By Joseph Chamie and Barry Mirkin
NEW YORK, Nov 17 2015 (IPS)

Concerned with the consequences of demographic decline and population ageing, especially with respect to economic growth, national defence and pensions and health care for the elderly, a growing number of governments are seeking to raise birth rates. Whereas nearly 40 years ago 13 countries had policies to raise fertility, today the number has increased four-fold to 56, representing more than one-third of the world’s population.

The most recent and largest addition to this pronatalist group of countries, which includes Australia, France, Germany, Iran, Israel, Italy, Japan, Russia, South Korea, Spain and Turkey, is China. The Chinese government announced that it will change its controversial one-child policy to a two-child policy per couple in order to balance population development and address the challenge of an ageing population.

Assuming a slight increase in its current fertility level, China’s population of 1.38 billion is projected – according to the UN medium variant – to peak by 2030 at 1.42 billion and then decline to 1 billion by the end of the century (Figure 1). However, if fertility were to remain constant at its current level, China’s population would soon begin declining, reaching around 0.8 billion by the year 2100. If fertility were to instantly reach the replacement level, an unlikely event, China’s population would grow to 1.51 billion by midcentury.

Source: United Nations Population Division.

China’s population age structure is also becoming older than any time in the past. Whereas in 1950 less than five per cent of the Chinese were aged 65 years or older, today the proportion has doubled to 10 per cent. By 2035 China’s proportion elderly is expected to double again and reach one-third by around midcentury.

Similar to China, 82 other countries – accounting for almost half of the world’s population – are experiencing fertility rates below the replacement level of about two births per woman. As a result, the populations of 48 of those countries, including Germany, Japan, Russia and South Korea, are projected to be smaller and older by midcentury, even assuming modest gains in birth rates. If fertility rates were to remain constant at their current levels, the declines and ageing would be even more pronounced than currently expected (Figure 2).

Source: United Nations Population Division.

In an attempt to counter those two major demographic trends, many governments have adopted a variety of policies to raise birth rates. At one extreme are draconian measures such as prohibiting contraception, sterilization, abortion and the education and employment of women. As those measures violate basic human rights, few governments are prepared to take such drastic steps to raise fertility. Moreover, such measures have undesirable demographic consequences, including higher levels of unintended pregnancy, illegal abortion and maternal mortality.

Some governments are promoting marriage, childbearing and parenting through public relations campaigns, incentives and preferences. Such programs highlight the vital role of motherhood and its valuable contribution to the welfare and growth of the country. Australia and South Korea, for example, are among those making appeals to women to have one more child. Also, Iran is considering legislation that would encourage businesses to prioritize the hiring of men with children.

Perhaps the most common pronatalist policies aim to reduce parent’s considerable financial costs for childbearing and child rearing. Those policies include cash bonuses at the time of a child’s birth and/or recurrent cash supplements for dependent children

In Turkey, for example, parents are entitled to 300 Turkish lira (108 dollars) for the birth of their first child, 400 Turkish lira (144 dollars) for the second and 600 Turkish lira (215 dollars) for the fourth and subsequent child. One consequence of this legislation, however, has been the need for the provision of government financial assistance to needy families with large families.

Additional policies, especially popular among many Western countries, focus on making employment and family responsibilities “compatible” for working couples, especially mothers. In addition to extended maternity leave as well as paternity leave, other measures include part-time work, flexible working hours, working at home and family-friendly workplaces, including nurseries, as well as pre-school and after-school care facilities.

However, the costs of family friendly policies are not insignificant. For example, with fertility at two children per woman, France’s extensive scheme of family benefits is estimated to cost four per cent of gross domestic product, one of the highest percentages in the European Union.

Some governments are also looking to selective immigration to maintain the size of their workforce and slow down the pace of population ageing. However, a recent United Nations study concluded that international migration at current levels would be unable to compensate fully for the expected population decline. Between 2015 and 2050, the excess of deaths over births in Europe is projected to be 63 million, whereas the net number of international migrants to Europe is projected at 31 million, implying an overall shrinking of Europe’s population by about 32 million.

In addition, the financial costs, social integration and cultural impact of immigration have come to the political forefront in recent months. A growing tide of refugees and economic migrants – mainly from Syria, Afghanistan, Eritrea, Iraq, Nigeria and Pakistan, estimated at over 800,000 – have arrived on the shores of the European Union since the beginning of 2015 to escape war, repression, discrimination and unemployment.

As part of its response, the EU is considering a plan to offer aid money and visas to African countries that agree to take back thousands of their citizens who are unlawfully residing within its borders. Also aiming to stem the record inflows of refugees, various EU members have put up fences, imposed border controls and tightened asylum rules.

