By Lakshman Ratnapala
SAN FRANCISCO, Feb 4 2015 (IPS)

Global tourism, which stood at a mere 25 million international travelers in 1950 has, over the past decades, experienced such phenomenal growth and diversification that today it has become one of the fastest growing economic sectors in the world.

The resilience of the global travel industry to face calamities is well known.With both technology and travelers' habits changing, the Asian millennial traveler will make a very large chunk of the world travel demographics.

The tourism industry has achieved remarkable growth, from 278 million in 1980 to 528 million in 1995, 1,017 million in 2013 and to an unprecedented 1,138 million in 2014, an increase of 4.7 percent over the previous year.

Modern tourism is closely linked to development and encompasses a growing number of new destinations. These dynamics have turned tourism into a key driver for socio-economic progress.

According to the UN World Tourism Organisation (UNWTO), the business volume of tourism today equals or even surpasses that of oil exports, food products or automobiles.

Tourism has become one of the major players in international commerce and represents at the same time, one of the main income sources for many developing countries.

This growth goes hand in hand with an increasing diversification and competition among destinations and has produced economic and employment benefits in many related sectors-from construction to agriculture or telecommunications.

The World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC) reports that travel and tourism’s contribution to the global economy has risen to 9.5 percent of global gross domestic product (seven trillion dollars) – not only outpacing the wider economy but also growing faster than other key sectors such as financial and business services, transport and manufacturing.

What is more important than the number of tourist arrivals in various destinations, is the growth in value in international tourism receipts because income from foreign tourism is critical to the well being of many of the world’s economies and in some cases to their very existence.

In fact, many governments promote investment in tourism, as a key driver of socio-economic progress through export revenues, the creation of jobs and enterprises and infrastructure development.

UNWTO forecasts international tourist arrivals to grow between 3 percent and 4 percent in 2015 with the strongest growth expected in Asia and the Americas (both 4 percent to 5 percent). Over 300 tourism experts have cited the following reasons for this optimistic forecast for 2015 –

* Continuing demand through 2015, as the world economic situation improves.
* Decline of oil prices.
* Lower transport costs will boost economic growth by lifting purchasing prices and private demand in oil importing economies.

The currently rising value of the U.S. dollar will encourage more Americans to take advantage of better travel deals.

The purchasing power of the American dollar has grown 15 percent against the euro, 10 percent against the yen and 21 percent against the Argentine peso.

While this may be good news for the American traveler, it is bad news for others, the most glaring example of which is Russia where revenue from oil exports have fallen drastically and harsh economic sanctions by the Europeans and the U.S. have sent the Russian economy into a spin, sending the U.S. dollar rocketing to 49 percent against the ruble.

Russia has been a good provider of tourists to several countries, who will now certainly see a drop in arrivals.

Over the next 10 years substantial growth will be driven by Asian inbound destinations and outbound source markets with China leading the way.

The total number of trips abroad from China is estimated to have increased by 11 million to 109 million in 2014. Expenditure was up by 17 percent in the first three quarters of 2014.

China is the world’s largest outbound source market since 2012 with a total expenditure of 129 billion dollars in 2013. With both technology and travelers’ habits changing, the Asian millennial traveler will make a very large chunk of the world travel demographics.

The International Monetary Fund reported that global Gross Domestic Product grew 3.4 percent for 2014 up from 3 percent in 2013. China, India and South East Asia were the key drivers of this growth.

A joint study by the Singapore Tourism Board, Visa and Mc Kinsey & Co. revealed that over the next decade, Asian millennial traveler (AMT) expenditure on international travel is expected to increase by 1.6 times to 340 billion dollars. AMT covers approximately a quarter of Asia’s total population.

The UNWTO expects the number of international arrivals to increase by an average of 3.3 percent a year over the period 2010 to 2030. Over time, the rate of growth will gradually slow on top of growing base numbers.

In absolute numbers, international tourist arrivals will increase by some 43 million a year, compared with an average increase of 28 million a year during the period 1995 to 2010.

At the projected rate of growth international tourist arrivals worldwide are expected to reach 1.4 billion by 2020 and 1.8 billion by the year 2030.

International tourist arrivals in the emerging economy destinations will grow at double the rate (+4.4 percent a year) of that of advanced economy destinations (+2.2 percent a year). As a result, arrivals in emerging economies are expected to exceed those in advanced economies before 2020.

