Headlines reflecting the release of Belarusian political prisoners. Graphic: IPS

By Ed Holt
BRATISLAVA, Oct 7 2025 (IPS)

As Belarusian president Alexander Lukashenko continues to pardon political prisoners in an apparently increasingly successful attempt to improve diplomatic relations with the US, rights groups have warned the international community must not let itself be ‘tricked’ into thinking repressions in the country are easing.

Lukashenko, who has ruled Belarus for more than 30 years, last month (SEP) ordered the release of more than 75 prisoners, the majority of them political prisoners, after negotiations with US officials.

But critics have said while the release of any prisoners is welcome, it should not be taken as a sign that the persecution of the regime’s opponents is about to stop, and they point out that people are being jailed for their politics in Belarus at a faster rate than any are being released.

“While it is good that prisoners have been released, they should never have been in prison in the first place. There is a risk now that the attention of the international community will be diverted from the continuing repressions in the country. People are still in prison, and still being imprisoned, for exercising their human rights. While Lukashenko is releasing people, he is at the same time arresting more – it’s like a revolving door,” Maria Guryeva, Senior Campaigner at Amnesty International, told IPS.

The warnings follow the release on September 11 of 52 prisoners—the majority of whom were political prisoners—and the freeing on September 16 of a further 25 prisoners from Belarusian jails.

This came after direct negotiations with US officials and in return for an easing of sanctions on Belarus’s national airline, Belavia.

The releases were also followed by confirmation from US officials involved in the negotiations that US President Donald Trump had told Lukashenko that Washington wants to reopen its embassy in Minsk. Trump also spoke to Lukashenko on the phone earlier in the summer and has reportedly even suggested that a meeting between the two could take place in the near future.

Political experts say that much closer ties between Washington and Minsk, not to mention an easing of sanctions, would be a major PR coup for Lukashenko. It could also be attractive to President Donald Trump, as it would underscore his own touted credentials as a master conciliator and a defender of human rights who can free political prisoners.

Rights activists, though, fear that seeing such political gains from his actions will only embolden Lukashenko to use prisoners as “bargaining chips” to extract further political concessions in the future.

“It seems like this is a new tactic [by the Belarusian regime] to use political prisoners as bargaining chips, [and] it seems to be working in that Belarus is getting political favors for releasing prisoners. As long as the regime sees it can use them as bargaining chips, this policy will continue,” Anastasiia Kroupe, Assistant Researcher, Europe and Central Asia, at Human Rights Watch, told IPS.

Activists argue that ultimately, any concessions by the US, or other western nations, to the regime will do nothing to improve the dire situation with human rights violations in Belarus, especially given that there remain so many political prisoners in Belarusian jails—the rights group Viasna said that as of September 18 there were 1,184 political prisoners in Belarus—that Lukashenko could release when it is expedient.

They also point out that in some cases the individual releases in September were barely even pardons as such, given that many who were freed were just months or even weeks away from the end of their sentences anyway. The prisoners were, once ‘free,’ also forcibly deported from the country—one, opposition politician Mikalai Statkevich, refused to leave Belarus after being freed and was soon after re-arrested—to neighboring Lithuania.

“The fact that these prisoners were forcibly exiled is a further form of reprisal against them… for some it is a continuation of their punishment,” said Kroupe.

Belarusian rights activists told IPS that the mood among those who had been released was mixed.

While some were glad to be free, others were angry.

“A number of those released are extremely frustrated. Some had literally just a month left to serve and were planning to continue living in Belarus. They had almost fully served their, albeit unjustly imposed, sentences, but instead of freedom, they were punished once again,” Enira Bronitskaya, an activist with the Belarusian rights group Human Constanta, whose activities include helping exiled Belarusians, told IPS.

“They were thrown out of their country; many had their passports taken away (torn up), effectively stripped of their citizenship (deprived of documents, expelled from the country, with no intention from the state of their citizenship to provide any support). These actions are unlawful. People have been deprived of everything they had in Belarus, from property to the possibility of visiting the graves of their relatives who died while they were in prison,” she added.

Others among the Belarusian community in exile told IPS there were concerns the releases could actually be used as a distraction from an even more intense crackdown on dissent.

“In our community, some are hopeful that the releases are a sign of successful negotiations, but the majority, me included, does not find the news particularly positive. Of course it is a great relief for the people released and their relatives, but we are expecting an intensification of repressions,” Maryna Morozova*, who left Belarus for Poland soon after Lukashenko launched a massive crackdown on dissent following disputed elections in 2020, told IPS.

Just days after the 52 prisoners were released, a Belarusian court sentenced prominent independent journalist Ihar Ilyash to four years in prison on charges of extremism over articles and commentaries critical of Lukashenko.

