A station under construction for the railway line between western Mexico City and Toluca, the capital of the neighboring state of Mexico. This passenger and freight route has been under construction since 2014, and its cost has tripled due to technical issues and opposition from local communities. Image: SNT-Movilidad Urbana

By Emilio Godoy
MEXICO, Apr 7 2025 (IPS)

Retired blacksmith and mechanic José Hernández nostalgically recalls the passenger trains that once passed through his hometown of Huamantla in the state of Tlaxcala, southeastern Mexico.

“By the age of 15 or 16, I was already using the train. It was the railway that came from Veracruz, passed near Huamantla, and reached” the east of Mexico City, the 99-year-old local chronicler told IPS from his town of over 98,000 inhabitants, located some 160 kilometers from the capital.

The route belonged to the then-state-owned Ferrocarril Mexicano, inaugurated in the mid-19th century and operational until 1976, when passenger trains began to be abandoned in favor of private bus companies.

Freight trains still run through Huamantla, carrying timber, oil, and various goods in containers."They are not profitable, but they are social projects. It is important to evaluate how they will be implemented to combine commercial and economic elements and thus reduce government subsidies." —Jaime Paredes

Hernández, who served as Huamantla’s mayor from 1989 to 1991, used to travel to the nearby town of Apizaco, also in Tlaxcala, aboard coal-burning locomotives—a 30-minute journey where a ticket to Mexico City cost about three dollars in today’s money.

“We miss the passenger service; hopefully, it will return soon. Everything in Huamantla is abandoned now. The train used to stop here to load water from a deep well,” he lamented.

To Hernández’s delight, the government of Claudia Sheinbaum, in office since October, is promoting new railway projects to diversify passenger transport. However, the plan faces significant challenges, including profitability and environmental impact.

The first initiative is a 55-kilometer line between Mexico City and Pachuca in Hidalgo, built on an old railbed. Construction began on March 22 without environmental approval—a legal requirement—though the Environment Ministry granted the permit six days later.

The new passenger and freight line has an initial cost of US$2.44 billion, is expected to open in the first half of 2027, and will cross six municipalities in Hidalgo and four in the neighboring state of Mexico.

The second project is a 227-kilometer line between Mexico City and Querétaro, with a preliminary cost of about US$7 billion, passing through 22 municipalities in four states. Construction is set to begin this April.

Both projects are part of the National Railway Development Plan and the National Industrialization and Shared Prosperity Strategy (known as Plan México), launched in January by Sheinbaum as her flagship development program, which also includes investments in electricity, electric vehicle assembly, and microprocessors.

Sheinbaum’s administration is replicating the fast-track approach used for the Maya Train (TM), with the full weight of the state apparatus behind it.

Rail is less polluting than air, sea, or road transport, but the steel and cement required for its infrastructure limit its eco-friendly image.

The Mexican government is also preparing tenders for rail lines from Saltillo to Nuevo Laredo (crossing the Northern states of Coahuila, Nuevo León, and Tamaulipas) and Querétaro to Irapuato (in the states of Querétaro and Guanajuato).

These new lines, expected to start operating between 2027 and 2028, will join seven existing passenger routes, including suburban and tourist railways—three of which are privately concessioned.

From January to October 2024, these railways carried 42.22 million passengers, an 11% increase from the same period in 2023. Most (90%) were suburban passengers, highlighting the need for intercity rail and the challenges of expansion.

A view of downtown Pachuca, the capital of Hidalgo in central Mexico. In March, the government began construction on a passenger and freight rail line between Mexico City and this city, set to begin operations in the first half of 2027. Image: Inafed

Environmental Paradoxes 

Jaime Paredes, an academic at the National Autonomous University of Mexico’s School of Engineering, stresses the need for clear definitions of efficiency, CO₂ emission reductions —the gas generated by human activities responsible for global warming—, and travel times.

“It’s a good tool, but we must evaluate noise pollution, impacts on aquifers, and economic factors. They are not profitable, but they are social projects. It is important to evaluate how they will be implemented to combine commercial and economic elements and thus reduce government subsidies,” he told IPS.

Environmental impact assessments (EIAs) submitted to the Environment Ministry suggest the Pachuca line will have fewer impacts than Querétaro’s.

The Pachuca line will cross seven areas of very low and seven of low ecosystem quality, due to agriculture and human communities, causing 11 negative and seven beneficial environmental impacts. Soil and water contamination are the main concerns, with six protected species identified in the area.

The Querétaro line, however, crosses 12 very low and 30 low ecosystem-quality zones, affecting seven protected natural areas, including Tula National Park in Hidalgo, wetlands in Querétaro, and Xochimilco, which provides ecological services like clean water and air to Mexico City.

