Senior militia commander Ahmed Mohamed Islam, better known as Sheikh Madobe, declared himself president of a self-declared autonomous state known as Jubaland. Credit: Abdurrahman Warsameh /IPS

By Abdurrahman Warsameh
MOGADISHU, May 31 2013 (IPS)

Attempts by clan elders and militia commanders in southern Somalia to form an autonomous state, without the consent of the central government but with the apparent backing of foreign countries, remains a dangerous, destabilising element in the region, say analysts.

“Jubaland has all the dangerous elements necessary to kick the stabilisation plan of the liberated territories down like a sand castle,” Abukar Arman, a former diplomat and widely-published political analyst, told IPS. He was speaking of towns and regions in this Horn of African nation that were recently liberated from Al-Shabaab control by regional troops.

On May 15, the senior militia commander Ahmed Mohamed Islam, better known as Sheikh Madobe, declared himself president of a self-declared autonomous state known as Jubaland, which comprises the Lower and Middle Juba provinces as well as the Gedo region. The latter borders Kenya.

Islam is said to have close ties with Kenyan forces stationed in the key port city of Kismayo, which is the commercial capital of Jubaland.

Two more local warlords – Barre Hiiraale and Omar Burale Ahmed – were also named as presidents of Jubaland by their respective clan-based supporters.

The Somali government refused to recognise any of the “presidents”.

Somalia is still recovering from almost two decades of war, and large parts of the country were once under siege by the Islamist rebel group Al-Shabaab. However, with the help of regional forces, the Somali government was able to recapture some key points in the country in 2012.

On May 24, in an effort to defuse the brewing tension between the Somali federal government and authorities in Jubaland, the regional Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) urged the Somali government to convene a reconciliation conference in Mogadishu. IGAD recommended that the Somali government form an interim administration for the region.

The move comes after a mission sent by IGAD – which comprises eight Horn of Africa countries – reported its findings to a meeting of the bloc’s heads of states and governments in Addis Ababa. The regional grouping has been overseeing the situation in southern Somalia since Kenyan troops, who are part of the African Union Mission in Somalia, ousted Al-Shabaab from the region in 2012.

Since then, efforts by militia leaders allied with Kenya have been underway to form the autonomous administration of Jubaland.

Arman said that Somalia was faced with “armed militias, clan lords and foreign (intruders with) competing interests,” as well as an ambiguous constitution that did not clearly specify how federal states would be formed and that deferred some of the key issues.

The Somali government has voiced its discontent about the formation of any administration in the area from the outset, and described the process as “unconstitutional”, stating that it would create tribal divisions.

Abdirashid Hashi, deputy director of the Mogadishu-based Heritage Institute for Policy Studies, an independent think-tank, disagrees with Arman about the position of the constitution. He said that the constitution is “very clear” on the formation of federal Somali states.

“It’s the politicking, obfuscation and doubletalk of politicians that creates and fuels the ongoing drama,” Hashi told IPS in Mogadishu.

With regard to how federal states will be formed, Article 49 of the Provisional National Constitution (PNC) stipulates that “the number and boundaries of the regional states shall be determined by parliament.”

However, before determining the number and boundaries of the federal member states, parliament is required to nominate a national commission tasked with studying the issue. According to the PNC, the commission has to submit a report of its findings and recommendations.

But since the constitution was endorsed almost a year ago, no such national commission has been formed.

Article 49 (6) of the PNC seems to further complicate matters, as it states that “based on a voluntary decision, two or more regions may merge to form a federal member state.”  This is where the bone of contention lies.

It appears that, on one hand, the constitution gives the authority to form autonomous states to the 18 regions. But on the other hand, it calls on parliament to determine the number and boundaries of autonomous states the country will have.

Mohamod Hubey, a constitutional lawyer in Mogadishu, said the constitution is ambiguous regarding the sensitive issue of federalism in Somalia, but adds that the differences can be overcome if parties are willing to cooperate.

“The issue of federalism is a sensitive one as it is not clear-cut in the constitution which region will form a state with which, and clan balance in each region is not uniform, but all these can be resolved if there is will on the part of those concerned,” Hubey told IPS.

The perception that foreign involvement is complicating the Jubaland issue is widespread.

“Kenya for a while wanted to establish in southern Somalia a buffer zone administrated by friendly locals. Hence its support for the creation of Jubaland,” Hubey said.

Kenya has repeatedly dismissed these claims as “baseless and unfounded” and says that its troops are in Somalia to enhance stability in the region.

Nonetheless, many Somalis see Kenyan involvement in their country as being beyond security concerns.

The southern part of Somalia is strategic, rich in resources – particularly marine resources – and agriculture. It is also where the port city of Kismayo, the third-largest city in Somalia, and a potential commercial hub, is located, said Hashi

He added that many interpret “Kenya’s bellicose posturing on the Jubaland issue” as having to do with the oil deposits around the Somali coast. In 2012 there was controversy and some tension between the two nations when Kenya allegedly awarded exploration contracts in contested waters.

“Some even go as far as to claiming that there are concerted international schemes aimed at swindling Somalia out of its territorial waters and the oil under it,” Hashi told IPS.

Somali government soldiers patrol a street in the newly-seized southern town of Wanla Weyne on Oct. 12, 2012. Credit: Abdurrahman Warsameh/IPS

By Abdurrahman Warsameh
MOGADISHU, Oct 19 2012 (IPS)

A Kenyan military advance into Somali territory to push back Islamic militants has had some measured military success – but is not without controversy.

