The police battling protesters in Kiev. Concerns continue about unrest even if the violence dies down. Credit: Natalia Kravchuk/IPS.

By Pavol Stracansky
KIEV, Feb 21 2014 (IPS)

As Ukraine’s capital experiences the worst violence in its post-Soviet history, some protestors are warning that the festering discontent with the regime which led to the current crisis is unlikely to disappear overnight even if a solution to the current impasse is found.

When the anti-government protests began in November they were ostensibly a mass reaction to the decision by President Viktor Yanukovych to turn his back on the first stage of EU accession.“People having had enough of Yanukovych, the corruption and the economic situation have all aroused the anger that has brought people onto the streets." -- Masha Kostishyn, an unemployed economist

But they soon became as much an expression of distaste and frustration with the ruling regime as any single political decision.

“This all started with the abrupt decision not to sign the agreement with the EU, but there was more to it than that. Everyone was completely fed up with Yanukovych’s regime,” Valerii Drotenko, a 45-year-old protestor told IPS.

Since coming to power in 2010, civil liberties have been eroded, political opponents have faced severe repression, and the independence and integrity of law enforcement agencies has all but disappeared, local and international rights groups say.

At the same time the perception of massive corruption, cronyism and nepotism within the regime has grown among the general population. Critics have pointed to Yanukovych concentrating political power in his own office and at the same time building his own family into a wealthy and socially dominant force.

On top of all this, Ukraine’s economy has struggled desperately since the financial crisis in 2008. Its currency is close to collapse, trade and budget deficits have ballooned and the country has been stuck in a recession for the last 18 months.

Masha Kostishyn, 34, an unemployed economist who lives in Kiev, told IPS: “People having had enough of Yanukovych, the corruption and the economic situation have all aroused the anger that has brought people onto the streets. But this would all be more civilised if the economic situation was better. As it is, at the moment it only helps to create chaos and anger.”

Ukraine’s dire economic situation and an accompanying inability to attract foreign investment has pushed it to be more and more reliant on trade with Russia, especially in the east of the country where much of Ukraine’s heavy industry is concentrated.

Already culturally close – one-sixth of the Ukrainian population is ethnic Russian – this has given the Kremlin an extra lever to strengthen its political influence on Kiev.

But, experts say, this has only pushed more of the population away from the government, especially in Western Ukraine which has traditionally been seen as more pro-European.

The sudden U-turn in late November when Yanukovych backed out of the deal and appeared to pledge the country’s future direction to its Eastern neighbour was the breaking point for many who feared Ukraine would become little more than a Kremlin puppet state embracing Russia’s model of state capitalism, and political and social repression.

Violence and killings over the past month, particularly the horrendous bloodshed of the past few days, has only deepened the general resentment towards the regime.

But while the opposition sticks to its calls for Yanukovych to go, even if they succeed in their demands eventually, many protestors say they hold little faith in the potential replacements.

The main opposition party, The Fatherland, is viewed by some as little more than another corrupt part of the political establishment.

Drotenko told IPS: “The authorities are criminal by their nature [but the] opposition is just another side of the same coin.

“They were pretty comfortable in their role as a ‘puppet’ or ‘decorative’ opposition, being paid by the same oligarchs as the ruling party and ignoring the voices of the people in the same way as Yanukovych has.”

He added: “Most of the people out protesting in Kiev are far from zealous backers of the opposition.”

Others have pointed to the radical far-right politics of the Svoboda party which is one of the major opposition movements involved in the protests.

Some protestors have blamed a lack of cohesion and inaction among opposition leaders in the past months for not bringing a swift end to the crisis in the early weeks of the protests.

“Yanukovych is certainly stupid and is to blame because of his criminal actions, but the opposition is also culpable for its not taking action quickly and decisively in the weeks after the protests began,” said Drotenko.

The horrific violence of the last few days has prompted a flurry of diplomatic action from the EU, the U.S. and Russia and early Friday a deal was agreed between the opposition, Yanukovych’s administration and Russian and EU diplomats to bring an end to the crisis. A key element of that deal is an early election.

But there is disappointment among some in Kiev that diplomatic efforts have come only now, and there is continuing unease over the underlying tensions.

