Movement for Democratic Change – Tsvangirai rally on Jul. 29, 2013, two days before Zimbabwe’s election. Credit: Jeffrey Moyo/IPS

By Jeffrey Moyo
HARARE, Dec 23 2013 (IPS)

Losing the Jul. 31 polls in Zimbabwe may have been a heartrending experience for the country’s former prime minister, Morgan Tsvangirai, but a veiled succession struggle in his own party may prove the straw that breaks his political career.

Over 100 days after the Jul. 31 elections in this southern African nation, fanatical supporters of Zimbabwe’s opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) like Melford Gananda are fast withdrawing from politics."The MDC-T has not yet reached the end of the road in its life...but it has to stop the power wrangles and all the succession talk before it dislodges Mugabe." -- Claris Madhuku

But despite losing the controversial poll to long-time ruler Robert Mugabe, the MDC-Tsvangirai faction (MDC-T) leader appears determined to soldier on at the helm of the largest opposition party in the country.

“If the election was stolen, you cannot ask for leadership renewal unless you have other motivations; for somebody to ask me to abandon the responsibility and mandate l was given only two, three years ago is not only irresponsible on my part; it is a betrayal of the people’s expectations and aspirations,” Tsvangirai told journalists on Sept. 18 at his party headquarters in Harare.

Gananda, however, feels it is time Tsvangirai hands the party’s top spot to the MDC’s next generation.

“Tsvangirai has outlived his political popularity and he can’t turn back the hands of time; surely he must give way to the new crop of leaders in the party to keep it afloat,” Gananda told IPS.

“I’m one of the people who stood with Tsvangirai since 1999 when the MDC was formed and I have been hoping to see him in power for all these years, but disappointment followed disappointment as Tsvangirai fell victim to a litany of stolen polls. I can’t stick to him any longer,” said Gananda.

Independent political analyst Malvern Tigere agrees, and says the MDC-T leader has expired politically.

“The fact that the MDC-T leader has for three consecutive occasions suffered electoral defeat at the hands of a party that has been in power for more than three decades means that he [Tsvangirai] has arrived at his political expiration date and should replace himself with a new leader,” Tigere told IPS.

But MDC-T National Spokesperson Douglas Mwonzora begged to differ.

“MDC-T is the party that jolted Mugabe from political slumber and helped him realise that there were people out there who could challenge him and cause his fall from political supremacy and President Tsvangirai may be there to complete the struggle for change at the 2018 elections,” Mwonzora told IPS.

In 2000, during a period of waning popularity for Mugabe that coincided with the height of violent commercial land seizures here, the MDC triumphed in Zimbabwe’s parliamentary elections.

But in the 2002 presidential elections, Tsvangirai lost to Mugabe in a vote that was widely believed to be flawed.

Six years later, Tsvangirai won the presidential elections but could not garner enough votes to avoid a run-off marred by violence against his supporters by suspected Zanu-PF operatives. Mugabe eventually claimed unopposed victory after the MDC-T leader pulled out of the race.

A weak unity government brokered between President Mugabe and Tsvangirai followed until elections this year once again saw the MDC-T controversially losing to Mugabe.

According to Claris Madhuku, director of Platform for Youth Development, a democracy lobby group here, the MDC-T still has a future.

“Surely, the MDC-T has not yet reached the end of the road in its life, but what the party may need to do is to reposition itself in a way that would ensure it manages to unseat Mugabe strategically; it has to stop the power wrangles and all the succession talk before it dislodges Mugabe, with Tsvangirai as the face of the party,” Madhuku told IPS.

With growing calls from party subordinates for Tsvangirai to step down from the helm of MDC-T, fears abound amongst staunch supporters like Hillary Dzirutwe of Marondera in Zimbabwe’s Mashonaland East Province that Tsvangirai’s departure may mark the end of the MDC-T.

“Tsvangirai’s departure any time means the party may subsequently lose the electorate’s favour,” Dzirutwe told IPS.

But political analyst Zacharia Mushawatu feels both the ruling Zimbabwe African National Union Patriotic Front (Zanu-PF) and the MDC-T are seized with the problem of personality cult, which endangers their future existence.

“The ruling Zanu-PF and the MDC-T are being eroded by the personality cult challenge in which both parties believe they cannot do without their founding fathers, resulting in the parties’ succession headaches,” Mushawatu told IPS.

But Mushawatu believes that despite controversially losing to Mugabe on several occasions, Tsvangirai remains popular with his supporters in this southern African nation.

“If Tsvangirai leaves now, his party will be torn into several factions, which may ultimately mark its eventual demise, consequently handing perpetual political hegemony to the ruling Zanu-PF,” said Mushawatu.

And in a move that would likely widen fissures in the MDC-T, Elias Mudzuri, an executive MDC-T member and parliamentarian for Harare’s Warren Park constituency, is being widely tipped as a successor to Tsvangirai.

Party insiders here say under Mudzuri’s leadership, the MDC-T wouldn’t fall apart as many have anticipated.

“Mudzuri is quite organised and methodical in his approach to politics and surely MDC-T won’t fall apart under his leadership; Mudzuri also commands respect,” said a top MDC-T official who, fearing reprisals, requested anonymity during an interview with IPS.

