Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev chats with OSCE PA President Ranko Krivokapic, Jun. 28, 2014, in Baku. Credit: OSCE Parliamentary Assembly/CC-BY-2.0

By Shahin Abbasov
BAKU, Aug 10 2014 (EurasiaNet)

Azerbaijan in recent months has launched a clear assault against various civil society activists and non-governmental organisations. While rough treatment of critics is nothing new in this energy-rich South-Caucasus country, one question remains unanswered: Why pick up the pace now?

Some observers link this behavior to two causes: The February resignation of Ukraine’s ex-President Alexander Yanukovich in response to mass protests, and the Azerbaijani government’s keen desire for a protest-free 2015 European Games, a Summer Olympics for European countries that is a pet-project of President Ilham Aliyev.

And so, in the best of Soviet traditions, the cleanup has begun.

"Two months ago, the deputy head of the presidential administration, Novruz Mammadov, openly accused the U.S. of financing a revolution in Ukraine. Therefore, the authorities [here] want to deprive the local civil society of any foreign funding [...]." -- Emil Huseynov, director of the Institute for Reporters’ Freedom and Safety
The tactics appear to fall into two categories – criminal prosecutions and scrutiny of financial resources. Since June, several leaders of local NGOs, critical bloggers and opposition activists have been arrested and sentenced to long prison terms on various criminal charges, including alleged tax-evasion, hooliganism and possession of illegal narcotics.

On Jul. 30, the crackdown accelerated with the filing of criminal charges, including treason, against outspoken human-rights activist Leyla Yunus. She is now in jail for three months awaiting trial. A former defense-ministry spokesperson actively engaged in citizen-diplomacy with neighbouring foe Armenia, Yunus and her husband, conflict-analyst Arif Yunus, have been under investigation since April.

Shortly before her detention, Yunus and a group of fellow activists publicly denounced the upcoming European Games as inappropriate for “authoritarian Azerbaijan, where human rights are violated.”A group led by Yunus has appealed to the European Olympic Committee (EOC) and the European Union’s EOC representative office to cancel the decision to hold the Games in Baku.

Yunus’ problems with the government, though, are not unique. The list of people sentenced to prison since June reads like a “Who’s Who” of Azerbaijani civil society.

Anar Mammadli, director of the Election Monitoring Center has been sentenced to 5.5 years on charges of tax evasion; his deputy, Bashir Suleymanly got five years. Hasan Huseynli,  head of the youth-education NGO Kamil Vetendash, or Intellectual Citizen, received six years for allegedly illegally carrying weapons and wounding a person with a knife.

Yadigar Sadigov an activist from the opposition Musavat Party is in for six years on charges of “hooliganism.” And three so-called “Facebook activists,” bloggers Elsever Mursalli, Abdulla Abilov and Omar Mammadov were sentenced to upwards of five years for carrying illegal drugs.

On Jul. 25, Baku police put another Musavat activist, Faradj Karimli, into pre-trial detention for allegedly “advertising psychotropic substances.” All of the accused deny the charges.

The prosecutions follow on the heels of legislative changes that now allow law-enforcement and tax agencies greater scope to audit and fine registered NGOs and ban outright unregistered NGOs’ ability to receive grants.

“Obviously, Baku is following the Russian way – to control the financial flows and, thus, to control the situation,” commented political analyst Elhan Shahinoglu, head of Baku’s Atlas Research Center.

“If the pressure will continue further, it will not be possible to talk about the normal activity of NGO’s in the country,” warned Elchin Abdullayev, a member of a network of NGO’s created to resist perceived intimidation-tactics.

The fact that these events are taking place during Azerbaijan’s six-month chairmanship of the Committee of Ministers of the Council of Europe, the continent’s primary human-rights organ, seems to pose no contradiction for the government.

And the desire for control apparently extends to international groups as well. The Baku office of the Washington, DC-based National Democratic Institute was officially closed on Jul. 2 after the authorities accused it of financing “radical” opposition youth groups.

Like others, Emil Huseynov, director of the Institute for Reporters’ Freedom and Safety, which also faces funding problems, traces that accusation to Baku’s fear of an Azerbaijani EuroMaidan.

“Two months ago, the deputy head of the presidential administration, Novruz Mammadov, openly accused the U.S. of financing a revolution in Ukraine. Therefore, the authorities want to deprive the local civil society of any foreign funding […],” Huseynov charged.

