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	<title>Inter Press ServiceHailemariam Desalegn Topics</title>
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		<title>Swelling Ethiopian Migration Casts Doubt on its Economic Miracle</title>
		<link>https://www.ipsnews.net/2015/04/swelling-ethiopian-migration-casts-doubt-on-its-economic-miracle/</link>
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		<pubDate>Sat, 25 Apr 2015 13:20:36 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Chalachew Tadesse</dc:creator>
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		<description><![CDATA[The 28 Ethiopian migrants of Christian faith murdered by the Islamic State (IS) on Apr. 19 in Libya had planned to cross the Mediterranean Sea in search of work in Europe. Commenting on the killings to Fana Broadcasting Corporation (FBC), Ethiopian government spokesperson Redwan Hussien urged potential migrants not to risk their lives by using [&#8230;]]]></description>
		
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>By Chalachew Tadesse<br />ADDIS ABABA, Apr 25 2015 (IPS) </p><p>The 28 Ethiopian migrants of Christian faith murdered by the Islamic State (IS) on Apr. 19 in Libya had planned to cross the Mediterranean Sea in search of work in Europe.<span id="more-140322"></span></p>
<p>Commenting on the killings to Fana Broadcasting Corporation (FBC), Ethiopian government spokesperson Redwan Hussien urged potential migrants not to risk their lives by using dangerous exit routes.</p>
<p>Hussein’s call sparked anger among hundreds of Ethiopian youths and relatives of the deceased, who took to the streets in the capital Addis Ababa this week before the demonstration was disbanded by the police, local media reported.</p>
<p>Protestors cited the government’s lukewarm response to the massacre of Orthodox Christians for their outrage, the Addis Standard reported. Later in the week, during a public rally organised by the government in the capital, violence again broke out between security forces and protesters resulting in injuries and the detention of over a hundred protesters, local and international media reported.“Pervasive repression and denial of fundamental freedoms has led to frustration, alienation and disillusionment among most Ethiopian youth” – Yared Hailemariam, former senior researcher for the Ethiopian Human Rights Council (now Human Rights Council)<br /><font size="1"></font></p>
<p>Almost two-thirds of Ethiopians are Christians, the majority of those Orthodox Copts – who say that they have been in the Horn of Africa nation since the first century AD — as well as large numbers of Protestants.</p>
<p>In the widely-reported incident in Libya, IS militants beheaded 16 Ethiopian migrants in one group on a beach and shot 12 in the head in another group in a desert area. Eyasu Yikunoamilak and Balcha Belete, residents of the impoverished Cherkos neighbourhood in Addis Ababa, were among the victims, it was learnt, along with three other victims from Cherkos.</p>
<p>Seyoum Yikunoamilak, elder brother of Eyasu Yikunoamilak, told FBC that Eyasu and Balcha left their country for Sudan two months ago en route to reach the United Kingdom for work to help themselves and their families, but this was not meant to be.</p>
<p>“I used to talk to them on phone while they were in the Sudan,” Seyoum said in grief. “But I never heard from them since they entered Libya one month ago.” Eyasu had previously been a migrant worker in Qatar and had covered his friend’s expenses with his savings to reach Europe, said Seyoum.</p>
<p>In defiance of the warning of the government spokesperson, Meshesa Mitiku, a long-time friend of Eyasu and Balcha living in Cherkos, told the Associated Press on Apr. 20: “I will try my luck too but not through Libya. Here there is no chance to improve yourself.” Meshesha’s intentions came even after learning about the fate of his friends.</p>
<p>Ethiopian lawmakers declared a three-day national mourning on Apr. 21. The government also expressed its readiness to repatriate all migrants in dangerous foreign countries, the Washington-based VOA Amharic radio reported.</p>
<p>The rally earlier in the week came one month before Ethiopia holds parliamentary elections, the first since the death of long-time leader Meles Zenawi, and current prime minister Hailemariam Desalegn is expected to face little if any opposition challenge.</p>
<p>&#8220;We will redouble efforts to fight terrorism,&#8221; foreign ministry spokesman Tewolde Mulugeta said in response to demands for action from protesters.</p>
