Muscovites at the entrance to Red Square. Many of Russia’s growing middle class and young people have been dismayed by the recent military invasion of Crimea and President Vladimir Putin’s aggressive policy on Ukraine. Credit: Pavol Stracansky/IPS

By Pavol Stracansky
MOSCOW, May 13 2014 (IPS)

As Russia faces harsh sanctions and growing international isolation over its annexation of Crimea and support of separatists in eastern Ukraine, economists and sociologists are warning that the Kremlin’s international policies may fuel a potentially devastating brain drain.

Many of Russia’s growing middle class and young people, especially in the country’s major cities, have been dismayed by the recent military invasion of Crimea and President Vladimir Putin’s aggressive policy on Ukraine.

And they fear that recently-imposed Western sanctions, though not yet having a major effect on normal life in Russia, could in time wreak havoc on an economy which is already on the verge of recession, threatening their careers and job prospects.

This has already led some to contemplate leaving.“The ideological climate needs to be changed so that people who have left feel comfortable returning to Russia.” -- Andrei Kortunov, head of the Russian International Affairs Council

Roman Kramskoy, a doctor in Novorossiysk in southern Russia, told IPS that he would soon be moving to Germany for a new job as he wanted to “leave for the West for more peaceful circumstances”.

“I wouldn’t say the decision is directly connected with the recent political situation and sanctions against Russia, but it was the final straw which made me take this move.”

He is far from the only one. Local media has reported that some firms, which help relocate Russians abroad, have seen a dramatic rise in enquiries about leaving the country during the first quarter of this year.

Meanwhile, businessmen with internationally trading companies have spoken in the local media about their fears that the economic sanctions imposed by the West will damage their businesses. Those who have their own ventures and assets abroad have said it is now easier for them to relocate abroad to continue their operations than to stay in Russia and risk losing partnerships.

On internet forums, emigration is a major topic of discussion, especially among young people.

Zhenyia Morozova, an 18-year-old student in Moscow, told IPS that she had been considering studying art in London when she was older. But, she said, the imposition of sanctions had prompted her to speed up her preparations to leave.

“The news of these sanctions has worried me and I have started to gather all the information I need about studying in London and have spoken to my parents about money to finance it. I don’t want my dream of studying in London destroyed because of sanctions,” she said.

People line the streets in Sevastopol, Crimea, to capture a glimpse of Russian President Vladimir Putin in his cavalcade as he arrives to celebrate Victory Day. But experts warn that the annexation of Crimea and subsequent Western sanctions could be prompting a brain drain from Russia. Credit: Alexey Yakushechkin/IPS

Any brain drain would be a major problem for Russia. It is already struggling with a shrinking and ageing population – according to United Nations estimates, Russia’s population is set to decline by up to 40 percent between now and 2050. But the effects on its economy could be devastating as it is the brightest and most creative – those with the greatest potential to generate wealth and economic growth – who appear most willing to leave.

According to a 2013 poll by independent polling organisation, Levada, almost a quarter of Russians had considered moving abroad. But the figure was higher among young Russians. Of those who had or were definitely emigrating, almost half were between the ages of 20 and 35.

Professor Andrey Korotayev, an expert on socio-politics at the Russian State University for Humanities in Moscow, told IPS: “For the development of any modern economy, transfer of high-skilled labour is essential.

“What Russia needs is for people in high-skilled sectors of the economy and business to go to the West, gain skills and experience in major corporations etc. and then return, transferring their knowledge and experience and benefiting the Russian economy.”

But in the wake of the Crimea annexation, experts say that some of those planning to leave will now be doing so for good and some of those who have already left will reconsider their plans to return.

Andrei Kortunov, head of the Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC) in Moscow, told IPS: “It is certainly the case that there are those who are going to leave because of recent events, but there will also be those who have left who will decide not to come back because they are concerned about the political climate in Russia.”

The Kremlin is aware of the potential problems Russia could face from a brain drain and local politicians, including Prime Minister Dmitri Medvedev, have spoken of the need to implement reforms and take measures to ensure students and talented professionals stay in the country.

But experts say that, regardless of what happens with Russian involvement in Ukraine, there will have to be a major change in the political and social climate in Russia to either lure those that have left the country back or prevent people from leaving in the first place.

As well as a belligerent foreign policy, Putin has overseen a crackdown on rights since his return to the presidency in 2012 and this has intensified dramatically since the start of the Euromaidan protests and subsequent regime change in neighbouring Ukraine.

The last two months has seen a raft of laws proposed which would severely restrict freedoms of assembly and expression, including a ban on the dissemination of any negative information about the government and Russia’s military as well as the introduction of lengthy jail sentences for minor offences related to unauthorised protests.

