The crisis in Ukraine has put Egypt’s wheat supply in jeopardy and could impact millions who rely on subsidised bread. Credit: Abdelfatah Farag/IPS

By Hisham Allam
CAIRO, Mar 3 2022 (IPS)

Egypt is scrambling to find alternate sources of wheat after the Russian invasion of Ukraine has put supply to the country in jeopardy. This is especially urgent because the price of bread in Egypt has in the past sparked protests in the country.

Russia and Ukraine are key players in the global grain market, with their wheat exports accounting for 23% of international trade in 2021-22, according to the US Department of Agriculture.

Egypt, Lebanon, and Libya are among the MENA region’s top wheat importers from Ukraine.

In 2021, Egypt imported 6.1 million tonnes of wheat; 4.2 million came from Russia, worth $1.2 billion, representing 69.4% of total Egyptian wheat imports. Imports from Ukraine amounted to 651,400 tonnes, worth $649.4 million, accounting for 10.7% of total imports.

Over the last 50 years, the price of bread has been a politically controversial topic in Egypt, triggering various protests. A subsidised flat loaf costs 0.05 Egyptian pounds, less than one US cent.

Naguib Sawiris, the Egyptian tycoon, appealed to Egypt’s Minister of Supply on February 22 to acquire and store large quantities of wheat.

“We must purchase and stockpile wheat as quickly as possible before the Ukraine-Russia war breaks out, “Sawiris Tweeted.

Mohamed Elhady, who runs a family-owned bakery at Menoufia Governorate, 80 km north Cairo, is deeply concerned about the business he has been running for 20 years.

“The government-subsidised bread diminishes the bakery’s profit margin since we are required to sell a loaf of bread at the government-set price. But we get the cost difference through banks after calculating the number of loaves produced by each bakery using a smart ration card system,” Elhady told IPS.

“Some bakeries gather cards from ordinary residents and report fictitious sales to gain the value of subsidised bread for themselves, increasing their earnings considerably while reselling raw wheat on the informal market,” he explains.

In August 2021, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi said it was time to increase the country’s subsidised bread price, revisiting the issue for the first time since 1977, when then-president Anwar Sadat reversed a price rise in the face of riots.

“It is time for the five-piece loaf to increase in price,” Sisi said.

Elhady believes that the government will turn the president’s words into action soon, expecting that the new increase in subsidised bread will take place by April, the anticipated time for receiving wheat from the new suppliers. This will decrease daily production rates and, therefore, his profits.

“Once the wheat prices increase, the government will reduce the number of subsidised loaves from five a day to three or increase the price of the 5-piaster loaf,” Elhady says.

The president is also expected to exclude more citizens from the subsidy programme covering more than 60 million Egyptians.

“People will have to choose; to eat less or to pay more,” Elhady adds.

Egypt’s main state buying agency, the General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC), has issued a second international wheat tender to import wheat from April 13 to 26. The tender was issued 48 hours after it was cancelled because it only received a single offer of French wheat. A least two offers are required before a purchase can go ahead.

The Egyptian GASC set the end of February as a deadline to receive offers for the new tender. In addition to Russia and Ukraine, the GASC sought bids from the United States, Canada, France, Bulgaria, Australia, Poland, Germany, the United Kingdom, Romania, Serbia, Hungary, Paraguay, and Kazakhstan. The delivery needs to take place before April 1, 2022.

Despite the ongoing Russian-Ukrainian military escalation, an Egyptian ship carrying 60 tons of Ukrainian wheat has left the Ukrainian ports and is en route to Egypt, a grain consultant at the Ministry of Supply, Salah Hamza, told IPS.

“This shipment was contracted with Ukraine for $361 per ton in an international tender in December 2021. The consignment is part of a 300 000-ton wheat shipment that will arrive by March 2022.”

“Egypt produces 275 million loaves of bread per day, consumes 900,000 tonnes of wheat per month, and the strategic stock is enough for the next five months, in addition to 4 million tons expected from the domestic harvest by mid-April, “Hamza adds.

Egypt has a strategic reserve of wheat, enough to cover the local market’s needs for nine months, the Cabinet’s spokesman, Nader Saad said.

