Irene Velez Torres, Director of the Colombian National Environmental Agency, during a panel discussion with policy experts at the Santa Marta Conference. Credit: Supplied

By Umar Manzoor Shah
SRINAGAR, India, May 6 2026 (IPS)

The First Conference on Transitioning Away from Fossil Fuels in Santa Marta, Colombia, may eventually be remembered as a defining moment in global climate politics, not because it produced a treaty or a formal negotiation outcome, but because it changed the tone, structure, and ambition of the conversation itself.

For decades, international climate diplomacy has been about managing emissions, not addressing the source of those emissions: fossil fuels. Governments continued to discuss carbon markets, offsets and adaptation funds but so too did the growth in oil, gas and coal production. Within the UN climate process itself, producer nations and powerful economic interests often blocked direct discussion of phasing out fossil fuels. However, there was no such case as Santa Marta.

The conference, co-hosted by Colombia and the Netherlands and attended by delegates from almost 60 nations, was not intended to be another COP-style negotiation. It was explicitly designed as a political and practical platform for those countries willing to move faster on the fossil fuel phase-out. That makes a difference.

“This was not a negotiating conference. This is about dialogue and looking together at what we can do and how we can apply our creativity, our collaboration, and the science to find new opportunities,” said Stientje van Veldhoven-van der Meer, Dutch Climate and Green Growth Minister.

The conference’s most important accomplishment might be the single transition from negotiation to problem-solving.

Traditional COP summits often descend into exercises in diplomatic survival, with countries fighting over language late into the night and protecting narrow interests. In Santa Marta, ministers repeatedly stressed that participants were not there to defend positions but to create solutions.

“The contrast was stark,” said Minina Talia, Tuvalu’s Minister for Home Affairs, Climate Change and Environment.

“I’ve been to a lot of COPs over the years and I’ve never felt like this. More chilled, ready to go home. We are not here to bargain. We’re here to find solutions,” he told reporters on the concluding day of the conference.

For small island states like Tuvalu, where climate change is an existential threat now rather than a future risk, this difference is significant. It is the politics of survival.

Several Concrete Results

Ireland and Tuvalu will co-host a second conference, ensuring continuity and signalling a conscious North-South partnership. A dedicated science panel will support countries and regions in their transition away from fossil fuels. Three work streams were established: pathways to transition away from fossil fuels; decarbonisation of trade balances; and new financial mechanisms to finance the transition.

These are not symbols for deliverables. They went to the core of the politics of dependence on fossil fuels.

The biggest challenge in climate politics is no longer to prove that climate change is real. It’s trying to work out how countries that rely on fossil fuel revenues can survive the transition without economic collapse, social unrest or widening inequality.

That means dealing with debt, subsidies, tax systems, labour transitions, industrial planning and trade balances. The focus on financial architecture in Santa Marta is a sign of awareness on the part of the participants.

The debate over fossil fuel subsidies was particularly important. Ministers emphasised the need for transparency on the location of fossil fuel incentives, revenues and dependencies within national economies. This is important because fossil fuels are not just an energy issue. They’re so entrenched in national budgets, banking systems, foreign policy and power structures.

The war in the Middle East, the disruption of oil supplies and the general insecurity of world energy have hastened the need for change. But unlike previous oil crises, this time renewable energy is getting cheaper and cheaper compared to fossil fuels, and electric vehicles are scaling up very fast.

Participants argued that the war has revealed not the need for more oil drilling, but the danger of fossil fuel dependence itself.

“The war really opened up peoples’ eyes to how fragile the fossil fuel system is,” a speaker said. “And this war comes at a time when renewables are cheaper than fossil fuels.

This shifts the transition from a strictly environmental imperative to a strategic economic and security priority.

Action on climate is no longer simply about saving the planet. It’s about stabilising economies, reducing geopolitical vulnerability and avoiding the financial risks of stranded fossil assets.

The reason this is a powerful shift is that finance ministers tend to move faster than environment ministers.

Another remarkable strength of Santa Marta was its insistence on being inclusive. Indigenous Peoples, parliamentarians, peasants, women, NGOs and even children were brought into the heart of the conversation.

“This is a new climate democracy, where governments are no longer the only actors making climate decisions,” said Irene Velez Torres, Director of the Colombian National Environmental Agency.

One of the strongest interventions at the conference came from Indigenous representatives, who warned that a clean energy transition without land justice would simply mean another wave of colonial extraction. Their declaration rejects a future where extraction of fossil fuels is replaced by mining for transition minerals, mega dams or industrial projects imposed on Indigenous lands without consent.

“If we are not part of building the just transition and the phase-out of fossil fuels, it will not be just,” they said in a joint declaration at the end of the conference on April 29.

This revealed one of the deepest contradictions in global climate policy: many governments speak of a green transition but continue with extractive models under a new name.

Indigenous leaders demanded free, prior and informed consent, legal recognition of the rights to their territories, direct access to climate finance and protection for land defenders at risk of criminalisation and violence.

The Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty initiative continues to be central. Tuvalu has been one of its earliest supporters, demanding a legally binding international framework to stop expansion and ensure a fair phase-out of fossil fuels.

Talia welcomed the treaty for raising the bar in terms of moral pressure and providing governments with clearer information but warned against limiting the whole transition conversation to one mechanism.

He said: “The treaty is an initiative. We want to look at all other initiatives so that we have a fair, balanced outcome.”

That’s a sign of strategic maturity. One treaty will not kill the most profitable industry in modern history.

These include UNFCCC processes, national policy, fossil fuel treaty mechanisms, regional declarations, central bank reforms and the involvement of financial institutions.

Participants highlighted China’s green lending strategies and said banking systems need to stop rewarding fossil fuel dependence and instead finance transition at scale.

Likewise, Pacific island nations are advocating for regional “fossil fuel-free zones”, supported by new declarations and intergovernmental task forces. These efforts matter because regional leadership often moves quicker than global consensus.

Hence, the choice of Tuvalu as the venue for the next conference is very significant. It’s shifting the discussion from the diplomatic capitals to one of the world’s most climate-vulnerable countries. It forces political leaders to confront the human reality of rising seas, disappearing land and threatened sovereignty.

History in the Making

Santa Marta won’t solve the fossil fuel crisis. It doesn’t stop new drilling. It does not yet impose binding obligations.But it may have done something more important, which is to make fossil fuel phase-out politically discussable at scale. For years, people saw talking straight about ending oil, gas, and coal as too radical, too unrealistic, or too politically dangerous. In Santa Marta it became the focus of the room.

If this coalition grows from 60 to 100 countries, if its outcomes feed into COP31 and national climate plans, if the finance systems start to shift, and if the Pacific conference deepens the legal momentum, then Santa Marta could be remembered not as a one-off summit but as the moment when climate diplomacy finally stopped treating the symptoms and started tackling the disease. That would be history.

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Yamide Dagnet, Senior Vice President, International at the Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC). Credit: COP30

By Joyce Chimbi
NAIROBI, Jan 15 2026 (IPS)

President Donald Trump has escalated efforts to further distance the United States from international organizations and entities focused on climate, the environment, and energy. This strategy is in step with his administration’s established approach to undermine and redirect funds and international cooperation away from climate and clean energy programs.

But where some see a catastrophic escalation, other global experts, such as Yamide Dagnet, Senior Vice President, International at the Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC), see first and foremost a continuing formalization of damaging positions already taken by the current administration.

In January 2025, President Trump initiated a second withdrawal from the Paris Agreement on climate change to limit global warming. Simultaneously, the U.S. administration began to significantly reduce funding for climate programs, withdrawing from international climate funds such as the Green Climate Fund, cancelling billions in domestic clean energy grants, halting climate research and, overall, prioritizing fossil fuels over climate initiatives.

While conceding that the moment at hand is indeed overwhelming, especially coming on the back of COP30, Dagnet told IPS that “the rest of the world must turn this challenge into an opportunity to break new ground in climate action, financing and international cooperation.”

“I have a stubborn yet grounded optimism. The path ahead will be challenging but achieving the set-out climate goals is far from impossible. This is far from a catastrophe. Only one country has withdrawn from the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC); the rest of the world is still firmly on board.”

Regarding the exit from UNFCCC, Dagnet’s colleague Jake Schmidt from NRDC, pointed out in his blog that  the legal ramifications are such that it is unsettled constitutional law whether a president can unilaterally withdraw from international agreements that the Senate gave its advice and consent to join. The Constitution specifies the entry provisions, but it is silent on the exit provisions.

Dagnet also noted that while the withdrawal from the UNFCCC is unprecedented, making the United States the only nation outside the bedrock UN Climate Treaty, “the exit is not cast in stone; a future administration could bring the country back to the fold.”

Nevertheless, the United States will be back in the headlines come January 27, 2026, when the country will technically become a non-signatory to the Paris agreement and will not be part of international climate negotiations unless the withdrawal is reversed.

“The optimism I feel is also grounded in pragmatism. To borrow the words of author James Baldwin, ‘Not everything that is faced can be changed, but nothing can be changed until it is faced.’ The U.S. administration was not represented at COP30 and still the world pushed forward a comprehensive climate action agenda to move beyond pledges through accelerated collaboration between governments, businesses, civil society, and investors.”

In his 2025 inauguration speech, Trump called oil ‘liquid gold’ and vowed to ‘unleash’ America’s fossil fuels in the form of oil and gas. Dagnet says the die was already cast on the path forward for the United States and that the world should continue to rethink, re-strategize and reorganize, for those who are for climate action are more than those against.

Trump finds an assortment of 66 UN and non-UN entities, including those focused on climate and clean energy, that are not aligned with the United States’ national interests. They include the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which is the world’s most authoritative scientific body on climate change, UN water, UN Oceans and UN Energy.

Others are the International Union for Conservation of Nature, which is the global authority on technical and policy advice on conservation, and the UN Collaborative Programme on Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation in Developing countries.

Non-UN organizations include the International Renewable Energy Agency, Renewable Energy Policy Network for the 21st Century, 24/7 Carbon-Free Energy Compact, Commission for Environmental Cooperation, Intergovernmental Forum on Mining, Minerals, and Sustainable Development, and the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services.

Concerns are rife that communities such as those in the informal settlements will be dangerously exposed to the vagaries of climate change in the face of looming budget cuts to support climate efforts. Credit: Joyce Chimbi/IPS

There are widespread concerns that the withdrawal will have far-reaching negative consequences on financing and technical support for climate and clean energy. But Dagnet reminds us that  the United States did not pay its dues to the UN in 2025. The UN Chief has expressed regret over the country’s exit from UN entities and urged the Trump administration to settle what is owed to the international body, as the payments are mandatory. The United States owes the largest share, amounting to about 22 percent of the regular budget.

Similarly, before this withdrawal, the United States was already failing to fulfill many of its climate finance commitments.  While this new development, alongside past insufficient funding pledges, signals a major retreat from international climate action and support for developing nations, that challenge is  not insurmountable.

Climate financing trackers found that even during President Joe Biden’s administration, the United States’ international climate finance contributions were insufficient and fell far short of goals. Dagnet notes that while the country’s actions on multilateralism represent a setback, multilateralism is also evolving and will hopefully be capable of navigating uncharted territories.

She hails the broad recognition that climate change urgently and sustainably requires global cooperation and collaboration. She further stressed that international cooperation would expand the climate finance basket, as financial support for climate action can come not only from governments but also from a diverse array of non-state and public-private actors.

“This withdrawal is not the end of the road.”

Dagnet is one of nine members of the GHG (Greenhouse Gas) Protocol Steering Committee, which is the primary governing body providing direction and oversight to the GHG Protocol. The Protocol provides accounting standards and tools to help the corporate sector, countries and cities track progress towards climate goals.

The development of such standards is facilitated through a transparent multi-stakeholder governance process, drawing on expertise from business, finance, governments, academia, auditors and civil society in a milestone move and landmark partnership, she says.

The GHG Protocol is leading the global harmonization of greenhouse gas accounting with the International Organization for Standardization (ISO), as part of the COP30 Action Agenda, to enable comprehensive decarbonization action. This collaborative effort will strengthen the enabling conditions (in terms of policy, benchmarking, and governance) that are paramount to achieving sectoral breakthrough and will shape the journey towards the next global stocktake, or inventory taking, on progress towards climate goals in line with the Paris Agreement.

Subnational efforts also keep Dagnet pragmatically optimistic and solutions-focused. Indeed, she felt energized after attending the Resilient Cities Forum 2025 in London, a remarkable highlight as a major international platform where global leaders and experts converged to tackle urban resilience, emphasizing collaboration, best practices and practical innovation for sustainable, equitable cities.  She was inspired by the various and clear visions for a healthier planet.

“The resolve was stronger than ever,” says Dagnet.

“Importantly, we have locally designed tools, international frameworks and corporate standards to turn our vision towards a more prosperous, healthier and greener future into our lived reality. The worst we can do is to give up our imagination and ability to innovate.”

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Oxfam and CARE Climate Justice Centre argue that wealthy nations are profiteering through climate finance loans. Credit: CARE Climate Justice Center

By Oxfam and CARE Climate Justice Center
THE HAGUE, Netherlands , Oct 8 2025 (IPS)

New research by Oxfam and the CARE Climate Justice Centre finds developing countries are now paying more back to wealthy nations for climate finance loans than they receive—for every USD 5 they receive, they are paying USD 7 back, and 65 percent of funding is delivered in the form of loans.

This form of crisis profiteering by rich countries is worsening debt burdens and hindering climate action. Compounding this failure, deep cuts to foreign aid threaten to slash climate finance further, betraying the world’s poorest communities, who are facing the brunt of escalating climate disasters.

Some key findings of the report:

• • Rich countries claim to have mobilized USD 116 billion in climate finance in 2022, but the true value is only around USD 28–35 billion, less than a third of the pledged amount.
  • Nearly two-thirds of climate finance was made as loans, often at standard rates of interest without concessions. As a result, climate finance is adding more each year to developing countries’ debt, which now stands at USD 3.3 trillion. Countries like France, Japan, and Italy are among the worst culprits.
  • Least Developed Countries got only 19.5 percent and Small Island Developing States 2.9 percent of total public climate finance over 2021-2022 and half of that was in the form of loans they have to repay.
  • Developed nations are profiting from these loans, with repayments outstripping disbursements. In 2022, developing countries received USD 62 billion in climate loans. We estimate these loans to lead to repayments of up to USD 88 billion, resulting in a 42 percent ‘profit’ for creditors.
  • Only 3 percent of finance is specifically aimed at enhancing gender equality, despite the climate crisis disproportionately impacting women and girls.

“Rich countries are treating the climate crisis as a business opportunity, not a moral obligation,” said Oxfam’s Climate Policy Lead, Nafkote Dabi. “They are lending money to the very people they have historically harmed, trapping vulnerable nations in a cycle of debt. This is a form of crisis profiteering.”

This failure is occurring as rich countries are conducting the most vicious foreign aid cuts since the 1960s. Data by the OECD shows a 9 percent drop in 2024, with 2025 projections signaling a further 9–17% cut.

As the impacts of fossil fuel-fueled climate disasters intensify—displacing millions of people in the Horn of Africa, battering 13 million more in the Philippines, and flooding 600,000 people in Brazil in 2024 alone—communities in low-income countries are left with fewer resources to adapt to the rapidly changing climate.

“Rich countries are failing on climate finance and they have nothing like a plan to live up to their commitments to increase support. In fact, many wealthy countries are gutting aid, leaving the poorest to pay the price, sometimes with their lives,” said John Norbo, Senior Climate Advisor at CARE Denmark. “COP30 must deliver justice, not another round of empty promises.”

Adaptation funding is also critically underfunded, receiving only 33 percent of climate finance, as investors favor mitigation projects with more immediate financial returns.

Ahead of COP30, Oxfam and CARE are calling on rich countries to:

Live up to climate finance commitments: Provide the full USD 600 billion for 2020–2025 and clearly outline how they plan to scale up to the agreed USD 300 billion annually, and lead on the USD 1.3 trillion Baku to Belém roadmap.

• • Stop crisis profiteering: Drastically increase the share of grants and highly concessional finance to prevent further indebting the world’s most climate-vulnerable communities.
  • Multiply adaptation finance: Commit to at least triple adaptation finance by 2030, using the COP26 goal to double adaptation financing by 2025 as a baseline.
  • Provide finance for loss and damage: The global Fund for Responding to Loss and Damage must be adequately capitalized. Victims of climate change must not continue to be ignored.
  • Mobilize new sources of finance: Raise funds by taxing the super-rich, which in OECD countries alone can raise 1.2 trillion a year, and the excess profit of fossil fuel companies globally, which could raise 400 billion per year annually.

You can read the full report here.

The CARE Climate Justice Center (CJC) leads and coordinates the integration of climate justice and resilience across CARE International’s development and humanitarian work. The CJC is an initiative powered by CARE Denmark, CARE France, CARE Germany, CARE Netherlands, and CARE International UK.

Results of a global survey by Oxfam International and Greenpeace show 8 out of 10 people support paying for public services and climate action through taxing the super-rich.

The research was conducted by first-party data company Dynata in May-June 2025, in Brazil, Canada, France, Germany, Kenya, Italy, India, Mexico, the Philippines, South Africa, Spain, the UK and the US.

The survey had approximately 1 200 respondents per country, with a margin of error of +-2.83%. Together, these countries represent close to half the world’s population.

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Excerpt:

The June Climate Talks, SB62 under the UNFCCC, in Bonn 16-26 June, Photo Credit: UN Climate Chang/Lara Murillo

By Umar Manzoor Shah
SRINAGAR & BONN, Jul 11 2025 (IPS)

This 62nd meeting of the Subsidiary Bodies (SB62) from June 16 to 26, 2025 revealed the persistent complexities and political tensions that continue to challenge multilateral climate governance. 

The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) convened its 62nd meeting of the Subsidiary Bodies (SB62) from June 16 to 26, 2025 – a critical juncture in the global climate negotiation process ahead of the 30th Conference of the Parties (COP30) set for November in Belém, Brazil.

Often referred to as a “mini-COP”, SB62 serves as a mid-year platform where negotiators and technical experts advance discussions on implementing the Paris Agreement and lay the groundwork for decisions at the COP.

While some progress was made on adaptation and procedural issues, key areas such as climate finance, technology, and scientific assessments remained contentious. Interviews with climate experts Jennifer Chow of the Environmental Defence Fund and Meredith Ryder-Rude shed light on systemic challenges within the UNFCCC process and offered insights into pathways for more effective climate action.

Jennifer Chow of the Environmental Defense Fund

Deadlock That Foreshadowed the Tense and Fractious Atmosphere

The Bonn conference brought together government delegations, UN agencies, intergovernmental organisations, Indigenous and youth representatives, and civil society observers. The Subsidiary Body for Implementation (SBI) focused on operational matters including finance, capacity-building, and gender equality, while the Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technological Advice (SBSTA) addressed scientific guidance and technical issues such as carbon markets under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement.

Brazil, as COP30 host, fielded the largest delegation with 173 provisional attendees, signalling its intent to influence the upcoming COP agenda. The Brazilian COP presidency outlined three priorities: reinforcing multilateralism, connecting climate regime outcomes with people’s everyday lives, and accelerating Paris Agreement implementation through institutional reforms.

Yet the meeting’s opening was marked by a two-day delay in adopting the agenda, largely due to disagreements over including discussions on developed countries’ finance obligations under Article 9.1 of the Paris Agreement. This early procedural deadlock foreshadowed the tense and fractious atmosphere permeating the conference.

How Scientific Discussions Remained Politically Sensitive

Adaptation emerged as a focal point, with negotiators agreeing on a refined list of global adaptation indicators, including measures related to access to financing — a key demand from developing countries. Steps were also taken toward transitioning the Adaptation Fund to operate exclusively under the Paris Agreement framework and clarifying loss and damage reporting procedures.

Nonetheless, the broader finance discussions exposed deep divides. The collective quantified goal (NCQG) of USD 300 billion, established at COP29 in Baku, continues to be a source of dissatisfaction, especially among developing nations seeking more predictable and adequate funding. These finance issues cut across multiple agenda items, influencing adaptation, transparency, and just transition talks.

Scientific discussions remained politically sensitive. Although the parties agreed to “take note” of recent scientific reports from the World Meteorological Organisation, stronger language expressing concern about current warming trends was blocked by some countries. This reflected ongoing sensitivity around acknowledging the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C temperature limit.

Streamlining, Trust, and Effective Finance Delivery

In an exclusive interview with Inter Press Service, Jennifer Chow, Senior Director for Climate-Resilient Food Systems at the Environmental Defense Fund, highlighted structural challenges impeding UNFCCC efficiency and effectiveness:

“As is true for other multilateral processes, it is nearly impossible to address a growing list of issues efficiently without a concerted effort to prioritise, simplify approaches, and partner with others who may not require budgetary support. I think this is more pertinent to focus on than funding fluctuations.”

Chow claimed that the proliferation of agenda items and ballooning delegation sizes have complicated negotiations. “There are too many agenda items—and delegations have ballooned as a result. The secretariat and bureau could closely examine the COP, CMA, and SB agendas, propose streamlining, and develop a list of agenda items to sunset over the next two years, as some issues may no longer require negotiation. In some areas, constituted bodies can take up the work. Closing agenda items does not have to equal a lack of ambition.”

She also pointed to the trust deficit within the process.

“We can focus on giving more time for areas of convergence and less ‘unlimited’ time on issues where there is no consensus. Additionally, we need to give more leadership roles to Small Island Developing States (SIDS) and Least Developed Countries (LDCs). We have conflated progress review and rule-making, and renegotiating matters that were already agreed upon can erode trust.”

On countries’ climate plans, Chow stressed the need to prioritise implementation. “A plan is a plan. Evidence of implementation and progress towards 2030 commitments should be highlighted just as much as new 2035 commitments. Let’s not lose sight of the critical decade and sprint to 2030. Stronger implementation now will result in more ambitious plans later.”

Environmental Defense Fund’s expert Meredith Ryder-Rude

Meredith Ryder-Rude, also from the Environmental Defense Fund, shed light on the reasons behind stalled adaptation finance negotiations and the challenges of ensuring funds reach vulnerable communities.

“The recent negotiations stalled because the sticking point has historically been disagreement over which funding sources can be ‘counted’ towards adaptation finance goals. There is no disagreement over the urgent need for dramatically higher adaptation finance, but political and ideological differences remain over what types of funding from developed countries are truly delivering adaptation outcomes.”

She explained the complexity of adaptation finance integration.

“Guidance directs countries to mainstream adaptation in development, economic, and financial planning. Given distrust between parties and the severe impacts and costs involved, finding middle ground is difficult. Developed country budgets are tight, and those controlling funds are often not closely involved in climate discussions or understanding of multilateral climate funds, creating a big gap to bridge.”

On improving the effectiveness of finance delivery, Ryder-Rude highlighted the importance of capacity building in recipient countries. “One of the most critical ways to ensure climate finance reaches vulnerable communities effectively is increasing absorptive and financial management capacity at the local level. Funding levels have remained largely static for decades. We focus much on unlocking more funding—the supply side—but more attention is needed on the demand side.”