The capture of the Islamist-controlled southern Somali port city of Kismayo by Kenyan troops and allied forces in late September had been in the making for almost a year since the launch of operation Linda Nchi (Protect the Country) by Kenya.

Hundreds of Kenyan army regulars supported by a local clan militia known as the Ras Kamboni Brigade from southern Somalia and northeastern Kenya joined forces to overrun the front defences of the Al Shabaab militants, following months of slow progress after the Kenyan forces crossed the border between the two countries in October 2011.

Kenya’s Linda Nchi intervention in Somalia has been riddled with controversy since it was launched on Oct. 16, 2011. The stated aim of Kenya’s entry into this war-ravaged Horn of Africa country was the pursuit of Al-Shabaab militants accused of creating insecurity across the border in Kenya.

The radical Islamist group is alleged to be behind the kidnapping of foreign aid workers and tourists and a number of bomb attacks in border areas.

Kenya has reportedly been pushing for the region in southern Somalia known as Azania or Jubaland – where Kismayo is the main city – to be given the status of an autonomous state, to serve as a buffer zone between Kenya and the chaos in Somalia.

The plan is to install an administration in cooperation with a local clan that inhabits both the northeastern Kenyan border regions and Somalia’s southern provinces, with the exclusion or minor participation of other clans who form the majority of the provinces’ residents.

Hassan Mudei, deputy head of the Al Shahid Centre for Research and Media Studies in Mogadishu, says he believes the Kenyan project could fail if local sensitivities are not taken into consideration.

“It will all depend on how local sensitivities and clan differences among the region’s inhabitants are acknowledged and respected. But if the Kenyan troops are seen as occupying forces, I believe they will never win the confidence of the local people, and the project would be doomed,” Mudei told IPS in Mogadishu.

He said that Kenya and the other powers-that-be in the area should give local residents a free hand to work out a formula for sharing power, instead of letting one clan allied with them to try to dominate Jubaland – a move the Somali analyst contended would backfire.

The Somali government, which has small numbers of troops trained by Kenyan forces in the southern regions along the border, has repeatedly voiced its opposition to the Jubaland project, saying it has a sovereign right to decide on the governance of the resource-rich provinces of the south.

Kenya is currently sponsoring talks in Nairobi with leaders of a pro-Kenyan militia and Jubaland. Kenya says the negotiations are aimed at forming an administration for the region, but the Somali government has been sidelined because of its disapproval of the Kenyan initiative.

“We have repeatedly expressed our displeasure at the Kenyan-led political process for the southern regions of Somalia that is now going on in Nairobi,” Ahmed Jama, a member of Somalia’s parliament, told IPS in Mogadishu.

“Definitely we welcome Kenya’s role in helping the Somali National Army (SNA) liberate the country from militant forces, but for the political issues regarding Kismayo, that is only for the Somali government to deal with – and that is not what we are seeing now,” he said.

But Kenyan Defence Forces (KDF) spokesman Major Emanuel Chirchir dismissed claims that the military are helping to prop up an autonomous statelet in Jubaland as “baseless and unfounded.”

Chirchir told IPS that the KDF’s aim under the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) is simply to enhance stability in the region, and that it does not have a political or occupation agenda.

“The allegations are just rumours,” said Chirchir. “Our mandate under AMISOM is clear, and this is bringing about peace and normalcy in Somalia and not to divide the Somali people along clan lines.”

Chirchir added that after the KDF’s mandate is concluded, it will be up to Somalis themselves, with the help of regional bodies, including the African Union and the Inter Governmental Authority on Development (IGAD), to chart the way forward on how to govern themselves.

He added, however, that the KDF would strive to bring stability to the Horn of Africa nation, “whatever means it would take.”

The coastal city of Kismayo has been under the control of various groups since the fall of the late Somali ruler Mohamed Siyad Barre in 1991, as alliances between different clans have changed.

Kismayo, which has been under al Shabaab control for the past five years, has the biggest port and airport of all the southern Somalia provinces. It also has the most livestock and the largest amount of arable land in this country.

“This is in essence a struggle for the resources of the region, and after a single clan failed to establish its authority over others, some have gotten the idea of using foreign countries in alliances to impose themselves over others,” Yasin Elmi, a Somali political scientist, told IPS.

“That is what is happening now with the Kenyan intervention, whether Kenya knows this or not. But that arrangement between a foreign country and a local clan is likely to worsen the situation and prolong the local people’s suffering,” he added.

Mudei agreed, saying any administration formed to run the province – and the city of Kismayo in particular – that does not come out of a local initiative is likely to be rejected by the residents.

“I believe foreign forces cannot rule the city, nor can any administration formed in Kenya, because there are a multitude of Somali clans living alongside each other in the region,” said Mudei. “Therefore it is necessary for the local people to be given a fair say in running the city, and the whole province in general – otherwise it will be seen as foreign-imposed.”

Mudei told IPS that the African Union peacekeeping forces, which Kenya belatedly joined in July, should be confined to establishing security in the region as stipulated in their mandate, and should leave political issues to the new Somali government, which knows the intricacies of local clan politics much better than foreigners.

*Additional reporting by Brian Ngugi in Nairobi.