Population explosion, though missing from the country’s policy discourse, presents one of the most serious threats to our national security.

There may not be a simple causal relationship between demography and security, but evidence shows that high population growth is a major destabilising factor in the least developed countries. There are many examples to show that tensions leading up to conflict may have been heightened by demographic pressures.

Zahid Hussain

One of the highest population growth rates and a huge youth bulge have created an extremely dangerous situation for Pakistan. We could have used our demographic power to turn around the country’s economy, but with little investment in education and slow economic growth, the youth bulge is fast becoming a liability and serious threat to the country’s internal security.

The inability of the state to productively utilise a large young generation has already turned the country into a breeding ground for violent extremism, and could cause further social dislocation and conflict.

The Pakistani youth bulge: a ticking time bomb

This runaway population growth has created vast ranks of restless young men with few prospects and little to lose. Their frustrated ambitions can be an explosive force. More troubling is that there is no realisation about this lurking threat. A study conducted by Population Action International shows that about 80 per cent of the world’s civil conflicts since the 1970s have occurred in countries with young, fast-growing populations.

Pakistan is a stark example of that; thousands of people have been killed in militant and extremist violence, earning the country the dubious distinction of being one of the world’s most violent places.

Indeed, there are multiple domestic and international reasons that are responsible for the rising violent extremism in Pakistan. But it is not just religious fanaticism that drives young men to resort to violence. It also has much to do with the failure of the state to turn this young population into productive citizens.

Pakistan is sitting on a potential demographic disaster.

Pakistan is sitting on a potential demographic disaster with more than 120 million of its population under 25 years of age. This high number of young people is the face of today’s Pakistan. This new generation is also at the centre of an unresolved ideological struggle about what sort of country Pakistan should be. With an extremely low literacy rate and bleak job opportunities, the future prospects of the young generation are uncertain and dark.

*Take a look: To be young in Pakistan *

Growing frustration among the youth makes them vulnerable to prejudices and extremism. The gravity of the situation can be assessed by the fact that 32pc of our young generation is illiterate and the majority of the others are school dropouts. Enrolment rates are the lowest in South Asia. Pakistan’s spending on education is around 2pc of the GDP, about half that spent by India. The poor quality of education hardly equips the youth to face the challenges of the globalised world they live in, further pushing them towards isolation.

Furthermore, the widening social, cultural and economic divide has made the less advantaged youth receptive to extremism and violence. It has created a mindset that facilitates a militant agenda. Many studies have shown that there is a direct link between religious extremism and social and economic marginalisation.

The instability resulting from severe demographic pressures has led to civil war in many countries. Pakistan will not be too far away from such a situation if its present drift continues. In fact, we are already in the midst of one. The growing alienation of young generations and their feelings towards the government and state have been illustrated in some recent surveys. The youth’s despair is deep-seated in the present conditions.

With little or no education, as well as the lack of economic opportunities, they have not much to look forward to. Few are hopeful of getting jobs. The continuing downslide of the economy indicates that things are not getting better. Pakistan’s population has doubled over the past few decades.

The 2017 population census has shown that Pakistan has moved up the ladder, becoming the fifth most populous nation only behind India, China, the US and Indonesia. With a staggering growth rate of 2.4pc per annum, the country’s population is around 207m. That marks an increase of more than 57pc since the last population census in 1998, and is higher than what had been projected.

Pakistan needs an annual economic growth rate of at least 6pc to 7pc to absorb millions of people entering the job market every year. The population of the unemployed has drastically risen with the economic growth rate averaging around 3pc over the past decade, thus creating a dangerous situation

All this has left the country struggling to provide for a rapidly expanding populace. It is a disaster in the making. What is most worrisome is that this population explosion and its implications have drawn little attention from the political leadership.

Despite the gravity of the situation, the issue has hardly figured in the national discourse. The PTI government that says it is committed to human development appears to have completely ignored the challenge that presents the biggest threat to political stability and national security. Human development is not possible without dealing with the problem of high population growth.

It is a nightmare scenario fast unfolding. Firm and decisive action is needed to contain the population explosion before it is too late. The consequences of further delay will be disastrous. Economic and social problems faced by the country cannot be dealt with effectively unless population growth is brought under control. Other countries have done it, and it should not be difficult for us either. But what is needed is political will and a clear policy.

It may be late but the situation can still be salvaged with the government taking the issue more seriously. The exploding population bomb has put the country’s future in jeopardy. Is the government listening?

