A volcano in Vanuatu was active in 2023. The county was affected by a 6.6 M earthquake in March 2023 and 7.4 M earthquake in December 2024. Credit: Unsplash/Sebastian Lio

By Madhurima Sarkar-Swaisgood and Sanjay Srivastava
BANGKOK, Thailand, Dec 23 2024 (IPS)

In December 2024, Vanuatu experienced yet another harrowing reminder of its vulnerability to disasters—a powerful 7.4 magnitude earthquake struck the Pacific nation’s capital, Port Vila, leaving 14 dead, over 200 injured, and thousands more affected.

The devastating earthquake, compounded by overnight aftershocks and disrupted essential services, highlights the precarious situation faced by countries already grappling with the impacts of climate change and natural disasters.

Vanuatu is emblematic of the cascading disasters that Pacific Island nations increasingly endure, where frequent earthquakes intersect with the escalating impacts of climate-induced hazards such as cyclones, rising sea levels, and coastal erosion accompanied by staggering loss and damage experienced by vulnerable populations and ecosystems.

With every fraction of a degree of warming, the region’s diverse subregions—from the icy peaks of the Third Pole to the low-lying islands of the Pacific—are encountering unparalleled climate risks.

Recognizing these unique challenges, ESCAP launched the 2024 Asia-Pacific Subregional Disaster Reports to customize the insights and recommendations from the flagship Asia-Pacific Disaster Report 2023 to the distinct vulnerabilities and opportunities within each subregion.

Transformative insights: Shaping climate resilient futures

The 2024 subregional reports reveal escalating disaster risks across Asia and the Pacific, stressing that incremental actions are insufficient against intensifying climate impacts. East and North-East Asia has faced $2 trillion in economic losses and nearly half a million fatalities over five decades, with 2°C warming expected to exacerbate droughts, heatwaves, and floods in China, Mongolia and Korea, threatening urban centers and critical systems.

North and Central Asia faces growing multi-hazard risks in the Aral Sea Basin, where droughts, heatwaves, and floods will endanger agriculture and energy systems. In South-East Asia, nearly 100 per cent of the population is at risk of floods under 2°C warming, with the Mekong River Basin emerging as a persistent multi-hazard hotspot.

Pacific island nations face rising seas and stronger cyclones that erode coastlines, threaten biodiversity, and force communities to relocate, while South and South-West Asia grapples with glacial melt from the Third Pole, jeopardizing water security for 1.3 billion people.

Economic and social costs are mounting, with average annual losses (AAL) projected to rise under warming scenarios. East and North-East Asia’s AAL of $510 billion could increase further under 2°C warming, while the Pacific’s AAL exceeds $20 billion, with small island developing states like Vanuatu and Tonga suffering losses of over 21 per cent of GDP.

Despite these dire projections, the reports emphasize that investments in transformative adaptation—such as early warning systems, resilient infrastructure, and integrated climate policies—can mitigate risks and protect livelihoods across the region.

Early warning systems: A lifeline for resilience

A critical takeaway from the subregional reports is the transformative role of early warning systems (EWS) in disaster risk reduction. By providing timely and actionable information, these systems save lives and reduce economic losses. In South-East Asia, effective EWS could prevent $8.7 billion to $13.1 billion annually, while in the Pacific, they could avert $4 billion to $6 billion in damages each year.

EWS are especially vital in regions with complex multi-hazard risks, such as the Pacific small island developing States, where cyclones, floods, and sea-level rise intersect, and in South-East Asia, where urban flood risks are rapidly escalating.

For EWS to be fully effective, they must encompass four key pillars: risk knowledge, detection and monitoring, dissemination of warnings, and preparedness. Investments in these areas, combined with robust regional cooperation, can ensure that warnings reach the most vulnerable populations in time to act.

The reports highlight examples like impact-based forecasting in South and Southwest Asia and AI-powered risk assessments in China and Japan as transformative advancements in EWS implementation. These systems not only save lives but also help governments and communities reduce disaster recovery costs and safeguard economic stability.

Transboundary solutions: Collaborative action for shared risks

Transboundary risks like ocean-based hazards, inland water stress, and desertification demand collaborative solutions across regions.

