Former Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe in 2013 pictured here at a Southern African Development Community heads of state summit in Malawi where he was given a standing ovation. Mugabe died of an undisclosed illness on September 6, 2019 in Singapore. Credit: Kervin Victor/IPS

By Busani Bafana
BULAWAYO, Zimbabwe, Sep 7 2019 (IPS)

Former Zimbabwe strongman Robert Mugabe, who died this week, aged 95, leaves a mixed and divisive legacy.

Mugabe – the oldest African leader when he was removed from power in November 2017 – died of an undisclosed illness in a hospital in Singapore on Sept. 6.

Once a revered hero who liberated Zimbabwe from the brutal colonial rule in 1980, Mugabe ruled the country for 37 years before he was deposed in a military coup in 2017. Mugabe’s once-trusted comrade and enforcer, who later turned foe, Emerson Mnangagwa, became president in a 2018 election which was disputed by the opposition.

Describing Mugabe as the iconic leader of the struggle for national liberation, Mnangagwa paid a glowing tribute to Mugabe who sacked him as vice-president in 2017.

“A pan Africanist fighter, Comrade Mugabe bequeaths a rich an indelible legacy of tenacious adherence to principle on the collective rights of Africa and African(s) in general and in particular the rights of the people of Zimbabwe for whom he gave his all to help free,” Mnangagwa said in tribute broadcast hours after he confirmed Mugabe’s death on his official twitter account.

The fighter Mugabe was known for many things, including securing and protecting his own hold on power after he became the country’s Executive President in 1987, the same year he forged an uneasy unity accord between the country’s main political parties, the Zimbabwe African National Union Patriotic Front  (Zanu PF) and the Patriotic Front Zimbabwe African People’s Union (PF Zapu).

A political colossus

Many adjectives easily fit Mugabe; liberation fighter, diplomat, patriot, pan Africanist, Marxist, strategist, shrewd contriver and master manipulator. Mugabe was also a highly intelligent man and an accomplished scholar, attributes that endeared him to many.

“There is no doubt that Robert Mugabe will go down as a colossus in Zimbabwean history,” David Coltart, former Education Minister and human rights activist, told IPS.

“He has a remarkable impact on Zimbabwe both positively and negatively and his positive legacy is that he fought a bitter struggle with Joshua Nkomo to end white minority rule that will be an enduring legacy. The other positive legacy is he expanded a quality education to all Zimbabweans and he must be given credit for that. He built on the legacy of Garfield and Grace Todd from the 1950s and expanded education.”

Coltart concedes to Mugabe’s less than illustrious legacy, noting that Mugabe perpetuated the violence of the former minority white Rhodesian Front government by disrespecting the rule of law and constitutionalism, growing corruption, abuse of office and the destruction of the Zimbabwean economy which forced hundreds of thousands to leave this southern African nation.

“History will tell on balance whether his legacy is more positive than negative,” Coltart said. “There is no doubt he was revered within Zimbabwe and revered throughout Africa. Indeed one could argue that he was more popular in the rest of Africa than he was in Zimbabwe himself. There is no doubt he mellowed in the final few years of his life, he mellowed in the inclusive government and reached out to the [opposition] MDC [Movement for Democratic Change] and the country settled to a certain extent and the country grew.”

“As Education Minister I worked well with him and we had a good functional relationship and we managed to stabilise the education sector and get it on a growth trajectory again, but of course during that period corruption continued to flourish in the country and after 2003 he allowed corruption to continue and allowed the constitution to be breached in the many ways that it was,” he said.

From liberator to dictator

Praised as a nation builder at independence when he extended the hand of reconciliation across the racial divide, Mugabe was not only a political liberator per se. He sought to liberate his country from poverty too, promoting investment in education, social welfare, industrialisation and food security.

In 1998, Mugabe was awarded the 100,000-dollar Africa Prize for Leadership for the Sustainable End of Hunger given by the Hunger project, a New York global aid organisation in recognition of his stewardship in Zimbabwe’s agriculture success story. The country’s agricultural programmes were praised for having ”pointed the way not only for Zimbabwe but for the entire African continent in fighting against hunger”, the organisation had said at the time.

Tragically, Zimbabwe is today no longer the food security champion in part as a result of its well-meaning but poorly executed land reform programme in 2000.

But Mugabe was a gifted orator with a quick wit and memorable sound bites. The fight for land and self-rule became hallmarks of this tenure.

“We fought for our land, we have fought for our sovereignty, small as we are, we have won our independence and we are prepared to shed our blood…so Blair keep your England and let me keep my Zimbabwe. We are still exchanging blows with the British government,” Mugabe once said in a famous spat with the then British Prime Minister Tony Blair.

