Somalis rally in support of peace in the capital Mogadishu. The country is still divided over whether a federal system of government should be implemented. Credit: Ahmed Osman/IPS

By Ahmed Osman
MOGADISHU , Sep 6 2013 (IPS)

The system of government remains the biggest political obstacle in Somalia as key political players boycotted the government’s current national conference to discuss this country’s political future, according to Jaylani Mukhtar, a local academic based in capital Mogadishu.

“I think Somalis do agree much about their future. But the issue of federalism is what we will mark as the biggest political obstacle facing the country, and the current conference will have much to debate about it,” Mukhtar told IPS.

On Sep. 2, the Somali Federal Government’s five-day conference began with an agenda to discuss key issues, which include implementing federalism, reforming the constitution and conducting elections in 2016 when the government’s term of office ends.

But representatives from many of this Horn of Africa’s breakaway states did not attend. The northeastern semi-autonomous state of Puntland said it would not attend the conference and accused the Somali government of “tampering” with the national constitution. It is a claim denied by Somali parliament speaker Osman Jawari.

The breakaway republic of Somaliland, in the northwest of the country, also did not send official representation to the conference.

Mohamed Jama, one of the organisers of the conference, said the meeting was not meant to represent the regional states but had brought together “experts and the national intelligentsia” to chart a pathway for this country’s political future.

“This was never meant to be a conference where various groups, whether they be regional states or political factions, record their stances, but a platform for Somalia experts, intelligentsia and the general public to discuss and debate about the country’s future direction politically,” Jama told IPS.

He said after deliberation and discussion on the various issues, conference participants would present recommendations to the government.

But the exclusion of key players in the current debate is similar to the previous government’s handling of the issue of federalism, always a divisive subject in Somalia.

The issue of giving member states autonomy over regional affairs, but still holding them subject to the authority of the government, has been praised by some as a solution to the two decades of civil conflict here. Others say that such a political system could further escalate the conflict by encouraging clan-based mini states.

Somalia’s former and interim Transitional Federal Government, which ended its mandate in August 2012, had agreed with regional states and local factions in central and southern Somalia that the country would adopt a federal system of government.

But Mukhtar said that the agreement had been among political leaders, and the Somali people had not been given a chance to vote on it. He said that it was a constitutional issue that was yet to be endorsed by the people.

“The problem is that the issue was just a political agreement and not a constitutional one because such an arrangement and how we implement federalism will be decided by the people when given the chance to have their say,” Mukhtar said.

Ahmed Daahir, a political analyst from the northern Somalia town of Bossaso, in Puntland, said federalism in Somalia could be a way to bring the government to the people.

“We have been governed directly from Mogadishu for many years, since independence actually, and that has brought destruction and state collapse. So what the people are saying is let’s empower citizens by having federated states,” Daahir told IPS.

The most recent breakaway state here is the semi-autonomous state of Jubbaland in southern Somalia. In May, local militia known as Ras Kamboni declared the three southern border provinces of Lower Jubba, Middle Jubba and Gedo as the state of Jubbaland and elected their leader, Ahmed Mohamed Islam, better known as Sheikh Madobe, as president.

The leaders argued that the constitution gave them the right to form the state, but government officials said the new state was not inclusive of all clans in the provinces and this could lead to bloodshed.

After Ethiopian mediation, the Somali government struck a deal with the regional leaders to institute a two-year interim administration for the breakaway state.

The agreement was seen as test of the government’s leadership. But the practicality of federalism in Somalia was rejected by many of the clans in Jubbaland who were not represented in the peace talks. Many saw the agreement as the government giving the leadership of the regions to Ras Kamboni, thereby ignoring the rights of other clans in the area.

“The Addis Ababa Agreement has shown us that to some federalism means a mini-state for one’s clan within Somalia, even at the expense and exclusion of others,” Mukhtar said.

He said that other autonomous states have “organically grown” in Somalia, such as the breakaway republic of Somaliland, and the self-autonomous state of Puntland in the northeast. There are also the breakaway states of Galmudug, as well as the Himin and Heeb states in central Somalia. These states are also clan-based “in various degrees” from being pure single-clan entities to being quasi multi-clan states.

As the debate rages at the national conference over the future political make-up of the country, Daahir fears that it will further the deep distrust among Somalis.

“What we need in Somalia more than anything now is real and genuine reconciliation to heal the wounds of the past three decades then and only then can we have meaningful discussion about the future of this country,” he said.