She pointed to promising models emerging from developing countries. “National-level organisations serve as aggregators managing multimillion-dollar grants from multilaterals and disbursing smaller grants to local community groups. They mentor these groups to increase independence and ability to manage larger sums over time. Eventually, local organisations can manage funding directly with donors. We need more small grant programmes, more national aggregators familiar with local contexts, and generally more trusting, flexible financing—especially for adaptation.”

Empowering most vulnerable remains critical to the UNFCCC’s future effectiveness

Meanwhile, with the world approaching the COP30 in Belém, Brazil, the outcomes of SB62 reveal both the urgency and difficulty of advancing ambitious climate action. Key issues expected to dominate the COP agenda include operationalising the new collective quantified goal for climate finance, finalising rules for carbon markets under Article 6, and translating adaptation frameworks into real-world support.

Countries were expected to submit updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) aligned with the 1.5°C target; however, nearly 95 percent missed the informal February 2025 deadline, raising concerns about political will and transparency.

Brazil’s presidency faces scrutiny over inclusiveness and transparency, especially regarding its proposed Circle of Finance Ministers tasked with developing a new climate finance roadmap. Questions about Belém’s capacity to host an effective COP add another layer of complexity.

Geopolitical challenges—including the notable absence of a formal U.S. delegation due to previous administration policies—further underscore the fragility of global climate leadership. In this context, rebuilding trust, streamlining negotiating processes, and empowering the most vulnerable remain critical to the UNFCCC’s future effectiveness.

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Noor Mukadam at a protest outside the Islamabad Press Club, holding a poster demanding justice for a rape survivor. The photo was taken on September 12, 2020. She was murdered by her partner on 20 July 2021. Credit: Shafaq Zaidi

By Zofeen Ebrahim
KARACHI, Pakistan, Jun 4 2025 (IPS)

“It’s brought me some closure,” said Shafaq Zaidi, a school friend of Noor Mukadam, reacting to the Supreme Court’s May 20 verdict upholding both the life sentence and death penalty for Noor’s killer, Zahir Jaffer.

“Nothing can bring Noor back, but this decision offers a sense of justice—not just for her, but for every woman in Pakistan who’s been told her life doesn’t matter,” Zaidi told IPS over the phone from Islamabad. “It’s been a long and painful journey—four years of fighting through the sessions court, high court, and finally, the Supreme Court.”

Echoing a similar sentiment, rights activist Zohra Yusuf said, “It’s satisfying that the Supreme Court upheld the verdict,” but added that the crime’s brutality left little room for relief. “It was so horrific that one can’t even celebrate the judgment,” she said, referring to the “extreme” sadism Noor endured—tortured with a knuckleduster, raped, and beheaded with a sharp weapon on July 20, 2021.

Yusuf also pointed out that the “background” of those involved is what drew national attention.

Noor Mukadam, 27, was the daughter of a former ambassador, while Zahir Jaffer, 30, was a dual Pakistan-U.S. national from a wealthy and influential family. Her father and friends fought to keep the case in the public eye, refusing to let it fade into yet another forgotten statistic.

Still, the response has been muted—many, including Yusuf, oppose the death penalty.

The Human Rights Commission of Pakistan recorded at least 174 death sentences in 2024—a sharp rise from 102 in 2023—yet not a single execution was reportedly carried out. The last known hanging was in 2019, when Imran Ali was executed for the rape and murder of six-year-old Zainab Ansari.

However, Noor’s father, Shaukat Ali Mukadam, has repeatedly stated that the death sentence for Zahir Jaffer was “very necessary,” emphasizing, “This isn’t just about my daughter—it’s about all of Pakistan’s daughters,” referencing the countless acts of violence against women that go unpunished every day.

The HRCP’s 2024 annual report painted a grim picture of gender-based violence against women in Pakistan.

According to the National Police Bureau, at least 405 women were killed in so-called honor crimes. Domestic violence remained widespread, resulting in 1,641 murders and over 3,385 reports of physical assault within households.

Sexual violence showed no sign of slowing. Police records documented 4,175 reported rapes, 733 gang rapes, 24 cases of custodial sexual assault, and 117 incidents of incest-related abuse—a chilling reminder of the dangers women face in both public and private spaces. HRCP’s media monitoring also revealed that at least 13 transgender individuals experienced sexual violence—one was even killed by her family in the name of honor.

The digital space offered no refuge either. The Digital Rights Foundation recorded 3,121 cases of cyber-harassment, most reported by women in Punjab.

Justice Remains Elusive

But numbers alone can’t capture the brutality—or the deep-rooted disregard for women that drives it.

“We recently took a man to court and secured maintenance for twin baby girls,” said Haya Zahid, CEO of the Karachi-based Legal Aid Society (LAS). “The father divorced their young mother while she was still in the hospital—just because she gave birth to daughters.”

LAS offers free legal aid to those who can’t afford it, handling cases like rape, murder, acid attacks, forced and child marriages, and domestic violence.

Bassam Dhari, also from LAS, recalled Daya Bheel’s gruesome murder, which took place after Noor Mukadam’s but failed to stir national attention because it happened in a remote village in Sindh’s Sanghar district.

“She was skinned, her eyeballs removed, her breasts chopped off, and her head severed from her body,” said Dhari.

He said the postmortem report confirmed that she was neither raped nor sexually assaulted, and the attack did not appear to be driven by rage or revenge.

While Mukadam’s family may have found closure, justice remains elusive for thousands of Pakistani women.

“Noor Mukadam’s case is indeed a rare instance where justice was served,” said Syeda Bushra, another lawyer at the LAS.

“It’s not that there aren’t enough laws to protect women and children—far from it,” said Bushra. “There are plenty of laws, but what good are they if investigations are weak?” According to her, only a small percentage of women can seek redress. “Justice is denied or delayed every single day,” she added.

“The problem is that these laws are crafted in a social vacuum,” observed Fauzia Yazdani, a gender and governance expert with over 30 years of experience working with national governments, the UN, and bilateral development partners in Pakistan.

She acknowledged that although many progressive, women-friendly laws have been passed over the years, they’ve failed to resonate in a society resistant to change. “Laws are essential, but no amount of legislation can end violence against women if the societal mindset remains misogynistic, patriarchal, and permissive of such crimes,” she said.

Buying Justice Through Blood Money

At the same time, Dahri highlighted critical flaws in the justice system.

In Pakistan, where the death penalty remains legal under its Islamic status, such sentences can be overturned through the diyat (blood money) law, which allows perpetrators to buy forgiveness by compensating the victim’s family.

“In our country, money can buy anything,” said Dahri. “This blood money law is routinely abused by the rich and powerful to literally get away with murder.”

He stressed the urgent need to reform these laws. “Many families initially refuse compensation, but intense pressure and threats—especially against the poor—often force them to give in.”

In 2023, 10-year-old Fatima Furiro’s death might have gone unnoticed if two graphic videos—showing her writhing in pain, then collapsing—hadn’t gone viral. The resulting public outcry led to her body being exhumed. Her employer, a powerful feudal lord in Sindh’s Khairpur district, who appeared in the footage, was swiftly arrested.

He spent a year in prison before the case was closed, after Fatima’s impoverished family accepted blood money—despite forensic evidence confirming she had been raped, beaten, and tortured over time.

Shafaq Zaidi—Noor Mukadam’s school friend—stood outside the Islamabad Press Club on July 25, 2021, at the very spot where Noor had once protested. This time, Zaidi was seeking justice for Noor herself, who had been killed just days earlier, on July 20, 2021. Courtesy: Shafaq Zaidi

Law vs Prejudice

Alongside a flawed justice system, women must battle deep-rooted social taboos—amplified by relentless victim-blaming and shaming.

“In such an environment,” said Bushra, “it’s no surprise that many women, worn down by the long and exhausting process, eventually withdraw their complaints.”

“A woman’s trial begins long before she ever enters a courtroom,” said Dahri.

In Noor Mukadam’s case, the claim of a “live-in relationship”—real or fabricated—was used by the convict’s lawyer to downgrade his death sentence for rape to life imprisonment.

“A boy and girl living together is a misfortune for our society,” remarked Justice Hashim Kakar, who led the three-member bench hearing Mukadam’s case.

“Her reputation was sullied—even in death,” said Yazdani, adding that judges should refrain from moralizing and preaching.

“A judge’s verdict should rest solely on an impartial reading of the law,” said Bushra.

But as Dahri pointed out, few lawyers in Pakistan dare to say this openly. “Judges can take it personally,” he said, “and we risk facing repercussions in our very next case.”

According to Yazdani, even a few targeted reforms—like faster hearings, clearing case backlogs, setting up GBV and child protection courts, and training judges, lawyers, and police on the realities of misogyny and gender-based violence—could cut victim-blaming in half.

But she also offered a word of caution: reforms alone don’t guarantee empathy, which she called the cornerstone of real justice.

“Social change doesn’t happen overnight,” Yazdani said. “Anthropologically speaking, it takes five years for change to take root—and another ten for it to truly take hold.”

Gender balance matters in justice

Judicial gender inequality worsens the situation. Some experts argue that increasing the number of women judges and lawyers could lead to a more fair, dynamic, and empathetic justice system.

A 2024 report by the Law and Justice Commission of Pakistan (LJCP) reveals that women make up less than 20 percent of the country’s judges, lawyers, and judicial officers—an alarming gap in a nation of over 117 million women. Of the 126 judges in the superior judiciary, only seven are women—just 5.5 percent. In the Supreme Court, that number drops to two.

Meanwhile, the 26 judges of the apex court (including the chief justice) are burdened with a backlog of more than 56,000 cases—not all related to violence against women.

Bushra believes more women must be encouraged to enter the justice sector—particularly as prosecutors, police officers, and judges. “I’ve seen how distressed victims become when forced to repeat their ordeal to male officers—often multiple times,” she said.

But she emphasized that simply increasing the number of women won’t end victim-blaming or guarantee survivor-centric justice. “Everyone in the system—including women—must be genuinely gender-sensitized to overcome personal biases and deep-rooted stereotypes,” said Bushra.

Special Courts

In 2021, the government passed the Anti-Rape (Investigation and Trial) Act, leading to the formation of an anti-rape committee by the Ministry of Law and Justice to support victims, including setting up special courts nationwide. “Special investigation units with trained prosecutors now handle 77 percent of complaints, and 91 percent of cases go to special courts,” said Nida Aly of AGHS, a Lahore-based law firm offering free legal aid and part of the committee.

By 2022, Sindh had set up 382 such units. Aly noted that a survivor-centered, time-bound, and coordinated approach raised conviction rates from 3.5 percent to 5 percent. A national sex offenders registry, managed by police, was launched in 2024. In Punjab, all 36 districts now have crisis and protection centers offering legal and psychosocial support, though some face resource limitations.

Nearly five years after gender-based violence courts were established in Karachi, she sees a promising shift in how judges handle such cases. “Prosecutors now take time to prepare women complainants—something that never happened before,” she said.

However, she added, the number of such courts and sensitized judges remains a drop in the ocean compared to the overwhelming number of violence committed against women and such cases flooding the system across Sindh.

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This village is half in India and half in Pakistan. In Pakistan it is called Chilhana; on the Indian side, it's called Teetwal. Credit: Zofeen Ebrahim/IPS

By Zofeen Ebrahim
KARACHI, Pakistan, May 8 2025 (IPS)

Just after the young couple arrived at Al-Sayyed Shabistan, a quaint guesthouse in Taobat, on April 30, soldiers showed up, urging them to leave—war, they warned, could break out any moment.

Yahya Shah, guest-house owner and head of Taobat’s hotel association, told IPS over the phone, “Tourist season just began, but for two weeks the village feels like a ghost town—everyone’s hit: shopkeepers, eateries, drivers.”

Just 2 km from the tense Line of Control (not a legally recognized international border, but a de facto border under control of the military on both sides between the Indian- and Pakistani-controlled parts of the former princely state of Jammu and Kashmir), Taobat sits where India’s Kishenganga river crosses into Pakistan—reborn as the Neelum.

Tensions spiked after a deadly April 22 attack in the Indian-administered Pahalgam by The Resistance Front, killing 26 people—25 Indians and one Nepali.

India blamed Pakistan for backing TRF, calling it a Lashkar-e-Taiba front. Pakistan denied involvement, urging an independent probe. Meanwhile, pressure mounted on the Indian prime minister, Narendra Modi, to respond forcefully, as the attackers remained at large two weeks later.

The question on everyone’s mind — including Michael Kugelman, a Washington, DC-based South Asia analyst — is, “How could such a horrific attack have been carried out on soft targets in one of the most heavily militarized regions in the world?”

Taobat is the last village of Neelum Valley and the place where the Kishenganga River enters Pakistani territory and is called the Neelum river. Credit: Zofeen Ebrahim/IPS

When India crossed the line

On May 7, early morning, the intensity of the animosity between the two since the Pahalgam attack took on a serious turn when India launched a full-fledged series of attacks on Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir.

India claimed it targeted “terrorist camps” in Pakistan, stating, “No Pakistani military facilities have been targeted.”

Pakistan’s armed forces have been authorized to take “corresponding actions” following the strikes, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s office said following the attack.

The Indian attack killed 26 civilians, injuring 46. In addition, the Pakistani army reported downing five Indian jets. In retaliatory attacks by Pakistani forces, at least 10 people have been killed in Indian-administered Kashmir.

Reuters, quoting the local government on the Indian side, admitted that three fighter jets crashed in Jammu and Kashmir hours after India announced it had struck “nine Pakistani terrorist infrastructure sites across the border.”

The international community has called for restraint, with the United States urging the two sides to “keep lines of communication open and avoid escalation” the United Kingdom offering “in dialogue, in de-escalation and anything we can do to support that, we are here and willing to do…” United Nations’ Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said the international community could not “afford a military confrontation” between the nuclear-armed nations.

Tensions between India and Pakistan ripple across South Asia.

“A tense situation between Pakistan and India is always a cause for worry for others in the region,” said Reaz Ahmad, Dhaka Tribune’s editor, with over 30 years of writing about South Asian politics. Bangladeshis only “want both nations to stop the blame game and tit-for-tat actions that only worsen life for ordinary people.” These unfortunate events, said Ahmed, referring to the war-like situation, show the “people deserve far better from their leaders.”

Daily life in Taobat Bala, about 1.5 km from Taobat. The area isn’t populated; people may work in the area but live in Taobat. Credit: Zofeen Ebrahim/IPS

Closed gates, broken pacts

Following the Pahalgam attack, India and Pakistan shut borders, halted visas, expelled visitors, and downgraded missions—familiar moves in past standoffs. But this time, India suspended the 1960 water treaty, prompting Pakistan to threaten withdrawal from the 1972 Simla Agreement.

Dr. Moonis Ahmar, former chairman of the department of international relations at Karachi University, blamed leaders of both countries for “misguiding their people” and polarizing them by spewing so much vitriol. “What was the point of bringing in the unnecessary “jugular vein” conversation out of the blue?

 The ‘jugular vein’ debate

Recently, Pakistan’s army chief of staff, General Asim Munir’s characterization of Kashmir as Pakistan’s jugular vein at a diaspora event held just days before the Pahalgam tragedy, was considered provocative and a “trigger” for the massacre.

“But that is what it is, and the general only reiterated the stand taken by the Quaid,” defended Khawaja Muhammad Asif, the country’s defense minister, referring to the country’s founder, Muhammad Ali Jinnah.

Defining the jugular vein, Asif said Kashmir stirred both deep emotions and economic concerns. Recalling the lesser-known massacre of the partition, he said, “Thousands of Muslims were massacred in the Jammu region by mobs and paramilitaries led by the army of Dogra ruler Hari Singh,” adding that Muslim villagers from Jammu province were forced to evacuate to West Pakistan and were then accommodated in refugee camps in the districts of Sialkot, Jhelum, Gujrat, and Rawalpindi.

Asif, a native of Sialkot, emphasized that the economic significance of Kashmir cannot be overstated. “Kashmir is our lifeline—all our rivers, including the Jhelum, Sutlej, and even the smaller tributaries flowing through my own hometown, originate there,” he said, acknowledging that India’s recent announcement to withdraw from the pact posed a “real threat.”

Village life in Taobat Bala before the escalation of violence. Credit: Zofeen Ebrahim/IPS

What is the root of conflict?

Over the years many historians from both sides have unraveled the historical, political, and emotional fault lines dividing India and Pakistan since 1947. But Kashmir remains the stumbling block, 78 years later.

“At the time of British India’s partition in August 1947, the 565 princely states were given the option to join India, Pakistan, or remain independent—provided their people had the right to decide.” Jammu and Kashmir, a Muslim-majority state ruled by a Hindu king, Maharaja Hari Singh, initially chose to remain independent.

After tribal militias from Pakistan invaded parts of Jammu and Kashmir in October 1947—reportedly with covert support from Pakistani forces and encouragement from some local Muslims—the situation quickly descended into chaos and violence. Facing the threat, Maharaja Hari Singh signed the Instrument of Accession, ceding the state’s sovereignty to India in exchange for military assistance.

The Indian government, led by then Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru, agreed to extend help but asked Hari Singh to sign an Instrument of Accession first. The Raja agreed. The documents conferred a special status on Jammu and Kashmir and allowed it to have its constitution, a flag, and control over internal administration, except in matters of defense, foreign affairs, finance, and communications, and were subsequently enshrined under Articles 370 and 35A of the Indian Constitution.

“These rules were not just legal provisions; they were a vital protection that ensured that no non-resident could purchase immovable property in the region, and this was done to safeguard the distinct identity, local ownership, and indigenous rights of the Kashmiri people,” explained Naila Altaf Kayani, an expert in Kashmir affairs, speaking to IPS from Muzaffarabad in Pakistan-administered Kashmir.

But even before 2019, especially between 1952 and 1986, and through 47 presidential orders, the historical guarantees under the Maharaja’s Instrument of Accession had slowly been diluted and J&K’s special status steadily diminished. “India effectively dismantled the State Subject Rules that had long been in place in Jammu and Kashmir,” said Kayani.

In 2019, India finally scrapped these articles completely, and J&K became a union territory (governed directly by the central government, unlike states, which have their own elected governments with significant autonomy).

Can India and Pakistan ever make peace?

Both Asif and Ahmar doubt the Kashmir dispute will be resolved in their lifetime. And till that doesn’t happen, the thorn in their side will keep pricking. But what the latter finds befuddling is the “unstable and unpredictable” Pakistan-India relationship. “The two countries swing between total silence and sudden warmth, with no steady, consistent engagement like most nations maintain,” he said.

Ironically, it’s during the lowest points in their relationship that both Indian and Pakistani leaders stand to gain the most politically, said Kugelman. “Delhi can bolster its tough-on-terror stand and reputation as a strong and defiant administration by responding with muscle, and in Pakistan, the civilian and military leaderships, which are not terribly popular, can shore up public support by rallying the country around it in the face of an Indian threat.”

Forgotten formula or a new peace plan?

Ahmar said this is the lowest point in India-Pakistan relations he has ever witnessed.

However, “if by some miracle General Pervez Musharraf’s out-of-the-box four-point formula gets a shot in the arm,” perhaps we can begin anew, on a friendlier note,” he said, referring to the July 2001 Agra summit, hosted by Indian Prime Minister Vajpayee.

The four fixes included a gradual demilitarization of troops from both sides; no change in borders but allowing the people of Jammu and Kashmir to move freely across the LoC; self-governance without independence; and a joint supervision mechanism in the region involving India, Pakistan, and Kashmir.

But until that happens, Ahmar said, it would be best to let the territory be put under international supervision until its fate is decided. “I would say, place the region under the Trusteeship Council of the United Nations for at least 10 years,” he said.

Comprising the five permanent UN Security Council members—China, France, Russia, the UK, and the US—the Trusteeship Council aims to guide territories toward self-government or independence, either as separate states or by joining neighboring countries. The last trust territory, Palau, gained independence in October 1994. “The Trusteeship Council may have completed its mission in Palau but continues to exist on paper, under the UN Charter, chapter XII,” added Ahmar.

Columnist Munazza Siddiqui, also executive producer at Geo News, a private TV channel, advocated for yet another option: “Turn the LoC into a Working Boundary (a temporary, informally demarcated line used to separate areas, often in disputed regions or during a ceasefire, but different from the LoC, which is a military control line; something in-between the LoC and an international border), similar to the one that exists between Pakistan’s Punjab and Indian-administered J&K, as recognized under UN arrangements.

“The idea is to then shift focus towards bilateral cooperation in other areas,” she pointed out, adding, “This approach can hopefully help de-escalate the violence historically associated with the Kashmir issue.”

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Sigrid Kaag, Senior Humanitarian and Reconstruction Coordinator for Gaza, briefs the Security Council meeting on the situation in the Middle East, including the Palestinian question. Credit: UN Photo

By Dawn Clancy
UNITED NATIONS, Jan 31 2025 (IPS)

Before the three-phased ceasefire deal—proposed by President Joe Biden and dragged over the finish line by the then-incoming Donald Trump administration—silenced the bombs and drones over Gaza and allowed for humanitarian aid to flow into the strip, there was United Nations Security Council Resolution 2720.

Adopted on December 22, 2023, and tabled by the United Arab Emirates, the resolution was created to streamline and accelerate the delivery and distribution of much-needed humanitarian aid to civilians in Gaza. However, critics of the resolution say that a lack of political will and cooperation from the Israeli government and COGAT, the aid coordination arm of Israel’s military—identified by UN bodies and aid organizations on the ground in Gaza as the primary obstruction to aid delivery and distribution—paralyzed the implementation of the resolution’s mandate, unnecessarily prolonging the suffering of Palestinian civilians in the battered and bloodied enclave.

COGAT did not respond to a request for comment.

The resolution also tasked Secretary-General António Guterres to appoint a senior humanitarian and reconstruction coordinator to expedite the mandate and to “establish a UN mechanism for accelerating the provision of humanitarian relief.” For that role, he chose Sigrid Kaag of the Netherlands. She officially started the job on January 8, 2024.

“There are thousands of trucks [with humanitarian aid] trying and failing” to enter Gaza, said Lana Nusseibeh, the UAE’s ambassador to the UN, in her remarks to the Council before the vote in December 2023. “Unless we take drastic action, there will be famine in Gaza.” The situation for Palestinians, she added, is “desperate” and “unbearable.”

In the name of self-defense and security, Israeli Deputy Permanent Representative to the UN, Jonathan Miller, told Council members after resolution 2720 was adopted that Israel “will not change” its approach to the delivery and distribution of aid. In stark contrast to Nusseibeh’s warning of a looming famine in the strip, Miller said, “Hundreds of truckloads of aid enter Gaza every day… the only roadblock for aid entry is the UN’s ability to accept them.”

But Kaag chipped away at Miller’s claim in her first public briefing to the Security Council on April 24, 2024—her first official briefing was a closed session with Security Council members on January 30, 2024—which followed an Israeli airstrike on a World Central Kitchen (WCK) aid convoy in Gaza that killed seven aid workers on April 1.

