Protests against military coup in Kayin State, Myanmar on Feb. 9. This weekend saw the bloodiest day of protests after the police and security forces fired live ammunition into crowds of protestors. Analysts fear that more bloodshed is almost inevitable. Courtesy: Ninjastrikers/(CC BY-SA 4.0)

By Larry Jagan
BANGKOK, Mar 2 2021 (IPS)

Myanmar activists have called on the international community for help as security forces loyal to the military continue their draconian sweep against the civil disobedience campaign that has brought the country to a standstill since the Feb. 1 coup. The pleas come as analysts, commentators and diplomats who know Myanmar fear that more bloodshed is almost inevitable.

This comes in the wake of the bloodiest day of protests on Feb. 28 after police and security forces fired live ammunition into crowds of protestors in Yangon, Dawei, Mandalay, Myeik, Bago and Pokokku.

According the United Nations human rights office, 18 people were killed and over 30 wounded. Local rights’ groups, however, believe the figure is much higher.

Several eye-witnesses have told IPS that police are invading houses, breaking down fences, doors and windows – whatever stands in their way – to conduct searches and carry out indiscriminate arrests without a warrant. Soon after the Feb. 1 coup, military leaders changed the law to allow unrestricted search and arrest, as well as indefinite detention.

“It’s a total war zone,” Walter Khun, a Myanmar citizen and founding partner with financial advisors based in Yangon, told IPS. “Our associates throughout the country are reporting the same: junta troops terrorising civilians.”

Blistering military crackdown

Over the past two days there have been scores of reports of police systematically looting shops and homes, stealing food from markets and commandeering possessions from private homes.

“They’re turning the country into a massive battlefield,” Zaw Naing, a local Myanmar businessman, told IPS. His statement was echoed by many other sources with whom IPS spoke.

Increased troops and police are being deployed across Myanmar, with convoys of soldiers and sailors being sent in as reinforcements to the strategic towns of Mandalay, Mawlamyine, Monywar, Taunggyi and Dawei.

Ruthless police charges with rifles have been filmed and posted on Facebook. In Kalaymyo – in the Sagaing region north of Mandalay – citizens managed to push advancing police with riot shields and a water cannon back. Skirmishes have also be reported in Mandalay and elsewhere.

Today, Mar. 2, the sound of gunfire was heard irregularly throughout the city of Yangon. Eye-witnesses were unable to distinguish whether it was live ammunition or rubber bullets.

In Sanchuang, in the northern-central part of the city, security forces conducted training exercises on the footpaths with snipers lying on the ground and taking aim with their rifles. Videos of the incident flooded Facebook and other social media outlets. 

Security forces have also erected barricades and blockades at strategic roads and thoroughfares to prevent the protestors fleeing from one part of the city to another. As of today, Mar. 2, authorities have ordered all of Yangon’s major shopping centres, including Junction Square, Capital Retail Myanmar and Myanmar Plaza to close indefinitely.

Many big supermarkets are also closed. Some believe this is part of the security forces control and dispersal strategy to prevent protestors taking refuge inside shopping complexes when the police charge.

Condemnation not enough – please for international intervention

While international condemnation has been swift and strong, the protestors are demanding international intervention.

“Protestors are being shot. We are very angry, we are very upset,” Ma Myint, a 30-year-old young communications graduate from north of Yangon, told IPS. “How many dead bodies does the UN need to act?” she asked after Sunday’s deaths.

Reuters reported that today, Mar. 2, that the Association of Southeast Asian Nations held discussions with the military, urging them to release civilian leader Aung San Suu Kyi and leaders from her National League for Democracy (NLD).

“The UN is watching, the US is watching, the whole world is watching but when will they act? We need international intervention based on the ‘right to protect,’” young professional, Thiri Kyaw Nyo, told IPS. “The must act otherwise there will be more bloodshed in the coming weeks.”

Dr Sa Sa, Myanmar’s Special Envoy to the UN – who represents the elected MPs — called on the international community to bring the authorities to justice for “crimes against humanity”.

“It’s time for the international community to act to protect our innocent, defenceless people who dare to stand up to these thugs who now controlling our country,” Dr Sa Sa told IPS in an extensive interview.    

Fears that more bloodshed is inevitable.

Analysts, commentators and diplomats fear that more bloodshed is almost inevitable.

According to military sources the security forces standing orders and rules of engagement are to respond if attacked and the use of lethal force is permitted. 

Regional military analysts believe the security forces have been relatively restrained compared to their past practices, including the crushing of the 1988 democratic uprising. The fear is the closer it gets to Mar. 27, Armed Forces Day – the anniversary celebrations for the military — the more they will not tolerate the continued civil disobedience campaign and protests in the street. Some analysts expect the army to deploy its full military might against the protests before then.

The military have been progressively ratcheting up their response – highlighted by Sunday’s tragic events.

Protests will continue

Sa Sa vowed the protests would continue despite the security forces crackdown.

“We must continue to remind the army that we are not giving up, we are not going away, and we will continue to frustrate their efforts to run the country at every turn,” said Sa Sa.

The protest movement is having a dire effect on the junta’s ability to rule. Banks are closed, government offices empty and the country’s fuel supplies are running dangerously low. Hospitals, universities and schools are mostly closed, and most factories have also been idle for the last four months.

Myanmar is virtually at a standstill.    

But Sa Sa insisted the protests must remain non-violent. “We are a non-violent movement, our weapons are our voice, our mobile phones and social media,” Sa Sa said.

“It’s the army that are committing crimes.

“These are the ones who facing real criminal charges and international justice at the Hague [at the International Court of Justice], they are the ones who should be in prison … not our leaders [referring to Suu Kyi and other NLD leaders] … they must be made accountable for their crimes.”

Suu Kyi appeared in court on Feb. 16 on charges of violating import restrictions after walkie-talkies and other foreign equipment were found in her villa compound. She and other senior leaders, as well as human rights activists have been detained under house arrest since the coup.

Protests about more than release of Suu Kyi

On the surface the protests seem to be leaderless and an expression of aspirations of the young – most of the protestors are under the age of 30.

But the civil disobedience movement encompasses more than the street campaigners.

While the movement is largely galvanised around releasing Suu Kyi, and a call for the military to abide by the election results of the November polls that saw Suu Kyi’s NLD convincingly win the majority vote, the campaign is much broader.

Myanmar’s civil servants — the doctors, nurses and health workers who initiated the civil disobedience campaign four weeks ago — are still on strike despite the junta’s threats and intimidation, according to a young doctor heavily involved in the movement in Mandalay.

The doctor, who did not want to be named, told IPS: “They are serious about protecting democracy, and have vowed not to stop till the coup commander is defeated and the culture of coups eradicated forever.”

Myo Win, activist and executive director at Smile Education and Development Foundation, told IPS: “It’s much broader: it’s about completing the transition to democracy, ripping up the 2008 constitution and replacing it with a democratic, federal state, and ending military dictatorships forever.”

The 2008 constitution allows for the military commander-in-chief to take power in extreme cases.

A cat and mouse game between security forces and protestors

Meanwhile, local community neighbourhood watch teams have cordoned off areas in Yangon’s townships, built their own makeshift barriers and mounted 24-hour guard, to prevent the police venturing into their townships and impeding their advance charges.

“It’s a ‘cat and mouse’ game between the security forces and the protestors,” said one of the 1988 protests veterans who is involved in organising logistics — communicating over walkie talkies with protestors.

At street corners in Yangon, protestors are reportedly keeping watch and warning others when police enter nearby streets. Upon alert, many take refuge to wait until the police pass before reemerging, singing songs and shouting.

“They’re organised in small groups of protestors throughout the city and are keeping the revolutionary flame alive,” Nyein Chan Aung, a veteran activist from the 1988 protests, told IPS.    

The campaigners are determined to continue irrespective of what the security forces throw at them.

“This is about our future,” said Ma Myint. “Our future is being taken away from us … we feel like that: we do not want to go back to the darkness. We were looking forward to a brighter future, now suddenly it’s gone dark.”

“I am very sad, and filled with grief for those who have died already in the struggle,” Sakura Ra, a young advertising professional who has given up her job to join the protests every day, told IPS.  “But we’re fighting for freedom and democracy – we are fighting for our future – we are fighting for our children’s future: we will fight to the end, we will never give up,” she told IPS.

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Protesters demand the release of civilian leader Aung San Suu Kyi. The protestors remain defiant in the face of the security forces tightening the screw. They are facing daily intimidation, threats and harassment at the hands of the police and soldiers strategically station to discourage and disperse the protests. CC BY-SA 4.0

By Larry Jagan
BANGKOK, Feb 17 2021 (IPS)

Myanmar’s top generals have begun the process to prevent Aung San Suu Kyi – the country’s popular civilian leader – from ever holding political power. Both she and president Win Myint were arraigned in a closed-door court session via video link Tuesday, Feb. 16. This is the beginning of a trial that is expected to take about six months to conclude. If convicted, it will prevent Suu Kyi from standing in future elections.

Suu Kyi is charged with violating import restrictions after walkie-talkies and other foreign equipment that were found in her villa compound. They were discovered during a search of her premises on Feb. 1, the day the military launched a coup, seizing all judicial, executive and legislative power, placing it in the hands of the commander-in-chief Senior General Min Aung Hlaing.

The Nobel laureate has also been charged with contravening a natural disaster management law by interacting with a crowd at an election rally during the coronavirus pandemic. A charge that was added after her original arrest and only publicly disclosed at her hearing. Win Myint is  charged with breaking COVID-19 restrictions. They reportedly appeared without legal representation.

The coup leaders have promised elections sometime next year after the state of emergency they have imposed is lifted. The authorities are still investigation more serious accusations related to receiving foreign funds – which could amount to charges of treason.

The military commanders also seem intent on preparing a case against her party – the National League for Democracy (NLD) — in order to ban it from politics and declare it an illegal organisation. The NLD, which overwhelmingly won last November’s poll, remains a thorn in the military’s side as for the past three weeks protestors have hit the street in their hundreds of thousands, to defend democracy and reject the coup.

“The civil disobedience movement is a non-violent campaign which was started by young doctors across the country: it was a spontaneous grassroots response to the coup,” Thinzar Shunlei Yi, a prominent activist involved with the protest in Yangon, told IPS. “It has grown daily as the civil servants have inspired others to defend our democracy,” she added.   

The protestors remain defiant in the face of the security forces tightening the screw. They are facing daily intimidation, threats and harassment at the hands of the police and soldiers strategically station to discourage and disperse the protests. But troops, tanks and water cannons have not deterred the protests, which are growing daily. But the strength of the movement is that it encompasses all generations, all walks of life, civil servant and workers. All of whom support democracy, though a large proportion also support the NLD.

“This is very different from the 1988 pro-democracy demonstrations when the student movement aspired to democracy but didn’t really know what it meant,” Nyein Chan Aung an 88-year-old veteran told IPS. “This time they know what they want, they know what they are losing, and they are very, very angry.”   

Meanwhile, the military are clearly on a mission to overhaul and restructure the country’s fledgling democracy, turning the clock back to the dark days of direct military rule.

For the past three weeks the new junta has rolled out a new administration: from national, provisional to district and wards. Removing the previous elected incumbents and putting in people close to the military.

The Supreme Court has been transformed, with the previous NLD appointments routed out and replaced with judges loyal to their military masters. The Union Election Commission has also been dismissed and swapped with military loyalists. Key ministries have also been targeted and military officers and personnel infiltrated, often at the highest level. This was the common practice during the previous military regime. But the public service has been largely transformed in the last ten years with comprehensive public reform.

“The militarisation of the bureaucracy is under way again I fear,” a former diplomat told IPS on condition of anonymity. “In the past it destroyed civil servant moral, civil service efficiency and expertise, and made the bureaucracy another arm of the military — stripped of initiative and think independently – making it powerless to do anything else but follow orders and recreating a truly authoritarian state.”

But the military junta has also dealt a death blow to developing democratic ideals and practices, with the worst being the wholesale changes in the laws and new edicts. Activists and human rights groups in Myanmar have condemned these measures as unacceptable and a gross erosion of basic civil and human rights, especially the changes to citizens protection and security laws.

These include prisoner’s right to a lawyer – Suu Kyi has been denied access to her lawyer since she was detained at the beginning of February.

It also includes the right to detain prisoners for an unlimited the right to arrest people without a warrant and search homes unimpeded by local administrators, carry out surveillance unconstrained, intercept any form of communications, and ask for users’ information from operators.

The government has also enacted a draconian Cyber Law which essentially allows them full access to digital information and all social media – with the right to prosecute anyone they deem has crossed the line.

“The changes in the laws amount to the removal of all rights of freedom of speech, association and liberty as well as the rights associated the rule of law and fair trial,” Stephen McNamara, a UK lawyer who has worked with lawyers in Myanmar since 2007, told IPS.

“These changes in the basic laws of Myanmar are wider than any amendments since the nineteenth century. It reflects a military that intends to stay in power for a very long time,” he told IPS.

The fact that the military launched the coup when it could not get its own way clearly reflects the army’s mentality and priorities. They could not accept the NLD’s crushing victory in the elections – and the second time in five years.

They were shocked by the extent of their electoral triumph victory and had been counting on being able to form some sort of coalition government with various parties, including their pro-military partners, ethnic political parties and even the NLD if they did not have an overwhelming victory. 

The military foresee a political future where the army is an integral part of the political setup — integrated into the power structure and administration much like the way they see Thailand.  In fact the Commander in Chief is very fond of what he sees as the model – an important role for the army, where their economic interests are protected, a self sufficient economy and ‘democratic’ outlook – which resists leftist, socialist or communist leanings. It is a concept of pluralist democracy with no interest group having the dominant role or power.

Of course the coup leaders also see former Senior General Than Shwe’s ‘roadmap to democracy’ — developed in 2003 by the then intelligence chief and prime minister — as the model to be followed. This projected the final stage before a more liberal form of democracy as a coalition government of national unity. But always the emphasis was on a ‘guided democracy’. So while they are trying to turn back the clock to when the first elections were held – they have in fact wound it back into the dark ages.

“The soldiers, police and their hired thugs come out at night and wage a war of terror against the people – targeting prominent leaders of the protest movement – and conducting their campaign of intimidation, harassment and arrests,” Nyein Chan Aung told IPS.

“But this is different from 1988, and the new generational tactics have armed the protestors with weapons that will help defeat the military in the long run. With mobile phones, the internet and social media the civil disobedience movement has a voice that’s being heard across the world. The military’s tactics are doomed to fail this time round.”

Suu Kyi’s trial is expected to proceed on Mar. 1.

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A protestor in Myanmar holding up the three-finger salute of opposition to military dictatorship from the film “Hunger Games” which was popularised by the democracy protests in Hong Kong and Thailand. Courtesy: CC BY-SA 4.0

By Larry Jagan
BANGKOK, Feb 8 2021 (IPS)

Myanmar is in a deep political crisis. Over the past week — reminiscent of the pro-democracy demonstrations of 1988 — Myanmar’s citizens are openly and publicly challenging the country’s powerful military, whose coup earlier this month now threatens to stifle the country’s fledgling democracy.

Since the weekend, thousands of people have come out onto the streets in most of the country’s major cities in defiance of the military authorities: noisily opposing the coup and demanding that Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy (NLD), which overwhelmingly won the November election, be allowed to form a civilian government.

These demonstrations of support for democracy are growing daily with thousands and thousands across Myanmar voicing their rejection of the military coup.

It is like 33 years ago when millions of students, civil servants, workers and Buddhist monks took to the streets demanding democracy. Those protests provoked the military to seize power in a coup in September that year.

Again, the future of the country’s transition to democracy has reached a critical crossroads. After weeks of tension between the military and the elected civilian government of Suu Kyi, the Commander-in-Chief Senior General Min Aung Hlaing seized power in a military coup on Feb. 1 and assumed all government powers – of the executive, judiciary and the legislature – for 12 months after which fresh elections would be held and power transferred to the winner.

Protests started with noise & via social media

People spontaneously started to demonstrate their opposition to the coup by creating a cacophony of noise – beating drums, banging, blowing trumpets and singing in unison every night at 8pm. Since then the ‘banging brigade’ has got louder and louder, as the country’s main urban centres come to a standstill and all that can be heard is the rhythmic sound of the beating of pots and pans all showing their opposition to the military and support for Suu Kyi.

“Most people in Myanmar support the ideals of democracy and want the army to withdraw from politics permanently,” Shwe Yee Myint Saw, who has joined the street protests almost every day from when they started on the weekend, told IPS.

The vast majority of those who have taken to the streets are under the age of 30. “You see the youth of this country understand what we lost in 30 years of military misrule, and we can’t afford a repeat of that.”

Peaceful protest in #Myanmar . #HearTheVoiceOfMyanmar #SaveDemocracy pic.twitter.com/WN0e98ehdU

— khant thaw (@akthaw) February 7, 2021

As in 1988, the charismatic pro-democracy icon Suu Kyi – and leader of the NLD — is at the centre of the movement. She was detained last Monday, Feb. 1, when the military launched their coup and arrested her in an early morning raid. She remains under house arrest and has been charged for possession of illegally imported radios that were used without permission – six walkie-talkie radios were found in the search of her home after she was arrested. If convicted it would bar her from contesting any future elections, including those the military have promised to hold later next year.

Most of the country’s civilian leaders were also detained in these dawn raids. This included all key politicians, regional chief ministers, government ministers, the top leadership of the governing NLD, most national and local members of parliament, and hundreds of pro-democracy and human rights activists. Many of them have been released since and effectively sent home to house arrest.

In the past week the opposition to the coup has built momentum and a concerted campaign of civil disobedience grew through the use of social media.

“We have digital power, so we’ve been using this to oppose the military junta ever since the start of the coup,” human rights activist Thinzar Shunlei Yi, who is one of the main organisers of the ‘Civil Disobedience Movement’ which has taken Myanmar by storm since the coup, told IPS. “And we must continue to use it: to seek an immediate end to this culture of coups.”

Banks reopened in Yangon, Myanmar on February 2 after closing the day before. Credit: IPS / Yangon stringer

Health workers went on strike

The social media protests quickly snowballed into a civil disobedience campaign initiated by the country’s health workers. The day after the coup, the country’s health workers galvanised public resistance to the military by refusing to work under a military government.

“It isn’t that we don’t care about our patients – we certainly do — but we can’t work under a military government again,” Dr Mya Oo, a doctor at Mandalay General Hospital who went on strike the first day, told IPS. “We all feel we must do everything we can to stop this bullying and preserve our democracy.”

Support for the opposition movement has grown enormously ever since, affecting hospitals, schools and other government offices. Although the doctors and nurses in the two main cities of Mandalay and Yangon took the lead — refusing to work and gathering outside their hospital to protest against the military coup — it quickly grew to government ministries, schools and universities throughout Myanmar.

Pictures can be seen of staff congregating together in uniform, wearing the red ribbon of protest, and defiantly holding up the three-finger salute of opposition to military dictatorship from the film “Hunger Games” – popularised in the democracy protests in Hong Kong and Thailand. There has also been a flood of resignations from government posts.

Civilians on the street

It culminated over the weekend, when the campaigners took to the streets to demonstrate their anger at the coup and its leaders. Their main grievance is the army’s seizure of power has effectively annulled the results of last November’s election which Suu Kyi and the NLD convincingly won.

“We voted for Aung San Suu Kyi and now the military are trying to steal this election from us and put us under their harsh controlling power like before,” Sandar, a young university graduate, told IPS. “We won’t stand for it: we have tasted democratic freedom and we know it’s the only way for our country to develop,” she said.

In most urban centres across the country, there are massive demonstrations of support for Suu Kyi demanding the military respect the election results. More and more civil servants are joining the movement. And now there are calls for a general strike.

“The ‘civil disobedience movement’ is a non-violent campaign – started by young doctors across the country which has inspired everyone and has grown into a mass protest involving all sectors of society,” Thinzar Shunlei Yi told IPS. 

Suu Kyi is believed to have signalled her support for the movement in messages from her house arrest in the capital Naypyidaw, according to senior party officials. Late last week the NLD central executive committee released a statement supporting the current Civil Disobedience Movement.

“In order to take back the country’s sovereignty – invested in the people — and restore democracy, all the people of Myanmar people should support this political resistance movement — in a peaceful and non-violence way,” the statement read.

So far the authorities have been powerless to stem the movement. But as the momentum grows there are increasing fears of a major confrontation between the peaceful protestors and the security forces.

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After months of speculation and rumours, President Thein Sein of Myanmar (earlier Burma) has created a “super” cabinet to try to salvage his besieged administration – riven with divisions and inertia. Currently he is embroiled in a constitutional crisis – a battle for power between the president and the parliament – that threatens to paralyse the government until it is resolved. This has left the president increasingly isolated, with only the army offering concrete support.

“The reform process has been stalled for months by an apparent struggle between hardliners opposed to reform and liberals who supported it,” Sean Turnell, an academic at Macquarie University in Australia told IPS. “There seems to have been a backlash against reform, especially of the economic variety, and it seemed to be gaining momentum in recent months.”

Earlier this week the president began to roll out his long planned massive shake-up in government – involving extensive cabinet changes and a significant overhaul of the civil service. This is aimed at reforming and modernising the country’s antiquated government machinery and, more importantly, to boost economic development.

President Thein Sein deliberately adopted a strategy of increasing his control on the reigns of power in order to stifle the growing criticism inside the country and shore up international support.

“The timing of the reshuffle was planned so as to divert attention from the crises the president is facing,” Myanmar activist and commentator Khin Zaw Win told IPS.

Certainly last week the violence between Buddhists and Muslims in the country’s western Arakan state was the talk of the town; this week it’s the cabinet changes. “Now the right men are in the right positions,” said Aung Tun, a street stall vendor in downtown Yangon (earlier Rangoon).

The cabinet reshuffle announced earlier this week is a work in progress intended also to get the reform process back on track. More than a dozen cabinet ministers have been replaced or sacked so far, with more to come; and more than 20 new deputy ministers have been appointed in the largest shake-up in the Burmese government since Thein Sein took power last year and embarked on his ambitious reform process.

Most of the new junior ministers are former academics, businessmen and bureaucrats, like the new deputy minister for economic planning Winston Set Aung – a businessmen and economic consultant, who has been acting as an economic advisor to the president over the last 12 months. At least half of the new deputy ministers are former civil servants, according to diplomats in Yangon who closely follow these matters. In the past serving military officers of former military men would have been co-opted.

In this week’s sweeping shake-up, Thein Sein replaced the ministers responsible for information, economic planning, finance, industry and railways. These ministries are being transferred to the president’s office. The finance minister Hla Tun, economic planning minister Tin Naing Thein, industry minister Soe Thein and railways minister Aung Min have all effectively been promoted and transferred to the president’s office to oversee the running of the economy. “It’s more a reorganisation than a reshuffle,” said a government insider.

Earlier this month President Thein announced that the government’s immediate priority was to boost economic growth by 8 percent a year and provide real income growth for everyone. Many Myanmar economists believe the president’s plans are overambitious and unrealistic, especially the proposed increase of per capita income to 3,000 dollars by 2015.

The economic ministers, on whose shoulders this Herculean task now rests, will oversee the process from the president’s office. This means they will work directly under the president, which will free him up to concentrate on other matters, according to his political advisors. It will increase their direct access to the president and give them greater authority.

“It’s all part of streamlining the decision-making process to make the president and his ministers more effective,” said a government insider. But it is also a process of centralising power in the president’s office – with the creation of an elite team of ministers – a super cabinet – that will take responsibility for most of the government administration.

The current cabinet reshuffle shows the president’s commitment to the reform, according to many analysts. “The signs are very good that this new Cabinet will help unblock the recent log-jam in the reform process and generally push for greater economic liberalisation,” said the Australian economic expert, Sean Turnell. “Many of the new ministers and deputy ministers are very committed economic reformers.

But Thein Sein’s other aim is to improve the efficiency of the government bureaucracy and inject new blood into the administration. Competency, efficiency and effectiveness are now to be the watchwords for the government and the civil service, many diplomats in Rangoon believe.

“The battle between the hardliners and reformers has been exaggerated,” a presidential advisor told IPS on condition of anonymity. “The faultline is between competence and incompetence; between effectiveness and ineffectiveness.”

Thein Sein’s latest initiative was prompted by the recent appointment of a new vice-president – the former naval commander Nyan Tun. Curiously he is something of a Thein Sein clone: softly spoken, fiercely loyal and very cautious. But he will also steadfastly uphold the interest of the military, according to sources close to him.