Construction will clear vegetation across 90 hectares (five of forest, 0.62 of low jungle). The EIA found 63 threatened plant species and 136 fauna species. Risks include water source disruption, flooding in three sections, land subsidence, air pollution, and ecological fragmentation—though it also predicts socioeconomic benefits like job creation and a stronger economy.

In total, the Querétaro line will have 28 environmental impacts (21 negative, seven positive). The government assumes socioeconomic benefits will outweigh environmental costs, proposing prevention, mitigation, and compensation measures.

While the Pachuca trains will be electric, Querétaro’s will use both electricity and diesel. A key drawback is that Mexico’s electricity largely comes from fossil fuels (especially gas), limiting emissions reductions.

The Pachuca line’s CO₂ emissions are unestimated, while Querétaro’s will emit 37 tons monthly during construction.

Mexico has very few passenger rail routes, and the current government aims to expand this less polluting form of public transport compared to air, sea, and road travel. Image: ARTF

Precedents

Past passenger rail projects offer lessons.

The intercity train connecting western Mexico City with Toluca (known as El Insurgente), under construction since 2014 and partially operational since 2023, saw its budget balloon from US$2.86 billion to US$6.85 billion.

The Maya Train (TM), more tourist-oriented than for local passengers, has not displaced bus travel, according to 2024 reports.

The TM spans 1,500 km across five southern and southeastern states, with five of seven planned sections operational since 2023. The project has faced delays, cost overruns, and environmental violations.

Other indicators raise concerns. CO2 emissions from Mexico’s rail system (freight and passenger) are rising. Diesel consumption nearly tripled between 2021 and late 2023. Emissions from the Suburban Train (linking northern Mexico City and the state of Mexico) have increased since 2021, despite lower electricity use.

Rail expert Paredes recommends updating the 1995 Regulatory Law of Railway Service to “ensure concessionaires and assignees share responsibilities.”

“Users should be part of comprehensive reviews. Clear parameters and indicators are needed to assess environmental impact reduction. Transparency in results would provide certainty. Communities and municipalities must be integrated into plans,” he urged.

Meanwhile, chronicler Hernández hopes for a major push to revive trains across Mexico’s landscapes.

“A strong campaign is needed to attract people. Trains could be as popular as they once were,” he said.

Portion of the Jáltipan-Salina Cruz pipeline, which operates between the southeastern state of Veracruz and the southern region of Oaxaca. To meet its industrialization goals, Mexico would have to increase its reliance on fossil gas imported from the United States. Credit: Cenagás

By Emilio Godoy
MEXICO, Jan 31 2025 (IPS)

This January, Mexico has embarked on a new industrial path for the next six years, where the viability of its energy component faces fundamental challenges that put it at risk.

Energy scarcity is among the main obstacles faced by the economic program of President Claudia Sheinbaum, who has been in office since October.

Researcher Luca Ferrari from the Geosciences Center of the public National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM) identified limited financial resources and energy supply as barriers to progress.

“There are budgetary and energy quantity constraints. Increased industrialization for export will run into energy shortages or very limited availability, due to necessary investments and where they will come from. We are in a very precarious energy situation because we are dependent on fossil fuels and are energy deficient,” he told IPS."These are isolated projects that may be interesting. They are a statement of intentions, but should be read in light of other public policy instruments, such as climate and transition, along with the need to align with a comprehensive energy policy": Carlos Asunsolo.

Launched on January 13 under the general title of the National Industrialization and Shared Prosperity Strategy, Plan Mexico (PM) consists of 10 objectives, 13 goals, 2,000 projects, and a total planned investment of US$277 billion, which would create 1.5 million new jobs in manufacturing and other sectors.

Among the plan’s investments, which are seen internally as a partial response to the arrival of ultra-conservative Donald Trump to the U.S. presidency, is an investment by the state-owned Federal Electricity Commissionx (CFE) of US$23.4 billion.

Of this, US$12.3 billion will be allocated to generation, US$7.5 billion to transmission infrastructure, and US$3.6 billion to decentralized photovoltaic production in homes.

Additionally, the government is preparing rules for the private sector’s renewed participation in electricity generation, a modality suspended since 2018 to favor CFE and also the state-owned Mexican Petroleum (Pemex).

This return would include, among other measures, lower energy purchase costs for the electric monopoly and the use of storage batteries to maintain grid stability.

As a result, the plan would add 21,893 megawatts (MW) to the national energy matrix, aiming to reach a 37.8% of clean energy, up from the current 22.5%. By law, CFE controls 54% of the electricity market, with the rest being in private hands.

At least 17 transmission and distribution projects are under study for implementation at an undetermined time, but their development would be independent of the new PM, which does incorporate several projects already underway, as well as new ones.