Notably, before the WCK strike, leadership at the highest levels of the UN recognized the dire humanitarian situation in Gaza. Secretary-General Guterres described the humanitarian situation as “appalling.” And Martin Griffiths, the former UN relief chief, told the Security Council that “providing humanitarian assistance across Gaza is almost impossible.”

Jeremy Konyndyk, the president of Refugees International, in a televised interview, called out Israel for “actively blocking humanitarian groups” from getting into northern and southern Gaza. “What we need to see is the opening of border crossings,” said Konyndyk. “We need to see Israel doing much more to facilitate humanitarian action.”

Meanwhile, the “tragic” and unintentional WCK military strike—as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu described it in a video statement—drew heaps of condemnation and criticism from the international community, prompting Netanyahu, after a call with Biden, to make commitments to improve Israel’s approach to humanitarian aid in Gaza, which Kaag noted in her remarks on April 24. Some of these steps included an increase in the volume of aid crossing into Gaza, the temporary opening of the Erez crossing and the opening of Ashdod port for humanitarian goods.

“There’s still a lot of work to be done,” Kaag told reporters after the council meeting. She added that her mandate “requires the full cooperation of the Israeli authorities.”

However, three months after the WCK military strike, on July 29, 2024, while briefing reporters at UN headquarters in New York from Amman, Jordan, Kaag, who had just returned from a trip to Gaza, described the situation as “absolutely catastrophic” and the level of destruction as “almost incomprehensible.” When Kaag returned to New York to brief the Council on September 16, her assessment grew darker.

“Effective humanitarian operations require the right quality, quantity and a broad range of goods to meet the daily needs of civilians in Gaza. That goal is not being met.” She added that the breakdown of law and order and looting of supplies “are additional significant impediments to the UN operations in Gaza. “The operating conditions for humanitarian workers include denials, delays, a lack of safety and security and poor logistical infrastructure. This continues to hamper relief operations,” she said.

Contrary to Kaag’s briefing, Danny Danon, Israeli Ambassador to the UN, in his remarks to the council, described Israel’s humanitarian efforts as “unparalleled” for a country that was forced to go to war.

“We have gone above and beyond our obligations, aiming to improve the well-being of a civilian population embedded within the enemy,” he said. Less than a month later, on October 6, 2024, the Israeli military laid siege to north Gaza, complicating Resolution 2720’s mandate by prohibiting aid deliveries, including food and other essential supplies and trapping upwards of 65,000 Palestinians.

“We have been collectively killing ourselves to establish systems, negotiate, to get dual-use items in, to assist children that are deaf, to get their hearing aids… we’ve established the systems, the teams, the mechanism, the database, we’ve organized the suppliers,” Kaag told reporters in New York on December 10, 2024. “But there’s no substitute for political will. You can’t “ask humanitarians to do more.”

On January 17, 2025, the UN’s press office announced the temporary appointment of Kaag as special coordinator for the Middle East peace process. According to the statement, her new role “will be concurrent” with her present mandate as Gaza’s senior humanitarian and reconstruction coordinator.

Notably, as Kaag worked to implement her mandate to increase and streamline aid into the Gaza Strip, the International Court of Justice (ICJ)—the judicial body of the United Nations—ordered Israel on January 26, 2024, to take steps to prevent genocide in Gaza, including taking all measures within its power to provide adequate access to food, water, fuel, shelter and medical supplies to civilians in Gaza. The Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) issued reports of imminent famine in Gaza. Human Rights Watch (HRW) issued a report that detailed how Israeli authorities have “deliberately obstructed Palestinians’ access to the adequate amount of water required for survival.”

Amnesty International published a report on December 5, 2024, concluding that Israel is committing genocide in Gaza by “failing to facilitate meaningful access within Gaza so others, particularly humanitarian organizations, could deliver essential services and life-saving supplies.” And on November 21, 2024, the International Criminal Court (ICC) issued arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and his former Defense Minister Yoav Gallant for crimes against humanity and the “war crime of starvation as a method of warfare.”

Additionally, a recent ProPublica investigation revealed that two humanitarian agencies within the US government had concluded last spring that “Israel had deliberately blocked deliveries of food and medicine into Gaza.” The investigation claims that former US Secretary of State Antony Blinken rejected the agency’s findings.

Despite multiple attempts by IPS to interview a variety of humanitarian aid organizations on the implementation of resolution 2720 and its impact on the ground in Gaza—including whether Kaag has effectively executed her ongoing mandate and whether Israel played a primarily obstructive role in the process—some, due to the issue’s sensitivity, declined to speak on the record.

A spokesperson for Islamic Relief did, however, provide IPS with an email statement.

“UN resolution 2720 did not deliver on its mandate to get more humanitarian aid to people in Gaza. It should have led to a massive surge in aid, but instead the amount of aid getting into Gaza decreased even further. Israel has continued to use starvation and denial of aid as a weapon of war, violating international law and UN resolutions with complete impunity.”

A series of humanitarian access snapshot reports published by a group of international humanitarian organizations operating in Gaza also provides insight into the challenges aid workers face despite what Security Council Resolution 2020 has tried to accomplish. These include, according to available snapshots, denials and delays in the delivery of food, medical and building supplies, forced displacement of humanitarian staff and multiple incidents of the Israeli military targeting areas close to aid distribution sites.

After 15 months of war, President Biden, alongside the Trump administration, announced a three-phased ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas, the armed group that attacked Israel on October 7, 2023. The deal’s first phase, which began on January 19, called for a surge in humanitarian aid to Gaza.

The UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) has reported that through “interactions with the Israeli authorities and the guarantors for the ceasefire deal,” 915 aid trucks crossed into the Gaza Strip on Monday, January 20, and 897 entered on Tuesday. OCHA estimates that a daily average of 76 trucks carrying humanitarian aid entered Gaza in December 2024. Currently, the flow of aid into Gaza and other critical supplies continues as the ceasefire appears to be holding. It updates humanitarian aid daily.

Still, the uptick in trucks entering Gaza, notably more than the 600 a day stipulated in the ceasefire agreement, has some wondering why aid has been so severely obstructed for the last 15 months.

“You can make the argument that it was more difficult to deliver supplies during Israel’s military campaign than it is during a ceasefire,” said Mouin Rabbani, a nonresident fellow at the Center for Conflict and Humanitarian Studies. However, he added that the sudden surge in aid “shows that there was a decision, a policy to starve the Gaza Strip.”

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Togo's President, Faure Gnassingbé

By Promise Eze
ABUJA, Dec 18 2024 (IPS)

In May 2024, Togo’s President Faure Gnassingbé signed a new constitution, transitioning the country from a presidential to a parliamentary system. Under this new framework, lawmakers are responsible for electing the president.

Supporters of the reforms argue that this transition diminishes Faure Gnassingbé’s powers by making the presidency a largely ceremonial role. Human Rights Minister Yawa Djigbodi Tségan claimed the changes would improve democracy in the country. However, the opposition has called it a “constitutional coup,” accusing Gnassingbé of using it to entrench his power by removing term limits.

The new constitution extends presidential terms from five to six years and establishes a single-term limit. However, the nearly 20 years that Gnassingbé has already been in office will not be included in this count.

The reforms were passed by a parliament dominated by the ruling Union pour la République (UNIR) party, led by Gnassingbé. Despite public opposition, the president implemented the amendments after his party secured a majority in parliament.

A History of Power and Repression

The Gnassingbé family’s dominance began with President Gnassingbé Eyadéma, who seized power in 1967, just a few years after Togo gained independence from France. Eyadéma ruled for 38 years, during which he removed presidential term limits in 2002. His regime was marked by severe repression and allegations of human rights abuses, including violent crackdowns on protests and political assassinations.

Human rights organizations like Amnesty International frequently condemned Eyadéma’s government for its brutality, but Eyadéma dismissed these claims as part of a denigratory campaign against him, insisting that true Togolese democracy was based on security and peace.

After Eyadéma’s death in 2005, his son, Faure Gnassingbé, was installed as president by the military, sparking widespread protests and violence. Faure has since won disputed elections in 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2020. Despite reinstating term limits in 2019, they were not applied retroactively, allowing Faure to remain in office until at least 2030.

Gnassingbé’s Constitutional Façade

Many critics argue that the recent constitutional changes are simply a cover for Faure Gnassingbé to maintain control. Under the new system, the president will serve a largely ceremonial role, while real power will rest with the “president of the council of ministers,” a position that is expected to go to Gnassingbé himself.

In the period leading up to the vote in April, the government took measures to restrict civil liberties, including banning protests, arresting opposition leaders, and preventing the Catholic Church from deploying election observers. Foreign journalists were also barred from reporting on the events.

Abdul Majeed Hajj Sibo, a political analyst based in Ghana, told IPS that the reforms are a façade designed to give the illusion of democracy.

“Even the elections that keep bringing Faure back to power are manipulated. This constitutional façade is meant to deceive the Togolese people into believing there is change, but nothing has really changed,” Sibo said.

Faure’s rule is part of a broader trend of “strongman politics” in Africa, argues Sizo Nkala, a Research Fellow at the Centre for Africa-China Studies at the University of Johannesburg. He notes that, like many other African leaders, Faure has used a combination of patronage, violence, ethnic favoritism, sham elections, and bogus constitutional amendments to stay in power.

“This is a common playbook used by dictators across the continent,” Nkala said.

Nkala posits that while Togo has effectively switched to a parliamentary system, similar to South Africa, the environment in which the elections take place makes all the difference.

“South Africa is a vibrant, multiparty democracy where elections are reasonably free and fair. This is why the African National Congress (ANC), which has governed the country since 1994, lost its majority in the May elections and was forced to form a coalition government with other parties. Moreover, South African legislators do follow their party lines but also enjoy a degree of autonomy. The same cannot be said of the Togolese parliament and electoral process. Elections are rigged frequently, and parliamentarians do not have the latitude to act according to their own convictions. Unlike in South Africa, there is no real separation of powers between the executive and legislature in Togo, which has given rise to the dictatorship and authoritarianism we see today,” he added.

Opposition Under Fire

The opposition in Togo has long faced a harsh political environment. Protests demanding democratic reforms have often been met with government crackdowns. After Eyadéma’s death in 2005, Faure’s rise to power was met with mass protests that led to the deaths of up to 500 people, and many were displaced.

The slogan “Faure Must Go” has become a rallying cry, but government crackdowns have consistently stifled opposition efforts.

“The last thing the Gnassingbé regime will want to see is a formidable opposition outfit; hence it has thrown spanners in the operations of the opposition. This is part of the reason the opposition won only 5 out of the 113 seats in parliament in the April elections,” Nkala told IPS.

He adds: “The Togolese opposition has struggled to mount a unified challenge to the Gnassingbé regime because they work in a very difficult environment where their activists could be subjected to violence, jailed arbitrarily, abducted, or even killed without recourse to justice for merely exercising their constitutional rights of dissent, freedom of association, and speech.”

Analysts also say that cracks and disputes among the Togolese opposition are also a limiting factor.

“The opposition needs to unite and fight as a single bloc, but they have been unable to do so,” Sibo told IPS. Boycotts of elections by opposition factions in the past have only strengthened Gnassingbé’s grip on power, he added.

Kwesi Obeng, a socio-political and inclusive governance expert at the University of Ghana, told IPS that it would be difficult for the opposition to make any headway not just because of its fragmentation but also because a tiny political and economic elite with very close ties to the Gnassingbé family has effectively captured the state of Togo and all its institutions. This dominance over state power and resources, he says, has made it very difficult for any group to break through.

He argued that this situation has resulted in wealth being concentrated in the hands of a few individuals.

“Many people live below the poverty line. In fact half of the Togolese living in rural areas—about 58%—really live in poverty. Additionally, about a quarter of those living in urban areas also live below the poverty line. So, you have a significant portion of the population living precarious lives, with barely any jobs, income, or access to basic services,” Obeng said.

Despite the ruling party’s dominance, the resilience of the opposition shows that there are still those willing to risk their lives for change, Nkala notes, adding that the opposition’s persistence, despite the odds, is a testament to the determination of millions of Togolese people who want to see an end to the Gnassingbé dynasty.

International Response and France’s Role

France has maintained a close relationship with the Gnassingbé family, which has fueled resentment in Togo. After Faure’s re-election in February 2020—an election condemned as rigged by the opposition—France sent him a congratulatory letter, sparking controversy.

Critics, like Sibo, argue that France continues to support the autocratic regime for economic reasons.

Former French President Jacques Chirac once  referred to President Gnassingbé Eyadéma as a “friend to France and a personal friend,” despite the human rights abuses associated with his regime.

Sibo believes this loyalty to the Gnassingbé dynasty has contributed to France’s reluctance to challenge the regime.

“As long as it serves their interests, France will turn a blind eye to the atrocities committed by the Gnassingbé family,” Sibo said.

Obeng agrees with Sibo’s views. “France runs the port, a major contributor to the Togolese GDP, and many major businesses in the country are partly French-owned. Therefore, I think the French government is not interested in unsettling the status quo regarding the governance system and structure in Togo. With Sahelian countries having driven the French out of that part of the continent, France now has very little foothold. As a result, they are reluctant to destabilize a country like Togo, which could potentially join the ranks of nations that have expelled the French from their territory.”

Efforts by the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) and the African Union (AU) to address Togo’s political issues have been limited. ECOWAS’s failure to act on the situation in Togo damages its reputation as a leader in promoting regional stability and development, analysts say.

In 2015, ECOWAS attempted to introduce a two-term presidential limit across its member states, but this was blocked by Togo and Gambia.

Experts like Nkala are of the opinion that these organizations lack the legal authority to intervene effectively and that reforms are needed to give them real powers to enforce democratic protocols in member states.

Concerns are mounting over President Faure Gnassingbé’s role in the US-Africa Business Summit. Observers have pointed out that Western nations and organizations often do not authentically champion democracy in Africa. Critics claim these entities tend to prioritize their own agendas, often siding with questionable governments instead.

The Way Forward

With Faure’s party holding a strong majority in parliament, it seems unlikely that the regime will fall anytime soon, critics told IPS.

Nkala believes that unless Gnassingbé loses control of the military or faces a significant challenge from within his own party, political change is unlikely in the near future.

“The military is key to Faure’s power, and as long as they remain loyal, he will continue to rule Togo,” Nkala said.

Obeng says that as long as the elite continue to control the state machinery, including organizing elections, it will be very difficult for the opposition to unseat the government.

He added: “The opposition has made it clear that the elections were rigged, which is why some members chose not to participate. The Togolese opposition has already published its verdict that the elections were manipulated, and we need to take their charges seriously.”

However, Sibo remains hopeful that with greater unity, the opposition could eventually challenge the regime. “The opposition must focus on building a unified front,” he said. “If they can do that, there is still a chance for change.”

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Christian Thierfelder, Principal Scientist at CIMMYT, poses in a field that is being tested for conservation agriculture at Henderson Research Station, Harare, Zimbabwe. Credit, Busani Bafana/IPS

By Busani Bafana
BULAWAYO, Dec 5 2024 (IPS)

On the dusty plains of Shamva District in Zimbabwe, Wilfred Mudavanhu’s maize field defies drought.>

With the El Niño-induced drought gripping several countries in Southern Africa, Mudavanhu’s maize crop is flourishing, thanks to an innovative farming method that helps keep moisture in the soil and promotes soil health.

Once harvesting just 1.5 tonnes of maize (30-50 kg bags) each season, Mudavanhu’s harvest jumped to 2.5 tonnes of maize (50 bags) in the 2023/2024 cropping season.

Mudavanhu is one of many farmers in Zimbabwe embracing conservation agriculture, a method that prioritizes minimal soil disturbance, crop rotation, and soil moisture conservation. The practice is complemented by other methods such as timely control of weeds, mulching, and farming on a small plot to gain high yields.

Researchers say the conservation agriculture method is proving a lifeline for farmers grappling with climate change.

For more than 20 years, the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) has promoted research on conservation agriculture in Southern Africa with the aim of getting farmers to increase their crop yields.

Under conventional farming, smallholder maize yields have often been below 1 tonne per hectare in Zimbabwe, according to researchers. Adopting CA practices has led to yield increases of up to 90 percent. While in Malawi farmers have experienced maize yields increased by up to 400 percent, crops are integrated with nitrogen-fixing trees such as Faidherbia albida. In Zambia, maize yields under conventional farming have been at 1.9 tonnes per hectare, and these have increased to 4.7 tonnes per hectare where farmers have used conservation agriculture practices.

But beyond high yields, conservation agriculture saves moisture and enhances soil health, offering farmers a long-term solution to the growing problem of soil degradation, a looming threat in the face of climate change, researchers said.

“As the climate crisis deepens, CA has become essential for Southern African farmers, offering a resilient, climate-smart approach to boost productivity and withstand climate change impacts, reinforcing sustainable food security,” Christian Thierfelder, a principal scientist at CIMMYT, told IPS, explaining that CA could be a game changer for the rainfed cropping system in the region.

About 3 million farmers in Southern Africa are practicing CA, Thierfelder said, adding: “The more climate change hits as seen in recent droughts, the more the farmers will adopt CA because the traditional way of doing agriculture will not always work anymore.”

The use of machines is attracting smallholder farmers to adopt conservation agriculture. CIMMYT has researched using machines suitable for smallholder CA systems.

The machines have been found to increase intercropping methods farmers use while addressing the challenges of high labour demands associated with conservation agriculture.

Traditionally, farmers spend hours digging planting basins, a time-consuming and labor-intensive process. The basin digger has mechanized the land preparation stage, reducing the number of people needed to dig the basins.

Thierfelder said CIMMYT has partnered with registered service providers in Zimbabwe and Zambia, who offer mechanization services that improve farming efficiency and reduce labour demands. One such innovation, the basin digger—a cost-effective, low-energy machine—reduces labour by up to 90 percent.

Cosmas Chari, a farmer and service provider in Shamva, used to spend a day digging basins for planting, but now he takes an hour using the basin digger.

Mudavanhu became a mechanization service provider after integrating CA with mechanization. As a service provider, Mudavanhu hires out a two-wheeled tractor, a sheller, and a ripper to other farmers practicing CA.

Similarly, another farmer, Advance Kandimiri, is also a service provider practicing CA.

“I started being a mechanization service provider in 2022 and adopted CA using mechanization,” said Kandimiri, who bought a tractor, a sheller, and a two-row planter.

“Conservation agriculture is more profitable than conventional farming that I was doing before I learned about CA,” said Kandimiri.

Data from CIMMYT’s research indicates that farmers adopting CA practices can earn extra income of approximately USD 368 per hectare as a result of getting higher yields and reduced input costs.

Conservation Agriculture in the Region

Farmers across Southern Africa have found success after adopting CA practices with remarkable results.

In 2011, during a visit to Monze in Zambia’s Southern Province, Gertrude Banda observed the significant benefits of CA firsthand. Farmers practicing CA for over seven years demonstrated how planting crops without tillage using an animal traction ripper led to reduced labour in land preparation and improved crop yields.

Banda says she was motivated by this experience to adopt CA on her own 9-hectare farm, where she grows cowpeas, groundnuts, and soybeans. She practices crop rotation, alternating maize with various legumes to enhance soil fertility and improve crop yields. Additionally, she uses groundnut and cowpea residues for livestock feed. She earned about USD 5,000 from selling her soya crop.

“Today, my entire farm follows CA principles,” Banda said. “All my crops are planted in rip lines, and I rotate maize with various legumes to maintain soil health.”

Over 65,000 farmers in Malawi and 50,000 in Zambia have adopted CA, according to CIMMYT, whose research shows that farmer education, training, and technical guidance are vital for farmers to make the shift.

However, widespread adoption of conservation agriculture has remained low despite its acknowledged advantages. Smallholder farmers face challenges in accessing inputs and equipment, said Hambulo Ngoma, an agricultural economist at CIMMYT.

Besides, farmers have limited knowledge of effective weed control and struggle with short-term yield uncertainties, which can discourage consistent practice, Ngoma said.

“While CA has proven its worth, adoption rates are still relatively low across Southern Africa,” Ngoma said, adding, “Many farmers lack the resources to invest in the tools and training required for effective implementation.”

Fruitful Partnerships to Promote Conservation Agriculture

Blessing Mhlanga, a cropping systems agronomist with CIMMYT’s Sustainable Agrifood Systems program, said the success of CA goes beyond technology and techniques but is hinged on education and including CA principles in national policies. In Zambia, for instance, CIMMYT, in partnership with the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), helped design a mechanization strategy that has paved the way for mechanized CA to be incorporated into government-led agricultural programs.

“Technologies like intensification with Gliricidia, a fast-growing nitrogen fixing tree, strip cropping, and permanently raised beds are now part of Zambia’s national agriculture agenda,” explained Mhlanga, who noted that the adoption of CA by smallholder farmers can be transformative, particularly in regions reliant on rainfed cropping.

Mhlanga said with more than 250 million hectares of land currently under CA globally and adoption rates of the CA practices increasing by 10 million hectares annually, the future of CA is promising. However, much work remains to be done in providing smallholder farmers like Mudavanhu with the right tools and knowledge to adopt conservation agriculture fully.

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COP 29/CMP 19/CMA 6 closing plenary Credit: Vugar Ibadov/UNFCC

By Joyce Chimbi
NAIROBI & BAKU, Nov 26 2024 (IPS)

The culmination of bitter, difficult, and challenging climate negotiations concluded with an announcement from the COP29 Presidency of Azerbaijan of the “agreement of the Baku Finance Goal—a new commitment to channel USD1.3 trillion of climate finance to the developing world each year by 2035.” This is on top of the USD 300 billion that the developed world is to extend to developing nations annually by 2035.

Developed nations appear perturbed by the outrage from the Global South as the COP29 Presidency big-up what is for all intents and purposes a bad deal for vulnerable nations on the frontlines of climate change. Once an annual inflation rate of 6 percent is factored into the new goal, USD 300 billion is not the tripling of funds that is being made out to be.

The Baku deal indicates that “developed countries will lead a new climate finance goal of at least USD 300 billion per annum by 2035 from all sources, as part of a total quantum of at least USD 1.3 trillion per annum by 2035 from all actors, with a roadmap developed in 2025.”

Ambiguous Climate Finance Promises

The promise of a USD 1.3 trillion of climate finance in line with what developing countries wanted rings hollow, for the text does not lay out the road map for how the funds are to be raised, postponing the issue to 2025. Even more concerning, Baku seems to have set things in motion for wealthy nations to distance themselves from their financial responsibility to vulnerable nations in the jaws of a vicious climate crisis.

COP29 text “calls for all actors to work together to enable the scaling up of financing to developing country Parties for climate action from all public and private sources to at least USD1.3 trillion per year by 2035.”

In this, there is a mixture of loans, grants, and private financing. Essentially, the Baku agreement reaffirms that developing nations should be paid to finance their climate actions, but it is vague on who should pay.

Baku to Belém Road Map

For finer details, there is a new road map in place now known as the “Baku to Belém Road Map to 1.3T.” COP29 text indicates that the “Baku to Belém, Brazil’ roadmap is about scaling up climate finance to USD 1.3 trillion before COP30 and that this is to be achieved through financial instruments such as grants, concessional as well as non-debt-creating instruments. In other words, the roadmap is about making everything clear in the coming months.