Nyan Tun’s appointment is essentially the army’s way of supporting the beleaguered president. They are committed to Thein Sein and his reform agenda, according to informed sources inside the military. The army chief vice senior general Min Aung Hlaing in particular has emerged as a staunch supporter of Thein Sein. He wants the democratic experiment to work.

As campaigning for the Apr. 1 poll in Burma (also Myanmar) gets into full-swing, there are misgivings on whether the National League for Democracy (NLD) party of pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi will get a fair deal.

NLD spokesman Nyan Win at a Feb. 20 press conference in Rangoon. Credit:Mizzima

The election is a test of strength between the liberals who support President Thein Sein’s reform agenda, and hardliners who seem intent on derailing the reform process, despite publicly declaring support for it.

Already NLD spokesman Nyan Win has complained of difficulties in getting permission to use public venues for its meetings. “We want fair play, but restrictions have lately increased. We hope the government keeps its word and allows a free and fair election,” he told IPS.

Suu Kyi, however, needs no venues and thousands of supporters and well-wishers flock her routes to catch a glimpse of the iconic figure who spent most of the last 20 years under house arrest.

Everywhere the reception has been the same, with adoring crowds yelling their support for the Nobel peace laureate who led the NLD to a landslide victory in 1990 – only to be thwarted by the military which refused to hand over power.

“She’s treated like a pop star,” said freelance journalist Min Thu who has been following her entourage. “The excitement is overwhelming as people want to see her, waive to her, and for those close enough, to touch her.”

“Now we can have democracy,” said Aye Win, a retired schoolteacher in Rangoon. “When she is elected she will help end poverty and repression in the country,” she told IPS over email.

The NLD is contesting almost all the seats – 40 in the lower house, six in the upper house and two in the provincial assemblies.

While this represents less than 15 percent of the seats in the national assembly – 440 seats in the lower house and 224 in the upper house – the results are less important than the way in which the polls are conducted.

“Suu Kyi’s decision to run for parliament is an extremely important move for the future of the country,” said Prof. Sean Turnell, a Burma specialist at Macquarie University, Australia, who recently visited the country.

“She is uniquely placed to drive reform forward and bring on board a substantial constituency to help maintain that momentum,” Turnell told IPS.

United States secretary of state, Hillary Clinton, stressed the need for the by-elections to be free and fair when she met government leaders in December in the capital of Naypyidaw.

Since then the mantra has been constantly repeated. United Nations human rights envoy, Tomas Ojea Quintana, on his mission there last month, said that any rolling back sanctions was dependent on the conduct of the by-elections.

“We have taken the necessary measures so that the upcoming by-elections will be free, fair and credible,” speaker of the lower house, Shwe Mann, told European Union development commissioner, Andris Piebalgs, last week.

Piebalgs, who announced a new 150 million euro (198 million dollars) aid package for Burma, said in a statement that the purpose of his visit was “to assess the ongoing reforms and encourage their continuation.”

However, many leaders of the army-backed, ruling Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) are not happy and there is evidence that they are trying to scupper the NLD’s campaign.

This became evident a few weeks ago when Suu Kyi wanted to speak to her supporters in Mandalay. The EC gave her permission to speak, but she was not allowed the use of the main stadium there to address the rally.

On her first trip to the Dawei industrial zone in southern Burma it became clear that former fisheries minister and USDP central executive member, Maung Maung Thein, had warned residents that if they did not vote for the USDP they would lose their jobs, sources told IPS.

Maung Maung Thein has considerable business interests in the area – especially in the fishing industry – and he has also been accused of colossal corruption.

All along the main road in Suu Kyi’s constituency of Kawmhu on the outskirts of Rangoon there are big, colourful billboards giving credit to the USDP for infrastructure projects, medical centres and schools built by the government.

This may not dissuade voters from electing Suu Kyi, but may influence voting in other parts of the country.

The pro-democracy leader is not anxious to cry foul. “We have certainly come across a few hitches in the last couple of weeks with regards the campaign of the NLD,” she told reporters.

“We hope that these will be sorted out because free and fair elections depend on how a campaign goes, not just how people are allowed to cast their vote on the day itself,” she said.

“The problem is access to resources, and when so much is at stake that there will be setbacks,” said Aung Naing Oo, a former activist and now development specialist who returned to Burma from exile in Thailand for the first time in 20 years.

“There will always be obstacles to democratic change in the short-term, especially the danger of vote buying,” he told IPS.

While the NLD may win most of the seats it contests, it will be a minority party in the parliament. More than 70 percent of the parliamentary seats are already held by the pro-military legislators from the USDP, including many who are serving soldiers nominated by the army chief.

“Even if she is the leader of a minority party in parliament, Suu Kyi will be a potent symbol for national reconciliation and democratic change,” said Nyo Myint, a political analyst and pro-democracy activist based in Chiang Mai, Thailand. “The lady is showing her trust in the government,” he said.

(END)

By Larry Jagan
BANGKOK, Apr 25 2011 (IPS)

Already Burma’s new civilian government poses problems for its Asian allies as it tries to woo the international community. The month-old quasi-civilian administration, led by President Thein Sein has launched a new diplomatic charm offensive in an effort to get international approval for the cosmetic changes that have been introduced under the guise of a new civilian government.

The President’s first priority is to ensure that the region endorses the changes – and in a move to consolidate that, the Thein Sein has already written to the ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) secretary-general Surin Pitsuwan, renewing their bid to become chairman of the organisation.

It is the first salvo in a new diplomatic offensive to secure regional and international credibility for the new government and reduce its international isolation.

“The Thein Sein regime is desperate for international recognition,” said Win Min, a Burmese academic currently based in the United States. “It’s crucial for them to gain credibility and a measure of respectability for their new so-called civilian government.”

But this diplomatic offensive on the part of the Burmese leaders will inevitably increase tension between the West, which still supports sanctions against the regime, and Asia, which is keen to integrate Burma into the region’s economy and strategic structures. Burma’s diplomatic initiatives are only likely to intensify the divisions between Asia and the West – especially the U.S. – on how to cope with the problems posed by Burma’s strategic aims.

While the U.S. appointed a special envoy, Derek Mitchell, and the European Union’s revised visa restrictions on government ministers may signal a new preparedness to deal with the new Burmese government, what Burma wants more than tacit recognition, is approval and support, especially from the region.

Immediately after being sworn in as President, Thein Sein wrote to the ASEAN secretariat asking the organisation to accept Burma’s bid to become chairman in 2014.

In 2004, Burma skipped the chance to become chairman in 2006, amid international pressure on the group to reject Burma’s turn to chair the regional bloc. Now the government is anxious to take its turn again – and wants ASEAN’s approval at the forthcoming ASEAN summit in Indonesia next month.

But some of Burma’s neighbours remain wary of being used as a pawn in Burma’s global mission to prove the new government represents a significant change – from a naked military dictatorship to pluralist power structure.

The bottom line for many countries in the region is that Burma has always been a thorn in ASEAN’s side, ever since it joined in 1997, and has been a major obstacle to smoother and deeper relations with its strategic partners, especially Europe and the United States.

The emergence of a new civilian government under President Thein Sein has only complicated the situation, especially as the new Burmese administration seeks to get the region’s approval and bolster its international credibility as a legitimately elected government.

China has already been very supportive – and a senior Chinese political leader was the first international visitor to Naypyidaw, only days after the new regime was sworn in. But it is ASEAN approval that Burma craves.

At the ASEAN summit in Hanoi last year Thein Sein – then under Than Shwe’s instructions – pushed for Burma to be given the chairmanship in 2011. The top general’s aim was to have ASEAN endorse the new civilian government by giving it the ASEAN chairmanship. But the request was rejected – and Indonesia, Cambodia and Brunei were conferred as the next three chairs – leaving 2014 as the earliest Burma could expect to become the head of the organisation.

This was a clear message to Burma that concrete change was expected before the new government could become the chairman of ASEAN. It was the only way we could communicate our irritation at being kept in the dark over the planned elections and political change, the ASEAN secretary general Surin Pitsuwan told Inter Press Service in an interview in Hanoi immediately after the meeting.

“ASEAN is very much interested in the peaceful national reconciliation in Myanmar and whatever happens there will have implications in ASEAN, positive or negative,” he said.

Now the countries of ASEAN have been left in a deepening quandary. They want to pressure the Burmese government to become more democratic and transparent while maintaining whatever influence they have on the regime.

“We have to continue to engage with the Myanmar government,” Thailand’s Prime Minister, Abhisit Vejjajiva told correspondents in Bangkok recently. “If we hadn’t that stance, the situation inside the country would be much worse.”

Now it seems the issue of Burma’s chairmanship of ASEAN has returned to haunt the organisation – as it did more than ten years ago. But it is the only leverage the countries of the region have over the regime in Naypyidaw.

“Bullying, coaxing and admonishing them has had no effect,” an Asia diplomat with long contact with the top Burmese leadership said. “If we push too hard they will simply close the door on us, or worse, leave the organisation unilaterally.”

The chairmanship of the organisation may be the only clout ASEAN has with the Burmese regime. But more importantly ASEAN also knows that relations with their main strategic partners – especially Australia, the EU and the U.S. – will almost inevitably be put at risk.

Washington has already chipped into the controversy indicating it would be reluctant to work closely with Burma as its chair. “Obviously, we would have concerns about Burma in any kind of leadership role because of their poor human rights record and domestically,” the State Department spokesman, Mark Toner, recently told reporters in Washington.

So Burma’s diplomatic charm offensive may have already further fuelled the furore between the West and Asia over how to handle Burma; and instead of reducing tension between the two spheres, Burma’s so-called civilian government may have only become another bone of contention between them.

Excerpt:

By Larry Jagan
BANGKOK, Apr 10 2011 (IPS)

A new quasi-civilian government has taken over in Burma, but diplomats, analysts and pro-democracy activists are dismissing it as nothing more than “old wine in a new bottle”.

Burma analysts believe that strongman Than Shwe has only retreated to the backroom. Than Shwe recently stepped down as commander-in-chief of the Burmese army and relinquished day-to-day control of the country after nearly two decades as head of the military junta.

“He is likely to be pulling the strings from behind the curtain,” said the Burmese academic Win Min, now based in the U.S. “He will use his influence behind the scenes, relying on personal patronage and connections.”

“If anyone thinks this new government is a step towards democracy they are sadly mistaken,” said Maung Zarni, researcher at the London School of Economics.

Yet there are those who see change coming to Burma, though not the sort that most Burmese people are yearning for.

A new system of government has been unveiled, in which parliament will play a subsidiary part, and the executive, headed by newly elected president Thein Sein, will play the leading role.

The new government was formed after elections last November, in which the pro-junta Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) won by a landslide. Most western countries, and the pro-democracy movement led by Nobel Peace Laureate Aung San Suu Kyi, have rejected the results as a sham.

But there has been a clear transfer of power to a new generation. Although mainly military men or former soldiers, most of Burma’s new leaders are under the age of 60 and have a technocratic background. Even the military officers turned politicians, who occupy part of the 25 percent of parliament seats reserved for serving soldiers, have a different outlook.

The new army chief, 55-year-old General Min Aung Hlaing, is reported to be a professional soldier keen on restoring the prestigious image of the army tainted by the repression after the uprising of 1988, and the 22 years of authoritarian rule that followed.

There are other signs of change. On his recent visit, senior Chinese leader Jia Qinglin, the fourth most important man in the Communist Party’s political bureau, did not meet Than Shwe. Jia was instead hosted by Thura Shwe Mann, speaker of the Lower House and vice-president of the ruling party USDP.

But there are other signs that those who have resigned or retired from the army no longer have their military stripes. Soldiers no longer guard the homes of former top military officers, including Than Shwe and the former No. 2 leader Maung Aye, either in the capital Naypyidaw or Rangoon, according to residents in these cities. The police have taken over that duty, as they do in most countries that are regarded as civilian democracies.

This is a sign that Burma is moving, albeit tentatively, towards becoming a civilian-governed society. Of course, what Burma is experiencing now is a transition; it is not yet democracy and it may not yet be significant change. It is something akin to Indonesia under Suharto’s Golkar-led government.

This may not be the sort of democracy that most Burmese people want, but it could be a significant step towards an Asian-style democracy. Even in Thailand the military continues to play a significant political role behind the scenes, and in the recent past shown it was not averse to intervening with force as it did in September 2006, the last time the military staged a coup.

This is the critical hope for Burma – a transition similar to what has happened in Bangladesh, Indonesia and Thailand in the last 20 years.

Of course, worrying signs still remain that Burma’s form of “disciplined democracy” as the military prefer to call it, may not match the minimum standards of civilian-military regimes in the rest of Asia. Too many military men and former soldiers dominate the country’s emerging political scene. Change is impossible as the military mind remains entrenched even in the new political system which pretends to be a civilian administration, according to Maung Zarni of the London School of Economics.

Even if the top generals have retired to the back room, the new crop of officers are effectively clones. “The officer corps are a sub-class of society that has come to view themselves as the ruling class, feeling they are eternally entitled to rule,” Zarni said in an interview with IPS.

“Whoever takes their places (Than Shwe and Maung Aye) will not be more enlightened or more progressive, simply because they have all been inculcated with thuggish, racist, sexist and neo-totalitarian leadership values, and only junior generals who are their mirror image have been promoted,” said Zarni.

As yet there is still little room for discussion and dialogue – crucial elements of a democracy or an emerging civilian form of government. Parliament is yet to be a fully functioning legislature, though some questions that had been taboo before – ethnic education issues, land confiscation, the release of political prisoners – were put to the president.

The parliament is now in recess and may not meet again for another year, the minimum set by the constitution. But above all there is no role as yet for Burma’s real opposition – Aung San Suu Kyi and the National League for Democracy (NLD) – though the opposition leader has asked to meet the new president and government, according to senior sources in the NLD.

But there is good reason to remain skeptical. Change will not happen quickly. “The train has left the station, but we don’t know where it going or how long the journey will be,” said a Burmese academic on condition of anonymity.

Excerpt:

By Larry Jagan
HANOI, Apr 10 2010 (IPS)

South-east Asian leaders did not push Burma’s junta too hard at their just- finished annual summit, hoping that a more subtle approach would nudge it to make sure the elections planned for later this year are credible.

The 10-country Association of South-east Asian Nations (ASEAN) took this approach despite international concern about the election, which the main opposition party, the National League for Democracy (NLD), has decided to boycott.

“Quiet diplomacy works much better,” Indonesian Foreign Minister Marty Natalegawa told IPS on the sidelines of the Apr. 8-9 summit here in the Vietnamese capital. “In private we can be more frank and forceful, without them appearing to be under pressure,” he said.

In the past, Burma’s regime complained about Thailand’s ‘megaphone diplomacy’ when former Thai Foreign Minister Surakiart Sathirathai tried to encourage political change during the era of former military intelligence chief and prime minister Khin Nyunt.

After Khin Nyunt was toppled in October 2004, the junta has been extremely loath to openly discuss political developments even with its Asian allies.

But several countries in ASEAN – especially Indonesia, Singapore and Thailand – are intent on pressing the regime, at least privately, to make sure the election does not embarrass the regional grouping that has continually defended the junta publicly.

“We continue to remind the Myanmar government of their promises to hold elections which are internationally acceptable,” said Natalegawa.

While Burma was high on the agenda at the informal and private sessions of the annual ASEAN summit, the group’s official statement made only a passing reference to Burma and the polls. The vote is expected to be in October or November, but the date has not yet been formally announced.

“We underscored the importance of national reconciliation in Myanmar (Burma) and the holding of the general election in a free, fair and inclusive manner, thus contributing to Myanmar’s stability and development,” said the ASEAN Chairman’s statement at the end of the summit.

“The elections should be free and democratic, with the participation of all parties involved, and lead to real national reconciliation,” Vietnamese Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung, who chaired the summit, told journalists at the final press conference. “This would help stabilise the country, creating a base for economic development.”

This is the mildest ASEAN statement for nearly a decade, avoiding mention of the NLD or Aung San Suu Kyi. Burma was also allowed to get off relatively unscathed as the proceedings were overshadowed by the political problems engulfing Thai Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva, who could not even come to the summit.

This suited the Vietnamese, who were at pains to make sure that the reference to Burma was as mild as possible, according to diplomats at the summit who spoke on condition of anonymity.

“Vietnam is not interested in the politics. They simply see Burma as an investment opportunity,” said a Vietnamese journalist. A sign of this is the newly opened direct air link between Hanoi and Moulmein.

It is unlikely to be a coincidence that the Vietnamese prime minister visited Burma shortly before the summit. Hanoi is keen to woo Burma away from its main supporter Beijing, and has been advising its leaders to engage Washington.

Burma is at a crucial juncture and Indonesia has offered its help and experience to it, said Indonesia’s Natalegawa. Indonesia itself has only recently gone through this painful process and can sympathise with Burma, he said, referring to its transition to democracy after the 1998 downfall of the dictator Suharto.

“Our first democratic elections in 1999 were far from perfect. We too had seats reserved for the military in parliament,” he reflected. “But each election since has been better and better. The transition to democracy is a process, and what Myanmar is doing is starting the long journey to democracy with these elections.”

“The coming months will be critical months for Myanmar,” Singapore Foreign Minister George Yeo told journalists at the summit. “But in the end, what happens in Myanmar is for the Myanmar people to decide. We are outsiders… we hope that they would make progress quickly.”

“We hope these elections will provide a mechanism for true national reconciliation,” ASEAN Secretary-General Surin Pitsuwan said in an interview. “And we are ready to offer assistance, help and support.”

The junta has shunned the idea of international observers or monitors. “Obviously an election, as we had in Indonesia in 1999, is more ideal if it can be experienced by foreign friends,” Natalegawa told IPS.

In 1999, Indonesia allowed monitors to observe its first free election after the Suharto era. “But we should avoid the use of monitors or observers,” he said. “The idea of having someone experience the election is more useful.”

But ASEAN leaders are well aware that they have very little influence on the regime. “We are not in a position to punish Myanmar,” said Yeo. “If China and India remain engaged with Myanmar, then we have to.”

But the leaders may also be getting tired of the regime’s unwillingness to open. “All we were told by the Burmese Prime Minister Thein Sein was that there would be elections this year, the five laws controlling the process have been published, and the political parties are now registering,” Surin said.

When the Election Commission has completed preparations, it will announce the poll date, Surin said. “We were given no other details.” He mused: “On the Myanmar issue, we just have to have patience.

Excerpt:

By Larry Jagan
BANGKOK, Apr 7 2010 (IPS)

As election fever grips Burma, the ruling junta is busy preparing a series of steps, including an amnesty of political prisoners, to try to make this year’s vote more credible in the international community.

This has become a priority after the opposition party National League for Democracy (NLD), led by pro-democracy icon Aung San Suu Kyi, decided to boycott the vote, whose date has yet to announced.

The junta plans a mass amnesty of political prisoners, including high-profile activists, according to a senior military source. “Everything is set to take off after Thingyan (Buddhist New Year in mid-April),” said a senior Burmese government official.

A military caretaker government will be announced in early May to run the country until the poll and hand over power to the newly elected civilian government, he said. Then, the pro-junta political party will be formed after the new year. This will be followed by the release of hundreds of political activists, he added.

But many in Burma’s commercial centre Rangoon remain sceptical. “Why should we care, nothing will change,” said an elderly taxi driver, Min Thu. “Burma is unique,” said 28-year-old teacher Maung Maung Thein. “We’ll have a president, but a president with no power,” he laughed.

There will only be 17 ministers in the caretaker military government, said Burmese military sources. Some incumbent ministers may stay in place, but most will retire or enter politics.

The current prime minister, who is expected to retire, recently told confidantes that he has to move out of his government residence in the capital Naypyidaw, by the start of Thingyan festivities.

At least a dozen ministers, including Information Minister Gen Kyaw Hsan, Interior Minister Gen Maung Oo and Agriculture Minister Gen Htay Oo, are expected to resign to take up a political career. The fifth top general and head of military intelligence, Gen Myint Swe, is said to be destined to become prime minister in the interim administration.

“Many major generals and colonels have been brought to the capital for training in the past month,” Burmese academic Win Min, based in the northern Thai city of Chiang Mai, told IPS. “Some will take over the ministries in the interim cabinet and others will become politicians.”

Twenty-five percent of the seats in the new bicameral parliament are reserved for serving soldiers, so some 200 officers will become national parliamentarians. There are also 14 regional parliaments, all with military men turned politicians.

More than a thousand soldiers are enrolled in a school run by army chief Gen Thura Shwe Man. “They are being taught parliamentary procedures and civilian matters in readiness for their new role as politicians,” said Win Min.

But most are unhappy to be seconded from the army, said a researcher who has interviewed several retired officers. After five years – the duration of the parliamentary term – these soldiers would expect to return to the ranks, but fear they will have missed out on several promotions as a result.

“I did not do my officer training to enter politics,” said one colonel confidentially. “I studied so I could become a general some day.”

Several parties, including the Democrat Party and the National Union Party, have submitted registration papers to the Electoral Commission. Though the main pro-junta party is yet to be formed, the pro-government Union Solidarity and Development Organisation is expected to be the military’s main vehicle in the election.

Its leader, the agriculture minister and confidante of senior general Than Shwe, has repeatedly told visiting diplomats that he would become a politician soon. He is tipped to become the new prime minister in the ‘civilianised’ government after the poll.

While the NLD’s absence makes the election process neither credible nor inclusive to many critics, it is what Than Shwe wanted all along.

In late March, the NLD – which won the 1990 poll but was never allowed to form a government – decided against registering because doing so under the election law would mean ditching Suu Kyi. The law bars anyone serving a prison sentence – Suu Kyi is serving a sentence under house arrest – from being a member of a political party.

She has spent more than 14 of the past 21 years in detention, and was also prevented from contesting the 1990 vote because she was under house arrest.

“The main aim of the junta’s election laws is clearly to emasculate the NLD and prevent their leader Daw Aung San Suu Kyi from taking any part in the forthcoming electoral process,” said Justin Wintle, the British biographer of the pro-democracy icon.

“The laws put the opposition in a very difficult position,” said Scot Marciel, the U.S. ambassador to the Association of South-east Asian nations (ASEAN).

Than Shwe hopes to maintain the advantage by releasing political prisoners in May. A list of names has been submitted to him, say sources in Naypyidaw.

While some NLD activists are in the list, the vast majority are ethnic rebels, those active in the 1988 democracy movement and former military intelligence officers. The renowned comedian Zarganar is almost certain to be among them. There will be key ethnic leaders too, possibly even the Shan leader Khun Htun Oo.

Than Shwe hopes that some of them will run in the election so that it looks more inclusive. But as a Burmese political analyst told IPS, the Burmese are not that gullible. “The people will punish the government,” he said on condition of anonymity. “The payback will come at the election.”

Excerpt:

By Larry Jagan
BANGKOK, Oct 3 2009 (IPS)

Following a strict global carbon budget is the only way to ride out climate change — and this is as much the responsibility of developing countries as it is of developed ones.

Globally, all countries need to have reduced their total greenhouse gas emissions by at least 80 percent by 2050 below 1990 levels for the world to stay below two degrees Celsius warming of the earth’s surface. There is a growing international consensus that this target is essential to avoid the most dangerous effects of global warming.

"Climate change is happening now," said a senior energy analyst with the World Wide Fund (WWF), Stephan Singer, in an interview with IPS. "The storms that have devastated the Philippines and are now wreaking havoc in the rest of South-east Asia are a further wake-up call. Inaction is not an option if we are to save jobs, lives and nature," he said.

But action as the only option must be based on a fair distribution of the costs of low carbon developments between rich and poor nations, said the environmental lobby group during the launch of its latest report, ‘Sharing the Effort Under a Global Carbon Budget’ in this Thai capital on Oct. 2 on the fringe of a 12-day United Nations climate change conference in Bangkok that opened on Sep. 28.

Only the total carbon budget approach — the amount of tolerable global emissions over a period of time, set at 1,600 gross tonnes carbon dioxide equivalents (CO2eq) between 1990 and 2050 – will make sure that the devastating effects of global warming are avoided, said the organization.

CO2eq is a universal standard of measurement against which the impacts of releasing (or avoiding the release of) different greenhouse gases can be evaluated.

As the world has already emitted a considerable part of this target, the budget from today until 2050 has been reduced to 970 Gt CO2eq, excluding land use changes, said the WWF.

