By Roberto Savio
ROME, Apr 20 2015 (IPS)

This month’s World Economic Outlook released by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) only confirms that consequences of the collapse of the financial system, which started six years ago, are serious. And they are accentuated by the aging of the population, not only in Europe but also in Asia, the slowing of productivity and weak private investment.

Roberto Savio

Average growth before the financial crisis in 2008 was around 2.4 percent. It fell to 1.3 percent between 2008 and 2014 and now the estimates are that it will stabilise at 1.6 percent until 2020, in what economists call the “new normal”. In other words, “normality” is now unemployment, anaemic growth and, obviously, a difficult political climate.

For the emerging countries, the overall picture does not look much better. It is expected that potential growth is expected to decline further, from an average of about 6.5 percent between 2008 and 2014 to 5.2 percent during the period 2015-2020.

The case of China is the best example. Growth is expected to fall from an average 8.3 percent in the last 10 years to somewhere around 6.8 percent. The result is that the Chinese contraction has worsened the balance of exports of raw materials everywhere.

The crisis is especially strong in Latin America, and in Brazil the fall in exports has contributed to worsening the country’s serious crisis and increasing the unpopularity of President Dilma Rousseff, already high because of economic mismanagement and the Petrobras scandal.“Progressive parties were able to build their success during economic expansion but the Left has not developed much economic science on what to do in period of crisis”

This, by the way, opens up a reflection which is fundamental. From Marx to Keynes, redistribution theories were all basically built on stable or expanding economies.

Progressive parties were able to build their success during economic expansion but the Left has not developed much economic science on what to do in period of crisis. What it tends to do is mimic the receipts and proposals from the Right and, when the crisis is over, it has lost its identity and has declined in the eyes of the electorate.

From this perspective, the situation in Europe is exemplary. All those right-wing xenophobic parties which have sprouted up – even in countries long held to be models of democracy such as the Nordic countries – have developed since 2008, the beginning of the financial crisis. In the same period of time, all progressive parties have lost weight and credibility. And now that the IMF sees some improvement in the European economy, it is not the traditional progressive parties that are the beneficiaries.

The term that the IMF gives to the current economic moment is “new mediocrity” – which is a franker way of saying “new normal” – and it observes that in the coming five years, we will face serious problems for public policies like fiscal sustainability and job creation.

In fact, every day, the macroeconomic figures, which have become the best way to hide social realities, are becoming less and less realistic if we go back to microeconomics as we have done during the last 50 years.

The best example is the United Kingdom, which is the champion of liberalism. Each year it has cut public spending and now claims to have growth in employment, with 600,000 new jobs in the last year. The only problem is that if you look into the structure of those jobs, you will find that the large majority are part-time or underpaid, and employment in the public sector is at its lowest since 1999.

A clear indicator is the number of people who visit the food banks created to meet the needs of the indigent. In the world’s sixth largest economy, their numbers have grown from 20,000 before the crisis seven years ago to over one million last year. And the same has happened all over Europe, albeit to a lesser extent in the Nordic countries.

U.K. economists have published studies on how austerity has affected growth. According to the Office for Budgetary Responsibility, established by the U.K. government, austerity blocked economic growth by one percent between 2011 and 2012. But, according to Simon Wren-Lewis of Oxford University, the figure is actually about five percent (or 100 billion pounds).

In other words, fiscal austerity reduces growth, and this creates large deficits which call for more fiscal austerity. It is a trap that Nobel laureate Keynesian economists Joseph Stiglitz and Paul Krugman have described in detail to no avail. We are all following the “liberal order” of Germany, which think its reality should be the norm and that deviations should be punished.

Now, while we can all agree that much of this is obvious to the average citizen in terms of its impact on everyday life, what is important and new is that the IMF, the fiscal guardian which has imposed the Washington Consensus (basically a formula of austerity plus free market at any cost) all over the Third World with tragic results, has woken up to reality.

Don’t get me wrong – I’m not implying that the IMF is becoming a progressive organisation, but there are signs that an important pillar of neoliberal thinking is vacillating.

Of course, those responsible for the global crisis – bankers – have come out with impunity. The world has exacted over three trillion dollars from its citizens to put banks back on their feet. The over 140 billion dollars in fines that banks have paid since the beginning of the crisis is the quantitative measure of illegal and criminal activities.

The United Nations calculates that the financial crisis has created at least 200 million new poor, several hundred millions of unemployed, and many more precarious jobs, especially for young people. And, yet, nobody has paid, while prisons are full of people who are there for minor theft, the social impact of which is infinitesimal by comparison.

In 2014, James Morgan, the boss of Morgan Stanley, cashed in 22.5 million dollars, Lloyd Blanfein, the boss of Goldman Sachs, 24 million, James Dimon, the boss of J.P. Morgan, 20 million. The most exploited of all, Brian Moynihan of the Bank of America, a paltry 13 million. Nobody stops the growth of bankers.

Edited by Phil Harris   

The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of, and should not be attributed to, IPS – Inter Press Service. 

Excerpt:

For anyone who might not have realised it yet, the current crisis is demonstrating beyond a shadow of a doubt that the financial markets are the lead players in the current economic situation in Europe. Power has passed from the politicians to speculators and crooked bankers. This is a fundamental change.