In climate finance, concessionals are loans. Only that they are a type of financial assistance that offers more favourable terms than the market, such as lower interest rates or grace periods. This is exactly what developing nations are against—being straddled with loans they cannot afford over a crisis they did not cause.

Article 6 of Paris Agreement: Carbon Markets

Beyond climate finance, there are other concerns with the final text. Although it has taken nearly a decade of debate over carbon trading and markets, COP29 Article 6 is complex and could cause more harm than good. On paper, the carbon markets agreements will “help countries deliver their climate plans more quickly and cheaply and make faster progress in halving global emissions this decade, as required by science.”

Although a UN-backed global carbon market with a clear pathway is a good deal, it falls short on the “transparency provision” as the agreement does not address the trust crises compromising current carbon markets. Countries will not be required to release information about their deals before trading and that carbon trading could derail efforts by the industrialized world to reduce emissions as they can continue to pay for polluting, and this will be credited as a “climate action.”

Climate Funds Fall Short

The Loss and Damage Fund seeks to offer financial assistance to countries greatly affected by climate change. There is nonetheless delayed operationalisation and uncertain funding, as COP29 did not define who pays into the fund and who is eligible to claim and draw from the fund.

The Adaptation Fund was set up to help developing countries build resilience and adapt to climate change. Every year, the fund seeks to raise at least USD 300 million but only receives USD 61 million, which is only a small fraction—about one-sixth—of what is required.

Final Text Quiet on Fossil Fuels

The final COP29 text does not mention fossil fuels and makes no reference to the historic COP28 deal to ‘transition away from fossil fuels’. Climate change mitigation means avoiding and reducing emissions of harmful gases into the atmosphere.

Fossil fuels are responsible for the climate crises, but the COP29 text on mitigation is silent on the issue of fossil fuels and does not therefore strengthen the previous COP28 UAE deal. Saudi Arabia was accused of watering down the text by ensuring that “fossil fuels” do not appear in the final agreement. They were successful, as the final text states, “Transitional fuels can play a role in facilitating the energy transition.”

Earlier, while welcoming delegates to COP29, Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev left no one in doubt about his stand on fossil fuels, saying that oil and gas are a “gift from God,” praising the use of natural resources including oil and gas, and castigating the West for condemning fossil fuels while still buying the country’s oil and gas.

Against this backdrop, COP29 negotiations were never going to be easy, and although the Summit overran by about 30 hours more than expected, it was certainly not the longest COP, and it will certainly not be the most difficult as Baku has successfully entrenched bitter divisions and mistrust between the developed and developing world.

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Action: Just Transition Credit: UN Climate Change/Kamran Guliye

By Joyce Chimbi
BAKU, Nov 19 2024 (IPS)

The industrial revolution set the ball rolling towards global warming. Today, developing nations are on the frontlines of a climatic carnage and its snowballing effects. Developed nations bear a financial responsibility to provide climate finance to developing nations, as financing the transition to a low-carbon economy is an urgent, critical matter.

This year, 2024, is already on track to become the hottest in recorded human history. Decarbonization will help meet the Paris Agreement goals, avoid climate catastrophe and safeguard the planet for generations. It is for this reason that COP29 prioritised negotiations towards a New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) on climate finance.

NCGQ is a key element of the 2015 Paris Agreement. It seeks to set a new financial target to support climate action in developing nations post-2025. In 2009, during the Copenhagen Climate Change Conference, a climate finance goal was set at USD 100 billion per year. For many years, the goal remained elusive and was only fully achieved in 2022.

The current goal to finance climate action in developing countries for the period 2020-2025 is USD 100 billion. In the post-2025 period, a new global goal to finance climate action is needed. This is the genesis and basis for COP29 Baku NCQG on climate finance.

Research shows that the “concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has increased from approximately 278 parts per million in 1750, the beginning of the industrial era, to 420 parts per million in 2023. The rise in heat-trapping carbon dioxide—and other greenhouse gases—is the primary reason for the planet’s soaring temperatures.”

With soaring temperatures, climate-driven disasters and the infinite cost of climate change are edging closer to reaching irreversible highs. For this reason, climate finance needed to reverse and halt the pace of climate change is no longer in the billions but trillions. Meanwhile, the signatories of the Paris Agreement are currently working on the third generation of nationally determined contributions (NDCs).

New NDCs will be submitted by February 10, 2025 and will incorporate the Global Stocktake agreed at COP28. The Global Stocktake evaluated progress on climate action at the global level against the goals of the Paris Agreement. NDCs are efforts each country commits to take to reduce emissions and adapt to climate change.

Within this context, the new collective quantified goal on climate finance is critical, as amounts of funds set aside for the NCQG will determine whether developing countries can, and to what extent finance their respective climate action in line with their national commitments or the NDCs.

UNFCCC’s Standing Committee on Finance estimates that the cost of implementing the third-generation NDCs will be USD 5.8-USD 5.9 trillion cumulatively by 2030. Developing countries are asking for at least USD 1 trillion in annual public support for the world’s most vulnerable nations to finance climate action once the current financial commitment of USD 100 billion lapses in 2025.

Delegates from developing nations say the current financing landscape is untenable as nearly 69 percent of all climate finance is provided in loans, entrenching and deepening existing inequalities and exacerbating debt crises in climate-vulnerable poor countries.

The global South is overwhelmingly asking for not less than USD 1 trillion per year in public granting support to replace the current USD 100 billion and they say that this is a drop in the ocean against the global GDP. The world generates nearly USD 100 trillion in GDP every year.

A fraction of that—just USD 1 trillion invested into climate action in developing nations—could drive a much-needed energy transition. A green revolution would decarbonise the economy and environment and rescue the world’s vulnerable, poor and underdeveloped nations from the jaws of a climate catastrophe before it is too late.

Back in 2009, acknowledging and taking responsibility for their substantial contribution to the climate crisis, developed countries agreed to mobilise USD 100 billion of climate finance a year by 2020 to run through 2025. Today, in Baku, developed countries are being asked to lift the billions into the trillion bracket. With only days to go until the end of the COP29 summit, it remains to be seen whether, at last, rich countries will agree to replace billions with trillions.

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Protesters at COP29 call for climate justice. Credit: Isaiah Esipisu/IPS

By Isaiah Esipisu
BAKU, Nov 16 2024 (IPS)

African environmental activists at the ongoing climate summit (COP29) in Baku have called on climate financiers to stop suffocating poor countries with unbearable loans in the name of financing climate adaptation and mitigation on the continent.

Just a few months ago, a wave of protests by young people rocked the East and West African regions, protesting against exorbitant taxes that were being imposed on them for the governments to raise extra finances to service foreign loans.

“We reject loans or any type of debt instrument for a continent that had no role in warming this planet; we indeed refuse to borrow from the arsonists to put out fire they lit to burn our livelihoods,” said Dr. Mithika Mwenda, the Executive Director at the Pan African Climate Justice Alliance (PACJA).

According to PACJA, between 70 and 80 percent of all the finances from the Green Climate Fund (GCF) to African countries come in the form of loans, through intermediaries, and by the end of the day, only some lucky climate-burdening communities can access the money—estimated at about 10 percent of the total funds disbursed.

Dr. Mithika Mwenda during Africa Day at COP29. Credit: Isaiah Esipisu/IPS

“We demand these finances be directed first and foremost toward those who are most exposed to climate risks and least able to adapt, said Mwenda. “This means moving beyond fragmented and delayed funding and toward a reliable, affordable, accessible and timely flow of finance (in the form of grants) that reflects the actual scale of the crisis,” he said during Africa Day, an annual event organized by the African Development Bank on the sidelines of COP29.

Several examples mitigation and adaptation loans were touted during the event which would mean that African taxpayers would be required to repay loans of more than USD 1.6 billion.

“Some of these projects do not have footprints of the target communities in terms of prioritization,” said Charles Mwangi, a Nairobi-based climate activist.

“Communities need to take lead in decision-making and framing of these projects,” he said, noting that most of the finances are lost in expensive air tickets for consultants who are based abroad, hotel expenses and allowances.

On the contrary, Kenya is piloting a program known as ‘Financing Locally-Led Climate Action (FLLoCA).’ A 5-year initiative jointly supported by the Government of Kenya, the World Bank and other donors aimed at delivering locally led climate resilience actions and strengthening county and national governments’ capacity to manage climate risk.

“We are advocating for such policies that position adaptation at the forefront, not as an afterthought,” said Mwenda. “We amplify the voices of local organizations and grassroots leaders in these discussions, so global commitments reflect the priorities on the ground,” he said.

At COP29, discussions on the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) offer a critical moment to reshape global financing in a way activists believe will truly address Africa’s needs.

“It is essential that adaptation finance be needs-based, mobilized from public finances in the Global North, and be grant-based, with resources that consider the private sector as a third or fourth solution and not the first solution,” said Mwenda.

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Cart laden with firewood in Gonzoma, Zimbabwe. Woodpoaching for household fuel is having an impact on forests in Zimbabwe. Credit: Jeffrey Moyo/IPS

By Jeffrey Moyo
CHIMANIMANI, Zimbabwe, Nov 6 2024 (IPS)

Linet Makwera (28) has a baby strapped on her back as she totters barefoot, picking tiny pieces of wood on both sides of a dusty and narrow road, peering fearfully at people passing by along the road in Chimanimani’s Mutambara area in Gonzoma village located in Zimbabwe’s Manicaland Province, east of the country.

Her fears, Makwera says, are the patrolling plain clothes police officers, who often target people, cutting down the few available trees in search of firewood.

In the midst of firewood shortages countrywide, more than 300,000 trees were destroyed between 2000 and 2010, according to Zimbabwe’s Ministry of Environment and Climate Change.

In fact, in 2011, the Forestry Commission of Zimbabwe found out that the country was losing about 330,000 hectares of forests per year. According to Global Forest Watch in 2010, Zimbabwe had 1.01 Mha of natural forest, extending over 2.7 percent of its land area. In 2023, it lost 4.67 kha of natural forest, equivalent to 3.27 Mt of CO₂ emissions.

A slight drop from the previous one, currently, Zimbabwe’s annual deforestation rate is estimated to be at 262,348.98 hectares per annum, the Forestry Commission says.

According to UNDP in 2022, the use of local forests for fuel wood has also been one of the many drivers of deforestation in the country.

UNDP has been on record, saying presently, fuel wood accounts for over 60 percent of the total energy supply in the country and almost 98 percent of rural people rely on fuel wood for cooking and heating.

The Forestry Commission says up to 11 million tons of firewood are needed for domestic cooking, heating and tobacco curing every year in Zimbabwe.

Zimbabwe is ranked top of the United Nations-ranked Least Developed Countries (LDCs) that have battled the highest rate of deforestation in the world, as many rural dwellers here depend on firewood for cooking.

Yet still, even as the felling of trees for firewood gets worse and worse in Zimbabwe, it is a crime for anybody to be found cutting trees for any purpose without the authorities’ blessing.

If caught on the wrong side of the law, a wood poacher can be fined USD 200 to 5,000

Like many villagers domiciled in her remote area, Makwera has to battle with firewood deficits as the forests disappear under massive deforestation.

But the laws prohibiting people from cutting down trees have also meant hard times for many, like Makwera.

Yet despite her struggles to find firewood often in order to cook food for her family, she (Makwera) has had to soldier on, just like many other villagers in her area.

With even the hills and mountains now running out of firewood in Makwera’s village, life has never been the same for the villagers, as they do not have electricity, which, even though it might have been there, would not have saved any purpose amid daily power cuts gripping the Southern African nation.

“Finding firewood is now a huge challenge. Yes, we buy. We have no choice. We suffer to find the firewood. In the hills and mountains where we used to find firewood, there is now nothing,” Makwera told IPS.

Named using vernacular Shona, a tsotso stove typically is a tin with holes pricked into it, with a few tiny sticks stashed inside the home-made stove to produce some fire heat needed for cooking.

Stung by the growing firewood deficits, Zimbabwean villagers are even resorting to buying firewood from woodpoachers moving around in scotch carts touting for customers.

Such are many, like 33-year-old Tigere Mhike, also a resident of Gonzoma village, who said he has been for a long time earning his living through selling firewood to the desperate villagers.

He does this illegally, and in order to escape the wrath of law enforcers, Mhike said he and his assistant often operate under the cover of darkness in their search for the wooden gold.

“Where we live here, there are now too many people who are crowded. Some pieces of land that had plenty of firewood are now occupied by more and more people. We now have to travel very long distances, waking up very early in the mornings sometimes at 2am to go and search for firewood so that we deliver to the villagers wanting the firewood. We sell one scotch-cart full of firewood at 25 (US) dollars,” Mhike told IPS.

Amid incessant droughts actuated by climate change that have also led to the gradual disappearance of Zimbabwe’s forests, with the use of tsotso stoves requiring fewer wood sticks to produce the cooking heat, villagers here have said they are gradually adapting to the crisis.

Even to environmental experts like Batanai Mutasa, part of the panacea to surmount firewood deficits has turned out to be the now popular tsotso stoves in the face of Zimbabwe’s laws forbidding the cutting down of trees.

Mutasa is also the spokesman for the Zimbabwe Environmental Law Association (ZELA), a non-governmental organization comprising of legal minds fighting for this country’s environment.

As the trees disappear amid firewood poaching in Zimbabwe’s villages like Gonzoma in Manicaland Province, Mutasa has a piece of advice.

“My advice to people struggling to find firewood in remote areas is that they should work together to find other means that protect our trees from being damaged, things like using biogas or stoves that don’t require much firewood like tsotso stoves,” he (Mutasa) told IPS.

In worst case scenarios, said Mutasa, to preserve forests as they search for firewood, people should resort to just plucking off branches from the surviving trees to use these to make fire, leaving the trees alive.

Mutasa said: “Mainly, people should make it their habit to plant and replant trees. People can team up with authorities in their villages to fight off woodpoachers in their areas.”

Another Gonzoma villager, Mzilikazi Rusawo, in his early sixties, said faced with desperate times in their search for firewood as the few forests are jealously guarded by law enforcers, they now have to seek permission from authorities before they cut selected trees for firewood.

“The law does not allow us to just cut down trees for firewood anyhow. We actually seek permission from authorities before cutting trees for firewood, which we do with care—sparsely cutting down the trees in order to leave many other trees standing,” Rusawo told IPS.

For the Zimbabwean government, the options are, however, fast running out as rural dwellers battle with firewood shortages.

Some of the options can not be afforded by many residents in rural areas in a country where more than 90 percent are jobless, according to the Zimbabwe Congress of Trade Unions (ZCTU).

“Firewood shortages are a huge challenge for all people living in rural areas, but it is not only firewood that can be used for cooking. People can also use biogas,” Joyce Chapungu, spokesperson for the Environmental Management Agency (EMA), told IPS.

With the retail price of biogas in Zimbabwe going for approximately two dollars per kilogram, not many rural residents can afford buying the cooking gas.

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Artist's conception of Miss Sassy chilling at the day spa (Actually, our kitten Brinca chilling at the day spa). Photo: Peter Costantini

By Peter Costantini
TUCSON, Arizona, US, Nov 4 2024 (IPS)

A small incident in the mounting mayhem of the 2024 elections crystalized the state of the dark art of politics in these United States. In Springfield, Ohio, a small midwestern industrial city, a woman named Anna Kilgore noticed that her cat, Miss Sassy, had been missing for a few days. Kilgore notified the police that she feared her kitty might have been caught and eaten by the Haitian immigrants who lived next door.

A few days later, Miss Sassy showed up in Kilgore’s basement, uneaten. The woman, to her credit, apologized to her neighbors.

But before the prodigal feline’s return, false rumors began to circulate in Springfield and online that illegal Haitian immigrants were kidnapping and eating pets. The allegations were denied by the police, the Republican mayor, and the state of Ohio’s Republican governor.

Nevertheless, the tall tale was picked up and amplified by social media and right-wing news sources. Over 20 bomb threats were called in to public institutions. The governor stationed state police in schools, some of which were forced to close temporarily, and deployed bomb-sniffing dogs and surveillance cameras around the city. The large Haitian community was terrorized.

Beyond Springfield, a key strategy of the Trump – Vance campaign appears to be to repeat and refuse to retract a variety of big and small lies about immigrants that have already been discredited

The kicker came when ex-President and current Republican presidential candidate Donald J. Trump repeated the already debunked rumor during his nationally televised debate with Vice President and current Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris on September 10.

“In Springfield, they’re eating the dogs,” the ex-president said. “The people that came in, they’re eating the cats. They’re eating the pets of the people that live there. And this is what’s happening in this country.” [Botelho 9/20/2024] U.S. Senator from Ohio and current Republican vice-presidential candidate J.D. Vance also continued to recount the falsehood in public appearances. Both Trump and Vance have made racist and xenophobic tropes about Haitians and other immigrants signature themes of their campaign.

Springfield is a formerly deindustrialized factory town that has revived economically and has again attracted numerous manufacturing jobs. But during the period of stagnation, much of the previous working-class population apparently sought work elsewhere.

So when the city’s economy boomed again and manufacturing jobs returned, but workers were scarcer, word circulated on the grapevines of immigrants and other job seekers. Over the past four years, an estimated 12 to 15 thousand Haitians have moved to Clark County, of which Springfield is the seat, now making up roughly 10 percent of a county population of 136 thousand.

The City of Springfield itself has a population of a little under 60 thousand. But nobody sent the Haitians, as some of the rumors have suggested; they reportedly came on their own with encouragement from government and businesses. [City of Springfield Immigration FAQ] [US Census Bureau – Clark County and Springfield, OH]

According to the City web site, “Haitian immigrants are here legally” under temporary programs such as humanitarian parole and Temporary Protected Status. Regardless of their immigration status, the Haitian community has helped revitalize the local economy and opened 10 new businesses. [US Census Bureau, Springfield and Clark County] [City of Springfield Immigration FAQs] As with any sudden influx of people, the population increase has sometimes strained educational and medical services and housing. But this is a problem of economic growth, which would likely occur whether or not the newcomers were immigrants.

Despite criticism from across the political spectrum, neither Trump nor Vance has retracted their immigrants-eating-pets story. When challenged, their evidence includes “I read it on the Internet” and “My constituents wrote to me about it”. They are also propagating falsehoods that the Haitian immigrants are bringing diseases and crime.

Vance acknowledged backhandedly that he had known all along that the story was false. According to the Wall Street Journal, the city manager had told him that there was no evidence that the rumors were true. [Fowler 9/18/2024]

Yet the Senator persisted: “The American media totally ignored this stuff until Donald Trump and I started talking about cat memes,” he asserted. “If I have to create stories so that the American media actually pays attention to the suffering of the American people, then that’s what I’m going to do.” [Garrett 9/15/2024]

The vice-presidential candidate also lied about the legal immigration statuses that have allowed most of the Haitians in Springfield to stay in the U.S. temporarily: “Well, if Kamala Harris waves a wand illegally, and says these people are now here legally, I’m still going to call them an illegal alien.”

But Harris had nothing to do with deciding the immigrants’ legal status.  They would have had to be approved by the Departments of Homeland Security and possibly Justice. And the asylum, TPS and other forms of relief they were granted are legal immigration statuses that have been around since well before the Biden administration. [Kreemer 10/2/2024]

Beyond Springfield, a key strategy of the Trump – Vance campaign appears to be to repeat and refuse to retract a variety of big and small lies about immigrants that have already been discredited.

At one of his rallies, Trump claimed that In Aurora, Colorado, a Venezuelan gang had taken over an apartment building and swathes of the state. Local police said there were problems in a building where some Venezuelan immigrants live, but that the issues were serious housing code violations, such as lack of heat or running water, not gangs. [Hu 9/11/2024]

After Hurricane Helene, Trump and other Republicans alleged that the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) had diverted federal disaster relief money to undocumented immigrants. “They stole the FEMA money,” he said, “just like they stole it from a bank, so they could give it to their illegal immigrants that they want to have vote for them this season”.

FEMA said that Trump’s claims were untrue, and that undocumented immigrants are not eligible for cash assistance. Trump managed to piggyback another lie onto his first: undocumented immigrants cannot vote and there is no evidence that the Biden administration has tried to bribe them. [Strickler et all 10/4/2024]

Trump has also spearheaded a national Republican campaign that falsely claims, as in the FEMA story, that undocumented immigrants are voting illegally in large numbers. The idea has been thoroughly discredited. Arizona Secretary of State Adrian Fontes told me that non-citizen voting is “at best vanishingly rare” and “is not an issue that has or will impact any election. That is a conspiracy theory and a mythology that is not true.” [AZ Sec of State press conference 10/31/2024]

It has long been illegal for non-citizens to vote, and everyone who registers to vote has to swear on penalty of perjury that they are a U.S. citizen 18 years old or older. But the Republican fearmongering is getting steadily louder. Republican legislatures are passing bills prohibiting what’s already prohibited, and some GOP politicians are calling all immigrants, even naturalized citizens who can legally vote, “illegals”.

Mike Johnson, the Republican speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives, has offered no evidence that non-citizen voting is a problem. But he declared at a press conference, “We all know, intuitively, that a lot of illegals are voting in federal elections.” [Benen 7/19/2024]

In the mendacity derby, Trump, Vance and Johnson are shoo-ins for win, place and show.

I was curious how Miss Sassy felt about all the brouhaha, but her publicist was not taking my calls. I suspected the famous feline might have tired of her celebrity and gone dark. Still, since Vance admitted that he made up fictional stories to get the attention of the media, I decided to do the same for my interview with Miss Sassy. But unlike Vance, I will not lie about it – I’ll tell you what’s true and what I’m making up.

So here is an intuitive transcript of my imaginary interview with Miss Sassy. My comments are in parentheses.

Miss Sassy

I’m glad you asked that. I’m called Miss Sassy because I’m very outspoken and sometimes even impudent.

I hope you won’t think I’m species-ist, but honestly, you can’t get good human help anymore. You’ve probably heard the saying: “Dogs have masters, cats have staff.” Well, my staff in our house in Springfield, Ohio, is well-meaning, but … let’s just say she’s not one of the sharpest claws on the paws. (If you live with cats, you know they think like this.)

Despite what those crazy-ass MAGAheads are saying, when I wandered over to check out the Haitians next door, they were really nice to me. Dahling, it was like a day spa with a three-star restaurant. They gave my paws a pedicure, massaged my back and haunches, scratched my chin, and broke out the catnip. Then they poured me out the juice from the cans of tuna fish they opened for tuna salad.

Another day they made a Haitian dish they called lambi, some kind of seafood in a butter sauce, and they let me try it. It was to die for. (Completely invented. But I have lived in Haiti and I believe that Haitians generally love their pets. And I have had delectable lambi on an idyllic beach in Saint-Louis-du-Sud.)

So no, they didn’t try to eat me. Au contraire: they fed me some pretty tasty stuff. When I found out what my human accused them of, I got so mad that I peed on her favorite chair. (Can’t confirm this, but it sounds intuitive.)