Mudzuri, meanwhile, has warmed to the milling succession gossip.

“We respect people’s demands; if they say let there be new party leadership, then so be it,” Mudzuri told IPS, insisting the 2016 MDC-T congress will solve the succession puzzle.

Independent political analyst Langton Maramba says changing MDC-T leadership could give give the ruling Zanu-PF more leverage against it.

“Installing a new leader for the party now against the long-time ruling Zanu-PF may be too late and may render MDC-T popularity waning at the 2018 polls here,” Maramba told IPS.

With this in mind, Maramba says the future of the opposition MDC-T hangs in the balance.

The million-dollar question, then, is can the centre hold for Zimbabwe’s main opposition party come elections in 2018, or will things fall apart before then?

President Mugabe’s policies have been a major blow to agriculture, which was the bedrock of the economy. Credit: Jeffrey Moyo/IPS.

By Jeffrey Moyo
HARARE, Aug 28 2013 (IPS)

For President Robert Mugabe to defeat the opposition in the Jul. 31 election by hook or by crook may have been a walk in the park, but beating the economic crisis will be another matter. The stock market fell 11 percent the day he was sworn in, the biggest fall in a day since 2009.

Fears are rising that the policies of the ruling Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF) will further scare away foreign investors.

“Zanu-PF’s current policy mix is in conflict with the needs of investors, and at present Zimbabwe is the least attractive investment destination worldwide,” John Robertson, director of the Robertson Economic Information Services told IPS.“Any proposition that an economic turnaround can be launched by the new government will depend upon the speed at which improvements can be brought about in the population’s purchasing-power, depending upon a recovery in employment.”

“Any proposition that an economic turnaround can be launched by the new government will depend upon the speed at which improvements can be brought about in the population’s purchasing-power, depending upon a recovery in employment.”

According to Zimbabwe’s Indigenisation Act of 2007, foreign-owned companies are forced to cede 51 percent of their shares to local people. But economists warn that the indigenisation policy is driving investors away.

“Foreign investors are obliged to bring in 100 percent of the capital, bear 100 percent of the risk, provide 100 percent of the technology, and in turn settle for 49 percent of the equity and pay taxes,” independent economist Kingston Nyakurukwa told IPS.

Mugabe’s policies have been a particular blow to agriculture. Agriculture provided employment for 60-70 percent of the population before the 2000 land reform programme that enforced greater local ownership of farms.

Agriculture used to contribute 15-19 percent to the country’s annual Gross Domestic Product before the reforms. “President Mugabe presided over the seizure of productive commercial farms, rendering a blow to agricultural production. And when agriculture performs poorly, the rest of the economy suffers,” independent economist Agrippa Ndlovu told IPS.

Zimbabwe is now a net importer of agricultural products.

“Industrial and agricultural exports fell drastically between 2000 and 2008 owing to unfortunate political developments, particularly the 2000 commercial farm seizures, followed by a series of disputed elections between 2002 and 2008,” economist Tony Lewis told IPS.

Zimbabwe has had no grain reserves for more than a decade following the eviction of white farmers, despite promises by Mugabe of a return to food self-sufficiency in 2010.

Zimbabwe’s economy shrank significantly after 2000, resulting in widespread poverty and 80 percent unemployment.

Zimbabwe currently exports precious metals like gold, platinum and ferroalloys, and also cotton, textiles and clothing, and tobacco, but to limited trade partners due to sanctions imposed by western countries.

Presenting the 2013 mid-term fiscal policy review on Jul.10, Zimbabwe’s finance minister in the former government Tendai Biti said the earlier expectation of 5.6 percent growth by this year end would not now be possible. The estimate has been reduced to 3.4 percent.

Investment in this Southern African nation rose after the formation of the coalition government in 2008, resulting in foreign direct investment rising from around 50 million dollars to nearly 400 million dollars between 2008 and 2011. But now there are new uncertainties.

“I am really not sure what to do now because President Mugabe may go ahead with his moves to indigenise the remaining foreign-owned companies; I am really scared of his economic policies,” 53-year-old Jamah Fakuh from India who trades in glass told IPS.

“With indigenisation, Zanu-PF aims to transfer the majority share of any business operations to black Zimbabweans without financial compensation, which favours Mugabe loyalists,” economist Admire Dziva told IPS.

Godfrey Kanyenze, director of the Labour and Economic Development Research Institute of Zimbabwe, a non-governmental economic consultancy organisation, said huge challenges lie ahead for Mugabe’s government.

“With the time for empty promises and electioneering now over, there is a crisis of expectation; promises were made to the people and it is now payback time. Poverty is endemic and there are massive debts of over 10 billion dollars that need to be addressed,” Kanyenze told IPS.

Hyperinflation had made the country’s currency almost worthless in 2008. The economy stabilised in 2009 after conversion to the dollar as currency, and the formation of a coalition government between Zanu-PF and two opposition formations of the Movement for Democratic Change.

Under the four-year coalition government Zimbabwe’s economy grew nine percent in 2010 and 2011, and five percent in 2012. Not everyone is convinced that Mugabe’s government can bring an upswing back after the further decline expected this year.
“Economic growth may wane if there is no political resolution which identifies a legitimate regime,” economist Christopher Mugaga told IPS.