The strategic wheat stock is approximately five million tonnes, according to Saad, and will be augmented when the local wheat harvest season begins on April 15.

In February of this year, the price of an ardeb of wheat climbed by 65 percent compared with February of last year.

The US Foreign Agricultural Service expected Egypt’s wheat consumption in 2021-22 would exceed 21.3 million tonnes, up about 2.4 % from 2020-21.

IPS UN Bureau Report

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Fostina Kachimera in her maize garden that she planted under irrigation. Since she has started to use irrigation she no longer lives in fear of dry spells. Credit: Esmie Komwa Eneya/IPS

By Esmie Komwa Eneya
BLANTYRE, MALAWI, Feb 9 2022 (IPS)

In the past, the people of Sande Village in Chikwawa district, Malawi, would go to bed with empty stomachs even when the rest of the country harvested bumper yields.

This is because the area in southern Malawi is prone to both floods and drought – making rain-fed agriculture difficult.

One woman farmer, Fostina Kachimera, said that after practising rain-fed agriculture over several years without results, she stopped farming and was just sitting idle because agriculture was her only option for employment.

“When we try to do rain-fed agriculture is either the crops will be swept away by floods or burnt by drought before they even start to produce fruits,” she said.

Chikwawa and Nsanje districts are situated in the Shire River valley.

According to Shire Valley Agriculture Development Division (Shivadd) programme manager Francis Mlewah, the valley has 313 215 hectares of land, but almost half experiences prolonged dry spells.

“In addition to that, its annual rainfall falls between 400 to 1000 mm, and this is below the average annual rainfall needed by most of the crops grown in the country,”  Mlewah says, explaining that optimal rainfall was above 1 200mm.

Then there is flooding.

“One-third of the land is situated along the country’s biggest river, and indeed farmers who cultivate their crops in these areas face floods almost every year,” he explained.

Now, this has become a song of the past because Kachimera and her fellow 259 farmers can now harvest three crops a year through irrigation. This has enabled them to produce enough food for the year and a surplus to sell.

All the farmers had also managed to build substantial houses which withstand floods – unlike in the past when floods often damaged their homes.

The Evangelical Association of Malawi came to their rescue in 2007 and introduced irrigation farming.

“We started as a club, but by 2010 we transformed into a scheme known as Sande.

“When we were starting, we were using water canes to irrigate our crops, but right now we are using water pumps which we purchased through the profits from irrigation farming, and almost every one of us has managed to buy one,” said the scheme’s chairperson Samuel Wise.

Apart from growing maize, the country’s staple food, Wise explained that the system produces different crops such as legumes, tubers, and vegetables.

According to him, the idea is to have diverse foods available to combat malnutrition and fetch reasonable prices on the market.

Once the irrigation started, the families started to live healthy lives.

They no longer lack necessities such as clothes, soap and can pay school fees for their children.

“In the past, transportation was so difficult for us since we could not afford even the cheapest bicycle, but now we have motorbikes that we bought with the farm proceeds,” he said.

Malawi’s Deputy Agriculture Minister Agnes Nkusankhoma recently visited the scheme and praised it.

“Finding the big area like this green is rare especially considering that this is the dry season, and these farmers made this place look like we are in the rainy season.”

Nkusankhoma encouraged them to register in the livestock subsidy program to add to what they are already doing because livestock production does well in these districts.

While the farmers relish their success, they lament the rising fuel prices. The water pumps are reliant on fuel – shrinking their profits.

The community will benefit from the Shire Valley Transformation Programme – a government-led project financed by World Bank, the African Development Bank, and the Global Environment Facility.

According to the project’s coordinator, Stanly Chakhumbira, the project put 43 370 hectares under irrigation using gravity to divert water from the river to the canals. Once this is completed, farmers will no longer need to rely on fuel.

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Zimbabwe’s smallholder farmers are reliant on rain, which impacts the country’s food security efforts. Credit: Ignatius Banda/IPS

By Ignatius Banda
Bulawayo, ZIMBABWE , Feb 1 2022 (IPS)

On January 10, the Zimbabwe Republic Police (ZRP) arrested three men found with fertilizer worth about 130,000 US dollars.

The “loot” was identified as part of inputs provided by the government to smallholder farmers in the country’s efforts to boost food security.