The Belarusian Association of Journalists said the verdict was a sign that the authorities had no intention of softening their clampdown on independent media, pointing out that at least 27 journalists are currently behind bars in the country.

Exiled Belarusian opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya told international media after the September releases that “the regime’s repressions are continuing despite Trump’s pleas.”

Viasna pointed out that just on the same day the 52 prisoners were released, it had recognized eight new political prisoners.

Activists who spoke to IPS said it seemed likely that, given the apparent success of the prisoner releases in easing, to some extent, Belarus’s international isolation and sanctions, more prisoners could be freed in the near future.

“Of course we expect more releases. Lukashenko’s been doing it for many years—he did it in 2010 and 2015 when political prisoners were released. Lukashenko has a lot of experience in this ‘market,’” Nataliia Satsunkevich, an interim board member at Viasna, told IPS. “Generally, we can see that his policy [of using prisoner releases to get political concessions] works. There are goals he is trying to achieve [by using it],” she added.

Meanwhile, campaigners are urging governments to put human rights, and not politics, at the center of any future negotiations on prisoner releases.

“Every effort should be taken to free political prisoners but there needs to be a clear signal that human rights abuses are not being forgotten about and that no one is being tricked into thinking the repressions are over,” said Kroupe.

“Lukashenko is treating political prisoners like political currency, like hostages. Governments should stop this trade-off and force Lukashenko to comply with human rights law and put pressure on him to unconditionally release all political prisoners,” added Guryeva.

*NAME HAS BEEN CHANGED FOR SECURITY REASONS

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Flashback to 2020 protests against a rigged election. Credit: Andrew Keymaster/Unsplash

By Ed Holt
BRATISLAVA, Feb 10 2025 (IPS)

In the months leading up to presidential elections at the end of January, Belarus’s authoritarian leader Alexander Lukashenko ordered the release of hundreds of political prisoners. Some observers saw this as a sign that the man who had led the former Soviet state for the last three decades could be planning a relaxation of his regime’s brutal repressions in return for a lessening of Western sanctions.

But having secured an inevitable further term in office, human rights groups and Belarusians who have survived persecution under his regime say they see no signs he is preparing to loosen his iron grip on the state.

“If we have learned anything from the last four years, it is that repression in Belarus is not lessening, despite the fact that Lukashenko has everything under his power. There are no protests, people have been forced into exile, there are no legal ways for rights groups to do their work, yet the repression continues,” Anastasiia Kruope, Assistant Researcher, Europe and Central Asia, at Human Rights Watch (HRW), told IPS.

In August 2020, hundreds of thousands of people took to the streets in Belarus to protest against what they saw as the rigged result of an election which had just returned Lukashenko, who has ruled the country since 1994, to power.

Security forces launched a violent crackdown on those involved. Over the next six months, tens of thousands were detained and at least 11 people were killed.

Although the protests eventually stopped, repression has continued, with any form of dissent severely punished. There have been mass arrests, imprisonment, and torture for those deemed to be opposing the regime, while secret police and party loyalists have been installed in institutions as official ideological gatekeepers to ensure people toe the government line.

Independent media has been muzzled—almost 400 journalists have been arrested in the last four years—and much of the NGO sector has been effectively shuttered through repressive legislation on foreign funding and authorities’ misuse of anti-terror and anti-extremism laws. The closures of these groups have impacted everything from human rights work to vital healthcare services.

But while the wider international community largely sees Belarus as a pariah state—Lukashenko has the explicit political support of Moscow, and China maintains close ties with the country—and the West has imposed sanctions on individuals in Belarus, there has been no let-up in government efforts to bring the population to heel.

However, the slew of releases of political prisoners, which began last summer and went right up to the elections, had prompted speculation that Lukashenko may be looking to repair relations with the West, especially as the conflict in Ukraine—Lukashenko has backed Russia and allowed Moscow to use Belarus to launch assaults on Ukraine—appears to be heading towards some kind of, at least temporary, end, and he looks to extract his country from ever-increasing dependence on Moscow.

But people who live in Belarus, and some who have fled into exile, told IPS they are not expecting the pervasive climate of fear that Lukashenko has spread to cement his control in the country to lift any time soon.

“Usually the human rights situation in Belarus after elections becomes calmer, with fewer arrests. But it doesn’t look that way this time. We are still getting information about repressions,” Natallia Satsunkevich, a human rights defender with the Belarussian NGO Viasna, told IPS.

She said Lukashenko could even decide to intensify his crackdown on opponents of his regime.

“Of course [he could], the repressive machine is huge and works fast. Police are still looking for and arresting people that participated in protests in 2020,” Satsunkevich said.

Others who have suffered under Lukashenko agree.

“Any expectations that the repression will ease are just wishful thinking,” Lidziya Tarasenka, co-founder of The Belarussian Medical Solidarity Foundation (Bymedsol), which operates outside Belarus helping doctors who have left the country, told IPS.

