Churches in Diabaly, central Mali, were looted and destroyed during the Islamist occupation. Credit: Marc-André Boisvert/IPS

By Bryant Harris
WASHINGTON, Jan 15 2014 (IPS)

A year after Mali’s civil war came to an end, experts here are increasingly concerned that the country risks an eventual return to violence, particularly as Malian authorities continue to marginalise the restive north while neglecting to pursue meaningful political and economic reforms. 

Indeed, a lack of equitable opportunity across Mali has caused northern Tuareg separatists to cite political and economic marginalisation as their reason for rebelling in the first place. The Tuaregs have contested Mali’s north since the 1990s, launching four separate rebellions, finally succeeding due to arms obtained from the Libyan Civil War against Muammar Gaddafi in 2011.“There have been promises made for increased development and local autonomy, but the Malian government strategy is simply to buy off the leader of the rebellion." -- J. Peter Pham

In 2012, Al Qaeda-linked groups took advantage of the insurgency and a military coup to establish control over the area, though Malian authorities were eventually able to expel the Islamist militants with the aid of French intervention. This led to a June 2013 ceasefire accord known as the Ouagadougou agreement, which allowed the government to station soldiers in the north and paved the way for democratic elections last summer.

Yet today, analysts suggest the Tauregs feel that the Malian government has not lived up to its past promises.

“The Tuaregs as a whole regret their temporary alliance with extremists who pushed them out right away but are by no means fully reconciled with the government in Bamako,” J. Peter Pham, director of the Africa Center at the Atlantic Council, a Washington-based think tank, told IPS.

“There have been promises made for increased development and local autonomy, but the Malian government strategy is simply to buy off the leader of the rebellion – but not address the underlying causes. People have to see some sort of benefit for being part of the state and that has not been the case.”

On Sunday, Malian President Ibrahim Boubacer Keita concluded a three-day trip to Mauritania, where he signed a joint statement increasing cooperation between Malian and Mauritanian security forces as France reduces its presence in Mali. Yet analysts from the International Crisis Group (ICG), a watchdog group, are warning that the country’s internal security remains fragile.

Further, a new ICG report cautions that “the urgent need to stabilise the [security] situation should not detract from implementing meaningful governance reforms and a truly inclusive dialogue on the future of the country.”

Similar sentiments recently came during an official mission to Mali by the International Monetary Fund.

“[G]rowth in Mali must be more equitable and more inclusive,” Christine Lagarde, the head of the Washington-based IMF, wrote in a blog entry last week. “This means that all sectors in Mali’s economy should have access to opportunity, including in the education sector and participate in the benefits of growth.”

Limited reconciliation

The Malian government’s inability to adequately include the north in the economic growth that Lagarde recently praised has hindered reconciliation attempts.

After the conflict, civil service workers staffing these institutions have been slow to return to the north, even as northern infrastructure is in need of rehabilitation.

The lack of public services and economic relief in northern Mali has reportedly made the Malian government even more unpopular, resulting in several protests. In late November, for instance, the Malian army opened fire at civilians attending a protest.

The ICG suggests that Malian authorities should focus on the reestablishment and improvement of judicial, health-care and education systems. The report also calls on the government to end its reliance on community-based armed groups to establish order and launch investigations into the army’s abuse and harassment of civilians.

The unrest has also hindered the shipment of humanitarian aid, while the country continues to lack the resources to restore services in the north. In October, the secretary-general reported that some 65 percent of health centres in conflict-affected areas are either partially functional or completely destroyed, while half of schools are closed.

Despite the government’s unpopularity in the north, a United Nations mission, known as MINUSMA, has worked to support Mali’s National Commission for Dialogue and National Reconciliation, established in March 2013 to foster improved relationships between the Malian government and northern separatists. But in an October report, U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon described the “dialogue and reconciliation activities” as “limited”.

Mali has also established a series of conferences focusing on northern decentralisation to soothe unrest by giving Tuareg separatists more autonomy. However, the ICG’s new analysis warns that “the meetings should be more inclusive … and result in prompt, tangible actions,” such as the delayed transference of some state resources to local authorities.

Critics of the reconciliation talks note that they are top-down initiatives from Bamako, Mali’s southern capital, rather than community-led. As a result, armed groups in the north have refused to participate in the meetings on the grounds that the government is uninterested in actual dialogue.

Volatile security

As southern Mali attempts to reconcile with the north, the security situation overall remains tenuous, with significant transitions underway.

“Because of limited resources, budget complaints, and demand elsewhere, you’ll soon be left with barely 1,000 French troops,” the Atlantic Council’s Pham says.” Most of these will be engaged in the southern part [of Mali] and not the northern two-thirds, leaving an undersized and under-equipped, predominantly African, force roughly trying to hold a very large territory.”