The writer is an author and journalist.

zhussain100@yahoo.com
Twitter: @hidhussain

This story was originally published by Dawn, Pakistan

The targets may be different but the perpetrators of the two deadly attacks carried out in Balochistan in the space of one month are the same. The responsibility of the carnage at the shrine in Khuzdar as well as the slaughter of police cadets in Quetta have been claimed by the militant Islamic State group and its affiliates.

Zahid Hussain

It is not for the first time that a terrorist attack in Pakistan has carried the IS footprint. Last year’s bus massacre of over 40 members of the Ismaili community in Karachi was among the most gruesome of its kind. There have also been reports of security agencies busting militant cells affiliated with the group in other parts of the country. But it is Balochistan which is in the cross hairs.

Islamic State’s apparent involvement in the latest attacks shows it has gained a foothold in the region.

What is more troubling is the emerging nexus between local sectarian outfits and the lethal global jihadi group. We, however, are still in a state of denial about the looming threat. IS is not present in Pakistan; the idea is just a part of our enemies’ conspiracy to isolate the country — this is the patent response by government officials after every attack.

It may be true that the Middle Eastern jihadi group does not have a formal organisational structure in Pakistan, but over the past years it has found allies among Sunni extremist groups such as the Lashkar-i-Jhangvi (LJ) and some splinter factions of the Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan. What has brought them together is the strong anti-Shia bent of their jihadist ideology.

Most of these local militant groups were earlier affiliated with Al Qaeda which has lost its appeal after losing ground in Pakistan’s tribal areas and in Afghanistan. The spectacular advances of IS and its territorial control in Iraq and Syria have now made it much more attractive to militants in search of a new and more radical identity.

Although IS has now lost much of the territory under its control and is on the retreat in the Middle East, it has maintained links with its allies in Pakistan. These groups operate more like a franchise than a formal centralised structure. Hence it is not surprising that the pictures of the Quetta police academy attackers were posted on the group’s official website hours after the incident.

Some radicalised, educated young Pakistanis, influenced by its powerful online propaganda, have also pledged allegiance to IS. Quite a few were involved in attacks in Karachi and have recently been convicted by military courts. But some of these cells are still actively forming a nexus with sectarian groups, raising fears of continuing terrorist attacks across the country despite crackdowns by law-enforcement agencies. The breakdown of governance and an increasingly ineffective policing system, especially in Karachi, provide space for such groups.

However, it is the rise of sectarian militancy in Balochistan over the last few years that has provided a foothold for IS in the province. A major factor in the ascent of violent sectarian outfits is the mushrooming of foreign-funded radical madressahs in the province. Seen to be primarily financed by Gulf donors, they are largely concentrated in Mastung and Khuzdar districts, the latter being the site of the latest attack on a remote shrine.

While travelling on the RCD highway some 15 years ago, I remember seeing madressahs dotting the area where no other amenities were available. The administration either approved of them or looked the other way, boosting foreign-funded Sunni radicalisation. There is also strong evidence of a nexus between sectarian groups and the militias allegedly sponsored by the intelligence agencies to counter Baloch separatists. Such tacit support has allowed the militants to spread their tentacles.

Over the years Mastung has emerged as the main centre of sectarian militancy. There is still a madressah complex set up by anti-Shia groups operating in the region. It is serving as one of the bastions of religious extremism in the province. Dawood Badani, a relative of 9/11 mastermind Khalid Sheikh Mohammed, was responsible for the first major sectarian terrorist attack on an imambargah in Quetta in 2004.

The trail of most of the attacks on Hazara Shias in Quetta that have claimed hundreds of innocent lives over the last decade leads to this district. Many top LJ leaders have reportedly been killed in the latest crackdown by security agencies, but the recent surge in violence indicates that sectarian networks are still capable of launching high-profile terrorist attacks. Meanwhile, Pakistani sectarian militants have also found sanctuaries in Afghanistan, allowing them to move about freely on both sides of the border and making it much harder for Pakistani law-enforcement agencies to track them down.

Just a few months ago, Pakistan’s chief military spokesman declared that IS plans to expand into the country had been thwarted. But the group’s apparent involvement in the latest attacks shows that it has gained a foothold in the region despite the crackdown.

It is not just for publicity’s sake that the banner of IS is being used by various factions of the LJ; there is strong evidence of organisational links between them. The latest wave of terrorist attacks in Balochistan appears to be part of the strategy to hit soft targets as IS suffers huge setbacks in its strongholds in the Middle East.

Surely, one must not exaggerate the IS threat, but it is also unwise to underestimate the growing influence of the group, especially given the surge in sectarian militancy and the weakened authority of the state. We are reaping the whirlwind of our misplaced policies.