As you may have heard, my human retracted her story when I showed up healthy and rested. She explained that that she found me in the basement of our house after a couple of days, acknowledged that the Haitian neighbors did not eat me, and apologized to them. So I forgave her. (Most of this has been widely reported, although forgiveness is hard to verify.)

What I don’t understand about some humans is how they can keep on repeating the same lie about the neighbors eating me when they know it’s not true. Yes, I’m talking about that politician who carries an orange-haired rodent around on his head – oh, sorry, I mean the combover – and that baby-faced guy who looks and sounds like his intern. Agent Orange, as the filmmaker Spike Lee calls him, repeated the lies about me and Springfield on TV during a national debate. What’s even harder to fathom is why a lot of people still believe them. Arrogant humans like to say they’re the most intelligent species. Well, these days, the evidence is scarce. (The rodent part is false. But it’s just insult comedy, and as Puerto Ricans know, the ex-president is a big fan.)

But hold on, I do have a theory about that. Nowadays everyone’s talking about Artificial Intelligence. And being a very intelligent cat, I’ve gotten curious about AI too. My human thinks I’m just walking on the keyboard of her computer and tries to shoo me off, and sometimes I type things like “xdr54tttttthjn” just to keep her in the dark. But actually I’m doing research and downloading articles nonstop. (Take everything about AI with a grain of salt.)

Now here’s the theory that I’m working on: I think Trump and Vance and the Republicans have come up with a new mutant form of Artificial Intelligence that I call Artificial Stupidity. AI tries to teach machines to talk like humans. AS teaches humans to talk like machines. (Of course this is made up, but doesn’t it explain a lot?)

Maybe you’ve noticed that the whole MAGA crowd, and their wholly owned subsidiary, the Republican Party, are constantly parroting the same keywords and talking points and memes. They all sound like they’ve been programmed to be mindless automatons.

Here’s my hypothesis: AI uses large language models to teach neural networks how to learn. AS uses yuge wordsalad models – starting with all the speeches and tweets of Beloved Leader – to inject anti-social venom that bypasses the frontal lobe, hijacks the amygdala, and teaches the MAGA faithful whom to hate and how. It sends a symphony of racist and sexist dog whistles into their vulnerable brains.

As it takes over their minds, AS seems to incubate a form of emotional vulnerability called Big Daddy Syndrome. It’s a condition that most dictators, demagogues and cult leaders know how to manipulate. Whatever the problem, Big Daddy’s answer is “Don’t worry your dependent little head about this. I’m the only one who can take care of it for you. I have a concept of a policy. Just leave it to me.”

Please excuse the New Age pop psychology, but would you believe I used to talk with Sigmund Freud’s ghost about problems like this? He told me, “This is a classic case of psychological displacement in two dimensions. The subjects are substituting Big Daddy for a missing or abusive father figure. And they’re attacking immigrants who have done nothing to harm them to displace the bosses or billionaires or politicians who have actually been hurting them.”

To assert Big Daddy’s dominance over his followers, Trump cultivates a brash rhetorical style. The late-night TV satirist Stephen Colbert compared it to a leaf blower. I think of Big Daddy spraying disinformation and bigotry all around him as a sort of senile tom cat obsessively marking his territory. Then Vance follows up, trying to spin everything and make excuses, like the poor clown in the circus parade sweeping up after the elephants.

But really, how do you know when Trump is lying? Here’s the tell just watch his lips. If they move, he’s probably lying. (Badabing badaboom)

I think it might have been Trump’s advisor Steve Bannon who said, “Before Truth can put on her shoes, my lies have gone halfway around the world. But, truth be told, the proceeds from my lies are in an attaché case full of unmarked bills in a bank in the Cayman Islands, and I’m on my second mojito.” (This is a total fabrication. Although in fact Bannon was convicted and serving time for embezzling a million bucks, but Trump pardoned him and got him out of jail.)

OK, so it’s clear that Trump is an inveterate liar. But is it really fair to call him a fascist? Well, at least two retired generals and a former Defense Secretary who had worked for Trump, and some of the most respected academic experts on fascism have all said publicly that they consider him a fascist. Many of his ex-cabinet members and advisors have chimed in that he is a dangerous authoritarian. The ex-President replied that he was “the opposite of a Nazi”, whatever that is, and called Harris “fascist” in return. His rhetorical strategy has been reduced to the old playground taunt, “I’m rubber, you’re glue. Whatever you say bounces off me and sticks to you.” (See a recent front page of the New York Times.) [Baker 11/2/2024] [Zerofsky 10/23/2024]

As you can see, I don’t understand why MAGA people can’t see through Trump. But I also don’t think most of them are bad or stupid. After all, my human may wear a Trump T-shirt, but I know she’s got a good heart. The problem is, a lot of them are what are being called “low-information” voters, meaning they don’t pay much attention to any news at all, and only take in random snatches of what’s actually going on. Then they vote without having much idea of whom or what they are voting for. (You did not hear this first here.)

Look, there’s no shame in being ignorant – we’re all ignorant about many things. And it surely takes a strong stomach to follow politics. But then Big Daddy comes along selling his snake oil about who’s responsible for all your problems, and the answer is always: it’s the f___ing immigrants. Not coincidentally, immigrants are mostly Brown and Black people like our neighbors.

Then, when Trump serves you a steaming bowl of bile, you slurp it all up and wash it down with an ivermectin chaser, and then maybe act it out in a fantasy state of confusion or fear or hate. But dawg, the truth is that you’re hurting real flesh-and-blood people like the Haitians, and shaming the rest of us, too. (About four out of five immigrants to the U.S. come from Latin America, Asia or Africa.) [Pew Research Center 9/28/2015]

P.T. Barnum, of Barnum and Bailey Circus fame, supposedly said: “There’s a sucker born every minute.” In J.D. Vance, Trump has brought in young grifter talent who’s a little smoother at scamming people. That’s why I call him J.D. Barnum, and he seems to have revved the production line up to a sucker every second. (There is no evidence that Barnum said this, but it’s usually attributed to him.)

Just imagine what your children and grandchildren will think of you if they learn you were one of the poor schlemiels who fell for Trump’s and Vance’s toxic hogwash. Do yourself and all of us a big favor: pull your head out of your hindquarters and just say no to the lies of Don the Con and J.D. Barnum.

~ ~ ~

At this point, Miss Sassy’s cell phone rang, and she’s like “Sorry, I have to take this.” It sounded like it might have been Oprah. Then without taking leave, she sashayed back down the stairs into the basement.

References

Peter Baker. “Amid Talk of Fascism, Trump’s Threats and Language Evoke a Grim Past”. New York Times, November 2, 2024.

Peter Baker. “Trump’s Wild Claims, Conspiracies and Falsehoods Redefine Presidential Bounds”. New York Times, November 3, 2024.

Avery Kreemer. “Federal policy that paved way for Springfield’s Haitian boom debated”. Dayton, OH: Dayton Daily News, October 2, 2024.

City of Springfield Ohio. “Immigration FAQs”. City of Springfield Ohio, accessed November 1, 2024.

Pew Research Center. “Modern Immigration Wave Brings 59 Million to U.S., Driving Population Growth and Change Through 2065”. Pew Research Center, September 28, 2015.

United States Census Bureau. “Springfield city, Ohio”. USCB, accessed November 1, 2024.

Elisabeth Zerofsky. “Is It Fascism? A Leading Historian Changes His Mind.” New York Times, October 23, 2024.

A wide view of the General Assembly Hall during the opening of the Summit of the Future. Credit: UN Photo

By Dawn Clancy
UNITED NATIONS, Sep 30 2024 (IPS)

While most world leaders who attended the United Nations inaugural Summit of the Future—a two-day high-level event at UN headquarters in New York meant to address the most pressing global challenges of the 21st century—agree that the world’s aging multilateral system needs modernizing, not all agree on how to get there.

“We will not succeed in overcoming our existential challenges if we are not prepared to change the global governance structures that are rooted in the outcome of World War II and have become unsuited to today’s world,” said Mia Mottley, the prime minister of Barbados, at the summit on September 22. “What the world needs now is a reset.”

For the countries that make up the global South—while not a monolith—the path to reform begins with overhauling the current international financial architecture that has trapped developing countries in an untenable cycle of debt. Still, there is doubt that the blueprint for reform presented in the summit’s non-binding outcome document, the Pact for the Future, goes far enough to rally the political will needed for change.

Despite months of fraught negotiations and a last-minute amendment tabled by Russia that was rejected, the pact was adopted by consensus on the first day of the summit.

“The Pact for the Future designed an excellent building, but it didn’t leave that many instructions for the construction of the building,” said Tim Hirschel-Burns, policy liaison for the Boston University Global Development Policy Center.

With its 56 action items, the pact, a 42-page document, addresses five areas of global concern: sustainable development and financing, international peace and security, digital cooperation, youth and future generations, and global governance. It also includes two separate annexes, a Global Digital Compact and a Declaration on Future Generations.

But while Hirschel-Burns describes the language in the pact as “weak” and “fairly vague,” he told IPS there is still room for some optimism considering that “the pact is signed from leaders [and] heads of states representing the peoples of the world,” and so “you have a really high mandate” for action, he added. Notably, no leaders from the P5 countries—the United States, United Kingdom, France, China and Russia—spoke at the summit.

One promising action item in the pact calls on signees to close the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) financing gap—estimated at 4.2 trillion annually—in developing countries. Established in 2015, the SDGs act as a blueprint to eliminate a wide range of global challenges, including poverty, hunger and inequality, by 2030.

However, progress on the SDGs has fluctuated for countries drowning in debt and who are without sustainable options for affordable financing. The most recent SDG report estimates that “only 17 percent of the SDG targets are on track,” in some cases, progress has stalled or even regressed.

Still, Hirschel-Burns told IPS, “Even if the Pact for the Future doesn’t have a clear roadmap for addressing unsustainable debt, the bigger outcomes pledged in the pact [including SDG funding] won’t happen unless there is meaningful action on debt relief.”

When accessing financing, global South countries are traditionally met with much higher interest rates than their neighbors in the West. According to the latest UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) report, “developing regions—in Asia, Latin America, the Caribbean and Africa—borrow at rates that are 2 to 4 times higher than those of the United States and 6 to 12 times higher than those of Germany.”

This dynamic has led to developing nations racking up USD 365 billion in external debt—money owed to foreign investors, governments and multilateral institutions in 2022.” The report found that 3.3 billion people “live in countries that spend more on interest payments than education or health.” That is nearly 40 percent of the total global population of 8 million.

A separate 2023 report published by Debt Justice, an organization based in London that aims to end unjust debt practices, found that “lower-income country debt payments in 2023 hit their highest level since 1998.” And external debt payments “for 91 countries will average at least 16.3 percent of government revenue in 2023, rising to 16.7 percent in 2024, an increase of over 150 percent since 2011.”

In addition to high interest rates and lack of political will, however, there are additional structural causes for developing countries’ high debt levels, said Iolanda Fresnillo, policy and advocacy manager for the European Network on Debt and Development (EURODAD), such as unfair trade relations, technology dependence on China and the global North, along with the impact of exogenous shocks such as major climate events, pandemics and war.

When countries already drowning in debt do not have the tools to deal with the consequences of a hurricane, an earthquake or a change in oil or other commodity prices, they have to borrow more, Fresnillo told IPS. So, to repay their growing debt, countries cut health and education expenditures and investments in climate adaptation and mitigation, leaving them unprepared for the next major climate event. “We call it the debt and climate vicious cycle,” she said.

Notably, it is the countries of the global North that emit an excess of the emissions that drive climate change, but it is the underdeveloped nations of the global South that suffer consequences that compound the debt cycle.

“The international community [must take] much more ambitious action to address this climate crisis,” said Ralph Gonsalves, prime minister of Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, at the Summit of the Future on Sept. 22. “Otherwise, all of us here—we are going to go to hell in a handbasket. You know it, and I know it.”

Meanwhile, Fresnillo told IPS that before any multilateral system or blueprint for the future can tackle the issue of debt reform, a “common framework” must be established. “So when we say that the debt architecture needs a reform, what we mean is that we need a debt architecture,” as there are no rules when developing countries face a crisis and need to restructure their debt.

“It’s crazy,” Fresnillo said. “When a company goes bankrupt, there are rules that the company has to follow in order to address that bankruptcy,” but that doesn’t exist for countries. “It’s terribly unfair because then who bears the burden is the people in the country.”

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Sarah Al-Hassan lost her baby due to the lack of care in the camps. Credit: Sonia Al Ali/IPS

By Sonia Al Ali
IDLIB, Syria, Aug 22 2024 (IPS)

Pregnant women in northern Syria’s camps for internally displaced people fear about their health and the health of their unborn children because of a lack of basic medical care and a healthy diet. These conditions exacerbate the illnesses and challenges faced by women, particularly amid the region’s widespread poverty, food insecurity, and the remoteness of hospitals and health centers from the camps.

Pregnant women in the camps are susceptible to anemia, malnutrition, and giving birth to stunted children if they survive. The delay in obtaining care poses a significant health risk to both pregnant women and their infants.

Fatima Al-Aboud, a 26-year-old displaced woman living in the Ma’arat Misrin camp north of Idlib, is six months pregnant and suffering from severe anemia, which threatens both her health and that of her fetus.

“The doctor told me that I need to eat a balanced diet in sufficient quantities throughout my pregnancy to maintain my health and that of my fetus, but poverty and high prices have made me unable to buy fruits and vegetables rich in vitamins and proteins. I am also unable to afford the necessary medications for pregnant women.”

Al-Aboud does not hide her fear of giving birth to a child in poor health due to malnutrition or of her labor starting without a car available to transport her to the hospital, especially since the road between the camp and health centers is poor and rugged and it is more than five kilometers away.

Pregnant women face health risks in the camps. Credit: Sonia Al Ali/IPS

“I have many fears, as there are no comfortable places to sit or sleep inside the tent, and I cannot get physical rest during pregnancy. As a pregnant woman, I do not have a private space or clean toilets,” Al-Aboud told IPS.

The health risks faced by pregnant women increase due to the distance of health centers and hospitals from the camps, exposing them to the risk of miscarriage and even death during childbirth, along with the possibility of premature births.

The Syria Response Coordinators team, which specializes in gathering information and statistics in the areas of northwestern Syria, reports that more than 87 percent of the camps suffer from a lack of medical points and mobile clinics, and there are difficulties in transporting patients to nearby hospitals, knowing that the financial condition of most of the displaced is very poor and they are unable to secure the necessary treatment for any medical condition without exception.

Sara Al-Hassan, a 31-year-old displaced woman in a makeshift camp north of Syria near the Turkish border and a mother of three, lost her baby during childbirth.

“I started labor after midnight, and due to the distance of the hospitals from the camp and the lack of transportation, I relied on a nurse who lived nearby.”

She says that her delivery was difficult, and her baby was in critical condition and urgently needed an incubator. While being transported to a hospital, the baby passed away.

Al-Hassan confirms that she no longer wants to have children and relies on contraception to avoid repeating the experience of pregnancy and childbirth within the camps. She added that her life in the tent is harsh, as she lacks clean drinking water, bathing water, and food. She wouldn’t be able to provide for the needs of newborn babies as there is a significant shortage of personal hygiene items.

“Stress, anxiety, and overthinking dominate my life, and I feel helpless towards my three children who are living in difficult conditions, but despite that, I try my best to take care of their cleanliness and provide for their needs,” Al-Hassan says.

Dr. Ola Al-Qudour, a specialist in obstetrics and gynecology from Idlib city in northwestern Syria, talks about the suffering of pregnant women in northern Syria’s camps.

“Thousands of Syrian pregnant women live in camps in harsh conditions, as most of them cannot provide the necessities of food and medicine. Malnutrition leads to health problems that affect both the pregnant woman and the fetus and exposes the mother to a decrease in milk after childbirth, making her unable to breastfeed her child.”

Al-Qudour points out that the lack of hospitals within the camps increases the suffering of pregnant women, forcing most cases to move outside, confirming that displaced women live in tents made of cloth, and those who give birth in the hospital often return to the tent after only a few hours due to hospital congestion, knowing that the first 24 hours after childbirth are the most critical in terms of complications, so it is important to keep the mother in the hospital for as long as possible.

She confirms that low levels of hygiene make pregnant women more susceptible to influenza due to a decrease in their immunity, and that pregnant women who don’t get enough sleep can also expose them to early labor as well as affect the growth of the child after birth. She also indicates that non-sterile home births increase the risk of infection in newborns and mothers.

The doctor emphasizes the need to provide healthcare services for pregnant women and newborns in the camps, including regular medical check-ups and early diagnosis of any health problems, and providing the necessary care and nutrition for mothers during pregnancy, childbirth, and afterwards.

With the continuation of the war and displacement, more than two million people still reside in camps in northwestern Syria, including 604,000 women.

The UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) says as many as “660 camps (44 percent of over 1,500 camps) across Idleb and northern Aleppo do not have water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH) support, affecting over 907,000 people. Half of them are children.”

IPS UN Bureau Report

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An #EndBadGovernanceInNigeria protestor in Abuja expresses his view on President Bola Tinabu. Credit: Promise Eze/IPS

By Promise Eze
ABUJA, Aug 6 2024 (IPS)

Thousands of Nigerians have taken to the streets to protest against bad governance, corruption, soaring inflation, and the rising cost of living, in what has been termed “10 Days of Rage” and believed to mirror Kenyan protests organized by the youth.

Nigeria, Africa’s most populous country and a major exporter of crude oil, citizens claim that the benefits of the country’s resources do not trickle down to the masses but to a group of corrupt politicians.

The demonstrations, slated for the first ten days of August, gained momentum on social media, with the hashtag #EndBadGovernanceInNigeria accompanied by the slogan “10 Days of Rage.”

This follows the protests in Kenya, where young people engaged in six weeks of demonstrations over an unpopular bill that sought to raise taxes. Under pressure, President William Ruto retracted the bill and announced a cabinet shake-up.

There is no organized leadership for the Nigerian protests, but some of the demands include a total overhaul of the Nigerian system, including the reversal of economic policies implemented by President Bola Tinubu from his first day in office. A group is also clamoring for the unconditional release of Nnamdi Kanu, a leader of a proscribed secessionist group who was arrested in Kenya, extradited to Nigeria, and detained since June 2021. In the northern state of Kano there were demands the president step down.

Tinubu eliminated the contentious fuel subsidy and requested the central bank to stabilize the naira and control inflation, which experts say may improve the economy but has ultimately impoverished millions of Nigerians.

To appease Nigerians before protests began, the government hastily approved an increase in the minimum monthly wage from 30,000 naira (approximately USD 18.55) to 70,000 naira (USD 43.29) following pressure from labour unions. Observers note that this raise is negligible in the face of soaring inflation, which has exceeded 34%—its highest level in nearly 30 years—resulting in one of the nation’s most severe cost-of-living crises. Politicians promised to slash their salaries by 50% to help solve Nigeria’s hunger crisis.

Tinubu also held several closed-door meetings with leaders from across the country to appeal to Nigerians and quell the protests. Job advertisements in government institutions also made headlines.

Agabi Yusuf, a civil rights activist in Sokoto, Northwest Nigeria, argues that all of the “fire brigade”approaches to appeal to Nigerians to stop the demonstrations will not work because “Nigerians are hungry, and this time they have been pushed to the wall.”

“You don’t expect them to keep their mouths shut,” he told IPS.

Brutal Force

Yusuf is worried about the government’s brutal response to the protests. Human rights group Amnesty International reported that on the first day of the protests, at least 13 people were killed in clashes between protesters and police forces in various cities. Local media provided differing death tolls, with one newspaper claiming that up to 17 people were killed.

A 24-hour curfew was imposed in many parts of the country, including the northern state of Kano, which is the second-largest state and one of the country’s major voting blocs, following the looting of government and public properties there.

People defied the curfew, waving the Russian flag and chanting in the local Hausa language, calling on the president to step down and for the military to take over power. The police responded by killing no fewer than 10 people.

The Sokoto-based Yusuf, who was detained by Nigeria’s secret police on July 25 for attempting to organize youth to protest peacefully, said the threats and brutality from the government can only help but make things spiral out of control.

Yusuf told IPS that the security agency claimed he was part of those allegedly plotting to topple the government of Tinubu through the protests.

“The officers were just yelling at me. They locked me up in a very smelly room for about eight hours. In fact, they threatened that if anything went wrong during the protest, I would be held responsible,” Yusuf, a leader with the Northern Advocate for Good Governance, said.

Yusuf is not the only one who has been threatened and detained. According to Amnesty International, nearly 700 protesters, including journalists, have been arrested across the country while nine officers have been injured during the protests. The authorities are wary that the protests may mirror the deadly EndSARS demonstrations against police brutality in 2020, which resulted in deaths and injuries after security forces opened fire on unarmed protesters.

Oludare Ogunlana, Professor of National Security at Collin College in Texas, shares Yusuf’s views. He told IPS that suppressing people from protesting will result in very deadly repercussions.

“As we are appealing to the protesters to be orderly, we expect the security agencies to be cautious. If you use deadly weapons on people, then it will escalate and become uncontrollable. The people are simply telling the authorities to address their concerns, but the government has been indifferent.”

Nuredeen Hassan, a political analyst in Nigeria, argued that though the protests may have been inspired by what happened in Kenya, there were already signs that Nigerians may soon storm the streets. He noted that “people are really angry about the state of the country.”

“While Tinubu has only been president for about a year, his party has held onto power for nine years and only a few of the promises made over the years have been fulfilled. The country is getting worse and this has infuriated Nigerians,” he told IPS.

In the administrative capital Abuja, where residents are angered about the rising cases of kidnapping for ransom, police chased protesters and threw canisters of tear gas at them, injuring many. Security agencies shot live rounds at journalists and protesters, and indiscriminately arrested dozens.

Yakubu Muhammed, a reporter with Premium Times, a daily paper in the country, told IPS that while he was trying to film police officers arresting people, he was hit with the butt of a gun and dragged into a van. “Despite explaining that I am a pressman, they arrested me and seized my phone. In the van, I met four people. I was released some moments later,” he said.

Critics accused the security agencies of failing to protect protesters but rather choosing to give cover to allegedly government-paid thugs who, all over the country, are raising placards saying, ‘Say No To Protest’.

In Nigeria’s economic capital Lagos, thugs threatened and chased protesters while the police watched.

The Race For 2027

President Tinubu addressed the country on the fourth day of the protests. He pleaded for an end to the demonstrations but insisted that he would not reverse any of his economic policies.

His speech did not go well with the opposition who slammed him for not addressing the demands of the protesters. A former Vice President of Nigeria, Atiku Abubakar, said that Tinubu’s “speech neglects the pressing economic hardships that have besieged Nigerian families since the very beginning of his tenure.”

Ibrahim Baba Shatambaya, a lecturer in the Department of Political Science, Usmanu Danfodiyo University, Sokoto, Nigeria,  is concerned that the President made no reference or condemned the killing of protesters in the country by security forces, despite his promise to hold onto the tenets of democracy and human rights.