Tarasenka, who worked in healthcare in the capital, Minsk, before fleeing the country after the 2020 protests, said she saw no sign that repression in Belarus was easing off.

“First of all, the number of political prisoners that have been released is less than the number of those newly imprisoned. The government has learned their lessons and is trying to make new prosecutions as unnoticeable as possible, but the process is in full swing. Secondly, there is a whole army of different police/secret services and so on, their number is growing and they have to be doing something. [Repression] cannot be stopped that easily,” she said.

Some Belarussians who spoke to IPS gave some insight into the regime’s persecutions.

Sviatlana (NOT REAL NAME) fled Belarus last year after she feared she was about to be arrested. Her work in healthcare had brought her into contact with former political prisoners, some of whom had been tortured in prison, and she had given some money for treatment to help their recovery. She managed to escape, but she fears now that her former colleagues will be targeted by the security services simply for having worked with her.

“I’m expecting there will be repressions against the staff and management at my work now,” she told IPS.

Kruope added that while Belarusians not actively opposing the regime could try to adopt a “keep your head down and don’t make any trouble” approach to ensuring they avoid any repressions, even that carried no guarantees.

“One thing people have to watch out for is that you never know what might suddenly become a problem. You may have, in the past, liked a social media comment or followed someone, not even for their political views, or simply followed a media outlet that is then declared a terrorist group or something, and now find yourself in trouble. It is difficult to know what activity might suddenly become a criminal offense,” she said.

So far, it is unclear what Lukashenko may be planning as he begins his latest term in office. But the initial signs suggest he is not planning any kind of rapprochement with the West in the immediate future.

In a press conference immediately after his election win and as western leaders threatened more sanctions and dismissed the elections as a “sham,” he pointedly said, “I don’t give a damn about the West.”

However, even if repressions continue, rights defenders have not given up hope that things will improve in the future.

“I personally believe that one day Belarusians will live in a free and democratic country,” said Satsunkevich.
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Aid agencies say that refugees caught on the Polish and Belarus borders are subject to brutal pushbacks. Graphic: IPS

By Ed Holt
BRATISLAVA, Apr 25 2024 (IPS)

As the refugee crisis on the Belarus/EU borders approaches its fourth year, a crackdown on activism in Belarus is worsening the situation for migrants stuck in a “death zone” as they attempt to leave the country.

Groups working with refugees say the repression of NGOs in Belarus has led to many organizations stopping their aid work for migrants, leaving them with limited or no humanitarian help.

And although international organizations are operating in the country providing some services to refugees, NGOs fear it is not enough.

“There have been elevated levels of violence [against refugees from border guards] since the start of this crisis. But what has got worse is that before there were more people willing to help these refugees in Belarus, but now there is pretty much no one there helping as activism can be punished criminally in the country,” Enira Bronitskaya, human rights activist at Belarussian NGO Human Constanta, which was forced to pull out of the country and now operates from Poland, told IPS.

Since the start of the refugee crisis on the Belarus/EU border in the summer of 2021, rights groups have spoken out over brutal refugee ‘pushbacks’ by guards on both sides of the border.

Some have accused Minsk of manufacturing the crisis as a response to EU sanctions. They say Belarusian authorities actively organize, encourage, and even force migrants to attempt crossings over the border, but at the same time sanction violent and degrading treatment of those same migrants by border guards.

But others have also raised issue with what they say are equally violent and inhumane methods used by EU border guards in Poland, Latvia and Lithuania against those same migrants, as well as systematic breaches of their rights to claim asylum.

“These people are subjected to numerous forms of violence, both by Belarusian and Polish border guards. We’ve seen bruises, black eyes, knocked-out teeth after blows, kicks or hits with the back of rifles, irritation of skin and eyes after being sprayed with pepper gas, and teeth marks after dog bites,” Bartek Rumienczyk of the Polish NGO We Are Monitoring (WAM), which helps migrants who arrive in Poland from Belarus, told IPS.

“We also tell people they are entitled to ask for international protection in Poland, but in practice, these pleas are often ignored by border guards. We have witnessed numerous situations when people were asking for asylum in our presence and still they were pushed back to Belarus,” he added

These practices leave people stranded between the two borders in terrible conditions. Some aid workers describe it as a “death zone”.

“Refugees who manage to make it over [into the EU] talk about the ‘death zone’ between fences on the EU border and razor wires on the Belarus side and border guards who will not let them back into Belarus. They are therefore stuck there,” Joanna Ladomirska, Medical Coordinator for Medecins sans Frontieres (MSF) in Poland, told IPS.

“This death zone runs all along the Belarus/EU border, and it is huge—maybe tens of thousands of square kilometers—and no one knows how many people might have died there, or might be there needing treatment. My worry is that no one has access to this zone—not NGOs, no one,” she added.

