Somali Army soldiers patrolling a street in the capital Mogadishu on Feb. 23, 2014. Concern grows as hundreds of soldiers who were fired from the army in a restructuring drive protested against their termination of service. Credit: Ahmed Osman/IPS

By Ahmed Osman
MOGADISHU, Feb 27 2014 (IPS)

Residents of Mogadishu have raised concerns about their safety after the Somali army recently fired hundreds of disgruntled soldiers, many of whom are believed to still be in possession of their arms.

Somali military officials said early in February that 700 army soldiers were “relieved of their duties” following the restructuring of the army to make it a more professional force.

Somali National Army (SNA) chief General Dahir Khalif Elmi said that the sacked military personnel were unfit for service as they include elderly and disabled soldiers but added that they would be taken care of by the government.  “This is without a doubt adding to the insecurity in the city and other places because these soldiers do not have any other source of income and that is unsettling for all of us.” -- Mogadishu resident Hawa Ali

However, shortly after their sacking, hundreds of armed soldiers took to the streets in the Somali capital, Mogadishu, to protest against the decision.

“Releasing an army of 700 soldiers complete with their weapons into the city is not only dangerous to people’s security but outright irresponsible,” Ahmed Ahmed, a Somali lawmaker, told IPS.

Ahmed said that the soldiers could be potential recruits for the radical Islamist group, Al-Shabaab. The sacking of the soldiers comes just as the government and the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) announced that plans were under way to launch a military campaign against the extremist group Al-Shabaab.

Barre Farah, a retired Somali army officer, said that the decision to “retire” the army personnel was necessary to “modernise and professionalise” the Somali army but expressed doubt about the timing of the move.

“One cannot get why the army decided about it at this time and in this manner, which clearly can harm the security and possibly give ammunition to our enemy,” Farah told IPS in Mogadishu.

Farah said that there was a possibility that the sacked soldiers could join the insurgency as a last resort, thus making it difficult to remove Al-Shabaab from its strongholds in central and southern Somalia.

He, however, said he did not believe recent reports that claimed some of the fired soldiers and army officers had already joined the extremist group.

Soon after the soldiers’ dismissal, residents of Mogadishu, who are already weary of the growing insecurity and attacks on the capital, voiced concern that the soldiers could further destabilise the country.

“This is without a doubt adding to the insecurity in the city and other places because these soldiers do not have any other source of income and that is unsettling for all of us,” Mogadishu resident Hawa Ali told IPS.

Somali government soldiers have been accused of setting up illegal checkpoints in and outside Mogadishu and along thoroughfares that connect Mogadishu with south and central Somali in order to extort money from people. Many fear that the fired officers will now start doing the same.

Mohamed Ugaas, a teacher in Mogadishu, said that allowing the soldiers to leave the army with their weapons was a “recipe for disaster”.

The army remains tight-lipped about the weapons and it is not clear why they were allowed to take them home.

However, one sacked army officer, who asked for anonymity for fear of reprisals, said that although most of the soldiers still had their weapons, they are not a threat to the security of Mogadishu.

He added that none of the 700 soldiers have joined the militants and called the reports baseless.

“We are angry about how we were dealt with by the army chief but that has never made any one of us contemplate joining a terrorist group we fought against for years. That is impossible,” the ex-army officer told IPS.

He said he hoped the international community would intervene and help them integrate into civilian life for which they are “not prepared”.

“We need those of us unable to work because of age or disability to be given a decent pension and care. And those willing and able to work need to be retrained to get civilian work or given financial support to start a business,” the former officer said.

However, Somali government military officer, Commander Yasin Jaylani, explained that the sacked soldiers would be taken care of and that new agency would soon be set up to facilitate this.

“You don’t expect the army to simply fire soldiers at random and not have plan to care for them. That is not the case and will never be the case in the future. We are modernising our army to better serve the country,” Jaylani told IPS.

He declined to comment on the allegation that the army did not disarm the fired soldiers saying that will be “looked into”.