Rinaldo Depagne, the ICG’s West Africa director, tells IPS that while the Malian government has not violated the terms of the June 2013 ceasefire, “there’s a kind of will from the government to opt out of the frame of the agreement.”

However, Depagne believes that there is cause to be hopeful. “While certain parts of the agreement are not yet respected, that doesn’t mean they won’t be in the near future. We don’t know if they are ready to fully accept the arrangement but it’s predictable that they could.”

The U.N. secretary-general, meanwhile, found that both parties had violated the ceasefire through the “uncoordinated movement of troops”. Consequently, Malian forces and northern militias continue to clash amidst “armed banditry, new jihadi attacks, and inter-communal violence,” the report notes.

Pham also questions how successful the French intervention was in removing jihadist militants from northern Mali.

“If one believes the numbers put out by French spokesmen or African spokesmen, about 600 militants have been killed in the last year and roughly a little over 400 have been taken prisoner,” he says. “This leaves you with more than 1,000 militants who are unaccounted for and are either biding their time hiding in communities they’re well-integrated into or up in the mountains.”

In the face of northern unrest, MINUSMA has played an active peacekeeping role since France’s offensive in the north. Depagne says that while there are 6,000 MINUSMA troops in Mali right now, “there should be more than 10,000.”

Depagne suggests U.N. forces could be at “full scale” in the coming months.

Malian rebels do not have the support of most ethnic groups in the north of the country. / William Lloyd-George/IPS

By Soumaila T. Diarra
BAMAKO, Jun 12 2012 (IPS)

Tuareg and Islamist rebel groups which seized control of northern Mali in March are trying to find common ground for the joint administration of the territory. Residents of the region fear that individual and collective freedoms will not be respected if such an alliance sets up an Islamic state.

Ansar Dine, which is linked to Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Magreb, and the National Movement for the Liberation of Azawad (MNLA) captured the northern part of this West African country in the power vacuum following a March coup.

Abdoul Maïga, director of the Ahmed Baba Centre for Islamic Studies in Timbuktu, one of the main cities under rebel control, says the two groups have widely differing outlooks.

“The MNLA wants to be closer to Europe where it has contacts. In contrast, Ansar Dine is oriented towards the Arab world where it has found support. I don’t know if this support comes from governments or from specific groups, but it’s certain that Ansar Dine’s funding comes from the Middle East, particularly Qatar,” Maïga told IPS over the phone.

An accord between the Islamists and the MNLA was announced on May 26, in which they agreed to merge their armed forces and create an Islamic state in the regions of Timbuktu, Gao and Kidal. But five days later, the Tuareg rebels backed out of the agreement, stating their preference for an independent, secular state.

“The failure of the merger announced by Ansar Dine and the MNLA did not surprise me at all,” said Maïga. “The people in the northern regions of Mali – given the choice – will never agree to live in an Islamic state.”

An estimated 90 percent of Malians are Muslim, according to the country’s High Islamic Council. The northern regions, and Timbuktu in particular, have played a historically important role in the spread of Islam throughout West Africa.

“But people don’t understand what is going on now. Here, Islam has never expanded by means of jihad or any other form of violence,” said Maïga.

Negotiations between the rebel factions over the application of shari’a, Islamic law, have continued into June.

Some northern residents see the failure of the merger as proof that shari’a can’t be applied in this region, particularly in cities like Timbuktu, which must preserve their reputation of openness to continue to attract tourists.

“The northerner is by nature a free thinker. Liberty is very important to him, and that’s why 90 percent of the population doesn’t want these people in charge,” Sado Diallo, mayor of Gao, told IPS.

Ansar Dine has begun applying Islamic law in the city, including cutting off thieves’ hands and flogging smokers, according to the mayor – who at the same time lamented the increase of auto theft and other banditry. “Every day I receive SMS messages from people who complain about acts committed by militias,” Diallo said.

Far to the south, in the Malian capital, Bamako, the transitional government says that whether or not the rebels merge is immaterial. Government spokesperson Hamadoun Touré told state radio that the priority for the authorities is to relieve the suffering of residents of the north.

Outside Mali, the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) and the African Union are both worried by the possibility of a well-armed Islamic state being established in the north. During a recent visit to France, the Beninois head of state, Boni Yayi, who is also currently president of the AU, raised the possibility of an intervention by an African military force in Mali, under the aegis of the United Nations.

Mali’s three northern neighbours, Algeria, Niger and Mauritania, are also concerned. Following the unilateral declaration of independence of Azawad on Apr. 6, these countries, who in 2010 set up a joint committee to fight against terrorism and drugs smuggling in the region, met in the Mauritanian capital, Nouakchott, to support ECOWAS initiatives in Mali.

But while waiting for outside help, people in northern Mali have begun to lose patience.