David Moore, researcher and political economist at the University of Johannesburg, said Mugabe manipulated the very deep factions and divisions both in Zimbabwean society and the political system to his advantage, starting from the formation of Zanu PF in 1963. Mugabe, Moore told IPS, had a knack of getting people to do his dirty work and finding allies when he was in trouble. For example, Mugabe made alliances with the war veterans in 1997 that pushed him onto the fast track land reform and triggered an economic meltdown that the country has battled to recover from.

“We cannot forget the Gukurahundi where he destroyed a political party and ended up with almost a genocide evolving from that, so l mean anybody who says he is a hero is really missing the point,” said Moore. Gukurahundi is remembered as a series of massacres on civilians and members and officials of Joshua Nkomo’s Zapu that were carried about by the Zimbabwe National Army.

Moore added that this ability to manipulate and work out and exacerbate these factions kept Mugabe in power and Zanu PF unified to a degree even though the unification was based on subterfuge, lying, deceit and playing groups against each other.

“It is a complicated and contradictory legacy how this shy, almost paranoid guy managed to stay on top of the heap and created also a culture of corruption, even though he would say, we need a leadership code,” Moore said.

The emergence of the political party MDC led by trade unionist Morgan Tsvangirai in 1999 unnerved Mugabe. Mugabe’s turned to violence in the elections in 2000, 2005 and 2008 of which the opposition claims to have won outright.

Violence in the form of beatings, torture and of late kidnappings became emblematic of Mugabe’s intolerance of dissenters. Individuals and civil society were not spared.

Human rights activist an Mugabe critic, Jenni Williams, was a victim. As the national coordinator of Women of Zimbabwe Arise (WOZA), she was arrested a number of times as the organisation continues to pursue a “non-violent struggle for socio-economic rights”.

“Unfortunately Mugabe’s leaves a legacy of repression and persecution which overshadows any good he may have done,” Williams said.

“I find it hard to mourn a man who caused me such personal persecution and suffering. Under his rule and orders I faced arbitrary arrest, inhuman and degrading treatment and constant persecution by prosecution. I am just one of many who suffered the mayhem of his rule and hatred of the people of Matabeleland leading to mass murder.”

Williams says the dictatorship system Mugabe nurtured is still in place and no real development and economic recovery can be achieved without serious reforms at all levels. Therefore poverty levels are systemically increased out of cruelty.

Burying Mugabe will close a chapter in the life of founding figure but the economic and political fortunes triggered from his rein are worsening.

It is not only food that Zimbabwe is in short supply of these days. Many other things, such as lack of health care and education, can be traced to the ill-informed policies that Mugabe enforced in securing his hold on power.

Tichaona Mhundu from Zimbabwe's Mashonaland East province. Millions of Zimbabweans say they are unsure about what 2014 holds for them. Credit: Jeffrey Moyo/IPS

By Jeffrey Moyo
HARARE, Jan 14 2014 (IPS)

Evelyn Mhasi, a qualified nurse, has not worked in her profession for the last seven years. Hiring in several Zimbabwean government sectors, including nursing, remains frozen despite colleges churning out skilled professionals each year. 

For many in this southern African nation, the passing of another year only brings with it a deepening dread of the future as many struggle without jobs. According to the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe, the country’s unemployment rate increased to 10.70 percent in 2011 from 4.20 percent in 2004.

However, the United Nations World Food Programme estimates that Zimbabwe’s unemployment rate is about 60 percent. While solid statistics are hard to come by, the vast majority of the country’s workforce is involved in the informal sector.

According to the National Statistics Office, Zimbabwe produces about 36,000 higher education graduates annually.

Mhasi, 29, closely followed the 2014 national budget announcement by Zimbabwe’s Finance Minister Patrick Chinamasa in December.“Zimbabwe faces both a crisis in the economy and in leadership after the rigged 2013 polls." -- Zimbabwe’s former finance minister, Tendai Biti

“I followed the proceedings optimistically, thinking that the government was going to unfreeze some posts for skilled people like me, but to no avail,” Mhasi told IPS.

“Another election may come in 2018 to find me still unemployed,” said Mhasi. “For me, 2014 already looks bleak and my hopes of finding employment are fast fading.”

Former finance minister and member of the opposition Movement for Democratic Change-Tsvangirai, Tendai Biti, told IPS: “Zimbabwe faces both a crisis in the economy and in leadership after the rigged 2013 polls. It’s easy to rig elections, but the economy is a totally different game. Sadly, we are on auto cruise back to the 2008 scenario.”

During 2008, when the country’s disputed election results resulted in a power-sharing government, Zimbabwe experienced an economic meltdown, with hyperinflation reaching 231 million percent.