At least 94 people have been known to have died in the border area since the start of the crisis, according to Human Constanta’s research, although it is thought many more may have also lost their lives.

Those that do manage to cross the border are invariably injured, some seriously. Exhaustion, hypothermia, and gastrointestinal affections because migrants have been forced to drink water from swamps or rivers are common, while almost a third of them have trench foot, and many have suffered serious injuries from razor- and barbed-wire fences. Some have also had to have parts of their limbs amputated due to frostbite, according to aid groups providing medical care to them.

Although both international and local organizations continue to work to help migrants on the EU side of the border, this is much more limited on the Belarusian side, say those working directly with migrants.

Since mass protests following his re-election in 2020, autocratic Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko has implemented a sweeping crackdown on dissent. This has seen, among others, widespread prosecutions of workers in civil society.

Many NGOs, including some that had previously helped migrants, have been forced to close, leaving only a handful of major international organizations to do what they can for migrants.

However, questions have been raised about how effective their operations are.

“There are international organizations like the ICRC that are working with the Red Cross, but the Belarus Red Cross is only handing out food parcels in certain areas; it’s not a regular, stable supply,” said Bronitskaya.

“Basically, there is no one there giving [the migrants] the help they need. It is very possible there will be even more deaths than before,” she added.

But it is not just those stuck between the borders who are struggling to get help.

Anyone who fails to get into the EU and finds themselves back in Belarus is classed as an irregular migrant, is unable to access healthcare or benefits, and cannot legally work.

Many quickly find themselves in poverty, living in constant fear of being discovered by immigration authorities, and vulnerable to exploitation. Some aid workers told IPS they had heard of migrants in Minsk and other Belarussian cities forced to turn to prostitution to pay to support themselves.

Facing such problems, many decide they have little choice but to attempt the crossing again despite the risks.

Aid organizations and global rights groups say governments in EU countries and in Minsk must adhere to their obligations to protect the rights of these migrants.

“It’s not the best approach to the situation if the EU makes it difficult or impossible to cross its border by building walls or putting up legal barriers, nor is it good if Belarus creates a situation where people are stranded,” Normal Sitali, Medical Operations Manager for Medecins sans Frontieres (MSF) in Belarus, told IPS.

“There must be unhindered access to the border area for independent humanitarian organizations and for international and civil society organizations to respond to the dire situation there. Governments need to look at ensuring access to healthcare for these people so that international organizations do not need to provide and pay for it; they also need to look at legal protections for them; and they need to examine how these people can be ensured the space and protection to claim their rights as individuals while in transit,” he added.

MSF, which helped thousands of migrants during the crisis, last year stopped providing services to them after deciding migrants’ medical needs were outweighed by their need for protection and legal support, which MSF says can only be provided by dedicated organisations with specific expertise.

But some doubt the situation will improve any time soon with political relations between Belarus and the EU badly strained.

“Governments need to do something but the political situation makes things complicated. EU governments will not negotiate with Lukashenko because of the repressions going on in Belarus. Unless there is some significant change, nothing is going to get better,” said Bronitskaya.

However, others are hopeful of change.

Officials in Poland’s new government, which came to power in December last year, have claimed the number of pushbacks has fallen under the new administration and said a new border and migration policy is being drawn up that would treat the protection of human rights as a priority. Plans are also being put in place for the border forces to set up special search and rescue groups to stop humanitarian crises at the country’s borders, they have said.

“As a European country, [Poland] should respect European human rights laws and provide people with access to safety. You don’t need to negotiate with the Belarus regime to do that,” Ladomirska told IPS.

“I hope that with the new Polish government, something might change. We’re talking to them; change is feasible, and with the new government, there is an opportunity for that change.”

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Flashback: March of Justice, Minsk, Belarus, in September 2020. Credit: Andrew Keymaster / Unsplash

By Ed Holt
BRATISLAVA, Sep 6 2021 (IPS)

There will soon be no one left to defend human rights or help minorities in Belarus as the country’s third sector moves closer to “complete liquidation”, international rights groups have warned.

Belarus’s authoritarian president, Alexander Lukashenko, has stepped up his regime’s crackdown on any potential opposition in recent weeks, ordering the closure of scores of NGOs, claiming they are being run by foreign entities fomenting the destabilisation of the country.

As of mid-August, more than 60 civil society groups had been shuttered, including not just human rights organisations but some promoting women’s rights, helping the disabled, and working with people who have HIV/AIDS.

This comes amid a wider crackdown on independent media and pro-democracy activists which began a year ago after mass protests following Lukashenko’s re-election in a widely disputed election.

Heather McGill, a researcher for Amnesty International, told IPS: “We are close to the liquidation of the third sector. There is hardly anyone left in Belarus to provide help to people that need it. There won’t be any groups left in Belarus to protect anyone, or defend their rights.”