“The protest is just one event which is an outcome of the poor performance of the government. If the government does not do the needful in actually reversing the trends of economic hardships in this country, the tendency is that the ruling political party may not likely have a field day come the subsequent round of elections in 2027,” Shatambaya said.

Ethnic Tensions

Peter Obi, a former governor of Anambra State in southeast Nigeria, was criticized by Tinubu’s media aide, Bayo Onanuga, for allegedly leading his supporters to organize the protests to remove the president from power. He referred to Obi’s supporters as members of the proscribed pro-secessionist group  Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB) led by the detained Kanu. IPOB is agitating for an independent Biafra Republic which would be made up of Nigeria’s southeastern states-the home base of the Igbo tribe.  Onanuga claimed Obi, a presidential candidate in the last elections, is unhappy that he lost to Tinubu in a very tight race.

Obi has denied this claim and has taken legal action against Onanuga for defamation. Observers like the political analyst Hassan say this is just a reflection of the level of ‘Igbophobia’ meted out against the Igbos by some actors in the government and, if care is not taken, could lead to an ethnic crisis.

Organized Igbo-led groups in Nigeria’s southeast denounced and pulled out of the protests before they began, fearing there would be a bloody backlash against them if the protest spirals out of control. They fear that, just like in 1966, when thousands of Igbos were blamed and massacred for allegedly leading a revolutionary coup that saw the deaths of many influential leaders and eventually led to a nearly three-year civil war, they could be targeted for actively calling for Tinubu’s resignation.

Meanwhile, in the Yoruba ethnic-dominated Southwest, Tinubu’s home base, there are growing calls for Igbos to leave the region, which has been condemned by the national government.

Elsewhere in the north, where the protests have become extremely violent with many cities shut down, and workplaces, hospitals, and schools closed, rumors are spreading that the northerners, the majority of whom are from the Hausa and Fulani ethnic groups, are actively protesting against the government because they want Tinubu, a Yoruba man, to step down for one of their kinsmen.

“Some Yorubas are defending Tinubu like they are not seeing this hardship only because he is their kinsman. The Hausas and Fulanis that called protests un-Islamic are now at the forefront of violent protests. They want to make Tinubu a one-term president like the former President Goodluck Jonathan so that another northerner can take over power,” alleged Michael John, who lives in Abuja.

Meanwhile, Ogunlana told IPS that while ethnic propaganda may have been instigated by politicians for their self-interest, Nigerians should be concerned about the factors that have made the country difficult to live in.

“Whether you are from the north or the south, suffering and hardship unites all of us. I don’t think these protests should be viewed through ethnic lenses but rather should be about how the government should listen to the demands of the aggrieved citizens,” he said.

Owolabi Toyibat in Lagos, who is against the violent outcomes of the protests and believes the demonstrations may last for more than 10 days, fears that the protests with their different leaderships may spark riots, especially when the government continues to ignore the demands of the protesters.

“Looting of public and private properties will soon become the norm. While I believe that protesting is our right, there can never be a peaceful protest in Nigeria, and only very few protests have brought tangible changes in this country. Look at the protests in Kenya and how they ended in so much violence and loss of lives. Such will be the case in Nigeria,” she told IPS.

Abdullateef Abdullahi in Sokoto thinks differently.

“I believe protest is very essential until our demands are met, as it serves as the only primary means to draw our leaders’ attention to the national issues we face and to pressurize them for tangible reform of our nation,” he said, adding that “only the urgency of this protest can bring our leaders back to their senses and listen to our plight. We are being treated like slaves while they live in luxury. Does this not call for protests?”

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Farmers in Kashmir sow rice crops. Farmers voted against the ruling BJP because of its unpopular policies and lack of support, as uncertain weather conditions impact their livelihoods. Credit: Umer Asif/IPS

By Umar Manzoor Shah
SRINAGAR, Jul 15 2024 (IPS)

On June 4, Ram Das, a 65-year-old farmer from India’s northern state of Haryana, was anxiously waiting for the results of the country’s general elections. It was early morning when he left his home and, along with his fellow villagers, congregated near a tea stall that had a transistor set playing the election results.

By 11 in the morning, Das had already sipped three cups of tea and smoked a few cigarettes. His anxiety was plummeting as the results hinted at a decreasing number of seats for India’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). He, along with the entire hamlet, had voted against the Narendra Modi government. “The farmers are not happy at all. We wanted to teach this government a lesson, and that is what we did,” Das told Inter Press Service. 

Despite securing a third term in government, the BJP’s overall election performance was described as a “shock” to Prime Minister Narendra Modi by several media sources. The party fell short of its goal of winning 400 out of 543 seats, managing to secure only 240 seats compared to 303 in the last elections that were held in the year 2019. Opposition parties saw significant success in states with large farming populations, such as Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Maharashtra, Punjab, and West Bengal. Consequently, the BJP had to rely on the 28 cumulative seats from its allies to form the government.

An infographic of the number of seats won by India’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the 2019 and 2024 elections for Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, and Punjab have the largest farming populations. The blue bars represent the 2019 elections, and the red bars represent the 2024 elections. The numbers on top of the bars indicate the number of seats won by the BJP out of the total seats available in each state. Credit: Umar Manzoor Shah/IPS

What went wrong and where?

When Narendra Modi first took office in 2014, he promised to reform the agriculture sector and double farmers’ incomes. However, government data from 2022 shows that farmers still live in squalid conditions, earning just Rs 28 ($0.34) per day.

Government data reveals that between 2018 and 2022, a staggering 53,478 farmers took their own lives, overwhelmed by mounting debt, inadequate compensation for their produce, and unpredictable weather conditions. This means 36 farmers were killing themselves every day during this period. “The numbers could be much higher than what is being projected in the government data. This could be the tip of an ice-berg. Many farmer suicides go unreported and never find place in government files,” says Abinav Sinha, a civil society activist based in Indian state of Uttar Pradesh.

In 2020, Modi’s government enacted three controversial agricultural laws without consulting farmers’ groups. This move sparked a massive year-long protest, as farmers feared the laws would lead to increased corporatization of agriculture and the elimination of state-backed protections, such as the minimum support price and the procurement of farm produce by state agencies.

The government ultimately repealed the controversial agricultural laws, but not before enforcing a severe crackdown on the protests. Authorities arrested farmers, barricaded highways to prevent them from reaching New Delhi, and deployed shotguns, pellets, and drones to disperse tear gas on unarmed protesters. As per the various farmers’ associations, over 570 farmers were killed during the protest.

In February of this year, farmers once again took to the streets, this time demanding legal guarantees for a minimum support price (MSP) for crops, among other issues. However, negotiations with government officials failed to yield any conclusive results.

This was the reason that the farmers associations across the country galvanized their efforts into political action and unanimously resolved to vote against the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).

June 4: The D-Day

Farmers like Das from Haryana were one amongst the thousands of other farmers who didn’t allow the BJP candidates to even enter their villages for the campaigning. “They were ruthless for us when we sought the rollback of the draconian farm laws. How on earth should we vote for them? We will not even allow them to campaign here,” Das said.

On June 4, this year, election results were announced, and the country was shocked to find the states with a considerable amount of agrarian population voting against the BJP.

In Rajasthan, where the BJP had secured a victory in the state government last December, it won 14 out of 25 seats in the recent elections, a significant drop from winning all 25 seats in 2019.

In Uttar Pradesh, a state where 65 percent of the population relies on agriculture, the BJP managed to win just 33 out of 80 seats, a sharp decline from the 62 seats it secured in 2019 and 71 in 2014.

In Haryana, known as India’s breadbasket, the BJP’s count dropped to five seats out of the 10 available, compared to winning all 10 seats in 2019. The opposition Congress claimed the remaining five seats.

In Punjab, a leading producer of rice and wheat, the BJP failed to win any seats, drawing a blank in the state.

Government Cannot Ignore Climate Change Now

Pranav Shankar, a climate change activist based in New Delhi, told IPS that the general elections in India this year have shown a considerable trend that cannot be ignored, downplayed or undermined. “The farmers have spoken out.  This is the reality. To date, the government has ignored the importance of the farming community. From now on, the government has to remain assiduous towards the farmers’ needs and take measures to tackle climate change that is wreaking havoc in the country and putting the farmers in distress,” Shankar said.

He added that more than 33 electoral officers were killed due to heat stroke during the national elections in India this year. “No one talked about them. Even the government itself seems to have forgotten about those poor souls. This is all very unprecedented,” Shankar said.

Note: This feature is published with the support of Open Society Foundations.

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Tidal waves on Namkhana Island have flooded a house in West Bengal, India. Tidal waves on Namkhana Island have flooded a house in West Bengal, India. Natural disasters. Storms, heavy rainfall, and floods wreck havoc here. Credit: Supratim Bhattacharjee / Climate Visuals

By Aishwarya Bajpai
NEW DELHI, Jul 9 2024 (IPS)

Cyclones and floods have become increasingly frequent across different parts of India, posing a significant threat to the country’s population.

According to global data, India ranks as the second-highest-risk nation, with 390 million people potentially to be affected by flooding due to climate change and among them are 4.9 million fishworkers.

Venkatesh Salagrama, a Kakinada-based expert on small-scale fisheries, and also an independent consultant to the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization has been quoted as saying: “For every boat in the sea, there are at least 5-20 people depending on it.”

From 2015 to 2023, Indians have faced the devastating impacts of floods and heavy rainfall (see graph). Among those most affected are the ‘ocean people’ or fishworkers, whose lives are further endangered by rising temperatures and unpredictable weather patterns.

People in India affected by floods. Credit: Aishwarya Bajpai/IPS

They already struggle with government initiatives aimed at intensifying the use of the ocean for the blue economy and the corporatization of coastal lands for port development, known as the nationwide ‘Sagarmala Project’ further denying them rights to coastal lands. Thereby, making the rights of fishworkers precarious, with no protective government laws in place. Climate change exacerbates their vulnerability, turning their worst fears into reality.

For instance, recently in December 2023, Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh (southern coastal states in India) and faced Cyclone Michaung, which led to extensive flooding. The cyclone brought extreme rainfall, with parts of the Tamil Nadu coast experiencing more rainfall in a single day than the average annual rainfall, a consequence of climate change.

In places like Kayalpattinam and Thoothukudi, where the average annual rainfall is around 900-950 mm, more than 1000 mm fell in a single day. However, the cyclone was not the immediate cause of the flooding.

“The flooding was largely a result of human mismanagement. Excessive urbanization and development in natural floodplains, combined with inadequate preparation, exacerbated the situation. The state government failed to release water from reservoirs and lakes before the cyclone, leading to overflowing when the heavy rains arrived,” R. Sridhar, Coastal Researcher and Research Scholar at Indian Institute of Technology, Delhi told IPS.

As a result, houses and roads were submerged, cutting off access to various villages and delaying rescue and relief efforts. The state’s response was hampered by damaged infrastructure, and the relief efforts from both the state and NGOs were delayed due to inaccessible roads and train routes.

Before the cyclone, fishworkers were already affected as they were not allowed to venture into the sea due to cyclone warnings, resulting in an initial loss of income. Once the cyclone hit, flooding damaged boats parked both in harbors and along the shoreline, affecting small and mechanized boats alike. Nets and other essential fishing gear were also damaged, representing a significant financial loss as nets are crucial and expensive. The fisher community experienced extensive damage, highlighting the severe impact on their livelihood and resources.

A fishworker only identified Simhadri, a survivor of the cyclone was quoted in The New India Express as saying: “Every fisherman in Gollapudi suffered an average loss of Rs 1 lakh (about USD 1,200) as the fishing nets, motors, and boats got damaged while some were drowned. The collector should pay a visit and provide financial assistance.”

The homes of fishworkers in Andhra Pradesh, provide insight into their living conditions and the challenges they face in maintaining their households. Credit: Aishwarya Bajpai/IPS

There was a significant failure in predicting the extent of rainfall. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) did not provide adequate warnings, resulting in insufficient preparations with Union blaming the state government and vice a versa. The state government requested over 5060 crore from the Union government for flood relief but received only a fraction, which was 450 crores. The capacity of NGOs to provide aid was also limited due to restrictions like the Foreign Contribution Regulation Act (FCRA).

Sridhar further added that “This highlights the need for a more participatory and democratized approach to meteorology, involving fishworkers and ocean people in modern scientific prediction methods who have the traditional knowledge of the sea and weather. Moreover, in terms of preparation, proactive measures such as releasing water from reservoirs before the cyclone would have mitigated the flooding. However, the state government did not take these steps, blaming inadequate warnings from the IMD.”

The ocean people, or fishworkers, are experiencing daily losses, making their plight a clear candidate for the ‘Loss and Damage Fund.’ At the COP27 and 28 world leaders recognized the need to support low-income developing countries grappling with the devastating impacts of climate change.

The result was the creation of the Loss and Damage Fund, a financial lifeline aimed at helping these vulnerable nations recover from climate-induced natural disasters. To ensure the effective implementation of this fund, a Transitional Committee was established, including representatives from 24 developed and developing nations. This collaborative effort underscores a global commitment to addressing the urgent needs of those most affected by climate change.

A compelling aspect of the Loss and Damage Fund is its recognition of both economic and non-economic losses. Non-economic losses encompass injury, loss of life, health, rights, biodiversity, ecosystem services, indigenous knowledge, and cultural heritage—areas where marginalized communities are most affected. For instance, while economic losses might include income forfeited due to heatwaves, non-economic losses would cover the displacement of communities from coastal villages due to beach erosion.

The faces of fishworkers from Andhra Pradesh portray the many work challenges they have faced since the COVID-19 pandemic. Aishwarya Bajpai/IPS

This highlights the profound vulnerability of fishworkers and ocean-dependent communities, acutely impacted by these environmental changes. Further, due to limited economic and social resources available with the fishworkers, some adaptive and counter measures are beyond the fishworkers’ capacities.

The Loss and Damage Fund can be allocated to those results of extreme climate events that cannot be countered or are beyond the practice of climate adaptation (activities to prepare and adjust to the climate change), for example, loss of lives and cultural practices. This complexity will make it harder for marginalized communities like fishworkers to argue their case and access the fund.

Cyclone Yass was a disaster. A low-pressure area formed over the North Andaman Sea and adjoining the east-central Bay of Bengal around May 22, 2021, and further intensified into a severe cyclonic storm, named ‘Cyclone Yaas’. While the coastal region of Sunderban was preparing for a thunderstorm and was thinking of the scale of damage the cyclone could bring, the scenario was a bit different. There was hardly any storm on that day but due to rising sea level, the whole Sunderban and Howrah region, the banks of the Ganges, got flooded, devastating fish stock. Credit: Credit: Kaushik Dutta / Climate Visuals

Despite establishing such measures, the global response has often been more talk than action. Experts argue that the pledged amounts fall drastically short, covering less than 0.2 percent of what developing countries require, estimated at a minimum of $400 billion annually, according to the Loss and Damage Finance Landscape report. In response, members of the Transitional Committee from developing nations have proposed that the fund should aim to allocate at least USD 100 billion annually by 2030 to meet these pressing needs.

“The loss and damage fund should be considered for not only immediate relief and rescue operations but also for preparedness and spreading knowledge. A participatory approach to meteorology can enhance prediction accuracy and disaster preparedness. Additionally, slower and ongoing disasters like coastal erosion and declining fish catches due to climate change also require attention. Fishworkers in various regions have demanded compensation for “fish famine” similar to agricultural famine relief,” Sridhar said.

The Adaptation Gap Report 2023 emphasizes that “a justice lens underscores that loss and damage is not the product of climate hazards alone but is influenced by differential vulnerabilities to climate change, which are often driven by a range of socio-political processes, including racism and histories of colonialism and exploitation.”

As India continues to battle these extreme weather events, the call for tangible action and equitable solutions becomes ever more urgent. The world watches and waits—will the promises of climate justice be fulfilled, or will they remain hollow words in the face of escalating crises?

This feature is published with the support of Open Society Foundations.

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Kenya is home to the world’s first-ever blue carbon initiative that sold carbon credits from mangrove conservation along its vast coastline. Credit: Joyce Chimbi/IPS

By Joyce Chimbi
NAIROBI, May 27 2024 (IPS)

Carbon trading has gained growing popularity on the African continent and is considered by many governments as a viable way to achieve their climate targets while building communities. IPS takes a look at what’s behind the carbon market.

What is carbon trading and where did it come from?

During the United Nations Climate Change Conference in 2015, 196 nations agreed to an internationally binding treaty on climate change known as the Paris Agreement. The agreement was a commitment to limit global warming to 1.5°C by the end of this century. 

A significant rise in global temperatures is a significant threat as it increases the effects of climate change, such as prolonged and severe droughts and deadly floods, like those experienced in Kenya recently, killing people and animals and destroying crops and critical infrastructure.

One of the biggest contributors to global warming or a dangerous rise in temperatures are greenhouse gas emissions, which include carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide. Carbon emissions are particularly dangerous. These gases are emitted as human beings go about their day-to-day living and business activities, such as driving a vehicle or running factory machines using coal-generated electricity.

The Paris Agreement, therefore, requires that nations make significant efforts to reduce carbon emissions. One of the solutions laid out was carbon emissions trading—those who reduce emissions would receive a financial reward and those that emit would bear a financial responsibility.

Simply put, carbon emissions trading allows you—who is unable to reduce carbon emissions to the required limits—to pay someone who is not only successfully limiting their own carbon emissions but has also gone a step further to remove additional carbon from the atmosphere. A similar approach was deployed in the 1990s to successfully remove sulphur from the atmosphere.

How does carbon trading work?

One of the best ways of removing carbon from the atmosphere is by planting and maintaining mangrove trees, as they capture 3–5 times more carbon from the atmosphere compared to other types of trees.

Kenya has various projects that remove carbon from the atmosphere and receive money for doing so through projects such as the Mikoko Pamoja (Swahili for Mangroves Together) and the Vanga Blue Forest. Mikoko Pamoja project was the first in the world to trade in carbon from planting mangroves.

The Mikoko community plants mangroves and successfully removes at least 3,000 metric tonnes of CO2 from the atmosphere per year. The project started in 2013 and it will continue to capture carbon for trading until 2033, generating an annual revenue of about USD 130,000 from selling all the carbon captured annually.

Internationally recognized scientific methods exist to calculate how much carbon a certain business, activity or project emits and how much carbon a project, like the Mikoko Pamoja, captures in a year.

One tonne of carbon dioxide emitted into the environment is equivalent to one carbon credit. A carbon credit is a permit to emit carbon dioxide. For example, in line with the Paris Agreement, when company X in Europe is unable to reduce their emissions by say 3,000 metric tons, they can ‘artificially’ reduce them by paying for carbon credits from a community in Kenya that is able to reduce emissions and go a step further and remove an additional 3,000 metric tonnes from the atmosphere.

The community is allowed to sell the excess amount of carbon captured, in this case, 3,000 metric tonnes. The principle of selling and buying carbon credits is that the Kenyan community is already living below their emissions, have no obligation to make additional carbon emission reductions, but have been incentivized to remove more carbon from the atmosphere for money.

Company X is therefore punished by having to pay for the carbon they are releasing but at the same time rewarded by having their own carbon emissions wiped off by the carbon removal activities conducted by the Kenyan community.

What is a carbon market?

There are many carbon markets around the world. The kind of exchange of carbon emitted for money described above is conducted through a carbon market called the Voluntary Carbon Market. The community in Kenya planting mangroves to capture carbon uses a middleman or broker to find a market for their carbon and negotiate the best price on their behalf.

The money is deposited into the community’s bank accounts for the community’s development projects. For example, Kenya’s Vanga Blue Forest spans over 460 hectares and is expected to avoid emissions of over 100,379tCO2-eq over a 20-year period.

In sub-Saharan Africa, an estimated 65 percent of carbon credits issued are in the voluntary carbon market, concentrated in just five countries: Kenya, Uganda, Ethiopia, Zimbabwe, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

The government of Kenya can enter into a carbon trading arrangement with another government and this bilateral approach is much more lucrative compared to the voluntary approach. The World Bank estimates that one ton of carbon dioxide or one carbon credit would cost between 40 and 80 USD, in line with the Paris Agreement.

Remember, if you—from anywhere in the world—pay for one carbon credit from the Mikoko Pamoja project, you are essentially buying a permit to emit one ton of carbon dioxide.

In 2020, the Vanga Blue Forest received USD 48,713 in exchange for the carbon captured that year.

The voluntary carbon trading sector has grown exponentially and was valued at USD 2 billion in 2022. The players in the voluntary market gathered in Kenya in June 2023 for the world’s largest carbon credit auction event where more than 2.2 million tonnes of carbon credits were sold.

This auction worked the same way as a painting auction works—only that carbon is an intangible commodity. Emitters haggle for the best prices to buy carbon credits or permits to help them wipe off their own emissions—they pay for the permit to emit.

What are the advantages and disadvantages of carbon trading?

Heavy carbon emitters are in the global north. Africa for instance, emits about 3.8 percent of global carbon emissions. Kenya’s alone accounts for less than 1 percent of global carbon emissions.

Some say carbon trading systems are fraudulent—the global North buys the ‘permission’ to continue polluting and the global south receives financial crumbs to wipe off the former’s harmful emissions. They also say carbon markets are a new form of colonialism and a distraction, as heavy emitters continue to emit without making strides to reduce their own emissions. Human Rights Watch has also expressed concern about the rights of an Indigenous community in Cambodia as carbon trading continues.

For others, carbon markets are increasing carbon removal projects while providing the money that developing countries need to accelerate growth and development.

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The US Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, with CAF President, Dr Patrice Motsepe while on tour in Africa. Some commentators have questioned the effectiveness of US foreign policy in Africa. Credit: CAF media

By Promise Eze
ABUJA, Jan 30 2024 (IPS)

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s week-long tour across four African countries was aimed at strengthening the US-Africa relationship—a relationship, according to some commentators, already waning as China and Russia are increasing their influence.

Blinken made his first stop in Cape Verde, a small island in West Africa, where he engaged Prime Minister Ulisses Correia e Silva in discussions and reiterated the US dedication to deepening and expanding its collaborations with Africa. Continuing his diplomatic journey, he then proceeded to Ivory Coast, Nigeria, and concluded his tour in Angola.

While Blicken, on his tour, touted the US as a crucial economic and security ally for Africa, particularly during times of regional and global challenges, analysts say that US foreign policy towards Africa has suggested that the continent may have been “pushed to the back burner.” Their assertions are not baseless.

At the US-Africa Leaders Summit in Washington in November 2022, President Joe Biden made commitments to support democracy in Africa and announced his endorsement for a permanent seat for the African Union at the Group of 20. Biden also promised to visit the continent but that dream never materialised as Washington was preoccupied with a host of global challenges, such as the war in Gaza and the Russia-Ukraine war.

Addressing questions about Biden’s unsuccessful visit during an interview in Nigeria, Blinken defended the president by saying, “It is just the opposite. The President very much wants to come to Africa. We have [had] 17 cabinet-level or department-level officials come since the Africa Leaders Summit.”