The Confederation of Zimbabwe Industries, an organisation that develops and promotes business activities, says that a number of industries have already failed to re-open this year because of financial difficulties. However, it was unable to provide any figures.

Independent economist Kingston Nyakurukwa said ordinary people were surviving on shoestring budgets with many unsure about what 2014 held for them.

“Remember that last year’s bonuses for civil servants came in batches, which obviously rendered the entire civil service doubtful about what the future held for them in 2014, and even now people fear how they shall fare in the new year,” Nyakurukwa told IPS.

“With a 2014 national budget of over four billion dollars, but devoid of adequate revenue collections to meet the target, Zimbabwe heads towards an economic plunge this year,” Nyakurukwa added.

For Nyson Chimukwere, a fruit and vegetable vendor from Marondera, a town 80 kilometres east of Zimbabwe’s capital Harare, the year ahead looks gloomy.

“People no longer have enough money to spend,” Chimukwere, 44, told IPS. “These days I’m returning home with my pushcart laden with fruits and vegetables, which now rot at home.”

Chimukwere, a father of four, said his earnings have reduced by almost 75 percent.

“I’m afraid this year I may end up making nothing from my business. I used to take home about 50 dollars daily from my sales, but now things have taken a nasty turn – I take home 15 dollars or even far less,” said Chimukwere.

Rik Davison, who runs the Rik-Davy Glass Company, which employs over 800 people in Zimbabwe’s oldest town Masvingo, also dreads the year ahead.

“Lately [business] declined sharply, leaving us going for several days without making any sales, evident of the uncertainties shrouding 2014,” Davison told IPS, adding that because of this he has failed to pay his employees wages on time.

Davison said that his fears were worsened by the government’s insistence on implementing the Indigenisation and Economic Empowerment Act of 2007, which forces foreign-owned companies to cede 51 percent of their shares to local black entrepreneurs. Davison, who is white, has yet to cede his shares.

But Kudakwashe Bhasikiti, a politiburo member of the ruling Zimbabwe African National Union – Patriotic Front, believes that 2014 is set to be a prosperous year.

“We have nothing to fear here with the indigenisation policy in place, we are sure to give wealth to the black people of Zimbabwe,” Bhasikiti, who is the parliamentarian for Zimbabwe’s Mwenezi East constituency, told IPS.

Some economists predict that public employees may suffer the brunt of a government payroll shortage.

“With revenue collections massively dwindling, this year the Zimbabwean government may fail to sustainably remunerate the already poorly-paid civil servants, after it turned mum on increasing their wages in the budget announcement,” economic expert Agrippa Nhumwe told IPS.

A local banker told IPS on the condition of anonymity that hard times were imminent for Zimbabwe’s local banks.

“With cash shortages rocking indigenous banks here, hard times are set to roll this year, fuelling civilians’ fear in the face of an unpredictable government, which amid such circumstances may at any time re-introduce the dreaded Zimbabwean dollar dumped in 2008,” the banker told IPS.

The Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe, which at the height of the country’s economic meltdown was forced to issue a 100 trillion Zimbabwean dollar note, was forced to stop printing money and adopt a multi-currency regime.

For millions of Zimbabweans, it remains to be seen whether or not President Robert Mugabe’s government will succeed in manoeuvring through 2014.

Movement for Democratic Change – Tsvangirai rally on Jul. 29, 2013, two days before Zimbabwe’s election. Credit: Jeffrey Moyo/IPS

By Jeffrey Moyo
HARARE, Dec 23 2013 (IPS)

Losing the Jul. 31 polls in Zimbabwe may have been a heartrending experience for the country’s former prime minister, Morgan Tsvangirai, but a veiled succession struggle in his own party may prove the straw that breaks his political career.

Over 100 days after the Jul. 31 elections in this southern African nation, fanatical supporters of Zimbabwe’s opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) like Melford Gananda are fast withdrawing from politics."The MDC-T has not yet reached the end of the road in its life...but it has to stop the power wrangles and all the succession talk before it dislodges Mugabe." -- Claris Madhuku

But despite losing the controversial poll to long-time ruler Robert Mugabe, the MDC-Tsvangirai faction (MDC-T) leader appears determined to soldier on at the helm of the largest opposition party in the country.

“If the election was stolen, you cannot ask for leadership renewal unless you have other motivations; for somebody to ask me to abandon the responsibility and mandate l was given only two, three years ago is not only irresponsible on my part; it is a betrayal of the people’s expectations and aspirations,” Tsvangirai told journalists on Sept. 18 at his party headquarters in Harare.