The writer is an author and journalist.
zhussain100@yahoo.com
Published in Dawn, November 16th, 2016

This story was originally published by Dawn, Pakistan

The spectacle of unarmed civilians blocking army tanks, overpowering soldiers and forcing them to the ground in the streets seemed surreal. It was a rare show of people’s power defeating a coup attempt. What happened in Turkey last weekend is a sign of changing times.

Although it was a putsch by renegade members of the armed forces, the events of the past week have completely altered the power dynamics in the country where the military had for long wielded supreme authority. It may not be a victory for democracy, but certainly if a triumph for a populist elected leader-turned-autocrat.

Editorial: Post-coup Turkey

For almost a century, since the birth of modern Turkey, the military had remained the guardian of the country’s secular tradition. The military’s political role has been enshrined in the constitution that legitimised its frequent intervention in the country’s politics. It had successfully staged three coups in the last century and had executed elected leaders. The Islamists were barred from politics for not being in line with the country’s founding vision.

The danger of the military striking back has not gone away as Erdogan consolidates his power.

But the situation changed dramatically over the past decade with the coming to power of the Justice and Development Party (AKP), a socially conservative party with an agenda for economic development led by Recep Tayyip Erdogan, in 2002. The party has won four elections since then. Its popularity went up each time it pulled out the country out of political instability and perpetual economic crisis. Turkey became one of the fastest-growing economies. The country has earned a coveted place among the top 20 global economies.

This remarkable economic turnaround of Turkey strengthened the civilian authority and consequently undermined the power and influence of the military. Erdogan, who earlier served two terms as prime minister and was recently elected as the country’s president, had opened up cases against retired top military officers for plotting a coup against elected governments, many of whom are serving jail sentences. He had further consolidated his power by purging the military.

This accumulation of power has made Erdogan unarguably the most powerful leader since Mustafa Kemal, the founder of modern Turkey. That has also turned him into an autocrat. He has ruthlessly crushed any opposition and clamped down on the independent media. His rule has also eroded the secular character of the country, raising its Islamic identity. All these factors could be the reason behind the mutiny within the military.

For sure, it was mostly Erdogan supporters who came out on the streets defying the rebels, but secular forces too backed the government despite being victimised by the increasingly authoritarian rule of Erdogan. That underlines the growing political consensus in Turkey that a military takeover is not a solution.

It, however, remains to be seen whether the triumph would make Erdogan more autocratic, or return him to the democratic path. The danger of the military striking back has not gone away as Erdogan consolidates his power. It is hard to imagine the same kind of public uprising against a more organised and coordinated coup attempt in the future.

What happened in Turkey has triggered intense political debate in Pakistan about whether the same could happen here in the event of a military intervention. With a common tradition of frequent military coups in the two countries, the comparison seems inevitable. Imran Khan has further fired up the controversy by declaring that the people would come out in support of the military in Pakistan. One is not sure whether it is just wishful thinking of a political leader longing for some ‘divine’ help or whether he is merely reflecting the public frustration with the Sharif government.

Surely the PTI chairman is not the only one predicting a smooth takeover if the generals decide to move in. Pakistan’s past experience may lend some credence to such arguments.

Yet one must not ignore the changing political dynamics in the country that may not allow the return of military rule, notwithstanding the public disenchantment with the government and desire of some politicians and self-serving TV anchors. Surely the military leadership is mature enough to understand the cost and political ramifications of any Bonapartism.

There is little probability of a Turkey-like popular resistance to any military takeover bid in Pakistan. Yet there is no mass welcome waiting for a potential coup-maker either. Indeed the armed forces have regained public respect and won admiration for their role in fighting militancy and terrorism in the country.

Gen Raheel Sharif may well be the most popular person in the country. But it would certainly be a different situation if he decided to intervene. Imran Khan and others of his ilk are grossly mistaken about the public’s likely reaction to a military takeover. It is no more a situation where the generals could just walk into the corridors of power amidst public cheering. Despite bitter political rivalries, most of the political parties are in agreement not to support any direct military intervention.

Interestingly, days before the bungled putsch in Turkey, posters imploring Gen Sharif to take over appeared in all the major cities of Pakistan. Similar posters appeared earlier too when some obscure groups took out rallies in support of the army chief. But there was no groundswell of support for the move. It only brought embarrassment to the general, who has already announced he will not seek another term in office.

Despite all the problems of governance and ineptitude, the political system is still working. Unlike in the past, all the major political parties have stakes in the present political order. All of them are part of the power structure and are not likely to support any move to derail the system, notwithstanding Imran Khan’s dire predictions.

