The complexity of the Brazilian electricity system has evolved from a model based on hydroelectricity supplemented by thermoelectricity to a combination of diverse sources, without planning and with little control, whose excess intermittent generation threatens to cause blackouts. Credit: Mario Osava / IPS

By Mario Osava
RIO DE JANEIRO, Sep 25 2025 (IPS)

Wind and solar power sources, essential for the energy transition to mitigate the climate crisis, have become a risk of power outages in Brazil.

It is a remedy that, in excess, becomes poison. The rapid and unplanned growth of these alternatives has created operational difficulties for the Brazilian electricity system, which is nationally interconnected.“Brazil has one of the most complex electricity systems in the world. No other country has such a diversity of sources”–Luiz Barata.

A blackout on August 15, 2023, which affected 27% of the supply throughout most of the country, was a major wake-up call about insecurity. It began with the transmission of wind and solar power plants in the state of Ceará, in northeastern Brazil.

It almost happened again in April and August of this year due to excess generation, according to the  National System Operator (ONS), a private organization that represents consumers and all sectors involved, which coordinates and controls supply nationwide.

A functional electrical system requires surpluses; energy must be available at all outlets for eventual consumption. But “too much excess causes problems,” said Luiz Barata, former director general of the ONS and current president of the non-governmental National Front of Energy Consumers.

The proliferation of solar and wind power plants in Brazil has created imbalances between supply and consumption that caused operational difficulties in effective distribution, such as power outages in 25 of Brazil’s 26 states on August 15, 2023. Credit: Fotos Públicas

Renewables in question

The intermittent nature of wind and solar power, which have grown the most in the last decade, exacerbates the risks due to their uncontrollable origin. This type of energy depends on nature, on when there is wind and sun.

The plot thickens with distributed generation, also known as decentralized generation, which turns consumers into producers of their own electricity in 3.8 million residential micro-plants or groups of individuals or small businesses.

This dispersed generation already exceeds 43 gigawatts of power, according to data from the National Electric Energy Agency (Aneel), the sector’s regulatory body.

This amounts to 18% of the country’s total generating capacity, with solar photovoltaic power dominating the segment with a 95% share.

“In addition to being uncontrollable, because it depends on the sun, distributed generation cannot be interrupted, as it is beyond the control of the ONS,” warned Barata, an electrical engineer.

What the ONS does is curtail the contribution of some generating sources when excess supply threatens the system. In general, the interruption affects wind and solar generation, which are further away from the area of highest consumption.

The Northeast, favored by strong and regular winds and solar radiation, concentrates most of these sources, while the highest electricity consumption occurs in the Southeast, Brazil’s most populous and industrialized region.

Wind farms occupy hills and mountains throughout the Northeast region of Brazil, which has become a supplier of electricity for the entire country. The intermittency of this source, with generation concentrated at night, contributed to the risk of blackouts in the country. Credit: Mario Osava / IPS

Uncertain future

The trend is for operational problems in the electricity system to worsen because distributed generation continues to expand, due to the legal incentives it enjoys, and without planning, as it is the result of individual decisions.

From January to August 2025, the ONS discarded 17.2% of the country’s potential wind and solar generation, which corresponds to 7% of the country’s monthly consumption. This tripled the cuts compared to the same period in 2024, according to an analysis by Volt Robotics, an energy consulting firm.

In August, the rejection reached 57% of new renewable generation due to excess supply.

“Brazil has one of the most complex electricity systems in the world. No other country has the diversity of sources that we have,” Barata told IPS by telephone from Brasilia.

Of a total of 236 gigawatts of installed capacity at the end of 2024, hydroelectricity continues to account for a majority, with 46.5% of the total, according to the state-owned Energy Research Company. But it is no longer as dominant as it was in 2000, when it accounted for 89%.

Solar energy, with 20.5%, wind energy with 12.5% and thermal energy, which consumes fossil fuels and biomass, with 18.6%, already exceeded hydroelectricity in 2024, with a trend towards further growth.

