Ethiopia's Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed shrugged off concerns that Ethiopia could descend into civil war, even as reports of clashes between federal soldiers and those loyal to the Tigray region’s governing party continued. Courtesy: GCIS

By Alison Kentish
UNITED NATIONS, Nov 10 2020 (IPS)

Already reeling from conflict, extreme weather events and growing displacement due to the COVID-19 pandemic, escalating tensions in Ethiopia’s Tigray region have placed the country on the brink of civil war and many are looking to Nobel Peace Prize-winning Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed to avert a potential humanitarian disaster.

The Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) has called the Prime Minister an ‘illegitimate leader,’ after Abiy announced that he would postpone elections due to the pandemic. The country’s parliament has in turn declared the Tigray administration illegitimate and last week voted for its dissolution. Prime Minister Abiy confirmed that air strikes had been carried out in the region and warned of further action against military targets.

In a social media post on Nov. 9, the Prime Minister however shrugged off concerns that Ethiopia could descend into civil war, even as reports of clashes between federal soldiers and those loyal to the Tigray region’s governing party continued.

Abiy’s statement came less than a week after United Nations Secretary General António Guterres expressed ‘grave concern’ over the reports of violence and attacks on civilians, while calling for ‘inclusive dialogue’ to diffuse tensions.

The Norwegian Refugee Council (NRC) has joined the growing number of agencies calling for dialogue to end the conflict. The NRC operates in seven regions in Ethiopia, including the northern Tigray region. The Council’s Regional Director for East Africa and Yemen, Nigel Tricks, spoke to IPS about the current refugee situation in Ethiopia and why the country can ill afford further escalation in violence.

Excerpts of the interview follow:

Inter Press Service (IPS): In your statement you noted that the escalating tensions in Ethiopia are adding to an already tenuous situation that includes mass displacement. What are some of the current humanitarian needs in Ethiopia?

Nigel Tricks (NT): Ethiopia has been a centre for humanitarian response for some time; a situation driven by conflict and erratic weather that have caused cyclical droughts and floods. In 2020 alone, over 19 million people across the country are in need of humanitarian assistance, a situation that has been compounded by the COVID-19 pandemic. As a result of recurring food crises, the U.N. estimates 687,000 children will require treatment for severe acute malnutrition. On top of that, Ethiopia is home to 792,000 refugees mainly from Somalia and South Sudan as well as close to two million internally displaced people. The country has also been affected by the recent desert locust infestation, which risks further aggravating the food situation for millions of people. 

More specifically to Tigray and according to the U.N., more than two million people in the region need some form of humanitarian assistance, including 400,000 people who are food insecure, or unable to meet their food needs. The region is also home to 96,000 refugees, approximately 12 percent of the total number of refugees in Ethiopia.

IPS: What would heightened tensions mean for the people of the Tigray region?

NT: Escalating tensions that could result in conflict threaten the safety of thousands of people. Both local communities and displaced people and refugees hosted in the area, are at the risk of being caught up in violence. Conflict would also make it more difficult for vulnerable families, who already rely on aid, to safely exercise their right to access humanitarian assistance like food, health and education especially in the context of a global pandemic. As a result, more people will be forced to migrate, putting them at different risks and making them dependent on humanitarian aid.

IPS: You called for an end to military action. What do you think it would take now to diffuse this situation?

NT: Concerted efforts between the national government as well as leaders in the Tigray region will be paramount in de-escalating tensions. Given the country’s influence across the region, actors such as the African Union can also play a role in helping Ethiopia find a lasting solution to the crisis and enhance greater regional stability.  We would also like to see Ethiopia’s many friends in the wider international community offer their help in finding satisfactory outcomes for all parties.

IPS: Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed is a Nobel Peace Prize winner. Do you think that this situation presents an opportunity for him to live up to the ideals of this award and prove that a peaceful resolution is possible?

NT: Ethiopia, in general, has been perceived as a beacon of reconciliation since Prime Minster Abiy Ahmed initiated reforms in the country in 2018. Regionally, the country has also been an important regional influence for good, for example in South Sudan’s peace processes. Ethiopian leaders, including regional and national authorities, have the opportunity now to focus efforts towards a peaceful resolution to the crisis and avoid more violence.

IPS: The eyes of the world are on the United States’ elections, but is it time for world leaders to address the ongoing conflict in Ethiopia?

 NT: World leaders, including international governments, have played their part in supporting Ethiopia both in responding to the current humanitarian situation as well as in their nation-wide development efforts. However, the international community including African regional leaders should step up the involvement in helping Ethiopia find peaceful solutions before there is widespread conflict. The U.S. can make a difference.  How it communicates on the conflict in the coming days could contribute to or reduce tension. 

IPS: The NRC has spoken out on the Ethiopian humanitarian situation. Going forward, how do you proceed? Is it a case of monitoring the situation and continuing to provide shelter and assistance on the ground or does it also mean preparing for a possible influx of refugees?

NT: NRC will continue to monitor the situation while delivering its humanitarian mandate across the country including in the Tigray region where we have been working for several years. We will also work closely with government authorities as well as local and community organisations to ensure that aid reaches those that need it the most in an efficient manner and ensure that, should the situation call for it, we are sufficiently prepared to increase our response.

