Grandparents looking after a toddler at a park in Viet Nam. Credit: Pexels/Loifotos
 
According to the World Population Prospects 2024: Summary of Results published July 10, it is expected that the world’s population will peak in the mid-2080s, growing over the next sixty years from 8.2 billion people in 2024 to around 10.3 billion in the mid-2080s, and then will return to around 10.2 billion by the end of the century. The size of the world’s population in 2100 is now expected to be six per cent lower—or 700 million fewer—than anticipated a decade ago. Meanwhile, the UN is commemorating World Population Day on July 11.

By Srinivas Tata
BANGKOK, Thailand, Jul 11 2024 (IPS)

World Population Day on 11 July provides an excellent opportunity to take stock and look ahead regarding population issues that are affecting all aspects of society in Asia and the Pacific.

This year is special, since we also commemorate the adoption of the Programme of Action of the International Conference on Population and Development (ICPD) 30 years ago in Cairo. In Asia and the Pacific, we convened the Seventh Asian and Pacific Population Conference in 2023 which informed the ICPD commemoration earlier this year.

These events help us to reflect on how the concept of population policies has evolved from a narrow focus on population control to identifying and seeking opportunities in the multiple linkages between population and development.

The region has changed beyond recognition from the situation in 1963 when the first Asian and Pacific Population Conference was convened, and population policies were first given serious attention.

The population of the region at that time was 1.9 billion, with a total fertility rate of about 6.0 births per woman and a life expectancy at birth of 51.3 years. Children aged 0-14 accounted for 40 per cent of the total population, whereas persons 65 years or older accounted for about 4 per cent.

Today, the region has a population of about 4.8 billion people which represents about 58 per cent of the world’s total. The total fertility rate has plunged to 1.8 births per woman, life expectancy at birth has increased to 74.7 years, and the proportion of older persons stands at 10.5 per cent of the total population (and it is projected to go up to 19 per cent or almost 1 billion people by 2050).

These aggregates mark variation at the subregional levels, with older persons in countries in East and North-East Asia, for example, already accounting for a much greater share of the total population compared to countries in other parts of the region.

This has significant implications for the labour force, economy, health care and sustainability of social protection systems. The issue has been highlighted by ESCAP and the UN system for years, and it is now receiving heightened attention from Governments, civil society and mainstream media, some of whom are making doomsday predictions resulting in negative perceptions of older persons and outright ageism.

Some governments have initiated pro-natalist policies with limited effect. The demographic changes that have happened over decades cannot be reversed by the flick of a switch.

We need to understand that population ageing is the result of significant progress and achievements in health care, nutrition, education, strives toward gender equality and empowerment of women and greater reproductive choices for women.

Population ageing can be seen as a natural outcome of these achievements, but clearly, we need to adapt better to these changes that affect all aspects of society. We need a range of interconnected policies which ensure stronger social protection systems, promote active and healthy ageing, and build strong care systems. We need to support older women who are often the most likely to be left behind.

Also, the younger people of today are older persons of tomorrow, and thus we must adopt a life course approach to population ageing that recognizes the importance of data and evidence and accords priority to the rights of older persons.

As proportions of older persons rise, significant cohorts of populations in different age groups will co-exist in our region for the first time in history. This means that managing inter-generational relations will be critical to ensuring harmonious, cohesive, inclusive and sustainable societies in the future.

Ensuring gender equality is critical to addressing this issue. Relieving women, including many older women, of the huge unpaid care burden and ensuring their participation in the labour force will contribute to maintaining labour force productivity keeping them active and healthy for longer periods. This will add trillions of USD to the GDP of countries in the region.

This can only be achieved if population policies are reimagined to explore their multiple links to the different dimensions of development, taking into account the changing age and family structures.

In the end, it is as important to add life to years as it is to add years to life.

Srinivas Tata is Director of ESCAP’s Social Development Division.

IPS UN Bureau

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By Srinivas Tata and Eduardo Klien
BANGKOK, Thailand, Oct 1 2019 (IPS)

As we are celebrating the International Day of Older Persons today, we recognize that population ageing is a human success story, a story of longer and often healthier lives of the world’s people. The many faces of older persons that we see in Asia and in the Pacific, and, indeed, all over the world, attest to this fact. Still, however, ageing is considered a threat. There is talk about the “burden of ageing”, exploding healthcare costs, and concerns about plummeting economic growth due to the shrinking labour force. In many cities of Asia-Pacific, we see advertisement for “anti-ageing cosmetics” and surgeries. The current ideal is that we must be young, dynamic and without wrinkles or grey hair, especially older women.

Srinivas Tata

The region continues to be the prime driver of global economic growth, yet a significant proportion of the working age population is not covered by pensions. In several countries of the region, especially ones in South-East Asia and South and South-West Asia, coverage is well below 20 per cent. Similar challenges exist in terms of providing accessible and affordable health care, particularly for those left furthest behind. Robust social protection systems must be developed to address population ageing in a comprehensive manner. Because the majority of older persons are women, their needs must be specifically addressed.