US Counterproductive Counter-terrorism Fight

In Abidjan, the capital of Ivory Coast, Secretary of State Antony Blinken pledged USD 45 million to bolster security along the West African coast. This commitment extends the funding for an ongoing program in the region, bringing the total to USD 300 million. Blinken commended the Ivorian military for their counterinsurgency efforts in combating armed groups, acknowledging the difficulty of the region’s location between Mali and Burkina Faso and recognizing hotspots for violence in the Sahel.

For over two decades, the US has made consistent efforts to enhance security and promote democracy, particularly in the Sahel. However, despite these investments, terrorism persists, leading to frequent coups that pose a continuous threat to the stability of the continent.

Last year saw President Mohamed Bazoum of the Niger Republic—a crucial US ally—forcibly ousted from power by disgruntled US–trained military officers. This coup dealt a significant blow to Niger’s sprouting democracy, as President Bazoum had ascended to power through the country’s first democratic elections. Moreover, it marked a setback to the longstanding US endeavours to foster democracy in the Sahel.

Facing international pressure, the coup plotters justified their actions by pointing to President Bazoum’s perceived inability to effectively address the threat of insurgency in the country, despite substantial investments by the US in regional security.

Since 2012, the US has allocated more than USD 500 million in security assistance to Niger, positioning it as the leading recipient of US military aid in West Africa and the second-highest in sub-Saharan Africa.

In addition to having troops on the ground, the US currently operates a drone base in sub-Saharan Africa, a USD 100 million facility based in Agadez. However, despite these advancements, counterinsurgency operations funded by taxpayers have given rise to splinter groups associated with jihadist militancy, causing distress in villages and towns.

Experts attribute the insurgency in Sub-Saharan Africa to the US-led invasion of Libya, which failed to bring stability to the country and resulted in the proliferation of arms and violent groups across the region when foreign fighters, especially the Turareg rebels loyal to Libya’s dictator, Colonel Muammar Gaddafi, fled the country after his death.

A recent report by the Africa Center for Strategic Studies, a US defense department research institution, indicates that the Sahel experienced the largest increase in violent events linked to militant Islamists in the past year compared to any other region in Africa, with 2,737 violent events. The report notes that attacks linked to militant Islamist groups in the Sahel have surged by 3,500% since 2016.

“If the US had not destabilised Libya, there is no way Nigeria, Mali, Niger, Chad, and Burkina Faso would have been in chaos,” argues Zainab Dabo, a Nigerian-based political analyst.

“With military takeovers in [West Africa], along with a general distrust for the West, Blinken is here to offer an irresistible package of promises in a bid to remain relevant, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa, where Russia is gaining influence,’’ she added.

For the US, Russia’s expanding influence in Africa is a cause for worry. The rivalry between the two nations intensified significantly following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Russia justified its actions by citing the US-led NATO expansion in Ukraine, which it deemed a threat. Although the US has refrained from direct involvement in the conflict, it has provided substantial financial and military assistance to Ukraine.

Meanwhile, tensions between the US and Russia are escalating in Africa. This is evident as coup plotters, many of whom have undergone military training in the US, are now ditching the West to seek military support from the Russian-backed private military Wagner group in their efforts to combat terrorism. Russia is also actively seeking to gain influence in Africa and challenge the dominance of the dollar through the BRICS.

However, while the Biden administration is considering designating the Wagner Group, a Russian group, as a terrorist organisation for its human rights violations, the US has always shied away from its own misdeeds in Africa.

US military partnerships on the continent have been marred by a record of human rights abuses, fostering distrust of Western influence.

In Nigeria, where Blicken promised support for improved security, a US-Nigerian airstrike in 2017 hit a refugee camp in Raan, near the Cameroon border, killing at least 115.  Until today, no one has been held accountable for the massacre, and the victims have not gotten justice.

In Somalia, where the US military has conducted numerous airstrikes against the Islamic Jihad group Al-Shabaab for more than a decade, civilian casualties have become inevitable, many leaving family members in agony and with no hope of justice.

In 2020, Amnesty International slammed the US Africa Command (AFRICOM) for killing a woman and a young child in an airstrike in Somalia. Despite the families of the victims of this strike contacting the US Mission to Somalia, Amnesty International reported that neither US diplomatic staff nor AFRICOM had reached out to them to offer reparation.

US, China, Russia and the Scramble for Africa

According to Frank Tietie, a lawyer and human rights activist in Abuja, Nigeria’s capital, Blinken’s visit coincides with a period when America’s influence is perceived to be at a low point in the recent scramble for Africa. Tietie maintains that the US needs to go beyond merely advocating for democracy and should actively match China and Russia’s efforts by deploying both financial and developmental resources.

Since 2003, Chinese foreign direct investment (FDI) in Africa has experienced a substantial increase, rising from a modest USD 74.8 million in 2003 to USD 5.4 billion in 2018. Although it saw a decline to USD 2.7 billion in 2019, the trend reversed, despite the challenges posed by the COVID-19 pandemic, with a resurgence to USD 4.2 billion in 2020. However, concerns arise regarding China’s infrastructural investments and over USD 170 billion worth of loans in Africa, which are perceived as exploitative, given the expectation of natural resources in exchange.

During a meeting with President João Lourenço of Angola, Blinken praised the advancements in one of the US’s most significant investments in Africa: the construction of the Lobito Corridor, a crucial rail link for metals exports from the central African Copper Belt. However, for Tietie, who holds that the US is bent on containing the influence of Russia and China in Africa, such developments are insufficient.

“The gospel of democracy by the Americans [in Africa] has not been able to match the alluring and tantalising presence of the Chinese with their loans and offer to exploit natural resources in exchange for cash. The Americans must do more than ordinary promises, many of which we have had in the past that have not translated to growth and development for African countries,” Tietie told IPS.

For Dabo, Africa, which she described as “the land of opportunities,” will keep being exploited for its natural resources by the US and China if the US does not put its capacities to good use.

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A peninsula separates the Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea in the southwestern village of Scottshead, Dominica. Post-COP28 the region plans to create a Climate Smart Zone in the Caribbean - one of the world’s most climate-vulnerable regions. Credit: Alison Kentish/IPS

By Alison Kentish
SAINT LUCIA, Dec 19 2023 (IPS)

Buoyed by USD 800 million in pledges to the Loss and Damage Fund and an unprecedented agreement to transition away from fossil fuels, but grounded in the reality of the work ahead to meet key climate targets, the Caribbean will need to maintain its focus on sustainable agriculture, renewable energy, and climate resilience.

That is according to Raquel Moses, UNFCCC Global Ambassador of Small Island Developing States and CEO of the Caribbean Climate Smart Accelerator (CCSA), a partnership of 28 Caribbean governments and global companies working towards making the Caribbean a climate-smart zone.

Moses led a small but dedicated three-woman CCSA team to the climate talks in Dubai. There, the team participated and hosted events to secure financing for climate-resilient projects in the Caribbean, advocate for the Loss and Damage Fund, and present innovative, home-grown solutions to build resilience in the Caribbean.

“The first global stocktake synthesis report by the UNFCCC provides a roadmap for all parties to accelerate their climate action efforts to meet the 1.5-degree target, and the ‘Later is Too Late campaign,’ which we were proud to be a part of, created a strong push for the just phase-out of fossil fuels, the tripling of renewable energy, and the doubling of energy efficiency. While there is still much work to be done, we are especially hopeful given the leadership coming from the Caribbean, which continued to coalesce around one strong voice throughout the COP process,” Moses said.

The deals at COP28 have been tempered by the reality that what happens next will be more important than the pledges and text on paper.

“It is following through to understand how this manifests itself and what is the climate justice impact of a particular decision. When you hear things like climate finance being operationalized for particular things, looking at when the board is implemented on the Loss and Damage Fund, who is on that board and what kind of autonomy do they have? What kind of ability do they have to act with speed, for example? And that for me is a climate justice issue,” she said, noting that the Caribbean needs investment and it also needs heightened philanthropy to meet climate goals.

Among those goals is a long-term vision of creating a Climate Smart Zone in the Caribbean, one of the world’s most climate-vulnerable regions. Moses says the accelerator will build on projects that promote sustainable agriculture, renewable energy, and resilience-building.

“We are excited about our climate-smart agriculture that was launched in August in Anguilla, Barbados, and the Cayman Islands and are looking to see that expand next year. We are always looking for donors that are willing to help us to fortify and secure our food. That is a huge part not just of our adaptation, but it can also be a source of our mitigation because the carbon dioxide that we spend on importing food is unnecessary. As the climate crisis exacerbates, it means that there is more uncertainty in our food production,” Moses said.

As it promotes climate-resilient solutions for the Caribbean, the Accelerator is investing heavily in innovation. It observed a milestone in Dubai when officials launched a Climate Smart Map, a platform with climate action data for 26 Caribbean countries. It is a major relief for a region beset with challenges in accessing current, reliable data for development.

“It demonstrates leadership in global transformation and showcases that we are capable of homegrown, cutting-edge solutions.This data-rich tool pinpoints the main areas of progress and needs across CCSA’s 28 coalition countries, enabling project curation and entrepreneurship. This will help project developers, philanthropists, and investors take a regional view of addressing our needs. To advocate for the Loss and Damage Fund, which has now been operationalized and is beginning to be seriously capitalized,” Moses said.

While the map addresses the dearth of data in the region, the accelerator will be working hard on two other major challenges: fit-for-purpose financing and project preparation funding.

“The Caribbean boasts remarkable projects and visionary initiatives—such as the D30 biofuel by the Carbon Neutral Initiative in Jamaica and the ambitious push for 100% renewable energy in countries like Aruba, Barbados, Dominica, and Grenada—but securing fit-for-purpose financing remains a persistent hurdle,” CCSA’s Director of Public Sector Projects Kiesha Farum told IPS ahead of the climate talks.

“Many projects also require funding for due diligence, assessments, and analysis to attract investor interest and to become ‘bankable.’ Actively pursuing financing is where we see grants, philanthropy, and concessional financing playing a major role. Bringing this type of financing to the region is of great focus, particularly during major events like COP and investor forums aimed at matching projects with potential investors,” she said.

Caribbean SIDS have rallied around calls by Barbados’s Prime Minister, Mia Mottley, for an overhaul of global climate financing. She has said that this shake-up, coined the Bridgetown Initiative, would be based on climate justice, ensuring that the greatest contributors to the climate crisis help countries like those in the Caribbean access finance to respond and build resilience to a crisis they did little to create.

The initiative also promotes innovative financing for climate-related projects. Those at the heart of the mission to build a climate-smart zone in the Caribbean know that conventional financing mechanisms are no longer sufficient to address present climate realities.

“Traditional financiers often seek long-term guarantees and short-term returns, which may not align with the nature and timelines of many climate resilience projects, such as those focused on nature conservation. On a national scale, solutions like debt-for-nature and debt-for-climate swaps, where a portion of government debt is cancelled in exchange for commitments to fund nature conservation projects, prove immensely beneficial,” the CCSA’s Finance Innovation Director, Cheryl Senhouse, told IPS.

‘A notable example is Belize, which completed the world’s largest debt refinancing through a debt-for-nature swap in 2021, directing USD 364 million for marine conservation. Similarly, Barbados executed a USD 150 million debt swap in 2022, generating USD 50 million for marine conservation. Given the significant contribution of the tourism sector to many Caribbean countries’ GDP, solutions like these have positive cascading effects.”

The CCSA officials say the road to COP29 started on December 13. It is a nod to the work ahead. For the Caribbean, it signals the need for greater solidarity and action on sustainable food systems, renewable energy projects, and innovative financing.

“We will continue to work ambitiously to expand on our climate smart map, secure fit-for-purpose financing for projects that will protect 30% of our land and ocean. We want to see the region reach 90% Renewable Energy for All by 2035 and usher in a new economy with at least 1.5% new green jobs,” said Moses.

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Women were reduced to cheerleaders in Zimbabwe's recent 2023 general elections. Credit: Farai Shawn Matiashe/IPS

By Farai Shawn Matiashe
BULAWAYO, Nov 6 2023 (IPS)

Zimbabwe’s recent election has exposed weak gender policies both at the political party and governmental levels as women were sidelined despite the fact that they make up more than half of the 6.5 million electorate.

Zimbabwe held its presidential, parliamentary and local municipality elections on August 23 and 24.

Only 22 women were elected for the 210 National Assembly seats out of the 70 women contested against 637 male candidates, according to the Election Resource Centre.

The number of women who contested the National Assembly seats shows a decline compared to the previous election in 2018, where the number of women who competed against men was 14 percent.

In the 2023 election, the total number of women was 11 percent.

The 22 women who were successfully duly elected as Members of Parliament represent a meagre 10 percent of women in the National Assembly, meaning only 30 percent of the women who contested won, according to the Women’s Academy for Leadership and Political Excellence (WALPE).

This figure has fallen from the 25 women, 11.9 percent, who won seats in the 2018 elections.

“There is a lack of political will on the part of our political leaders to promote gender equality,” says WALPE executive director Sitabile Dewa.

“The political environment in Zimbabwe is characterised by violence, patriarchy, fear, harassment and marginalisation of women in electoral processes. These challenges are some of the major impediments to women’s ascendancy to leadership positions at all levels of government within the country.”

Dewa tells IPS that for Zimbabwe to close the gender gap, political party leaders must walk the talk on equality through genuinely and sincerely levelled the electoral field to allow women, young women and women with disabilities to freely, actively and fully participate as both candidates and voters.

A video went viral recently after a Zanu PF campaigner used derogatory names to refer to Judith Tobaiwa, a female candidate for Kwekwe Central, a constituency located 215 kilometres from Harare, Zimbabwe’s capital.

Expensive nomination fees were also a barrier to many aspiring female candidates.

In the 2023 general polls, the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission raised the nomination fees beyond the reach of many women who are already disadvantaged economically as compared to their male counterparts in the country.

Presidential candidates paid USD 20,000 while parliamentary candidates parted away with $1000 and $100 for council candidates.

In contrast, in 2018, presidential candidates paid USD 1,000, while legislators paid USD 50.

Linda Masarira of the opposition party Labour, Economists and African Democrats (LEAD) is one of the aspiring presidential candidates who struggled to raise the USD 20,000 nomination fees needed by ZEC this year.

While seats for the National Assembly were shared between CCC and Zanu PF, those from the smaller parties and female candidates who ran as independents failed to win any seats from the plebiscite, showing difficulties outside the main political parties.

All these figures fall short of the 30 percent minimum threshold set out in the 1997 Southern African Development Community (SADC) Declaration on Gender and Development, Zimbabwe’s Constitution, the United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 5, which seeks to promote gender equality and empower all women and girls, according to WAPLE.

In June, the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission (ZEC) announced 11 presidential candidates, and there were no women.

Two female presidential candidates, Elisabeth Valerio of United Zimbabwe Alliance (UZA) and Masarira, were blocked by ZEC on petty issues of late payment of nomination fees.

Both female presidential candidates took their matters to court.

Valerio won her case, and ZEC was forced to accept her nomination papers.

But Masarira lost the case.

Incumbent Emmerson Mnangagwa of Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front (Zanu PF) was controversially declared the winner of the hotly disputed contested election with 52.6 percent against his biggest rival Nelson Chamisa of Citizens Coalition for Change (CCC) with 44 percent of the vote.

The opposition has since rejected the election as the polls were marred by voter intimidation, ballot paper delays in opposition strongholds like Harare, Bulawayo and some parts of Manicaland Province and rigging by the electoral body in favour of the ruling Zanu PF.

Multiple observer reports, including SADC, declared the elections not credible, not free, and not fair.

The recently reelected leader has appointed just six women out of 26 cabinet positions.

The gender gap is manifesting in Mnangagwa’s appointment of cabinet ministers.

When Mnangagwa announced his cabinet ministers in September, only six were women out of 26 positions, representing 23 percent.

“It is going to be a mammoth task for Zimbabwe to achieve 50/50 gender balance as enshrined in the Constitution,” says Masarira.

She says this is because the country does not have a “Gender Equality Act to operationalise” some sections of the Constitution.

“Secondly, there is selective application of the Constitution by political parties and the government itself, especially when it comes to issues to do with gender balance, gender equality and non-discrimination,” Masarira says.

Kembo Mohadi, the vice president who was forced to resign in 2021 amid a sex scandal, bounced back as Mnangagwa’s deputy.

Alleged recorded calls of Mohadi soliciting sex from married women who are his subordinates were leaked to the local media. Mohadi has not been charged with any sexual offence and has refuted the audio saying he was a victim of a political plot and voice cloning.

“Mr Mnangagwa is obviously not bothered by Mohadi’s sex scandals or anyone for that matter,” says Gladys Hlatywayo, a CCC senior official.

“In fact, we have always known that the sex scandals were never the reason why he was forced to resign and were a mere cover-up to a political motive. The message that Mr Mnangagwa is sending by reappointing Mohadi is that he does not care at all about women’s rights issues,” she tells IPS.

Dewa says Mahadi’s reappointment as Zimbabwe’s Vice President shows that President Mnangagwa is not willing to consider the welfare and well-being of women.

“Mr Mohadi’s re-appointment stinks in the face of justice for all survivors of sexual abuse by men. It is an indictment on the highest office of the land that women’s rights are of no importance,” she says.

“The office of the Vice President demands the highest levels of integrity and moral probity by its occupants.”

The 2013 Zimbabwean Constitution introduced a women’s quota system, setting aside 60 out of 270 parliamentary seats for women.

This proportional representation provision, which was set to expire in 2023, was extended for two additional electoral cycles by an amendment made to the Constitution by Mnangagwa’s regime last year.

Some women prefer these proportional representation seats as compared to the contested ones.

Dewa says there is a need for a complete overhaul of the current electoral system to promote gender equality in politics.

“The electoral voting system must be changed from the first past the post to proportional representation, with a list in zebra format, as this guarantees gender equality. Citizens must vote for political parties, not individuals, as this also insulates women from political violence and vote buying,” she says.

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There is an urgency for the loss and damage fund to become a reality as many developing countries are impacted due to climate change. Credit: Busani Bafana/IPS

By Busani Bafana
BULAWAYO, Apr 14 2023 (IPS)

In March 2023, more than 600 people died in Malawi after Tropical Cyclone Freddy dumped heavy rain, flooding the southern part of the country, displacing over half a million people, and damaging property and livelihoods.

The Malawi disaster is a stark example of “loss and damage” – the negative impacts of human-caused climate change that is affecting many parts of Africa.

Last November, COP 27 achieved a historic agreement to establish a dedicated Fund for damage, and the growing negative impacts of climate change highlight the urgency of financial support to address loss and damage for vulnerable countries.

Climate finance now

Malawi, like many developing countries, neither has the capability nor the capacity to defend itself against climate change events such as floods and droughts that are increasingly experienced across the African continent.

The need for climate action in tackling loss and damage is articulated in Article 8 of the Paris Agreement, which recognizes the “importance of averting, minimizing and addressing loss and damage” associated with the adverse effects of climate change.

Loss and damage have taken centre stage in all UN climate discussions for more than 30 years, championed by the Pacific island state of Vanuatu, itself threatened by climate change. Recently Vanuatu led a global campaign for the International Court of Justice to give an advisory opinion on states’ legal obligation for climate action and making them liable for climate failures.

Nearly 200 countries meeting at the annual Conference of the Parties to the IPCC in Sharm El Sheikh last November agreed to establish a “loss and damage” fund to help poor countries, many suffering adverse weather events.  The establishment of the Fund comes after spirited resistance by developed countries on taking responsibility for causing climate change through their historic carbon emissions.

Africa has suffered the brunt of climate change impacts even though it contributes a minuscule amount to global carbon emissions. From tropical cyclones in Malawi, Mozambique and Madagascar, flooding in Nigeria, Uganda and South Africa to devastating drought in the Horn of Africa.

Pakistan’s climate minister Sherry Rehman, whose country was hit by heavy floods that killed more than 1,000 people and damaged property worth billions of dollars, described the decision to establish the Loss and Damage fund as a “down payment on climate justice”.

However, climate justice may be denied than delayed for many vulnerable countries like Pakistan and Malawi, given divisions on the operationalization of the new funding arrangements for Loss and Damage and the associated fund – key issues that formed the agenda of the first meeting of the Transitional Committee.

The Transitional Committee established at COP27 comprises 10 members from developed countries and 14 members from developing countries. It met in Luxor, Egypt from  26-29 March 2023 to ‘present recommendations on the institutional arrangements, modalities, structure, governance, and terms of reference for the Loss and Damage fund’.

Furthermore, the Committee discussed the elements of the new funding arrangements; and identified and expanded sources of funding. In addition, the coordination and complementarity with existing funding arrangements on climate change formed the agenda of the meeting.

While the initial meeting has been described as successful, there were no agreements on the key questions as to who will finance the fund and who qualifies for the funding under the fund.  However, Mohamed Nasr, Egypt’s lead climate negotiator, told an online media briefing that there was agreement on a road map to establish the fund, at least by COP28, to be held in the United Arab Emirates in November 2023. Nasr was optimistic, stating:

“Will it be created? I hope so and assume so, and this is what we are working towards.”

Nasr further explained that there was a movement forward in the understanding of how to deal with these contentious issues by the next Meeting of the Transitional Committee. Not much to go with but Nasr noted that:

“By the next meeting, there will be another stocktake of what we agreed to do … I hope it will deliver in UAE”

The Transitional Committee should tackle three issues on Loss and Damage funding key before COP28, which include what type of fund, the boundaries of the fund and where the money will come from, experts from the World Resources Institute (WRI) argue in a commentary.

“The fund and funding arrangements need to ensure their ability to help vulnerable countries which are experiencing the brunt of climate impacts,”  Preety Bhandari and five other authors in an insight paper on finance.

“They must consider the continuum between loss and damage and adaptation and how funding can also enhance future adaptive capacity,” the experts said, noting that loss and damage was intrinsically linked to adaptation, with increased adaptation leading to less loss and damage.

Asked if the meeting had a clear understanding and achieved what it had set to do, Nasr said:

“I would say it partially happened because the meeting has a lot of different topics for decision. What we want to achieve is already agreed upon among the parties, be it on funding arrangement, be it on complementarity, be it on the resources of the Fund … we moved forward on the understanding of how we are going to deal with them  between now and the next Transitional Committee meeting.”

Counting loss and damage

Loss and Damage, according to the climate talks, refers to costs being incurred from climate-fuelled impacts such as droughts, floods, extreme heat, rising sea levels and cyclones.

UN chief António Guterres described loss and damage as a “fundamental question of climate justice, international solidarity and trust” during the 2022 UN General Assembly, stating that “polluters must pay” because “vulnerable countries need meaningful action”.

Scientist and director of the International Centre for Climate Change and Development (ICCCAD), Saleemul Huq, says the agreement to set up the Loss And Damage Fund was a major breakthrough for the vulnerable developing countries who had been demanding it for many years highlighting that Parties to the UNFCCC have now agreed to find ways to provide funding to the victims of human-induced climate change who are suffering losses and damages.