Belarussian civil society has come under increasing pressure over the last year as authorities in the country have moved to repress any possible opposition to the regime.

Not only have many organisations faced sudden police raids and checks, some staff have been arrested or harassed, while demands to fulfil what groups say are impossible administrative obligations have been used to force their closure.

Some groups have moved out of the country and are continuing their work from abroad. However, this limits what services and help they can provide.

“Some groups provide legal services, lawyers, for instance, for people. Those simply won’t be there now,” said McGill.

Groups providing key social services, including help for the elderly or the sick will also be affected.

“Many non-profit organizations did work with the issues that the state did not do and, having lost the services of NGOs, ordinary people, including those from vulnerable groups, will suffer,” Svetlana Zinkevich of the Office for European Expertise and Communications NGO, told the Devex media platform.

Her organisation, which works to build third sector capacity, has been told it must close.
Lukashenko has been in power since 1994 and during his rule, Belarus has been repeatedly criticised for human rights abuses and suppression of opposition. He has often been dubbed ‘Europe’s last dictator’.

But the scale of the attacks on the third sector, and wider repression in society of anyone seen to be linked to pro-democracy or anti-regime movements, has shocked seasoned observers of the country. 

Rachel Denber, Deputy Director of the Europe and Central Asia Division at Human Rights Watch (HRW), told IPS: “Belarusian civil society had, despite years of authoritarian autocracy, managed to flourish, expand, and grow quite strong. The scale and scope of the raids, arrests, and moves to close civic organizations in recent months in Belarus is unprecedented in this region.”

There has been an equally shocking crackdown on independent media with most independent news outlets having been forced to close and the few independent journalists still working talking of living in daily fear of arrest.

According to Reporters Without Borders (RSF), the country is now the most dangerous place in Europe for journalists, and the Belarussian Association of Journalists (BAJ) says that over the last year almost 500 journalists have been arrested, 29 have been imprisoned, and there have been almost 70 documented incidents of violence against reporters.

Meanwhile, the BAJ, the only independent representative organisation of journalists and media workers in Belarus and one of the country’s most prominent champions of freedom of expression, has been dissolved on the order of the Supreme Court for allegedly not dealing with alleged administrative violations after a Justice Ministry inspection earlier in the year.

One worker in what remains of Belarus’s independent media told IPS: “We have never encountered so many violations of the rights of journalists, especially physical attacks, arrests, and detentions.

“An unprecedented number of journalists are under criminal prosecution, being deemed political prisoners. It is obvious that the authorities are trying to silence the press, constantly increasing the level of pressure, thereby grossly violating the right of their citizens to information, and no one knows when this will end.”

Apart from NGOs and their staff, the dire situation has also forced many ordinary people to leave the country.

Natalia*, a former emergency services worker who was involved in organizing protests last year, told IPS she had fled Belarus after fearing she and her family were about to be arrested.

She said that she was arrested many times, abducted off the street by police, told her three children would be taken from her and put into care unless she stopped organising protests, tortured in police cells, had her leg broken by riot police at a protest before suddenly fleeing with the rest of her family one night after discovering her home had been broken into by security forces.

“I had kept a small bag of clothes packed in case I was detained and held ahead of a trial. It was all I had when I crossed the border. I later found out a warrant for my arrest had been issued,” she said.

Meanwhile, Alexiy*, a former student in Minsk, told IPS how he had left the country earlier this year by trekking through forests across the border into Russia and then travelling on to Western Europe.

He said that what has been happening in Belarus over the last year was “shocking and sad” and that life had become “terrible” in many places, especially the capital Minsk. “There is fear everywhere,” he said.

It is unclear how long the current repression in the country is likely to last. Much of the international community has condemned what they say are the appalling human rights abuses being committed in Belarus, and some countries have imposed tough sanctions on Lukashenko’s regime.

But whether these are having their intended effect is hard to gauge.

Groups like Amnesty International suspect the NGO closures are related to sanctions imposed by Western nations.

It is also thought that the regime is orchestrating flows of thousands of undocumented immigrants towards its borders with EU states in the Baltic region, to potentially provoke an international refugee crisis which it can use as leverage to get the EU to reverse sanctions.

Analysts also believe that the regime’s fate – and that of pro-democracy movements, independent media, and the wider third sector – depends more on financial injections from Russia than external pressure from Western governments.

Russian president Vladimir Putin has approved USD 1.5 billion in loans for Belarus over the last year while Lukashenko is also courting closer economic ties with his traditional ally.

McGill said: “The country can go on without the third sector, and it can go on as it is as long as there is no economic collapse, which is not going to happen while Russia is giving its financial support.”

But others see some hope in the fact that even as it faces liquidation, people working in Belarus’s civil rights groups are refusing to abandon their work entirely.

