Máximo Torero, Chief Economist of Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), briefs the Security Council meeting on Conflict-related food insecurity: Framing the global dialogue: addressing food insecurity as a driver of conflict and ensuring food security for sustainable peace. Credit: UN Photo/Manuel Elías

By Naureen Hossain
UNITED NATIONS, Mar 27 2026 (IPS)

The current conflict in Iran and the Middle East region threatens to disrupt the global energy and agri-food sectors, as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz affects oil and fertilizer exports for farmers during critical harvest seasons.

The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) warns that if the war does not come to an immediate end, global markets could collapse from the high demands for oil and crops.

Within the next two weeks, global markets may be able to absorb the shocks brought on by the war thus far and could therefore minimize the risks of food insecurity, said FAO’s chief economist Máximo Torero.

“If this crisis continues for the next three to six months, then yes, it will have an impact not only on the food security sector; of course, energy will impact all other sectors and all other inputs that have been affected,” Torero said.

The Strait of Hormuz carries up to 30 percent of international trade fertilizers and up to 35 percent of global crude oil and natural gas. Premiums on the costs of these resources are increasing as the war continues in the region. Torero told reporters on Thursday that farmers face the “double choke” of higher prices on fertilizers and rising fuel prices, the latter of which is used by the value chain to produce the food available in markets. With limited supplies, farmers may be forced to adapt their crop cycle by reducing the amount of fertilizer or switch to crops that require less nitrogen fertilizer.

Credit: UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD).

Torero remarked that the immediate impact will be on the next season of crops, which will likely have fewer yields than before the war started. If the fighting concludes within a month, countries with higher reserves of fertilizers and fuels may mitigate shocks to the global markets. If the fighting lasts three months and the Strait of Hormuz stays closed, the shocks will be global and harder to manage. The consequences could include fewer yields from crops and more pressure on global exporters such as the United States, Brazil and Australia. As oil prices increase, this may encourage farmers to switch to biofuels to help meet the demands for crops. Yet such actions may also cause higher consumer prices.

When it comes to the war’s impact in the region, Torero reported that Iran was already dealing with high food prices before the fighting began, which it has only exacerbated. Meanwhile, for Gulf states such as Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, they are largely reliant on food imports and will face more challenges as there are no ships carrying imports through the channel.

Beyond the Middle East, FAO identified certain countries that will be impacted by fertilizer and fuel shortages, such as Sri Lanka and Bangladesh, which are currently in their respective rice harvest seasons, and sub-Saharan countries like Kenya and Somalia, which rely on 22 to 31 percent of fertilizer imports.

One area that will also be affected by the conflict is remittances. Migrant workers from South Asia and East Africa live and work in the Gulf states, including at airports and places of business that have been targeted by military strikes. Torero explained that if these workers cannot send money back to their households in their home countries, the resulting decline in remittance inflow will affect many countries where remittances make up a “significant share” of their GDP.

“There’s a significant amount of labor employment that comes from this region,” Torero said. “Now, if the airplanes are not flying… If the operations that used to flow through the airports are not happening, that will impact of course their economies, and that will impact all these temporary laborers that are working in those locations.”

The rich economies that attract migrant labor could be impacted, Torero said, and the workers whose families rely on remittances would also be severely affected.

While the war in the Persian Gulf continues to threaten the global energy, fertilizer and food markets, the international community is encouraged to take short- and long-term measures to mitigate the shock and protect vulnerable populations.

Torero and FAO recommended developing alternative trade routes to reduce dependence on the Strait of Hormuz. Vulnerable import-dependent countries, including low-income states, need support through emergency food aid, balance-of-payment support and targeted subsidies. Farmers should also be financed to maintain agricultural production and to prevent liquidity constraints.

Torero also recommended that states should diversify their import sources and promote regional coordination. He added that states need to build resilience in the future, which means investing in sustainable domestic agriculture and alternatives to fertilizers and preparing for structural market shifts that may result from prolonged instability.