Olga Kovalchuk, 37, a teacher in Kiev, told IPS: “Perhaps while this was a purely political conflict, before it escalated into violence, some form of action from the EU or Russia might have worked, but not any more. They missed their chance.”

Kiev in flames on Tuesday night. Credit: Natalia Kravchuk/IPS.

By Pavol Stracansky
KIEV, Feb 19 2014 (IPS)

Bloody clashes that have left more than a score dead and more than a 1,000 injured in the Ukrainian capital could continue for weeks. Local people say there is now “no way back” for either side in what has become the worst crisis in the country’s post-Soviet history.

Protests began in Kiev at the end of November after President Viktor Yanukovych turned his back on a deal which would have seen Ukraine forge closer ties with the European Union and move towards eventual accession to the group.“I know that all the hospitals in the country are emptying out non-essential patients and making room for the people that will be injured in these clashes."

They turned violent in mid-January after the passing of a set of controversial laws designed to stifle anti-government demonstrations and opposition movements.

There was some hope of progress at the start of this week when an amnesty was granted to hundreds of people detained during the protests and the government appeared to be considering concessions. But violence flared as Yanukovych pulled back on plans to agree the appointment of a new government or to have his own wide-ranging powers curtailed.

Protestors marched on parliament and ransacked buildings while security forces began firing on them.

As deadly battles raged and parts of the city became what residents told IPS are a “flaming battleground”, emergency meetings between opposition leaders and the government failed to produce any resolution, with each side blaming the other for causing the violence.

Protestors have told IPS that the death toll will rise in coming days, and that they see no end in sight to the bloody conflict.

Alexander Pyvovarov, a volunteer doctor who has been working at field hospitals set up near the main protest areas in Kiev, told IPS: “Things will escalate and get worse. I am expecting weeks more violence. People are really angry and there is no away back now for either side.

“I know that all the hospitals in the country are emptying out non-essential patients and making room for the people that will be injured in these clashes. Everyone knows what is coming.”

He added that the capital had been gripped by fear. “We’re all scared for our lives. We’re afraid this is going to be a massacre.”

The killings this week have been a turning point in the protests, according to many locals, some of whom had until now a neutral stance towards the protestors.

One Kiev resident, who asked not to be named, told IPS that he had closely watched the protests and seen “violent and stupid behaviour” from both the security forces and anti-government demonstrators.

But, he said: “Whether it is 25 killed or 125 killed, it doesn’t matter. The government has crossed a line and everyone is angry.”

Western leaders have condemned the violence and called on President Yanukovych to calm the situation. The EU is considering sanctions against Ukraine. And in what appeared to be co-ordinated statements earlier this week, both Kiev and the Russian foreign ministry blamed Western powers for fomenting the confrontation.

Ukraine has strong cultural and economic ties to Russia – a sixth of the population is ethnic Russian and another sixth speaks Russian as its first language.

Apparently alarmed by the protests, and in a bid to keep Kiev within its sphere of influence, Moscow agreed late last year on a vast package of financial and economic help for Ukraine. In January the government passed a series of controversial laws, some of which were modeled on existing Russian laws, which were seen by the international community as designed solely to muzzle anti-government dissent.

The close ties between Yanukovych’s regime and the Kremlin have fuelled rumours that Russian security forces were helping the local police.

There have also been reports in western media that the current crisis could split Ukraine, with one section moving towards even closer ties with Russia and the other looking towards Europe. President Yanukovych’s largest support base is in the eastern half of the country while the West is generally seen as more pro-European and anti-Russian.

However, many local people say this scenario is unlikely as there are no clear fault lines between populations in both parts of the country.

Although opposition leaders have, since the start of the protests, held meetings with foreign heads of state and EU officials to seek support, the Yanukovych regime appears resolute against any external involvement, even in the form of independent mediation, to end the crisis.

What is clear to many, however, is that the current situation needs to be resolved as soon as possible. Vladimir Onichenko, 47, a car mechanic from Kiev, told IPS: “The only way to solve the situation is for both sides to sit down for talks mediated by an independent body.

“What is happening at the moment cannot go on. Talking on the basis of the reality of what’s going on is the only way to stop this violence and the damage to the country.”