Wreckage of one of the suicide car bombs used to attack the presidential palace in Mogadishu, Somalia’s capital on Friday Feb. 21, 2014. Nine militants were killed in the attack. Credit: Ahmed Osman/IPS

By Ahmed Osman
MOGADISHU, Feb 24 2014 (IPS)

As the Somali government plans to launch a new military campaign to wipe out the Islamic extremist group, Al-Shabaab, from its strongholds in this Horn of Africa nation, experts say that its Somalia’s innocent who live in areas controlled by the group who will suffer the most.

On Friday, Feb. 21, the Al-Qaeda-linked Al-Shabaab launched an unprecedented and brazen attack on the presidential palace in the capital Mogadishu in which 12 people, including nine militants from the extremist group, died. “We expect insurgent activities in the short term even if the group is defeated militarily ... But I think Al-Shabaab can be eradicated from the region." -- Mohamed Muse, military analyst

Shortly after, the government and the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) announced that plans were under way to launch a military campaign against the extremist fighters.

Senior Somali government military commander Ise Guled told IPS in Mogadishu on Monday, Feb. 24 that preparations for “the final onslaught” against the radical fighters’ strongholds in south and central Somalia were “in their final stages”.

“We will launch the offensive in conjunction with our allies against this group and get rid of [this] menace once and for all,” he said. He declined to say when it would commence.

However, Yusuf Alay, an academic in Mogadishu, told IPS that the group’s “oppression” on locals would increase as military pressure on Al-Shabaab mounts.

Al-Shabaab has been ousted from much of southern and central Somalia but the group still controls parts of the country where it imposes strict Islamic Sharia law, and recruits and trains fighters.

Alay expects the group to start imposing stricter curfews and a blanket ban on the use of smartphones in areas under its control. Already Al-Shabaab has forced the biggest telecoms company here to switch off its mobile internet service.

Alay also expects more youths to be indoctrinated into the group’s extremist ideology and forcibly recruited to join.

“The radical group enforces a stricter form of Sharia law, where people are still subjugated to the worst forms of punishments. [It also] levies huge taxes on the people who are already poor, to finance their activities following the loss of key ports in the south,” Alay said.

He added that while people would be negatively affected if the militants resisted and fought against advancing troops, in the long run those who live in “Shabaabistan” (Al-Shabaab territory) would be better off not being under Al-Shabaab rule.

Mohamed Muse, a military analyst in Mogadishu, said the campaign against the extremist group has been in the making for months now but gained new impetus after Al-Shabaab’s deadly attack on the Westgate Mall in the Kenyan capital, Nairobi, last September. At least 72 people were killed when Al-Shabaab militants stormed the mall.

“We know that there has been a clear understanding of the need to finish off Al-Shabaab on the part of the Somali government and AMISOM so that the task of rebuilding the nation can proceed unhindered. So it is just a matter of when such a move [will] materialise,” Muse told IPS in Mogadishu.

Last month, following the United Nations Security Council authorisation of an increase in AMISOM peacekeepers, nearly 4,300 Ethiopian troops were added to the existing force of 17,500.

Matt Bryden, director of Sahan Research, a think tank based in Kenya, said in a new report for the Centre for Strategic and International Studies’ African Programme that Al-Shabaab would likely lose all of the territory under its control in the event of a military offensive.

“As a reinforced AMISOM prepares to resume offensive operations, Al-Shabaab is likely to suffer military reverses – including the loss of its remaining strongholds,” Bryden said in the report.

As Ethiopian troops pour into Somalia’s central and southern regions, Al-Shabaab fighters have fled key strongholds in El Bur, Hudur and Barawe.

Already two towns, Hagar, in southern Somalia and Gandershe, just south of Mogadishu, were recently recaptured in surprise attacks by Somali government forces and AMISOM troops.

Bryden said that the militant group has, for some time, been preparing for an “asymmetrical struggle”, as they anticipate defeat in the face of the offensive. He contends the strategy “would permit Al-Shabaab to survive as a potent force in Somalia and the region.”