Necessary reform

There has been a change in the electricity matrix, which has shifted from hydrothermal, basically hydroelectric and supplemented by thermal power plants, to a growing incorporation of new renewable sources, given the lower cost of their implementation and distributed generation, Barata pointed out.

However, legislation and regulations have not kept pace with this transformation, said the expert, who believes the sector needs a comprehensive structural reform in order to reduce risks and restore better operating and planning conditions.

“It is a complex system that cannot be solved with simple measures,” he said.

Joilson Costa, coordinator of the non-governmental Front for a New Energy Policy for Brazil and also an electrical engineer, considers it “incorrect” to attribute systemic risks solely to excess wind and solar generation.

“Excess supply is only part of the problem, not the only one. Another cause is the deficiency of the transmission system, which makes it impossible to transport the energy generated in the Northeast to other regions at certain times. This then necessitates a cut in generation,” he argued.

Nor can it be said that distributed generation is outside the scope of planning. The Energy Research Company, part of the Ministry of Mines and Energy, does consider this modality in its plans because “its studies and simulations allow it to make estimates,” even though it cannot control the expansion of microplants, Costa noted.

Electricity distribution companies also monitor the evolution of distributed generation in their networks and can update their data monthly, he told IPS by telephone from São Luis, capital of the northeastern state of Maranhão.

Distributed generation, which is small-scale and generally consists of photovoltaic panels on residential or commercial roofs, already accounts for 43 gigawatts of installed capacity in Brazil. There are 3.8 million plants benefiting seven million consumer units, without the necessary control over the operation of the national electricity system. Credit: Mario Osava / IPS

Daily asynchrony

The major risk factor, however, is the lack of synchrony between the generation and consumption of new sources of electricity in their daily cycles.

Solar generation occurs during the day, peaking around noon, when consumption is low. It declines just as consumption increases at the end of the day and beginning of the night, when lights and household appliances are turned on, especially electric showers, which are widely used in Brazil.

Wind farms, concentrated in the Northeast, generate electricity mainly late at night, when consumption drops again.

Pericles Pinheiro, director of New Business at CHP, a gas generation equipment and solutions company in Rio de Janeiro, identifies a trend toward crisis in the Brazilian electricity system in his ongoing analysis of the sector. “Every summer, new emotions,” he jokes.

In previous years, he identified a risk in the proliferation of diesel generators that many companies used to avoid the higher cost of electricity during peak consumption hours in the early evening.

But they abandoned this resource because they migrated to the free market, which has expanded in Brazil in recent years, lowering energy costs for large consumers by allowing them to choose their supplier.

Diesel generators, which helped reduce the upward curve of consumption during peak hours, disappeared or declined, exacerbating daily fluctuations in demand, in cycles opposite to those of wind and solar sources, Pinheiro told IPS.

Distributed generation reduces demand on the grid and the share of electricity managed by the system operator, in a trend that exacerbates insecurity, he added.

The ONS estimates that by 2029 it will control less than half of the country’s installed generation capacity, increasing the operational uncertainty of the national interconnected system.

The proliferation of digital data centers in Brazil, which the government is trying to promote, is seen as a way to balance electricity consumption and supply in the country.

But these huge energy sinks would consume the excess during the day but increase demand at night, as they operate 24 hours a day, warned Pinheiro, who identifies another risk in electric vehicles whose batteries consume the electricity of several homes when recharging.

A satellite view of Syria in February/March 2015. Credit Xi Li/Wuhan University

By Josh Butler
UNITED NATIONS, Mar 11 2015 (IPS)

A single image can be more powerful, more descriptive and more potent than an entire essay – ‘ a picture says a thousand words,’ as the cliché goes.