<p>Ethiopia is trying to create jobs so that people do not feel the need to leave to find work, he added. &#8220;We&#8217;re trying to create opportunities here for our young people. We encourage them to exploit those opportunities at home.&#8221;</p>
<p>Nevertheless, disenchantment marked by asserted claims of repression, inequality and unemployment has spurred a series of protests against the regime over the last few years.</p>
<p>These and other issues have prompted the exodus of Ethiopian migrants to Europe, according to several observers. “The idea that the majority of Ethiopian migrants relocate due to economic reasons appears flawed,” contends Tom Rhodes, East Africa Representative of the Committee to Protect Journalists, in an email interview with IPS. Rhodes also maintained that the violation of fundamental freedoms is closely tied with poverty and economic inequality.</p>
<p>In an email interview with IPS, Yared Hailemariam, a former senior researcher for the Ethiopian Human Rights Council, agreed. “Pervasive repression and denial of fundamental freedoms has led to frustration, alienation and disillusionment among most Ethiopian youth.”</p>
<p>“Citizens have the right to peacefully protest,” said Felix Horne, East Africa researcher with Human Rights Watch. “It’s no surprise given the steps government takes to restrict peaceful protests that disenfranchised youth would use the rare opportunity of an officially sanctioned public demonstration to express their frustrations. That’s the inevitable outcome when there are no other means for them to express their opinions.”</p>
<p>The main opposition parties say that the government has failed to create job opportunities, making migration inevitable. The regime, they charge, favours members of the ruling Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front and creates economic inequality.</p>
<p>Recently dubbed an “African tiger”, Ethiopia is one of Africa’s most populous nations with 94 million people (Nigeria has 173.6 million). It has been celebrated for its modest economic growth over the last years. But the average unemployment rate (the number of people actively looking for a job as a percentage of the labour force) was stuck at 20.26 percent from 1999 to 2014.</p>
<p>“The regime allocates state resources and job opportunities to members of the ruling party who are organised in small-scale and micro enterprises,” noted Horne. The CPJ representative agreed. “Ethiopian government authorities tend to reward their political supporters and ethnic relations with lucrative political and business positions” at the expense of ingenuity in the business sector.</p>
<p>In its 2015 report, the World Bank shared this discouraging view. Some 37 million Ethiopians – one-third of the country’s population – are still “either poor or vulnerable to falling into poverty”, the World Bank <a href="http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2015/01/20/poverty-ethiopia-down-33-percent">said</a>, adding that the “very poorest in Ethiopia have become even poorer” over the last decade or so.</p>
<p>The U.N. Food and Agricultural Organisation (FAO) has estimated that about 29 percent of the population lives below the national poverty line. This explains Ethiopia’s rank at 174 out of 187 countries on the U.N. Development Programme (UNDP) Human Development Index.</p>
<p>The Oakland Institute, a U.S.-based non-governmental organisation that spotlights land grabs, was recently denounced by Ethiopian officials for its latest <a href="http://www.oaklandinstitute.org/we-say-land-not-yours-breaking-silence-against-forced-displacement-ethiopia">report</a> ‘<em>We Say the Land is Not Yours</em>’. According to the government, the institute used “unverified and unverifiable information”.</p>
<p>In a reply to the Ethiopian Embassy in the United Kingdom on Apr. 22, Oakland Institute challenged the government’s claim that ongoing development was improving life standards in the country.</p>
<p>The institute maintained that the government’s development endeavours are “destroying the lives, culture, traditions, and livelihoods” of many indigenous and pastoralist populations, further warning that the strategy was “unsustainable and creating a fertile breeding ground for conflict.”</p>
<p>More than half of Ethiopia’s farmers are cultivating plots so small as to barely provide sustenance. These one hectare or less plots are further affected by drought, an ineffective and inefficient agricultural marketing system and underdeveloped production technologies, says FAO. Several studies indicate that this phenomenon has induced massive rural-urban migration.</p>