Gananda, however, feels it is time Tsvangirai hands the party’s top spot to the MDC’s next generation.

“Tsvangirai has outlived his political popularity and he can’t turn back the hands of time; surely he must give way to the new crop of leaders in the party to keep it afloat,” Gananda told IPS.

“I’m one of the people who stood with Tsvangirai since 1999 when the MDC was formed and I have been hoping to see him in power for all these years, but disappointment followed disappointment as Tsvangirai fell victim to a litany of stolen polls. I can’t stick to him any longer,” said Gananda.

Independent political analyst Malvern Tigere agrees, and says the MDC-T leader has expired politically.

“The fact that the MDC-T leader has for three consecutive occasions suffered electoral defeat at the hands of a party that has been in power for more than three decades means that he [Tsvangirai] has arrived at his political expiration date and should replace himself with a new leader,” Tigere told IPS.

But MDC-T National Spokesperson Douglas Mwonzora begged to differ.

“MDC-T is the party that jolted Mugabe from political slumber and helped him realise that there were people out there who could challenge him and cause his fall from political supremacy and President Tsvangirai may be there to complete the struggle for change at the 2018 elections,” Mwonzora told IPS.

In 2000, during a period of waning popularity for Mugabe that coincided with the height of violent commercial land seizures here, the MDC triumphed in Zimbabwe’s parliamentary elections.

But in the 2002 presidential elections, Tsvangirai lost to Mugabe in a vote that was widely believed to be flawed.

Six years later, Tsvangirai won the presidential elections but could not garner enough votes to avoid a run-off marred by violence against his supporters by suspected Zanu-PF operatives. Mugabe eventually claimed unopposed victory after the MDC-T leader pulled out of the race.

A weak unity government brokered between President Mugabe and Tsvangirai followed until elections this year once again saw the MDC-T controversially losing to Mugabe.

According to Claris Madhuku, director of Platform for Youth Development, a democracy lobby group here, the MDC-T still has a future.

“Surely, the MDC-T has not yet reached the end of the road in its life, but what the party may need to do is to reposition itself in a way that would ensure it manages to unseat Mugabe strategically; it has to stop the power wrangles and all the succession talk before it dislodges Mugabe, with Tsvangirai as the face of the party,” Madhuku told IPS.

With growing calls from party subordinates for Tsvangirai to step down from the helm of MDC-T, fears abound amongst staunch supporters like Hillary Dzirutwe of Marondera in Zimbabwe’s Mashonaland East Province that Tsvangirai’s departure may mark the end of the MDC-T.

“Tsvangirai’s departure any time means the party may subsequently lose the electorate’s favour,” Dzirutwe told IPS.

But political analyst Zacharia Mushawatu feels both the ruling Zimbabwe African National Union Patriotic Front (Zanu-PF) and the MDC-T are seized with the problem of personality cult, which endangers their future existence.

“The ruling Zanu-PF and the MDC-T are being eroded by the personality cult challenge in which both parties believe they cannot do without their founding fathers, resulting in the parties’ succession headaches,” Mushawatu told IPS.

But Mushawatu believes that despite controversially losing to Mugabe on several occasions, Tsvangirai remains popular with his supporters in this southern African nation.

“If Tsvangirai leaves now, his party will be torn into several factions, which may ultimately mark its eventual demise, consequently handing perpetual political hegemony to the ruling Zanu-PF,” said Mushawatu.

And in a move that would likely widen fissures in the MDC-T, Elias Mudzuri, an executive MDC-T member and parliamentarian for Harare’s Warren Park constituency, is being widely tipped as a successor to Tsvangirai.

Party insiders here say under Mudzuri’s leadership, the MDC-T wouldn’t fall apart as many have anticipated.

“Mudzuri is quite organised and methodical in his approach to politics and surely MDC-T won’t fall apart under his leadership; Mudzuri also commands respect,” said a top MDC-T official who, fearing reprisals, requested anonymity during an interview with IPS.

Mudzuri, meanwhile, has warmed to the milling succession gossip.

“We respect people’s demands; if they say let there be new party leadership, then so be it,” Mudzuri told IPS, insisting the 2016 MDC-T congress will solve the succession puzzle.

Independent political analyst Langton Maramba says changing MDC-T leadership could give give the ruling Zanu-PF more leverage against it.

“Installing a new leader for the party now against the long-time ruling Zanu-PF may be too late and may render MDC-T popularity waning at the 2018 polls here,” Maramba told IPS.

With this in mind, Maramba says the future of the opposition MDC-T hangs in the balance.

The million-dollar question, then, is can the centre hold for Zimbabwe’s main opposition party come elections in 2018, or will things fall apart before then?