1. Ocean-Based Climate Action:

Rising sea levels, intensified cyclones, and coastal erosion require collective efforts such as mangrove restoration and integrated coastal management. In the Pacific SIDS, ASEAN, and South-West Asia, platforms like the Pacific Resilience Partnership and Mekong Basin initiatives foster nature-based solutions to protect ecosystems and livelihoods.

2. Inland Water Systems:

The drying of the Aral Sea Basin in North and Central Asia highlights the importance of transboundary water-sharing agreements to combat drought and degradation. For Third Pole glacial melt, collaboration through the Third Pole Climate Forum is vital to safeguard water security for 1.3 billion people in South, South-West, and East Asia.

3. Desertification and Sand and Dust Storms:

Desertification and sand and dust storms (SDS) are accelerating across Asia. Countries like China, Mongolia, and Iran are advancing afforestation and land restoration, while regional frameworks promote sustainable land management to mitigate downstream impacts.

By prioritizing transboundary cooperation, countries can tackle shared risks, protect vulnerable communities, and build scalable solutions for resilience.

A call for transformative change

The 2024 subregional reports make it unequivocally clear: transformative, not incremental, adaptation is needed to combat the growing threats of climate change and disasters. This means embedding climate resilience in every sector—agriculture, energy, urban planning, and biodiversity conservation—while fostering regional cooperation to address transboundary risks.

By aligning local action with global frameworks like the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction and the Paris Agreement, the Asia-Pacific region has an opportunity to lead the way in building a sustainable and resilient future. As ESCAP’s subregional reports demonstrate, the tools and knowledge are at hand. The time to act is now—before the risks become irreversible and the costs unmanageable.

Madhurima Sarkar-Swaisgood is Economic Affairs Officer, ESCAP & Sanjay Srivastava is Chief of Disaster Risk Reduction Section, ESCAP. Other co-authors include Leila Salarpour Goodarzi, Associate Economic Affairs Officer, ESCAP, Rusali Agrawal, Consultant, ESCAP, Naina Tanwar, Consultant, ESCAP, Madhurima Sarkar-Swaisgood, Economic Affairs Officer, ESCAP and Sanjay Srivastava, Chief of Disaster Risk Reduction Section, ESCAP.

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Credit: iStockphoto/Anil Shakya

By Sanjay Srivastava
BANGKOK, Thailand, Feb 22 2024 (IPS)

2023 was the warmest year on record. The latest Copernicus Climate Change Service highlights that February 2023 to January 2024 was the first time that we experienced 12 consecutive months of temperatures 1.5-degree hotter than the pre-industrial era.

2015 to 2023 were the warmest on record in the sequence. The El Niño event of 2023 is likely to be further aggravated in 2024. El Niño typically contributes to a steep rise in global temperatures, fueling more heat on land, atmosphere and ocean, leading to an amplification of complex disaster risks.

Manifestation of 1.5-degree warming into complex climate-related disasters

The 1.5-degree warming has led to widespread heatwaves, droughts, floods, stronger cyclones and a plethora of slow-onset disasters including glacier melting, coral breaching, land degradation, and water scarcity. While temperatures may fall somewhat at the end of El Niño, the climate emergency is becoming critical.

Record-breaking heatwaves: 2023 persevered through record-breaking heat waves that affected many Asian countries. A related study by the World Weather Attribution has found that the heat wave was made at least 30 times more likely in India and Bangladesh due to climate change.

Supercharged tropical cyclones: Excessive heat in the oceans and atmosphere has been supercharging cyclones. The recent years have seen rapid intensification, curvature changes, and complex tracks of tropical cyclones both in North Indian and Southwest Pacific Ocean basins. The major cyclones of 2023, such as cyclones Mocha, Biparjoy, Typhoon Doksuri and tropical storm Jasper exemplify these trends.

Cities at risk: Coastal cities are increasingly exposed to intensifying climate hazards. Cyclone Michaung flooded India’s megacity Chennai two days before the landfall. Typhoon Doksuri, supercharged by the warmer July Pacific Ocean, made landfall in Jinjiang, China, and caused Beijing’s worst flooding in over 50 years.