"In order to avoid the worst and most dramatic consequences of climate change, governments need to apply the strictest measures to stay within a tight and total long-term global carbon budget," said Singer. "Ultimately, a global carbon budget is equal to a full global cap on emissions." The WWF report, which was based on the research and analysis of leading energy consultancy group ECOFYS, presents different pathways to reduce emissions in line with a global carbon budget. It specifically describes different methodologies that could be applied toward a fair and equitable distribution of the costs and the benefits of the budget. Part of these is for all countries to reduce emissions below business as usual based on their per capita emissions, poverty thresholds and GDP per capita.

WWF, along with other members of the Climate Action Network (an international network of non-government organisations), has urged the adoption of a legally binding mid-term emissions reduction of at least 40 percent by 2020, below the 1990 levels, for developed countries, but that these rich nations, with ‘high’ per emissions per person, must also ‘pay back’ their ‘atmospheric debt.

Reducing greenhouse emissions is equally the responsibility of developing nations. "We need to make investments in low carbon development throughout the developing world," Keya Chatterjee of the WWF in the United States, told IPS. "We can prosper without using fossil fuels – we have the technology — all we need now is the political will," she stressed. "It’s a bad idea to build economic development on bad foundations."

Investment in carbon-reducing technologies is already beginning to happen, especially in countries like Brazil, China and India, according to Shirish Sinha, head of the WWF in India.

In India the big push is to introduce more solar energy to replace old-fashion methods of power generation and to make the country’s power plants more efficient. The Indian government has already commissioned the building of four solar energy terminals in Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Tamil Nadu.

In six major towns in the country — Bangalore, Calcutta, Chennai and Pune — solar energy production integrated into rooftops with solar panels has also begun. Right across India, including Delhi, rooftop solar hot water systems are being introduced to replace electricity.

India’s power plants will also go through a massive programme of improving their efficiency.

"Most Indian generators are very inefficient — under 30 percent — so are big carbon producers," Sinha told IPS. New plants are replacing the old ones, with 40 percent for ‘super critical’ plants and 50 percent for ‘ultra-super critical’. Two pilot projects are being built at Mundar in Gujarat and Sassan in Madhya Pradesh. These two projects are the result of a private enterprise initiative by the major Indian conglomerate Tata.

One area that has received substantial attention recently is the disposal of solid waste. Harnessing methane gas has become a major market, according to Adnan Aliani, head of the sustainable urban development unit at the U.N. office in Bangkok. Methane is worth 21 its value as a greenhouse gas. So capturing untreated waste and refining it is very lucrative. That fetches between 15 and 20 U.S. dollars a tonne of solid matter, which is worth 21 times this as a carbon credit, a permit that allows the holder to emit one tonne of carbon dioxide.

One project in Bangladesh that is reaping the benefits of this scheme is Waste Concern, a non-government organisation promoting waste recycling in the country. It currently treats waste at a Dhaka vegetable and fruit market to produce 130 tonnes of solid compost a day. The group aims to boost this to 700 tonnes in the near future.

"Not only are these investments good for the world as a whole – as they help reduce the carbon emissions globally – but they are hugely profitable ventures for the private enterprises involved," said Chatterjee. European governments are committed to supporting the global carbon budget, according to the European Commission’s Ambassador to the region based in Bangkok, David Lipman. "The EU has already put 15 million U.S. dollars on the table, and that could easily grow to 100 million U.S. dollars if there is a global deal worked out," he told IPS. "The EU understands that global warming is the responsibility of all countries, and we are prepared to show the way."

But while the WWF’s campaign seems to have convinced many that this is the way forward, whether a firm agreement and deal on an equitable carbon budget will be forthcoming, only time will tell – though as WWF poignantly points out, time is running out — if the dramatic effects of climate change are to be stalled or even prevented.

Excerpt:

By Larry Jagan
BANGKOK, Sep 30 2009 (IPS)

The border dispute between two close allies, China and Burma, has now been compounded by concerns over the junta’s future relations with the United States.

The past few weeks have seen a flurry of diplomatic activity between the two states, with Beijing even issuing some unusually forthright criticism of its South-east Asian neighbour.

Unrest on their common border led to a mass exodus of more than 30,000 Chinese refugees in late August, and fears of a renewed civil war in the area have alarmed Beijing. Its officials are also now worried by the Burmese military regime’s interest in developing closer ties with the U.S., which has strong sanctions in place against the junta.

“Beijing has been taken aback by the Burmese junta’s cavalier approach to their normally strong relationship,” said Win Min, a Burmese academic based at Chiang Mai University. “But it is likely to prove to be a hiccup rather than a major shift in relations.”

Last weekend a government-controlled provincial television channel, based in Kunming – the capital of Yunnan province which borders northern Burma – – broadcast a Chinese government announcement advising all Chinese citizens in eastern Burma to return home quickly.

This came on the heels of a formal complaint from China to Burma days earlier over the way Chinese citizens living in a border region had been treated during recent clashes between an ethnic militia and Burmese in August.

In statement issued last week, China’s Foreign Ministry said the recent conflict with the Kokang, in a northeastern Burmese region bordering China, had “harmed the rights and interests of Chinese citizens living there.” The Burmese government should make sure similar incidents do not happen again, the statement added.

Burma insists that peace has been restored to the area in question, and most of the refugees who fled to China had returned. But there are still thousands seeking refuge across the border, not just from the Kokang areas, according to residents living in China along the border with Burma.

Right along the border, from the Kachin areas in the east to the Shan areas in the west, people have fled into China for fear of renewed fighting between other ethnic rebel groups, especially the Kachin and the Wa, two of Burma’s larger armed groups, according to Indian entrepreneurs who travel along this area doing business.

“Everyone fears that the 20-year-old ceasefire agreements have been torn up by the Burmese generals, and a return to fighting is imminent,” said a Kachin student living in the Chinese border town of Ruili.

“At the moment, it does not look as though the Burmese army is about to attack any of the other ethnic rebel groups that have ceasefire agreements, though there is a lot of posturing going on,” said Win Min. “There is no doubt that the regime means to have all the ethnic rebel armies disarm before next year’s elections and become part of the border guards under the control of the Burmese army.”

Earlier this year the junta sought the assistance of the former intelligence chief and prime minister, General Khin Nyunt – who was deposed in Oct. 2004 and is now under house arrest in Rangoon – to help negotiate with these rebels groups, especially the Wa.

Khin Nyunt had masterminded these ceasefire agreements some 20 years ago, and was still trusted by many of the ethnic leaders. He accepted the junta’s request on condition that his men — some 300 military intelligence officers who were jailed in the aftermath of Khin Nyunt’s fall— be freed. The government refused to accept his condition, and turned to the Chinese – who have extremely close relations with the key ethnic groups along the border — the Kachin, Kokang and the Wa. The Chinese reluctance to help angered the Burmese junta’s leaders.

It is now increasingly evident that a significant rift exists between the two countries that could have crucial implications for other countries in the region. It is also likely to impact any approach that the international community may take to encourage the Burmese military regime to introduce real political change.

The implications of this growing divergence could also have significant affects on the border region, as most of the ethnic groups — especially the Kachin, Kokang and Wa — in this area have ceasefire agreements with the Burmese junta. They also have traditionally close ties with the Chinese authorities. Economically and culturally, the area is certainly closer to China than the Burmese regime.

Thousands of Chinese businessmen and workers have migrated into northern Shan state over the last decade seeking employment and economic opportunities. Many of these ethnic leaders go to Chinese hospital across the border for medical treatment and send their children to school in China. The Chinese language and even the Chinese currency — the renminbi — is used throughout the Kokang and Wa areas in northern Shan state.

Anything which forces Beijing to choose between their ethnic brothers inside Burma — the Kokang are ethnically Chinese and the Wa, a Chinese ethnic minority — and the central government will cause the capital immense problems. In the end, it will bring into sharp focus the real nature of the Burma-China axis.

But Beijing is now more worried about Burma’s longer-term allegiance. The junta has been China’s key ally and strategic partner in South-east Asia in the past few years. So the current overtures between Washington and Burma have dismayed the Chinese leaders, who remain suspicious of the U.S. interest in re-engaging with the region and increasing its influence. Beijing sees the region as its backyard, and any competition for influence is far from welcome.

Recently Cambodia and Thailand have moved closer to the US, increasing China’s strategic concerns. Now its rock-solid ally, evidently hoping for better relations with the West, has begun to flirt with Washington.

“China will react with measured nervousness to this unwelcome encroachment into Burma,” Justin Wintle, a British expert on Burma and biographer of opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi, told IPS.

Beijing’s current concerns stem from the unstable basis of their bilateral relationship. “We are not ‘real’ friends – as (we are) with Thailand, for example,” said a senior Chinese government official who spoke to IPS on condition of anonymity. “It’s a Machiavellian relationship: we are in it for what we can get out of it, and they are also in it, for what they can get out of it,” he said.

Thus, it is a relationship that could shift easily, said Chinese diplomats who spoke with IPS. “But it is not likely to become antagonistic anytime soon,” said Win Min. “Burma is far too economically dependent on China for the government to really consider ditching Beijing as its main ally.”

More than 90 percent of direct foreign investment in Burma last year was Chinese. While the western-led sanctions remain in place, that is unlikely to change for some time. The sanctions, of course, now more than ever have rankled with the regime.

“Sanctions are being employed as a political tool against Myanmar (as Burma is official called), and we consider them unjust,” the Burmese prime minister, General Thein Sein, told the U.N. General Assembly in New York late this month.

Undoubtedly Burma’s interest in a dialogue with the U.S. is motivated by the regime’s main concerns — to have sanctions lifted, for international humanitarian and development assistance to flow into the country, and to attract foreign investment.

“Though generals are certainly unhappy about being too dependent on one supporter, and will be trying to balance Chinese influence with better relations with the U.S. as well as other countries — like ASEAN (member states) and India, they will not be looking to cut the umbilical cord with China in the near future,” said Win Min.

China will now watch with growing concern any further U.S. overtures to Burma. But in the end it is Burma that may hold the upper hand. China’s economic, trade and military involvement in Burma gives the junta the upper hand rather than making them more subservient to Beijing. The issue now is how far the junta leaders will go in flexing their muscles.

Excerpt:

By Larry Jagan
BANGKOK, Sep 27 2009 (IPS)

Burma’s monks are silent but seething with anger two years after the brutal state crackdown on their revolution.

Although Rangoon, the South-east Asian state’s former capital, is relatively quiet at the moment, there is widespread simmering discontent that could erupt again at any time into anti-government protests. "While we cannot say anything in public, in the privacy of our own homes, we remember how the army treated the monks two years ago," said Aye Win, a retired school teacher in Rangoon.

"We were shocked. The monks are the most trusted and revered people in our society, so we can never forget how the military treated them with such utter disdain," he added.

The memory of the monks marching and the bloody crackdown is still fresh in many peoples’ minds. "We really feared for them when they took to the streets, but we never believed the generals would attack them so viciously," said Min Thu, a taxi driver in Rangoon.

The events of September 2007 were a traumatic experience for most ordinary Burmese.

The anti-government protests started as small demonstrations in mid-August against rising food and fuel prices organised by the leaders of the ‘88 Generation Students Group’, who had been prominent during the mass pro-democracy demonstrations in August 1988. But these exploded into a major mass protest when the saffron-clad monks took the lead in what became known as the ‘Saffron Revolt’, a moniker coined from the color of their robes. In late September 2007, the military junta began a massive crackdown on the protesters.

"Almost all the monks marching on the streets – it had never happened before," said Bertil Lintner, a Burma expert and author of the recent report, ‘The Resistance of the Monks: Buddhism and Protests in Burma’, issued by the New York-based Human Rights Watch (HRW).

"It was quite a pivotal moment in modern Burmese history when the monks started marching on the streets," David Mathieson, the Thailand-based Burma researcher for HRW, told IPS. "They may be silent now, underground or in exile abroad, but they are still angry and unbowed by the brutal assault against them by the army."

For the monks who have disrobed, and either forced underground or into exile, they remain monks at heart, said Lintner.

Just as in 1988, the military knew no other way to counter mass anti-government peaceful protests, and launched a violent crackdown on them, killing many and arresting thousands throughout the country. At least 120 people were killed in Rangoon alone, the former human rights rapporteur for Burma, Prof Paulo Pinheiro, told IPS shortly after his mission to Burma a few weeks after the crackdown.

More than a thousand monks were detained within weeks of the crackdown in Rangoon, according to HRW. "Hundreds of them were tortured in custody," said Mathieson.

At least 237 monks remain in prison, according to the Assistance Association for Political Prisoners in Burma (AAPPB), a group of former political prisoners based in Thailand.

The monasteries were closed and the novice monks forced to return to their homes. Many have been unable to subsequently go back to their monkhood because the authorities actively prevented them from returning. As a result, many monasteries are empty.

"The Yangon (Rangoon) monasteries have yet to recover from the order given in late September 2007 to disperse their monks to their hometowns," Bejamin Zawacki, Amnesty International’s Thailand-based Burma researcher told IPS. "Many of those monks were arrested along the way, while others were detained once they arrived. Very few have gone back."

In the lead-up to the second anniversary of the Saffron Revolt, there has been increased harassment and intimidation of monks. Sermons of abbots and senior monks are being more closely scrutinised.

Monks returning from abroad have been detained and interrogated, according to Bo Kyi, who heads AAPPB. "This month there has also been a sweep of monasteries, and more than 20 monks were arrested," he said.

The monks remain a potent force in Burma, and the junta fears they may again become an important focal point for future protests.

"The junta doesn’t treat the detained monks with respect. They tortured and abused them when they raided the monasteries, and have continued to mistreat them in the prisons," said Bo Kyi. "Their only thought is that anyone who challenges them is their enemy."

"After I was arrested, they constantly humiliated me," one of the leaders of the monks’ movement, who declined to be identified, told IPS. "First they disrobed me and then they deliberately tried to break me by not allowing me to respect the rules of our monastic order." After being released, he escaped to Thailand.

The monks in my monastery are still angry with the government, he said. Some abbots in Rangoon believe armed struggle may be the only answer to this authoritarian regime.

"I'm being watched all the time. I am considered an organiser. Between noon and 2 p.m., I am allowed to go out of the monastery. But then I'm followed," the Buddhist monk U Manita told HRW recently. "We don't want this junta. And that's what everyone at my monastery thinks as well."

Many analysts and diplomats in Rangoon believe the monk-led protests were an aberration and unlikely to be repeated. Some observers believe they have had an impact on the regime and the international community.

"Regardless of their eventual outcome, many changes within Myanmar (official name of Burma) itself during the past two years can be largely attributed to the Saffron Revolution: the sudden completion of the constitution and announcement of elections, the renewed engagement and confrontation with ceasefire groups, the doubling of political prisoners, and even the trial and the continued detention of (opposition leader) Daw Aung San Suu Kyi," said Zawacki.

The revolt also served to radicalise a new generation of young people, who had not experienced the pro-democracy demonstration 21 years ago. "Young people had given up, and were consciously staying away from politics," Lintner said. But the events of September 2007 changed that.

According to some Rangoon residents, while they showed no interest in politics before, they suddenly were galvanised. "I fear that my children now have been radicalised, and instead of staying out of politics, have been encouraged by the example of the monks, and may do something dangerous," said one resident.

Certainly many young people have begun to realise that political change is necessary for Burma. Several well-educated young Burmese are now planning to form a political party to contest the elections in 2010, according to one of their former teachers.

So while the monks remain a focus for future protests, they still maintain that they are non-political. "They may not be the leaders of an anti-government protest, but they are definitely a catalyst for change," said Mathieson.

"The monks have been a force for change in the past, and because they are viewed by the people as a legitimate source of authority in Myanmar, as opposed to one that has only guns to thank for its power, they remain a potent force," said Zawacki. "This gives hope that the latest Saffron Revolution (in 2007) won’t be the last."

Excerpt:

By Larry Jagan
BANGKOK, Sep 25 2009 (IPS)

The shift in the United States policy towards Burma has been met with mixed reactions, with few believing it will have an impact. But the South-east Asian state’s detained opposition leader has already endorsed Washington’s move to start talks with the reclusive regime.

“Daw Aung San Suu Kyi said that direct engagement is good,” said her lawyer and spokesman for her party, the National League for Democracy, Nyan Win. “She accepts it, but she says that engagement must be with both sides,” he told local journalists in Rangoon.

Earlier, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton revealed Washington’s change in policy towards the junta, and that now the U.S. government would pursue a policy of engagement as well as sanctions to help bring democratic change to Burma.

“Engagement versus sanctions is a false choice in our opinion,” she announced Wednesday on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly. “So, going forward we will be employing both of these tools … to help achieve democratic reform, we will be engaging directly with the Burmese authorities.”

“We want credible, democratic reform, a government that responds to the needs of the Burmese people, the immediate, unconditional release of political prisoners … (and) serious dialogue with the opposition and minority ethnic groups,” Clinton said.

The pro-democracy movement abroad reacted cautiously. “We must warily welcome it,” said a spokesman for the exiled democratic opposition based in Thailand, Zin Linn. “We cannot expect much, but if it helps get Aung San Suu Kyi released, then it is certainly a very good move.”

Inside Burma, most people are more sceptical. “Nothing can budge them (the military junta), they don’t listen to anyone, and they don’t care about anything other than themselves,” a small stall holder in Rangoon, told Inter Press Service.

Most people don’t think it will work, said a Burmese journalist on condition of anonymity. “It’s an OK approach, but it’s too late – what can be done now with elections planned next year? There’s not enough time to change the generals’ minds,” he said.

But for many analysts and diplomats who follow Burmese affair closely, this may be a case of the U.S. trying to have its cake and eat it. “It’s a change of style rather than substance – Mr Obama is doing the same with Pyongyang, Damascus, Havana and Tehran,” said the former British ambassador to Thailand and Vietnam, Derek Tonkin. “The policy is likely to produce better results than Bush’s unilateralism.”

The U.S. has been reviewing its policy towards Burma ever since the new administration took office in January. In fact, state department officials say the review was ordered almost within days of Obama winning the elections. The general conclusion, though, was heavily hinted at as early as February, when Clinton told Indonesian president Susilo Yudhono on a visit to Jakarta that sanctions against Burma had not worked and a more nuanced policy towards it was needed.

The U.S. held high-level talks directly with senior representatives of the Burmese government in Beijing in July 2007, brokered by the Chinese government. A future meeting, tentatively planned for November, was scotched when the junta violently cracked down on the mass anti-government protests in Rangoon led by Buddhist monks.

“This is nothing new – it’s a return to the ‘carrot and stick’ approach of the ‘90s,” said Sein Kyaw Hlaing, an editor of the Burmese dissident news website, ‘Hitpyaing’ or ‘The New Era Journal’. Then it was the World Bank and the U.N. that took the initiative and offered aid and investment incentives in return for political concessions. “It did not work then and it won’t work now,” he said.

There is no doubt that in recent months the Burmese junta has begun to court the West, especially the U.S. The recent high-profile visit of the American senator Jim Webb clearly showed the junta’s interest in engaging Washington. His reception in the capital, Naypyidaw, was on par with that which is strictly reserved for visiting heads of state, according to diplomats based in Rangoon. And his welcome was even more enthusiastic than that given to the U.N. secretary general, Ban Ki-moon, when he visited Burma in July.

Burma’s neighbours and fellow members of the regional grouping ASEAN have also been encouraging the junta to seize the opportunity to reach out to Washington as it reviewed its overall policy and strategy towards the military regime. Singapore, in particular, has been at the forefront of this move. But while the generals may be keen to improve relations with the U.S., they are also keen to have sanctions lifted. As the international economic crisis and credit crunch begins to bite, they are anxious to reduce the impact sanctions have had on the country.

What Washington offers for talks with the regime may yet determine how successful this shift in U.S. policy will be. “Words are not enough,” said Tonkin. “The U.S. needs to make some concrete gesture, like removing sanctions which seriously affect the people, like the embargo on garment exports.”

But it is a start, according to some analysts. The sanctions policy largely failed because it was purely punitive – ratcheted up when the regime did anything unacceptable – cracking down on the monks, arresting more and more political activists, and sentencing Aung San Suu Kyi to another 18 months under house arrest on trumped-up charges – but never finding ways of reducing them.

“With this change in policy, the U.S. will have more leverage, and not just rely on pressure,” Win Min, a Burmese academic at Chiang Mai University, told IPS. “It’s important to be able to talk directly to the junta, and tell them what they expect.”

“Direct engagement is very important, and more effective, I think,” said Nyan Win.

But so far the U.S. does not seem to be suggesting anything practical. State department officials are coy when questioned about what sort of contact and at what level was planned. Suggestions that senior U.S. diplomats, and even Clinton herself, might meet the Burmese prime minister himself when he is in New York have been dismissed. Privately, though, some government officials admit that at the moment anything is possible.

“If we (the U.S.) made any – were to make any adjustments going forward, it would be based on tangible progress by Burma,” a senior U.S. state department official told journalists after the policy change was announced. So far, the most concrete step seems to be the proposed appointment of special envoys by both countries to be responsible for taking the engagement process forward.

The change in the U.S. position has been overwhelmingly welcomed in the region. Singapore foreign minister George Yeo supported the move when he spoke at the U.N. “Singapore sees the army as being part of the problem but also as a necessary part of the solution,” he said. “What is required is a process of national reconciliation.”

For some analysts, the change in the U.S. policy will also give Washington more influence in Asia, which has largely protected Burma from sanctions and international pressure. “With this shift in policy towards talking with the region, the U.S. will find it can rally support around the Burma issue within Asia,” said Win Min. “In the past there has been a major divide between them, largely over the issue of the U.S. sanction policy – which all Asian countries oppose,” believing in a policy of engagement.

Over the past 21 years since the military seized power in a bloody coup, there have been frequent attempts to find ways to get the junta to respect human rights and introduce democratic change. In the past it was the United Nations and Asia that took the initiatives – especially ASEAN and Japan. Most of these have proved to be abject failures because the regime was not interested in engaging the outside world. They were happy with their isolation.

Things have changed now and Burma’s generals realise that they must open up. The U.S.’s policy shift may just be the incentive that helps produce real change in Burma. The first test will be whether the top generals can bite the bullet and free Aung San Suu Kyi in the near future – as that is what would be seen as a real sign of progress.

Excerpt:

By Larry Jagan
BANGKOK, Sep 23 2009 (IPS)

Having released more than 7,000 prisoners in the last few days as part of the preparations for next year’s planned polls, Burma’s military rulers are up to their old tricks, according to Burmese activists and human rights groups.

Most of those released are petty criminals, although around 200 political prisoners are among the freed.

Many analysts believe these releases are intended to increase the credibility of next year’s multi-party elections – the first in 20 years. But activists accuse the junta of releasing political prisoners to deflect international pressure, especially at the United Nations, where the annual general assembly got underway this week. Burma usually comes under intense scrutiny during this meeting.

“Every one of these prisoners is a person, and it is unacceptable that the junta uses them as chips to bargain with and play the international community,” said Thailand-based David Scott Mathieson, the Burma researcher for the Human Rights Watch, a U.S.-based independent organisation.

At least 127 political prisoners have been freed, according to the Assistance Association for Political Prisoners – Burma (AAPPB) in Thailand, which closely monitors the situation inside the junta-ruled South-east Asian state.

So far more than 40 members of Aung San Suu Kyi’s party, the National League for Democracy, have been freed, three of whom were elected as members of parliament in 1990.

Six members of the 88 Generation Students group, who were sentenced to more than 60 years in jail for their alleged part in organising the Buddhist monk-led mass protests two years ago against rising food prices, were also among those released from jail. Four monks arrested after the Saffron Revolt in 2007, four journalists, 13 students and a lawyer were also freed, according to the AAPPB.

“These releases are a showcase to ease international pressure,” Bo Kyi, the head of the AAPPB, told Inter Press Service. “We expect more than 200 to be released within the next few days.”

The government’s announcement last week that exactly 7,114 prisoners were to be released on compassionate grounds came on the eve of the anniversary of the current military rulers ceasing power in a bloody coup on Sep. 18, 1988, and the start of the U.N. annual meeting, to be attended by the Burmese prime minister, General Thein Sein – the highest junta leader to attend the U.N. session in more than 15 years. It is usually the foreign minister and a large team of diplomats who defend the regime during these U.N. proceedings.