Political and economic analysts say that a new government under the Movement for Democratic Change led by Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai (MDC-T) is the best solution for Zimbabwe’s economic future. Credit: Trevor Davies/IPS

By Jeffrey Moyo
HARARE, Aug 1 2013 (IPS)

Zimbabwean analysts say that it will be historical if President Robert Mugabe, who has ruled this country for 33 years, loses the country’s presidential election to his long-time rival Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai and relinquishes power.

A day before the election, Mugabe had told reporters at State House that if he loses he would concede defeat.

On Wednesday, Jul. 31, Zimbabweans in Harare, the capital, woke up at midnight eager to cast their ballots in the general election. In most towns across Zimbabwe, voters began queuing very early on Wednesday morning, enduring the chilly weather in order to vote.

Many, like 32-year-old Loveness Mbiza, a fruit and vegetable vendor from Harare’s Machipisa high-density suburb, feel this election will bring an improved economic environment.“There has never been such voting excitement here save perhaps for 1980 at independence and this means something much bigger is set to happen here and people want development to kick-start under a new regime.” -- voter and local businessman Jabulani Gumbo

“I have lived under constant surveillance from brutal police in Mugabe’s government who have always chased me from one point to the other, often accusing me of selling my wares at undesignated points in the city, but without providing me with alternatives,” Mbiza told IPS.

“I woke up soon after midnight to be on the queue here so that I could cast my vote early and go back to attend to my vending business. My wish is to see my vote being respected because I know most people are suffering just like me and wish to see President Mugabe shown the door when the results are announced,” added Mbiza.

But Claris Madhuku, a political analyst and director for Platform for Youth Development, a democracy lobby group in Zimbabwe, told IPS that voters should not put their full trust in the new political dispensation that may emerge after this election.

“There is excessive excitement from voters and too much optimism is being invested in a [Movement for Democratic Change-Tsvangirai] MDC-T government that they think will be born out of the elections. But they should allow any dispensation to settle down and gradually manoeuvre its way to rescue this country from its long economic crisis,” Madhuku said.

Zimbabwe is still recovering from an economic meltdown, based largely on Mugabe’s controversial policies. There have also been allegations of widespread corruption and stealing from the state’s coffers by Mugabe and other high-ranking officials within his party.

Between 2003 and 2009, this southern African nation’s year on year inflation was reported as 231 percent. According to the Consumer Council of Zimbabwe, 85 companies closed down in Harare last year and over 100 shut down in Bulawayo between 2009 and 2013. Unemployment is high, with most people being forced to work in the informal sector.

Independent political analyst Rashwit Mkundu said he foresees the country becoming an economic “powerhouse” under Tsvangarai’s leadership, if he wins this election.

“There is certainly going to be rapid economic recovery in Zimbabwe if Tsvangirai is announced winner of this election. Zimbabwe will fast emerge as an economic powerhouse of the rest of the African continent, possibly overtaking South Africa in terms of economic growth,” Mkundu told IPS.

Mugabe and some of his party hardliners in Zimbabwe Africa National Union-Patriotic Front (Zanu–PF) are under economic sanctions from Western nations for violating human rights. However, in March the European Union suspended most of its sanctions, though Mugabe and a number of his followers remain on the list.

Analysts think this election could be the Zanu-PF leader’s last race before Mugabe disappears from the political scene, as he turns 90 years old in six months’ time.

Chairperson for the Council for Social Workers in Zimbabwe, Philip Bohwasi, told IPS that a victory by Tsvangirai would result in a stampede of investors to the country. A number pulled out after Mugabe implemented the Indigenisation and Economic Empowerment Act of 2007. It states that foreign-owned companies are required to sell a 51 percent stake to locals to stimulate economic growth.

“Tsvangirai warms up very well to nations from the developed world from which most investors come. His victory in this election will spark a scramble for investment chances from investors abroad eager to put their investments here,” Bohwasi told IPS.

But Masimba Kuchera, an independent media analyst in Harare, told IPS that ordinary people should be careful not to build their hopes on impulsive policies pencilled in political party manifestos.

“Yes, I know most people who have voted in this election anticipate drastic changes from the MDC-T, which they widely believe will massively ride to victory when election results are announced. But what has convinced them to so overwhelmingly rally behind MDC-T are mere policies penned in the party’s campaign manifesto, which may be an exaggerated piece of paper designed to lure voters,” Kuchera said.

Although the Zanu-PF government, which entered a coalition arrangement with the two formations of the MDC, stands widely accused of being the architect of the country’s economic crisis, many, like 25-year-old Donemore Dziva, a jobless college graduate with a diploma in marketing, hopes for a Zanu-PF victory.

