Kenneth Kerr, climate meteorologist at the Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Service, explains how computer modeling is used to provide agrometeorology services to farmers. Credit: Jewel Fraser/IPS

By Jewel Fraser
PORT OF SPAIN, Dec 31 2013 (IPS)

In the southwest peninsula of Cedros, one of Trinidad’s driest areas, Jenson Alexander grows the cocoa used for many years by the British chocolate giant Cadbury.

Dry conditions mean that he frequently faces bush fires, a challenge compounded by increasing climate variability that makes it difficult to predict when an extended dry season, and the fires that accompany it, are likely to occur.“We are dealing with a science that has large uncertainties and 10 days ahead is very long in terms of how the atmosphere may or may not change." -- Kenneth Kerr

So in May, when the Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Service (TTMS) began issuing weather bulletins specifically to keep farmers updated on expected weather conditions, he found a measure of relief.

“Before, it was difficult when you were expecting to have rain and [instead] you were having drought…and bush fires,” Alexander told IPS.

The 10-day bulletins for farmers that the TTMS issues have considerably reduced the uncertainty, he said. “Now we have updates, we can plan better, if we are having an extended dry season. So bush fires won’t affect us” as they did before, he said.

Kenneth Kerr, a climate meteorologist at TTMS, told IPS that “cocoa farmers have indicated that they found the bulletins very useful.”

Trinidad boasts some of the finest cocoa in the world and the makers of Cadbury chocolate once owned and operated a cocoa estate in the island.

Kerr is one of two meteorologists in Trinidad and Tobago who produce 10-day forecasts geared specifically to the farming community. The other, Arlene Aaron-Morrison, is a trained agrometeorologist as well as a climatologist.

Aaron-Morrison explains that the work of a meteorologist differs somewhat from that of an agrometeorologist. “The focus is different,” she said. “A meteorologist focuses on aviation meteorology while the agrometeorologist focuses on agriculture.”

The decision to provide climate forecasts specifically for farmers came out of a joint initiative launched in 2010 by the Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology, the World Meteorological Organisation, the Caribbean Agricultural Research and Development Institute, and the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services of 10 Caribbean countries.

This initiative is known as the Caribbean Agrometeorological Initiative (CAMI).

Its objective is to increase and sustain farm productivity in the Caribbean region “through improved applications of weather and climate information using an integrated and coordinated approach.”

CAMI’s website states that support for agriculture is a priority since the  sector not only contributes to food security but also helps to reduce poverty and stimulate economic growth.

CAMI acknowledges that, “The Caribbean region is vulnerable to a wide range of natural hazards, ranging from catastrophic events such as floods, droughts, and tropical cyclones to pests and diseases in plants, animals and humans.

“Especially in poor rural areas, these disasters cause much suffering, infrastructure and environmental damage, aggravate food insecurity and slow down or even reverse development gains.

“Climate variability, climate change and land degradation are intimately linked and are generating unexpected effects, e.g., an increased occurrence of extreme weather conditions in the Caribbean region,” states CAMI’s website.

Against this background, a number of meteorologists around the region have been trained in agrometeorology. They now provide regular updates to farmers regarding the weather conditions expected in the days or month ahead.

“Those updates are very beneficial,” Alexander said. “Now, we can plan our programme better in the field, whether it is harvesting or planting.”

Kerr explained that the TTMS provides both a two to three-page Agromet Forecast and a four to five-page Agromet Bulletin. The forecast gives a 10-day prediction of rainfall and temperature for the north, south, east, west and central areas of Trinidad and for Tobago, with a brief summary at the end as to how these expected conditions will affect the work of farmers.

The Agromet Bulletin discusses at length the preceding 10 days’ weather, as well as  the next 10 days’ forecast. It includes data on wind speed and expected humidity. It also analyses in detail how farmers can best respond to the expected climate conditions.

Both the forecast and the bulletin provide the forecasts in terms of percentage probability.

“We are dealing with a science that has large uncertainties and 10 days ahead is very long in terms of how the atmosphere may or may not change. That is why we use probability,” Kerr said.

The forecast and bulletin provide definitions of the terms used and of the likelihood associated with a particular percentage probability. A probability greater than 70 percent means there is a very good chance that the forecast will prove true.

Kerr added, “The further away from the day the forecast was made, the less accurate it is. Ten days is the maximum for any degree of credibility.”

Kerr explained how farmers may use the forecast: If two of the 10 days are expected to be wet, the weather will hamper fieldwork. On the other hand, “it provides an opportunity for the farmer to harvest rainwater or may reduce the need for irrigation during those two days. Or it may act as a buffer for drier days or reduce heat stress for newly planted or germinating crops.”

Such analysis on how farmers can work with the impending weather conditions is routinely provided in the Agromet Bulletins.

The forecasts are done through computer modelling. “We use several models to look at what is happening and to see what is most likely to occur. Then using our subjective judgement based on our training and experience along with the climatology of the various locations, we arrive at a forecast for the different districts,” Kerr explained.

The findings are supplied to farmers through e-mail, the media, and one-on-one, said Aaron-Morrison.

The bulletin and forecast are also made available through agricultural extension offices and other agriculture-based organisations, including the Agricultural Society of Trinidad and Tobago, the Caribbean Agricultural Research and Development Institute and the Tobago House of Assembly.