“We need to treat food systems with the same strategic importance as energy and transport sectors and invest […] accordingly to minimize those shocks.”

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A Community Health Worker in a door-to-door campaign to vaccinate people in communities in Nanyamba village, Mtwara Region, in southeastern Tanzania. Credit: Kizito Makoye/IPS

By Kizito Makoye
DAR ES SALAAM, Tanzania, Oct 28 2025 (IPS)

When COVID-19 hit Tanzania in 2020, Alfred Kisena’s life was torn apart. The 51-year-old teacher still remembers the night he learned that his wife, Maria, had succumbed to the virus at a hospital in Dar es Salaam. He wasn’t allowed to see her in her final moments.

“The doctors said it was too dangerous, and the virus was contagious,” Kisena said, gazing at a faded photo of her hanging on the wall.

Maria’s burial took place in eerie isolation. Municipal workers dressed in white protective gear lowered her body into a tomb at Ununio Cemetery on the city’s outskirts.

“Saying goodbye to a loved one is sacred, but I didn’t get a chance,” he said.

Across Tanzania, many families endured the same pain—losing loved ones and being denied the rituals that give meaning to loss. The government imposed strict measures: banning gatherings, restricting hospital visits, and prohibiting traditional burial rites. Schools shut down, and for three months, Kisena’s five children stayed home, their education abruptly halted.

“I was not working, so it was hard to meet the needs of my family,” he said. “We survived on the little savings I had.”

Five years later, as the scars of that crisis linger, Tanzania is charting a new path toward resilience. Earlier this month, the government launched its first-ever Pandemic Fund Project, aimed at strengthening the country’s capacity to prevent and respond to health crises.

Supported by a USD25 million grant from the global Pandemic Fund and USD13.7 million in co-financing, the initiative marks a shift from reactive crisis management to proactive preparedness. It unites local and international partners—including WHO, UNICEF, and FAO—under a “One Health” framework that recognizes the interconnectedness of human, animal, and environmental health.

Learning from the Past

The memories of COVID-19 and the more recent Marburg outbreak remain vivid. When the pandemic first struck, Tanzania’s laboratories were under-equipped, surveillance systems were weak, and community health workers were overwhelmed.

Tanzania’s Deputy Prime Minister, Doto Biteko, said during the launch that the lessons from those crises shaped the country’s new determination.

“For the past 20 years, the world has battled multiple health emergencies, and Tanzania is no exception,” he said. “We have seen how pandemics disrupt lives and economies. Strengthening our capacity to prepare and respond is not optional—it is a necessity.”

That necessity has only grown as Tanzania faces rising risks of zoonotic diseases linked to deforestation, wildlife trade, and climate change. The new project aims to address these vulnerabilities by upgrading laboratories, expanding disease surveillance, and training health workers across the country.

The Human Frontlines

In southern Kisarawe District, 38-year-old community health worker Ana Msechu walks along dusty roads with a backpack containing medicine, gloves, and health records.

“Sometimes I walk for three hours just to reach one family,” Msechu said. “During the pandemic, people stopped trusting us. They thought we were bringing the disease.”

With no protective gear or transport allowance, Msechu faced villagers’ suspicion head-on. At the height of the pandemic, she lost a colleague to the virus. Yet she continued, delivering messages about hygiene and vaccination.

“Sometimes we didn’t even have masks—we used pieces of cloth instead,” she recalled.

The new initiative, she believes, could change that. Implementing partners plan to supply personal protective equipment (PPE), digital tools for data collection, and regular training sessions.

“If we get proper support and respect, we can save many lives before diseases spread,” she said.

“Community health workers are the backbone of resilience,” said Patricia Safi Lombo, UNICEF’s Deputy Representative to Tanzania. “They are the first point of contact for families and play a critical role in delivering life-saving information and services.”

UNICEF’s role will focus on risk communication and community engagement—ensuring that people in rural and urban areas understand preventive measures, recognize early symptoms, and trust the health system.