“I didn’t wake up so early in the morning to come and waste my vote on MDC-T because I didn’t see anything worthwhile it did for young jobless people like me during its tenure in the coalition government. I just hope we shall have President Mugabe back when the results shall be announced and let him finish the economic empowerment of locals here,” Dziva told IPS.

Other political analysts here say any win by Mugabe in this election would spell disaster for Zimbabwe.

“Any win that favours Mugabe in this election will be contestable and there is really nothing new that Mugabe has in store to warrant a justified return to the number one job in the land. His return will only further deepen the country’s economic crisis considering that Mugabe has not been successful in mending his dented relations with the rich European nations,” an independent political analyst, Blessing Vava, told IPS.

Harare businessman and owner of a fleet of trucks, Jabulani Gumbo, 56, thinks the large voter turnout is a signal of future great economic strides for Zimbabwe.

“There has never been such voting excitement here, save perhaps for 1980 at independence, and this means something much bigger is set to happen here. People want development to kick-start under a new regime,” Gumbo told IPS. There are no official figures yet available about the number of Zimbabweans who cast their ballots on Wednesday. Initial reports, however, show that the vote was largely a peaceful one.

Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai told an estimated crowd of 40,000 supporters at a rally in Harare’s Freedom Square on Jul. 29 that his party had not being able to verify the names on the voters’ roll. Credit: Jeffrey Moyo/IPS

By Jeffrey Moyo
HARARE, Jul 31 2013 (IPS)

“We definitely can’t miss this grand chance to cast our vote. It’s like Zimbabwe is just gaining independence; the excitement to see a new government coming into power is just incredible and we hope we get a new Zimbabwe rolling again,” 38-year-old Mildred Saungweme from Harare’s Hatfield suburb, told IPS.

On Wednesday, Jul. 31, the country is set to choose a president. It will be the third time that Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai, leader of the Movement for Democratic Change-Tsvangirai (MDC-T), has challenged President Robert Mugabe for power. Mugabe, leader of the Zimbabwe Africa National Union-Patriotic Front (Zanu–PF), has been in office for 33 years.

However, ahead of Wednesday’s vote, election observers from the African Union (AU) and the Southern African Development Community (SADC) had doubts whether the poll would be credible.

“I’m worried [that the] voters’ current excitement may be hampered by certain forces determined to steal this election,” an AU observer speaking on condition of anonymity, told IPS.“The risk of escalating violence and other human rights abuses after the election results are announced remains high because the infrastructure of violence remains intact." -- Human Rights Watch director for Southern Africa, Tiseke Kasambala

Hours before polling stations across this southern African nation opened at 5am, voters were still struggling to find out where they could verify their names on the electoral roll.

Those who knew where they would vote, like 73-year-old Tambudzai Gavi from Harare’s Mabvuku suburb, said they were willing to wait overnight in queues in order to cast their ballots.

“We have had one party, Zanu–PF, which has failed to deliver its promises for 33 years. I will sleep in the queue to make sure nobody will have an excuse to deny me the chance to cast my vote,” Gavi told IPS. Results are expected no later than Aug. 5.

The Zimbabwe Electoral Commission (ZEC) has been criticised by political parties and civil society organisations for failing to make the electoral roll available before the polls. There are an estimated 6.4 million registered voters, but concerns have been raised about the number of dead still on the roll.

According to the Electoral Act, the ZEC is required to provide all contesting political parties and observers who request it either a printed or electronic copy of the electoral roll.

“We wonder how names on the voters’ roll are going to be verified if the electronic voters roll has still not been made public,” Tawanda Chimhini, director of Elections Resource Centre, an independent elections organisation in Zimbabwe, told IPS.

Tsvangirai told an estimated crowd of 40,000 supporters at a rally in Harare’s Freedom Square on Jul. 29 that his party had not being able to verify the names on the voters’ roll. “About a day before the elections, ZEC has not presented us with the electronic voters’ roll, something which renders questionable its credibility to run this election,” Tsvangirai said.

International rights group Human Rights Watch’s (HRW) Africa director, Daniel Bekele, told IPS that as legal and institutional reforms, including those to reform the security sector and the ZEC, had not been implemented, it did not create a space for free and fair elections.

“In spite of the difficult human rights environment, the elections are going ahead as a critical test both for Zimbabwe and the regional observers, SADC and AU in particular, to demonstrate genuine commitment to reflect the will of Zimbabwean people,” Bekele said.

“If the elections are rigged, Zimbabwe risks plunging into a complicated political crisis and the risk of violence and other human rights abuses is high,” added Bekele.