“For the near term, Al-Shabaab is not playing to win but to survive, subvert and surprise,” he said.

Muse agreed but said the challenges would be manageable if the political wrangling among Somalis were solved before it became a problem.

“We expect insurgent activities in the short term even if the group is defeated militarily, and that is always the nature of counter-insurgency operations. But I think Al-Shabaab can be eradicated from the region,” said Muse.

Somalis have been unable to use the internet on their mobile phones after Islamist group Al-Shabaab banned the biggest telecom company from providing the service to its customers. Credit: Ahmed Osman/IPS

By Ahmed Osman
MOGADISHU, Feb 16 2014 (IPS)

Osman Ali, the owner of an electronics shop in Somalia’s capital, Mogadishu, has been hard-hit since Al-Shabaab forced the biggest telecoms company to switch off its mobile internet service in this Horn of Africa nation.

“I don’t understand why the government has not done anything to deal with the situation. It could at least try and find an alternative for the people. This has thrown the country into darkness. We are left behind,” Ali told IPS from his shop, explaining that his sales had dropped dramatically since the shutdown.

In January, Al-Shabaab issued a 15-day ultimatum for local giant, Hormuud Telecom, to stop providing mobile internet and fibre optic services because it said they were used by Western spy agencies to collect information on Muslims.Hormuud officials said company staff were forced “at gun point” by Al-Shabaab fighters to switch off the mobile internet service.

According to Internet World Stats, more than 125,000 of the country’s 10 million people use the internet in Somalia. Tens of thousands of people who relied on Hormuud’s services have been unable to access the internet on their mobile phones from Feb. 6. However, fixed broadband services are still available.

The Mayor of Mogadishu, Mohamed Nur Tarzan, told the media that Hormuud officials had said company staff were forced “at gunpoint” by Al-Shabaab fighters to switch off the mobile internet service.

Hormuud, which claims to be the market leader in south and central Somalia “with over 60 percent of market share in both mobile and broadband services”, has not officially commented on the ban.

However, a Hormuud official told IPS on the condition of anonymity because he was not authorised to speak to the media, that they had no option but to comply.

“I don’t think we had another alternative … we are just business people and cannot confront an armed group’s orders. We tried our best to convince them [Al-Shabaab] that our services do not harm the public in any way, but that was in vain,” the official said.

The company has switched off the service not only to areas controlled by Al-Shabaab but across the centre of the country and in Mogadishu. However, the ban has not affected the northeastern regions of Puntland and the northwestern province of Somaliland where separate mobile networks operate.

Although officials have condemned the move, the government has faced widespread criticism for its “inaction”.

However, following the news of the group’s ultimatum, in a statement on Jan. 11, the then interior minister Abdikarim Hussein Guled condemned the ban and cautioned companies against cooperating with the militants.

But local social media has been awash with criticism of the government, saying that if it had at least provided enough security to local companies it would have had the authority to order the continuation of their services.

Maryan Ali, a 20-year-old student in Mogadishu has not been able to access the internet on her smartphone for nearly a week now.

“I used to follow news and information about the world with my mobile and communicate with family and friends but that is no more,” she told IPS.

Al-Shabaab said in a statement  that mobile internet services were the cause of air strikes that they said were carried out by “the enemy” in areas under their control and “led to the killing and hunting of Jihadists.”

Mohamed Yusuf, an academic in Mogadishu, said that the extremist group’s actions to ban mobile internet services in southern and central Somalia were triggered by the Edward Snowden revelations of widespread U.S. government surveillance programmes it maintained in and outside the country.

In 2013, Snowden, a former technical contractor for the National Security Agency, released secret documents showing how the U.S. government was tapping global internet and phone systems on a massive scale.

“Al-Shabaab has not hidden the fact that their move was prompted by the Snowden revelations and that they feared they could also be a key target for U.S. government spying,” Yusuf told IPS in Mogadishu.