“The situation is grim. [But] it’s heartening that so many civic groups are still finding ways to carry out this work. It speaks to their commitment and sheer determination,” said Denber.

*Names have been changed for reasons of safety.

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Armenia has finalised its accession to the Russia-led Eurasian Economic Union, an intended regional counterweight to the European Union. But while Armenian and Russian officials focus on future prosperity, some Armenian observers believe membership in the bloc could exacerbate Armenia’s security challenges.

During an Oct. 10 meeting of the Supreme Eurasian Economic Council, held in Minsk, Belarus, Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan confirmed that Armenia would be formally admitted to the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) when it launches on Jan. 1, 2015.“Currently, we have no expectations with regard to security. We see only threats.” -- Aghasi Yenokian, director of a Yerevan-based think-tank

The Armenian government approved the draft text of the accession agreement in early October, Armenian media reported. The EEU will be an outgrowth of the existing customs union among Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan.

Armenian political analysts greeted the accession announcement with mixed feelings, in part because the final text of the pact has not been subjected to public scrutiny. There is particular concern about the pact’s ramifications for Armenia’s relationship with the Nagorno Karabakh territory, an enclave inhabited by ethnic Armenians who aspire to gain international recognition of their de-facto independence from Azerbaijan.

A draft released earlier this year implied that a customs post would be established between Armenia and Karabakh. Local economists say that such an economic barrier would paralyse Karabakh’s economy since the territory depends on Armenia as its primary market for its limited selection of exports.

Beyond the potential economic ramifications, many Armenians would see the establishment of a customs regime as tantamount to the cutting of cultural ties with Karabakh, an act that could leave the territory – and, consequently, Armenia itself – vulnerable to possible Azerbaijani aggression.

“Currently, we have no expectations with regard to security. We see only threats,” commented Aghasi Yenokian, director of the Armenian Center for Political and International Studies, a Yerevan-based think-tank.

Over the past year, Armenian officials have said repeatedly that Armenia’s membership in the Eurasian Economic Union takes into account security guarantees for both Armenia and Karabakh, but no proof of this has been offered.

As a result, uncertainty continues to swirl around the future of the Armenia-Karabakh trade relationship. Two of the EEU’s three members, Belarus and Kazakhstan, are on record as categorically opposed to allowing Armenia to share the bloc’s trade advantages with Karabakh, which none of the members recognise as a country independent from Azerbaijan.

In Minsk, however, Kazakhstani President Nursultan Nazarbayev stated that a “compromise” had been reached “on a delicate question within the borders by which Armenia will be joined to our union,” the ITAR-TASS news agency reported.

Details were not immediately available.

Members of the ruling Republican Party of Armenia contacted by EurasiaNet.org declined to comment on the challenges that EEU membership could pose for Armenia’s ties with Karabakh.

“There is a very complicated period awaiting us, taking into account the somewhat unfriendly attitude of the EEU to Armenia, particularly on the part of Nazarbayev and [Belarusian President Alexander ] Lukashenko,” commented Styopa Safarian, director of the Armenian Institute of International and Security Affairs.

President Sargsyan, a native of Karabakh, does not, however, appear to share such worries. Congratulating Russian President Vladimir Putin on his Oct. 7 birthday, Sargsyan stated that Putin’s “consistent efforts” for a peaceful resolution of the 26-year Karabakh conflict with Azerbaijan, and his support for Armenia’s EEU membership “deserve the deepest appreciation.”

Opposition parties have also adopted conciliatory stances toward Russia, observers note. This fact leaves some analysts glum; to them, it means the political class is unlikely to push hard to promote Armenia’s interests within the EEU.

“The opposition and the authorities do their best not to make the Kremlin angry,” said Styopa Safarian, the analyst and former member of the opposition Heritage Party. “This situation is not encouraging at all.”

Editor’s note:  Marianna Grigoryan is a freelance reporter based in Yerevan and editor of MediaLab.am. This story originally appeared on EurasiaNet.org.

Edited by Kitty Stapp

Victory Day on May 9 was an occasion for Russians to indulge in patriotic flag waving in Moscow. Russian President Vladimir Putin used the previous day to muster a show of diplomatic support for his efforts to bring formerly Soviet states closer together.

On May 8, Putin met with the presidents of Armenia, Belarus, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan in the Kremlin. Following the success of the Euromaidan movement in Kyiv, Putin has made it a priority to shore up support among other formerly Soviet states for Russia’s geopolitical agenda, in particular the establishment of a regional economic union as a precursor to a wider political union of Eurasian states.“It’s hard to predict anything these days, but it seems to me that the treaty will be signed -- but in a reduced form, with most difficult issues to be resolved after signing,. -- Nargis Kassenova

A treaty on the formation of a Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) is due to be signed in Astana in late May, paving the way for its launch in January 2015. The body would be an outgrowth of the existing Customs Union, a free trade zone comprising Russia, Belarus, and Kazakhstan. Armenia and Kyrgyzstan are slated to join the Customs Union before the end of the year.