What Imran Khan has failed to understand is that it would be a collective failure of the political forces and not just of the Sharif government if the military returns to power and is greeted by the people. Pakistan may not be Turkey, but those inviting military intervention must learn some lessons from the events of the last week.

The writer is an author and journalist.
zhussain100@yahoo.com
Twitter: @hidhussain

This story was originally published by Dawn, Pakistan

A wave of terrorist attacks — from Istanbul to Bangladesh and Iraq to Saudi Arabia — has shaken the Muslim world. The deadly week has left hundreds of people dead and wounded. The militant Islamic State group (IS) has claimed responsibility for some of the attacks and others clearly seem to be inspired by the group that has now established itself as the most lethal terrorist network with global reach.

It promised to make the holy month of Ramazan a pain for those who it considers ‘infidels’. Most of the victims of the terror attacks carried out in the name of Islam were Muslims.

These terrorist attacks came even as the militant group was being driven out of much of the territory under its control in Syria and Iraq, and marked a dramatic shift in its strategy to extend its terror war to other regions. While the suicide bombing in Baghdad appears to be in retaliation to the series of military setbacks received by IS over the past months, the attacks in Istanbul and Saudi Arabia signal a widening of the theatre of terror wars in the Middle East.

Editorial: Terror in the kingdom

The profiles of the Dhaka restaurant killers and those involved in Karachi’s Safoora bus carnage are similar.

Although IS has not claimed responsibility for those two attacks, suspicion leads to its role in them. Ironically, both Turkey and Saudi Arabia have in the past been blamed for providing indirect support to the Sunni militant group fighting the Shia-dominated governments in Iraq and Syria.

Most of the oil from IS-controlled territory in Iraq was reportedly smuggled to Turkey. Turkey’s border areas with Syria had become the main transit point for fighters from across the world joining IS. Some analysts likened the Turkish border region with Peshawar of the 1980s during the Afghan jihad against Soviet occupation, when the Pakistani city became the main base of holy warriors from across the Muslim world. The tightening of the border under international pressure seems to have turned the foreign militants against the Turkish state.

Turkish security officials have named a Chechen militant for masterminding the deadly attack on Istanbul that left more than 40 people dead. Chechens form one of the largest contingents of foreign fighters in the IS ranks in Syria and Iraq. The group has also been blamed for other terrorist attacks that have rocked Turkey over the past few months.

No one has so far claimed responsibility for the series of coordinated suicide attacks in Saudi Arabia this week. But IS has been responsible for some recent terrorist attacks targeting Shia mosques and security personnel with devastating effect. This indicates the growing presence of the militant group in the country that the kingdom has been accused of patronising in its battle for influence in the region. With its growing internal and external problems, Saudi Arabia is much more vulnerable to the threat emanating from the same extremist elements.

But it is Bangladesh that has become the latest hotspot of rising Islamist militancy. The bloody siege in a restaurant in the nation’s capital underlines the evolution of IS activities beyond the Middle East. What is most disturbing is the growing influence of the militant group among the country’s youthful population.

The profiles of the six militants who hacked to death 20 people, mostly foreigners, inside a restaurant in an upscale neighbourhood in Dhaka last week fit into a new generation of militants influenced by IS. They were all young and products of elite schools — children of opportunity rather than deprivation. They came there to kill and die in the name of faith.

The gruesome carnage marked the scaling up in religion-based violence that has plagued Bangladesh for the past three years. Several liberal bloggers and intellectuals have been hacked to death in targeted individual attacks. Those convicted in the killing of bloggers also belonged to secular educational institutions. IS was quick to claim responsibility, posting pictures of the attackers online.

Not surprisingly the profiles of the Dhaka restaurant killers and those involved in Karachi’s Safoora bus carnage are quite similar — young, educated and from upper-middle class backgrounds. Both groups were home-grown militants influenced by IS ideology. They seem to have been radicalised by some local contact and powerful IS propaganda posted online. Religion is the most effective tool used by the terrorist group to manipulate the minds of young Muslims across the world.

Read: Bangladesh politician ‘stunned’ by son’s role in Dhaka carnage

As in Pakistan, IS may not have any organised structure in Bangladesh, but its footprint has been visible in the country for long. Some radical Islamist groups in Bangladesh are suspected to have established links with Al Qaeda and IS. Many Bangladeshi militants are reported to have joined the IS war in Iraq and Syria. The Dhaka attackers had reportedly disappeared from their homes months ago and their parents seemed to have no clue about the radicalisation of their children except for their becoming more religious. There is still no information about what they were doing during their disappearance.