Yusuf also said that the major reason for the group’s decision was the possibility that mobile internet connections could be used to track the leaders and commanders of Al-Shabaab, which the U.S. government considers a terrorist entity and a legitimate target for its drone attacks.

But Mustaf Jama says his mobile internet connection was his sole source of information for his university studies, but now he is unable to access information online from just anywhere and is forced to use internet cafes.

“It was convenient to use the mobile internet to check facts and information as well as news but that is all gone. We are going back a quarter of a century and are being left behind. We don’t know why we are being punished this way,” Jama told IPS.

Islamic studies curriculum in Somalia’s schools is a radical form of Islam that analysts say is contributing to the growing militancy of the country’s youth. Credit: Ahmed Osman/IPS

By Ahmed Osman
MOGADISHU, Oct 4 2013 (IPS)

Mukhatar Jama has been teaching at a secondary school in Mogadishu for the past decade. Religious education is part and parcel of the curriculum of all schools in Somalia, but he says most parents are unaware of exactly what their children are being taught – a radical form of Islam.

“The Islamic studies curriculum you hear is the pure Wahhabism, exported from Saudi Arabia, that teaches children that all those who are not Wahhabi are non-believers, including the children’s parents, and that it is ok to kill non-Muslims,” Jama told IPS.

While there are no statistics on how many schools there are in Somalia, most here follow the Saudi curriculum, which advocates and inculcates Wahhabism. This is a far more radical interpretation of Islam than the moderate Sufi school that older generation of Somalis follows.

The radicalisation of Somalia’s youth has already started spilling over the war-torn country’s borders to its neighbours, influencing the region’s fragile security situation."Al-Shabaab, which means youth in Arabic, has realised the potential of Somalia’s young and are working to capitalise on it in our schools." -- analyst Omar Yusuf

It has taken root not only in Somalia and Kenya, but in the whole sub-region, Omar Yusuf, an analyst in the Somali capital, Mogadishu, told IPS.

“The event of Westgate is perhaps one of many wake-up calls for governments in the region to tackle the growing radicalisation and the logical next step of deadly militancy in the youth of the region,” Yusuf said.

The Sep. 21 attack on the Westgate Shopping Mall in Nairobi by the Somali Islamist militant group Al-Shabaab left more than 70 dead and dozens injured.

The Al-Qaeda-linked Al-Shabaab had repeatedly vowed to target Kenya after the country’s troops crossed over the border into Somalia in 2011 and ousted the radical group’s fighters from key areas in southern Somalia, including Kismayo.

Al-Shabaab advocates the establishment of an Islamic State not only in Somalia, but in East Africa. It adheres to the fundamentalist Wahhabi school of Islam. The extremist group’s ideology seems to be gaining ground in Somalia due to a number of factors.

“Think about it, schools in Somalia provide Al-Shabaab with the radical ideological teaching for the youth and when they graduate what they just need is to give [them] military training and there you have a qualified Al-Shabaab fighter,” Yusuf said.

Both teachers and parents seem divided over what is being taught at Somali schools, with some accepting it as part of the children’s religious education, and others expressing concern that their children are being indoctrinated to be Wahhabists without their consent.

“I came to know that my son gets indoctrinated with extremist views at school. He had to change schools a number of times but all schools in Mogadishu use the same Wahhabi books that we took from Saudi Arabia. The whole country will covert to Wahhabism in no time,” one parent, who sought anonymity for fear of reprisals, told IPS.

Another parent, Omar Kulmiye, disagreed that his children were being radicalised by this teaching. “I don’t [know] much about religion but I think since they are learning Islam it is ok with me and I have not sensed anything different in my children since they started school five years ago,” he told IPS.

Hussen said three factors have contributed to radicalisation and militancy among Somali youths. Lack of political participation, and of employment and education opportunities draws youth to militant groups, she said.

“The search for a ‘second family’ and a sense of belonging offered by militant groups…has attracted many youths,” Hussen said. “Young recruits are offered a group to belong to, a job with salary as well as marriage – things that are otherwise hard for them to obtain in Somali society.”