“The choice of 7,114 prisoners clearly smacks of the influence of astrologers,” said Bertil Lintner, a writer and Burma specialist based in Thailand. The regime’s leaders are known to consult astrologers to establish the most auspicious dates and times for key events, and number like this.

Many analysts and activists believe this amnesty is intended to deflect criticism of Burma’s human rights’ record at the U.N. meeting and to show the international community that the military regime is cooperating with the U.N.

Some of the political prisoners that have been freed were on the U.N.’s priority list submitted to the junta’s leaders by the U.N. secretary general’s special envoy to Burma, Ibrahim Gambari, earlier this year, Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon also raised this issue with the top general Than Shwe during his failed mission to Burma in July, when the U.N. official was refused permission to meet detained opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi.

At the time, Ban was promised that a substantial number of political prisoners would be released before the elections in 2010.

“Clearly, this is a gesture in response to Ban Ki-moon’s request, made on behalf of the international community during his visit to Myanmar earlier this year,” the Burma researcher for the Britain-based human rights group Amnesty International, Benjamin Zawacki, told IPS. “And as such it is disingenuous and insultingly insufficient.” “These prisoner releases are simply too little, too late” he added. “Too little, because releasing around 120 political prisoners represents less than 5 percent of the more than 2,200 political prisoners who are still languishing in Myanmar’s jails.”

“And too late, because at the current rate of release — every 6 to 12 months — it will be literally decades before the last of the political prisoners are released. By then, of course, the 2010 elections will have long since passed and many of the prisoners will have served their terms.”

Diplomats in Rangoon – Burma’s former capital – believe more political prisoners will be released in the coming months, but that these will be freed in drips and drabs. The junta’s seven-stage roadmap to democracy includes a mass amnesty for political prisoners. This was agreed more than five years ago between the former prime minister, General Khin Nyunt – now under house arrest — and the U.N. envoy at the time, Dato Razali Ismail, according to the former U.N. human rights rapporteur for Burma, Paulo Pinheiro.

Few believe that the regime will honour this promise, though a few more political prisoners may see the light of day. “Technically, there is still time before the elections for this (recent) mass release to be only the first step — with many more to follow in quick succession – but all the signs and signals suggest this will not be the case,” said Zawacki.

“If the SPDC (State Peace and Development Council, as the military regime is officially called) was serious about making the elections free and fair, they would release all political prisoners, including Aung San Suu Kyi,” said Zin Linn, a spokesman for the National Coalition Government for the Union of Burma, the democratically elected Burmese government currently in exile in Thailand. “They may free other activists, but the key opposition leaders will certainly be kept behind bars until after the election.”

There is no doubt that the elections are dominating everything in Burma at the moment – even though the polling date is yet to be announced – according to diplomats and sources within the business community in Rangoon.

The mass release of prisoners may also be in preparation for a possible crackdown on the opposition during the elections. “The junta cannot afford to allow the campaign to be free and fair,” said Lintner.

“They are emptying the jails now to fill them up later – that’s what also happened in 1988, ahead of the mass pro-democracy protests, when thousands and thousands of activists were later locked up,” he said. “The SPDC is still playing games — cracking down and easing pressure when it suits them, and then re-asserting their power when they need to,” said Zin Linn.

It is all part of the military rulers strategy to keep control and prevent social unrest, according to activists and human rights groups.

“Even if a handful of political activists have been free, others are still being arrested,” said Mathieson. “The message is clear: any threat to the 2010 elections will be dealt with harshly.”

Excerpt:

By Larry Jagan
BANGKOK, Aug 11 2009 (IPS)

Aung San Suu Kyi is to spend another 18 months in detention as Burma’s military rulers try to make sure she cannot influence the planned election next year.

The Nobel peace laureate was convicted of violating state security laws, while she was under house arrest. Her crime: to give an uninvited U.S. citizen food and shelter, after he swam across the lake to her home. “A shamefully predictable verdict, and a sentence shamelessly designed to constitute a ‘concession’ to international pressure and concern,” according to Amnesty International’s Bangkok-based Burma researcher.

Already there has been an international outcry, with the Britain’s Prime Minister Gordon Brown calling the verdict a sham. It is “a purely political sentence” designed to prevent her from taking part in next year’s planned elections, he said.

The trial result is likely to intensify the divisions within the international community – especially between the west, which wants tougher sanctions, and Burma’s Asia allies who oppose sanction on principle.

Aung San Suu Kyi was sentenced to three years in jail with hard labour, by the court judges. But immediately after the verdict was read out, Burma’s home minister, Major-General Muang Oo, stood up and announced that the junta had decided to reduce her sentence and allow her to serve the term in her home. In effect she has been given a suspended sentence.

Muang Oo said the government had taken into account the fact that Suu Kyi was the daughter of Burma’s independence hero Aung San, as well as “the need to preserve community peace and tranquillity and prevent any disturbances in the road map to democracy” – a reference to the generals’ plans for the introduction of a guided democracy, including elections next year.

The American intruder, John Yettaw, was jailed for seven years – four with hard labour.

Suu Kyi has already spent more than 14 of the past 20 years in detention. She denied the recent charges, but through her lawyers, said she expected to be convicted.

The pro-democracy campaigner and opposition leader is expected to challenge the verdict in the country’s high court, according to her Burmese lawyers. Aung San Suu Kyi has instructed her defence counsel to exhaust all legal avenues in challenging the regime, according to her American lawyer, Jared Genser.

The guilty verdict was always expected, the apparent lenient sentence more of a surprise. But, head of state Than Shwe’s key objective was always to marginalise her and prevent her from campaigning in next year’s elections.

“They [the military rulers] are frightened of her because they know that if she was allowed to run in the elections, the whole country would vote for her,” Soe Aung, a spokesperson for the exiled Burmese opposition based in Thailand, told IPS. By finding her guilty of a criminal charge and an imposing an 18 month-sentence, they are effectively keeping her out of sight until after the election is held sometime towards the end of next year.

“For a political prisoner, any sentence is unacceptable, and she should be released immediately,” said Benjamin Zawacki, of Amnesty International. “So, 18 months is still too long. But it is long enough for the generals, as simple maths will tell: the 2010 elections can be held as late as 31 December next year and still precede her release by two months,” he said.

But more crucially, according to seasoned Burma watchers like Derek Tonkin, a former British ambassador to both Thailand and Vietnam, this conviction automatically ends any possibility of her having a public political role under the new constitution. “She is ineligible to stand as a candidate under Article 121 (a) of the new Constitution which disqualifies ‘a person serving a prison term, having been convicted by the Court concerned for having committed an offence’ from standing for election,” he told IPS.

Previously she had been ruled out from being President because of her marriage to a foreigner, the renowned British academic, Michael Aris who died of prostate cancer more than ten years ago. The junta inserted a clause in the constitution – approved by a referendum in 2008 – that effectively excluded Suu Kyi from the highest public office. Article 59, ‘Qualifications of the President and Vice-President Article’ says: “The President of the Union himself, parents, spouse, children and their spouses shall not owe allegiance to a foreign country, nor be subject of or citizen of a foreign country.”

Clearly the trial, the verdict and sentence are all part of Than Shwe’s grand plan to introduce a political system that ensures the army retains its hold on power even under a nominally civilian government after the 2010 elections.

Most analysts and diplomats in Burma believe that the electoral law – which will outline the political procedures for the elections – is likely to be revealed in the coming months.

“It’s almost certain to make it mandatory for all political parties to field candidates in next year’s elections,” said Tonkin. “If the NLD [National League for Democracy] does not comply they will certainly be deregistered,” he added.

While their leader remains under house arrest, the NLD would have no alternative but to boycott the elections. So has Than Shwe really succeeded in silencing his long-term opponent and perhaps deflecting international pressure at the same time – at least for the time being. The apparent lenient sentence is certainly an attempt to placate criticism and pressure from their Asian neighbours, especially China.

“It is indeed a concession, for the generals would have certainly preferred – but for international pressure – five years behind prison bars, rather than 18 months behind house walls,” said Zawacki. “But it should not be accepted as such by the U.N. and [the 10 countries of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)] – both of which have called for Suu Kyi’s release over the past several months, but share a costly history of mistaking lateral or even backward movements in Myanmar as progress.”

But already the international community is increasingly divided on how to bring about change in Burma.

The EU, supported by both France and the United Kingdom have already condemned the court decision and threatened tougher sanctions. French President Nicolas Sarkozy said tougher sanctions “should particularly target the resources it profits directly from – wood and ruby mining.” He did also say the oil and gas industry – in which the French company Total is involved – should be exempt.

“The U.N. Security Council must take this opportunity prompted by the extension of Aung San Suu Kyi’s house arrest to adopt a resolution pressing for national reconciliation in Burma and the restoration of genuine democracy,” said Jared Genser, a human rights lawyer and campaigner on pro-democracy leaders behalf. “I also urge the U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon to continue his personal high-level diplomacy with the Burmese junta and especially with its allies in the region, including China, India, and the ASEAN countries,” he told IPS.

The U.N. Security Council is almost certain to discuss Aung San Suu Kyi’s continued detention in the near future. Britain and France are strongly pushing the issue. Britain will assume the chair of the U.N. Security Council in August.

“I also believe that the U.N. Security Council – whose will has been flouted – must also now respond resolutely and impose a world-wide ban on the sale of arms to the regime,” British Prime Minister Gordon Brown said.

Excerpt:

By Larry Jagan
BANGKOK, Jan 19 2009 (IPS)

Hundreds of Rohingya (Burmese Muslim) refugees are feared dead after being pushed back into the sea by Thai authorities, according to human rights activists based in Thailand.

Up to 200 people are missing, while more than 300 others are believed to have died after they were set adrift by Thai soldiers – some with their hands tied behind their backs – in boats without engines, a survivor from one of the boats told IPS.

Thai military authorities have denied these accusations and Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva has promised a full investigation.

In a statement, the Thai foreign ministry said it was “investigating and verifying all the facts and surrounding circumstances.”

The ministry added that while the Thai government was dedicated to protecting its sea borders from all illegal activities, including illegal immigration, “we are committed to maintaining our traditional adherence to humanitarian principles and the protection of human rights”.

The United Nations’ refugee agency has also voiced its concern about the reports and urged the government to investigate the incidents.

“We request the Thai government to take all measures necessary to ensure that the lives of Rohingya are not at risk and they are treated in accordance with humanitarian standards,” said Kitty McKinsey, spokeswoman for the U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees in Bangkok.

Rohingya face harsh treatment and discrimination by Burmese authorities. They are prohibited from travelling outside their native Arakan state and, in September, more than 100 Rohingyas were given six-month prison sentences after they were caught travelling to Rangoon, looking for work.

Vejjajiva told journalists that Thailand would investigate allegations that the Thai navy set hundreds of Rohingya asylum seekers adrift. The country’s defence minister will investigate these accusations and report back to the prime minister as soon as possible, his deputy, Suthep Thaugsuban, said.

“What is needed now, is not a knee-jerk response – to what may be the tip of the iceberg – but a clear policy position and procedures for processing would be migrants and refugees in keeping with accepted international standards,” Sunai Pasuk, a Thai-Burma specialist with the United States – based Human Rights Watch told IPS.

“It’s a real test for the Democrat-led government. Will it follow its high moral stand and promises to protect human rights and international laws, or will it compromise its values in the interest of maintaining good relations with the country’s (Burma’s) top military brass?” Pasuk said.

There are also fears for the safety of some 50 Burmese refugee seekers who were taken into custody by the Thai authorities last week. A boat carrying 46 Rohingya was intercepted off an island in southern Thailand by police, and handed over to local military authorities, according to a source in the area.

These migrants, like the others detained before them, are members of Burma’s ethnic Rohingya minority, who are mostly stateless people living in the west of country, bordering Bangladesh.

Most are Muslims, and have been mercilessly persecuted by the military authorities in Burma. Since the early 1990s, tens of thousands of Rohingya have fled repression and sought asylum and work abroad. Most fled to Bangladesh before heading for a third destination.

In the past few months, thousands of illegal immigrants from Bangladesh and Burma have allegedly been rounded up by Thai soldiers, and transferred to an island off the coast of southern Thailand, near Ranong, before being put into boats without engines and set adrift in the sea.

These expulsions reverse Thailand’s previous policy of allowing Burmese refugees, including Rohingya, to land in on their way to seek work, particularly in Malaysia. Many of those migrants were turned over to human traffickers, or press-ganged into working on building sites in Thailand’s southern beach resorts or put to work as sailors on Thai fishing boats.

“More than a thousand Burmese immigrants – who were held on Koh Sai Daeng [or Red Island] – were cast adrift by the Thai military authorities in the past few weeks, in two separate instances,” a local Burmese resident in Ranong told IPS on condition of anonymity.

“We were tied up and put into a boat without an engine,” Zaw Min, one of the few survivors from a boat carrying 400 refugees, told IPS through an interpreter. “We were then towed into the high seas and set adrift with little water or food.’’

“The food and water ran out within a few days,” said another survivor. “We were starving for nearly two weeks and feared we would never see dry land again.’’

The boat drifted for more than 15 days in the Andaman Seas, before being rescued by Indian coast guards and moved to a relief camp on an Andaman island. “The Thai authorities obviously wanted us to die on the boat,” Zaw Min told IPS.

Only 107 Burmese migrants of that lot survived, according to refugee workers in contact with the group. There were four dead bodies on board when the boat was beached. Most died after attempting to swim ashore in a shark-infested area known for its choppy waters.

Just before the New Year, Thai authorities towed some 600 Burmese migrants out to sea in four boats, according to researchers for the ‘Arakan Project’ which monitors the Rohingya’s movements.

One of these boats ended back at Koh Sai Daeng, where some 80 refugees are still being held, according to local residents. The second boat beached on a small island just off the Indonesian province of Aceh, where nearly 200 Burmese are already in police custody there.

The third boat was rescued by Indian authorities near the Andaman Island, and the 90 refugees on board transferred to hospital for treatment. The fourth boat is still missing and the more than 200 Burmese refugees on board are now feared dead.

Thai authorities dismiss these incidents as fantasy. “We never push them back to the sea,” said one official, Lt. Col. Tara Soranarak, an inspector in the Ranong immigration office. “We have our procedure to deport migrants to their home countries after processing them through the Thai legal system,’’ he added.

But privately, Thai officials have expressed concern that the Rohingya may be headed to join the rebellion in southern Thailand, where insurgents are seeking greater autonomy from Bangkok and even a separate Islamic state.

All the Burmese Muslims who have been detained and cast adrift, originally set off from Cox’s Bazaar, on Bangladesh’s eastern coastline, which is also close to the border with Burma. “All of them paid 10,000 baht (286 US dollars) to traffickers in Bangladesh for the journey to Thailand,” Chris Lewa, who heads the Arakan Project, told IPS.

Thai traffickers charge a further 18,000 to 23,000 baht (515 – 658 dollars) to be transported from Thailand to Malaysia, according to Lewa.

Last year more than 5,000 Burmese refugees fleeing in boats from Bangladesh and Burma were detained by Thai authorities. Many more have successfully managed the dangerous journey to Malaysia and Indonesia.

Excerpt:

By Larry Jagan
BANGKOK, Nov 12 2008 (IPS)

Burma’s military rulers have renewed efforts to eliminate all opposition to their authority in the lead up to planned elections in 2010.

On Tuesday, 14 leading Burmese political activists, including five women from the ‘88 Generation’ students group, were each sentenced to 65-years in jail for their involvement in the monk-led uprising in Burma last year.

These jail terms are only the latest in a series of harsh sentences that Burmese authorities have handed down to artists, activists, bloggers, journalists and lawyers in the past few weeks.

“The Burmese junta is clearly conducting a major crackdown on all dissent in the country,” Zin Linn, a leading Burmese dissident and former political prisoner based in Bangkok, told IPS. “They want to silence all opposition before the planned elections in 2010,” he said.

A military-controlled court, held inside Rangoon’s notorious Insein prison, sentenced the 14 student leaders to long prison sentences for involvement in the August 2007 mass protests against a hike in fuel prices and rising food costs. Most of them had been detained before the brutal crackdown on demonstrators in September that year.

The United Nations says that at least 31 people were killed when troops were sent in to end the ‘Saffron Revolt’ mass demonstrations led by columns of saffron-clad, shaven-headed Buddhist monks. The protests were the biggest challenge to the military since it seized power twenty years ago.

The 14 included Ko Jimmy and his wife, Nilar Thein, who had to abandon her four-month-old daughter when she went into hiding during the September miltary crackdown. Nilar Thein was arrested two months ago after being on the run for more than a year.

The sentences were handed down behind closed doors. Family members and lawyers were barred from the court. “Is this [65 years] all you can do?” one of the activists, Min Zeya reportedly shouted at the judge.

Nine other leaders of the group, including the top three – Min Ko Naing, Ko Ko Gyi and Htay Kyew – were recently sentenced to six months in prison for contempt of court.

They continuously interrupted court proceedings and tried to shout down the judge, according to reports. They refused to accept the court’s authority and insisted they would continue to oppose the judicial system using Gandhian tactics of non-violent, civil disobedience.

Since the contempt of court conviction, the nine have been moved to Maubin prison in the Irrawaddy Delta, west of Rangoon – an area devasted by the cyclone in May.

“We fear they will now face harsh treatment at the hands of the authorities there, because it is more isolated and family visits much more difficult,” Burmese actvist, Khin Omar, who is based in northern town of Chiang Mai told IPS. “The conditions in prison for political prisoners are getting worse and worse,” she warned.

Many of the group’s members, who were at the forefront of the mass pro-democracy demonstrations in 1988 were tortured and given lengthy prison terms after the military coup 20 years ago. The activists resumed political activities after they were freed in November 2004, and have since spearheaded protests against the junta – usually focusing on the country’s deteriorating economy.

Many analysts believe that the junta fears the students even more than the National League for Democracy (NLD), led by detained oppositon leader Aung San Suu Kyi.

The NLD convincingly won the 1990 elections but was never allowed to form a civilian government and Suu Kyi has spent most of the last 20 years under house arrest in her home in Rangoon.

“They think they can handle the NLD, but they know they cannot control the students,” said a western diplomat who deals with Burma. These sentences will leave them in prison well past the election.

The prominent labour rights activist, Su Su Nway, was sentenced to more than 12 years in jail for her political activities. She served nine months in prison more than two years ago for her work to stop forced labour. Ten members of the NLD from Bogalay in the Irrawaddy Delta were also sentenced to between eight and 24 years in prison.

“These sentences are a clear signal to everyone that the regime will not tolerate any opposition in the lead up to the elections in 2010,” Benjamin Zawacki, the Burma officer for the Britain- based human rights organisation, Amnesty International, told IPS.

Tuesday’s sentences follow the arrest ten months ago of Burma’s best-known blogger, Nay Phone Latt, for more than 20 years for publishing a cartoon of the country’s top military leader, Gen. Than Shwe, on his website. His trial was also held behind closed doors in the Insein prison. .

The 28-year-old blogger was a major source of accurate and detailed information on the events of August and September 2007, both inside and outside the country, according to Burmese journalists working abroad. He was given 20 years in jail.

A well-known poet, Saw Wai was also recently sentenced to two years imprisonment for “‘inciting crimes against public tranquillity”. He was arrested in January, after his poem, mocking Than Shwe, entitled “February 14” was published in the Ah Chit [Love] Journal.

The discrepancy between the sentences given to the blogger and the poet for essentially the same crime – denigrating Than Shwe – suggests that the regime is particularly worried about the opposition’s use of technology, especially the Internet.

Reports, pictures and videos that were transmitted through the Internet and mobile phones during the Saffron Revolt, and in the aftermath of Cyclone Nargis, apparently had the generals worried.

“They [the junta] are extremely worried about things they don’t understand and cannot control,” said Zawacki. “The blogger’s sentence reflects the greater level of threat they see in postings on the Internet compared to poetry.”

Even more worrying, before Nay Phone Latt was sentenced, his defense counsel, Aung Thein, and another lawyer Khin Maung Shein were sentenced to four months in prison, in absentia, for contempt of the court. Their only crime, Aung Thein told Burmese journalists, was attempting to defend their clients in court.

More than 15 journalists are also still in detention awaiting trial, according to the Burma Media Association. Most of them are accused of publishing material on conditions in the cyclone-devasted areas, and pointing out inadequacies in the relief effort.

“The sentencing of the 88-Group activists and the further arrests in recent days – of journalists, bloggers and forced labour complainants – is further evidence of the extent to which conditions in this country are deteriorating in terms of basic political freedoms,” a western diplomat based in Rangoon said. “It clearly shows what we can expect in 2010,” he said.

Everyone who is opposed to the regime’s roadmap to democracy and the constitution – foisted on the people through a referendum marked by intimidation and manipulation – is being targeted.

“It’s business as usual,” said Zawacki. “They are using draconian prison sentences to warn people not to stand up to the regime. All that’s changed is their rhetoric – there’s no roadmap to political change,” he said.

Excerpt:

By Larry Jagan
BANGKOK, Oct 8 2008 (IPS)

The battle for Bangkok has entered a new and violent phase, the logical end of which can only be another bout of military rule.

So far, the army chiefs have been insisting that the government handle the situation and that soldiers have no place in politics. But many fear that if there is more violence – of the type seen on Tuesday – the army chief, Anupong Paojinda, may feel compelled to move in.

Three years after the foes of the former premier, Thaksin Shinawatra, took to the streets to oust him and his government, Thailand’s political crisis is no closer to being solved. As country’s political deadlock deepens, analysts and commentators fear that only a military coup can resolve the impasse.

Soldiers are now deployed on the streets of Bangkok to help quell anti-government protests as police failed to disperse anti-government demonstrators who have vowed to stay on the streets until the government resigns.

“We will stay here until we win,” said Surachai, one of the demonstrators gathered here since the start of the protest some ten weeks ago.

“The battle has entered its final phase,” Sondhi Limthongkul, a media mogul and leader of the protest movement, that calls itself the People’s Alliance for Democracy (PAD), told his supporters camped out in the grounds of Government House. “We are on the cusp of victory,’’ he added.

But the Thai press had a more sober assessment of the violent clashes between riot police and PAD demonstrators which left one woman dead and more than four hundred injured – some seriously. ‘’Bloodbath in Bangkok”, screamed the headlines on the front page of the English daily, ‘The Bangkok Post’.

In a separate incident, a man was killed when a car bomb exploded outside the party headquarters of the Chart Thai party which is part of the ruling coalition led by the Peoples Power Party, that replaced Thaksin’s Thai Rak Thai party disbanded by the Constitutional Court early last year.

For weeks the authorities tried to appease or ignore the thousands of demonstrators who have laid siege to Government House. But when the protestors tried to block access to the Parliament, before new Prime Minister Somchai Wongsawat was to make his maiden speech, outlining his party’s policies, the security forces were ordered to clear the legislature complex.

A fierce battle ensued as hundreds of riot police clashed with the demonstrators as they tried to clear a path for the legislators. The security forces fired volleys of teargas and lobbed stun grenades into the crowd, which reacted by hurling stones and firecrackers back at the police.

Several thousand protestors then regrouped and marched to the nearby police headquarters chanting anti-government slogans, while others fought with the police. “It was like a battlefield,” one of the protestors, Nualnoi, told IPS. “The police attacked unarmed civilians without warning – it was lucky it did not get out of hand,” she added.

The PAD has been relatively quiet in the past weeks, as Somchai’s government seemed to seize the initiative with talk of dialogue and compromise. There was a series of exchanges between the government and PAD leaders, according to senior sources in the PPP, often through intermediaries.

A bipartisan constitutional drafting committee was set up to help defuse political tensions. Somchai reportedly agreed to consider the PAD’s call for political change through possible amendments to the 2007 charter which were drawn up under a previous military government and ratified by a referendum more than a year ago.

The PPP government has been considering reviewing the constitution to make it easier for Thaksin to return to political life. He and more than a hundred other senior members of the Thai Rak Thai party were banned from politics for five years when the Constitutional Court disbarred the party last year.

PAD leaders believe that Thai democracy has been undermined by the billionaire Thaksin and his allies. The TRT easily won the last three elections, but through massive electoral fraud and vote-buying, allege anti-government protestors. The PAD is proposing what it calls “new politics” – under which most legislators would be appointed rather than elected.

Ranged against the supporters of Thaksin – who is charged with using his massive mandate from the rural poor to promote his business empire – are grandees drawn from the military, aristocracy, officialdom and the urban middle-class. For legitimacy, the PAD and Limthongkul claim to have the support of Thailand’s venerated monarchy, mainly through a shrine to Queen Sirikit erected on the grounds of Government House.