Gulnara Akhundova, a representative of the Danish-run International Media Support NGO, said that the government has refused to register any of the organisation’s grants to local NGO’s and individuals. “Most of our partners in Azerbaijan cannot work. The bank accounts of some of them are frozen,” Akhundova said. No reasons have been given.

According to the pro-opposition Turan news agency, the government also reportedly has expressed a desire to halt activities by the U.S. Peace Corps, which has operated in Azerbaijan since 2003.

President Aliyev, however, insists that Azerbaijan has no problem with civil rights. Last month, speaking at the Jun. 28 opening of the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) Parliamentary Assembly’s session in Baku, President Aliyev repeated that Azerbaijan is “a democratic country where freedoms of assembly, speech, media and Internet are guaranteed.”

Roughly a week later, speaking to Azerbaijani foreign-ministry officials, he claimed that he had never “heard any criticism of Azerbaijan’s domestic policy at meetings with European leaders.”

If so, it is not for lack of talking.

The OSCE has termed the number of journalists in prison in Azerbaijan “a dangerous trend,” while the European Union on Jul. 17 urged Baku to meet its obligations as “a Member of the Council of Europe.”

A difference in perspective poses an ongoing obstacle, however, noted U.S. Ambassador to Baku Richard Morningstar on Jul. 25, Turan reported.

“The major task of Azerbaijan is to keep stability. But we believe that if people would get more freedom, there will be more stability in Azerbaijan,” Morningstar said.

While Shahinoglu believes that the U.S. and European Union, for all their energy and security interests, will have to continue pressing Baku about its “poor human-rights record,” President Aliyev already has cautioned that the complaints will fall on deaf ears.

“Some people who called themselves opposition or human rights defenders believe that somebody would tell us something and we will obey,” he commented on Jul. 8. “They are naïve people.”

Editor’s note: This article originally appeared on EurasiaNet.org. Shahin Abbasov is a freelance correspondent based in Baku.

A man who declined to campaign in the weeks before Azerbaijan’s presidential election on Wednesday is already gearing up for his inauguration ceremony.

President Ilham Aliyev. UN Photo/Rick Bajornas

That man, of course, is Ilham Aliyev, who, already after two terms and 10 years in power, is the longest-serving ruler in the South Caucasus. While there are 10 candidates contesting the Oct. 9 election, most voters know in advance that Aliyev is going to win – and it will not even be close.

Critics scoff that the lack of a genuine choice illustrates the country’s lack of democratisation progress. “Overall, the campaign took place under a predetermined result; i.e. the inevitability of Aliyev’s victory,” said political strategist and blogger Bakhtiyar Hajiyev.

Such jabs, however, do not appear to trouble top government officials: even before the polls open, preparations are well underway for Aliyev’s third presidential inauguration.

Speaking on condition of anonymity, an employee at one of Baku’s largest florists told EurasiaNet.org that the government prepaid for flowers for an inauguration ceremony at the Heydar Aliyev Center, a facility in downtown Baku named in honor of Ilham Aliyev’s father, the late President Heydar Aliyev, and not a venue likely to be the choice for any opposition candidate’s inauguration.

That officials are looking past the election is not really that surprising, given that representatives of the pro-presidential Yeni Azerbaijan Party (YAP) announced early on during the campaign cycle that Aliyev would not run a formal campaign because “he doesn’t need it.”

The 51-year-old Aliyev has not taken part in any televised debates (delegating the task instead to senior YAP members), has not traveled outside of Baku to meet with voters and has not held a single campaign rally. He has not even made a campaign promise.

Relying on a slogan, “Davam,” or “Continue” in English, Aliyev’s PR machine has stressed the economic boom that Azerbaijan has experienced during his decade in power. True to this motto, the president at an Oct. 7 cabinet meeting spoke about his administration’s regional development plans for 2014 as a fait accompli.

Elhan Shahinoglu, head of the Atlas Research Centre, a Baku think-tank, said that in a genuinely “democratic country, such behaviour would be considered disrespectful to voters, but, in Azerbaijan, it will go unnoticed.”

A random survey of 20 people in downtown Baku largely confirmed that perception; most expressed support for President Aliyev, who, in the words of a shoe-cleaner, Fuad, is seen as having “brought success to Azerbaijan.” Many others appeared afraid to talk, scurrying away when they saw a microphone.