The Kremlin has also recently moved to have the websites of independent news outlets and political opposition groups blocked and bring the internet under its control with a set of draconian laws on web use. These came just days after the head of Russia‘s biggest social network, Pavel Durov, left the country after a clash with the state security services over handing over internet users’ data.

Experts say that issues like this need to be addressed to ensure that emigrants will want to return to Russia.

“The ideological climate needs to be changed so that people who have left feel comfortable returning to Russia,” Kortunov said.

As the European Union accuses Hungary of shifting towards authoritarianism, a spike in emigration from the country has led many to speak of a politically motivated exodus. Others suggest that economic conditions play a role in the westward flow of brainpower that is leaving Hungary’s future uncertain.

Passengers wait at Nyugati (“Western”) train station in Budapest, Hungary. Credit: Zoltán Dujisin/IPS

Observers agree that ever since the conservative party Fidesz won a two-thirds majority in parliament in 2010, the government has taken many steps to concentrate power, including by limiting the independence of the judiciary as well as freedom of speech.

The government also approved a new constitution that enshrines the values of Christianity, family and patriotism, having drafted it without consulting other parties or civil society groups.

“We are thinking of leaving the country,” says Sára, a young mother in her thirties who lives in Újlipotváros, one of Budapest’s preferred districts among the liberal intelligentsia and middle classes. “My partner, my fourteen-month-old child and I are no longer considered a family under the new constitution,” she explains.

“It’s not just that we can’t pay taxes together. The feeling also makes us mad – with what right does this government say we are not a family? While the rest of Europe is enlarging the definition of family to even include homosexuals, we are going in the opposite direction.”

Many have already made the decision Sára is now considering, but the real reasons behind the emigration phenomenon remain the object of a heated political debate.

While official estimates state that 300,000 Hungarians live abroad, Gyorgy Matolcsy, governor of the Central Bank, recently spoke of half a million Hungarians leaving their homeland in recent years, which would constitute 5 percent of Hungary’s population of 10 million.

Currently about 250,000 Hungarians are registered abroad, although real numbers are likely higher because many migrants do not want authorities to know they left in order not to preclude current or future state benefits.

Austria, Germany and the United Kingdom are the preferred destinations for these immigrants. London may be home to up to 200,000 Hungarians, so many that it is popularly referred to as the second largest Hungarian city."My partner, my fourteen-month-old child and I are no longer considered a family under the new constitution."
-- Sára, a young mother

Yet unlike other countries in the post-communist region, Hungarians have traditionally resisted migrating, partly due to the strength of Hungary’s social safety net, but also for cultural reasons.

Politicians are struggling to explain why this tendency has suddenly changed. The debate has erupted around the worrisome 56 percent of students who consider leaving Hungary, a group that has often participated in international programs and can easily integrate in Western European labour markets.

“The issue has become politicised, but it is underlined by economic and structural factors,” Béla Soltész, a migration researcher at Corvinus University in Budapest, told IPS.

“There is an opposition discourse which blames the phenomenon on bad management by the government, particularly in the education sector, whereas the government pushes the view that those leaving the country are becoming unfaithful to it, putting their individualistic and materialistic needs in front of the good of the country,” Soltész says.

“Both are simplifying the issue,” he adds. “This is a 10-year phenomenon that began gradually with the opening of the European Union’s labour market. In some ways Hungary is catching up with the region.”

Although reliable data on them are lacking, many of the emigrants are well-educated opposition sympathisers with access to social media, which gives greater visibility to the “best and brightest” in the debate.

Some in this group have been affected by recent educational reforms – especially since students now have to sign contracts in order to benefit from state support as they go through their education and must pay back this support if they move abroad.

But in a country where doctors make an average of 700 euros per month, the role of high unemployment and a lack of economic and professional prospects may be more significant than political discontent.

Hungary’s gross domestic product decreased by 1.7 percent in 2012 and no growth is expected in 2013. Unemployment now exceeds 10 percent and is three times higher in the case of the younger generation.

“People with technical formation can nowadays very easily compare their salary with that of their peers in Norway, the UK or Holland, where pay can be ten times higher. And then they may blame the government for these differences,” Soltész told IPS.

While recent youth migration may be short-term, the growth in Hungarian professional networks abroad might turn it into a more permanent phenomenon in the future, Soltész warned. “The most skilled and bright are leaving and the remittances are not that high.”

“Reinsertion could be difficult because the labor market is very informally structured,” Soltész noted. “Qualifications obtained abroad are less important or understood than personal contacts.”

“And we don’t know what will happen to the people who do their whole education abroad and build their professional contacts there.”