Ignacio Ramonet

Every single day a staggering quantity of money floods through the markets – for example, seven billion euros worth of eurozone governments’ debt alone, according to the European Central Bank. The daily collective decisions of these markets can now topple governments, dictate policies, and subjugate entire populations.

Moreover, these new “lords of the earth” have no concern whatsoever for the common good. Solidarity is not their problem, much less the preservation of the welfare state. Greed is the only motive for their actions. Speculators and bankers, driven by a hunger for profits, behave with total impunity, diving like birds of prey on target after target.

Since the crisis broke in 2008 no serious reform has been imposed to either regulate the markets or rein in the bankers. It is apparent that banks play a clear role in the economic system and that their traditional activities ­ encouraging savings, providing families with credit, financing businesses, spurring commerce ­ are constructive.

However, since the dawn in the 1980s of the “universal bank”, which added speculation and investment to the above mix of functions, risks to customers’ savings shot up dramatically along with deceit, scandals, and fraud.

One of the most shameless acts was carried out by Goldman Sachs, which now dominates the financial universe. In 2001 it helped Greece to cook its books so that Athens would meet the conditions to join the euro.

In under seven years, this scam was discovered and the reality exploded like a bomb. The consequence: a debt crisis engulfed almost an entire continent; Greece was sacked and forced onto its knees; recession struck, with massive unemployment and plummeting buying power of workers; restructuring and drastic cuts in social services followed, with widespread misery and the imposition of structural adjustment programmes.

How were the perpetrators of this devastating swindle punished? Mario Draghi, the ex-vice president of Goldman Sachs for Europe who was aware of most of the fraud, was named president of the European Central Bank. Meanwhile, for its crooked window-dressing for Greece, Goldman charged 600 million euros. The story has a clear moral: when it comes to major rip-offs by the banks, impunity is the rule.

For confirmation look no further than the thousands of Spanish depositors who bought stocks in Bankia the day it was listed on the stock market. It was known that the bank had no credibility and that according to the ratings agencies its stock was just a step above junk.

But the depositors trusted Rodrigo Rato, then president of Bankia and ex-managing director of the International Monetary Fund, who proclaimed on May 2, 2012 (five days before resigning in response to market pressure and just before the Spanish government had to inject 23.5 billion euros to keep it out of bankruptcy): “In terms of both liquidity and solvency, we are in a very robust position.”

It is known that a year earlier, in July 2011, Bankia apparently passed the “stress test” imposed by the European Banking Authority (EBA) on the 91 largest financial businesses in Europe. This should give an idea of the incompetence and ineptitude of the EBA, the European agency charged with guaranteeing the health of our banks.

But that wasn’t the end of the scandals. Indeed, new bank frauds have come to light in recent months. HSBC was accused of money laundering for Mexican narco-traffickers. J.P. Morgan engaged in massive speculation and unprecedented risk-taking that led to losses of 7.5 billion euros and ruined dozens of clients. The same happened at Knight Capital, which lost over 323 million euros in a single night because of a mistake by its automatic trading programme.

But the scandal that is most infuriating on a global scale is the Libor. The Association of British Bankers issues each day what is called the “London Interbank Offered Rate”, an average calculated by Reuters financial news agency of the interest rates obtained by the 16 largest banks for borrowing.

As the rate at which the major banks lend money to each other, Libor constitutes a fundamental benchmark for the entire world financial system. In particular, it is used to calculate mortgage rates for homeowners. Worldwide, Libor influences some 350 trillion euros in credit and any variation in it can have a colossal effect.

How did this scam work? Some of the 91 Libor banks colluded in lying about the rates they were obtaining, thus manipulating not only Libor but all derivative contracts and the credit rates for businesses and families alike. This went on for years.

Investigations have shown that about ten major international banks ­ Barclays, Citigroup, JP Morgan Chase, Bank of America, Deutsche Bank, HSBC, Credit Suisse, UBS, Societe Generale, Credit Agricole and the Royal Bank of Scotland ­ participated in the racket.

What we see from the Libor disaster is that criminal behaviour has infected the very heart of the financial industry, and that probably millions of families were issued mortgages at incorrect rates. Many had to leave their homes. Others were evicted because they couldn’t pay artificially-manipulated interest rates. And once again the authorities charged with overseeing the operation of the markets turned a blind eye to this crime. No one has been punished beyond four schemers.

How long can democracies continue to allow such impunity? In 1932 in the United States, Ferdinand Pecora, son of Italian immigrants who became a prosecutor in New York, was named by president Herbert Hoover to investigate the responsibility of the banks for the crash of 1929. His report was overwhelming. It was he who coined the term “banksters” (out of “bankers'” and “gangsters”).

On the basis of this report, president Franklin D. Roosevelt acted to protect the American people from the risks of speculation. He passed the “Glass-Stegall Act” which (until it was repealed in 1999) required the separation of commercial banking from investment banking. What government of the eurozone would dare pass similar legislation today? (END/COPYRIGHT IPS)

* Ignacio Ramonet is editor of Le Monde diplomatique en español.