Of Aliyev’s nine opponents, only two – historian Jamil Hasanli, a former MP backed by the coalition National Council of Democratic Forces, and Umid (Hope) Party parliamentarian Igbal Agazade – have criticised Aliyev’s administration.

Having stumped in the regions and staged three rallies in Baku, the 61-year-old Hasanli has run perhaps the most active campaign, built around the slogan “Enough.” He accuses Aliyev of “ruling the country like his personal business holding” and routinely violating human rights.

Some of those surveyed by EurasiaNet.org like Hasanli as “a different face.” And unlike the president, Hasanli has a long list of promises: the unconditional release of all political prisoners; measures to protect property rights and to guarantee independence of the courts; and promotion of freedom of religion, including the permission for observant Muslim women to wear hijab where desired.

He has made a few populist-sounding pitches, too: state subsidies for agriculture and the government payback of small-scale personal loans; a two-fold decrease in utility prices and a two- to three-fold increase in pensions and salaries for teachers and doctors.

But hindered by a brief, 22-day-long official campaign period and limited finances for opposition candidates, Hasanli’s message has not had the time or means to resonate widely. Turnout at Hasanli’s campaign events, sometimes hampered by police interference, has not been above several thousand people.

The only other candidate to run a relatively active campaign, Igbal Agazade, has been cautious in criticising the government and has never made a direct accusation against President Aliyev. Offering eight different programmes for people ranging from pensioners to the unemployed, he opted for the campaign slogan “Change Your Life.”

Voters increasingly do not appear to think that they can, in fact, change their lives by heading to the polls, commented Shahinoglu. “People’s belief in the possibility of changes via elections has seriously declined due to regular falsifications in the past,” he said. “Political apathy is widespread and people care [more] about their daily needs.”

While running an outspoken candidate, the National Council remains weak and handicapped by internal divisions over their choice of candidate and strategy, he added. “Therefore, even the so-called protest electorate is reluctant to support it.”

The remaining candidates either have praised the government and attacked Hasanli and the National Council (non-partisan MP Zahid Oruj; the United Azerbaijan Popular Front Party’s Gudrat Hasanguliyev; the National Revival Movement Party’s Faraj Guliyev; Social-Democrat Party leader Araz Alizade, and Modern Musavat Party chief Khafiz Hajiyev) or have been passive (the Justice Party’s Ilyas Ismayilov, Democrat Party Chairperson Sardar Mammadov).

Monitors from the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe’s Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights have criticised the overall campaign, which ended on Oct. 8, for “a lack of thorough debate” and campaign platforms, and for the state-controlled media’s heavy coverage of President Aliyev in comparison with other candidates.

Opposition activists and journalists have come in for a disproportionate share of police attention, ranging from the arrests and beatings of National Council activists to charges of alleged drug trafficking against one opposition journalist, Parviz Hashimli.

In addition, 10 activists from the opposition NIDA youth movement face criminal charges for allegedly preparing a coup and making Molotov cocktails. Meanwhile, a leading opposition figure, Ilgar Mammadov, remains in prison on charges of having allegedly incited popular unrest earlier this year.

YAP representatives assert that the government has created a “free atmosphere and all the necessary conditions for candidates’ campaign activities.”

But some voters who have already decided to stay away from the polls are not buying it. “They get elected by themselves,” scoffed Baku high-school math teacher Khafiz Mustafayev in reference to the government. “That’s it.”

Editor’s note:  Shahin Abbasov is a freelance correspondent based in Baku. This story originally appeared on EurasiaNet.org.

There are three weeks to go before energy-rich Azerbaijan’s presidential vote on Oct. 9, but a race is nowhere to be seen. No political ads adorn the capital, Baku, and no candidate spots are running on private TV channels. The incumbent strongman, 51-year-old Ilham Aliyev, is not even bothering to run an active campaign.

More than any previous election, Azerbaijanis see this vote as an exercise in futility: the foregone conclusion before anyone goes to the polls is that Aliyev, in office since 2003, is assured of a third, five-year term.

“Many people are dissatisfied with inequality in the distribution of oil revenues, a lack of justice and access to good education and healthcare, but the opposition has failed to turn that into a really massive protest movement,” commented Baku-based political analyst Togrul Juvarly.

