A celebration erupted when the Dinka Ngok leaders announced they would be moving forward with the unilateral referendum in the disputed Abyei region which both Sudan and South Sudan lay claim to. Credit: Andrew Green/IPS

By Andrew Green
JUBA, Nov 4 2013 (IPS)

The non-binding referendum in Abyei – where people voted overwhelmingly to join South Sudan – and the ensuing celebration, has brought little immediate resolution to the long-festering Abyei problem.

Instead, the spectre of potential conflict looms between the Dinka Ngok and the Khartoum-allied Misseriya tribe, who also lay claim to the territory.

Both Sudan and South Sudan claim the 10,000 square kilometre area, which is home to the Dinka Ngok and – seasonally – to the Misseriya, who bring their cattle there for grazing.

As the Human Security Baseline Assessment (HSBA), which provides independent analysis on issues facing the Sudans, has pointed out, Abyei’s grazing season starts this month. Soon the Misseriya will come into contact with some of the tens of thousands of Dinka Ngok who returned to the area for the referendum. HSBA warns this will “pose great challenges for UNISFA” – the United Nations Interim Security Force for Abyei.“Both governments are not part of the referendum, so there is [no] disturbance that is going to happen.” -- Mawien Makol Arik, South Sudan's foreign affairs ministry spokesperson

Abyei Referendum High Committee spokesman Luka Biong acknowledged that violence is one possible – though unlikely – outcome of the vote. He told IPS a Misseriya attack could “spark a small war or escalate into a bigger war if the South is prepared to fight.” But neither government is interested in another battle, he added.

Biong explained that the Dinka Ngok leadership was under no illusion the referendum would settle the Abyei question once and for all. That, however, was not really the point.

“There’s a possibility this could [create] real pressure,” he said, adding that officials will have to “see the consequence of what we have said.” And in that they have been successful. Though they are trying, the Dinka Ngok’s actions will be hard for the two governments – especially Juba – to ignore.

In the peace agreement that ended the decades-long Sudanese civil war, the Abyei community was promised a referendum to coincide with the January 2011 ballot to determine the future of southern Sudan. The south got their vote and promptly split from Sudan. But there was no referendum for Abyei.

Last September a panel of African Union (AU) experts called for a Dinka Ngok-only referendum for October this year. However, the AU backed away from the proposal when Khartoum objected to the exclusion of the Misseriya.

The Dinka Ngok leadership pressed ahead with the referendum, despite warnings from the AU that the move could threaten peace in the region. And on Oct. 31, Abyei Referendum High Committee officials announced the results of their hastily-organised, unilateral referendum to determine the future of the disputed area.

The vote only included the pro-South Dinka Ngok community and, as anticipated, the decision was nearly unanimous – more than 63,000 people voted to join South Sudan. Twelve people voted for Abyei to remain part of Sudan, officials reported.

As soon as the votes were read, leaders of the nine Dinka Ngok kingdoms signed pledges declaring their intention to join South Sudan.

Officials in Juba, unwilling to upset their relationship with Khartoum, made their feelings about the referendum known by keeping silent.

But Biong is hoping that the Dinka Ngok vote will trigger the AU to re-start negotiations between Khartoum and Juba. There is evidence this is already happening.

An AU team is set to arrive in Abyei Tuesday, Nov. 5, for a two-day visit. Ahead of the visit, they have already called for the U.N. Security Council to extend its support to the September 2012 proposal, which calls for “Abyei residents to determine their political future, and the right of continued access for migratory populations.”

Bringing Khartoum and Juba to the table will be difficult, though. The notoriously chilly relationship between the two governments is currently thawing, signalled by Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir’s visit to Juba in October.

Both countries are benefiting from the détente. When landlocked South Sudan seceded, it took with it three-quarters of Sudan’s oil reserves. But Sudan retained the only pipeline South Sudan has for exporting its crude. Early last year Juba cut off oil production, citing the high fees Khartoum was charging to use the pipeline. The issue was resolved after more than a year and production restarted in March. So far South Sudan has made 1.3 billion dollars from renewed sales, according to the Ministry of Petroleum, of which it has paid 329 million dollars to Sudan.

Dr. Alfred Lokuji, a professor of peace and rural development at the University of Juba, told IPS that in light of the current situation, both sides will “be careful about trying to escalate things” when it comes to Abyei.

The leaders of the two countries have skirted the Abyei question. They have called for a joint administration and police force for the region, but failed to set a timeline. They did not even broach the issue of a referendum, though Juba has voiced support for the AU proposal in the past.

Mawien Makol Arik, South Sudan’s foreign affairs ministry spokesperson, told IPS that the government would not allow the Dinka Ngok vote to upset the improving relations.

“The two presidents have laid out a communiqué to actually expedite the Abyei administration to be set up,” he said. “Both governments are not part of the referendum, so there is [no] disturbance that is going to happen.”

While Khartoum may be able to get away with not immediately addressing the issue, Juba might not have that luxury. There are deep ties between Abyei and South Sudan, with many members of the Dinka Ngok serving in high-profile government positions where they are well positioned to lobby the government.

And President Salva Kiir’s political rivals have already signalled they are prepared to make political hay out of the issue if South Sudan decides to keep quiet about Abyei.

William Rial Liah, the secretary-general of the opposition Democratic Unionist Party, travelled to Abyei in the days ahead of the referendum to show his support.

“We are behind the Abyei people,” he told IPS. “Let the Abyei people go with this decision and we back them until the end.”