Bangladesh is a new centre of militancy. The country has figured more frequently in the propaganda literature of Al Qaeda and IS. The IS central leadership may not have been directly involved in the Dhaka terrorist attack. The carnage, however, was part of the plan to escalate militant violence around the world. After France and Belgium, it is now the Muslim countries that are being targeted.

After losing much of the territory under its control, thereby endangering its dream of establishing a ‘caliphate’ that had attracted Islamist militants from across the globe, IS has now stepped up terrorist attacks in the Middle East and beyond. The latest bloodbath is yet another indicator of the grave threat the militant group poses to the world, particularly to the Muslim countries.

IS justifies its terrorist actions in the name of faith, declaring everyone who does not subscribe to its retrogressive ideology an ‘infidel’. There is a need for united action against the scourge before it is too late.

The writer is an author and journalist.
zhussain100@yahoo.com
Twitter: @hidhussain

This story was originally published by Dawn, Pakistan

Nawaz Sharif`s much-awaited speech in the National Assembly was as unconvincing as his two previous addresses to the nation. It was the same detail of family business and tale of persecution.

There was a hint of defiance but overall it lacked in confidence. The prime minister looked under tremendous pressure as he tried to respond to some of the questions that have been posed by the opposition about the source of his family`s enormous offshore wealth.

There was still no plausible account of the money trail leading to the upmarket Mayfair properties in London that his family owns. In fact, the speech has raised more questions than it has answered. Sharif`s tax returns over the last two decades and the story of the hard work and business acumen that went into the making of the family business empire failed to impress the opposition that is going for the jugular.

What, perhaps, salvaged the day for the beleaguered prime minister was the opposition`s irresponsible decision to walk out instead of responding to his speech in the house. They chose to take the battle outside parliament and to TV talk shows, making a public spectacle of a serious political issue.

It is difficult to comprehend the logic behind this step given that it was the demand of the opposition itself that had forced Sharif to take his case to parliament. While the government looked nervous fighting a desperate battle, the opposition too did not come out looking good. It was a miserable show of political gamesmanship that has further deepened the political crisis unleashed by the Panama leaks.

There seems to be no end to the deadlock after the opposition has rejected the prime minister`s proposal to form a joint parliamentary committee to devise a mutually agreed accountability mechanism. Many contend the offer came too late and has become irrelevant after the chief justice declined the government`s request to form a judicial commission to probe the allegations of corruption against those named in the Panama leaks. What is next for Sharif? No one seems to have a clear answer to the question.

It did not come as a surprise when Chief Justice Anwar Zaheer Jamali turned down the government`s request to head what he described as a `toothless` judicial commission with no clear parameters of investigation. He wants parliament to pass new legislation to make such a commission more effective.

It was obvious that the government had deliberately kept the Terms of Reference (ToR) wide and complex so as to take away the focus from the Sharif family`s offshore wealth. The main objective was to prolong the investigation without any conclusion in order to defuse the crisis. But it was not to happen.

The chief justice rightly pointed out that such investigation would only muddy the image of the apex court.

Such a blunt and candid response from the chief justice who is due to retire later this year has further limited Sharif`s options. That perhaps had compelled him to seek the opposition`s support to amend the ToR. But there is still no indication of the government being interested in new legislation to make the proposed judicial commission more effective as suggested by the chief justice.

It is not just the government that has been badly bruised in the Panama leaks saga: many top opposition leaders have also been muddled by the scandal, their high moral ground severely compromised. The latest disclosure about his offshore company has also landed Imran Khan in a political maelstrom and provided the government with an effective whip with which to beat its main tormentor.

There may not be any wrongdoing involved but the very fact that the PTI leader failed to declare it while bashing others for owning offshore companies exposed him to the allegation of being a hypocrite.

He is surely finding it hard to rationalise his decision not to disclose his own offshore investment.

With all the faces blackened in the fracas, it is difficult for the public to decide who is more dishonest.

It is quite interesting that the PPP has so far remained unblemished in the current offshore saga. It is not that its leaders are clean or have not been mentioned in the Panama Papers, but neither the government nor the PTI for different reasons want to target it. While being in the alliance has saved the party from any attack from the PTI, the government does not want to take on its former `friendly opposition` as Sharif battles it out with his main challenger.

It is, however, not clear how long the PPP would stick to the anti-government alliance with no clear political strategy. For many old stalwarts, the current hard-line stance is necessary to keep the party alive and stop defections to the PTI in Punjab. But this policy is also not without risk, specifically the risk of playing second fiddle to the PTI that wants to take the battle to the bitter end.

