Narendra Modi, India’s newly-elected prime minister. Credit: Narendramodiofficial/CC-BY-SA-2.0

By Rajan Menon
NEW YORK, May 23 2014 (IPS)

The Congress Party took a beating in India’s recent parliamentary election and has been now been sidelined by the Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (Indian People’s Party, or BJP).

The spotlight is on Narendra Modi, the BJP’s leader who will be the next prime minister. A former tea vendor, Modi’s humble origins place him in a different world than the Nehru dynasty, which, via the Congress Party, has run India for all but a handful of its nearly seven decades of independence. Rahul Gandhi, Jawaharlal Nehru’s great-grandson, proved a dull campaigner — no match for the charismatic, silver-tongued Modi.

Modi knows that India can close the power gap with China only by achieving and sustaining high economic growth rates [...]. That means fixing what ails the Indian economy: corruption, red tape, and lousy infrastructure [...].
There appear to be two Narendra Modis. The first is the lifelong RSS (Rashtriya Swayam Sevak Sangh, National Volunteer Society) acolyte. Its anodyne name notwithstanding, the RSS is a hyper-nationalist Hindu movement known for its martial drills, uniforms, and belief in the specialness, indeed superiority, of Hindu civilisation.

The movement is committed to “Hindutva,” which sees “Indian” and “Hindu” as interchangeable. Modi has been drinking deeply from the RSS well for years, which is why Indian secularists and non-Hindus, especially Muslims (India has 170 million), are anxious.

Then there’s Modi the competent administrator (of Gujarat state, which he ran as chief minister from 2001-2014) and business-friendly manager who produces positive results, talks the lingo of business, prizes foreign investment, cuts through red tape, and shakes up the bureaucracy – the mastermind of the “Gujarat Miracle.”

Courting what political scientists call the median voter, these were the attributes Modi stressed during the campaign, artfully dodging, in the process, the ghosts of Gujarat’s 2002 communal riots that left 1,000 (mostly Muslims) dead, and 100,000 homeless. His message was basically: “Allow me to take the helm and I’ll do for the country what I did for Gujarat.”

The voters, disenchanted with the Congress, have put him in charge. Now the question is whether we’ll see Modi the ideologue or Modi the pragmatist. I believe the latter will prevail, though the former will inevitably make its presence known, both because Modi will play periodically to his BJP base and because his rhetoric is not just for effect: it reflects his deeply held beliefs.

Since the BJP’s sweeping victory, there’s been much speculation in this country about what kind of foreign policy Modi will pursue. Don’t expect any drastic course correction.

Modi will maintain India’s strong ties with Russia. There’s a long history of cooperation between New Delhi and Moscow that dates back to the early years of the Cold War. While trade and investment with Russia are now far less important for India, Moscow remains India’s chief arms supplier by far. Modi has no reason to rock that boat.

China: Both the Congress and the BJP have long believed that China is India’s principal geo-strategic adversary. That outlook won’t change. Yet things have become more complicated over the last two decades: China is now India’s main trade partner, so the relationship is not all about security and conflict. The Cold War alignment with Russia as a hedge against China won’t be as effective a strategy. China has surpassed Russia in just about every measure of power.

More importantly, the old Sino-Soviet schism is a thing of the past. Moscow and Beijing are united – and have been since the early 1990s – by what each calls a “strategic partnership”; they’ve put their territorial dispute to bed, Russia is China’s main weapons supplier, and Russian energy flows to China, as this week’s mammoth 30-year, 400-billion-dollar gas deal concluded by President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping demonstrated rather dramatically.

Add to all this the economic and military weakness of India relative to China, and Modi, though he is a nationalist who’s attacked previous Indian leaders for not standing up to China, won’t be looking to pick fights with Beijing.

Modi knows that India can close the power gap with China only by achieving and sustaining high economic growth rates – that’s what made Beijing a global power after all. That means fixing what ails the Indian economy: corruption, red tape, and lousy infrastructure, for example. That’s going to take time, but expect Modi to shake thing up on that front.

But there’s another reason why the economy will top his agenda: he knows that’s what Indians care about most and largely why they elected him. Indian economic managers have failed the poor. As a populist and a man who himself arose from modest circumstances, Modi wants to lift up India’s least fortunate.

Pakistan will be Modi’s other foreign policy preoccupation but he’s likely to prove wrong those who think he’ll take a dramatically tougher line toward Islamabad. He has already surprised people by inviting Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif to his swearing-in ceremony and doubtless understands that intermittent confrontations with Pakistan will divert him from focusing on the economy.

War with Pakistan has also become dicier given the risk of escalation to nuclear war. The wild card is a terrorist attack on India that’s traced back to Pakistan. Modi will find himself under tremendous pressure to act decisively, not least because the don’t-mess-with-India message is a key part of his appeal.

India under Modi will continue to strengthen its ties with Israel. The BJP generally and Modi in particular admire Israel and believe that India’s traditional pro-Palestinian policy has earned it little goodwill in the Arab world, which, when the chips are down, backs Pakistan. Modi has visited Israel twice, professing admiration for its economic and technological achievements. Look for more cooperation on economic issues and intelligence sharing on terrorism. Israel can’t supplant Russia as an arms supplier, but India, already a major importer of Israeli arms, will likely buy even more Israel weaponry, especially drones.

Talk of an alliance between India and the U.S. to balance China is hyperbole. New Delhi and Washington have been steadily upgrading their defense co-operation over the years and that will continue; but neither country wants to commit to an alliance.