Already, ahead of the election there have been reports of violence, abductions and intimidation. IPS reported claims that local traditional leaders were cautioning villagers against voting for the MDC-T to avoid post-election violence by Zanu-PF. There were also reports of suspected Zanu-PF officials seizing voters’ identity cards.

On Jul. 30 reports by local media stated that riot police had been deployed to potential trouble areas in central Zimbabwe.

HRW’s director for Southern Africa, Tiseke Kasambala, told IPS that it would be difficult for voters to cast their ballots freely in light of these abuses.

“Zimbabwe’s unity government, consisting of the former ruling Zanu-PF and the two MDC factions, has failed to implement legal and institutional reforms to address various political, institutional and human rights issues ahead of elections,” Kasambala said.

She said that although the new Zimbabwean constitution, which was signed into law in May, had implemented some reforms; these were insufficient to level the political playing field as there has been no repeal or amendment of repressive legislation.

The country still needs to amend repressive laws like the Access to Information and Protection of Privacy Act, which stipulates that journalists should register annually with the Zimbabwe Media and Information Commission, and the Public Order and Security Act, which criminalises the reporting of falsehoods and leaves journalists open to litigation.

“The risk of escalating violence and other human rights abuses after the election results are announced remains high because the infrastructure of violence remains intact, and there has been no accountability for previous human rights abuses, including the 2008 political violence,” added Kasambala.

In 2008, following the disputed election that saw Mugabe hold on to power, violence erupted across the country. In a 2011 report titled Perpetual Fear: Impunity and Cycles of Violence in Zimbabwe, HRW stated that Zanu-PF had been responsible for abuses that led to the deaths of 200 people, and the beating and torture of 5,000 more.

Despite this, MDC-T supporters were excited ahead of the vote.

“We know Tsvangirai is going to win this election and form a new democratic government to relegate President Robert Mugabe to the dustbin of history,” 31-year-old Patricia Hove, a staunch MDC-T supporter, told IPS.

However, most Zanu-PF hardliners claim that a MDC-T victory means the country runs the risk of falling into an era of neo-colonialism.

“If MDC-T wins this election, we run the risk of falling into the hands of an indirect leadership of Britain again because this party is a puppet of Britain and America, countries which feed it money to garner support from ordinary Zimbabweans,” Goodson Nguni, a well know Zanu-PF leader, told IPS.

Meanwhile, 36-year-old unemployed civil engineer Nigel Samuriwo was looking forward to casting his vote. Samuriwo graduated 13 years ago, but he has not been able to find a job since.

“I’m so excited about this election. I’m so optimistic it will bring change in my life and a job I have never had under Mugabe’s government, which sparked the closure of several companies,” Samuriwo told IPS.

Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai at a party rally on Jul. 29, 2013, two days before Zimbabwe’s election. Economists say that it does not matter who wins the country’s Jul. 31 election as none of the political parties may be able to reverse the country’s economic meltdown. Courtesy: Jeffrey Moyo

By Jeffrey Moyo
HARARE, Jul 30 2013 (IPS)

At a recent campaign rally in Zimbabwe’s Midlands Province, Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai pledged to establish rural-based companies to create employment. It was a promise that appealed to 34-year-old sociologist Agnes Ngwenya who graduated from the University of Zimbabwe 10 years ago, but has not yet found work.

She broke into song and ecstatic ululation, as she jumped and gyrated with optimism, waving a red flag – a distinctive trademark of the Movement for Democratic Change – Tsvangirai (MDC–T).

MDC–T promises to create a 100-billion-dollar economy by 2018, anchored by foreign direct investment. Meanwhile the splinter MDC–Ncube, led by Professor Welshman Ncube, pins its campaign on devolution, or decentralising governance.

“Believing that the Zimbabwe Africa National Union-Patriotic Front (Zanu–PF) 2013 campaign manifesto will one day transform the lives of many suffering Zimbabweans after the party’s three decades in power is a definite impossibility and absolutely untrue,” Ngwenya tells IPS.“We strongly believe that we no longer need a government of national unity, because it hampers our economic growth." -- Zimbabwe National Chamber of Commerce president Davison Norupiri

Zimbabweans go to the polls on Wednesday Jul. 31, amid reports of intimidation, threats of violence and abductions. But economists here say that it does not matter whether Tsvangirai’s MDC–T or President Robert Mugabe’s Zanu–PF wins the election, neither will be able to reverse Zimbabwe’s economic meltdown anytime soon.

Economist Kingston Nyakurukwa says that both parties have unrealistic plans for solving Zimbabwe’s economic problems.