With the stand-off against the opposition becoming more serious, Nawaz Sharif is also feeling increasing heat from the military that is fast assuming the role of arbiter. The tension has been mounting since the army chief Gen Raheel Sharif made a rare public statement calling for across-the-board accountability. The government saw it as a warning.

Rumours about the growing civil and military divide gained further currency with a month-long gap in what had become almost a daily interaction between the two Sharifs.

The two finally met last week but it did not bring an end to the rumours. A deliberate leak of part of what is supposed to be a highly confidential one-on one meeting, and information conveyed later by sources that the general had urged the prime minister during the meeting to urgently resolve the crisis, has further vitiated the atmosphere.

With no resolution of the crisis in sight, there are fewer options now left for the prime minister. His defence in parliament seems to have further compounded his predicament. One is not sure how he can break the siege.•

The writer is an author and joumalist. zhussain100@yahoo.com Twitter:@hidhussain

This story was originally published by Dawn, Pakistan

A group of notorious gangsters has apparently brought the Punjab police toitsknees.A2,200-strong police force has retreated after losing several men since the operation against the Chotoo gang in the southern Punjab district of Rajanpur began earlier this month. The army is now being dragged into yet another law and order issue that the civilian agencies should have been able to deal with.

For years, the riverine area straddling three provinces has become a haven for criminals outside the government`s writ. Now, hundreds of troops backed by helicopter gunships are in pursuit of the outlaws in these `badlands`. The Chotoo gang saga that has dominated the media over the past week, overshadowing even the `Panamagate` scandal, is not just about the failure of the civilian law-enforcement agencies; it highlights the much greater predicament of shrinking governance space that goes beyond the lawless tribal regions.

There are many badlands across the country where the authority of the state is either non-existent or has become irrelevant, allowing criminal gangs and militant outfits to operate with impunity.

Army operations do not provide a long-term solution to this growing problem. The issue is not just the elimination of one criminal gang or militant outfit from a particular region, but how to restore the government`s authority. There is certainly no clear thinking on this critical issue.

For long, the Punjab government has been in a state of denial over lawlessness and the rising influence of sectarian and militant groups in south Punjab. The Chotoo gang has not emerged overnight. It seems highly improbable that a former police informer who heads a consortium of criminal gangs would be operating without the patronage of some local `influential`, which is quite common in such cases.

Interestingly, all police actions in the past ended in a deal with the gangs, thereby allowing the criminals greater space. In 2013, the gang attacked a police check post and abducted eight police officers. They were set free eight days later after the government released Chotoo`s detained relatives and agreed to give them safe passage.

It is quite intriguing how the criminals got access to sophisticated weapons that were used against the police this time, resulting in losses for the force. The gang is now engaging troops in fierce gun battles. It may be true that the heavily forested terrain has made the task of the police and the local administration much more difficult, but that cannot be used as an excuse for their failure. There are numerous other criminal gangs operating in south Punjab defying the claims of `all is well` in the country`s most powerful province.

Apparently, it was pressure from the military that finally pushed the provincial administration into action. But there is no indication yet of any crackdown on religious extremist groups, many of whom are believed to be closely connected with criminal gangs. There is a close nexus between crime and militancy and the problem of shrinking government authority cannot be effectively resolved without a coherent strategy. But neither the Punjab provincial administration nor the federal government is willing to come out from its state of denial to confront the problem effectively.

Over the past year, the issue of cracking down on extremist groups has been a major source of tension between the civil and military leadership. The tension mounted further following last month`s bombing of a public park in Lahore that killed dozens of people, mostly women and children. The military`s seemingly unilateral decision to launch a province wide crackdown on extremist groups brought tensions to a head.

Apparently, the situation has been defused after the provincial government agreed to the army`s demand, but the issue remains a major irritant. The provincial government claims that it is civilian agencies that are leading the actions with the backing of the army. But the decision to call in the army in Rajanpur exposes the limited capacity of civil law-enforcement agencies in dealing even with criminal groups, let alone organised militant and extremist outfits.

The army should be able to take out the Chotoo gang from the riverine area, but it would not be the end of the problem. With shrinking governance, some other gang may emerge once the army withdraws. Moreover, the problem is not limited to Rajanpur.

The absence of effective governance has created a vacuum that is often filled by militant groups. The most recent example is of Jamaatud Dawa holding so-called Sharia courts in Lahore and other parts of Punjab. The group, which is also on the terror watch list, is said to have now suspended those courts, but it is an example that could be emulated by other extremist groups if the slide continues.

