali values. However, successful moves to stop it can only be launched by understanding why and how it is emerging.

Democracy in Bangladesh

Bangladesh initiated non-party caretaker government (CGT) system for running elections as per demand of the AL in 1991. By all accounts the 1991 election was fair and the CGT worked satisfactorily to hold general elections also in 1996 and 2001. Interestingly, in 1991 the BNP won and in 1996 the AL won and in 2001 the BNP won again.

What went wrong thereafter ? The system ran into difficulties in 2006 due to BNP’s refusal to follow the rules governing the CTG . This led to political crisis of 2006-2008 and brought the military into power. However, a fair election was finally held in 2008 and the AL achieved overwhelming victory. Since then, the AL started getting emboldened and in 2011 it abolished the CTG system. Consequently, BNP launched movement to restore the CTG and started refusing to participate in elections unless it is done. The AL is adamantly refusing to reintroduce CTG, saying it is unconstitutional.

Therefore, it would seem that the core challenge facing our democratic system is two-fold: how to convince AL to introduce the CTG? or how to convince BNP to participate in elections under the ruling government? These challenges may appear easily resolvable through dialogue. Unfortunately, the two parties are mired in deep animosity. For AL, the founder of BNP is linked to the cruel murder of the founder of Bangladesh and his family and the current leader of BNP is accused of master minding the grenade attack on a AL rally on 21 August 2004, killing 24 people and injuring about 200. For the BNP, it has zero trust in AL and considers ditching of the current party leader, Begum Khaleda Zia – with the name Zia, as its existential threat.

Can the civil society or the international community mediate a solution ? Unfortunately, civil society is fragmented along party lines and partly lost its neutrality during the 2006-2008 crisis, when some components stepped into politics. The international community is also divided between the East and the West and a vast majority in the country believes that their call for democracy is motivated by geo-political interests.

Who will blink first ?

Judging from the past, neither is likely to give in under the present leadership. Hence, to save democracy in Bangladesh, everyone concerned needs to come out of hybernation and build a national consensus. BNP leadership must answer for the accusations and face the consequences. Its stalwart leaders should ensure that, instead of slavish subordination. The civil society should shade political color and influence of the ‘funders’, and the international community should accept local dynamics and realities. If all concerned fail to put the country first it will not bode well for democracy in Bangladesh.

The Bengali people will surely rise against one party rule. Success of rebellion will be shaped by the leadership it fosters. Any leadership tainted by criminal accusations and historical misdeeds will fail to obtain broad-based support. People may give the ‘benefit of doubt’ to civil crimes, but may not for criminal crimes, even if portrayed as ‘politically motivated’. Partisan support alone cannot bring down a one party dictatorship. A broad-based national movement is essential. It cannot happen under leadership tainted by criminal accusations. For a democratic Bangladesh, the country needs an opposition led by people who are not and cannot be tainted by criminal accusations and offer AL the moral high ground by default.

The author is a former UN official who was Chief of Policy Assistance Branch for Asia and the Pacific of the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO).

IPS UN Bureau

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