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Somali government forces march during an army day parade in Mogadishu, Somalia. The country’s armed forces are not strong enough to control the threat of the Islamism extremist group Al-Shabaab and are propped up by Ethiopian troops and African Union peace-keepers. Credit: Abdurrahman Warsameh/IPS

By William Lloyd-George
ADDIS ABABA , May 17 2013 (IPS)

Despite comments by Ethiopian Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn suggesting the pending withdrawal of his country’s troops from Somalia, many experts have voiced doubts that Ethiopia will pull out of Somalia before it is capable of handling its security without assistance.

“Ethiopia has a big interest in Somalia and will remain, keeping its eyes wide open there for some time,” Abel Abate, from the state-funded think tank the Ethiopian International Institute for Peace and Development, told IPS.

“One purpose is to avoid the threat posed by the Islamist Al-Shabaab group, which sees Ethiopia as an enemy. And secondly, to show the world that it has made a significant contribution to peace and stability in the region.”

Somalia is still recovering from nearly two decades of war, and large parts of the Horn of Africa nation have been under siege by the extremist Al-Shabaab. The Somali transitional federal government, which is propped up by the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) and regional troops, barely has control over the country’s capital Mogadishu.“Ethiopia wanted ... to show the world that it is the maker or breaker of Somalia.” -- Abel Abate

While African countries have sent troops to Somalia under AMISOM, Ethiopia’s troops, which have been in the country since 2011, do not operate under the AU mission.

Last year, with the help of regional forces, the Somali government was able to recapture some key points in the country, including the port of Merca and the city of Jowhar, the biggest town under Al-Shabaab control, situated 70 km and 90 km from Mogadishu respectively.

However, in mid-March, Ethiopia pulled its troops from the southern town of Hudur without warning AMISOM. Following the withdrawal, Al-Shabaab immediately took control of the town in its first major military success since it retreated from Mogadishu in August 2011.

“Ethiopia pulled out from certain places in Somalia in order to send a signal to the international community that unless you support us, we will not shoulder all of Somalia’s problems,” Abate said.

“Ethiopia wanted to put pressure on the agencies and countries which have been supporting AMISOM but not Ethiopia, and to show the world that it is the maker or breaker of Somalia.”

Meanwhile, an Ethiopian government representative told IPS that the lack of international support for Somalia has made it difficult for this country to withdraw troops.

“Ever since we intervened in Somalia our initial plan was to hand it over to AMISOM and Somali forces,” Ethiopian government spokesperson Dina Mufti told IPS.

“However, we feel that international support has been lagging, not only for AMISOM, but for the whole Somali project, which has made it difficult for us to withdraw while these forces are too weak to take over.”

Dina hoped that a recent conference in London on May 7, where over 50 countries and organisations met to discuss how best to aid Somalia, might change this. However, he stopped short of saying it would be a game changer.

“One thing is for sure, we remain fully committed to supporting Somalia,” Dina said. But he could not say if Ethiopia would wait until AMISOM and the Somali army took over key strongholds before pulling out. “That I can’t say.”

Unlike AMISOM forces in Somalia, which are funded by the AU, Ethiopia pays for their operations themselves. This is believed to be one of the biggest contributing factors to Ethiopia’s frustration.

“Hailemariam has … tried to put pressure on the international community to put more resources into the issue, so Ethiopia can pull out gradually,” Kjetil Tronvoll from the Oslo-based International Law and Policy Institute told IPS.

“I do not think they will pull out prematurely, I think they might regroup some of their forces, but I don’t think they will just leave it open for Al-Shabaab to regroup and resurface and stay in that area currently controlled by Ethiopia.”

Tronvoll said he believed that Ethiopia would use its presence in Somalia as a bargaining chip for its agenda.

“If they feel as though they are losing influence in Mogadishu … or if they feel as though they are being pushed out, or not being consulted enough, they can use a withdrawal as a threat,” said Tronvoll. “They could say, we back you up on the ground, and if our concerns are not listened to in your policy development, then these are the repercussions you can expect.”

While it is seemingly unlikely that Ethiopia will immediately withdraw its troops, contradictory statements made last month by members of the Ethiopian government did result in confusion.

On Apr. 23, Hailemariam told parliament that AMISOM was taking too long to replace Ethiopian troops and that the main focus should be to accelerate their withdrawal.

However, the next day the Ministry of Foreign Affairs said Ethiopia would not withdraw troops until AMISOM and the Somali army were ready to take over.

But it is uncertain how much longer this will take.

According to Hassan Rafiki, an expert consultant at the Institute for Peace and Security Studies working with the government of Somalia, AMISOM is not as aggressive as it was in the initial stages.

“The troops have now found room to breathe from Al-Shabaab and the mission is, therefore, not encouraged or enthusiastic to replace the Ethiopian troops,” Rafiki told IPS.

“Somalia is now becoming a money machine for troop-contributing countries in the region, who wish to train new recruits for their armed forces, instead of their initial intention to help the Somali government and people.”

Another concern is the lack of AMISOM resources. “In its current capacity of little over 17,000 (troops), AMISOM is over-stretched. It won’t be able to fill the vacuum left by Ethiopia unless its troop levels are increased,” Abdi Aynte, director of Mogadishu’s first think-tank the Heritage Institute for Policy Studies, told IPS.

“Ethiopia must understand that it’s in its best interest to shift course and work with the Somali people and their government to reestablish strong state institutions,” said Aynte. “A stable, democratic Somalia is the best possible neighbour that Ethiopia could ask for in the world’s toughest region.”