As Putin warmly welcomed existing and potential union members in Moscow on May 8, ostensibly for security talks unrelated to the economic integration project, the question on the lips of Kremlin watchers was: will they or won’t they put pen to paper on the EEU founding document in less than three weeks’ time?

The Moscow meeting came on the heels of a disastrous Customs Union summit in Minsk on Apr. 29, where expectations of finalising the treaty fizzled as Putin and his counterparts, Alexander Lukashenko of Belarus and Nursultan Nazarbayev of Kazakhstan, admitted that, at this late stage, they have differences over the pact’s wording.

Nazarbayev’s conspicuous absence from the May 8 talks in Moscow, convened under the auspices of the Collective Security Treaty Organisation, set tongues wagging about differences of opinion. Contacted by telephone by EurasiaNet.org, Nazarbayev’s office said it had no comment — but some observers interpreted his no-show as a snub to Putin from one of his closest allies.

As other regional leaders were cozying up to the Kremlin, Nazarbayev was having a tete-a-tete in Astana with a senior official from the United States, Moscow’s arch-rival in the geopolitical struggle over Ukraine. Deputy Secretary of State William Burns used the meeting to assure Nazarbayev of America’s “enduring” commitment to Kazakhstan and Central Asia, the State Department said, as the Ukraine crisis helps “underscore what’s at stake.”

Regional analysts tend to believe that the recent signs are not indicators of insurmountable problems surrounding the EEU’s formation.

“It’s hard to predict anything these days, but it seems to me that the treaty will be signed — but in a reduced form, with most difficult issues to be resolved after signing,” Nargis Kassenova, director of the Central Asian Studies Center at Almaty’s KIMEP University, told EurasiaNet.org.

“If it’s not signed it will be a blow to the reputation of Vladimir Putin, but also to some extent that of Nursultan Nazarbayev,” she added. “Both invested a lot of personal image capital into it.”

Alex Nice, a regional analyst at the London-based Economist Intelligence Unit, also feels that integration plans are more or less on track.

“It’s possible there might be a further delay to the final signing of the document, but I’m confident that the treaty will come into force as planned next January,” he told EurasiaNet.org, pointing out that “negotiations on the EEU treaty are very far advanced.”

“Of course, some of the more controversial provisions will be subject to lengthy transition periods,” Nice added.

The chances of the agreement being signed on time are “quite high,” concurred regional security expert Aida Abzhaparova of the University of the West of England. Nazarbayev is a cheerleader for integration, she pointed out, and signing the treaty in Astana would have huge “symbolism” for him: Nazarbayev first proposed the notion of a Eurasian union long before Putin took it up, and sees himself as “the father of the idea.”

Speculation that the union might be heading off the rails was fueled by reports on May 7 that Kyrgyzstan’s prime minister, Joomart Otorbayev, wished to postpone membership for a year — but his spokeswoman denied the claim. Otorbayev had, on the contrary, said Kyrgyzstan would complete the legislative groundwork to join by the end of the year, Gulnura Toraliyeva told EurasiaNet.org by telephone.

Armenia is expected to join sooner – but is currently bogged down trying to negotiate some 900 exemptions to the union’s single customs tariff.

Analysts believe that incorporating the weaker economies of Armenia and Kyrgyzstan into the union is a sticking point in the treaty negotiations; Kazakhstan and Belarus are believed to be wary of the economic implications amid Russian efforts to expand its geopolitical clout.

Perhaps the biggest threat to the EEU’s success is Russia’s actions in Ukraine, suggests Kassenova.

“The Ukraine crisis undermined Russian policy in the post-Soviet space,” Kassenova said. “Now it’s seen as a bully without any respect for the sovereignty of its neighbors. Plus, the crisis undermined the economy of Russia and made it less capable of serving as the locomotive of integration.”

“On the one hand, the crisis should give more bargaining power to Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan,” she continued. “On the other, the overall destiny of the project is in doubt: will Russia have the will and resources to support and sponsor it further?”

Editor’s note:  Joanna Lillis is a freelance writer who specialises in Central Asia. This story originally appeared on EurasiaNet.org.

Belarusians will vote for a new, but still regime-controlled parliament on Sep. 23. At least those who do not respond to calls for boycotting the poll.

The opposition is far from united in their positions on the election: some are campaigning, some boycotting, others plan to pull out right before voting day. But all are agreed that the election process is being rigged.

The seats, dissidents believe, will again be distributed according to the will of president Alexander Lukashenko who has ruled the nation of 10 million since 1994, earning the title “Europe’s last dictator”. The parliament in Belarus, as in most autocracies, has in any case very little say.