So it is in Syria, where despite the undoubted millions of words penned about atrocity after atrocity, bombing after bombing, a newly-released set of satellite images spell out the true devastation wrought on the nation.“People are functioning the same way as in the Middle Ages. Modern technology, which we take for granted, cannot be used. Even the lucky ones with a generator have to ration it." -- Dr. Zaher Sahloul

Since the start of the conflict in 2011, more than four-fifths of lights across Syria have gone out.

With Syria, a coalition of 130 non-governmental organisations, launched the sobering statistic on Thursday. Research by Dr Xi Li, of Wuhan University in China, showed between March 2011 and February 2015, the number of lights visible over Syria has fallen almost 83 percent.

“I have analysed other countries, but Syria is the worst case I’ve ever seen of nighttime lights going out like this,” Li told IPS. “It is very similar to the figures of the Rwandan genocide. Rwanda and Syria are the two most impacted and most suffering countries I’ve seen.”

Figures vary nationwide. In Damascus, only 33 percent of lights have gone out; while in war-ravaged Aleppo, Idlib and Al-Raqqah, up to 97 percent of lights have been extinguished.

Li says the astonishing lack of light in the country is due to three factors; the displacement of citizens from towns and cities, the destruction of buildings and their lights, and disruption of electricity supply, all of which have hugely damaging and potentially deadly effects.

“Electricity is one of the basic needs for people, but basic supplies have been cut off. Most people there are living in darkness,” Li said.

Destruction and disruption of power supply is not unfamiliar for Dr. Zaher Sahloul. President of the Syrian American Medical Society (SAMS), Sahloul – a Syrian himself, with family still in the country – and his organisation provide medical care in trauma centres and clinics around the country.

SAMS also provides diesel, to fuel power generators in areas without steady electricity supply. Sahloul said a lack of basic utilities is one of the biggest issues faced by citizens and aid groups looking to assist on the ground, claiming that areas like Ghouta – near Damascus – have been without power for over 860 days.

“Some of the shortages are intentional, by fighting groups. When they circle an area, or start a siege, they cut off the power. Some government controlled areas have electricity a few hours a day, usually after midnight, because of rationing,” he told IPS. “Aleppo and Ghouta have a complete dependence on generators and diesel fuel.”

Sahloul said SAMS provides funding for facilities to purchase diesel fuel, but it is scarce and expensive – up to 12 dollars per gallon, “the highest in the world,” he claims.

“People are functioning the same way as in the Middle Ages. Modern technology, which we take for granted, cannot be used. Even the lucky ones with a generator have to ration it. Many functions have stopped in the cities under siege,” Sahloul said.

“The basic functions of any village, like garbage management, water, bakeries and schools – with no power, how can you do those? It is a formula for disaster.”

Syria has just shivered its way through a harsh winter, with temperatures plunging to -7 degrees Celsius (20 degrees Fahrenheit). Many Syrians battled the cold in tents in refugee camps, or in the shells of destroyed houses, with no way to keep warm. Sahloul’s family was one of those.

“They have been trying to get fuel for months, but have not been able to, so they can’t use the heating in their house,” he said.

“Tens of thousands of displaced people have no heat. There were children dying, freezing to death. Nowadays, nobody can live without electricity.”

Sharif Aly, Advocacy Counsel for Islamic Relief USA, said his group’s recent efforts had also focused on helping Syrians survive a brutal winter without heat, power or even secure shelter. Due to security concerns, Islamic Relief was only able to provide basic blankets and coats in some parts of the country.

“People being displaced have to brave the elements, a very cold winter with snow and ice. There were deaths from freezing,” Aly told IPS. “Our winter work has been to try and provide gas or fuel to families. Hopefully the problems are starting to alleviate with spring, but it has been a big challenge.”

Aly said a lack of electricity, as well as ongoing dangers from gunfire, bombings and other military activity had made providing medical care hugely difficult; but while emergency trauma care for wounds is the most obvious medical emergency, he said psychological and emotional injuries were all but ignored in the region.

“There are huge mental health problems, a lot of psychological impact for these innocent people caught in the conflict,” he said.