Ramgopaul Roop explains how sustainable farming, including conservation farming and a water harvesting system, has allowed him to run a successful business despite unpredictable climate conditions. Credit: Jewel Fraser/IPS

By Jewel Fraser
PORT OF SPAIN, Trinidad, Nov 25 2013 (IPS)

Even as weather extremes bedevil Caribbean farmers, Ramgopaul Roop has turned his three-acre fruit farm into a showcase for how to beat climate change.

His conservation farming methods include water harvesting and growing lemon grass as mulch. Since the grass is also a weed, it discourages the growth of other harmful weeds without the use of herbicides.“Farmers always asked, ‘When do we plant? When is the rain going to start?’” -- Dr. Leslie Simpson

“Because of the system using lemon grass and pommecythere trees growing lower than the lime trees, my land is covered with vegetation, so that we can adapt to climate changes,” Roop told IPS.

“If it is hot, we have this natural mulch under the crop. If it is raining, it helps to reduce the soil erosion,” he explained.

Roop is now the regional administrator for the Caribbean Agribusiness Association (CABA), an organisation mandated by the 15-member regional grouping Caricom to work with regional farmers’ groups to find agroprocessing opportunities.

CABA serves as a collective voice for farmers in the region through advocacy and assistance with trade negotiations.

Roop, who has farmed in Trinidad for 25 years, said that compliance with a country’s environmental regulations is key to success. This has proven true in the case of his own property, Rocrops Agrotech, which is used as a model farm by Trinidad and Tobago’s Environmental Management Authority.

His strategies have enabled Rocrops to supply agroprocessors with 10,000–12,000 limes weekly, 52 weeks a year, over the past five years.

“If farmers adopted the methods that I have implemented, they would be able to develop small holder farms to produce year-round to increase their level of production so that they could fulfil commitments to processing facilities,” he said.

“Small-holding farms can be developed into a sustainable unit that can be passed on to the next generation,” Roop added.

Across the region, Caribbean farmers are seeking reliable climate data to help them make better decisions when planning their crops. To meet this demand, the European Union and African, Caribbean and Pacific group (ACP) are training meteorologists to interact directly with farmers to provide accurate, timely information on weather patterns.

Monthly or trimonthly agricultural bulletins also discuss the possible effects on agriculture of the weather forecasted by the agro-metereologists.

Jamaica has also launched a website dedicated to providing twice-daily weather forecasts for farmers. Farmers can plug in the name of their location for detailed information on temperature, humidity, windspeed and other relevant data.

The training of the agrometereologists and the publishing of the bulletins are part of a larger EU-ACP project known as the Caribbean Agrometereological Initiative (CAMI), whose aim is to improve agricultural productivity in the region through the “improved dissemination and application of weather and climate information using an integrated and coordinated approach.”

CAMI’s partners include the Caribbean Institute for Metereology and Hydrology and the Caribbean Agricultural Research and Development Institute (CARDI), among others.

Dr. Leslie Simpson said that Caribbean farmers have been in dire need of “access to information about what is happening and what is expected to happen with regard to climate change, and then information on how they can deal with these changes and risks.”

Farmers at workshops co-sponsored by CARDI “always asked, ‘When do we plant? When is the rain going to start?’” said Dr. Simpson, who is the natural resources management specialist with responsibility for climate change at CARDI.

The region’s increasing climate variability and the effects of climate change are making it difficult for farmers to determine when best to plant their crops, since the type of crop planted at a given time of year depends on the amount of rain expected then.

Region-wide discussions with farmers revealed that the foremost needs were for seasonal and inter-annual climate forecasts, forecasting for crop disease and pest incidence, and user-friendly weather and climate information.

Dr. Simpson said that “dealing with the variability of the present weather situation is the first step [for farmers] in dealing with any future climate change.”

CAMI notes that, “Short-range forecasts are normally available one day in advance, but modern agricultural practices …require weather forecasts with higher lead time which enable the farmers to take ameliorative measures.

“Thus, for the agricultural sector, location-specific weather forecast in the medium range (three to 10 days in advance) is very important. These forecasts and advisories should be made available in a language that farmers can understand.”

A second CARDI project now underway to help Caribbean farmers deal with climate change is being sponsored by the European Development Fund and administered by the ACP. This project is to help identify strains of crops that would be resilient to climate variability and climate change.

Dr. Arlington Chesney, CARDI’s executive director, told IPS that the project would focus firstly on starches and vegetable protein since “those are critical components of the diet of the majority of people in the region.”

Among the crops identified for research are sweet potato, cassava, corn, peas and beans. Dr. Chesney said the project has done a review of the soil types and changes in temperatures and rainfall patterns in various islands over the past 20 years, preparatory to selecting the crop varieties for investigation.

“We would try to characterise these varieties morphologically and genomically. We are looking at their DNA to determine if there are some inherent characteristics that are more resilient to climate change so that we could, with time, have a group of these varieties that we could say have a better than average chance of doing well under these new [climate] conditions,” Dr. Chesney said.

Much of the DNA work will be done by CARDI’s European partner in the project, the Wageningen University in Holland, which is considered one of the foremost agricultural universities in that country.

The university “will also do matching between the DNA crop performance and ecological measurements, temperatures, and rainfall,” said Dr. Chesney. CARDI will be providing mainly logistical and technical support on the project.

Dr. Chesney, like CAMI, stresses that his organisation’s work on equipping farmers to cope with climate change seeks to ensure the region’s food supply by improving farmers’ standard of living.