“While I agree that MDC–T seems to have a better plan to rescue the country from a decade-long economic crisis, generally manifestos pencilled by the parties set to lock horns at this years’ elections are unrealistic, exaggerated and reflect the ambitiousness of the parties racing to govern this country rather than the pragmatic means to arrest the country’s economic woes,” Nyakurukwa tells IPS.

Between 2003 and 2009, this Southern African nation’s year on year inflation was reported as 231 percent. The Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe was forced to issue a 100 trillion Zimbabwean dollar note and eventually the central bank stopped printing money in 2009, opting to adopt a multi-currency regime. Not only that, unemployment is ridiculously high. A 2009 report by the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs stated that the country’s unemployment rate was 94 percent. A great majority now work in the informal sector.

Much of the country’s economic meltdown has been blamed on Mugabe’s policies, which include a controversial land reform programme that began in 2000 and saw over 300,000 people forcefully occupy land previously owned by an estimated 4,000 white commercial farmers.

Another controversial policy area is foreign investment.

Though for 21-year-old Evelyn Chatsi from Mwenezi district, about 144km southwest of Zimbabwe’s oldest town of Masvingo, it is not controversial at all. She feels it is a solution for her improved economic future.

“I know Zanu–PF will not betray young people. The party crafted the indigenisation policy to empower youths like us and come Jul. 31, our lives will be changed, with President Robert Mugabe back at the helm of leadership,” Chatsi tells IPS.

Movement for Democratic Change – Tsvangirai rally on Jul. 29, 2013, two days before Zimbabwe’s election. Credit: Jeffrey Moyo/IPS

Under the Indigenisation and Economic Empowerment Act of 2007, foreign-owned companies are required to sell a 51 percent stake to locals to stimulate economic growth.

But some financers fear losing their investments through this policy. Independent economic analyst John Robertson says it has scared away investors and led to several companies closing down after being taken over by locals.

“With indigenisation, we have attracted very little new investments here and caused closure of several companies that offered employment to many people here,” Robertson tells IPS.

According to the Consumer Council of Zimbabwe, 85 companies closed down in Harare last year and over 100 shut down in Bulawayo between 2009 and 2013.

Araj Mouri, a Zimbabwean-based Indian businessman, tells IPS: “We definitely can’t trust a party whose aim is to have its hands on our investments without bringing its own capital. We are therefore watching this election drama with scepticism.”

Claris Madhuku, director of Platform for Youth Development, a democracy lobby group, agrees that Zanu–PF’s indigenisation and economic empowerment policy has failed and says that is has caused “mayhem in the country, with many people linked to it scrambling to grab foreign-owned companies.”

“While MDC-T’s manifesto is reasonable, [it is] too ambitious, which may also be difficult to implement. The political parties want power; they don’t mean what they say,” he tells IPS.

Charles Msipa, president of the Confederation of Zimbabwe Industry, says Zimbabwe really needs a government with a consistent policy framework that addresses the country’s economic opportunities and challenges.

“But whether that policy environment is delivered by a coalition or single-party government, it’s for the electorate to decide,” Msipa tells IPS.

However, the Zimbabwe National Chamber of Commerce president Davison Norupiri says another coalition government would stifle economic growth. After the violence that followed Zimbabwe’s disputed 2008 election, Zanu–PF and MDC–T signed a pact to form a government of national unity with elections this year.

“We strongly believe that we no longer need a government of national unity, because it hampers our economic growth. With our [unity government] here, we haven’t moved much in terms of economic development,” Norupiri tells IPS.

Mike Milton, who runs a plastics manufacturing company in Harare, is also not sure that either party has a concrete solution to save the economy.

“Both MDC-T and Zanu-PF election manifestos lack pragmatic means to arrest the country’s decade long economic woes. They are not clear on how they aim to practically restore investor confidence,” Milton tells IPS.

“But if we have another disputed election, another coalition government may be unwelcome, which will throw this country into a serious and irretrievable economic morass,” he says.

But Prosper Chitambara, an economist with the Labour and Economic Development Research Institute Zimbabwe, an independent economic research think tank, says he doubts that Zanu–PF’s manifesto would yield any positive changes if the party won the elections.

“In its manifesto, Zanu-PF carries the same old story and I don’t think they will change the way they have been doing things for the past [three decades] even if they may win this election. What they are saying in their campaign manifesto only helps to weaken the value of the national assets and in this case, Zanu-PF’s manifesto is more ambitious than the MDC-T one,” Chitambara tells IPS.

“But I think under an MDC government, we shall see numerous positive transformations and developments hence people have so much expectations,” says Chitambara.

An African Union election observer speaking to IPS in Harare on condition of anonymity says political uncertainty has been the biggest factor in crippling Zimbabwe’s bid to grow its economy.