The unemployment rate for youth aged 14 to 29 is 67 percent — one of the highest in the world. According to the United Nations Development Programme’s “Somalia Human Development Report 2012”, 70 percent of Somalia’s 10.2 million people are under the age of 30.

The attack on the Westgate Shopping Mall comes as no surprise as Al-Shabaab has been spreading its radicalising tentacles in the region, local security expert Muhumed Abdi told IPS.

“This was a crisis that has been simmering for years because the radical groups have found not only Somalia but neighbouring countries fertile ground to grow and recruit, with governments in the region seemingly unprepared,” Abdi said.

However, the Somali government, along with the U.N. Children’s Fund (UNICEF) and international partners, is currently trying to implement an ambitious initiative to put one million children to school. Through this Go 2 School Initiative the government has also proposed changes to the curriculum in the hope that this will help fight radicalism. According to UNICEF, enrolment rates here are among the lowest in the world with only four out of every 10 children attending school.

But the government faces huge resistance from private school administrators and parents who fear the changes would make education devoid of religious moral teaching for the young.

Islamist groups have condemned the campaign as an attempt by the government to westernise Somali education and sideline religious studies.

Numerous calls by IPS to Somalia’s ministry of education remained unanswered while one official declined to comment on the allegations that schools are used as breeding grounds for militancy in Somalia.

But Hussen said the Somali government recognised that youth are the “future of Somalia” and need empowerment.

“However, the government has not been very forthcoming in the implementation of this … as youth are still very much marginalised from the political arena,” she explained.

Yusuf agreed, but said the approach needs to be far more radical and start with a critical look at the kind of education Somali children receive in school during their formative years.

“There is a need for holistic approach to youth problems in Somalia because Al-Shabaab, which means youth in Arabic, has realised the potential of Somalia’s young and are working to capitalise on it in our schools. We need to change that,” Yusuf said.

Medical officials in Somalia say that the withdrawal of international medical charity Médecins Sans Frontières from the country will have negative impact on lives of hundreds of thousands of people and further complicates the polio outbreak the country is facing. Credit: Ahmed Osman/IPS

By Ahmed Osman
MOGADISHU, Sep 30 2013 (IPS)

Maryan Yusuf, 39, is weak and barely able to speak because of her excruciating pain. A few hours earlier she delivered a baby at Somalia’s Afgooye Hospital, where essential drugs are dwindling at an alarming rate.

“This is my fourth child delivered here. But I cannot get as much care and treatment as I used to. I am in pain now. I don’t know if I will be well again,” Yusuf told IPS as she lay on a hospital bed that had no mattress.

Afgooye Hospital, situated in the agricultural town of Afgooye, 30 km southwest of the Somali capital, Mogadishu, is one of the many health facilities that used to receive support from the international medical charity Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF), or Doctors Without Borders. Because of this support the hospital was able to provide free healthcare to the residents of Afgooye and surrounding areas."We understand the reasons for [the MSF] pullout but that decision...is now causing huge suffering in Somalia.” -- Abdelaziz Qafiifo, Ministry of Human Development and Social Services spokesperson

But it has been almost a month since MSF left Somalia because of security concerns for its staff, and a senior nurse at Afgooye Hospital told IPS that the hospital was running out of basic drugs and vaccines.

The 20-bed Afgooye Hospital has only one doctor and seven nurses, who provide what services they can to the hundreds of patients who come through the doors every week.

“This is the place people who want free healthcare turn to, but since MSF left and no agency has filled its place we cannot support the health needs of the people here and in the town’s periphery,” the senior nurse said.

The international charity had been one of the few providers of essential healthcare here for the last 22 years. Somalia has been through almost 20 years of war, and its citizens are affected by poverty and a lack of essential services.

The current government has had to function with limited financial resources and the continued threat of the extremist Islamist group Al-Shabaab, which has waged a number of recent terrorist attacks on the capital Mogadishu despite being ousted from key cities across this Horn of Africa nation.