Senior militia commander Ahmed Mohamed Islam, better known as Sheikh Madobe, declared himself president of a self-declared autonomous state known as Jubbaland. Credit: Abdurrahman Warsameh /IPS

By Ahmed Osman
MOGADISHU, Sep 2 2013 (IPS)

Somali clan leaders say that an Aug. 27 agreement between the government and only a few leaders from the country’s three southern Jubba regions, which aims to resolve the ongoing dispute over who controls the area, creates more problems than it solves.

“The agreement, in essence, gives in to the original demands of one clan, the Ras Kamboni militia, for the domination over other communities just because they have the bigger guns. And that is unfortunate,” Mohamed Hassan, a clan elder in the southern port city of Kismayo, told IPS.

Since the 2012 ouster of the Islamist militant group, Al-Shabaab, from much of this Horn of Africa nation’s southern territories, the Somali government and the local militia group Ras Kamboni have been at loggerheads over control of the area.

On May 15, Ras Kamboni selected Ahmed Mohamed Islam, better known as Sheikh Madobe, leader of the group and as president of a self-declared regional autonomous state, which they named Jubbland. Kismayo was declared the state’s capital city. The Somali government, however, refused to recognise the state, which comprises the three southern regions Gedo, Lower Jubba and Middle Jubba.

In June, fighting broke out between the Ras Kamboni militias and local clans after they rejected Madobe’s authority. The World Health Organisation said that more than 70 people were killed and hundreds more injured as a result.

But Hassan said that the Jubba agreement, which was signed in the Ethiopian capital, Addis Ababa, did not address the core issue of the conflict and could lead to a more “uncertain future” for the people in the three provinces.

“With the exception of changing the name of the self-proclaimed state from Jubbaland to the Interim Jubba Administration, such an arrangement will further ignite communal conflict,” he said.

The deal establishes a two-year interim administration that will be run by leaders from the three southern states. It outlines managing the region’s federal institutions and infrastructure, including the airport and seaport – two of the main revenue generators for Gedo, Lower Jubba and Middle Jubba regions.

The agreement also envisages the integration of the local militias into the Somalian National Army and calls for reconciliation and confidence building between communities in the regions.

But Hassan cautioned against the agreement institutionalising a “one-clan hegemony” in Somalia’s most-diverse regions.

“We all know these regions are not inhabited by one clan, but are the most diverse regions in Somalia. Giving priority to one clan over others is calling for a continuation of the conflict, so I call on the Somali government and the international community to annul the so-called agreement and organise a real reconciliation for all clans here,” Hassan told IPS.

“We are for peace and brotherhood between the peoples here, not legitimising clanism. We will not accept anything less than justice, equality and respect for all.”

Yusuf Omar, a political scientist and independent analyst from Kismayo, told IPS that most of the local clans had not been represented in the talks that culminated in the signing of the Aug. 27 agreement.

“The conflict is not between the Somali government on the one hand and one clan in the Jubba regions on the other. The conflict is between local communities over the future of the provinces, and most were not represented at the talks,” he said.

A Somali soldier patrols a street in southern port city of Kismayo. Regional leaders say that the agreement with some of the regions’ clans and the Somali government over control of the three southern states could cause further divisions in the area. Credit: Ahmed Osman/IPS

While clan leaders say that the deal does not change anything on the ground, both the Somali government and leaders of Ras Kamboni insist that the agreement guarantees the new interim administration will be “an all-inclusive and representative body of all clans and constituencies.”

But the Mogadishu-based independent Somali think tank, the Heritage Institute for Policy Studies (HIPS), said the agreement was deliberately “crafted in worryingly vague terms.”

“In the absence of reliable population data and a recent census, the accurate distribution of seats [among the] clans is not possible. Representation lies at the heart of Somalia’s political conflict. Use of this language threatens to incite further conflict,” HIPS said in a report titled the “Jubba Agreement: Imperfect Progress”, which was released after the signing of the deal.

Kulmiye Yusuf, a local academic from Kismayo, agreed that the ambiguity of the terms of the agreement could lead to problems during its implementation phase. However, he believes that the deal marks a new start in the relations between the government and Madobe, the leader of the Ras Kamboni militia and the self-declared president of Jubbaland.

“I do agree with the assessment of the institute [HIPS] that what has been achieved so far is an imperfect progress. But what is needed is to view this as a good start and that genuine reconciliation between the local communities can now be initiated,” Yusuf told IPS.