<p>According to Yared Hailemariam, state ownership of land has contributed to poverty and inequality. “People don’t have full rights over their properties so that they lack the motivation to invest,” he stressed. The ruling regime insists that land will remain in the hands of the state, and selling and buying land is prohibited in Ethiopia.</p>
<p>Yared also pointed out that the ruling party owns several huge businesses which has created unfair competition in the economy. “The party’s huge conglomerates have weakened other public and private businesses” he told IPS. “Only the ruling party’s political elites and their business cronies are benefitting at the expense of the majority of the people.”</p>
<p>The tragic news of the massacre in Libya came amid news of xenophobic attacks against Ethiopian migrants in South Africa last week including looting and burning of properties. Unknown numbers of Ethiopian economic migrants are also trapped in the Yemeni conflict, according to state media.</p>
<p><em>Edited by Lisa Vives/</em><a href="http://www.ips.org/institutional/our-global-structure/biographies/phil-harris/"><em>Phil Harris</em></a><em>    </em></p>
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<li><a href="http://www.ipsnews.net/2013/12/ethiopia-swamped-tidal-wave-returned-migrants/ " >Ethiopia Swamped by Tidal Wave of Returned Migrants</a></li>
<li><a href="http://www.ipsnews.net/2013/07/u-s-u-k-accused-of-ignoring-facilitating-abuses-in-ethiopia/ " >U.S., U.K. Accused of Ignoring, Facilitating Abuses in Ethiopia</a></li>
</ul></div>		]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>UNIDO Comes a Long Way</title>
		<link>https://www.ipsnews.net/2014/11/unido-comes-a-long-way/</link>
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		<pubDate>Thu, 06 Nov 2014 15:31:16 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Ramesh Jaura</dc:creator>
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		<description><![CDATA[The United Nations Industrial Development Organisation (UNIDO) has come a long way since 1997, when it faced the risk of closure in the aftermath of the end of the Cold War. At that time, it was threatened with the withdrawal of Canada, the United States – its largest donor – as well as Australia on [&#8230;]]]></description>
		
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><font color="#999999"><img width="300" height="293" src="https://www.ipsnews.net/Library/2014/11/15709187715_1b79e23acc_b-300x293.jpg" class="attachment-medium size-medium wp-post-image" alt="" decoding="async" fetchpriority="high" srcset="https://www.ipsnews.net/Library/2014/11/15709187715_1b79e23acc_b-300x293.jpg 300w, https://www.ipsnews.net/Library/2014/11/15709187715_1b79e23acc_b-482x472.jpg 482w, https://www.ipsnews.net/Library/2014/11/15709187715_1b79e23acc_b-900x880.jpg 900w, https://www.ipsnews.net/Library/2014/11/15709187715_1b79e23acc_b.jpg 1024w" sizes="(max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px" /><p class="wp-caption-text">UNIDO Director General LI Yong at the Second ISID Forum, Nov. 4-5, 2014. Credit: Courtesy of UNIDO</p></font></p><p>By Ramesh Jaura<br />VIENNA, Nov 6 2014 (IPS) </p><p>The United Nations Industrial Development Organisation (UNIDO) has come a long way since 1997, when it faced the risk of closure in the aftermath of the end of the Cold War.<span id="more-137623"></span></p>
<p>At that time, it was threatened with the withdrawal of Canada, the United States – its largest donor – as well as Australia on the grounds that the private sector was better suited to foster industrial development than an inter-governmental organisation.</p>
<p>Nearly one-and-a-half year after UNIDO’s 53-member Industrial Development Board appointed LI Jong – who had served as China’s Vice-Minister of Finance since 2003 &#8211; as Director General, the organisation is set to respond to post-2015 global development priorities by treading the path to <em>inclusive and sustainable industrial development</em> (ISID).</p>
<p>“We have a vision of a just world where resources are optimised for the good of people. Inclusive and sustainable industrial development can drive success" – U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon<br /><font size="1"></font>It was not surprising therefore that some 450 participants from 92 countries, including Heads of State and government, ministers, representatives of bilateral and multilateral development partners, agencies of the United Nations system, the private sector, non-governmental organisations and academia, joined hands to interact at UNIDO’s Second ISID Forum on Nov. 4 and 5 at the United Nations headquarters in Vienna.</p>
<p>The first Forum was convened in June 2014, at which government officials and key policy-makers exchanged views on policies and ISID instruments and examined what had worked in one country and could inspire another.</p>
<p>“The promotion of inclusive and sustainable industrial development is a very clear mandate given by our Member States at the General Conference of UNIDO in Lima, Peru, last December,” LI told the Forum on Nov, 4.</p>
<p>“Since then, we have been implementing the new mandate in various ways … Today we send a strong statement: technical assistance cannot remain isolated from the main forces that shape the course of progress in your countries. We have to combine our efforts to enhance the developmental impact of our endeavours. Together we will grow; the partnership will make us stronger.”</p>
<p>The rationale behind the UNIDO Director General’s thinking is obvious. Strategic partnerships are the best response to increasingly complex development challenges because there is no single development strategy and no single actor that can address all the social, environmental and economic challenges the world faces today.</p>
<p>“Integrated and multi-actor responses are required to tackle problems like climate change, economic recovery, rising youth unemployment, conflict, and emerging problems such as global health pandemics,” argues Ll.</p>
<p>U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon also believes that &#8220;the overarching imperative for our planet’s future is sustainable development.” In opening remarks to the Second Forum, Ban said:  “We have a vision of a just world where resources are optimised for the good of people. Inclusive and sustainable industrial development can drive success.&#8221;</p>
<p>Amid applause, Ban added that among the main area of action – climate change – presents an opening for inclusive and sustainable industrial development.</p>
<p>&#8220;Smart governments and investors are exploring innovative green technologies that can protect the environment and achieve economic growth. For industrial development to be sustainable it must abandon old models that pollute. Instead, we need sustainable approaches that help communities preserve their resources,&#8221; he said.</p>
<p>The UNIDO forum closely examined and endorsed new pilot programmes for country partnerships to promote inclusive and sustainable industrial development in Ethiopia and Senegal.</p>
<p>The programmes are based on close analysis and insights gained by UNIDO experts during visits to the two countries in the course of the previous months. They have identified a number of strong partners, both local and international, and accordingly designed the two partnership programmes.</p>
<div id="attachment_137624" style="width: 250px" class="wp-caption alignleft"><img decoding="async" aria-describedby="caption-attachment-137624" class="size-full wp-image-137624" src="https://www.ipsnews.net/Library/2014/11/15089854033_d4369195f4_m.jpg" alt="From left to right: Ethiopia's Prime Minister, U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon, UNIDO Director General LI Yong and Senegal's Prime Minister at UNIDO’s Second ISID Forum, Nov. 4-5, 2014. Credit: Courtesy of UNIDO" width="240" height="154" /><p id="caption-attachment-137624" class="wp-caption-text">From left to right: Ethiopia&#8217;s Prime Minister, U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon, UNIDO Director General LI Yong and Senegal&#8217;s Prime Minister at UNIDO’s Second ISID Forum, Nov. 4-5, 2014. Credit: Courtesy of UNIDO</p></div>
<p>UNIDO’s work in the field of inclusive and sustainable industrialisation in Africa was lauded by Ethiopian Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn and Senegalese Prime Minister Mahammed Dionne.</p>
<p>Commending the creation of the new partnership approach, Prime Minister Desalegn said that inclusive and sustainable industrialisation would help his country develop. He said Ethiopia was looking forward to enhancing its economic transformation and that such a partnership model will help implement this vision.</p>
<p>Prime Minister Dionne said economic growth must lead to the eradication of poverty and address the problem of unemployment, adding that inclusive and sustainable industrialisation would help implement Senegal’s development plan by providing the collective action needed to make it happen.</p>
<p>Director General Ll assured the two prime ministers that “UNIDO is fully committed to supporting the governments of Ethiopia and Senegal in implementing the two programmes.”</p>
<p>“These pilot programmes,” he said, “mark the beginning of a larger, more comprehensive and ambitious approach to how UNIDO undertakes technical cooperation with and for Member States to support their industrialisation agenda.”</p>
<p>“If we want to achieve the scale of development needed, we have to explore the full potential of inclusive and sustainable industrial development,” Ll added.</p>
<p>“We have to strengthen productive capacities. We must build enterprises. We must reach out to farmers and entrepreneurs, and promote economic diversification and structural transformation based on adding value to the natural resources of these countries.”</p>
<p>The need for moving away from activities that are low value-added and low-productivity to activities that add more value and boost productivity was explained by the U.N. Secretary-General at the high-level thematic roundtable of the United Nations Conference on Landlocked Developing Countries (LLDCs) on Nov. 3 in Vienna.</p>
<p>There, Ban said: “Think of a coffee bean, just a simple coffee bean. All LLDCs can sell just a coffee bean as it is. But more developed creative countries … grind this coffee bean and sell as a manufactured product at a much higher price.</p>
<p>“The same with unprocessed minerals. Lots of developing countries … sell minerals just as they are. Many foreign companies come and bring all these minerals, and then they sell back with processed manufactures, [at a] much higher [price]. Then with their own mineral resources they have to buy, they have to pay a lot of money.”</p>
<p>ISID takes into account factors such as the structural and knowhow bottlenecks faced by developing countries by “the mobilisation of partners and their resources to synergise with UNIDO’s technical cooperation”, LI told the ISID Forum.</p>
<p>Commenting on the agreed cooperation with Ethiopia and Senegal, he said: “I would say that these two pilot programmes for country partnership mark the beginning of a larger, more comprehensive and more ambitious approach of how UNIDO undertakes technical cooperation with and for Member States to support their industrialisation agendas.”</p>
<p>“Together with our partners, we will finalise the planning of the partnership country programmes, based on the inputs we receive in this Forum.”</p>
<p>Those inputs included recognition that the concerns and development objectives of countries seeking international support must be taken into account and that there is no alternative to public-private partnerships.</p>
<p>These partnerships, participants agreed, must aim at eradication of poverty and not maximisation of the profits of the private corporations involved in such partnerships.</p>
<p>(Edited by <a href="http://www.ips.org/institutional/our-global-structure/biographies/phil-harris/">Phil Harris</a>)</p>
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<li><a href="http://www.ipsnews.net/2014/11/unido-forum-expresses-cautious-optimism-on-ethiopias-economic-strides/ " >UNIDO Forum Expresses Cautious Optimism on Ethiopia’s Economic Strides</a></li>
<li><a href="http://www.ipsnews.net/2014/11/praise-for-unidos-technical-assistance/ " >Praise For UNIDO’s Technical Assistance</a></li>
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		<title>UNIDO Forum Expresses Cautious Optimism on Ethiopia’s Economic Strides</title>
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		<pubDate>Wed, 05 Nov 2014 23:29:43 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Julia Rainer</dc:creator>
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		<description><![CDATA[With annual economic growth rates of over 10 percent and attractive investment conditions due to low infrastructural and labour costs, Ethiopia is eagerly trying to rise from the status of low-income to middle-income country in the next 10 years. Ethiopia, with some 94 million inhabitants, is the second most populous country in Africa after Nigeria, [&#8230;]]]></description>
		
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>By Julia Rainer<br />VIENNA, Nov 5 2014 (IPS) </p><p>With annual economic growth rates of over 10 percent and attractive investment conditions due to low infrastructural and labour costs, Ethiopia is eagerly trying to rise from the status of low-income to middle-income country in the next 10 years.<span id="more-137611"></span></p>
<p>Ethiopia, with some 94 million inhabitants, is the second most populous country in Africa after Nigeria, but it remains a predominantly rural country. Only 17.5 percent of the population lives in urban areas, mainly Addis Ababa.</p>
<p>It is also one of the continent’s fastest growing economies. Between 2015 and 2018 growth is expected to average 7.3 percent, according to a recent study by the United Nations Industrial Development Organisation (UNIDO).</p>
<p>While economic growth since 2006/2007 doubled per capita income to 550 dollars in 2012/13, and the percentage of people living below the national poverty line dropped from 38.9 in 2004 to 29.6 in 2011, government sources admit that eradication of poverty remains a compelling issue.“There is not a single country in the world which has reached a high state of economic and social development without having developed an advanced industrialised sector” – UNIDO Director General Li Yong<br /><font size="1"></font></p>
<p>The official target of rising to a middle-income country is considered to be realistic, but an East Asian diplomat accredited to the African Union in Addis Ababa says there is reason to be sceptical, partly because although the amount of foreign direct investment (FDI) rose from 0.5 percent in 2008 to 2 percent in 2013, investors continue to face trade constraints.</p>
<p>According to UNIDO, these are mainly related to border-logistics. Djibouti, the main import-export seaport used by Ethiopia, is situated 781 km from Addis Ababa, which makes the cost of land transportation a critical factor.</p>
<p>It is against this backdrop that UNIDO has chosen Ethiopia, along with Senegal, as a pilot country for its ambitious <em>inclusive and sustainable industrial development</em> (ISID) programme, which aims to achieve industrialisation in developing countries in order to eradicate poverty and create prosperity.</p>
<p>According to UNIDO Director General Li Yong, “there is not a single country in the world which has reached a high state of economic and social development without having developed an advanced industrialised sector”.</p>
<p>What distinguishes the ISID programme is that “current modes of industrialisation are neither fully inclusive nor properly sustainable”, he added. UNIDO is therefore not merely promoting industrialisation but trying to approach the needs and challenges of the globalised world that demand future-oriented concepts.</p>
<p>Promoting the sustainability that should be inherent to industrialisation, UNIDO says that the ISID programme takes into account environmental factors together with its partner countries and organisations.</p>
<p>It also fosters an industrialisation that is inclusive in sharing the benefits of the generated prosperity for all parties involved, thereby promoting social equality within populations as well as an equal distribution between men and women to ensure that nobody is excluded from the benefits of growth.</p>
<p>To show how these objectives can be met and to promote ISID, UNIDO organised the Second Forum on ISID from Nov. 4 to 5 in Vienna. In an opening statement, U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon said: “We have a vision of a just world where resources are optimised for the good of people. Inclusive and sustainable industrial development can drive success.”</p>
<p>The Secretary-General, who is a strong advocate of the sustainable development agenda, also said that in order to achieve this objective, “industrial development must abandon old models that pollute. Instead, we need sustainable approaches that help communities preserve their resources.”</p>
<p>Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn of Ethiopia and Prime Minister Mahammed Dionne of Senegal – representing the two pilot countries chosen for ISID – commended UNIDO for implementing a partnership programme, and Ethiopia’s State Minister of Industry, Mebrahtu Meles, emphasised that building industrial zones will accelerate industrialisation, as has been done by Asian countries such as China.</p>
<p>Forum participants expressed optimism about Ethiopia achieving economic growth through inclusive and industrial sustainable development provided that leadership and vision focused on the country’s comparative advantages while improving infrastructure.</p>
<p>They said that regional integration could be key for the development of the country, and called for further exploration of UNIDO’s role as a catalyst of transformational change.</p>
<p>In particular additional efforts were required to enhance the productivity in existing light industries such as agro-food processing, textiles and garments, leather and leather products. There was also a need to diversify by launching new industries such as heavy metal and chemicals and building up high-tech industries like packing, biotechnology, electronics, information and communications.</p>
<p>The ambassadors of China, Japan and Italy to Ethiopia – Xie Xiaoyan, Kazuhiro Suzuki and Giuseppe Mistretta respectively – as well as business stakeholders and development banks assured their continued support in helping Ethiopia take the path towards inclusive and sustainable industrial development, mainly through UNIDO.</p>
<p>(Edited by <a href="http://www.ips.org/institutional/our-global-structure/biographies/phil-harris/">Phil Harris</a>)</p>
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		<title>Ethiopia Playing at Being Good Neighbours</title>
		<link>https://www.ipsnews.net/2013/05/ethiopia-playing-at-being-good-neighbours/</link>
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		<pubDate>Fri, 17 May 2013 07:07:52 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>William Lloyd-George</dc:creator>
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		<description><![CDATA[Despite comments by Ethiopian Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn suggesting the pending withdrawal of his country’s troops from Somalia, many experts have voiced doubts that Ethiopia will pull out of Somalia before it is capable of handling its security without assistance. “Ethiopia has a big interest in Somalia and will remain, keeping its eyes wide open [&#8230;]]]></description>
		
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><font color="#999999"><img width="300" height="199" src="https://www.ipsnews.net/Library/2013/05/SomaliForces-300x199.jpg" class="attachment-medium size-medium wp-post-image" alt="" decoding="async" loading="lazy" srcset="https://www.ipsnews.net/Library/2013/05/SomaliForces-300x199.jpg 300w, https://www.ipsnews.net/Library/2013/05/SomaliForces-629x417.jpg 629w, https://www.ipsnews.net/Library/2013/05/SomaliForces.jpg 640w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px" /><p class="wp-caption-text">Somali government forces march during an army day parade in Mogadishu, Somalia. The country’s armed forces are not strong enough to control the threat of the Islamism extremist group Al-Shabaab and are propped up by Ethiopian troops and African Union peace-keepers. Credit: Abdurrahman Warsameh/IPS</p></font></p><p>By William Lloyd-George<br />ADDIS ABABA , May 17 2013 (IPS) </p><p>Despite comments by Ethiopian Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn suggesting the pending withdrawal of his country’s troops from Somalia, many experts have voiced doubts that Ethiopia will pull out of Somalia before it is capable of handling its security without assistance.<span id="more-118920"></span></p>
<p>“Ethiopia has a big interest in Somalia and will remain, keeping its eyes wide open there for some time,” Abel Abate, from the state-funded think tank the <a href="http://eiipdethiopia.org/">Ethiopian International Institute for Peace and Development</a>, told IPS.</p>
<p>“One purpose is to avoid the threat posed by the Islamist <a href="https://www.ipsnews.net/2013/05/giving-extremists-a-second-chance/">Al-Shabaab</a> group, which sees Ethiopia as an enemy. And secondly, to show the world that it has made a significant contribution to peace and stability in the region.”</p>
<p>Somalia is still recovering from nearly two decades of war, and large parts of the Horn of Africa nation have been under siege by the <a href="https://www.ipsnews.net/2011/12/somalia-taking-schools-back-from-militants/">extremist</a> Al-Shabaab. The Somali transitional federal government, which is propped up by the <a href="http://amisom-au.org/">African Union Mission in Somalia</a> (AMISOM) and regional troops, barely has control over the country’s capital Mogadishu.“Ethiopia wanted ... to show the world that it is the maker or breaker of Somalia.” -- Abel Abate<br /><font size="1"></font></p>
<p>While African countries have sent troops to Somalia under AMISOM, Ethiopia’s troops, which have been in the country since 2011, do not operate under the AU mission.</p>
<p>Last year, with the help of regional forces, the Somali government was able to recapture some key points in the country, including the port of Merca and the city of Jowhar, the biggest town under Al-Shabaab control, situated 70 km and 90 km from Mogadishu respectively.</p>
<p>However, in mid-March, Ethiopia pulled its troops from the southern town of Hudur without warning AMISOM. Following the withdrawal, Al-Shabaab immediately took control of the town in its first major military success since it retreated from Mogadishu in August 2011.</p>
<p>“Ethiopia pulled out from certain places in Somalia in order to send a signal to the international community that unless you support us, we will not shoulder all of Somalia&#8217;s problems,” Abate said.</p>
<p>“Ethiopia wanted to put pressure on the agencies and countries which have been supporting AMISOM but not Ethiopia, and to show the world that it is the maker or breaker of Somalia.”</p>
<p>Meanwhile, an Ethiopian government representative told IPS that the lack of international support for Somalia has made it difficult for this country to withdraw troops.</p>
<p>“Ever since we intervened in Somalia our initial plan was to hand it over to AMISOM and Somali forces,” Ethiopian government spokesperson Dina Mufti told IPS.</p>
<p>“However, we feel that international support has been lagging, not only for AMISOM, but for the whole Somali project, which has made it difficult for us to withdraw while these forces are too weak to take over.”</p>
<p>Dina hoped that a recent conference in London on May 7, where over 50 countries and organisations met to discuss how best to aid Somalia, might change this. However, he stopped short of saying it would be a game changer.</p>
<p>“One thing is for sure, we remain fully committed to supporting Somalia,” Dina said. But he could not say if Ethiopia would wait until AMISOM and the Somali army took over key strongholds before pulling out. “That I can&#8217;t say.”</p>
<p>Unlike AMISOM forces in Somalia, which are funded by the AU, Ethiopia pays for their operations themselves. This is believed to be one of the biggest contributing factors to Ethiopia&#8217;s frustration.</p>
<p>“Hailemariam has … tried to put pressure on the international community to put more resources into the issue, so Ethiopia can pull out gradually,” Kjetil Tronvoll from the Oslo-based <a href="http://www.ilpi.org/">International Law and Policy Institute</a> told IPS.</p>
<p>“I do not think they will pull out prematurely, I think they might regroup some of their forces, but I don&#8217;t think they will just leave it open for Al-Shabaab to regroup and resurface and stay in that area currently controlled by Ethiopia.”</p>
<p>Tronvoll said he believed that Ethiopia would use its presence in Somalia as a bargaining chip for its agenda.</p>
<p>“If they feel as though they are losing influence in Mogadishu … or if they feel as though they are being pushed out, or not being consulted enough, they can use a withdrawal as a threat,” said Tronvoll. “They could say, we back you up on the ground, and if our concerns are not listened to in your policy development, then these are the repercussions you can expect.”</p>
<p>While it is seemingly unlikely that Ethiopia will immediately withdraw its troops, contradictory statements made last month by members of the Ethiopian government did result in confusion.</p>
<p>On Apr. 23, Hailemariam told parliament that AMISOM was taking too long to replace Ethiopian troops and that the main focus should be to accelerate their withdrawal.</p>
<p>However, the next day the Ministry of Foreign Affairs said Ethiopia would not withdraw troops until AMISOM and the Somali army were ready to take over.</p>
<p>But it is uncertain how much longer this will take.</p>
<p>According to Hassan Rafiki, an expert consultant at the Institute for Peace and Security Studies working with the government of Somalia, AMISOM is not as aggressive as it was in the initial stages.</p>
<p>“The troops have now found room to breathe from Al-Shabaab and the mission is, therefore, not encouraged or enthusiastic to replace the Ethiopian troops,” Rafiki told IPS.</p>
<p>“Somalia is now becoming a money machine for troop-contributing countries in the region, who wish to train new recruits for their armed forces, instead of their initial intention to help the Somali government and people.”</p>
<p>Another concern is the lack of AMISOM resources. “In its current capacity of little over 17,000 (troops), AMISOM is over-stretched. It won&#8217;t be able to fill the vacuum left by Ethiopia unless its troop levels are increased,” Abdi Aynte, director of Mogadishu&#8217;s first think-tank the <a href="http://www.heritageinstitute.org/">Heritage Institute for Policy Studies</a>, told IPS.</p>
<p>“Ethiopia must understand that it&#8217;s in its best interest to shift course and work with the Somali people and their government to reestablish strong state institutions,” said Aynte. “A stable, democratic Somalia is the best possible neighbour that Ethiopia could ask for in the world&#8217;s toughest region.”</p>
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