Older persons make vital contributions to society; their role should not only be acknowledged, it should be made easier, including through improving their knowledge and skills through lifelong learning, promoting flexible working arrangements, and allowing them to have easy access to everyday conveniences, like public transportation. A study on the time use of men and women shows that overall, older persons provide more care than they receive. They provide care to grandchildren and other older persons who need care, with many intergenerational benefits, including indirect contributions to family income by making younger women freer to participate in the paid labour force. Ageing surveys have also found that the health of older persons tends to be better if they are socially connected, volunteer and contribute to society.

Eduardo Klien

Population ageing provides attractive business prospects, often identified as the “Silver Economy”. More products should be tailored to the needs of the growing older population, while universally designed products and the care economy can grow exponentially. Financial products and instruments, like reverse mortgages, can be designed to adapt to needs of older persons, including to use their immovable assets to fund financial requirements.

The young people of today are the older persons of tomorrow. Population ageing can only be addressed systematically if an intergenerational approach based on equity and seeing youth and ageing are part of a single continuum is adopted. Let us celebrate population ageing and embrace it. A fair society for older persons is a just and prosperous society for all ages.

ESCAP and HelpAge have recently joined forces to address population ageing more comprehensively through the organization of advocacy events and the collaboration on research on older persons. We stand ready to support countries in the region in designing and developing policies and programmes to ensure that older persons are not left behind.

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By Srinivas Tata and Jaco Cilliers
BANGKOK, Thailand, Aug 30 2019 (IPS)

It’s 1962, and in a modest Hong Kong neighborhood, a poetic love story unfolds. Filmed almost twenty years ago, Wong Kar-wai’s seminal movie In the Mood for Love captured the world’s imagination about lifestyle in the region.

A lower-middle class existence had never looked better. Fast forward to 2018 and a new movie, set in today’s Singapore captures the world’s attention, but for very different reasons.

“Crazy Rich Asians” mixes Asian family values, education and prosperity with a consumeristic facade of jewelry, clothes and luxury travel. The result is entertaining, yet thought-provoking: when did this seismic socio-economic shift take place? When did Asia become so prosperous, yet so unequal?

Research by the United Nations has shown that inequalities of both income and opportunities have been on the rise across the region over the past two decades. Our 2019 research with the Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative (OPHI) shows two-thirds of the world’s ‘multi-dimensionally’ poor now live in middle-income countries.

Increases in income inequality have coincided with a narrower concentration of wealth in the Asia-Pacific region, now home to the greatest number of billionaires in the world. Their combined net worth is seven times the combined GDP of the region’s least developed countries.

Governments have committed to achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) by 2030 and aim to fulfill the promise of “leaving no one behind”. Nonetheless, research reveals a worrying trend toward greater inequality, not just in incomes, but also in access to basic services — educational attainment, health, clean energy and basic sanitation.

Gender is, perhaps, the most important lens through which these stark inequalities in access to health, basic services and rights can be understood. And they are most likely to be left behind. In addition, natural disasters, which have become more frequent and intense, disproportionately affect the poorest. Due to their socio-economic plight, their capacity to recover is also seriously weakened.

Putting “Leave no one behind” into practice

Inequalities are not inevitable – they ‘stem from policies, laws, cultural norms, corruption, and other issues that can be addressed.’ To be addressed, they require a range of well-coordinated policy interventions. If left unchecked, inequalities ultimately threaten social cohesion, economic growth and environmental sustainability.

Several countries have prioritized investments in education, health and social protection to achieve more equitable development outcomes. Mongolia, for instance, now allocates 21 per cent of public expenditure toward social protection with a specific focus on children. This has resulted in a significant reduction in stunting.

Bhutan and Thailand have successfully introduced universal health care schemes. Viet Nam decided to boost financing toward education and health sectors, in effect managing or reversing the trend toward greater inequality.

Fiscal measures are equally fundamental in addressing inequality. Tax to GDP ratios are low in a number of countries across the region, especially in South Asia. Progressive taxation remains a critical tool for wealth and income redistribution.

Some countries are taking steps to reform their tax systems while others are finding innovative and creative ways to boost venue and enforce tax collection. In 2016, for instance, Thailand introduced an inheritance tax and China is planning to do so in the coming years.

Labour market policies aimed at improving working conditions, raising the minimum wage, and offering unemployment benefits can act as a buffer to protect the poorer segments of society.

While some countries in the region, especially in Southeast Asia, have raised the minimum wage, more comprehensive measures need to be taken. With the emergence and adoption of new technologies—automation, AI, and machine-learning—many low-skilled jobs and tasks are being eliminated.

Adopting and embracing new technologies would need to be viewed through the broader lens of achieving the SDG and leaving no one behind.

Emerging trends, such as the fourth industrial revolution and climate change have wider cross-border ramifications. Countering the negative impact on inequalities will require collective and coordinated responses at the national, regional and global levels. It is apparent that a range of pro-active actions need to be taken by policymakers in the region to tackle inequality. Business as usual will just not do it this time.

The producers of the comedy blockbuster probably did not intend to stir debate on socio-economic inequalities. Nonetheless, by showing us “Crazy Rich Asians” enjoying their lavish lifestyles, they also managed to hold up a mirror and make us think about the striking contradictions lived everyday by millions.

If the region is to continue to be a growth engine for the world and a centre of global economic dynamism, it will have to show that it is not just a place where billionaires feel at home, but also a region that is charting a more secure and sustainable future for those left behind.

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