In 2030, 57 percent of international arrivals will be in emerging economy destinations (versus 30 percent in 1980) and 43 percent in advanced economy destinations (versus 70 percent in 1980).

The strongest growth will be seen in Asia where arrivals are forecast to increase by 331 million to reach 535 million in 2030 (+4.9 percent per year). The Middle East and Africa are also expected to more than double their arrivals in this period.

Europe (from 475 million to 744 million) and the Americas (from 150 million to 248 million) will grow comparatively more slowly.

Thanks to their faster growth, the global market shares of Asia (to 30 percent in 2030 up from 22 percent in 2010), the Middle East (to 8 percent, from 6 percent) and Africa (to 7 percent from 5 percent) will all increase.

As a result, Europe (to 41 percent from 51 percent) and the Americas (to 14 percent from 16 percent) will experience a further decline of their share of international tourism.

Edited by Kitty Stapp

Excerpt:

By Lakshman Ratnapala
SAN FRANCISO, Sep 8 2014 (IPS)

It is testing time for global tourism. The ongoing political conflicts across North Africa, compounded by military action in the Middle East, Ukraine and Afghanistan, and the spread of the Ebola virus disease in West Africa have put to the test the ability of international tourism to continue to grow amidst crises.

If past performance is an indication of future results, the answer would be “yes, global tourism can and will meet the challenges of growth” as it has shown during periods of war and pestilence in the past.Around 4.7 million jobs were created worldwide as a result of travel and tourism activity last year, meaning that the sector now supports 266 million people in employment -- that is one in 11 jobs on the planet.

“Not so,” say some observers. In fact, the truth depends on what happens from here on as the winter season travelers from the source markets of Europe and North America flock to sunny climes elsewhere.

First, let’s look at past performance. Last year, 2013, was a banner year for tourism, when for the first time, over one billion tourists travelled the world. However, the real success of tourism lies not in the numbers of tourist arrivals but in the earnings generated by tourism for the national exchequer. By this measure too, last year was a success.

According to the World Tourism Barometer, total export earnings generated by international tourism in 2013 were 1.4 trillion dollars. Earnings by destinations from expenditure by visitors on accommodation, food and drink, entertainment, shopping and other services and goods, amounted to 1.15 trillion.

Growth exceeded the long term trend readings five percent in real terms taking into account exchange rates and inflation. The growth rate of five percent matched the tourist arrivals rate which was also up five percent in 2013.

Apart from these receipts in the destinations, recorded as the travel credit item in the Balance of Payments,
tourism also generated export earnings through international passenger transport services rendered to non-residents. This amounted to 218 billion dollars, bringing total receipts generated by international tourism to 1.4 trillion dollars or 3.8 billion a day, on average, in 2013.

Photo courtesy of Lakshman Ratnapala

Where do we stand now? In the first four months, January to April 2014, destinations worldwide received 317 million international tourists – 14 million more than the same period last year, five percent above UNWTO long term projections. Various indicators point to a strong Northern Hemisphere summer peak season.

Over 480 million tourists were expected to travel abroad during the four months from May to August, which account on average for 41 percent of all international tourist arrivals registered in one year. According to the UNWTO Confidence Index, prospects remained positive for this period. Confidence has picked up among the private sector and improved further in Europe, the Americas and Asia.

Data on international air travel reservations from business intelligence tool ForwardKeys support this outlook with bookings for May-August up by eight percent compared to the same period last year, with intraregional and interregional travel equally strong.

The highest growth in bookings was recorded in international flight reservations from Asian source markets, followed by the Americas. The latest regional hotel data for May 2014 show a diversity in performance, but overall, a positive picture of rising demand.

Meanwhile, the World Health Organization (WHO) has declared the outbreak of the Ebola virus disease in West Africa a public health emergency of international concern. However, the WHO does not recommend any ban on international travel or trade.

The risk of a traveler becoming infected with the Ebola virus during a visit to the affected countries and developing the disease after returning is very low, even if the visit includes travel to areas in which cases have been reported.

Where do we go from here? In assessing the prospects for the rest of the year 2014, one has to bear in mind that most travelers who find their intended destinations in turmoil, will change their vacation or business plans and shift to alternative destinations rather than cancel their plans.

This means that the destination at issue will see a drop in arrivals, but that other destinations take up the slack, keeping the overall global arrival numbers unchanged. For instance, Egypt (-30 percent) and Thailand (-five percent) have seen their tourist arrival numbers dip sharply because of political upheavals, while other countries with similar tourism offerings have increased theirs. Sri Lanka (+27.6 percent), Japan (+27.5 percent) and Vietnam (+27.3 percent) all recorded substantial gains, up to April 2014.