In an earlier interview with IPS, presidential spokesperson Abdirahman Omar Osman explained that the government’s monthly “revenue is roughly three million dollars from Mogadishu’s seaport and the airport, and yet the budget we need to execute our daily activities is at least 20 million dollars each month.”

The health centres supported by MSF were provided with various services, including free basic healthcare, malnutrition treatment, surgery, epidemic response, water and relief supplies.

MSF said more than 1,500 staff worked for its medical programmes across Somalia, including in Mogadishu and the two outlying towns of Afgooye and Daynille, as well as eight other towns across the country.

“In 2012 alone, MSF teams provided more than 624,000 medical consultations, admitted 41,100 patients to hospitals, cared for 30,090 malnourished children, vaccinated 58,620 people, and delivered 7,300 babies,” MSF said in August in a statement announcing its decision to leave Somalia. In a statement to IPS, MSF said there is normal traffic of patients at the hospital, with normal levels of care.

But Somali doctors warn that the decision will adversely affect the lives of “hundreds of thousands of people”.

Mohmaoud Yarow, a health officer in Mogadishu, said the impact of the MSF withdrawal was immediate and health centres that had previously received support from the international charity now have hundreds of people in need of care and many lack the drugs with which to treat them.

“I can understand how difficult it has been for MSF to leave Somalia, but the impact the pullout has had on the country’s health sector is enormous … with time this could turn into a deadly health crisis,” Yarow told IPS in Mogadishu.

Local media reported in August that Al-Shabaab fighters seized control of a former MSF-funded hospital in Marere, Middle Jubba Region, along with the medical equipment and drugs.

Medical officials also say that the MSF pullout further complicates the polio outbreak the country is facing as the medical charity had provided essential vaccines against the disease.

Earlier this year, polio was detected in several areas in Somalia, including the eastern region of Puntland as well as southern and central parts of the country. The World Health Organisation has confirmed 101 cases here and a massive vaccination campaign against the viral disease was launched in August.

The Somalia government has said that it was “deeply saddened” by the MSF decision to withdraw and has reiterated its commitment to providing a secure working environment to all aid agencies in the country.

Abdelaziz Qafiifo, spokesperson for Somali Ministry of Human Development and Social Services, which is responsible for the health sector, told IPS: “It is unfortunate that the withdrawal of MSF is having an impact on the lives of the Somali people. We understand the reasons for its pullout but that decision, whatever may have been its justification, is now causing huge suffering in Somalia.”

The Somali government said that the MSF decision has created “a critical vacuum that needs to be filled” and could “lead to a catastrophic humanitarian crisis”, and has urgently called on the international community and donor countries to offer their support.

But until support comes, many here will have to live without access to treatment.

Daahir Owre, an elderly man from Daynile district, west of Mogadishu, said he was unable to get antibiotics for his wife’s leg infection at the Daynile Hospital because the nurses told him that they had run out of the drugs.

“I don’t know what I am going to do now. I had to walk five kilometres to get here but I cannot get medicine for my family because there are no supplies at the centre,” Owre told IPS as he walked away.

Excerpt:

Somalis rally in support of peace in the capital Mogadishu. The country is still divided over whether a federal system of government should be implemented. Credit: Ahmed Osman/IPS

By Ahmed Osman
MOGADISHU , Sep 6 2013 (IPS)

The system of government remains the biggest political obstacle in Somalia as key political players boycotted the government’s current national conference to discuss this country’s political future, according to Jaylani Mukhtar, a local academic based in capital Mogadishu.

“I think Somalis do agree much about their future. But the issue of federalism is what we will mark as the biggest political obstacle facing the country, and the current conference will have much to debate about it,” Mukhtar told IPS.

On Sep. 2, the Somali Federal Government’s five-day conference began with an agenda to discuss key issues, which include implementing federalism, reforming the constitution and conducting elections in 2016 when the government’s term of office ends.