With a current installed capacity of 89,000 MW, in 2024 approximately 63% of electricity generation depended on fossil gas, followed by conventional thermoelectricity (6.8%), hydroelectricity (5.9%), wind energy (5.8%), solar photovoltaic (5.2%), nuclear (3%), and geothermal (1%).

Renewable sources have an installed capacity of 33,517 MW but only contribute 22.5% of electricity.

In December 2023, during the annual climate summit in Dubai, Mexico joined the Global Commitment on Renewables and Energy Efficiency, which aims to triple alternative installed capacity and double the energy efficiency rate by 2030. Thus, the PM would fall short of the clean generation target.

The first phase of the Puerto Peñasco photovoltaic plant, with a capacity of 120 megawatts and located in the northern state of Sonora, has been operational since 2023. The Mexican government included the project in its multi-billion-dollar investment for the energy sector. Credit: Government of Mexico

Gasify, baby, gasify

Since December 2018, when Sheinbaum’s predecessor and mentor left-wing populist Andrés Manuel López Obrador took office as president, Mexico has pursued the so far unattained goal of energy sovereignty, one of whose effects has been the halt of the transition to less polluting fuels.

Sheinbaum’s new package of projects continues this model but also deviates from its extremes, in what seems like the resurrection of the much-needed energy transition, in a strategy marked by apparent contradictions.

For Carlos Asunsolo, manager of Research and Public Policy at the non-governmental Mexican Center for Environmental Law (Cemda), Plan Mexico lacks specific details, such as the pathways to achieve the goals.

“These are isolated projects that may be interesting. It is a statement of intentions, but it should be read in light of other public policy instruments, such as climate and transition, along with the need to align with a comprehensive energy policy,” he analyzed for IPS.

The expert cited concerns about project execution conditions, their type, human rights guarantees, and transparency.

One of the pillars of PM is promoting the relocation (nearshoring) of companies in sectors such as electronics, high technology, and the automotive industry. This is due to the alteration of global maritime transport routes, the repercussions of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, and the trade dispute between the United States and China.

This section also needs energy and projects progress in the construction of 100 industrial parks, including 12 in the Interoceanic Corridor of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec (CIIT), a megaproject already underway under the responsibility of the Ministry of the Navy.

This corridor in the southeast of the country is one of the three most important legacies of the current government, along with the Maya Train in the southeastern Yucatán Peninsula and the Olmeca refinery in the state of Tabasco, also in the southeast. All three are integrated into the new PM.

The CIIT involves the construction and modernization of three rail routes and three ports between the Pacific coast and the Atlantic Gulf of Mexico.

A lone solar panel powering a water well in the rural community of Tahdzui, in the southeastern Mexican state of Yucatán. The government of Claudia Sheinbaum has shown signs of reviving the clean energy transition, which had been suspended since 2018, including decentralized generation. Credit: Emilio Godoy / IPS

But these facilities, which seek regional development in the southeast and the substitution of imports from Asia, require lots of energy. Existing and planned renewable generation would not be enough in this area, which would lead Mexico to deepen its dependence on gas imported from the United States.

Since 2010, the northern neighbor has sent more than 18 billion cubic feet (ft3) of gas to Mexico via pipelines. In 2023, Mexico consumed 8.514 billion ft3 daily, of which it imported 6.141 billion from the United States, making it the supplier of 72% of all its gas.

Additionally, the López Obrador administration promoted the Sonora Sustainable Energy Plan, which includes photovoltaic energy, lithium exploitation, and electric vehicle manufacturing in the northern state of Sonora, and which is now incorporated into Sheinbaum’s PM.

One of its components is the Puerto Peñasco photovoltaic plant in Sonora, whose first phase of 120 MW has been operational since 2023. When completed in 2026, it will provide 1,000 MW, with a total investment of $1.6 billion.

For Ferrari, the UNAM researcher, the only possibility for more energy to sustain the business promise is gas.

“We are already in a ridiculously dependent situation. In the United States, production has stabilized over the past year, and it is likely to fall in the coming years. Gas delivery to Mexico is not guaranteed,” he predicted.

Meanwhile, specialist Asunsolo considers it essential to question for whom and for what more energy is being generated, the size of the projects, and the fueling of consumption, at a time when the climate crisis is tightening its grip on very vulnerable places like Mexico.

“There is a clear bet for CFE, through gas, and Pemex, through hydrocarbons, to be the main energy policy. We are only swapping one problem for another with the change of source. If it does not translate into a reduction of hydrocarbons, only generation capacity is increased. There is a confusing message,” emphasized the Cemda expert.

As it progresses, the PM will not only have to face energy obstacles, according to analysts, but will also have to navigate the growing water deficit.

Northern Mexico and parts of the center, south, and southeast were experiencing some degree of drought by January 15, raising questions about water availability for the large projects outlined in the new industrial plan.