Governance issues in other provinces particularly in Sindh and Balochistan seem far worse. As a result, the role of the army in internal security matters in those provinces has become more significant.

The Rangers are virtually running Karachi as civilian law-enforcement agencies have receded. Many parts of Pakistan`s biggest city and economic jugular had become no-go areas before the Rangers-led operation brought back some degree of normality.

While fully backing the Rangers` operation in Karachi, the federal government is reluctant to give the same powers to paramilitary forces in Punjab.

But with the army now fully engaged in the operation against the Chotoo gang, it will be extremely difficult for both the federal and Punjab governments to resist pressure from the military.

The operation against the Chotoo gang has laid bare the slide in the capacity of the civilian law-enforcement agencies to deal with armed outlaws. It has increased the dependence of the civil administration on the army. That may further stretch the army, which is already engaged in fighting insurgency in the northwest and Balochistan.•

The writer is an author and journalist.

This story was originally published by Dawn, Pakistan

The Panama Papers only confirm what has long been known. The unprecedented leak of confidential documents provides some insight into how the rich and powerful stash away their wealth in secret offshore companies. The trail leads to national leaders, top politicians, celebrities and businessmen around the world. Information gleaned from over 11 million documents from a Panama-based law firm is just the tip of the iceberg. The disclosure has triggered global investigations into secret offshore money.

Not surprisingly, the long list of those who use of fshore tax havens include family members and associates of Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, and the names of several other prominent politicians.

Although some information about the Sharif family`s foreign assets is already known, details of the offshore companies owned by them is shocking, and has generated a political storm in the country.

The companies owned by Sharif`s sons and daughter were reportedly used to acquire properties worth millions of pounds in Britain. While not directly named in the leaks, the revelations pertaining to his apparently massive family business abroad have certainly put the beleaguered prime minister in a tight spot. It seems hard to believe that Sharif has no connection whatsoever with the wealth belonging to his children. The defence offered by the family and government spokesmen has so far failed to answer basic questions about the money trail.

It is not just the nation`s first family that is under scrutiny the leaks have also exposed some 200 prominent Pakistani businessmen and politicians, raising questions aboutsources oftheir allegedhidden wealth. While the Saifullah family is on top of the list, former interior minister Rehman Malik, and many close associates of former president Asif Ali Zardari also figure in the scandal. Most shockingly, however, is the inclusion of a retired and a sitting high court judge in the list.

The leaks provide just a glimpse of the money that has been taken out of the country. The revelationsgive credence to suspicions about the relationship between power and greed.

Surely it is not illegal to invest in offshore companies. But it is a fact that there are myriad ways in which ill-gotten wealth is channelled through offshore companies. The Panama Papers show that many dictators, drug traffickers and criminals have exploited offshore havens to hide their wealth. The leaks have linked over 70 current and former heads of state, including some of the most infamous dictators, to billions of dollars parked in offshore accounts.

Indeed, this is not the first time that information about the offshore financial assets of Pakistan`s political leaders has surfaced. It was revealed during the Swiss money-laundering case that Benazir Bhutto and her husband Asif Zardari were the beneficiaries of an offshore company registered in the British Virgin Islands, through which alleged kickbacks on government contracts were channelled.

PPP leaders have denied the charge. But the latest leaks include the names of Benazir Bhutto and some of her close family members. It was not surprising to see the names of some of Zardari`s closest associates on the list.

Nawaz Sharif was also accused and investigated for money laundering in the 1990s. The investigation was, however, never completed after Sharif returned to power for the second time. A major defence of Pakistani leaders was that the cases were politically motivated. Of course, there is no denying that anti-corruption campaigns have often been used by successive governments to beat down their political opponents. But there is little doubt that most of the corruption cases against political leaders were valid, though they were never convicted by a court of law. It is also true that the corruption cases were used as a blackmailing tool and for political bargaining.

This biggest data leak in history has triggered protests in various countries. Thousands of people came out on the streets in Iceland demanding the resignation of their prime minister after a leakeddocument showed his wife owned a secret offshore company. France, India, Australia and New Zealand have ordered investigations against their nationals named in the Panama Papers for money laundering and tax evasion. British Prime Minister David Cameron has also come under pressure af ter the disclosure that his late father invested money in an offshore company in order to evade taxes.

Interestingly, the skeletons tumbling out of Panamanian closets have brought the PML-N and the PPP together in denouncing the leaks as a conspiracy to malign politicians. No one, however, can beat Rehman Malik, who has declared the Panama files a `RAW conspiracy` against him. The leaks tell a rags-to-riches story of a former FIA official who later became the country`s interior minister.

Considering his alleged involvement in shady business dealings, is it a surprise that he was the former PPP government`s most powerful member? The Panama leaks have exposed the links between power and greed. Not surprisingly, the offshore financial regime has become the biggest haven for often ill-gotten money accumulated by political leaders and businessmen. The Panama Papers have provided the most substantive evidence of how billions of dollars were taken out of the country. It may be true that not all the money invested in offshore companies was obtained through illegal means. But there is still a need for an impartial and across-the-board investigation.

Crying themselves hoarse over perceived conspiracies does not clear Pakistani politicians of allegations of misdeeds. Sharif needs to explain how some of the offshore companies were formed in the early 1990s, during his first term in office. It is hard for him to completely disassociate himself from the business empire that his family has built, in Britain and other countries over the past two decades, under the umbrella of offshore companies. The power elite should not wait for public dismay over the scandal to turn into outrage.

The writer is an author and journalist.

This story was originally published by Dawn, Pakistan

By Zahid Hussain
Feb 24 2016 (Dawn, Pakistan)

More than 1,000 women are killed in the name of honourin this country every year, according to official figures. But the actual numbers are believed to be much higher. Saba Qaiser, 19, would have been one of them had she not miraculously survived drowning in a river after having been shot in the head. Unsurprisingly, those who tried to finish her off were none other than her own relatives her father and uncle as happens in most such cases of `honour`crime.

Sharmeen Obald Chinoy`s brilliant 40-minute documentary A Girl in the River: the Price of Forgiveness is the story of that 19-year-old from Gujranwala. Nominated for an Academy Award, the short film is surely a powerful portrayal of the plight of a victim of honour crime. But it is not just the story of a brave girl who defied death and is now living happily with the man she loved and risked her life for. She is back to life with a scar left by the bullet that pierced her cheekbone, but is still haunted by theincident.

It is more about the law of forgiveness that protects the killers. Saba`s father and uncle are now free and with no remorse for what they had done.

Under the pressure of local elders and the clan she has forgiven her tormentors. Perhaps they would have killed Saba in the second attempt and even then would have gotten away with murder using the provision of the law that allows a family member to forgive the perpetrator.

By reaching her, Ms Chinoy may have saved the life of that girl from Gujranwala. But hundreds of other women 1(illed every year in this land of the pure are not that lucl

The documentary reveals the various forces that come into play in this 1(ind of situation. While the law of forgiveness marginalises the role of the state, it gives sway to the local elders who force a compromise. The odds are invariably stacked against the victim and the sympathies are with the perpetrators as happened in the case of Saba. The village elders who played the role of arbiter arranged the compromise were clearly on the side of the father whose honour, they argued, was violated by her action.

Poverty and circumstances too become a factor in limiting options for the victim. Saba would never have forgiven her tormentors had she not been afraid of being shunned by the community and the state being unable to provide her protection. She also faced the traumatic reality of her own father having tried to kill her, and then the family ostracising her. The offenders come out triumphant in the bargain while the onus lies on the victim.

Of course, there was no question of shame and remorse; instead the brutal act appears to have further empowered Saba`s father who felt that he had done something right that earned him immense respect in the community. He boasted that hisaction had improved the prospect of marriage for his other daughter.

Such grandstanding by a criminal is perhaps the most disturbing part of the documentary. One can hardly find any such example of the state being a silent spectator in the face of such defiance. One wonders if the murderers would have had the same response from the community had they been punished for the crime. Perhaps the narrative would have been very different if there was no legal provision of forgiveness.

The problem with `honour` killing as described by Ms Chinoy is that it`s considered to be in the domain of the home. A father kills his daughter or a brother kills his sister and nobody files a case as they feel it would bring shame to the family. This mindset is not just regressive, it actually provides impunity to the murderers.

For long, human rights groups have been fighting to get honour killing to be treated as a crime against the state to make the provision of forgiveness ineffective But it seems hard to convince the lawmakers. The biggest contribution of the documentary is that it has opened up a national discourse that crimes against women have nothing to do with honour.

Whether or not the documentary will fetch a second Oscar for Ms Chinoy, the film has already made a powerful impact even drawing the prime minister`s attention to the issue. One is, however, not sure if it is the Oscar nomination or the message in the film itself has prompted Sharif to recognise the killings in the name of honour as a serious problem.

One hopes that his interest goes beyond screening the film at the Prime Minister`s Office. There is an urgent need to amend the law to remove the provision of forgiveness that empowers people like Saba`s father.

The writer is an author and joumalist.

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