In the first four months, January to April 2014, destinations worldwide received 317 million international tourists – 14 million more than the same period last year, five percent above UNWTO long term projections. For the full year 2014 international tourist arrivals are expected to increase by 4 to 4.5 percent, slightly above UNWTO’s forecast of 3.8 percent per year for the period 2010 to 2020.

According to WTTC research in conjunction with Oxford Economics, travel and tourism’s contribution to the world GDP grew for the fourth consecutive year in 2013, rising to a total of 9.5 percent of world GDP (seven trillion dollars).

Around 4.7 million jobs were created worldwide as a result of travel and tourism activity last year, meaning that the sector now supports 266 million people in employment — that is one in 11 jobs on the planet. International tourism now accounts for 29 percent of the world’s exports of services and six percent of all exports of goods and services.

As a worldwide export category, tourism ranks fifth after fuels, chemicals, food and automotive products, while ranking first in many developing countries.

The results confirm “the increasing role of the tourism sector in stimulating economic growth and contributing to international trade,” says UNWTO Secretary-General Taleb Rifai, adding that it is time to position tourism higher in the trade agenda, so as to maximise its capacity to promote trade and regional integration.

The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of, and should not be attributed to, IPS-Inter Press Service.

Excerpt:

They were a family of farmers and bakers in a war ravaged land with nothing to show for their hard work; no money, no real home.  They made four separate attempts to escape the grinding poverty and the stifling government controls, all to no avail.   They were the family of Binh  Ly and his four brothers.
The country was Vietnam in the aftermath of the reunification of  North and South, following the victory of the communist forces over the Americans and allies. That was thirty eight years ago.

Today, well settled in San Francisco, the Ly family owns the Sugar Bowl Bakery empire,  worth $60 million and growing, built upon hard work, sweet dreams, and  capitalist enterprise.  Binh Ly, now, 67 years old, told The San Francisco Chronicle  “we came over in a refugee boat with nothing and built something good.  Back in Vietnam we worked very hard but made  no money.  Here? You work hard, and with a little luck you can do anything.” Even President Obama, on a visit to San Francisco campaigning for liberalizing the U.S. policy on immigration pointed to Binh  Ly  and his brothers as the embodiment of “what America is about ………. the place where you can reach for something better, if you work hard”.

Before they came to the United States, Binh Ly with his four brothers and 140 other refugees, sat shivering in the cold and fearing for their lives in a hand built 9 foot- wide boat, being tossed upon the waves of a stormy  sea, fleeing Vietnam for Malaysia.  Half the “boat people” were terrified, the other  half too seasick to feel anything but misery.  As the waves tossed the boat up and down for four hellish days, pirates raided the motley crowd and stole everything they had, except the clothes they were wearing.

Finally, they made land and were taken to a refugee camp, where they spent more than a year on a diet of rice and noodles and the rare luxury of a little vegetable, Kang-Kung.  They were always hungry.  That was 1978.

After the ordeal of the refugee camp in Malaysia, the Ly family was transferred to San Francisco.  None could speak English, There were no jobs lined up.  They worked  at whatever  they could. One brother delivered news papers.  Then in 1984 the Ly brothers decided to pool their resources to buy a bakery, the Sugar Bowl, for $40,000.  In a few years they expanded the business to deliver pastries to small shops around town.  Binh Ly was the baker, Andrew Ly  who studied business was CEO.

Over the next 20 years or so, the Sugar Bowl Bakery expanded to six coffee shops and baking plants in San Francisco.  Then, the recession hit the business.  The Ly brothers sold the coffee shops and consolidated production in one baking plant, turning out baked goods for 7,000 companies in the U.S. and in 11 foreign countries.  Annual revenue has increased 50% in the past five years to $60 million, says Bakery General Manager Michael Ly, Binh’s son, 39 years old.  His sister, 34 years old Laura Ly  is Marketing Manager.

When The Chrocnicle writers visited the plant, Laura was inspecting the production line where 75 million puffy, cake like, madeleines are pumped out each year.  The smell of butter, sugar and vanilla filled the air.  She took a deep whiff  of madeleine  and grinned. “This is the land of opportunity.  I feel my family and I have lived that” she said.