Monsoonal flooding: The 2023 southwest monsoon period witnessed elevated flooding and landslides/mudslides throughout South-East Asia and South and South-West Asia. The monsoon more often deviates from its normal onset and spreads across the season due to complex interactions with the atmosphere, regional oceans and seas, and landmasses.

Economic cost of warming

In Asia and the Pacific, there were 145 reported natural hazard events in 2023 which caused over 54 thousand deaths, affected over 47 million people and caused an economic damage exceeding 45 billion dollars.

At 1.5-degree warming, ESCAP projected potential losses from disasters to be $953 billion, or 3 per cent of the regional GDP. This rises to nearly $1 trillion, or 3.1 per cent of the regional GDP under a 2-degree warming scenario. Moreover, the population at risk rises from 85 to 87 per cent when warming increases from 1.5- to 2.0- degrees (Figure 1).

ESCAP analysis observes an increasing trend of heatwaves and cyclones under both climate scenarios. In terms of absolute value, East and North-East Asia will experience the highest economic losses, whereas as a share of GDP, the Pacific small island developing States will face the most substantial losses, accounting for around 8 per cent of their GDP. This is more than double the percentage of average annual loss in the rest of Asia and the Pacific.

Key opportunities for actions

Despite the warming, 2023 fostered important milestones that are likely to help build collective resilience:

1. Political declaration on the midterm review of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030: The declaration was an effort to integrate risk reduction into decision-making, investment and behavior guided by an “all-of society” and “all-of-State institutions” approach.
2. The G20 New Delhi Leaders’ Declaration: Inauguration of G20 Working Group on Disaster Risk Reduction highlights accelerating progress on Early Warning and Early Action, disaster and climate resilience of infrastructure systems, and mutual learning of recovery.
3. The Loss and Damage Fund: Set up at COP28 with contributions totaling $700 million to enable grants-based support, the fund aims to balance fiscal burden and climate vulnerability.
4. The Santigo Network for loss and damage: Operationalized at COP 28, the network supports developing countries in averting, minimizing, and addressing loss and damage from climate change.
5. The UN Early Warnings for All Executive Action Plan 2023-2027: EW4All is a key adaptation pathway in our rapidly warming planet. The benefit of early warnings for all triples in vulnerable contexts.
6. Accelerating climate action in Asia-Pacific: to develop regional early warning systems backed by a regional strategy to support EW4All, build national capacities and replenishing the ESCAP Multi-Doner Trust Fund for Tsunami, Disaster and Climate Preparedness

In this regard, ESCAP’s regional strategy on empowering transboundary solutions to transboundary hazard through systematically building resilience through subregional intergovernmental institutions would be pivotal. While the warmest year reminds us that the region’s risk is outpacing resilience, the window of opportunities in 2024 offers a promise of a resilient future.

Sanjay Srivastava, Chief of Disaster Risk Reduction, United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP)

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Two destructive Category 4 tropical cyclones, Judy and Kevin, and an earthquake of 6.5 magnitude impacted over 80 per cent of the Vanuatu population from 1 to 3 March 2023. To address this emergency situation, the UN, along with Pacific member States have deployed personnel on the ground to coordinate humanitarian assistance and prepare post-disaster damage assessment.

Sitting in the Pacific “Ring of Fire,” Vanuatu experiences frequent volcanic and seismic activity. And along with the other Pacific small island developing States (SIDS), Vanuatu faces existential threats due to rising sea level, ocean acidification and the increased frequency and severity of natural disasters and is on the front line of climate crisis.

The twin cyclones and an earthquake in just 48 hours remind the world that seismic and climate risks are converging and intensifying – no community feels this stronger than those of the Blue Pacific Continent.

On macro-economic impact, in fact, Pacific SIDS face Average Annual Losses from multiple hazards totaling to US$ 1.1 billion in the current scenario. This figure is set to increase to US$ 1.3 billion under moderate and US$1.4 billion under worst-case climate warming scenarios. As a percentage of GDP, Vanuatu, Tonga and Palau are projected to face highest losses – Vanuatu is projected to lose a staggering 20 per cent GDP annually due to disasters.