The case was one of many that exposed the dilemma of the country’s food security efforts. The multi-million dollar government-financed scheme that provides seeds and fertilizer to smallholder farmers has fallen short in aiding food production.

The abuse of farming inputs has been a thorn on the government’s side, with officials seeing it as deliberate sabotage of the country’s ambitions to feed itself. At the same time, analysts contend that such government schemes are open to abuse by well-connected individuals.

In recent years, Zimbabwe has redoubled its efforts to boost the production of the staple maize, with the government last year aiming to provide 1,8 million rural households with maize seed and fertilizer.

The bulk of the southern African country’s maize production – up to 70 percent – comes from rural smallholder farmers, according to the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO), but it is also here where widespread poverty is rife, with the World Bank noting that almost 8 million people in Zimbabwe earn under USD1 per day.

Such conditions, analysts note, have led to the diversion of farming inputs for reselling, effectively slowing the country’s efforts to feed itself.

During the 2020-21 season, Zimbabwe produced 2.7 million tonnes of maize, triple the previous year thanks to above-normal rains, yet concerns remain about maintaining production levels.

“As the painful experience of the past 20 years since the land reform has shown so clearly, such gains are not necessarily sustained,” said Ian Scoones, an academic and researcher at the University of Sussex’s Institute of Development Studies. He has written widely about agriculture in Zimbabwe.

This 2021-22 season, climate uncertainty has seen many farmers delaying planting as they keep waiting for the rain. The agriculture ministry reported early January that the country had missed its target of 2 million hectares of maize.

According to the ministry, only about 1 million hectares had been planted at the beginning of the year. Under the Agriculture and Food System Transformation Strategy, Zimbabwe targets 8 billion US dollars for agriculture production by 2025.

Grain production has fluctuated in the past two decades. For example, during the 2001 cropping season, about 1.5 million hectares were planted, which represented a 15 percent drop from the previous season according to FAO figures.

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) noted that Zimbabwe’s 2021-22 maize harvest, which stood at 2.7 million tonnes, was the highest since the 1984-5 season.

These fluctuations highlight the country’s struggle to feed itself.

The USDA says the bumper harvest was due to “favourable weather conditions,” exposing the limits of government maize and seed subsidies in the largely rain-fed sector.

Analysts say it will take more for the country to realize its goals beyond providing inputs to farmers amid other challenges such as climate uncertainty.

“Government will need to provide incentives, such as food crop production quotas, to large scale farmers who tend to specialize on non-food cash crops, which worsens the food security situation,” said Stanley Mbuka, an analyst at the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU).

“An unstable currency also makes it hard for smallholder farmers to cushion themselves as they sell to the grain marketing board in the local currency, which loses value very quickly,” Mbuka told IPS.

Researchers have also noted that other innovations to encourage farmers to adopt new methods to boost food production, despite showing promise, have been abandoned for, among other reasons, being too labour intensive.

Much of rural agriculture in Zimbabwe is not mechanized and relies on rainwater.

Added to this is a combination of longer-term underlying factors, including macroeconomic challenges, increased occurrence of climatic shocks, COVID-19 pandemic, and the cumulative effects of two consecutive years of drought, says the World Food Programme (WFP).

“To break the cycle of relapses into food crises, stakeholders are increasingly aware that more investments are needed in resilience-building and early warning,” said Maria Gallar, WFP-Zimbabwe spokesperson.

“The chances that smallholder farmers fall into food insecurity repeatedly decrease if they have access to productive assets such as dams,” Gallar told IPS by email.

Despite last year’s above-average maize harvest, the WFP says the latest figures show that more than 5 million people are estimated to be food insecure. This includes 42 percent of the urban population – about 2.4 million people – where the government has promoted urban farming.

“Sustainable change, after so many years of setbacks, will require continued efforts and time,” Gallar said.

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Supermarkets stock both millet and sorghum products, but these are often ignored. Now research has shown the crops have health benefits and are climate resilient. Credit: Ignatius Banda/IPS

By Ignatius Banda
Bulawayo, ZIMBABWE , Dec 1 2021 (IPS)

Millet could be Africa’s silver bullet for combating anaemia – and apart from health benefits, it is climate-resilient.