Seydou Cissé, a member of the Peul militia “Ganda Iso”, in the Gao region, told IPS that the population intends to fight.

“All we want from the international community is support for the national army in the form of air strikes against Islamists who seized sophisticated weapons from Libya after the fall of Muammar Gaddafi,” he said.

“We will do the rest to liberate our land,” he said.

(END)

The little village of Chinagoder, on the Niger-Mali border, has become a refugee camp, flooded with Malian families fleeing fighting between their regular army and Tuareg rebels known as the MNLA – the National Movement for the Liberation of Azawad.

Niger is already stressed by drought and poor harvests. Credit: Catherine-Lune Grayson/IRIN

In the past month, more than 15,000 Malians have arrived across the border, entering a region of western Niger that is already stressed by drought and poor harvests. The districts of Ayourou, Koutoubou, Yassan Banibangou, Mangaïzé and Chinagoder – all in the western Tillabéri region of the country – have become the arrival point for refugees.

“Usually home to fewer than 1,700 residents, our village now holds more than 6,500 people, mostly Malian families from Ménaka and Aderaboukane who have arrived with no resources,” Zakari Djibo, younger brother of Chinagoder’s chief, told IPS.

“The influx of refugees began on Jan. 26 and grew, day by day, to the point where it overwhelmed our ability to house and care for them,” Djibo said. “Despite this, we are continuing to welcome these families in distress and give them hospitality.”

All around the village, clusters of shacks have sprung up to provide shelter for the refugees.

“Our situation is gradually improving,” Fatima Alhacen, a 39-year-old mother of six, told IPS. “We now have mats, blankets, cooking utensils and a bit more to eat, thanks to the food aid that the Nigerien government brought for us at the beginning of last week.”

Comforting a tearful 18-month-old baby, Alhacen added,”The first few days, we had to make do with millet bran that we were given by the people here – who are themselves facing problems finding food; but now we have millet flour for porridge, pâte and even rice in our daily menu.”

Clashes between Mali’s army and MNLA rebels have led to the displacement of 44,000 Malians into neighbouring countries, particularly Burkina Faso, Mauritania and Niger – which by itself has recorded the arrival of more than 15,000 refugees, according to the United Nations High Commission for Refugees.

The MNLA is demanding independence for Azawad, a region in the north of Mali – a move which has been rejected by the Malian government. At a Feb. 17 summit of the Economic Community of West African States, regional leaders also condemned the rebellion.

Humanitarian agencies have also noted the presence of a number of Malian soldiers amongst those seeking refuge in Mali. One such is Chief Warrant Officer Yaouchan Maïga, a medical orderly with Mali’s 143rd Nomad Military Company, normally based in the northern Malian town of Aderaboukane.

“We spent 11 days on alert,” Maïga told IPS,” waiting for reinforcements which never came, until our unit was attacked and destroyed.”

Along with 26 other members of his unit, he had crossed the border to Chinagoder. He said a first group of 24 soldiers – some traveling with their families – had already passed through the Nigerien village. Like them, Maïga’s group will be sent to Niamey, the capital of Niger, before returning to Mali.

Northern Mali’s armed conflict is being closely monitored by the Burkinabè authorities, who fear that their territory could become a safe haven for rebels; on its part, the government of Niger fears contagion, having experienced Tuareg rebellions of its own in the 1990s and more recently in 2007.

“Burkina Faso will not serve as a rear base for rebellion,” Djibril Bassolé, the Burkinabè Minister for Foreign Affairs and Regional Cooperation told a French radio station on Feb. 11.

This position was supported by Burkina Faso President Blaise Compaoré, who stressed that what is going on is “first, a problem between Malians”, and called for the initiation of “an inclusive dialogue” to restore peace. Compaoré met with his Malian counterpart, Amadou Toumani Touré, on the sidelines of a regional summit on education in Ouagadougou on Feb. 13.

In Niger, participants in earlier uprisings were warned against any thoughts of returning to arms by Rhissa Ag Boula, a prominent figure in the 1990s rebellion, as well as by Colonel Mahamadou Abou, the head of Niger’s High Authority for the Consolidation of Peace (a government body charged with dialogue, mediation and implementation of several peace accords) on the occasion of a Peace and Development Forum held in Arlit, northern Niger, at the end of January.

“The people will strongly resist any adventurers who might wish to take up arms again,” warned Colonel Abou.

“The recurrence of rebellion holds back development in the north of Mali,” said Bilal Ag Altinine, the representative of the Malian refugees at Chinagoder. “A country is not built by force of arms.”

He called on the Malian authorities to find a definitive solution to the problem.

“We are tired of rebellion,” said Binta Mohamed, a woman from Ménaka, the northern Mali town that the rebels first attacked on Jan. 17. “We want lasting peace so we can better fight against the poverty that surrounds us.”

(END/2012)