“Dialogue doesn’t really suit the PAD, as it deprives them of their power,” said Prof. Thitinan Pongsudhirak, political scientist at the Chulalongkorn University. “This latest turn of events was intended to galvanise the movement and were meant to deliberately provoke the authorities.”

The PAD has upped the ante and is going for broke, according to other political analysts. The arrest of two of the PAD leaders in the past few days was the signal for a renewed campaign to topple the government, they say.

Chaiwat Sinsuwong and Chamlong Srimuang were detained on treason charges for their roles in the PAD-led raids on government buildings in August. Chaiwat was arrested last week after a private meeting with opposition leader Kraisak Choohaven at his Bangkok residence.

Chamlong was detained after he left the safety of the government compound surround by protestors to vote in the Bangkok governor’s elections on Sunday. There are many who believe that Chamlong orchestrated his own arrest to fire up PAD protestors whose enthusiasm for the battle has waned in recent weeks.

Thai society has never been so divided. Although the fault lines appear to be geographic – the South and Bangkok against the North and North-East of the country – the main rift is between those who oppose Thaksin and those who support him.

PAD supporters accuse Prime Minister Somchai of being a political proxy for Thaksin, his brother-in-law, who is currently seeking political asylum in Britain.

Similar street violence, last month, triggered a two-week state of emergency in Bangkok, but the army refused to enforce it and the measure was withdrawn after it badly damaged the tourist trade and the Thai economy as a whole.

This fresh outbreak of violence has raised fears that the military may be moving towards another coup. “While it cannot be ruled out, a coup would seem to be a remote option at the moment,” Thitinan told IPS. But many of Thaksin’s supporters believe this indeed is the PAD’s real game plan.

Excerpt:

By Larry Jagan
BANGKOK, Sep 25 2008 (IPS)

Burma’s military leaders have signaled the start of a new political era with the release of 9,002 prisoners, including several key political detainees.

The mass amnesty for the prisoners appeared timed for the anniversary, this week, of last year’s brutal crackdown on the monk-led demonstrations in Rangoon that left hundreds dead and many more injured. This exodus of prisoners from jail is believed to be part of the regime’s preparations for the planned elections in 2010.

In what became known as the ‘Saffron Revolution’ police and soldiers beat and shot protesters on Sep. 26-27, to end two months of anti-government demonstrations, sparked by a dramatic fuel price hike on Aug. 15, 2007.

“The regime never does anything that is not part a bigger game plan,” Win Min, an independent Burmese academic based in Chiang Mai told IPS. “The release of these political prisoners probably signals the start of a process of preparations for the elections planned for two years time. The regime knows it must find ways of controlling the outcome without looking too draconian,” he said.

The elections, which are part of the country’s roadmap to “discipline flourishing democracy,’’ are scheduled to be held in the early part of 2010, according to Burmese military sources. As yet there is no concrete information as to which parties will be allowed to field candidates, and it is unclear whether Aung San Suu Kyi’s party, the National League for Democracy (NLD) will be allowed to field candidates.

But the release of the political prisoners in particular came as a complete surprise, according to diplomats and residents in Rangoon. Among those freed was the country’s longest serving political prisoner, the veteran journalist and political activist, Win Tin. At least four other prominent former legislators from the NLD were also released.

However the party leader, Suu Kyi, remains under house arrest in her Rangoon residence, where she has spent more than 13 of the last 19 years with no sign that she will be freed soon.

“I will be happy only when all political prisoners, including Aung San Suu Kyi are released,” Win Tin told Burmese journalists shortly after his release. Two other members of the NLD were also released along with the five other NLD politicians. One of them, Win Htain, was Suu Kyi’s private assistant before he was detained in 1996 and sentenced to 12 years imprisonment.

“The release of these political activists, particularly those who were very close to Aung San Suu Kyi, must be seen as an olive branch to the pro-democracy leader, on the part of the Burmese leaders,” a Rangoon-based Asian diplomat told IPS. “It may not be an offer of dialogue, but it may represent a softening of the regime’s hardened position towards the NLD and Aung San Suu Kyi.

Win Tin served as a close aide to Suu Kyi and helped found the NLD with her in 1988. He was arrested on Jul 4, 1989 – days before the opposition leader was also detained.

He was initially sentenced to 14 years in prison in a military court for allegedly being a member of the banned Communist Party of Burma. In 1996 he was sentenced to an additional seven years for writing to the United Nations about prison conditions and for writing and circulating anti-government pamphlets in prison in 1996.

A long-time editor, journalist and poet, Win Tin refused to allow prison to silence him. “He would write poems on the walls of his cell with ink made of brick powder and water,” Zin Linn, a former political prisoner and close colleague of Win Tin, told IPS.

Immediately after he was released, Win Tin vowed to continue fighting until Burma was a democratic nation. “I will keep fighting until the emergence of democracy in this country,” he told Burmese journalists gathered outside his house in Rangoon.

The international community has welcomed the releases – especially that of Win Tin. But most analysts and diplomats in Rangoon do not believe this is the start of a mass amnesty for the country’s remaining political prisoners. The Britain-based human rights group, Amnesty International, estimates that there are more than 2,100 political prisoners still languishing in Burma’s jails.

“While the release of U Win Tin and his fellow prisoners is certainly the best news to come out of Myanmar for a long time, unfortunately they represent less than one percent of the political prisoners there,” Benjamin Zawacki, Amnesty International’s Myanmar researcher told IPS from London in a phone interview. “These handful of people should never have been imprisoned in the first place, and there are many, many more still in prison.”

The regime recently announced through state-run media that thousands of prisoners would be released in the run up to the elections because of their good behaviour and to allow them to serve the nation.

The government often releases prisoners to mark important occasions, like Armed Forces day or National Day, but these are usually petty criminals, and sometimes a handful of political prisoners. The current Burmese leader, Gen. Than Shwe has also used the mass release of political prisoners as a way of signifying the start of a new era.

More than 20,000 prisoners, including hundreds of political prisoners, were released over several months in 1992, to mark his becoming the head of state and the start of the constitutional drafting process, with the preparations for the National Convention.

Again in November 2004, after the prime minister and military intelligence chief, General Khin Nyunt was ousted, more than 10,000 prisoners were freed, including many of the ‘88 student generation’ – Min Ko Naing, Ko Ko Gyi and others, who had been in prison for 14 years. They were re-arrested a year ago because of their involvement in last September’s ‘Saffron Revolution’.

In the weeks to come as the regime plans the scheduled elections, there is likely to be many changes in Burma’s political scene. However most of these are likely to be cosmetic. The regime has already begun to describe itself as a transitional authority.

The information minister, Brig. Gen. Kyaw Hsan, told U.N. Special Envoy Ibrahim Gambari, when they met in Rangoon last month, that the Transitional Government would “oppose and wipe out those who attempt to jeopardise or harm the Constitution.”

This can only mean the military authorities are going to continue to ruthlessly suppress dissent. And there is little likelihood of the forthcoming elections being free and fair. “The military will not make the mistake it did in 1990 – allowing a free and fair election [which the NLD convincingly won]”, Win Min told IPS.

Excerpt:

By Larry Jagan
BANGKOK, May 7 2008 (IPS)

Disregarding the disaster caused by Cyclone Nargis, Burma’s military rulers are bent on holding a constitutional referendum on Saturday, said to be designed to enhance the junta’s grip over the country.

Rangoon residents throng the bazaars for food, scarce in the aftermath of Cyclone Nargis. Credit: Mizzima News

According to reports over 70,000 people were killed and 30,000 more gone missing or presumed dead. Local Burmese aid officials believe that the death toll could rise to over a quarter of a million. At least two million people have been left homeless.

"The government&#39s attitude is that the referendum is the top priority and the cyclone is an inconvenience; we believe any government&#39s priority should be the humanitarian response rather than the referendum,’’ the diplomat added.

Undeterred by the desperate conditions facing nearly half of the country’s population concentrated in Rangoon, the country’s commercial centre and former capital, and the Irrawaddy Delta to the east – Burma’s rice bowl – the regime continues to call on the people to endorse the new constitution on Saturday.

"To approve the state constitution is a national duty of the entire people, let us all cast a ‘Yes’ vote in the national interest," state-run newspapers continue to urge all Burmese.

People are also being exhorted by state media to ‘resist foreign intervention’ though it is not clear whether this refers to the poll process or to desperately-needed international cyclone relief.

Paul Risley, spokesman for the United Nations&#39 World Food Programme (WFP) in Bangkok, said Thursday that the junta was yet to give clearance for relief flights to land in Burma. Acording to Risley, flights were still waiting to take off from Dubai, Dhaka and Thailand with high-energy biscuits.

The irony is that very few people have actually seen the draft constitution. In Rangoon, it sells for at least 1,000 kyat, the equivalent of one US dollar, in a country where 80 percent of families live on less than two dollars a day.

The cost varies in other parts of the country – from the equivalent of two dollars a copy in the Mon state, near the border with Thailand, to more than four dollars in the predominantly Muslim areas in Arakan and Rakhine states in the west near Bangladesh, according to Sai Khuensai Jaiyen, director of the Shan Herald Agency, a dissident publication based in northern Thailand.

In fact the government is hoping for a unanimous vote, though that is inconceivable unless the results are rigged – something which most diplomats in Rangoon believe is highly likely. There are no official opinion polls available and public sentiment is hard to gauge.

Rangoon’s taxi drivers – a good weather vane of public opinion – interviewed before the cyclone struck were of one mind: little is going to change by having a new constitution. "What’s the point of voting, they (the military) just order everyone around and don’t care what people think," said Min Thu, a taxi driver in Rangoon. "If they promise to reduce the cost of petrol, then I would certainly vote."

"I’m going to vote ‘yes’ because I’m tired of the top brass running the country, and doing it very badly," said a colonel who wanted to remain anonymous for safety reasons. "It’s time to get them out of government and a new constitution is the only sure way of doing that," he added.

Impoverished farmers in Burma’s once prosperous rice growing areas in the Irrawaddy Delta were delighted with the opportunity to tell the government what they think of them, a western aid worker told IPS on condition of anonymity. "It’s the first opportunity since the 1990 election that they have had to express themselves," she said. "And they see it as a referendum on the military government; so expect a resounding ‘no’ from them."

Of course, after the cyclone destroyed hundreds of villages in the Irrawaddy area, these farmers may no longer have an opportunity to voice their resentment. The vote has been postponed there – and may never happen. "Not only are the tens of thousands dead, the wind and water destroyed local and provincial offices, including the lists of registered voters," said an Asian diplomat. "They will not be able to recover those in the two weeks they have delayed the polls there."

Several opposition Burmese media organisations have been working clandestinely inside the country trying to collect an unofficial survey of electoral opinion on the referendum.

Burma News International (BNI) – an umbrella group of more than ten publications and agencies – which interviewed more than 2,000 voters across the county, before the cycloned struck, produced startling results.

Mu Hlaing Theint, secretary of the BNI, told IPS that a two-page questionnaire, to ensure statistical consistency, was used to compile the results from telephone and face-to-face interviews.

Almost seven out of ten interviewed said they had no idea what was in the constitution. One in four voters had still to make up their minds which way they would vote. So, despite the regime’s intensive propaganda campaign there remains a significant number of undecided voters.

Of those who said they would vote, more than two-thirds said they would vote no. Around one in ten said they intended to vote yes. Soldiers were most likely to vote yes – at a ratio of 2 to 1 – while government employees were almost evenly divided between yes and no votes.

Students, teachers, farmers, journalists and housewives overwhelmingly said they intended to reject the constitution. Housewives, shopkeepers, business people and traders were most undecided about which way to vote – 1 in 3 had yet to make up their minds.

The ‘no’ vote was also strongest in the areas that had large populations of ethnic minorities – Chin, Kachin, Karen, Karenni, Mon and Shan states – where well over 80 percent were going to vote against the constitution.

While these are not scientific results, they do reflect what observers are predicting will happen in these areas. The regime, well aware of the regional variations, has decided not to announce the results at each polling station or even provincial level. The only announcement will come from the equivalent of the electoral commission in the capital Naypidaw.

"This is very different from the 1990 elections, when the election results were made public at each local polling station," Zin Linn, a former political prisoner and now spokesman for the Burmese government-in-exile. "It means they will be able to manipulate the results to their own ends."

There is no doubt though that the real vote is not going to be announced – it has been rigged from the start. The junta has carried out a concerted campaign of harassing and intimidating voters. "The police called on our family last week and told us we had to vote ‘yes’ or we’d go to jail for three years,‘’ a middle-aged mother in Rangoon said over phone, on condition of anonymity.

"The whole process is surreal – to have a referendum where only those who are in favour of the constitution can campaign," former U.N. rapporteur for human rights in Burma Prof. Paulo Pinheiro told IPS.

"A referendum without some basic freedoms – of assembly, political parties and free speech – is a farce. What the Myanmar (Burmese) government calls a process of democratisation is in fact a process of consolidation of an authoritarian regime," Pinheiro added.

Excerpt:

By Larry Jagan
BANGKOK, May 7 2008 (IPS)

Cyclone Nargis – Burma’s worst natural disaster in living memory – has reinforced the image of the military in that country as a force interested solely in perpetuating its grip on power, regardless of costs to the people it claims to protect.

Searching for food in Rangoon after Cyclone Nargis struck. Credit: Mizzima News

The only concession to a people reeling from the devastation caused by the cyclone is a shifting of polling day from May 10, as scheduled, to May 25 in some of the worst affected areas like Rangoon and the Irrawaddy Delta.

In Rangoon, the old capital, people are beginning to vent their anger at the military authorities’ indifferent response to the disaster.

"Where were they (military) when we needed them most – to clear up the mess on the streets, provide shelter and water, and protect us when the storm struck," a Burmese middle-aged housewife told IPS over phone, on condition of anonymity. "It took them a day to crack down on the monks (in September), but four days after the cyclone they’re still nowhere to be seen," she added angrily.

Most people in Rangoon feel the same, according to diplomats and journalists based there, contacted by IPS. "It’s the monks who have been leading the clean-up," said an elderly retired civil servant. "God bless them."

Pictures of soldiers removing fallen trees and clearing roads in Rangoon on the state-run television have further infuriated many in the city. "This is pure propaganda and it’s far from the truth," e-mailed a Burmese journalist, asking not to be identified for fear of the consequences. "Why do foreign broadcasters show them too -Burmese government propaganda is a disgrace enough to journalism," he fumed.

"I saw some soldiers getting onto a truck yesterday," said a 50-year-old resident. "They had no sweat on their shirts, despite what was shown on TV!"

"My wife saw three truckloads of soldiers parked in front of a fallen tree, none of them got down to remove it," he added.

Worse, there is evidence emerging that the military authorities had ample warning of a storm brewing in the Bay of Bengal but chose to ignore, or even suppress, it.

The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) which keeps a close track of geo-climatic events in the Bay of Bengal and releases warnings not only to provinces on the Indian east coast but also to vulnerable littoral countries said it warned Burmese authorities of Cyclone Nargis’ formation and possible approach as early as on Apr. 26.

"We continuously updated authorities in Myanmar (as Burma is officially called) and on Apr. 30 we even provided them a details of the likely route, speed and locations of landfall,’’ IMD director B.P. Yadav told IPS correspondent in New Delhi, Ranjit Devraj.

Burma's meteorology department did post a warning on its official website on Apr. 27 but no effort was made to disseminate information to the people, much less to carry out evacuations along the coastline or from the islands on the Irrawaddy Delta.

By the time state-run media, which has been continuously spewing propaganda and exhorting the public to vote ‘yes’ to Saturday’s constitution referendum, issued its first cyclone alert on Friday afternoon it was too late for the hapless residents of Rangoon.

Most of the city’s residents are reported to be too shocked to do anything other than try to survive and protect their families. On the outskirts of the city, across the river where the poorer working class live, or lived, the flimsily built houses have all been flattened. Everyone in Rangoon is frantically searching for clean water, according to eyewitnesses.

The cyclone, with winds reaching over 200 km per hour, ripped through the commercial centre of Rangoon, leaving it looking like a war zone. Trees were uprooted and roofs of house and buildings were ripped off. The storm blacked out electricity and communications.

The densely populated area to the east of Rangoon, the Irrawaddy Delta, called the rice bowl of Burma, was the hardest hit. The cyclone whipped up tidal waves over two metres high and most of this low-lying land is still flooded.

More than 20 million people are believed to live in this fertile area of the country. Without any prior warning, they were left to the mercy of the furious winds and water surges.

The death toll is set to rise even further, according to aid workers in the country. It could reach quarter of a million people, a Burmese relief worker told IPS. "This is the worst disaster to hit Burma in living memory, it’s our tsunami," he said, asking not to be identified. "We may never know how many people perished."

International aid agencies and the United Nations are still on standby, waiting for the junta to give the green signal to mount relief and rehabilitation efforts. Experienced rapid deployment teams have been on alert and waiting for several days now.

"Our biggest concern is that the aftermath of the cyclone could be more deadly than the storm itself," Richard Horsey, spokesman for the regional U.N. Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (UNOCHA) in Bangkok, told IPS. "The key focus now is getting clean water and medical supplies to the affected areas as quickly as possible to prevent a second wave of deadly epidemics from water-borne diseases."

Planeloads of relief supplies and equipment were reported arriving in Rangoon since Tuesday. Much of that is bilateral assistance from India, Thailand and Japan, though some U.N. aid agencies also managed to land supplies like plastic sheeting for make-shift accommodation, tents, mosquito nets, medical supplies and water purification tablets.

The International Committee for Red Cross has sent medical supplies while the U.N.’s main food aid organisation, the World Food Programme (WFP), has also managed to fly in extra supplies of rice and high-energy biscuits. "We hope to fly in more assistance in the next few days," WFP’s regional spokesman, Paul Risely, told IPS. "But the challenge will be to get this assistance to the affected areas in the Irrawaddy Delta because of road blockages.

The U.N. has begun to distribute food to the homeless in Rangoon. "WFP food assistance has now begun to reach persons who are without shelter or food resources in and around Yangon (Rangoon)," said Chris Kaye, WFP country director. Aid agencies are currently trying to reach the delta, and the government has provided a few helicopters and boats to help the delivery of relief materials.

The government belatedly realised that action is needed to prevent hoarding and price speculation. "We are coordinating and cooperating with businessmen. We appeal to entrepreneurs and businessmen not to cash in the disaster," Burma’s information minister Maj. Gen. Kyaw Hsan told a press conference.

But for most people in Burma this appeal simply added insult to injury, as they blame the government for the skyrocketing prices of staples – this was what gave rise to the massive street protests led by monks last year that were brutally suppressed.

"In Rangoon people feel they have lost everything and have nothing more to lose," said a young activist student. A repeat of September’s anti-price rise protests is increasingly likely, especially if the government continues to disregard the main concerns of the people crippled by the cyclone.

"The military has shown its true colours that it has no concern for the plight of the people," said Win Min, an independent Burmese academic based in Chiang Mai town, Thailand. "This could easily be the final nail in the military’s coffin; it is now no longer ‘if’ but ‘when’,’’ he added.

Excerpt:

By Larry Jagan
BANGKOK, May 5 2008 (IPS)

While Burma’s state-run radio reports that at least 4,000 people have died and another 3,000 gone missing in the cyclone that devastated that country on Saturday, there is little that the international community can do by way of assistance without a formal request from its secretive military rulers.

Communities begin the long process of clearing the streets after Cyclone Nargis. Credit: azmil77/flickr

Some 20,000 homes were destroyed on one island alone, the country’s state media reported after Cyclone Nargis – a Category 3 storm with winds up to 200 kilometres an hour – ripped through coastal Burma early Saturday.

The former capital Rangoon and the Irrawaddy delta to the east were in the eye of the storm. The death toll was expected to climb as Burmese authorities and United Nations officials were unable to contact the islands and low-lying villages in the delta, the country’s rice bowl.

“Everyone is having trouble making a quick and accurate assessment of the damage and the needs, and obviously the government is likely to be facing the same constraints,” Richard Horsey, a spokesman for the regional U.N. Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (UNOCHA) in Bangkok, told IPS.

“Communication lines are down, roads are inaccessible and it will take time to reach many of the small villages which were worst hit,” Horsey said.

In Rangoon, trees were uprooted and strewn all over the roads, making it impossible to drive. Roofs of many houses and buildings were torn off and the debris littered all over the roads, according to eyewitnesses. Hospitals have been badly damaged. Telephone and power lines were cut. “It’s like a war zone,” said a western diplomat who wanted to remain anonymous.

Foreign aid workers are trying to assess the damage and aid needs, but their access and movements are severely restricted by the military authorities.

Any information streaming out of the country comes through the several U.N. agencies that have personnel on the ground in the worst-affected areas. “The most urgent needs are definitely shelter and clean water,” Horsey said. “Plastic sheeting, tents, mosquito nets, cooking equipment and water-purification tablets are urgently needed.”

The Red Cross said its teams are already distributing emergency supplies, including clean water and blankets in the worst-hit Irrawaddy region. But the U.N.’s main rapid response teams are still waiting for approval from the Burmese military government.

There has been regular contact between aid workers in Rangoon and Burmese government officials since the cyclone hit Burma on Saturday and U.N. sources said privately that the government is likely to begin accepting aid and assistance from the international community before long.

“The indications are that the government is receptive to receiving international assistance,” said Horsey. “And we expect to get a clearer indication of that soon.”

The government has set up a disaster response committee in the capital of Naypitdaw under the prime minister, Gen. Thein Sein. He has already been to Rangoon to see the cyclone damage first-hand and state-run television showed footage of soldiers clearing trees from roads, and Thein Sein meeting people sheltering in a Buddhist pagoda.

Most assessments say that the damage is so extensive that the military authorities will not be able to cope. “Whereas the junta is likely to accept equipment and supplies, the top generals will be less keen to allow a whole lot of foreigners running around the county,” said Win Min, an independent Burmese academic who is based in the Thai resort town of Chiang Mai.

Burmese exiles have been calling for international assistance ever since the cyclone struck. “The military regime is ill-prepared to deal with the aftermath of the cyclone,” Naing Aung of the Thailand-based Forum for Democracy in Burma said in a statement published on its website.

Burma has traditionally been loath to admit to needing help from international relief organisations. Authorities refuse to allow U.N. organisations and international aid agencies unfettered access to rural parts of Burma and, over the past year, restrictions on international aid workers has become more rigid than ever.

“The clean-up (by the government) has begun but it will take a very long time to complete,” a Rangoon-based diplomat told IPS. “The damage around town is so extensive.”

According to the Irrawaddy newspaper, published by Burmese exiles in Thailand, food prices have surged after the cyclone struck. An egg now costs around 250 kyat (20 US cents) in Rangoon, or about three times what it cost before Saturday, the paper said.

“The price hikes are crippling,” said a Burmese economist who did not want to be identified. “People are soon going to be reduced to begging. If the government doesn’t begin to act quickly the current frustration will soon boil over into anger and more street protests are almost certain to follow,” he said.

“In Rangoon people feel they have lost everything and have nothing else to lose,” said a young student activist reached over the phone.

In the meantime the state-run media has said that the referendum on a new constitution would go ahead as planned on May 10, despite the cyclone. “The referendum is only a few days away and the people are eagerly looking forward to voting,” the government said in a statement carried by state media.

The charter is part of the junta’s “roadmap to democracy” which would end in multi-party elections in 2010. But the government is not allowing public debate on the constitution. Arguments in favour of the constitution alone are permitted and local media forbidden from reporting any ‘no’ campaign.

“The constitution is intended to entrench the military in power. A referendum without some basic freedoms – of assembly, political parties and free speech – is a farce. What the Myanmar (official name for Burma) government calls a process of democratisation is in fact a process of consolidation of an authoritarian regime,” former U.N. human rights rapporteur on Burma, Prof. Paulo Sergio Pinheiro, told IPS recently.

Excerpt:

By Larry Jagan
BANGKOK, Apr 20 2008 (IPS)

Food prices are continuing to skyrocket throughout Asia, causing many governments to intervene to stabilise domestic rice prices for fear of acute shortages in the future and social unrest.

And as the price of rice skyrockets across the region more and more people are slipping back into poverty.

“The rising food prices across Asia are threatening to undo the economic miracle of the last two decades,” Paul Risely, regional spokesman for the United Nations’ World Food Programme (WFP), told IPS in an interview. “It’s a silent crisis, a silent tsunami that is tearing through the region, with devastating results.”