Between Fear and Duty

Hamisi Mjema, a health volunteer in Kilosa District, remembers how fear became his biggest enemy.

When the Marburg virus hit last year, his job was to trace suspected cases and educate families about isolation.

“I was insulted many times, and some families wouldn’t even let me into their homes,” he said.

Without transport or communication tools, Hamisi walked from one remote village to another with his bicycle, often relying on farmers to share their phone airtime so he could report cases to district health officials.

Under the new initiative, local health officers say community health workers will receive field kits, digital disease-reporting tools, and risk communication materials in local languages.

“It will make our work safer and faster,” he said. “When we detect something early, the whole country benefits.”

Fighting Misinformation

In a lakeside village in Kigoma, volunteer health educator Fatuma Mfaume recalls how rumors once spread faster than the virus itself.

“People were afraid,” she said. “They said vaccines would make women barren. Others believed doctors were poisoning us.”

Armed with a megaphone, Mfaume moved through villages trying to dispel falsehoods—often facing insults. But her persistence paid off. Slowly, women began bringing their children for immunization again.

With the new project, she hopes community workers like her will gain formal recognition and training in communication skills.

“Many of us work without pay,” Mfaume said. “If this project can train us properly and give us materials, we can fight not just disease but fear and lies too.”

Animal-Borne Threats

At the same time, the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) is strengthening animal health systems, recognizing that most pandemics originate from animals.

“By improving coordination between veterinary and public health services, Tanzania is taking vital steps to prevent zoonotic diseases before they spill over to humans,” said Stella Kiambi, FAO’s Emergency Centre for Transboundary Animal Diseases Team Lead.

These measures include upgrading veterinary laboratories, improving disease surveillance in livestock markets, and training field officers to detect early signs of outbreaks.

The World Health Organization (WHO) is also supporting efforts to strengthen human health systems—from expanding testing capacity to developing rapid response teams.

“This project marks a bold step forward in health security,” said Dr. Galbert Fedjo, WHO Health Systems Coordinator. “It advances a One Health approach that links human, animal, and environmental health.”

Rebuilding Trust and Hope

For Priya Basu, Executive Head of the Pandemic Fund, Tanzania’s project represents “an important step in strengthening the country’s preparedness to prevent and respond to future health threats.”

Across Africa, the Fund—established in 2022—has supported 47 projects in 75 countries with USD 885 million in grants, catalyzing more than USD 6 billion in additional financing.

According to the World Bank, every USD 1 invested in pandemic preparedness can save up to USD 20 in economic losses during an outbreak.

For Tanzania—a nation that lost thousands of lives and suffered deep economic shocks during COVID-19—the stakes couldn’t be higher.

“Preparedness is about saving lives and livelihoods,” said Dr. Ali Mzige, a public health expert. “It’s about making sure families don’t suffer when a pandemic strikes.”

For Kisena, the government’s new initiative is a quiet promise that the lessons of loss have not been forgotten.

“Maria’s death taught me how precious life is,” he said. “If this project can protect even one family from that kind of pain, then it will mean her death was not in vain.

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Mario Lubetkin is FAO Assistant Director-General and Regional Representative for Latin America and the Caribbean. CREDIT: Max Valencia / FAO Lac

By Orlando Milesi
SANTIAGO, Apr 2 2024 (IPS)

“I’m more optimistic than before” about the goal of ending hunger included in the 2030 agenda for Latin America and the Caribbean, said FAO regional representative Mario Lubetkin in an interview with IPS.

Lubetkin, who is also Assistant Director-General of the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), warned that it is still difficult to achieve this goal, but expressed optimism about the awareness expressed by the leaders of 33 countries that participated in the organization’s 38th Regional Conference, held in the capital of Guyana.

At the meeting, which ended on Mar. 21, the governments agreed to emphasize the fight against hunger and improve agricultural management in the nations of Latin America and the Caribbean.