The election campaign started Aug. 22. The registration process ended the same day. Every fourth contender has been denied the right to run.

The election commissions registered most opposition candidates, but banned the most popular – on the ground of alleged irregularities in their financial disclosure, or claims that some of the signatures on their supporters’ lists were forged.

“Registration has been denied to those who would run till the end with a fair chance to win,” analyst Valery Karbalevich tells IPS.

Among the excluded are Aleksander Milinkevich, leader of For Freedom movement, a former Lukashenko rival in the presidential race, Anatol Liaukovich, former leader of the Belarusian Social-Democratic Party and Mikhail Pashkevich from ‘Tell the Truth!’.

Some popular dissidents are still in jail, like Mikola Statkievich who was sentenced for six years for “driving riots” on Dec. 19 2010 – the day of the rigged presidential election. An estimated 20,000 protesters assembled in the main square of capital Minsk on that day, leading to a massive crackdown against opponents of the regime.

Some opposition members cannot run because of their suspended sentences. Others fled abroad, such as Ales Mikhalevich, another presidential candidate, who was arrested and charged for organising riots.

Mikhalevich was released after two months in jail and said he and other political prisoners had been tortured. He escaped the country soon after, and has been granted political asylum in the Czech Republic.

This has not deterred him from trying to run for parliament. Members of the civic initiative ‘Freedom for Mikalai Statkevich and other political prisoners’ put forward candidatures of Statkievich and Mikhalevich. But the concerned election commission derided the move as “PR action aimed at gaining them prominence,” and said “there is no legal ground” to nominate them.

IPS asked Ales Mikhalevich whether he believes the opposition will manage to enter parliament at all. “Probably not,” he said. “The mechanism of vote rigging is well oiled. To quote Joseph Stalin: ‘It’s not the people who vote that count; it’s the people who count the votes’.”

Among 68,945 members of the election commissions charged with vote counting less than 0.1 percent are from the opposition, fewer than in the last parliamentary election in 2008. The 279 registered candidates then included 70 critics of the regime – none of who gained a seat.

But Mikhalevich says boycotting would be a mistake. “The Opposition should run to show that our candidates are of better quality than those of the regime.” The Lukashenko administration has put forward mostly elderly officials and security apparatus members.

Independent opinion polls give the president 25-35 percent of support, mostly among villagers and pensioners. But that does not mean that the rest are ready to support opposition, let alone fight the regime.

Interest in the election is close to zero. “None of my friends plan to go to the ballot,” Alexei, a 26-year-old doctoral student from Minsk told IPS. “Not because we are boycotting; we just don’t care about politics. This election is not going to bring any change.”

Divisions in the opposition movement are playing further into the hands of the regime.

“By persecuting some opponents while offering preferential treatment to others, Lukashenko is skillfully playing his critics,” said Mikhalevich.

Although confident of victory, Lukashenko still seems to be nervous, mostly over the prospect of widespread boycott.

In a speech Sep. 1 he criticised those who shun electoral confrontation. “Had it been the actual opposition, they would have struggled to the very end for power, for the nation’s interests,” he said. “But this is the fifth column, they act for the benefit of certain powers, some of which are located outside our country.”

Another sign of the regime’s nervousness are recent arrests of administrators of political social media groups – especially those calling for boycott.

On Aug. 30 law enforcement officers in Minsk and Vitsebsk detained four moderators of two pro-opposition groups. One of them had said bluntly, “We’ve had enough of Lukashenko” – on the Russian social network VKontakte.ru.

Investigators physically abused the moderators in a bid to obtain the password of the group they administer. “I was taken to the living room and tortured for an hour for the password. They hit me in the head, chest and stomach,” Pavel Yeutsikhiyeu reported.

Among them, Yeutsikhiyeu and Andrey Tkachou got five and seven days in jail, respectively, on charges of petty hooliganism. Others were released after a few hours.

The human rights group Viasna reported on Aug. 31 that access to the pro-opposition news websites Charter97 and BelPartizan had been blocked. Much of the content was removed.

“As usual, the regime is preparing for the elections with an all-out crackdown,” Reporters Without Borders declared. “The judicial harassment of journalists and Internet users critical of the government has just one aim – to keep them under pressure and make them feel permanently threatened.”

The authorities are meanwhile engaged in building pro-government websites, some defaming opposition members. None has gained much popularity.

Many people believe Lukashenko will stay in power for the next two decades, then hand the government to his son Kola, now eight years old.

Mikhalevich predicts “a revolt inside the state apparatus which might open the doors of change.

“To me a Ceasusescu scenario seems probable,” he said, referring to Romanian head of state Nicolae Ceausescu who was overthrown and executed following a televised two-hour court session in 1989.

“I believe Belarusians have already grown to democracy,” he said. “They just don’t want to fight for it.”