One country with which Modi is eager to step up its security ties is Japan. The Congress laid the foundation for this, and the BJP will build on it. Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was the chief guest at India’s Republic Day celebration in January, and Modi has invited also him to his inauguration. India is the one Asian power that’s not unnerved by Abe’s commitment to change Japan’s minimalist defense policy. New Delhi wants a strong partner on China’s eastern flank and sees Japan, with its economic and technological prowess, as well suited to that role. Both Tokyo and New Delhi see China as their biggest security problem. Likewise, India will strengthen its ties with Vietnam, another Asian country that is deeply concerned about China’s territorial claims and intentions, as demonstrated last week by clashes between them in South China Sea.

In all, those expecting big changes from Modi on the foreign policy front are apt to be disappointed. While he believes that India is destined to be a global power, he also understands that that goal will never be met unless India gets its economic act together. If Modi makes big changes, they’ll be on the home front.

(END)

Rajan Menon is the Anne and Bernard Spitzer Professor of Political Science at the Powell School, City College of New York/City University of New York and a Senior Fellow at the South Asian Center of the Atlantic Council. Among his publications are ‘Soviet Power and the Third World ‘(1986) and ‘The End of Alliances’ (2007).

On Feb. 6, a young girl committed suicide by swallowing poison at her home in Kashmir. A few weeks later a teenaged girl from Srinagar hung herself at her residence.

On Feb. 24, two girls from the Budgam district committed suicide by consuming poisonous substances. A few days later, on Feb. 28, a youth ended his life by jumping into the Jhelum River in the Sopore district of North Kashmir on the same day that a 40-year-old man killed himself.

Feb. 29 saw the death, by poison, of another teenaged girl in the same area.

In the month of February alone, over 10 suicide attempts were reported in the Valley, giving just a glimpse of the roughly 17,000 suicides that have been reported in the past 21 years, experts say.

Research on suicides conducted by B.A. Dabla, a sociologist at the University of Kashmir, indicates that an average of 227 suicides have been reported in 27 months in Kashmir, based on medical reports.

The study, which is yet to be made public, says that 62 percent of all suicide cases involve females. Youth in the age group of 17-26 are found most likely to take their own lives, though teenagers as young as 13 years old have also committed suicide over the last two decades.

Suicide rates in Kashmir were negligible before insurgency hit in 1989. The past 21 years of conflict have seen a sudden surge in suicides, with researchers at Kashmir’s sole Psychiatric Disease Hospital indicating an increase from 0.5 deaths per 100,000 people in 1989 to 20 deaths per 100,000 in 2007.

The National Crime Bureau Records (NCBR) of India states that Kashmir has a higher suicide rate than the Indian states of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, since one person in the Valley commits suicide every day.

The Sher-e-Kashmir Institute of Medical Sciences (SKIMS), Kashmir’s premier medical institute, recorded 248 suicides in 2010.

In 2011, over 1000 suicides cases were registered with SKIMS and the Shri Maharaja Hari Singh (SMHS) hospital of Srinagar.

However, experts believe these numbers are conservative estimates, since media reports and police and hospital records do not present the real scenario of just how rampant suicide has become in Kashmir.

“The actual rate is higher than what is being reported. Because of the social stigma (and shame attached to the act), people do not report suicide attempts or death,” psychiatrist Mushtaq Margoob told IPS.

Particularly in rural areas, suicide cases go largely unreported.

“It is an unfortunate fact that the suicide rate is higher than what we know and (steadily) mounting,” Margoob said.

Along with the increase has come more “efficient” ways of committing suicide.

Earlier, Dabla said, people would threaten their families with suicide, without actually doing themselves any harm. They would jump out of first floor windows or slash their hands – adopting measures that, though harmful, still left them alive.

“But now, the most deadly substances are being used for suicides.”

In urban areas, hanging, jumping into rivers and consuming poison are some of the most common methods. In villages pesticides are often used. Women commonly set themselves ablaze during suicide attempts.

There are many reasons for this surging rate; besides conflict, the level of life-or-death desperation in the Valley has been linked to the drastic rise of psychiatric disorders, which currently affects roughly 800,000 people across Kashmir.

“Impulse control disorders, psychiatric disorders, materialist lifestyles, psycho-social and socio- economic problems are some of the major causes for the increase,” said Mushtaq.

Depression, panic disorder and anxiety are all linked to suicides as well.

Independent psychologist A.G. Madhosh categorises the causes of suicides in Kashmir into social, psychological and anticipatory.

“Social” causes are mostly linked to family pressure, marital status, career, strained relationships and the inability to compete at social levels.

“In urban areas, employment and education are compounding factors,” said Madhosh.

“When students commit suicide after appearing for an examination, it is an ‘anticipatory’ cause,” she explained.

Amongst teenagers, poor impulse control, examination stress, love affairs and parental pressures are found to be prominent reasons for suicides. Experts suggest adoption of a practical system of education, counseling and religious education for preventing suicides.

The epidemic has not only plagued the local population of Kashmir but has endangered hundreds of Indian paramilitary troops deployed in the Valley as well. A recent report issued by the Indian Defense Ministry found that 780 Indian paramilitary troops have committed suicide since 2005, mostly by shooting themselves.

The study shows that 38.56 percent of Indian forces are schizophrenic, 14.17 percent suffer from alcoholism and 9.8 per cent are struggling with depression.

Tremendous psychological stress, loneliness, short leaves and hostile conditions are stated to be major reasons for the rise in suicides amongst troops.

(END)