Rice – the region’s staple – is the main concern. It has increased in price almost every week now since the beginning of the year. Many exporting nations have implemented bans and restrictions on rice exports to dampen the local prices.

Panic buying, rationing and hoarding are increasing alarmingly, fuelled by fears that rice and other foodstuffs may run out soon in many Asian countries, despite repeated government calls for calm. In Bangladesh, and parts of South-east Asia in particular, panic buying of rice has been reported for fear that stocks in the stores and markets will run out .

Aid agencies working with the poor, including the WFP, are increasingly worried that if this situation continues they will soon have to cut back on their food assistance programmes.

“Malnutrition is almost certainly going to rise significantly in many of the poorest parts of Asia,” ActionAid food specialist John Samuel told IPS.

Already the number of people at risk of hunger or starvation has more than doubled, according to the WFP. In Nepal, the number of people who are in danger of starving if food prices remain high has doubled to eight million, or a third of the population, in the last six months.

Throughout Asia there are mounting signs of discontent and fears for the future as rice prices soar.

In Bangladesh, over the past two weeks there have been long queues of people every day at government stores waiting to buy the heavily subsidised five kg packs of rice and other basic commodities, according to reports.

From the Philippines to Pakistan, from China to Indonesia, the fears are the same – food shortages and hunger. “As prices go up in the world market many millions of people across Asia will face food shortages and possible starvation,” said Risely.

In Thailand, cheap government supported packets of rice are on sale, but the major supermarket stores have rationed their sales to three 5 kg bags per person to prevent panic buying, depleting their stocks too quickly.

Thailand’s commerce minister, Mingkuan Sangsuwan, has announced a government sponsored cut of around 10 percent in all retail rice prices from next week after meeting senior executives of major supermarket chains, rice millers and packers associations. The scheme will end in two months time, when the new rice harvest will ensure supply because of higher yields expected from the crop, according to a spokesman for the Thai Rice Millers’ Association.

“It is the poor that get hit the hardest from food-price inflation, simply because food takes up almost all of their incomes,” said Shamika Sirimanne, a development policy expert with the U.N. Economic and Social Committee for Asia and the Pacific based in Bangkok “The biggest burden, of course, is on the women who are responsible for putting food on the table,” she added.

“Inflation will also erode the real wages of the poorer segments of the labour force and those making a living in the informal sector, making it doubly difficult for them to cope because now they have to pay a lot more for their food, but the purchasing power of their salaries has declined, so they have a lot less to spend,” she explained.

It is certainly the urban dwellers in Asia who are suffering most from the latest food price rises, according to WFP’s Risely. ‘’It is this which is making most Asian governments nervous, for they fear that the soaring rice prices will fuel political and social unrest.’’

“The massive food riots in the Haiti capital recently are a wake up call for all Asian governments,” said ActionAid’s Samuel. “If immediate measures like protective price mechanisms are not taken, there is likely to be food protests here too. There is a social crisis looming which will become a major political problem, especially for Asia’s democracies.”

Already in Bangladesh, Indonesia and the Philippines, which will all have elections in the coming year, there are reports of substantial unrest and growing fears that the anger against rising food prices could spill over into the streets soon.

Malaysia’s ruling coalition’s massive setback in the March elections was attributed by post-election surveys to surging prices of fuel and food.

Even in more controlled societies, like China and Vietnam, there have been reports of small-scale demonstrations and strikes against rising food prices and shrinking job opportunities. In China, there have been frequent unreported demonstrations in many main urban centres over the last six months, according to a western diplomat in Beijing who did not want to be identified.

“There is clearly a potential for further worker unrest resulting from the worsening inflation,” said Geoffrey Crothall, a spokesman for the Hong Kong-based China Labour Bulletin, a non-government organisation (NGO) which promotes workers’ rights in China.

Many experts believe the rice crisis was waiting to happen. Annual world rice consumption has been higher than production for more than ten years, according to Vichai Sriprasert, president of Riceland International, a major Thai rice exporter. As a result, international stocks have been steadily depleted. The only answer, according to most experts, is greater investment in agriculture.

“This is a crisis that has been brewing for years,” said Samuel. “Although there has been substantial economic growth right across the region, this has been in the industrial and service sectors, investment in the agriculture has stagnated or even declined in real terms.”

“Unless there is concerted investment in agriculture in Asian countries, food price hikes will become a perennial problem. This includes investment in irrigation, better water management, improved storage facilities for harvested grain, soft-loans to farmers and comprehensive marketing and delivery systems, and land reform,” he said.

Excerpt:

By Larry Jagan
BANGKOK, Apr 1 2008 (IPS)

Rising rice prices are threatening to derail aid programmes run by international agencies while several governments on the continent are taking steps to see that shortages of the staple do not translate into social unrest and food riots.

Rice prices have more than doubled throughout the region within the last two months. In some countries, including Thailand, consumers are stocking up in panic, while many growers are hoarding their stocks in the hope of getting better prices for their grain in the coming months.

International agencies, including the United Nations’ World Food Programme (WFP), are increasingly concerned that food aid may have to be severely reduced if more funds are not found quickly. In many countries the price of rice seems to be rising daily.

In Bangkok, shoppers have begun to buy more than they need for their immediate needs for fear that the supermarkets are going to run out of stocks soon. Niratcha Sunthonsak, a 20-year-old single parent who has to support her two-year-old son and 50-year old mother, told IPS that she is frightened about the future. She is buying up as much as she can every day.

“Rice has more than doubled since the beginning of the year,” she complained. “Everything is more expensive, but my salary has not increased,” she said. “I have hocked my jewellery (with the pawn broker) to buy extra supplies this week. If the price continues like this I don’t what I will do – I already can’t take my son to the dentist or doctor,” she moaned.

Throughout Asia the story is the same. Last week, the Cambodian government urged citizens not to panic buy or hoard rice. Many governments have begun to take precautions and ban exports of rice to cool down the market.

In the past few weeks leading rice exporters, including Egypt, India and Pakistan, have halted almost all exports of rice, at least for the time being, while China and Vietnam have drastically reduced their exports.

“By stabilising your domestic market you are basically exporting the instability abroad,” said Sumitr Boca, a policy officer with the Food and Agriculture Organisation’s regional headquarters in Bangkok.

World stocks of grain are at their lowest for more than 20 years, according to agricultural experts. Rice is at its lowest since 1976.

And there is no end to the crisis in sight. “I don’t think we’ll see (rice) prices fall precipitously any time soon,” said Ted James, the principal economist at the Asian Development Bank in Manila.

But many aid experts blame speculation and media reports about the prospect of further rises for fuelling the regional crisis. U.N. officials and aid workers certainly believe that is part of what is driving the prices up in Thailand. Last week alone rice prices doubled within seven days.

“If people are saying that prices are going up to 1,000 US dollars per tonne you can count on it that there are people who are going to hoard, who are going to sit on their stocks and wait until this is going to happen,” Jack Keulemans, a regional procurement officer for the WFP, told reporters in Bangkok last week. “You will never make such a quick buck as to sit on that stock.”

The Thai Rice Exporters Association has projected that rice prices could top 1,000 dollars per tonne by June, up from between 600 – 700 per tonne currently. The country’s commerce minister Mingkwan Sangsuwan recently urged farmers not to sell paddy immediately, saying it could fetch a higher price in a few months. But this advice was immediately rejected by leading rice growers and exporters.

“Rice trading is facing a crisis due to the absence of supply while the prices are unbelievable, said Chookiat Ophaswongse, president of the Rice Exporters Association. “We should let the price rise according to the (free) market mechanism, but not from speculation.”

In Thailand, the world’s largest rice exporter, millers are stocking up and defaulting on contracts with exporters, according to industry experts.

“Exporters who have stocks are making a lot of money, as millers who have supply contracts are not actually delivering the rice,” said Vichai Sriprasert, president of Riceland International, a major Thai rice exporter. “I believe the losses are considerable for those who don’t have physical control of the rice.”

Farmers though do not appear to be benefiting from the rising prices, according to Prasit Boonchuey, president of the Thai Farmers’ Association, as they had to sell their grain immediately after it was harvested for lack of storage facilities.

The WFP is watching the price rise, especially in Thailand, with alarm. “I have sleepless nights,” Keulemans admitted.

“As prices go up in the world market, many millions of people across Asia will face food shortages and possible starvation,” Paul Risely, WFP’s regional spokesman, told IPS. “Every day we are battling to procure food; and everyday millions of people in Asia are in greater danger of going hungry,” he said.

WFP estimates that at present prices it would take more than another 160 million dollars to maintain current programme commitments.

“There is a potential for a significant humanitarian crisis as a result, we have already seen unrest in some places in the region where rice prices have affected people,” Risely stressed.

If the funds are not forthcoming, WFP will have to reduce the size of the rations it provides, or reduce their frequency, Risley said.

WFP is not alone in facing this pending crisis. Thousands of Burmese refugees, who have fled across the border into Thailand to escape from the military government, are now facing another danger – starvation.

“The rice price is killing us,” said Jack Dunford, head of a consortium of agencies that provide food, shelter and other aid to more than 140,000 ethnic minority refugees, along the border with Thailand. The agency has appealed to its donors for more funds, but already is seriously considering reducing the meagre rations they provide the refugees. “This is a very vulnerable group of people.’’

Risley’s sentiments mirror that of most aid workers and U.N. officials providing support for the poorest people in the region. “They are the ones who are going to suffer most if the rise prices continue to skyrocket,” he said.

Excerpt:

By Larry Jagan
BANGKOK, Mar 30 2008 (IPS)

By promising to hand over power to a civilian government within two years, Burma’s top general has sparked speculation on the future of the junta that has ruled this country since a military coup in 1962.

“As the new constitution has already been drafted, it will be put to a national referendum in forthcoming May, and subsequently multi-party general elections will follow in 2010 in line with the provisions of the constitution,” Gen. Than Shwe told more than 13,000 soldiers, diplomats and other dignitaries assembled at the military parade for Armed Forces Day on Mar. 27.

But Than Shwe failed to announce a date for the ballot or reveal when the public would be allowed to see the final version of the charter, which has taken more than 14 years to draft. Criticising the constitution is illegal and punishable by a maximum of 20 years on jail.

Armed Forces Day, held in the new capital Nay Pyi Daw, commemorates the establishment of the national army in 1945, under the independence hero General Aung San, the assassinated father of detained opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi..

Before addressing the crowd, Than Shwe reviewed the parade standing in the back of a new limousine, especially imported for the occasion.

This is likely to be Than Shwe’s last Army Day as the commander-in-chief of the armed forces, according to Burmese military sources at the ceremony. His health is reportedly deteriorating rapidly. He is often short of breath and increasingly forgetful. He is known to suffer from diabetes and hypertension; his kidneys are failing and he suffers from acute coronary problems.

There was little evidence though of his medical problems during his 15-minute speech, although his voice seemed weaker than usual, according to diplomats who attended the occasion. It was also shorter than usual, which may also reflect the general’s ailments.

Than Shwe’s speech was as hard-line as usual, calling on the soldiers to join hands with the people and crush what he called “internal and external destructive elements trying to sabotage the stability of the state”. He made no reference to the mass anti-government protests led by Buddhist monks last September.

“The Tatmadaw (Burmese military) is on an historic mission, to perform this important national duty of transforming the era and the system of government in a smooth and systematic way,” he concluded.

But underneath this show of unity is the start of a new battle for Burma’s future. This time it is not between the monks and the military, as it was last year, but between two factions in the army.In the past few months a major rift has emerged within Burma’s military government over the country’s political future.

At the centre of the conflict are concerns over who should control the roadmap – Burma’s plans for political change.The confrontation is now beginning to take shape – between those who currently control Burma’s government administration and the country’s economic wealth, and those who now prefer to see themselves as the nation’s guardians and wish to protect the country from unscrupulous officials.

The junta is no longer as cohesive and united as it was, as two major camps have clearly emerged. On one side there are the ministers and some members of the State Peace and Development Council (SPDC) who have major business interests and are associated with Gen Than Shwe’s brainchild, the mass community-based Union Solidarity and Development Association (USDA).On the other side are the top ranking generals – loosely grouped around the second in command, Gen. Maung Aye – who want a professional army and see its main role as protector of the people.They have become increasingly dismayed at the corruption within government and understand that it is undermining the army’s future role in the country.

But the ‘real’ army, as these officers under Gen Maung Aye describe themselves, is going to have to act quickly if it is to remain a force to be reckoned with.The planned referendum for May and the election in two years’ time will radically change the country’s political landscape.The USDA, which is organising both the referendum and the elections, will significantly increase its power and control over the country’s new emerging political process.

Senior members of the army are increasingly resentful of the growing dominance of the USDA and the likely curtailment of the army’s authority after the May referendum. ”It will bring an abrupt end to the army’s absolute power,” said Win Min, an Burmese independent government academic based at Chiang Mai University. Key ministers and members of the SPDC have amassed huge personal fortunes from smuggling and kickbacks. Everyone seems powerless to stop them at present, according to Burmese government sources.

”They are known as ‘the Nazis’ within the top ranks of the army,” according to a Burmese businessman with close links to the military hierarchy. ”They have the money and they have their own militia.”There are many within the army who view these developments with increasing concern. There is mounting resentment and frustration amongst the junior officers in Nay Pyi Daw.

Many of the junior officers are divisional commanders in the late forties and early fifties. These are the army’s ”Young Turks”, who are alarmed at the way in which the USDA is growing in influence at the expense of the army. ”They are watching their unscrupulous colleagues, hiding behind the uniform, building up massive fortunes from corruption in government and they are worried that this tarnishes the image of the army,” said a source in Nay Pyi Daw.

In the meantime there have been no promotions within the army for nearly a year as Than Shwe has continuously postponed the quarterly SPDC meetings for fear of being ousted by a push from those commanders who oppose the power of the USDA.

“The top generals have not met [for the quarterly meeting] for months, since before the August and September protests, so during that time, apart from the appointment of three regional commanders, there have been no promotions,” said Win Min.

“The impact of this will certainly add to the growing frustration amongst some of the commanders who should have already been promoted,” he said.

This resentment is going to continue to simmer. They know that after the referendum in May their position will become increasingly less significant, as ministers and selected military generals move into the USDA and take up civilian roles in the future. At the same time they fear that widespread corruption will also destroy the country and its political stability.

”The real army is the only institution that can bring genuine democracy to the country in the future,” a military man told IPS. ”The new generation of officers represents the real hope for the country.” They would be open to a political dialogue with Aung San Suu Kyi, he insisted, as they see themselves as the real guardians of the country.

In the meantime, as Than Shwe’s health deteriorates, he is increasingly withdrawn and reclusive. His position is now becoming progressively more perilous, despite his carefully planned schemes, according to many specialists on Burma’s military.

“It is not worth risking a crisis when nature may solve it for us legally and peacefully,” Maung Aye recently told some of his close confidantes. But with the referendum only weeks away the army may yet have to move against the corrupt USDA lobby before it’s too late.

Excerpt:

By Larry Jagan
BANGKOK, Nov 11 2007 (IPS)

Tentative talks between Burma’s pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi and the country’s military rulers have begun, raising hopes of a political breakthrough. “If the talks go well, she may be released soon,” a spokesman for her party, the National League for Democracy (NLD), told journalists on the weekend.

Aung San Suu Kyi meets Ibrahim Gambari during the latest visit of the UN envoy to Burma Credit: UNIC

But even more significantly, she was first allowed to meet key members of the NLD for the first time in more than three years.

The breakthrough in the current impasse between the two sides came immediately after the latest visit to Burma by the United Nations Secretary General’s special advisor to Burma, Ibrahim Gambari.

However, diplomats in Rangoon believe the visit was not instrumental in bringing about the new initiatives, but is rather a way for the regime to deflect international pressure to introduce political change, following the September crackdown by the army on peaceful demonstrations led by Buddhist monks.

“It is too early to tell whether the top generals are serious about political dialogue with the opposition or whether, as I fear, they are just using this to buy time while they press on with their own ‘roadmap’, which will effectively exclude Aung San Suu Kyi and her party from politics in the future,” a western diplomat told IPS on condition of anonymity.

The crucial change that Gambari was able to achieve is that, through him, Aung San Suu Kyi has been able to have her views heard. “In the interest of the nation, I stand ready to cooperate with the government in order to make this process of dialogue a success and welcome the necessary good offices role of the U.N. to help facilitate our efforts in this regard,” she said in a letter Gambari made public at the end of his trip.

“I am committed to pursue the path of dialogue constructively and invite the government and all relevant parties to join me in this spirit,” she appealed in the letter.

There was no reference to any precondition for such talks. Immediately after Gambari’s previous visit to Burma at the end of September, the Burmese junta leader Gen. Than Shwe had announced his willingness to meet the opposition leader, provided she was prepared to end “confrontation” and end her support for sanctions and the “utter devastation” of the country.

“These pre-conditions are unacceptable as it is tantamount to admitting guilty to charges which are totally unfounded, just to meet Than Shwe,” a leading NLD member told IPS, but declined to be identified.

Aung San Suu Kyi’s position has always been that everything is negotiable, provided there are genuine political talks between the military regime and the pro-democracy parties. Although she did not spell this out in her letter, it is something which remains the bedrock of her position. She has made clear that she regards Burma’s various ethnic groups as an essential part of any dialogue process.

The two meetings between the labour minister Aung Gyi and Aung San Suu Kyi are part of a new process that could lead to fresh talks between the NLD and the military government. “These are pre-talks rather than the start of a serious dialogue process,” independent Burmese analyst Win Min warned. “But in any negotiation, both sides have to show goodwill – so far that seems to be happening,” he added.

The release of several hundred political prisoners last week and the meeting between the top four NLD leaders and Aung San Suu Kyi are clearly confidence building measures. This was something Gambari stressed should be part of the process when he offered the U.N.’s services to help facilitate dialogue between the two sides, according to U.N. insiders.

But it is not a new idea. Former U.N. envoy Razali Ismail, who resigned from the role in January 2005, put forward a series of confidence building measures when he tried to broker talks between Aung San Suu Kyi and the generals when she was previously under house arrest and before May 2002 when she was released.

Now that there are tentative steps towards resuming contact between Aung San Suu Kyi and representatives of the regime which might lead to substantive talks between them, hopes have been raised that more political prisoners, including Aung San Suu Kyi, will be released soon.

The U.N. is keen to present Gambari’s visit as a success in starting a process that could lead to a genuine political dialogue. “We now have a process going which will lead to substantive dialogue between the government and Daw Aung San Suu Kyi as a key instrument in promoting national reconciliation in an all-inclusive manner,” said a U.N. statement at the end of Gambari’s visit.

Privately, U.N. officials admit it was anything but a success. Gambari remained a virtual prisoner in the new Burmese capital Naypidaw, 400 km north of Rangoon. He spent only a few hours in Rangoon as he entered and exited the country. “The regime kept him there because they feared his presence in Rangoon might spark fresh protests,” a Bangkok-based diplomat who deals with Burma told IPS.

To add insult to injury, Gambari met very few members of the government, and none of the top leaders. “Than Shwe did not want to see Gambari and used his usual delaying tactic – using low-ranking ministers as shields to avoid meeting him,” said Win Min, the Burmese academic based at Chiang Mai University.

Clearly the top generals were not interested in what Gambari had to say. In fact, they made their position crystal clear when information minister Brig.Gen. Kyaw Hsan attacked him in the state-run media after their meeting in Naypidaw early last week. He accused Gambari of being superficial and ignorant of Burmese history and culture; and worse being a stooge of the western powers that wanted to interfere in Burma’s internal affairs.

Kyaw Hsan was particularly upset by the U.N. envoy’s suggestion that they should start three-way talks with Aung San Suu Kyi and have Gambari act as a mediator. “Myanmar (Burma)… will never allow any outside interference to infringe on the sovereignty of the state,” he was quoted as saying on the state-run TV. If Gambari really wanted to help Burma, “he should play a leading role in organising and persuading others to relieve and lift sanction,” he demanded.

This outburst suggests that the sceptics may be right, and the contact and talks with Aung San Suu Kyi are a side-show, intended to buy the regime time.

“While putting energy into the democratisation process, the government has been making efforts for the national reconsolidation,” said the lead story in the ‘New Light of Myanmar’ on Saturday after reporting the meetings between Aung San Suu Kyi and the government minister and her meeting with members of the NLD executive.

There are also other signs that the top generals are not the least interested in the international community’s efforts to encourage democratic change and are intent on introducing a political system that will consolidate the military’s power in the future.

”Than Shwe and his hard line supporters have no intentions of including Aung San Suu Kyi and the NLD in talks about Burma’s political future. They are pressing on with their own road map and are certainly not interested in having any U.N. involvement,” a source close to the Burmese government told IPS on condition of anonymity.

The top general wants to finish drafting the new constitution which effectively legitimises their grasp on political power and have the summit of ASEAN leaders, in Singapore in two weeks’ time, endorse it, he said. Association of South East Asian Nations or ASEAN is a grouping of ten countries – Singapore, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Burma.

A referendum on the new constitution would then be set for early next year, according to a senior Burmese government official.

”The only issue open for discussion with Aung San Suu Kyi, the pro-democracy parties and ethnic groups would be the acceptance of the constitution and support for the planned referendum,” said an Asian diplomat based in Rangoon.

”The hardliners have strengthened their control on power and are in no mood to include Aung San Suu Kyi and the NLD in the process,” Win Min said. But often in the past when there have been talks between the two sides, the regime has had to accept a measure of change.

Excerpt:

By Larry Jagan
BANGKOK, Nov 4 2007 (IPS)

On his second visit to Burma since the brutal crackdown on demonstrators, in September, United Nations special envoy Ibrahim Gambari held talks with senior members of the Burmese military regime. But there are few signs of a breakthrough in encouraging a transition to civilian rule.

Ibrahim Gambari in New Delhi for consultations on Burma Credit: Mizzima

"The government’s announcement that the U.N. resident coordinator Petrie is to be expelled, is clearly a deliberate attempt by the Burmese regime to sabotage Gambari&#39s visit," a western diplomat in Bangkok who deals with Burma told IPS.

And now, although he has held meetings with the top brass of the military in the capital of Naypyitaw – some 400 km north of Rangoon – Gambari has been told to cut short his mission by one day and leave on Wednesday.

In fact, there are clear signals that the generals are not in the least interested in the international community’s efforts to encourage democratic change and are intent on introducing a political system that will consolidate the military’s power in the future.

Burma (also known as Myanmar) has been ruled by the military since 1962. The U.N. and international human rights organisations have charged the regime with widespread and systematic human rights violations, including torture, summary executions and the use of child soldiers.

Before flying to Naypyitaw, Gambari was briefed in Rangoon by Petrie who advised him to concentrate on his primary aims, and not be side-tracked by the regime’s decision to declare him persona non-grata, according to U.N. sources.

Gambari had also discussed his mission with U.N. secretary-general Ban Ki Moon in the Turkish capital of Istanbul on Friday. He was asked to tell Burma’s leaders that the U.N. regards their actions as totally unacceptable, according to U.N. officials.

But Gambari would have found it hard to ignore the junta&#39s accusation that Petrie went beyond his duties by criticising the regime&#39s failure to meet the economic and humanitarian needs of its people, and by saying this was the cause of September&#39s mass pro-democracy protests. "The Senior General and his hard-line supporters have no intentions of including Aung San Suu Kyi and the NLD (National League for Democracy) in talks about Burma’s political future. They are pressing on with their own road map and are not interested in having any U.N. involvement. The latest ploy is intended to sidetrack Gambari, because they are not prepared to make any concessions," he said.

Burma’s military rulers had originally invited the U.N. envoy to return to the country in the latter part of November because that fitted neatly into their plans. They wanted to finish drafting the new constitution which effectively legitimised their grasp on political power, and have the Asian leaders summit, in Singapore in two weeks time, endorse it.

A referendum on the new constitution would then be set for early next year, according to a senior Burmese government official. This would allow the regime to provide the U.N. envoy with a fait accompli which would prevent any concessions being made to Aung San Suu Kyi and the NLD. "The only issue open for discussion then would be whether the pro-democracy parties and ethnic groups would oppose the constitution at the planned referendum," said an Asian diplomat based in Rangoon.