Opportunity has come to the Lys through hard work.  Even when President Obama was singing their praises in the  speech in San Francisco, only one brother was there to hear it.  All the other brothers, sons and daughters were hard  at work  baking sugary goodies and smelling the sweet smell of success.

(Lakshman Ratnapala is Emeritus President & chief executive officer of Pacific Asia Travel Association)

The celebrated storyteller Mark Twain (1835-1910) wrote, “Twenty years from now, you will be more disappointed by the things you didn’t do than by the ones you did do. So throw off the bowlines, sail away from the safe harbor. Catch the trade winds in your sails. Explore, Dream, Discover.”

As more and more people take that advice to heart, and set off to explore and discover, global tourism will surge to heights reached never before with a record one billion visits across international boundaries this year.

In the process they will generate trillions of dollars for investment, create one in 12 jobs worldwide, enhance the lives of millions of people and open massive opportunities for the growth and development of countries, rich and poor, all across the world.

Because of its ability to create wealth, tourism plays a major role in achieving the U.N.’s Millennium Development Goals for prosperity, peace and sustainability.

New challenges such as climate change and poverty, hunger and disease make fulfilling these goals more complex and pressing.

Therefore, as the U.N. Summit on Sustainable Development or Rio+20 convenes in Brazil this June, tourism leaders need to forge active partnerships with other sectors of the global economy to reach an inclusive, equitable and sustainable future for all.

Tourism is like fire. If well managed it can serve us; if allowed to master us, it can burn us.

Tourism poses many challenges for the well-being of the global community and the health of our planet – from the cultural degradation of local communities to the complete destruction of their value systems.

What is more, tourists impair the health of the earth by over- visitation of fragile ecosystems and the emissions of CO2 and other pollutants from their modes of transport, from cars and buses to trains and planes.

The global travel industry is now faced with the challenge of making a conscious decision of how it wants to go, where it wants to go – somewhat like Robert Frost in his poem “The Road Not Taken”: “Two roads diverged in a yellow wood…. And sorry I could not travel both…..Two roads diverged in a wood, and I …. I took the one less traveled by….. And that has made all the difference.”

Global tourism seems to have chosen the road “less traveled”. Still, it is stumbling along, not quite sure how it will get to where it wants to go.

Responsible tourism demands that destinations, travel vendors and travelers alike unite in operating tours with a sensitivity to the social, cultural, natural and economic environments of the host communities and of Mother Earth.

Towards that end, the industry has been fostering various forms of what is called sustainable tourism since the 1970s when the environmental movement began.

From this sprang today’s popular concept of ecotourism. It nurtures the desire to travel to natural locations away from the man-made and built-up attractions, allowing the traveler to experience nature in its pristine glory, and to be educated about the culture and lifestyles of lesser known, poorly understood societies, off the beaten path.

Such visits create the beneficial effects of raising funds for the conservation of neglected natural landscapes and cultural monuments, as well as for the economic uplift of impoverished communities.

The flip side of the coin is that the growing popularity of ecotourism has led to abuse and exploitation of vulnerable environments and societies by unscrupulous tour and lodging operators, partly because of the absence of an internationally accepted single definition of what constitutes ecotourism, often interchanged with sustainable tourism, green tourism, nature tourism, etc.

Tourism organisations and conservationist groups have their own definitions of ecotourism. Individual tour operators and governments also muddy the water by promoting their own definitions.

In the broadest sense, however, ecotourism is travel to ecologically and culturally sensitive locations with the least negative impact thereon.

It is, of course, not possible for humans to travel anywhere without any negative impact, because even getting there causes environmental damage by the spread of carbon pollutants.

Airplanes are among the worst emitters of pollutants in the travel industry, although the International Air Transport Association counters that airplanes contribute only two percent of global manmade CO2 emissions – less than the flatulence of the cows in Europe!

Tourism will add 43 million more visitors every year, to top 1.8 billion arrivals by 2030, challenging the conservation of earth’s resources more, even as these resources suffer more damage and become less available.

It is, therefore, critical that travelers be educated to be sensitive to the environments of the places they visit and understand they have a great responsibility to Mother Earth. In today’s world of many interconnections, tourism cannot stand alone, and apart, from the global community.

We need to act together for the collective interest over self- interest. As Nelson Mandela discovered, “after climbing a great hill, one only finds there are many more hills to climb.”

*Lakshman Ratnapala is Emeritus President & CEO of the Pacific Asia Travel Association.