The four FAO guidelines approved at the Georgetown conference are: more efficient, inclusive and sustainable production; ending hunger and achieving food security and nutrition; sustainable management of natural resources and adaptation to climate change; and reducing inequality and poverty and promoting resilience.

Solving the problem of hunger is a key element of international security and world peace, Lubetkin said during the interview at FAO’s regional headquarters in Santiago, Chile.

IPS: After the 38th Conference, are you more optimistic or pessimistic about achieving the zero hunger targets of the 2030 Agenda and in particular Sustainable Development Goal 2, zero hunger, for the region?

MARIO LUBETKIN: I still maintain that it is very difficult, but that is one part of the equation. The other part is whether I am optimistic about a state of increased awareness and action in Latin America and the Caribbean. Having heard what I heard and from that point of view I am more optimistic than before.

In how many electoral campaigns in the region last year and this year has the issue of no hunger and food security been addressed?… in many. And it was not an issue before.

Celac (the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States), the only structure for political dialogue among Latin American countries, approved at its last summit in St. Vincent and the Grenadines (Mar. 1-2) a new 2024-2030 food and nutrition security plan. This is the way the region is contributing, by rethinking their plans and focusing them in a forceful and clear manner.

Celac does not easily approve issues by acclamation or consensus, but now it has done so and this means that food security is above any conflict or political ideology. This is a source of optimism.

And the Group of 20 (large industrial and emerging countries), the world governance bloc chaired today by Brazil, will launch a major alliance against hunger and poverty.

These are very strong signals to address an issue that has been dragging on for too many years. Today there is a greater level of awareness.

IPS: What is the state of affairs in the region in the fight against hunger?

ML: There are about 43 million people suffering from hunger and more than 130 million have difficulty putting food on the table.

We are talking about a region that was the only one to reduce the number of hungry people by more than three million.

This is a sign that should not be underestimated, since it was reduced because there were policies that are beginning to yield concrete results.

IPS: But the problem is still pressing….

ML: Indeed, we cannot say that with this reduction we are reversing trends. What we can say is that there is a glimmer of hope. But if it continues for a second year, we could say that we are getting closer to seeing a real trend.

Until 2014 there was a net trend of hunger reduction. Then it changed worldwide, including Latin America.

We have seen a situation in which we are coming out of COVID with all the effects that it generated: a regression to a scenario of 20 to 25 percent hungry people. These are very severe numbers that we have gradually been improving, returning to the pre-COVID scenario.

IPS: Moving toward a solution to the problem of hunger requires a very broad social consensus.

ML: Today we cannot assert that all this is going to be tackled by one country, or by an international organization or the private sector. No one on their own is going to solve this problem.

During the Conference, economic, environmental, educational, health and social development components were discussed. No food security is possible without the participation of all these elements, all the actors and all the technicians.

When we talk about the transformation of agrifood systems, we are talking about sustainable land, quality seeds, lines of credit, especially for family farmers, water management, foreign trade, social development policies, education and health.

IPS: You mentioned a “glimmer of hope” in the fight against hunger due to the reduction in the number of hungry people by three million.

ML: I would call for a replication of the same policies applied by governments during the COVID pandemic, when there was no international cooperation or dialogue between countries, but rather local spending efforts to solve a fundamental issue.

At that time, we turned to the basics of survival and there were two main goals: not to catch COVID and to go to the supermarket and not find empty shelves.

There was investment during that period by countries to avoid disaster, and development policies because the machine did not stop. Many presidents understand that they must be at the forefront of food security because it is essential for a country’s socioeconomic stability.

IPS: This region is a major food producer, but overweight and obesity are on the rise. There are severe problems due to the consumption of junk food.

ML: In terms of adults, the obesity figure is over 24 percent. But we have more dramatic statistics. Obesity among children under five years of age exceeds 8.7 percent. This figure means an enormous passive burden for governments, for the rest of these children’s lives.