Figure 1: Tropical cyclones Judy and Kevin track with wind speed zones (UNITAR-UNOSAT)


 

Intensifying and expanding climate crisis

In ESCAP’s recent report, the analysis shows that at 1.5 to 2.0 °C warming, there are likely intensifying annual wind speeds of tropical cyclones and that the risk of tropical cyclones is expected to expand and include newer areas beyond the historical tracks (Figure 2). Vanuatu in particular, will experience higher risk of tropical cyclone both in terms of the intensification as well as geographic expansion of the riskscape.

As cyclone hazards are intensifying and deviating from their traditional tracks, their greater complexity results in deeper uncertainties in the ability to predict. Our Blue Pacific Continent is not sufficiently prepared.

Figure 2: Intensifying and expanding cyclone risks under new climate change scenarios


 

Formulating transformative actions

As the climate changes, the riskscape is transforming. These disaster risks compound and cascade to amplify the great hardship experienced by the Pacific SIDS in terms of population and critical infrastructure exposure. The argument for transformative action to mitigate and adapt to intensifying and expanding disaster risks in the Blue Pacific Continent has never been more compelling.

First, early warning for all is an imperative, needs to capture compounding risks.

The UN Secretary-General highlighted that every person on the planet is to be covered by early warning systems by 2027. The Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction sets the increase in availability and access to of multi‑hazard early warning systems as a distinct target, Target G, to be achieved by 2030. As per the latest Sendai Framework reporting of Target G, large gaps remain for many countries in the Pacific SIDS (See Figure 3).

Relative to other countries in the subregion, Vanuatu’s Target G scores are high, reporting substantial to comprehensive coverage of multi-hazard early warning systems across all indicators. WMO’s Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre in Nadi, Fiji was providing early warnings in the face of power outages and surmounting uncertainties – as a result, there have been no reported fatalities.

Figure 3: Sendai Framework for DRR Target G scores for countries in the Pacific region


 

Second, transformative adaptation solutions are needed.

To minimize and prevent systemic and cascading risk, we need to make new infrastructure and water resource management more resilient. Improving dryland crop production and using nature-based solutions such as increasing mangroves protection are also priority adaptation solutions.

1.5 per cent of GDP for adaptation investment is estimated to be needed in Pacific SIDS – three times less than the average losses projected. These adaptation investments must be risk-informed and strategically directed towards policy actions that yield high cost-benefits. Where there are multi-hazard risk hotspots across the region, risk-informed policy and transformative actions should capitalize on inter-sectoral synergies and co-benefits.

Third, the 2050 Strategy for the Blue Pacific Continent provides a clear pathway

With the adoption of the 2050 Strategy for the Blue Pacific Continent in July 2022, Pacific SIDS have developed a clear pathway to synergize regional priorities with accelerated implementation of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction and the SAMOA Pathway.

Next generation risk analytics, advances in climate science, geo-spatial modeling, Artificial Intelligence and machine learning must be at the heart of people-centered and evidence-based decision-making. And, the Framework for Resilient Development in the Pacific is an ideal platform to take forward some of the policy decisions.

Strengthening subregional and regional cooperation platform

Tropical cyclones, often transboundary in nature, require an architecture of regional co-operation mechanisms to effectively manage the shared risks. In this instance, local capacities and regional support mechanisms should be commended. To further strengthen this work, the lesson from Vanuatu’s back-to-back cyclones and earthquake is to have effective, impact-based and risk informed early warning systems that can capture the complexity and dynamisms of a compounding risk.

The Asia-Pacific Risk and Resilience Portal was developed by ESCAP with the goal of creating a user-friendly one stop platform for policymakers to access a vast array of scientific information and decision support tools to promote risk informed policy decisions.

Furthermore, the Vanuatu incidents underscores the need for conducting a rapid post-disaster needs assessment that can support formulation of a long-term recovery strategy and plan for its reconstruction by applying a standardized approach with innovative methodology and framework.

The overlapping and transboundary nature of risks experienced by countries of the Blue Pacific Continent cannot be addressed without solidarity and collective action towards strengthening regional cooperation platform.

Sanjay Srivastava is Chief, Disaster Risk Reduction, United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP);
Sudip Ranjan Basu is Deputy Head, ESCAP Subregional Office for the Pacific

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