“Getting health aid is challenging. We recently started a kidney dialysis service in Lebanon, because due to the situation in Syria and a lack of health services, there is not a lot of opportunity to get good treatment for urgent things like dialysis.”

Sahloul said many members of the medical community are fleeing Syria as the conflict becomes even bloodier. Former U.S. Secretary of State Madeline Albright, addressing a telebriefing on the release of the ‘lights out’ figures, said 2014 was “the bloodiest year yet” of the conflict, bringing the total death toll since 2011 to over 200,000 lives.

“Every physician I know in Syria is thinking about leaving, even in so-called stable areas,” Sahloul said.

“The continuation of violence is adding strain to the medical community. There has been systematic targeting of health facilities by fighting group. There is a flight of doctors and nurses out of Syria.”

A report released Wednesday by Physicians For Human Rights claimed 610 medical staff had been killed in Syria since 2011, with 233 attacks on 183 medical facilities.

The group said the Syrian government “committed the vast majority of these attacks,” responsible for 97 percent of medical personnel killings, including 139 by torture or execution.

Sahloul said the exodus of medical staff has led to the spread of diseases such as typhoid and tuberculosis, parasites including lice and scabies, malnutrition, and chronic diseases going untreated due to a lack of access to healthcare and medication.

March 2015 marks four years since the beginning of the Syrian conflict. Despite a death toll in the hundreds of thousands, 11 million people displaced, and an untold number of wounded, an end to the violence is not in sight.

“People on the ground are not hopeful. There are rumblings in the NGO community that this could be an eight or 10-year conflict,” Aly said. “There is no expectation of a resolution anytime soon.”

Li, drawing another parallel between Syria and the Rwanda, said he hoped the international community would act before the Syrian conflict became as infamous as the 1994 genocide.

“The international community ignored Rwanda, and after, they regretted it. I don’t want people to have any more regrets after this conflict ends,” he said.

Sahloul expected a similarly grim future.

“In areas like Aleppo, the situation is as bad as always, or even worse. Nobody is optimistic, and nobody is taking the crisis as seriously as they should be,” he warned.

“They are thinking Syria can be contained. It is not contained. This is the tip of the iceberg. If it continues, the situation in the whole region will explode.”

Edited by Kitty Stapp

Young people heat themselves by the eternal flame at a WWII monument in Bishkek last February. Each winter in Kyrgyzstan the energy situation seems to worsen; blackouts last longer, and officials seem less able to do anything to improve conditions. This year is expected to be particularly difficult. Credit: David Trilling/EurasiaNet

By Anna Lelik
BISHKEK, Oct 16 2014 (EurasiaNet)

Each winter in Kyrgyzstan the energy situation seems to worsen; blackouts last longer, and officials seem less able to do anything to improve conditions. This year is expected to be particularly difficult.

The winter heating season has not even begun and already lots of people are bracing for months of hardship. A video, posted Oct. 12 on YouTube, depicting Kyrgyz doctors having to perform open-heart surgery amid a sudden blackout, is helping to heighten anxiety about the coming winter.Last year, when temperatures dropped to -20C (-4F), the 89-year-old pensioner spent three months living in a vegetable storage shed with a small stove she kept going with a mix of coal dust and dung.

In another alarming signal, Bishkek’s local energy-distribution company, Severelectro, sent out advisories with recent utility bills, describing the situation as “critical” and begging customers to conserve electricity and use alternatives to heat their homes.

Southern Kyrgyzstan has been without gas since April, when Russia’s Gazprom took over the country’s gas network, and neighbouring Uzbekistan said it would not work with the Russians. That has forced residents in the south to use precious and expensive electricity to cook, or resort to burning dung and sometimes even furniture.

On top of that, a drought has hampered operations at Kyrgyzstan’s main hydroelectric plant at the aging Toktogul Dam.

After President Almazbek Atambayev criticised the energy minister on Oct. 9, the minister promptly quit. But a personnel reshuffle will not do much to reassure citizens, such as pensioner Valentina Chebotok, who lives in Maevka, a Bishkek suburb.