But intense behind-the-scenes diplomatic pressure from Beijing convinced the regime to bring the visit forward. "The Chinese authorities told their ally that if Beijing was to be able to continue to protect them in the U.N. Security Council then they had to show some progress – and an early return visit by Gambari was essential," the Chiang Mai-based Burmese academic Win Min told IPS.

Much is riding on Gambari’s efforts to get the two sides to talk. His visit is critical if there is to be progress in Burma, Singapore and Indonesia’s foreign ministers told journalists at a press conference in Singapore, last week.

"I hope that Myanmar (Burma) can look at the positive examples in many countries and move decisively towards national reconciliation and engage in a serious dialogue with Aung San Syu Kyi, the NLD and all the other parties, and move forward," said Singapore’s foreign minister George Yeo.

"The key here is strengthening Gambari’s hand and giving him a strong set of cards so that he do his good work in Myanmar, be a good mediator, catalyse the process which should bring the country forward," the minister added.

The two foreign ministers – Yeo and Indonesia’s Hassan Wirayuda – both met Gambari last week while he was in Singapore waiting to finalise his visit to Burma.

"While we don’t expect too much to come from it, it does give the junta a way out if they are interested in finding an inclusive solution to their economic and political problems," said a Rangoon-based diplomat.

At this stage it is unclear whether he will be allowed to meet Aung San Suu Kyi on his return to Rangoon, but it is almost certain he will be seeing her at least once, according to U.N. officials in Burma. He will also be meeting other representative of the pro-democracy movement, including executive members of the NLD, and ethnic leaders.

For almost two decades the U.N. has attempted to help bring about national reconciliation in Burma. During that time the junta has made minor concessions, occasionally releasing Aung San Suu Kyi from house arrest and freeing political prisoners. Now the U.N. envoy is desperately trying to strengthen the process.

Gambari’s mission is to promote "democratic measures by the Myanmar government, including the release of all detained students and demonstrators," Ban Ki Moon said last week. "Our goal is that he will facilitate this dialogue between the government and opposition leaders," he added.

But there is little evidence that Gambari is going to be any more successful on this trip than his previous visits to Burma. "The hardliners have strengthened their control on power and are in no mood to include Aung San Suu Kyi and the NLD in the process," Win Min told IPS.

Excerpt:

By Larry Jagan
BANGKOK, Jul 2 2007 (IPS)

Talks between a senior United Nations envoy and Burma’s acting prime minister Thein Sein in Rangoon, last week, may actually see an end to the recruitment of children into the armed forces, say observers.

Following the five-day visit to Burma of U.N. Special Representative for Children and Armed Conflict Radhika Coomaraswamy, Burma’s military leaders agreed to set up a special government post to work with the U.N. on the issue of using child soldiers to quell ethnic rebellions.

"The good news is they agreed to set up a focal point at the ministry of social welfare to engage directly with UNICEF," Coomaraswamy told presspersons. Officials involved in the talks with the government said Burmese leaders were accommodating and were committed to reducing the recruitment of children into the army.

"We feel there is a chance the government may be fairly serious about cooperating – or at least being seen to be – on this issue," a U.N. official told IPS on condition of anonymity. "If nothing else, because it&#39s on the Security Council agenda and because it gives them a chance to discredit the figure of 70,000 child soldiers that is being bandied about.’’

Opposition activists agree that the government’s apparent willingness to cooperate is because they know this issue comes with a U.N. Security Council tag, and the last thing the regime wants is for the U.N. to have another excuse to put Burma back on the Security Council agenda.

The head of the U.N. team in Burma Charles Petrie told IPS that since 2003 the U.N. has been able "to start addressing some very difficult issues" with the military government, including the problem of child soldiers.

But while the use of child soldiers is still common in the Burmese army, there has already been a significant drop in the conscription of children into the army, according to international aid workers working with children in Burma.

"In the past when army recruiters were short of new recruits they would press gang young kids from the few street children’s centres that operate in Rangoon," a former aid worker in Burma Karl Dorning told IPS: "Since the committee was set up and we pointed out that it’s illegal to recruit children under the age of 18, they have left us alone."

Burma has been heavily criticised by human rights groups over the past two decades for recruiting large numbers of child soldiers, some as young as 11.

The United States-based group Human Rights Watch (HRW) estimates that more than 40 percent of the 350,000-strong army may be child soldiers. These youngsters are often kidnapped on their way home from school. They are then brutalised and physically abused during their induction and basic training before being shipped off to fight in the country’s border areas. HRW has also accused some ethnic rebel guerrilla groups of using child soldiers.

During her visit, Coomaraswamy met senior government officials, military commanders, representatives of civil society and affected children from conflict areas, according to U.N. officials.

The envoy has been at pains to dismiss suggestions that her trip was a fact-finding mission. "This was not an investigation mission or a fact-finding mission," she told journalists in Rangoon at the end of her trip last week. "There are various reports with regard to child soldiers and the government gave me their point of view. But the purpose (of this trip) was to set up a monitoring mechanism, which the government has now agreed to."

The next step is for the U.N. agencies on the ground in Burma, especially the U.N. Children’s Fund (UNICEF), to gather information on child soldiers and clarify the real situation before reporting back to the Security Council later this year, according to the special envoy.

The government has become increasingly sensitive about the issue of child soldiers. HRW’s comprehensive report, released in late 2002, provoked an international outcry and stung the junta into doing something about the forcible recruitment of child soldiers.

The military regime set up a committee for the prevention of military recruitment of under-age children in January 2004. It developed a plan of action, which was adopted by the government in October 2004.

But U.N. agencies and diplomats in Rangoon have continued to report the use of child soldiers by the armed forces as well as by rebel groups.

No independent comprehensive assessment of the use of minors by government forces and ethnic rebel armies has been conducted since the setting up of the government committee. But the envoy‘s visit may have helped put a mechanism into place that will be able to do that in the future.

However, the issue of the use of child soldiers by ethnic rebel armies remains more problematic. The envoy met representatives of the United Wa State Army (UWSA) who, apparently, promised to cooperate. But opposition sources believe this is highly unlikely as the induction and training of under-age recruits is a routine practice. Talks with three other groups mentioned by the U.N., the Karen, Karreni and Shan, have no even started because of government sensitivities, Coomaraswamy conceded.

This was the second visit of a senior U.N. official to Burma in under four months. The deputy emergency relief coordinator and assistant secretary-general for humanitarian affairs with the U.N. agency OCHA, Margareta Wahlstrom, visited Burma in early April and is expected to return by September, according to U.N. sources.

Diplomats see these visits as a hopeful sign that the junta is becoming more inclined now to engage the international community than it has been in the last few years. But it may also be the regime trying to split the international community’s concerns about Burma.

Just as the special envoy was relatively upbeat about the government’s offer to work with the U.N. on curtailing child recruitment, the International Committee for the Red Cross (ICRC) released a damning statement about the Burmese military regime for causing "immense suffering" to civilians and prisoners.

The government practice of making thousands of detainees serve as porters for the armed forces exposes them to the dangers of combat and other risks, said the ICRC president Jakob Kellenberger. &#39&#39The practice known as &#39portering&#39 persists today despite numerous representations made by the ICRC. It constitutes a major violation of various provisions of international humanitarian law," he said.

Civilians are also routinely used as porters, arbitrarily arrested and often summarily executed, the ICRC president added.

Burmese soldiers repeatedly commit abuses against men, women and children living in communities affected by armed conflict along the Thai-Burma border. These include large-scale destruction of food supplies and means of production. The armed forces severely restrict the population&#39s freedom of movement in these areas, making it impossible for many villagers to work in their fields. This has significantly affected the local economy, aggravating an already precarious humanitarian situation, according to the ICRC.

"The behaviour and actions of the armed forces have helped create a climate of constant fear among the population and have forced thousands of people to join the ranks of the internally displaced or to flee abroad,’’ Kellenberger said. Aid workers monitoring and providing food and medical care to the internally displaced in eastern Burma estimate that there are already more than half-a-million refugees there.

Excerpt:

By Larry Jagan
BANGKOK, Jun 29 2007 (IPS)

Burma’s top generals have just finished their quarterly meeting in the country’s new capital of Naypidaw. As usual there was no official announcement following the meeting, but there are signs that the regime is about to ditch its roadmap to democracy in favour of a Chinese-style system of government.

"No change seems to be the order of the day from the meeting," says independent Burmese analyst Win Min, based in Chiang Mai, Thailand. "The generals are in a quandary about the future, and they just do not know what to do."

Already the meeting was three months late – the ruling State Peace and Development Council (SPDC) last met in January.

The National Convention (NC), which is drawing up the guidelines for the new constitution, is due to reconvene in the middle of July. The man heading the process, Gen. Thein Sein, has already announced that there will be significant changes incorporated during the NC’s final meeting.

Although the NC is set to resume discussions, there appears to be a gridlock in Burma’s roadmap to democracy – announced by former prime minister Gen. Khin Nyunt in August 2003. Under the proposed plan, the NC would draw up a new constitution; put it to a referendum; and then fresh, free and fair elections would be held to elect a new civilian government.

The NC, which has only met intermittently for more than 14 years, went into another prolonged recess last November.

"So far, step one on the roadmap – drawing up the constitution has been dragged out, giving the distinct impression that the generals are simply playing for time with no intention of introducing a genuine multi-party democracy," said Win Min.

In the past few months it has become clear that the country’s top five generals – all of whom are suffering from different illnesses, including heart problems, prostate cancer, leukaemia and lung cancer – are desperately concerned about the future.

They understand that their grasp on power is being continually weakened by the country’s growing economic problems. And as a result they have been exploring ways to reduce the country’s international isolation and attract foreign investment, according to a senior government official who has recently briefed the top two generals on the outlook for the future.

"The top generals are considering all their options," said a western diplomat based in Bangkok, who has dealt directly with the regime for more than a decade. There are even suggestions that the regime might consider restarting talks with the detained opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi and her party in their search for a new strategy to preserve their power.

Top general Than Shwe told a senior visiting Chinese official in February that he and Aung San Suu Kyi have been writing to each other.

Western diplomats in Rangoon though remain extremely sceptical. "There does not seem to be any percentage in it for the junta, since I believe the regime is quite content with things as they are – they have China, Russia and India in its corner, massive amounts of money are about to flow in from gas, and they have the opposition on its knees," said one diplomat.

In fact, the evidence is that Burma’s military leaders may be about to abandon the roadmap altogether. "Nothing is moving on the political front, and the top two generals – Than Shwe and Maung Aye – now fear the roadmap is really Khin Nyunt’s and not necessarily in the interests of the army as a whole," said a western diplomat who closely follows Burmese affairs from Bangkok.

Certainly the regime has begun to realise that the process of drawing up the new constitution is not without its fair share of problems. Already there is growing friction with the ethnic groups who have ceasefire agreements with Rangoon and are attending the NC. "We’ve been told that if we do not agree to the constitution they want – that is with very limited autonomy for the ethnic minorities – they will simply push it through anyway," a representative of the Kachins told IPS.

As part of the preparation for the planned referendum and elections those ceasefire groups would also be expected to surrender their weapons. Initial attempts recently to get the Kachins to lay down their arms were rejected out of hand, according to ethnic sources.

"It&#39s not clear where things are going on the roadmap now – having pushed it forward with renewed vigour, the regime now appears to have cold feet about moving onto potentially trickier phases," said a western diplomat based in Rangoon. "They seem paralysed. They are facing a number of important challenges, but lack the will or capacity to do anything.’’

While most observers agree that the roadmap is currently stalled, some feel that this may be the prelude to a new era of political activity. "It’s all at an impasse as they look for new strategies – nothing has been decided and I believe all options are still open," said an Asian diplomat based in Rangoon.

A cabinet shakeup seems to be in progress and Thein Sein may soon cease to be acting prime minister. Than Shwe does not want him as premier as he is a loyal supporter of the number two general – Maung Aye. A Than Shwe loyalist, Myint Swe, is now tipped to become the new prime minister.

The cabinet changes will be a prelude to a referendum that will come after the NC completes the constitution. Already the mass, community-based organisation, the Union Solidarity and Development Association, has stepped up welfare work in an effort to garner public support for the government.

China has been advising the junta behind the scenes for some time on their vision of democracy and development. A very senior party advisor has been in Burma for more than two years training the generals in political economy.

Recently the Chinese have been educating the Burmese leaders on their approach to democratic government – and shown them how the National Peoples’ Congress works – an indirectly elected parliament that only meets once a year. It approves the country’s president, prime minister and cabinet that are all nominated by the party.

To ensure that the regime maintains the support of most of the ethnic minorities, the junta may follow the Chinese constitutional model and grant some states and local areas autonomy in name, but be effectively governed by the party.

Excerpt:

By Larry Jagan
BANGKOK, Mar 26 2007 (IPS)

Burma’s military rulers have put the country’s political reform process on hold amid divisions and uncertainty on how to move forward on ‘national reconciliation’ as the junta calls its programme for political change.

Burma’s military rulers have put the country’s political reform process on hold amid divisions and uncertainty on how to move forward on ‘national reconciliation’ as the junta calls its programme for political change.

As the top generals are preoccupied with reorganising the administration and military command structure, under their ailing leader Gen. Than Shwe, the reform process is reported to have ground to a complete halt.

‘’The hardliners, who are resisting any kind of change, have regained the ear of the senior general (Than Shwe), while the pragmatists have gone to ground,” says independent Burmese analyst, Win Min who is based in the Thai border town of Chiang Mai.

“The generals are in no hurry to introduce political reform and feel international pressure has subsided after escaping U.N. Security Council censure earlier this year, when the junta’s main allies, China and Russia, blocked the United States-backed resolution.”

The National Convention, tasked with drawing up the new constitution, has been postponed until the end of the year, according to senior government officials. It was expected to resume its deliberations within the next few weeks.

“The National Convention cannot reconvene until the Senior General’s plans for the future have been implemented,” said Win Min. “They have to be certain that they can control the referendum which will approve the new constitution.”

But the biggest challenge to the regime’s authority may yet come from within Burma as there are increasing signs of dissatisfaction across the country at the generals’ failure to introduce political and economic changes. “It’s a social volcano about to erupt,” a Burmese economist in Rangoon, who asked not to be named, told IPS over telephone. “All it needs is a spark to ignite the fire,” he said.

On top of that Than Shwe’s health is deteriorating dramatically, casting another shadow over plans for political change at least. He is getting increasingly reclusive, hiding away in his palatial mansion in Nay Pyi Taw, some 400 km north of Rangoon. He sees very few people and only comes out to attend major meetings or functions.

Signs of a power struggle between two of Burma’s second tier of generals – Gen. Maung Aye and Gen. Thura Shwe Mann – seem to have settled, for now, on the issue of who would take up the top post if Than Shwe’s health deteriorates further.

A major shakeup within the army and an extensive cabinet reshuffle is expected in the coming months as the regime prepares the ground for the completion of the new constitution and the subsequent referendum to ratify it. Behind the scenes, there still lurks major differences of opinion between the two main camps. The contenders for the top post are strongly divided over how to the move the country forward, and at what speed.

“Maung Aye heads the hardliners who will resist change at all costs preferring to maintain the status quo, whereas the other camp, led by Thura Shwe is interested in exploring new initiatives that could help break the country’s international isolation,” said a senior Burmese political analyst based in Rangoon with close ties to the military.

Maung Aye is now in control of all the day-to-day activities of the government, according to Asian diplomats who are close to the regime. While Thura Shwe may be inclined to be more pragmatic, there is no incentive for him to rock the boat. No one at the top is likely to benefit from change or progress towards political reform at this point, according to analysts in Rangoon. The status quo is by far the best option for everyone, including for Than Shwe.

“Amid the current uncertainty there is no incentive to move forward, everyone has more to lose than gain,” a senior western diplomat in Rangoon told IPS on condition of anonymity. That is particularly true for Thura Shwe, he said. “His best option is certainly to lie low and wait – if he tries to do too much, he could easily find himself isolated and share the same fate of the former prime minister, Gen. Khun Nyunt.” Khin Nyunt was arrested in October 2004, and is currently under house arrest after being sentenced to more than fifty years in jail.

Than Shwe’s brain-child, the National Convention, which has been meeting intermittently since January 1993 drawing up the guidelines for a new constitution, was expected to resume its discussions in within a few weeks for what many analysts expected to be the final session. But Than Shwe is no longer pushing forward on the political roadmap.

Diplomats and visiting European academics were told recently that the reopening of the National Convention has been postponed until later in the year. Information minister Brig.Gen. Kyaw Hsan told visiting German academics it could be October or even November, while foreign minister Nyan Win told diplomats that it would be later this year. But the authorities would not make a public announcement at this time as hostile elements outside the country were trying to sabotage the process.

Both Asian and western diplomats in Rangoon believe the convention is now unlikely to reconvene before November. Many in Rangoon believe this maybe partly because of the senior general’s failing health and his fear that he cannot relinquish any of his power at present as this may put his position and his family’s fortunes at risk.

“While Than Shwe may not be pushing ahead with the roadmap, he is still trying to execute the other part of his master plan,” said a senior military source. “His strategy is to separate the military from government.”

The process of civilianising the administration is being pushed ahead. The military commanders who controlled the local authorities at provincial, district and township level are being replaced with former soldiers. The new administrative chiefs are being drawn from the pool of recently retired middle-ranking military officers. More than a thousand were compulsorily retired earlier this year.

These planned changes are intended to prepare the army for the next phase in the country’s move towards political reform and the introduction of a civilian administration. The changes are part of Than Shwe’s plans to ensure that the draft constitution is approved by the national referendum, and to prepare the ground for fresh elections, expected to be held within the next two years.

“This is all part of Than Shwe’s plans to streamline government administration and strengthen the authorities control over the general population in preparation for a transition to so-called civilian rule and to win the elections held under the new constitution,” Win Min told IPS.

The changes in government and the army will be the most dramatic since the military seized power more than 18 years ago. But they may be too late to stem the growing frustration in the country with the junta’s failure to introduce political reform and improve the economy.

“The Burmese people are suffering as never before,” said a Burmese economist, on condition of anonymity. “Villagers throughout the country are finding it increasingly difficult to feed their families. They are hoarding rice and pulses for the fear for their future survival,” he said.

The recent demonstration of around 30 people in Rangoon – a rare occurrence in Burma since the mass pro-democracy demonstrations of 1988 – is one more symptom of the frustration being felt by the poorer people in the country. The protestors were complaining about deteriorating economic conditions and the sufferings of the people. “Down with Consumer Prices,” and “This is the People’s Cause,” read several of the protestors’ placards.

“We represent 52 million people,” one the protest march’s organisers told a foreign journalist when he asked him who was behind the protest.

At the same time there is a new wave of activism sweeping across Rangoon. Former diplomats, academics, civil servants and even government ministers are meeting regularly to discuss the situation in the country. They are increasingly concerned at the lack of change or progress in Burma.

“Something has to break soon. It just cannot continue like this indefinitely,” said a western diplomat in Rangoon. The soothsayers who usually have the last say in Burma are predicting change this year. “It is the year of the generals up to September; after that it will be the year of the people,” a renowned astrologer in Rangoon told IPS.

Excerpt:

By Larry Jagan
BANGKOK, Mar 25 2007 (IPS)

Burma&#39s military rulers have put the country&#39s political reform process on hold amid divisions and uncertainty on how to move forward on ‘national reconciliation&#39 as the junta calls its programme for political change.

As the top generals are preoccupied with reorganising the administration and military command structure, under their ailing leader Gen. Than Shwe, the reform process is reported to have ground to a complete halt.

‘&#39The hardliners, who are resisting any kind of change, have regained the ear of the senior general (Than Shwe), while the pragmatists have gone to ground," says independent Burmese analyst, Win Min who is based in the Thai border town of Chiang Mai. ‘&#39The generals are in no hurry to introduce political reform and feel international pressure has subsided after escaping U.N. Security Council censure earlier this year, when the junta&#39s main allies, China and Russia, blocked the United States-backed resolution.&#39&#39

The National Convention, tasked with drawing up the new constitution, has been postponed until the end of the year, according to senior government officials. It was expected to resume its deliberations within the next few weeks. "The National Convention cannot reconvene until the Senior General&#39s plans for the future have been implemented," said Win Min. "They have to be certain that they can control the referendum which will approve the new constitution."

But the biggest challenge to the regime&#39s authority may yet come from within Burma as there are increasing signs of dissatisfaction across the country at the generals&#39 failure to introduce political and economic changes. "It&#39s a social volcano about to erupt," a Burmese economist in Rangoon, who asked not to be named, told IPS over telephone. "All it needs is a spark to ignite the fire," he said.

On top of that Than Shwe&#39s health is deteriorating dramatically, casting another shadow over plans for political change at least. He is getting increasingly reclusive, hiding away in his palatial mansion in Nay Pyi Taw, some 400 km north of Rangoon. He sees very few people and only comes out to attend major meetings or functions.

Signs of a power struggle between two of Burma&#39s second tier of generals – Gen. Maung Aye and Gen. Thura Shwe Mann – seem to have settled, for now, on the issue of who would take up the top post if Than Shwe&#39s health deteriorates further.

A major shakeup within the army and an extensive cabinet reshuffle is expected in the coming months as the regime prepares the ground for the completion of the new constitution and the subsequent referendum to ratify it. Behind the scenes, there still lurks major differences of opinion between the two main camps. The contenders for the top post are strongly divided over how to the move the country forward, and at what speed.

"Maung Aye heads the hardliners who will resist change at all costs preferring to maintain the status quo, whereas the other camp, led by Thura Shwe is interested in exploring new initiatives that could help break the country&#39s international isolation," said a senior Burmese political analyst based in Rangoon with close ties to the military.

Maung Aye is now in control of all the day-to-day activities of the government, according to Asian diplomats who are close to the regime. While Thura Shwe may be inclined to be more pragmatic, there is no incentive for him to rock the boat. No one at the top is likely to benefit from change or progress towards political reform at this point, according to analysts in Rangoon. The status quo is by far the best option for everyone, including for Than Shwe.

"Amid the current uncertainty there is no incentive to move forward, everyone has more to lose than gain," a senior western diplomat in Rangoon told IPS on condition of anonymity. That is particularly true for Thura Shwe, he said. "His best option is certainly to lie low and wait – if he tries to do too much, he could easily find himself isolated and share the same fate of the former prime minister, Gen. Khun Nyunt." Khin Nyunt was arrested in October 2004, and is currently under house arrest after being sentenced to more than fifty years in jail.

Than Shwe&#39s brain-child, the National Convention, which has been meeting intermittently since January 1993 drawing up the guidelines for a new constitution, was expected to resume its discussions in within a few weeks for what many analysts expected to be the final session. But Than Shwe is no longer pushing forward on the political roadmap.

Diplomats and visiting European academics were told recently that the reopening of the National Convention has been postponed until later in the year. Information minister Brig.Gen. Kyaw Hsan told visiting German academics it could be October or even November, while foreign minister Nyan Win told diplomats that it would be later this year. But the authorities would not make a public announcement at this time as hostile elements outside the country were trying to sabotage the process.

Both Asian and western diplomats in Rangoon believe the convention is now unlikely to reconvene before November. Many in Rangoon believe this maybe partly because of the senior general&#39s failing health and his fear that he cannot relinquish any of his power at present as this may put his position and his family&#39s fortunes at risk.

"While Than Shwe may not be pushing ahead with the roadmap, he is still trying to execute the other part of his master plan," said a senior military source. "His strategy is to separate the military from government."

The process of civilianising the administration is being pushed ahead. The military commanders who controlled the local authorities at provincial, district and township level are being replaced with former soldiers. The new administrative chiefs are being drawn from the pool of recently retired middle-ranking military officers. More than a thousand were compulsorily retired earlier this year.

These planned changes are intended to prepare the army for the next phase in the country&#39s move towards political reform and the introduction of a civilian administration. The changes are part of Than Shwe&#39s plans to ensure that the draft constitution is approved by the national referendum, and to prepare the ground for fresh elections, expected to be held within the next two years.

"This is all part of Than Shwe&#39s plans to streamline government administration and strengthen the authorities control over the general population in preparation for a transition to so-called civilian rule and to win the elections held under the new constitution," Win Min told IPS.

The changes in government and the army will be the most dramatic since the military seized power more than 18 years ago. But they may be too late to stem the growing frustration in the country with the junta&#39s failure to introduce political reform and improve the economy. "The Burmese people are suffering as never before," said a Burmese economist, on condition of anonymity. "Villagers throughout the country are finding it increasingly difficult to feed their families. They are hoarding rice and pulses for the fear for their future survival," he said.