Huq is confident that if all countries proceed in good faith, the Fund – which is based on shared responsibility and voluntary contributions –  could become formalized and operational at COP28 in Dubai in November 2023.

“We will need to find innovative sources of funding for Loss and Damage such as making the polluting companies (not countries) pay from the exorbitant profits they are making from their pollution,” Huq said to IPS.

Research by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) shows a big financial gap for adaptation. The 2022 Adaptation Gap Report indicates that international adaptation finance flows to developing countries are five to ten times below estimated needs and will need over USD 300 billion per year by 2030.

“It is important that a Loss and Damage Fund tackles the gaps that current climate finance institutions such as the Green Climate Fund do not fill,” the UNEP notes, highlighting that combined adaptation and mitigation finance flows in 2020 fell at least USD 17 billion short of the US$100 billion pledged to developing countries at COP19 in Copenhagen,

UNEP said for the fund to be effective, the root cause of climate change must be tackled – and that involves reducing emissions and finding more resources for mitigation, adaptation and loss and damage.

While the deliberations continue on the arrangement of loss and damage and, more critically, the financing of a deliberate Fund, communities in vulnerable countries like Malawi do not have tomorrow; they have lost today, and the damage they have suffered is not undoable.

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Malawi’s Department of Disaster Management Affairs estimated that 2.2 million people had been affected by Cyclone Freddy, with at least 1 434 fatalities and about USD 1.53 billion in damages. Credit: Red Cross

By Charles Mpaka
SONJEKE, MALAWI, Mar 30 2023 (IPS)

In Sonjeka village in Mulanje district, which lies on the border with Mozambique in southern Malawi, destroyed crop fields stretch almost interminably after floods ripped through them when Tropical Cyclone Freddy pounded the country.

One of those fields lying in waste with its drying maize stalks flattened to the ground, if not ripped off altogether, belongs to Eliza Mponya.

A field close to a hectare in size, this has been the lifeline for the single mother and her four children.

Not that it gives her all the maize which the family needs for the whole year, but it still gets Mponya and her children enough to carry them close to the next harvesting season.

By her estimation, this year, she would have harvested maize that would have lasted the family until the end of November.

Crops destroyed by Cyclone Freddy, which left at least 676 dead and 650 000 displaced. Credit: Charles Mpaka/IPS

“We had good rains here, and we were lucky because my son found piece work in Mozambique, and we managed some fertiliser through what he earned.

“But now, after all the hard work and just when we were close to reaping the rewards, we have this damage. It’s heartbreaking,” she says.

Malawi is in a mourning period, courtesy of the worst natural disaster to have struck the country in recent memory.

Exactly a year after the battering by tropical storms Ana and Gombe, whose devastation the country is yet to recover from, Tropical Freddy hit rather more brutally.

After barreling through Madagascar and Mozambique, the cyclone stormed into Malawi on March 11, 2023. From the afternoon of March 12, rain poured over 10 of the 13 districts in the southern region of the country for the next 72 hours.

Rivers broke their banks; furious waters gorged through unlikely landscapes, and, beyond anyone’s expectation, several mud avalanches pushed down giant boulders from mountainous areas that, in some cases, swept away entire villages and crushed homes and people below at night.

President Lazarus Chakwera declared it a state of disaster, calling for help, a plea to which both local and the international community have responded generously.

The scale of the destruction is unprecedented in any natural disaster Malawi has experienced. A draft situation report which the Department of Disaster Management Affairs (DoDMA), a government agency, released on Wednesday, March 29, shows that up to 2.2 million people have been affected thus far; 676 have been killed, and 538 are missing – many of them feared to have been buried in the mudslides and rubble of collapsed buildings or washed away to unknown lands.

At the appropriate time, the police will declare the missing people dead, DoDMA says.

According to the report, up to 2,000 people are nursing various degrees of injuries, some while still in the over 760 evacuation camps that are hosting over 650,000 that have been displaced in the affected districts.

Up to 405 kilometres of road infrastructure have been damaged, and 63 health facilities and close to a million water and sanitation facilities have been affected.

The worst hit of all sectors, according to the report, is agriculture, the mainstay of Malawi’s economy. Over 2 million farmers have lost their crops and livestock, and over 179,000 hectares of crop fields have been destroyed.

Mponya’s field is among those counted.

Her maize crop would have been ready for harvest sometime towards the end of April. Now floods have harvested it, and Mponya is broken.

“I have never experienced anything like this in my life,” she tells IPS.

On March 23, 2023, the Ministry of Agriculture launched its own assessment of the damage the cyclone has caused to the agriculture sector in the region. It is yet to release its report on the assessment and the interventions that it will undertake to bail out the affected farmers.

However, in effect, the cyclone has worsened the food security situation for millions of people for the year. This comes against the backdrop of the government distributing food to 3.8 million food-insecure households, an exercise meant to see them through to the next harvest, which is now struck by the storm.

In an earlier forecast, the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWSNET), a USAID-supported global food security monitoring activity, said the southern region could register a decrease ranging between 30 and 50 percent in the harvest of maize, Malawi’s staple crop and a key factor in the economy.

This, it said, would leave poor households running out of food stocks by end of August instead of October, as it usually happens with most such households in a good harvest year.

FEWSNET cited limited and delayed access to fertiliser for most subsistence farmers who rely on the government’s fertiliser subsidy programme that was rocked by logistical and procurement challenges in this growing season and due to high prices of the commodity on the normal market, which drove the farm input out of reach for most of them.

FEWSNET compiled the report before Cyclone Freddy lashed the country.

Christone Nyondo, a research fellow at MwAPATA Institute, a local independent agricultural policy think-tank, says the cyclone has effectively struck a blow on household food security in the region and the country.

According to Nyondo, families that have lost their food crops will struggle to cope without external help. He, therefore, suggests assistance for the affected farmers to replant short-duration maize varieties.

He further says crops that can still do well when planted under residual moisture should be promoted to provide a short-term coping mechanism for the households as they recover.

However, Nyondo argues that Malawi needs to invest in long-term and enduring disaster-proactive measures considering that these natural shocks will keep occurring in the face of climate change.

According to Nyondo, an agricultural economist, for a long time, Malawi has focused much of its efforts on post-disaster recovery. It is high time the country did a deep rethink of its policies and invest significantly in early warning systems and forward planning based on intelligence gathered from these early warning systems, he says.

“The specific interventions to safeguard food security will vary by season by the nature of the predicted disaster. If the predicted disaster is a widespread drought, then forward planning in terms of strategic investments in irrigation infrastructure will be key,” Nyondo tells IPS via email.

He adds: “But, in any case, we need to invest more in irrigation, storage and other critical infrastructure without waiting for disasters. That’s the surest way of safeguarding our food security. Yes, it will be expensive but it will also be necessary.”

Back in Mulanje district, Mponya has no idea how she will recover.

Unlike some people in her village, she has not suffered any damage to her house or the loss of any member of her family. But she says it is a tragedy of her life that for the first time as a farmer, the 51-year-old will harvest almost nothing from her field after months of toil, leaving her to face a year-long struggle for food.

Asked whether she has a way out, Mponya stares blankly and then says, “I don’t know what to do.”

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Governments low- and middle-income countries are encouraged to take note of a new story that finds cash transfers help with mental health of those living in poverty. Credit: Annie Spratt/Unsplash

By Francis Kokutse
ACCRA, Mar 23 2023 (IPS)

Poverty alleviation policies, especially cash transfers, will not only improve the poor condition of the beneficiaries but can also play a role in strengthening the psychological health of people as well as improve the mental health of those living in poverty in low- and middle-income countries (LMICS), including Africa, a new study has said.

An example of these poverty alleviation programmes is the Livelihood Empowerment Against Poverty (LEAP), under Ghana’s ministry of gender, children and social protection for extremely poor and vulnerable households. This is made up of orphaned children, persons with severe disabilities without productive capacity as well as elderly persons who are 65 and above.

The aim is to improve, among other things, basic household consumption, and nutrition among children below two years of age and the aged. It is also intended to increase access to health care services among children below five years of age.

The study found more than 20,000 Africans, out of 26,794 people receiving these cash transfers under poverty alleviation programmes in six countries across Africa, admitted that this financial assistance does have some effect on their mental health.

A co-author of the study, Clara Wollburg, affiliated with the department of social policy and intervention, University of Oxford, Oxford, told IPS, “13 out of the 17 studies were conducted in Sub-Saharan Africa. Of those studies, four were located in Malawi, four in Kenya, two in South Africa, and one each in Zambia, Mali, and Uganda.”

The World Health Organization defines mental health as “a state of well-being in which an individual realizes his or her own abilities, can cope with the normal stresses of life, can work productively and is able to make a contribution to his or her community.” And in Africa, StrongMinds Uganda says “despite the high prevalence of mental illnesses across the continent, mental health remains under prioritized in many African countries.”

The study, “Do cash transfers alleviate common mental disorders in low- and middle-income countries? A systematic review and meta-analysis,” published in PLOS One journal on February 22, 2023, said their “findings lend weight to the hypothesis that poverty alleviation can play a role in strengthening psychological health of people living in poverty in Low and Middle-Income Countries (LMICs.)”

It said their “analysis shows that providing populations living in poverty with cash transfers leads to improvements of depression and anxiety disorders. However, these benefits may not be sustained once the financial support ends,” the authors said.

Nigerian-born associate professor in psychiatry living in the US, Andrews O Newton, said the recent Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) decision that has denied a lot of people access to cash could lead to depression. “Depression is the commonest form of mental illness. However, most people do not know because sufferers are not seen outside. The chronic stress caused by governmental policies makes it more severe, and one terrible consequence is suicide,” Newton said. The CBN has since been legally obliged to delay its deadlines to redesign the currency.

He said, “extreme poverty dehumanizes,” adding that such a situation is likely to lead to “feeling sad and empty, poor concentration, lack of drive and motivation, poor sleep as well as lack of energy.

The study focused on people living in poverty, who are recipients of cash transfers, and participants in inactive control groups, who received no transfers or were enrolled at a later stage, served as a comparison group. Active control groups receiving alternative interventions were not included, as this makes a causal inference about the effects of the transfers difficult.

They included conditional and unconditional cash transfer programmes (CTPs) targeted at households living in poverty in LMICs but did not apply an absolute low-income/poverty threshold, relying only on the relative threshold for grant eligibility applied by the organizations administering the transfers.

“Our findings have important implications for policymakers in Africa as they show that providing cash transfers to people living in poverty not only improves poverty indicators and school attendance, for example, but also meaningfully impacts depression and anxiety outcomes of beneficiaries. This is especially true for unconditional cash transfers,” Wollburg said.

She said they analyzed cash transfer programs that were specifically targeted to low-income and/or deprived households as indicated by, e.g., low monthly household expenditure and consumption, inability to meet basic needs, food insecurity, low educational attainment and high HIV risk.

Esenam Abra Drah, a mental health advocate in the Ghanaian capital, Accra, said, “from personal experience if you don’t have money, it can be frustrating.” Esenam understands this because she was diagnosed with bipolar disorder in August 2015 at the time she was studying Bachelor of Arts degree in French and Linguistics at the University of Ghana.

Currently serving as an executive member of Psychosocial Africa, a grassroots mental health support group set up by, and for people with lived experience of mental illness, Drah admitted as the study showed that her situation affected her schoolwork though she was able to graduate.

The study cautioned that policies aiming to address the poverty-mental health cycle should consider unconditional, longer-term support to populations living in poverty.

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#EndSars protests against police brutality is seen by analysts as a turning point in Nigerian politics and the youth vote is expected to be critical in the 2023 election. Credit: Emmanuel Ikwuegbu/Unsplash

By Chuks Ohuegbe
ABUJA, Feb 24 2023 (IPS)

From all indications, President Muhammadu Buhari will be handing over a fractured nation that is deeply divided along ethnic and religious lines when he formally hands over to his successor on May 29, 2023. This would-be successor will be inheriting a country mired in economic woes threatening its corporate existence if he’s not assuming the job prepared to address these problems headlong.

Since the inauguration of the Fourth Republic in 1999, the forthcoming poll slated for February 25, 2023, will be the most challenging in so many ways.

Besides the fact that the three leading presidential candidates – Bola Ahmed Tinubu of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) is Yoruba, Atiku Abubakar of the People’s Democratic Party(PDP) is Hausa/Fulani, while Peter Obi of the Labour Party is of Igbo ethnic stock, tribe, and religion after all, may not be the deciding factors in who wins at the poll.

Nigeria, the once giant of Africa, is at a tipping point. Almost all the economic indicators are negative. The security of lives and property is at its lowest. Non-state actors are having a field day.

With a more than 33 percent unemployment rate, the national currency severally devalued, the inflationary rate as of the end of January this year put at 21.8% by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), corruption index spiraling with the organized theft of the nation’s major foreign exchange earner – earner crude oil, at an all-time high, the outgoing administration is suffering trust deficit.

National Coordinator of the Human Rights Writers Association (HURIWA), Emmanuel Onwubiko

The picture is grim if one considers the agitation by some ethnic nationalities, such as the outlawed Independent People Of Biafra (IPOB) and Oduduwa Ethnic Nationality Movement pushing for a breakaway as independent states.

Worse still, the insecurity and banditry ravaging Northern parts of the country pose a significant challenge. The porous borders, especially in the northern flank, coupled with climate change and the aftermath of the crisis in Libya, have heightened insecurity in the country. Consequently, the herders/farmers clashes and kidnapping for ransom have made the country a doubtful destination for Foreign Direct Investment (FDI).

The business climate does not favor local investors, either. They are instead migrating offshore to invest, leaving an army of unemployed university graduates to roam the streets in search of non-available jobs.

In November 2022, the Nigerian government announced that 133 million Nigerians out of an estimated population of 211 million are living in multidimensional poverty. The #EndSars protest of October 2020, which was triggered by Police brutality of the civilian populace, even though it was a non-partisan protest, reawakened youth consciousness in the polity.

Its organization and execution of the goals, especially in mobilizing youths across most parts of the country, indicated that if mobilized under a political platform, these youths can play a determining role in political leadership.

Indeed, out of the 93.5 million registered voters by the Electoral Commission, the youth demography is about 70 percent. The implication of this demographic dominance is that votes cast by youths could largely decide the outcome of the February 25 presidential poll.

Executive Director of the Civil Society Legislative Advocacy Centre (CISLAC) and Head of Transparency International (Nigeria), Auwal Ibrahim Musa

Per the Electoral Act 2022, the three leading presidential candidates have been on roadshows, traversing the 36 states of the Federation and the Federal Capital Territory, Abuja, wooing voters.

Remarkably, the ordinarily dominant campaign issues of religion and tribe have largely been relegated to the background, with the twin issues of economy and insecurity taking center stage.

The nation’s economy is in a parlous state, with insecurity ravaging most parts of the country.

Corrupt practices are mutating in all the subsectors of the economy, while the unemployment rate is at an all-time high.

National Coordinator of the Human Rights Writers Association (HURIWA), Emmanuel Onwubiko, warns that voters should not be carried away by soapbox promises by these candidates. Instead, he advises that voters be guided by their antecedents concerning the country’s socioeconomic problems.

“I think what Nigerians need to look at before making their choices is the antecedents of the candidates vis-à-vis the socioeconomic reality on the ground and the prospect of proffering solutions whether in the short- or long-term. These qualities will include accountability, competence, capacity, and capability to accomplish what they promise.”

The Executive Director of the Civil Society Legislative Advocacy Centre (CISLAC) and Head of Transparency International (Nigeria), Auwal Ibrahim Musa, fears that the electorate is not presented with various genuine choices given the processes that threw up some of these candidates.

Nonetheless, Musa challenges the electorates to vote for “a candidate who possesses the capacity and capability to pull the country from the brink.

“It’s important that Nigerians do not elect a person who’ll mortgage their future, loot our common patrimony and trample on the Rule of Law. It’s instructive that they do not vote for a person with liability, so the International community will not laugh at us. Nigeria is a key player in the comity of nations, and it will be pleasing if she gets the right leadership.”

Whether this poll is decided on the first ballot or runs into a run-off, besides being a referendum on the ruling All Progressive Congress, whoever wins will inherit a prostrate country that needs quick fixes to retain its corporate existence.

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A farmer in Nkayi, Zimbabwe, looks at an empty granary following a poor rainy season. Africa is experiencing massive impacts due to climate change. Credit Busani Bafana/IPS

By Busani Bafana
Bulawayo, Nov 7 2022 (IPS)

Africa is counting on COP27 to deliver it from climate change. But will it?

Global leaders from more than 125 countries gather in the resort city of Sharm El Sheikh, Egypt, for the 27th meeting of the Conference of Parties (COP) to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), from November 6-18, 2022. The UNFCCC is a global treaty mandating signatories to prevent “dangerous human-induced interference with the climate system by stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations”.

The Convention puts the responsibility of cutting dangerous carbon emissions on the shoulders of developed countries. The major carbon emission emitters are China, the European Union, the United States, Australia, Japan, India, and Russia.

Africa contributes 3.8 percent of the world’s emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) from fossil fuels and industry. However, it is experiencing significant impacts from climate change.

From Angola to Zimbabwe, cyclones, floods, high temperatures, and droughts are killing and displacing millions of Africa as climate change upends a continent unable to cope with its devastating impacts.

Dubbed the ‘African COP’, COP27 convenes in a changed world experiencing a combination of economic and political crises, including food and fuel crises. There are mixed expectations on how to save the world from a fiery Armageddon as climate change rises. For Africa, more is expected from COP27 than at any other time.

The money and adaptation COP

The African Group of Negotiators (AGN) says Africa is expecting to see the implementation of commitments made at COP26 for advancing the implementation of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and addressing the adverse climate change.

“African countries have committed the most ambitious NDCs under the Paris Agreement now the priority should be how to implement these targets. And for these, developed countries should deliver on their climate finance pledges,” Selam Kidane Abebe, Legal Advisor to the AGN, explained.

Abebe contended that the special needs and special circumstances of Africa are a priority for the AGN, as the recognition was reflected under the UNFCCC decisions. Such recognition is also important as Africa contributes less of the total historical and current emissions, and climate change is impacting Africa’s development trajectory, so even if African countries have strong development plans, their trajectory is going to be impacted by the adverse impacts of climate change,” she said, noting that African countries were investing up to 9% of the GDP on adaptation, money that should be invested in development sectors.

In 2009, developed countries committed to giving $100 billion annually until 2020 to help developing countries reduce emissions and cope with climate change. The money never came, and this target has been moved to 2023. Will it ever arrive?

“We hope so because it is the responsibility of developed countries to come forward with it,” Ambassador Wael Aboulmagd, Special Advisor to the COP27 President, told a media briefing in the buildup to COP27 last week.

“In all reality $100 billion is not going to solve the problem; it is not even close to addressing a fraction of the climate needs… the numbers are in trillions. The overall financial landscape needs to be revisited,” Aboulmagd noted, convinced that developed countries must be nudged to find a workable solution in climate finance.

Loss and damage

Finance is at the heart of the COP27 negotiations. Africa is anxious for a solution to the issue of loss and damage and is pushing for finance to address loss and damage as a result of global warming.

At COP27, the argument is that developed countries largely responsible for climate change should pay for the loss of life and damage to property and infrastructure, not to mention economic and cultural losses endured by developing countries that do not have the means to deal with the impacts of climate change.

An argument has been toyed with is that why not allow African countries to raise their emissions levels and develop their economies as developed countries did in industrializing? In Egypt, Africa is hoping to get commitments towards a specific loss and damage facility. Developed countries are reluctant to pick up the tab.

While countries have strengthened their commitments to tackle the climate crisis, climate change is not letting up. Floods in Nigeria,  Pakistan, and South Africa, droughts in Kenya and Somalia, and food crises in the Horn of Africa have led to massive deaths and huge damage to homes and infrastructure that cannot be recovered. Who will pay for the climate damage?

“COP27 must provide a clear and time-bound roadmap on closing the finance gap for addressing loss and damage, ” UN Secretary-General, Antonio Guterres, said last week at the launch of the UNEP Adaptation Gap Report. He argued that: “This will be a central litmus test for success at COP27”.

Climate change is hitting Africa hard, and extreme weather could cost the continent $50 billion annually by 2050, according to the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO). Human activities, largely the burning of fossil fuels like coal, gas, and oil, have released emissions that are causing global warming.

According to scientists at the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), life would be threatened should global temperatures rise beyond 1.8C. The Paris Agreement pledges have meant to limit global temperature rises to 1.5C.

The COP Presidency is convinced a balanced approach that meets various interests is needed. Questions abound on what should be the arrangement for loss and damage,  what kind of funding entity will be there, and who shoulders liability and compensation.

“As the COP27 Presidency, we are impartial and want all parties to be on the same page to agree and address all these issues. I  think we have a good chance of doing that at this COP,” he said, expressing optimism that loss and damage will be on the agenda.

Hot energy finance

Despite some countries developing new and revising their NDCs, to raise their emission reduction targets in line with the Paris Agreement, switching to clean energy and phasing out coal has been slow. Rising fuel prices as a result of the Ukraine war have flipped the script. Some developed countries are increasing subsidies for fossil fuels, while others have fired up coal plants and natural gas lines to fill the energy gap. Even China has recently approved new coal mines.

But should Africa – yearning to boost industrialization – abandon fossil fuel dependence and join the race for renewables?

“The speed of this energy transition should not be the same for every country around the world, many African countries are languishing in extreme poverty, and they make the case that if we are being told to keep that resource underground for the global good then the international community has to come up with a package to allow us otherwise to eliminate poverty and pursue our sustainable development goals,” opined Aboulmagd.

He said while there is a global case for emissions reduction targets and transition to renewables, developing countries cannot just be told to quit fossil fuels without financial support to go green. A tailored approach for every country, depending on its circumstances, is called for.

“It is essentially telling people to stop having energy; by the way, Sub-Saharan Africa has less than 20 percent access to energy in their entire population. We need to make sure that when we make a demand of a country it is a reasonable one that they can reasonably be expected to do without almost devastating their development objectives and poverty reduction elimination objective,” he urged.

Time for talking is over; action now

A UN report released last week found that the world is off track in meeting the Paris Agreement goal of limiting global temperatures below 1.5°C by the end of the century.  The Emissions Gap Report 2022 warns that the window is closing and that the world must cut carbon emissions by 45 percent to avoid global catastrophe because governments have failed to effect adequate cuts as pledged since COP26 in Glasgow.

The report finds that, despite a decision by all countries at the 2021 climate summit in Glasgow, UK (COP26) to strengthen Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), action has been poor and ambition low that the world could be facing a temperature rise of above the Paris Agreement goal of well below 2°C. The report shows that current policies alone will lead to a 2.8°C temperature rise highlighting the gap between actions and promises.

“Climate adaptation may not seem like a priority right now,” says Inger Andersen, United Nations Environment Programme, Executive Director, opined. “Even if all commitments are implemented immediately, the reality is that climate change is going to be with us decades into the future. And the poorest keep paying the price for our inaction. It is, therefore, imperative that we put time, effort, resources, and planning into adaptation action.”

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