When she began to contemplate the hassles associated with winter, Chebotok started to cry. Last year, when temperatures dropped to -20C (-4F), the 89-year-old pensioner spent three months living in a vegetable storage shed with a small stove she kept going with a mix of coal dust and dung. This year, Chebotok managed to secure a gas heater, but on her pension of 87 dollars per month she will have to use it sparingly.

There has been some good news: Kazakhstan agreed on Oct. 14 to supply over a billion kWh of electricity this fall and winter. In September, the Russian energy giant Gazprom announced gas prices for exports to northern Kyrgyzstan – that is, the only areas connected to its network, since Uzbekistan refuses to supply its gas to the southern network – would fall 20 percent.

But in many parts of the country the electrical system is overloaded. Prior to the Gazprom deal, many consumers grew tired of constant gas shortages, and converted their heating systems to run on electricity. That is what Maksim Tsai, a mechanical engineer in Bishkek, did seven years ago.

“I was forced to switch to electric heating. And Kyrgyzstan was [at the time] considered a country with abundant electricity,” he told EurasiaNet.org.

Citing a need to conserve electricity, government officials have made often contradictory statements about the type of three-phase electrical adaptors that Tsai and many others now use. Some officials have said they want to ban three-phase adaptors, which can support higher electricity loads; others express an interest in increasing tariffs for three-phase households. Tsai said he now plans to switch back to gas.

“The government took the right decision to transfer Kyrgyzgaz to Gazprom. Now I have got assurance that we won’t have problems with gas, though it is still expensive,” he said.

The current confusion offers crooked officials an opportunity to line their pockets. A hotel owner in Bishkek complained in September that Severelectro officials came to his business and attempted to seize his three-phase adaptor.

“They came over and made us sign a document saying that we understood why the three-phase adaptor was being confiscated. We asked for a copy of the document, but they said we couldn’t get one because ‘we don’t want the press to get hold of this.’ We were allowed to keep our adaptor after we paid a bribe,” the hotel owner said.

The officials warned the hotel owner to expect blackouts this winter at his central Bishkek location, “‘Maybe five hours a day, maybe more, they said.’”

Another heating alternative is coal. In August, Prime Minister Djoomart Otorbaev called on Kyrgyzstanis to use coal this winter for heating, since it is “a relatively inexpensive fuel.”

Though Kyrgyzstan is endowed with plenty of coal, the industry is plagued by scandals and, reportedly, organised criminal activity – factors that drive up prices and force consumers, including government agencies, to buy imports.

Sultanbek Dzholdoshbaev, a wholesaler at the main coal market outside of Bishkek, said that supplies from the famed and fought-over Kara-Keche deposit have decreased in recent years, pushing up prices.

He explained that local gangs took control of Kara-Keche during the chaos following President Kurmanbek Bakiyev’s 2010 overthrow. Moreover, the state-run company that manages Kara-Keche is unable to run such a large-scale operation efficiently, Dzholdoshbaev asserted.

Meanwhile, prices keep rising. According to sellers and buyers at the coal market, the price for a tonne of coal has increased 25 to 35 percent this season. That might be in part due to demand. Delivery-truck drivers say demand has been high since August, when the government started warning about the tough winter ahead.

If those living in freestanding homes have options, such as gas and coal, the tens of thousands of Bishkek residents living in multi-story buildings with central heating provided by Severelectro have only electricity as backup.

Larisa Musuralieva, who lives in an apartment block in a southern district of the capital, said that the old radiators in her flat do not provide sufficient warmth: “These radiators heat so badly […] so we use an electric heater. If blackouts happen this winter, it will be very cold at home.”

Editor’s note:  Anna Lelik is a Bishkek-based reporter. Chris Rickleton contributed reporting. This story originally appeared on EurasiaNet.org.

Edited by Kitty Stapp