The recent demonstration of around 30 people in Rangoon – a rare occurrence in Burma since the mass pro-democracy demonstrations of 1988 – is one more symptom of the frustration being felt by the poorer people in the country. The protestors were complaining about deteriorating economic conditions and the sufferings of the people. "Down with Consumer Prices," and "This is the People&#39s Cause," read several of the protestors&#39 placards.

"We represent 52 million people," one the protest march&#39s organisers told a foreign journalist when he asked him who was behind the protest.

At the same time there is a new wave of activism sweeping across Rangoon. Former diplomats, academics, civil servants and even government ministers are meeting regularly to discuss the situation in the country. They are increasingly concerned at the lack of change or progress in Burma.

"Something has to break soon. It just cannot continue like this indefinitely," said a western diplomat in Rangoon. The soothsayers who usually have the last say in Burma are predicting change this year. "It is the year of the generals up to September; after that it will be the year of the people," a renowned astrologer in Rangoon told IPS.

Excerpt:

By Larry Jagan
BANGKOK, Sep 20 2006 (IPS)

Ending months of political deadlock, Thailand’s army moved dramatically to oust caretaker Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra in a bloodless coup, led by army chief General Sonthi Boonyaratklin.

Ending months of political deadlock, Thailand’s army moved dramatically to oust caretaker Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra in a bloodless coup, led by army chief Gen. Sonthi Boonyaratklin.

The army swiftly and effectively took control of the country while the premier was abroad, attending the United Nations General Assembly in New York. Several battalions of soldiers stationed around Bangkok and loyal to the army chief were quickly mobilised and moved into key positions around the city, late Tuesday night. Tanks and heavily armed soldiers took up positions at strategic points in the city, including government house, the parliament building and the palace.

The army also took over the country’s radio and television stations, cancelling all transmissions and forcing them to play sombre military music and show pictures of King Bhumibol. This was the first sign that Thailand was going through another dramatic political episode, another coup. International broadcasters, including the BBC and CNN had their transmissions blacked out.

Sonthi systematically sacked the prime minister, dismissed parliament, suspended the constitution and declared martial law. He removed the prime minister to prevent the country from disintegrating, he told the nation in a televised broadcast later.

Not a shot was fired during the operation. “It was a peculiarly Thai affair – a silk revolution,” a source close to the army said on condition of anonymity. Analysts believe the move was orchestrated by senior officials close to the palace.

“The army generals would not have moved so decisively if they did not think they had the approval of the king,” former senator Kraisak Choonhaven told IPS in an interview. But many political analysts believe it is unlikely that the king actually sanctioned the coup. He has remained above the country’s political bickering and repeatedly insisted that Thailand’s political stalemate had to be resolved constitutionally.

“We have seized power because the caretaker prime minister has caused an unprecedented rift in society, widespread corruption and nepotism, and interfered with the country’s independent agencies, crippling them so that they could not longer function properly,” Sonthi said in his address.

Now an interim civilian administration is to be set up within the next two weeks to run the country until fresh elections are held in about a year’s time. A programme of comprehensive political reform is to be initiated and the constitution redrafted to strengthen the country’s democratic institutions, the general promised.

A day after the coup, Bangkok is calm and shows little sign of the momentous events of the night before. Small groups of soldiers are patrolling around the city to ensure there is no breakdown of law and order. Shops were open and public transport was running normally. But schools, banks and the stock exchange were closed on the orders of Sonthi, who declared the day a national holiday.

The mood on the streets of Bangkok was subdued, while the implications of the coup were being quietly discussed, even by the city’s hawkers.

Thaksin remains popular with the poor who feel he has tried to improve their lot with a 30 baht (less than one U.S. dollar) health scheme, the injection of funds into the villages and the suspension of farmers’ debts. But even they were reluctant to continue to champion him in the face of Sonthi’s decisive move.

“Perhaps he has gone too far and was starting to be a threat to the country’s stability,” said Rung, a young, single mother who was full of praise for Thaksin’s health care scheme.

Many of the rank-and-file opponents of Thaksin were clearly jubilant with the new political twist. “It’s very exciting, someone had to do something to end this impasse,” said computer science student from Chulalongkorn University, Somchai (second name withheld). “General Sonthi has done the right thing,” he said.

“I never support coups, but this one was almost inevitable,” said former senator Kraisak, whose father Chatichai Choonavan was toppled as prime minister in Thailand’s last coup in 1991. “It’s one step back to allow two steps forward,” he mused.

Many of the students at the country’s prestigious Chulalongkorn University were of the same mind. “It may have been an authoritarian, unconstitutional and undemocratic move, but Thailand will emerge stronger out of this and its democratic institutions will strengthen in the long run,” said Wipat, an economics student.

Almost all Thais hope that this coup will be unlike any other coup, in a country that has already gone through 17 of them. “This coup will be different from all previous coups as something good will emerge from it,” said political science student Kittipong.

The circumstances around this coup are certainly exceptional. Although the army chief moved against the democratically elected government, it was on the basis that Thaksin had become a dictator and was ruining the country through encouraging and promoting rampant corruption.

For months it has been clear that the political turmoil in Thailand was fundamentally about democracy. Thaksin had interpreted the political movement against him as a threat to democracy. “Key democratic institutions, such as elections and the observance of constitutional limitations on government, have been repeatedly undermined,” he wrote to U.S. President George W. Bush several months ago, explaining Thailand’s political problems.

His critics, of course, argue that since his original electoral landslide victory, five years ago, he has usurped democracy and the constitution and left those who oppose him with no alternative but to take to the streets to vent their feelings and protect the constitution.

“It is not true that Thaksin represents genuine democracy and overthrowing him in the street is unacceptable,” said senior political scientist at Chulalongkorn University, Titinan Pongsudhirak. “Just because you have someone coming along and winning elections is not tantamount to having democratic rule,” he said.

Thaksin has used his two major election victories – in 2001 and again in 2005 – as a rationale for ruling without regard for the opposition and sweeping aside any criticism. “He has become a populist dictator using the 19 million votes he got as justification for his absolute rule,” Titinan told IPS before the coup. “He is far more authoritarian than any previous military dictatorships before him,” he said.

Most of Thailand’s academics and intellectuals have insisted in recent months that although undeniably popular with segments of the Thai electorate, Thaksin posed a major threat to country’s democratic system.

“Thaksin says he plays by the rules, but he is the one who broke the rules most of the time,” said Kavi Chongkittavorn, a senior editor with the English language daily newspaper, The Nation. “I think democracy means a lot of things – not just votes. It means checks and balances, it means transparency, it means how you use powers, it means you are accountable as a leader,” he said.

While the army chief has intervened, it remains to be seen whether the military can help strengthen Thailand’s democratic institutions. What is certain is that Thailand’s economic development and stability now depends on a speedy return to democratic and civilian rule.

Excerpt:

By Larry Jagan
BANGKOK, Sep 20 2006 (IPS)

Ending months of political deadlock, Thailand’s army moved dramatically to oust caretaker Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra in a bloodless coup, led by army chief Gen. Sonthi Boonyaratklin.

The army swiftly and effectively took control of the country while the premier was abroad, attending the United Nations General Assembly in New York. Several battalions of soldiers stationed around Bangkok and loyal to the army chief were quickly mobilised and moved into key positions around the city, late Tuesday night. Tanks and heavily armed soldiers took up positions at strategic points in the city, including government house, the parliament building and the palace.

The army also took over the country’s radio and television stations, cancelling all transmissions and forcing them to play sombre military music and show pictures of King Bhumibol. This was the first sign that Thailand was going through another dramatic political episode, another coup. International broadcasters, including the BBC and CNN had their transmissions blacked out.

Sonthi systematically sacked the prime minister, dismissed parliament, suspended the constitution and declared martial law. He removed the prime minister to prevent the country from disintegrating, he told the nation in a televised broadcast later.

Not a shot was fired during the operation. “It was a peculiarly Thai affair – a silk revolution,” a source close to the army said on condition of anonymity. Analysts believe the move was orchestrated by senior officials close to the palace.

“The army generals would not have moved so decisively if they did not think they had the approval of the king,” former senator Kraisak Choonhaven told IPS in an interview. But many political analysts believe it is unlikely that the king actually sanctioned the coup. He has remained above the country’s political bickering and repeatedly insisted that Thailand’s political stalemate had to be resolved constitutionally.

“We have seized power because the caretaker prime minister has caused an unprecedented rift in society, widespread corruption and nepotism, and interfered with the country’s independent agencies, crippling them so that they could not longer function properly,” Sonthi said in his address.

Now an interim civilian administration is to be set up within the next two weeks to run the country until fresh elections are held in about a year’s time. A programme of comprehensive political reform is to be initiated and the constitution redrafted to strengthen the country’s democratic institutions, the general promised.

A day after the coup, Bangkok is calm and shows little sign of the momentous events of the night before. Small groups of soldiers are patrolling around the city to ensure there is no breakdown of law and order. Shops were open and public transport was running normally. But schools, banks and the stock exchange were closed on the orders of Sonthi, who declared the day a national holiday.

The mood on the streets of Bangkok was subdued, while the implications of the coup were being quietly discussed, even by the city’s hawkers.

Thaksin remains popular with the poor who feel he has tried to improve their lot with a 30 baht (less than one U.S. dollar) health scheme, the injection of funds into the villages and the suspension of farmers’ debts. But even they were reluctant to continue to champion him in the face of Sonthi’s decisive move.

“Perhaps he has gone too far and was starting to be a threat to the country’s stability,” said Rung, a young, single mother who was full of praise for Thaksin’s health care scheme.

Many of the rank-and-file opponents of Thaksin were clearly jubilant with the new political twist. “It’s very exciting, someone had to do something to end this impasse,” said computer science student from Chulalongkorn University, Somchai (second name withheld). “General Sonthi has done the right thing,” he said.

“I never support coups, but this one was almost inevitable,” said former senator Kraisak, whose father Chatichai Choonavan was toppled as prime minister in Thailand’s last coup in 1991. “It’s one step back to allow two steps forward,” he mused.

Many of the students at the country’s prestigious Chulalongkorn University were of the same mind. “It may have been an authoritarian, unconstitutional and undemocratic move, but Thailand will emerge stronger out of this and its democratic institutions will strengthen in the long run,” said Wipat, an economics student.

Almost all Thais hope that this coup will be unlike any other coup, in a country that has already gone through 17 of them. “This coup will be different from all previous coups as something good will emerge from it,” said political science student Kittipong.

The circumstances around this coup are certainly exceptional. Although the army chief moved against the democratically elected government, it was on the basis that Thaksin had become a dictator and was ruining the country through encouraging and promoting rampant corruption.

For months it has been clear that the political turmoil in Thailand was fundamentally about democracy. Thaksin had interpreted the political movement against him as a threat to democracy. “Key democratic institutions, such as elections and the observance of constitutional limitations on government, have been repeatedly undermined,” he wrote to U.S. President George W. Bush several months ago, explaining Thailand’s political problems.

His critics, of course, argue that since his original electoral landslide victory, five years ago, he has usurped democracy and the constitution and left those who oppose him with no alternative but to take to the streets to vent their feelings and protect the constitution.

“It is not true that Thaksin represents genuine democracy and overthrowing him in the street is unacceptable,” said senior political scientist at Chulalongkorn University, Titinan Pongsudhirak. “Just because you have someone coming along and winning elections is not tantamount to having democratic rule,” he said.

Thaksin has used his two major election victories – in 2001 and again in 2005 – as a rationale for ruling without regard for the opposition and sweeping aside any criticism. “He has become a populist dictator using the 19 million votes he got as justification for his absolute rule,” Titinan told IPS before the coup. “He is far more authoritarian than any previous military dictatorships before him,” he said.

Most of Thailand’s academics and intellectuals have insisted in recent months that although undeniably popular with segments of the Thai electorate, Thaksin posed a major threat to country’s democratic system.

“Thaksin says he plays by the rules, but he is the one who broke the rules most of the time,” said Kavi Chongkittavorn, a senior editor with the English language daily newspaper, The Nation. “I think democracy means a lot of things – not just votes. It means checks and balances, it means transparency, it means how you use powers, it means you are accountable as a leader,” he said.

While the army chief has intervened, it remains to be seen whether the military can help strengthen Thailand’s democratic institutions. What is certain is that Thailand’s economic development and stability now depends on a speedy return to democratic and civilian rule.

Excerpt:

By Larry Jagan
BANGKOK, Jul 3 2006 (IPS)

Burma’s military rulers have begun a massive shake-up with eight deputy ministers and a supreme court judge already relieved of their posts. This second revamp in the last few months is part of a major overhaul of the army and government, according to diplomatic sources in Rangoon.

Further cabinet changes are also believed to be in the pipeline and may include top military ruler Gen. Than Shwe standing down as the junta leader and passing power onto the next generation of generals.

It is the start of a fresh attempt to civilianise Burma’s military rule, ahead of the political change under a new constitution. To strengthen the regime’s ability to survive, Than Shwe is also planning significant policy changes, including a new programme of economic liberalisation and a strengthening of the country’s private sector.

These planned changes coincide with the regime’s new crackdown on corruption. Several top customs officials, including the department’s director general, have been detained and are expected to be charged with corruption in the near future.

The investigations are continuing and have been broadened to include several other economic ministries and even the Central Bank, according to diplomatic sources in Rangoon.

In the cabinet reshuffle announced in May, two deputy information ministers, Thein Sein and Brig. Gen. Aung Thein, lost their jobs. Deputy defence minister Maj. Gen. Khin Maung Win, deputy mines minister Myint Thein, deputy culture minister Brig. Gen. Soe Win Maung, deputy minister of border areas and national races and development affairs Brig. Gen. Than Tun, deputy minister of industry Thein Tun, and deputy transport minister Pe Thein were allowed to retire.

Replacements are yet to be announced but sources in Rangoon say they are likely to be drawn from among the new graduates of the National Defence College.

“Some of the new ministers are expected to be loyal to the second top general, Maung Aye,” an independent Burma analyst Win Min, based in the northern Thai city of Chiang Mai, told IPS.

This may be the senior general’s way of keeping Maung Aye within the system, while reducing his influence, according to a senior Asian diplomat who knows the top generals well. Than Shwe’s planned reorganisation of the government is intended to help prepare for the next phase of the political transition, while further reducing the influence of his deputy Maung Aye.

Many of the regional military commanders were moved after the last quarterly meeting of the ruling body, the State Peace and Development Council (SPDC). The meeting was held in the new capital in Pyinmana. Now that the shifting of the war office and the government administration has been completed, the top general is turning his attention to the country’s political future.

The national reconciliation process, as the regime calls its plans for political reform, has been substantially delayed, partly because of the move to the new capital and as a result of the arrest of the former intelligence chief and prime minister Gen. Khin Nyunt more than eighteen months ago. Hundreds of his supporters were also purged and many sentenced to hundreds of years in jail. Since then the regime’s leader has been primarily concerned to consolidate his power within the army and the country’s administration.

Than Shwe now feels comfortable enough to proceed with his plans for Burma’s political future. The National Convention, which is drafting a new constitution, is scheduled to resume its deliberations later this year. Burmese foreign minister Nyan Win told his South-east Asian counterparts at their retreat in Bali in April that the constitution would take another two years to complete.

Drafting a new constitution is the first step in the government’s democracy roadmap. According to regime’s plans, this will then be put to a referendum and fresh elections held some time after that.

Now that Than Shwe wants to restart the national reconciliation process, the regime’s main concern is to prepare the ground for the next steps. This means immobilising or eliminating all potential opposition, including the pro-democracy parties and the ethnic rebel groups, most of whom have ceasefire pacts with Rangoon.

Than Shwe’s first task though, is to revamp the army command and shake-up the government. These changes are currently in the pipeline and are the most dramatic since the army seized power nearly eighteen years ago.

Burma’s top general is reportedly considering give up at least one of the three key posts he currently holds – chairman of the SPDC, supreme commander of the army and defence minister. “We expect Than Shwe to relinquish his position as defence minister as part of the forthcoming reshuffle,” said an Asian diplomat based in Rangoon.

Than Shwe is also expected to step down as the commander-in-chief of the army by the end of the year. The country’s third most powerful military leader, Gen. Thura Shwe Mann is expected to take over at the helm of Burma’s military machine.

“Gen. Maung Aye is likely to remain as the deputy chairman of the SPDC – a largely ceremonial post – but relinquish his position as deputy commander-in-chief of the military,” said a senior government source.

The SPDC itself is expected to be renamed the State Democracy and Development Council within the next few months, with both generals heading the new ruling council.

Since the army seized power, the military rulers have changed the junta’s formal name, then the State Law and Order Restoration Council (SLORC) to the SPDC in 1997. Nine years later it would not be a surprise if it changed the name again. Nine is regarded as an auspicious number in Burmese astrology.

The idea would be that the ruling council would remain the highest political authority overseeing a military council and a civilian cabinet. The military command would be replaced by a military council – led by Gen. Thura Swe Mann, but with Than Shwe on it. “The idea has probably been adopted from the Chinese, and Than Shwe plans to follow Deng Xiaoping’s example after he resigned his official government and party posts,” analyst Win Min said.

The cabinet is now being fully civilised – with ministers losing their military rank when they are appointed to their government posts. Prime Minister Soe Win has also had to relinquish his military post and stripes recently.

Beijing believes Than Shwe will stand down this year so that he can become the civilian president under the new constitution. “He wants to be president for life,” a senior military source close to him said.

Although the new generation of generals may take responsibility for the day-to-day running of the country and execute the seven-stage roadmap to democracy, Than Shwe will remain the power behind the throne. “He is replicating his usual approach of pitting potential junior rivals against each other to create a balance of power,” says Win Min.

“This is the new generation of military leaders who are being readied to take over power,” say senior Indian diplomats who deal with Burma. They warn that this group of generals lack the manners and sophistication of their superiors.

”These men are uncouth, uneducated and only know how to bark orders,” said an Indian diplomat who was based in Rangoon and knows the new generals well.

Excerpt:

By Larry Jagan
BANGKOK, May 10 2006 (IPS)

Incarcerated political leader Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy (NLD) is facing dissolution, with Burma’s military rulers compelling mass resignations from the party by threatening to ban it as a ‘terrorist’ organisation.

”NLD members are resigning en masse because of coercion by local authorities, and it is not true – as the government says – that they are resigning of their own will,” party spokesman, Nyan Win has been quoted as saying. NLD leaders expect more resignations to follow in the coming weeks.

”The authorities are putting immense pressure on NLD members to resign,” according to a senior party member who asked to remain anonymous. “It is one of the key ways the SPDC (State Peace and Development Council) is trying to weaken our party.”

This strategy is part of the junta’s longer-term plans to crush all political opposition in the country before fresh elections are held under the new constitution, currently being drafted by the National Convention.

But the crackdown is believed to have been prompted by the recent, momentous political events in the neighbourhood, particularly in Thailand and Nepal.

“The amazing political volte-face by Nepal’s King Gyanendra in the face of massive demonstrations demanding a return to democracy in the capital Kathmandu and the street protests in Bangkok that forced Thailand’s prime minister, Thaksin Shinawatra to step down as the country’s leader have rocked the old man, who now more than ever fears a repeat of the mass pro-democracy demonstrations of 1988, which forced Ne Win to stand down,” said a close confidante of Burma’s top general Than Shwe.

Taking lessons from Nepal and Thailand, Than Shwe appears keen to avoid heavy-handed methods which could only invite further international attention.

According to notes from a meeting between Burma’s police chief Maj. Gen. Khin Yi and his subordinates, made available to IPS, the police have been instructed to crush the NLD using stealth and intelligence and not brute force.

In the past, the police have been notorious for planting drugs, especially heroin, on young activists and students, arresting them and having them sentenced to several years’ imprisonment. These tactics are to be avoided and a more subtle strategy adopted with the aim of crippling the NLD.

Information Minister Brig. Gen. Kyaw Hsan recently warned the NLD that it could be outlawed at any moment. “The government has strong evidence that the NLD was involved with anti-government groups as well as terrorist organisations that would justify it being declared illegal,” he told a press conference near the border with Thailand, last month.

Ever since the NLD won a landslide election victory in 1990, it has been a thorn in the side of the army which denied the party assuming power and began systematic efforts to stifle democracy. The move to declare the NLD a terrorist organisation is the worst of these, so far.

NLD leaders are convinced that a final campaign to crush them is underway. Despite the apparent official change of tack by the police, harassment and intimidation, especially of young party members, has been stepped up in the last few months, according to senior party sources. Students and members of the NLD youth wing are being targeted, according to diplomatic sources in Rangoon. “This threat is intended to keep up the pressure on the NLD’s leaders,” said a western diplomat based in Rangoon. “It suits the SPDC to have the NLD registered, but impotent,” the diplomat added.

It has been clear for some time that the junta’s aim is to marginalise the charismatic Suu Kyi who is still under house arrest, and eliminate the pro-democracy parties as part of its planned national reconciliation process.

The National Convention is due to resume drawing up the principles of the new constitution in November. Burma’s foreign minister told his south-east Asian counterparts at the ASEAN foreign ministers retreat on the Indonesian resort of Bali in April that the new constitution would be completed by the end of next year.

“Than Shwe’s strategy is clear, before the constitution is drafted and put to a referendum, all the pro-democracy parties and ethnic groups – both those with ceasefires and those who haven’t – will be targeted and eliminated, or at the very least made impotent,” said the independent Burma analyst based in the Thailand, Win Min.

The renewed campaign to crush the NLD coincides with the Burmese regime’s fresh offensive against the ethnic rebel Karen along the border with Thailand.

The increased campaign of harassment and intimidation of NLD members seems to be the result of both internal and external factors. “Than Shwe has become increasingly concerned over the last months of the possibility of pro-democracy demonstrations erupting, especially in Rangoon,” said Win Min. “That’s one of the reasons for retreating to the new capital, Pyinmana,” he added.

From deep within his new bunker in Pyinmana, Than Shwe, has been carefully monitoring international events. He has ordered a crackdown on any signs of opposition within the country for fear of being forced to follow the example of some of his neighbours.

Late last year, the junta further isolated itself from the international community by moving its capital 400 km north into the country’s central hills.

Than Shwe has been disturbed and angered by the NLD’s recent initiatives and renewed assertiveness, especially as it coincided with the country’s prime minister Gen. Soe Win telling visiting Malaysian foreign minister Dato Syed Hamid Albar in March that Suu Kyi was now irrelevant to Burma’s political future.

Albar, an emissary of the Association of South-east Asian Nations (ASEAN) abruptly cut short his visit to Rangoon after he was denied access to Suu Kyi, now 60, ailing and kept under house arrest at her home in Rangoon.

In February, the NLD offered the government an olive branch in a press statement released to coincide with Union Day. In it the NLD leaders offered to recognise the military regime as the de facto government of Burma, on the condition that they allowed a peoples’ parliament to convene.

“The SPDC would be in charge of the transitional period until a government was formed by the parliament made up of the representatives elected in the national elections held on 27th May 1990,” the statement said.

The regime initially ignored the NLD’s offer, but officially rejected it last month when the information minister said the Burmese government would not hold any dialogue with the NLD outside the national convention, which the NLD has boycotted as undemocratic.

But the NLD’s attempt to reassert itself has particularly angered Burma’s top general who has now sanctioned an all out campaign to crush the NLD. “There is a definite trend here, when the NLD confronts the junta and reminds them that they are in effect the only legitimate government, the SPDC reaction is to pressure and further weaken the NLD,” said Win Min.

This also happened in 1998 after the NLD set up the Committee for Representing People’s Parliament (CRPP) and asked for the parliament to be convened for the first time. The SPDC cracked down on the NLD arresting parliamentarians and party members. Hundreds were forced to resign while others fearing for their lives fled the country.

In recent months, young activists and students have been detained and questioned; some have even been sentenced to several years’ imprisonment on trumped up charges. Key leaders of the student movement have also been attacked and one died from the injuries sustained during a brutal beating.

“We expect worse to follow as the military authorities go all out to eliminate us by the end of the year,” said a senior NLD official on condition of anonymity. He feared reprisals for talking to the foreign media.

Unfortunately, the NLD’s peace offer may have provoked an extremely aggressive response from the regime. “The SPDC cannot compromise with anyone, it’s not part of the military mindset,” analyst Win Min observed. Instead of dialogue, the NLD is facing one of its toughest trials yet since convincingly winning the 1990 elections.

Excerpt: