A woman watches helplessly as a flood submerges her thatched-roof home containing all her possessions on the outskirts of Bhubaneswar city in India’s eastern state of Odisha in 2008. Credit: Manipadma Jena/IPS

By Manipadma Jena
NEW DELHI, Feb 19 2015 (IPS)

So much information about climate change now abounds that it is hard to differentiate fact from fiction. Scientific reports appear alongside conspiracy theories, data is interspersed with drastic predictions about the future, and everywhere one turns, the bad news just seems to be getting worse.

Corporate lobby groups urge governments not to act, while concerned citizens push for immediate action. The little progress that is made to curb carbon emissions and contain global warming often pales in comparison to the scale of natural disasters that continue to unfold at an unprecedented rate, from record-level snowstorms, to massive floods, to prolonged droughts.

The year 2011 saw 350 billion dollars in economic damages globally, the highest since 1975 -- The Energy and Resources Institute (TERI)
Attempting to sift through all the information is a gargantuan task, but it has been made easier with the release of a new report by The Energy and Resources Institute (TERI), a think-tank based in New Delhi that has, perhaps for the first time ever, compiled an exhaustive assessment of the whole world’s progress on climate mitigation and adaptation.

The assessment also provides detailed forecasts of what each country can expect in the coming years, effectively providing a blueprint for action at a moment when many scientists fear that time is running out for saving the planet from catastrophic climate change.

Trends, risks and damages

The Global Sustainability Report 2015 released earlier this month at the Delhi Sustainable Development Summit, ranks the top 20 countries (out of 193) most at risk from climate change based on the actual impacts of extreme climate events documented over a 34-year period from 1980 to 2013.

The TERI report cites data compiled by the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED) based at the Catholic University of Leuven in Belgium, which maintains a global database of natural disasters dating back over 100 years.

The study found a 10-fold increase to 525 natural disasters in 2002 from around 50 in 1975. By 2011, 95 percent of deaths from this consistent trend of increasing natural disasters were from developing countries.

In preparing its rankings, TERI took into account everything from heat and cold waves, drought, floods, flash floods, cloudburst, landslides, avalanches, forest fires, cyclone and hurricanes.

Mozambique was found to be most at risk globally, followed by Sudan and North Korea. In both Mozambique and Sudan, extreme climate events caused more than six deaths per 100,000 people, the highest among all countries ranked, while North Korea suffered the highest economic losses annually, amounting to 1.65 percent of its gross domestic product (GDP).

The year 2011 saw 350 billion dollars in economic damages globally, the highest since 1975.

The situation is particularly bleak in Asia, where countries like Myanmar, Bangladesh and the Philippines, with a combined total population of over 300 million people, are extremely vulnerable to climate-related disasters.

China, despite high economic growth, has not been able to reduce the disaster risks to its population that is expected to touch 1.4 billion people by the end of 2015: it ranked sixth among the countries in Asia most susceptible to climate change.

Sustained effort at the national level has enabled Bangladesh to strengthen its defenses against sea-level rise, its biggest climate challenge, but it still ranked third on the list.

India, the second most populous country – expected to have 1.26 billion people by end 2015 – came in at 10^th place, while Sri Lanka and Nepal figured at 14^th and 15^th place respectively.

In Africa, Ethiopia and Somalia are also considered extremely vulnerable, while the European nations of Albania, Moldova, Spain and France appeared high on the list of at-risk countries in that region, followed by Russia in sixth place.

In the Americas, the Caribbean island nation of St. Lucia ranked first, followed by Grenada and Honduras. The most populous country in the region, Brazil, home to 200 million people, was ranked 20^th.

More disasters, higher costs

In the 110 years spanning 1900 and 2009, hydro-meteorological disasters have increased from 25 to 3,526. Hydro-meteorological, geological and biological extreme events together increased from 72 to 11,571 during that same period, the report says.

In the 60-year period between 1970 and 2030, Asia will shoulder the lion’s share of floods, cyclones and sea-level rise, with the latter projected to affect 83 million people annually compared to 16.5 million in Europe, nine million in North America and six million in Africa.

The U.N. Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNISDR) estimates that global economic losses by the end of the current century will touch 25 trillion dollars, unless strong measures for climate change mitigation, adaptation and disaster risk reduction are taken immediately.

As adaptation moves from theory to practice, it is becoming clear that the costs of adaptation will surpass previous estimates.

Developing countries, for instance, will require two to three times the previous estimates of 70-100 billion dollars per year by 2050, with a significant funding gap after 2020, according to the United Nations Environment Programme’s (UNEP) Adaptation Gap Report released last December.

Indicators such as access to water, food security, health, and socio-economic capability were considered in assessing each country’s adaptive capacity.

According to these broad criteria, Liberia ranks lowest, with a quarter of its population lacking access to water, 56 percent of its urban population living in slums, and a high incidence of malaria compounded by a miserable physician-patient ratio of one doctor to every 70,000 people.

On the other end of the adaptive capacity scale, Monaco ranks first, with 100 percent water access, no urban slums, zero malnutrition, 100 percent literacy, 71 doctors for every 10,000 people, and not a single person living below one dollar a day.

Cuba, Norway, Switzerland and the Netherlands also feature among the top five countries with the highest adaptive capacity; the United States is ranked 8^th, the United Kingdom 25^th, China 98^th and India 146^th.

The study also ranks countries on responsibilities for climate change, taking account of their historical versus current carbon emission levels.

The UK takes the most historic responsibility with 940 tonnes of CO₂ per capita emitted during the industrialisation boom of 1850-1989, while the U.S. occupies the fifth slot consistently on counts of historical responsibility, cumulative CO₂ emissions over the 1990-2011 period, as well as greenhouse gas (GHG) emission intensity per unit of GDP in 2011, the same year it clocked 6,135 million tonnes of GHG emissions.

China was the highest GHG emitter in 2011 with 10,260 million tonnes, and India ranked 3^rd with 2,358 million tonnes. However, when emission intensity per one unit of GDP is additionally considered for current responsibility, both Asian countries move lower on the scale while the oil economies of Qatar and Kuwait move up to into the ranks of the top five countries bearing the highest responsibility for climate change.

Edited by Kanya D’Almeida

Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon (left) meets with Prince Albert II, Sovereign Prince of Monaco, at the Prince’s Palace in Monaco-Ville on Apr. 3, 2013. Credit: UN Photo/Rick Bajornas

By Thalif Deen
UNITED NATIONS, Apr 9 2013 (IPS)

When Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon visited Kiribati in 2011, he had “an unexpected insight” into the fear that stalks the Pacific Island nation.

Along with toiletries, the hotel room “had an additional item that is not your typical amenity: a life jacket,” he said.

The room was equipped with a personal flotation device, obviously for dramatic effect – just in case the island, along with the hotel, sank into the ocean while the secretary-general was still a guest.

Ban said he joined the country’s president, Anote Tong, to plant mangroves as a guard against rising tides that are poisoning wells and threatening to swamp the island nation of over 100,000 people.

If current trends continue, Kiribati will be one of many vulnerable island nations which could be wiped off the face of the earth due to a sea-level rise triggered primarily by climate change.

Recounting the ecological dangers facing Kiribati, he told a gathering at the Museum of Oceanography in the Principality of Monaco last week that a major global environmental disaster is waiting to happen.

“We continue to lose biodiversity at an alarming rate,” he said, “fish stocks are shrinking rapidly – mostly due to unsustainable commercial fishing. And greenhouse gas emissions are rising and climate change is accelerating.”

The oceans are growing more acidic, threatening the whole marine food chain. The world’s coral reefs are in decline.

“Our consumption is unsustainable. And our ecological footprint is overstepping planetary boundaries,” Ban said. “We must act now to provide a liveable future for the nine billion people who will inhabit the planet in 2050.”

Since the Stockholm Conference in 1972, the Earth Summit in Brazil in 1992, and Rio+20 Conference on Sustainable Development last June, the United Nations has sought to raise awareness of the threat – and the opportunities.

During his two-day visit to Monaco, the secretary-general singled out the contributions made by one of the U.N.’s smallest member states, which has continued to sustain its focus on ecological hazards worldwide.

With a population of about 36,000 people, Monaco has one of the world’s highest life expectancies (at 90 years) and one of the world’s lowest poverty rates.

The secretary-general thanked the reigning monarch, Prince Albert II, for his personal commitment to the protection of biodiversity and the world’s oceans, as well as his work to combat climate change through the Prince Albert II of Monaco Foundation.

Valerie Bruell-Melchior, Monaco’s deputy permanent representative to the United Nations, told IPS Ban’s visit was the first ever by a U.N. secretary-general. The long-planned visit was to commemorate the 20th anniversary of Monaco’s membership in the world body.

When the U.N. Correspondents Association (UNCA) decided to honour journalists for excellence in reporting, the only member state volunteering to dedicate a prize was the Principality of Monaco.

And that prize, a gold medal and 10,000 dollars in cash, was for reporting on climate change, biodiversity and water.

Bruell-Melchior said the award was first launched in 2009 and represented Monaco’s commitment to raise awareness of the world’s environmental problems.

Last year, Inter Press Service (IPS) news agency was the winner of that award, which recognised the collective contributions of a team of IPS reporters, who also covered the U.N. Conference on Sustainable Development in Brazil last June.

J.Tuyet Nguyen, U.N. correspondent for the German Press Agency DPA, and chairman of the UNCA awards committee, told IPS the government of Monaco decided to create the prize, jointly with UNCA, in 2008 when climate issues were hitting the headlines worldwide.

“I would say that the Prince Albert II of Monaco Foundation’s participation in the annual UNCA Awards Dinner and Dance has helped highlight the importance of critical reporting on climate issues – and its continued support will encourage journalists to go into a complex industrial field to bring out the best stories,” he added.

Since the creation of the prize, “We have had enthusiastic responses from journalists around the world who devote time to find out whether government policies and U.N. actions are really working to combat climate change.”

He said the UNCA climate change award will be given out again this year on Dec. 18 in New York “thanks to Monaco’s support.”

Meanwhile, addressing a gathering at Monaco’s Museum of Oceanography last week, the secretary-general said Prince Albert I, who founded the museum, would be devastated to learn what is happening to his beloved marine environment.

“And he would barely recognise the Arctic that he explored. I myself have been to the Arctic and the Antarctic to see the effects of climate change. So has Prince Albert II,” Ban said.

“Like me, he has made climate change and sustainable development priority issues. And that is why one of his first acts on assuming the throne was to sign the Kyoto Protocol (on climate change and greenhouse gas emissions).”

“Like me, the prince understands the risks of doing nothing. And we are approaching environmental tipping points,” Ban cautioned.

In the Arctic, scientists are concerned the North Pole may soon be ice-free in summer, threatening a dangerous feedback loop.

White ice reflects the sun. Dark water does not – it absorbs warmth – and melts more ice, he said.

Another such loop is possible if the permafrost in Siberia and Alaska continues to thaw, releasing stored methane. And methane, he warned, is a far more powerful greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide.

Ban said runaway climate change is a real risk – and a threat to the global environment, to sustainable development and to the security of nations and economies.