Research led by the International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics (ICRISAT) says millet, long resisted by some of Africa’s smallholders, effectively combating anaemia.

Iron deficiency affects more than 1.7 billion people globally, according to the World Health Organization. Undernutrition among children has led to stunted growth and anaemia, says the WHO. The ICRISAT study authored in collaboration with other research organisations notes that governments need to bring “millets into the mainstream” if iron deficiency is adequately addressed globally.

“Although the amount of iron provided depends on the millet variety and its form of processing, the research clearly shows that millets can play a promising role in preventing and reducing high levels of iron deficiency anaemia,” said Anitha Seetha, the study’s lead author and ICRISAT senior nutritionist.

The grain has another significant benefit – and could assist developing countries bearing the brunt of climate uncertainty and devastating drought cycles. The grain is climate-resilient and could help communities saddled with health emergencies as a result of drought. The study’s findings suggest interventions that could ease pressure on already burdened public health services.

“Now that there is strong evidence of the value of millets in reducing or preventing iron deficiency anaemia, it is recommended that one major research study be undertaken on anaemia covering all the different types of millet, common varieties and all major forms of processing and cooking,” says Professor Ian Givens, a co-author of the study and Director at University of Reading’s Institute of Food, Nutrition and Health (IFNH) in the UK.

“This will provide the detail required for designing interventions needed to have a major impact on reducing anaemia globally,” he said.

For countries like Zimbabwe, where small grains have long been touted as the answer to food insecurity and nutrition concerns, the ICRISAT study’s findings could influence smallholders, such as Samukele Jamela. She farms in the arid region of Filabusi, about 120km southeast of Bulawayo.

Jamela is one of many farmers who have routinely faced empty silos because of poor rains but still insists on planting rain-fed maize (corn).

“We plant maize here. That’s what we have always done. Very few people want to eat millet or sorghum. Even the children don’t like it,” she said, explaining why her community shuns growing small grains.

The country’s agriculture ministry is aware of this sentiment.

In 2010, Zimbabwe partnered with the Food and Agriculture Organisation to promote the production, processing and marketing of small grains such as millet and sorghum, and a decade later, agriculture officials are still trying to convince smallholders to grow climate-resilient small grains.

The United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) noted in a 2018 report titled “Barrier analysis of small grains value chain in Zimbabwe” that the country has experienced a decline in the production of small grains since the 1990s, with maize remaining the favoured crop despite successive crop failure due to poor rains.

As part of efforts to assist the country in turning the food insecurity curve, the International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD) announced a USD67 million investment programme aimed at Zimbabwe’s smallholder farmers this November.

“Depending on the geographical area, crops such as millet in drier areas will be supported,” Jaan Keitaanranta, IFAD Eswatini and Zimbabwe country director, told IPS.

The support came just as the UN agency warned last month that African countries would see a drop in the yields of staple crops such as maize owing to rising temperatures brought by climate change.

Titled What Can Smallholder Farmers Grow in a Warmer World? the report appeals to African countries to reduce their reliance on maize in favour of small grains, noting that by 2050, maize production could drop by 77 percent in some countries bearing the brunt of climate change.

“Millets are not only healthy but target some of our biggest needs, making them a powerful solution for our diets,” said Joanna Kane-Potaka, a former ICRISAT Assistant Director-General. She is a co-author of the study and now serves as Executive Director of the Smart Food initiative.

However, local researchers say the labour-intensive nature of small grains is one of many reasons why smallholders continue shunning sorghum and millet.

“Small grains face a major challenge of low yield per hectare compared to maize; hence most farmers prefer to grow maize regardless of climate concerns,” said Keith Phiri, a senior lecturer at Lupane State University’s Department of Development Studies.

Phiri, who has led research on why smallholders in Zimbabwe’s arid regions shun small grains, said reasons included lack of knowledge of millet which “during weeding time, weeds tend to look exactly like the plant,” while consumer preferences have always favoured maize.

Among other recommendations, Phiri says the government has to shift its policy that has for years promoted maize as a cash crop, sidelining small grains.

“The need for a solution is critical, and therefore bringing millets into mainstream and government programs is highly recommended,” said Jacqueline Hughes, ICRISAT Director-General.

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