Another alarming fact is that the cost of eating quality food on a daily basis is the most expensive in the world, even though this is a food-producing region. Here it costs an average of 4.08 dollars a day, while the global average is 3.66 dollars and in Africa the cost is 3.78 dollars.

The cost of quality food is a problem that the region has to be capable of tackling. Education is another aspect.

Of the world’s total food production, 13 percent comes from this region. But far less than 20 percent is exported within Latin America, and that is a serious sign.

Latin America has the capacity to produce food for more than 1.3 billion people, with a population half that size, which means we have a huge margin.

IPS: In Brazil, public purchases are made from family farmers to supply school meals. Can initiatives like this help to solve the problem?

ML: Without a doubt. One of the key elements is for local experiences to expand beyond the borders of the country.

These are aspects of enormous sensitivity because we are talking about 70 or 80 percent of farmers. Large producers do not need us, but small and family farmers do. In addition ….this is where one of the great battles between development and poverty is played out.

IPS: Has the scenario been complicated by armed conflicts?

ML: I am not talking about war, but about wars, which, although they are far away from us, produce economic effects and effects on agricultural production that weigh heavily.

And we have a conflict that is really severe in Haiti, where almost 50 percent of the population of eight million have difficulties feeding themselves.

IPS: Ending the hunger crisis is key to international security and world peace.

ML: No doubt…. it’s very simple: war does not solve the issue of hunger, it can only aggravate it. Only in a scenario of peace can the issue of food security be addressed.

Where there is war, not the most high-profile wars but the ones that fly under the radar like in Afghanistan, South Sudan, Somalia or Yemen, you can be sure that there will be no solution.

It can only happen in a scenario of peace, and if we are going to advance towards food security, it will be because we find ourselves in more positive scenarios, which is fundamental.

Excerpt:

Temporary medical camps are still the norm in some areas of Pakistan as the country struggles to recover from last year’s flooding. Now areas of the country are facing Cyclone Biparjoy and a monsoon season, and warnings are that food insecurity may increase. Credit: Ashfaq Yusufzai/IPS

By Ashfaq Yusufzai
PESHAWAR, Jun 13 2023 (IPS)

A warning by the UN that Pakistan may face acute food insecurity in the coming months should serve as a wake-up call for the government to focus on the flood-hit areas where the people still live without shelter, medication, and proper food, analysts say.

The warning comes as the National Forecasting Centre in Islamabad warned of an extremely severe cyclonic storm Biparjoy that is expected to make landfall in the country in the coming days.

A mass evacuation of about 80,000 people from its path in Sindh province and India’s Gujarat state is underway in areas where severe storms and high winds are expected.

Ahead of the storm and the expected monsoon season, a recent United Nations report warned that acute food insecurity in Pakistan is likely to be further exacerbated in coming months if the economic and political crisis further worsens, compounding the effects of the 2022 floods – which the country is yet to recover from.

The report titled “Hunger Hotspots” was jointly published by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and the World Food Programme (WFP), is a stark reminder to the government, which is yet to cater to the needs of the population hit by severe floods in June-July last year. The two UN agencies have further warned that acute food insecurity will likely deteriorate further in 81 hunger spots — comprising 22 countries, including Pakistan, during the outlook period from June to November 2023.

The projected path of Cyclone Biparjoy.  About 80,000 people are expected to be evacuated ahead of the storm. Credit: India Meteorological Department

According to the report, Pakistan, the Central African Republic, Ethiopia, Kenya, Congo, and Syria are hotspots with great concern, and the warning is also extended to Myanmar.

Pakistan’s Federal Minister for National Food Security and Research, Tariq Bashir Cheema, disputed the report regarding possible “acute food insecurity” in Pakistan and termed it “an effort to spread sensationalism and declare the country a hunger hotspot like African countries.”

He alleged that the two UN agencies wanted to declare Pakistan a “hotspot” for famine like African countries.