At a Sep. 16 news conference in Baku, the main opposition candidate, Jamil Hasanli, a 61-year-old former MP and historian, focused more on the “unequal [campaign] conditions for candidates” and the likelihood of alleged “widespread vote- rigging in favour of Ilham Aliyev” than on his own policy positions. Hasanli receives backing from the National Council of Democratic Forces, a coalition of opposition parties and groups.

“Jamil Hasanli is a respected and decent person, but, unfortunately, the opposition has failed to prepare for the campaign well,” said analyst Elhan Shahinoglu, director of Baku’s Atlas Research Center.

The National Council’s original nominee was celebrity filmmaker Rustam Ibragimbekov. But his candidacy was rejected by election officials on the grounds that Ibragimbekov is a dual national of Russia and Azerbaijan. The prolonged struggle over whether Ibragimbekov could run or not cost the opposition valuable time, noted Juvarly.

The only real unanswered questions now concern the accuracy of the official election results, as well as turnout totals, drily observed Shahinoglu. Western election monitors, it is worth noting, have never evaluated an Azerbaijani election to be free-and-fair.

While the race “is almost invisible for the general public,” according to Anar Mammadli, director of the Baku-based Election Monitoring and Teaching Democracy Center, it is not without a few elements of drama. On Sept. 17, for example, wolves in eastern Azerbaijan ran off with 20 sheep belonging to a shepherd busy watching an election debate on public television, Vesti.az reported.

Ordinary residents of Baku do not appear to share the shepherd’s interest in politics. Only one out of 12 people interviewed recently at random by EurasiaNet.org had heard of any candidates other than President Aliyev.

Aside from Aliyev and Hasanli, the race includes five MPs: Igbal Agazade (Umid (Hope) Party), non-partisan Zahid Oruj, Ilyas Ismayilov (Adalat [Justice] Party), Gudrat Hasanguliyev (United Azerbaijan Popular Front Party) and Faraj Guliyev (National Revival Movement Party).

There are also two low-profile opposition figures vying for the presidency – Social-Democrat Party leader Araz Alizade and Democrat Party chairperson Sardar Mammadov. In addition, the pro-government Modern Musavat Party chief, Khafiz Hajiyev, has presidential aspirations.

Public indifference about the election appears to extend to regional centres that have experienced notable anti-government disturbances. In Guba, a city 180 kilometres to the north where a 2012 riot led to the dismissal of the local, presidentially-appointed government head, “no campaigning or any particular sign” of the presidential election exists, commented Ramin Mahmudov, a local freelance journalist.

The same studied calm prevails in Ismyaili, where similar protests this January led to a series of arrests, including of intended opposition presidential candidate, Ilgar Mammadov.

In both places, voters, appeased by changes in local officials, do not appear inclined to stick their necks out again to demand change.

That mood, however, “will not contribute to free and fair elections,” argued Mammadli, whose election watchdog is conducting long-term monitoring of 89 of Azerbaijan’s 125 constituencies, most outside Baku.

As in elections past, government officials appear to be making free use of huge administrative, financial and other resources, along with media, to tilt the political playing field heavily in favour of President Aliyev, said Juvarly, the analyst.

Representatives of Aliyev’s ruling Yeni Azerbaijan Party have announced that the president will not run a full-fledged campaign because “he does not need it.” Nonetheless, he has visited over 10 regions in the last several weeks to meet with locals, as well as open new manufacturing plants, hospitals and schools. In addition, he has signed executive orders raising salaries for almost all government employees by roughly 10 percent and pensions by 15 percent.

The National Council, along with other opposition hopefuls, had intended to campaign actively in the regions, where socio-economic conditions are worse than in the capital. But as in the case in Baku, sites designated by election officials for campaign rallies have been restricted to the outskirts of regional population hubs.

A lack of campaign hoopla is conspicuously absent from television. Not a single privately run TV or radio station has registered with the Central Election Commission to broadcast paid campaign ads or talk shows and debates about the elections. On-air opportunities for candidates to express their views are limited to Public Television, which is obliged by law to provide each candidate with a total of 18 minutes of free advertising and the possibility to take part in several, hour-long debates. And unlike past elections, foreign journalists are nowhere to be seen in Baku.

Meanwhile, in sync with the start of the school year, discussions on Azerbaijan’s most popular social network, Facebook (with more than one million registered Azerbaijan-based users), tend to focus on education issues rather than on the upcoming presidential elections.

Editor’s note: Shahin Abbasov is a freelance correspondent based in Baku. This story originally appeared on EurasiaNet.org.