Other countries that are averse to encouraging immigration, such as Japan and South Korea, have instead opted to boost labour productivity as a means of compensating for a shrinking labour force. Those governments are also reviewing legislation to encourage more women to join and remain in the labour force by offering them family friendly work environments, improved career mobility and promotions to management and senior positions.

While family-oriented measures may encourage some women to have children, those policies are costly and their overall effect on fertility is weak or unclear. The many forces pushing fertility to low levels are simply too powerful for governments to overcome with dictates, financial incentives and public relations campaigns.

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Nearly 18 percent of the Cuban population is over 60, most of them women. Credit: Jorge Luis Baños/IPS

By Ivet González
HAVANA, Apr 29 2013 (IPS)

Paediatrician Grisel Navarro says she is “a different kind of retiree,” because she still practises her profession, goes out and about and refuses to be “at the beck and call of her family’s and everyone else’s needs,” something that diminishes quality of life for many Cuban women when they retire from work.

Navarro retired five months ago and now has a part-time job at the “Ángel Arturo Aballí” Hospital in Havana. “I’m still working at what I like, but at a gentler pace,” this 62-year-old member of a generation of women who have by far excelled the educational and employment attainments of their mothers told IPS.

Women in this Caribbean island nation who are now reaching retirement age, raised in 2008 by the authorities from 55 to 60 for women and from 60 to 65 for men, had mass access to education from infancy onward, and the majority took jobs.

They did so imbued by the so-called “revolution within the revolution,” as women’s emancipation was known as part of the process begun in 1959 in Cuba, which raised women’s participation and made strides such as wage equality with men.

However, activists today are advocating even greater changes in support of gender equity, and calling for public policies targeting the particular needs of women and girls in this country of 11.2 million people, where machismo is still strong.

Older women like Navarro aspire to “living a full life as older adults,” but their dream may be frustrated by factors like gender-related and age-related disadvantages, such as the low incomes of many older women.

The responsibilities of caring for the home, children and the sick remain firmly on their shoulders. Increasingly they are widowed and left alone, looking after grandchildren when young people leave the country, and many of them lack economic security because they have always been homemakers or receive only tiny state pensions.

“Women are living longer, but they tend to suffer from poor health, or from episodes of disability or disease, which result in lower quality of life,” demographer Sonia Catasus told IPS. “This phenomenon is to some extent due to factors linked to gender subordination.”

The life expectancy of Cuban women is 80.7 years, compared to 76.6 for men. The trend is for these figures to rise for both sexes, according to the Office of Statistics and Information (ONEI).

The span of years between retirement and death is increasingly lengthening for the population. This demonstrates the social and healthcare advances in the country, but at the same time constitutes a challenge to the economy, which is typical of developing nations.

Cuba is also still trying to emerge from the severe crisis it has suffered for more than 20 years.

For biological reasons, women live longer on average than men in all latitudes, Catasus said. That is why the process of “feminisation of ageing” is being discussed globally as a matter that requires special treatment on the part of governments.

A study by the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) based on 2010 data says women aged over 60 made up 10.7 percent of the female population in the region, while men over 60 made up nine percent of the total male population.

Furthermore, three out of 10 older Latin American women were aged over 75 in 2010.

In the same year, a World Health Organisation (WHO) study of 31 Latin American and Caribbean countries found that women could expect to endure 10 years of poor health over their lifespan, while men could expect to put up with only eight years of poor health.

This scenario will be more critical in the near future, as it will affect families, care systems, carer support systems, social assistance and health services, and the way the labour force is planned in countries like Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Costa Rica, Cuba, the Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico and Uruguay.

The report “Ageing in the Twenty-First Century: A Celebration and a Challenge” published in 2012 by the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) estimates that by 2050, 25 percent of Latin Americans will be over 60.

By then, Cuba will be among the 11 countries with the most elderly populations on the planet, with 38 percent of it population aged over 60.

While adequate pensions and health services are vital to improving quality of life for the elderly, Caridad Pegudo, a 67-year-old retired teacher, says it is essential to “be prepared and change your attitude.”

“We (older women) need to get outdoors and not stay at home all the time, as we tend to do. When we go out, we need to pay attention to our appearance, and always talk to other people,” Pegudo, a member of Tula, a group of women who sew patchwork handcrafts, told IPS.

“Keeping socially active helps us stay well and puts us in touch with new knowledge,” said this Havana resident, who in late March attended the Third Meeting on Meditation, a community initiative in Havana that attracted over 1,000 participants, especially older women.

“Women have been trained to look after their families and other people. But with the changes nowadays, many older women are worrying more about themselves. I think meditation helps them reconnect with themselves, and has benefits for their health,” said Juan Dávila, the president of the organising committee.

A number of other civil and state initiatives offer support to Cuba’s growing elderly population, including the more than 500 branches of the University for Older Adults offering courses on progress in modern science, and “Grandparents’ Circles” for carrying out physical exercises in groups.