While the outcome of the referendum may never be recognised, Dinka Ngok leaders may have gotten exactly what they wanted out of the vote: bringing diplomatic and – in Juba’s case – political pressure to bear so they finally get the referendum they were promised.

A woman registering to vote at a school in the border town of Abyei on Oct. 20. She was one of more than 100 people living in the town who showed up to register on the first day as people voted whether to join Sudan or South Sudan. Credit: Andrew Green/IPS

By Andrew Green
ABEYI, Oct 30 2013 (IPS)

When Chris Bak returned two weeks ago to the disputed border town of Abyei, which voted this week on whether to join Sudan or South Sudan, he barely recognised it as the place where he grew up. “Everything is dirty,” he told IPS. “We were just going around and around, but we didn’t [recognise] this place.”

The town lies in the centre of the Abyei region, a 10,000 square kilometre area that straddles the border between Sudan and South Sudan. Both countries lay claim to the area, with its oil reserves and vast tracts of fertile land. A 2005 peace agreement ended the decades-long Sudanese civil war and paved the way for South Sudan’s independence, but failed to resolve Abyei’s fate.

Since he returned, Bak has been camping out in an abandoned classroom, hoping it does not rain because the school has no roof. He is sharing the room with a friend who is showing symptoms of malaria. Bak has been trying to track down a doctor, but after three days of asking around he had still not located anyone.

“There are difficulties that face us,” he said. “We need to bring up Abyei.”“The children, the old men just die. There’s no medical care. It’s not good.” -- Deng Agos Lowal, member of the region’s Social Welfare Commission

Bak, 25, returned to Abyei after five years away to participate in a referendum initially proposed by the African Union (AU) for this month, which is meant to decide the fate of the contested region.

But Sudan refused to sign on, as the referendum would have excluded members of the pro-Sudan Misseriya community, who visit Abyei seasonally to graze their cows. In the face of Khartoum’s intransigence, the AU did not organise the vote or present a new proposal.

That did not staunch the enthusiasm of the majority Dinka Ngok community who pressed ahead with a unilateral referendum that ended on Tuesday Oct. 29.

An organisation of tribal leaders, calling themselves the Abyei Referendum High Committee, began organising trips last month for people who wanted to take part in the vote. They estimate they have brought 100,000 people back to the area, though it is impossible to verify that number.

They plan to announce the results before the end of the month and it is likely they will vote to join South Sudan.

However, the AU has “strongly condemned” the move, calling it an “illegal action” and warning that it could threaten peace in the region. South Sudan has said it will refuse to acknowledge the results.

“If the people of Abyei decide, we will see to whom will they direct their results, because they said they will do it without the government of South Sudan and without the government of Sudan,” South Sudan’s government spokesman Michael Makuei Lueth said last week. “And if it is done without us, to whom will they direct their results?”

Dr. Alfred Lokuji, a professor of peace and rural development at the University of Juba, told IPS that the vote “is not going to accomplish much of anything” as both the AU and Juba have made it clear they will not recognise the outcome.

He does not anticipate any violence to result from the vote. However, he described the unilateral move as “symbolic,” showing the Dinka Ngok community is determined to have the situation resolved.

Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir travelled to Juba last week for a meeting with South Sudan’s President Salva Kiir. At the end of the summit, the two leaders announced plans to move ahead with a joint administration and police force for Abyei, though they failed to set a timeline on when that would happen.

The Dinka Ngok leadership, tired of living in limbo, have rejected the proposal.

In part that is because they no longer have the luxury of waiting for Juba, Khartoum and the international community to reach a permanent solution.

In 2008, fighting broke out in this area between militias supported by the Sudanese government and forces from what was then southern Sudan. Human Rights Watch estimates 60,000 people fled the violence. At the time, Bak and his family fled to Aweil, which is a five-hour drive west of Abyei and is located in South Sudan.

Fighting erupted again in 2011, only weeks before South Sudan officially split from Sudan to become the world’s newest country. The battles left Abyei town in ruins. The ground is dotted with concrete foundations where houses used to stand. A toppled red-and-white cell phone tower rests crookedly on top of trees and buildings.

Having brought thousands of people back to Abyei to see the area’s devastation first-hand, the Dinka Ngok leadership are facing pressure from people like Michael Acuil Deng, an engineer who has been living in Juba, to make something happen now.

“You see around, we have [to do] a lot of planning for our area to be the best,” he told IPS. “Now everything is like the desert. It’s crushed. Now we start from the scratch. We have to build the area.”

Development is difficult in a no man’s land, though.

Deng Agos Lowal stayed in the area despite the fighting. He is a member of the region’s Social Welfare Commission, a locally-appointed body that attempts to provide basic services to people. With no support from either Juba or Khartoum, he said there is little they can do to actually help people, let alone track the fluid population.

“The children, the old men just die,” he told IPS. “There’s no medical care. It’s not good.”

A United Nations peacekeeping force is visible here, but Lowal said the region’s uncertain future has kept most humanitarian organisations out. All anyone can do, he said, is wait for the vote to decide Abyei’s fate. When that is resolved the rebuilding of Abyei can begin.

Despite the warnings from Juba and Khartoum, Dinka Ngok leaders are holding out hope that the international community will eventually recognise the outcome of their unilateral referendum.

At the very least, Dinka Ngok paramount chief Bulabek Deng Kuol said he hopes the vote means the regional and international community will no longer ignore Abyei’s needs.

“We are excited to rebuild, to give our energy for everything,” he told IPS. “We hope all the organisations … are rushing here to give some help to the people here.”