“Pakistan had a bumper wheat crop this year, and 28.5 million tonnes of wheat production had been recorded, along with the carry-over stock of the previous year,” he told IPS.

However, analysts and NGOs working in the field said the report was accurate and urged the government to take strong measures for food security before the new wave of flooding.

Almost one year after unprecedented floods ravaged Pakistan, more than 10 million people living in flood-affected areas remain deprived of safe drinking water, leaving families with no alternative to use potentially disease-ridden water, Muhammad Zaheer, an economist, told IPS.

In January, donors pledged more than USD10.7 billion for Pakistan’s flood-stricken population in Geneva against an estimated USD16.3 billion recovery bill.

“All the amount pledged at the conference are loans which will be sent to the government from time to time. However, the flood-stricken people are yet to benefit,” he said.

Zaheer said that affected people in Sindh, Balochistan, and parts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa need support due to the fear of more rains.

According to the report, over 8.5 million people were likely to experience high levels of acute food insecurity.

The situation has been compounded by last year’s floods which caused damage and economic losses of Rs30bn to the agriculture sector.

According to the UN Development Programme (UNDP), a  Post-Disaster Needs Assessment (PDNA) estimated flood damages to exceed USD 14.9 billion, economic losses over USD 15.2 billion, and reconstruction need over $16.3 billion.

The food insecurity and malnutrition situation will likely worsen in the outlook period, as economic and political crises are reducing households’ purchasing power and ability to buy food and other essential goods, it notes.

A UNICEF report said that an estimated 20.6 million people, including 9.6 million children, need humanitarian assistance in hard-hit districts with high malnutrition, poor access to water and sanitation, and low school enrollment.

“Frail, hungry children are fighting a losing battle against severe acute malnutrition, diarrhea, malaria, dengue fever, typhoid, acute respiratory infections, and painful skin conditions. As well as physical ailments, the longer the crisis continues, the greater the risk to children’s mental health,” it said.

UNICEF will continue to respond to urgent humanitarian needs while also restoring and rehabilitating existing health, water, sanitation, and education facilities for families returning home. An estimated 3.5 million children, especially girls, are at high risk of permanently dropping out of school.

“But much more support is needed to ensure we can reach all families displaced by floods and help them overcome this climate disaster. It will take months, if not years, for families to recover from the sheer scale of the devastation,” it said.

The floods affected 33 million people, while more than 1,700 lives were lost, and more than 2.2 million houses were damaged or destroyed. The floods damaged most of the water systems in affected areas, forcing more than 5.4 million people, including 2.5 million children, to rely solely on contaminated water from ponds and wells.

Sultana Bibi, who lost her home and a few cattle in the flood in Swat district, said there was no government assistance so far.

“We have received some foodstuff from the local NGO in the early days, but we need financial assistance to rebuild our homes. Many people still live with their relatives,” Bibi, 50, told IPS.

Representatives of Al-Khidmat Foundation, a national NGO, which is on the ground in Swat and other areas to help the people, said the situation is yet to improve.

“Unsafe water and poor sanitation are key underlying causes of malnutrition. The associated diseases, such as diarrhea, prevent children from getting the vital nutrients they need. Malnourished children are also more susceptible to waterborne diseases due to already weakened immune systems, which perpetuates a vicious cycle of malnutrition and infection,” he said.

“We fear more flood as June has begun. Last year, we faced severe floods during this month. The government is required to help the people,” analyst Abdul Hakim said.

Hakim, a university lecturer in environmental sciences in Swat district, told IPS that the people would be worst-hit in case of floods this year, and the people haven’t recovered from the last year’s devastating rainwaters.

Pakistan Medical Association’s Dr Abdul Ghafoor said that people still rely on medical camps organized by NGOs as health facilities destroyed by floods haven’t been operational.

“We want the government to take the FAO/WFP report seriously and safeguard the affected people against water and food-borne ailments,” he told IPS.

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