But representatives from many of this Horn of Africa’s breakaway states did not attend. The northeastern semi-autonomous state of Puntland said it would not attend the conference and accused the Somali government of “tampering” with the national constitution. It is a claim denied by Somali parliament speaker Osman Jawari.

The breakaway republic of Somaliland, in the northwest of the country, also did not send official representation to the conference.

Mohamed Jama, one of the organisers of the conference, said the meeting was not meant to represent the regional states but had brought together “experts and the national intelligentsia” to chart a pathway for this country’s political future.

“This was never meant to be a conference where various groups, whether they be regional states or political factions, record their stances, but a platform for Somalia experts, intelligentsia and the general public to discuss and debate about the country’s future direction politically,” Jama told IPS.

He said after deliberation and discussion on the various issues, conference participants would present recommendations to the government.

But the exclusion of key players in the current debate is similar to the previous government’s handling of the issue of federalism, always a divisive subject in Somalia.

The issue of giving member states autonomy over regional affairs, but still holding them subject to the authority of the government, has been praised by some as a solution to the two decades of civil conflict here. Others say that such a political system could further escalate the conflict by encouraging clan-based mini states.

Somalia’s former and interim Transitional Federal Government, which ended its mandate in August 2012, had agreed with regional states and local factions in central and southern Somalia that the country would adopt a federal system of government.

But Mukhtar said that the agreement had been among political leaders, and the Somali people had not been given a chance to vote on it. He said that it was a constitutional issue that was yet to be endorsed by the people.

“The problem is that the issue was just a political agreement and not a constitutional one because such an arrangement and how we implement federalism will be decided by the people when given the chance to have their say,” Mukhtar said.

Ahmed Daahir, a political analyst from the northern Somalia town of Bossaso, in Puntland, said federalism in Somalia could be a way to bring the government to the people.

“We have been governed directly from Mogadishu for many years, since independence actually, and that has brought destruction and state collapse. So what the people are saying is let’s empower citizens by having federated states,” Daahir told IPS.

The most recent breakaway state here is the semi-autonomous state of Jubbaland in southern Somalia. In May, local militia known as Ras Kamboni declared the three southern border provinces of Lower Jubba, Middle Jubba and Gedo as the state of Jubbaland and elected their leader, Ahmed Mohamed Islam, better known as Sheikh Madobe, as president.

The leaders argued that the constitution gave them the right to form the state, but government officials said the new state was not inclusive of all clans in the provinces and this could lead to bloodshed.

After Ethiopian mediation, the Somali government struck a deal with the regional leaders to institute a two-year interim administration for the breakaway state.

The agreement was seen as test of the government’s leadership. But the practicality of federalism in Somalia was rejected by many of the clans in Jubbaland who were not represented in the peace talks. Many saw the agreement as the government giving the leadership of the regions to Ras Kamboni, thereby ignoring the rights of other clans in the area.

“The Addis Ababa Agreement has shown us that to some federalism means a mini-state for one’s clan within Somalia, even at the expense and exclusion of others,” Mukhtar said.

He said that other autonomous states have “organically grown” in Somalia, such as the breakaway republic of Somaliland, and the self-autonomous state of Puntland in the northeast. There are also the breakaway states of Galmudug, as well as the Himin and Heeb states in central Somalia. These states are also clan-based “in various degrees” from being pure single-clan entities to being quasi multi-clan states.

As the debate rages at the national conference over the future political make-up of the country, Daahir fears that it will further the deep distrust among Somalis.

“What we need in Somalia more than anything now is real and genuine reconciliation to heal the wounds of the past three decades then and only then can we have meaningful discussion about the future of this country,” he said.

Senior militia commander Ahmed Mohamed Islam, better known as Sheikh Madobe, declared himself president of a self-declared autonomous state known as Jubbaland. Credit: Abdurrahman Warsameh /IPS

By Ahmed Osman
MOGADISHU, Sep 2 2013 (IPS)

Somali clan leaders say that an Aug. 27 agreement between the government and only a few leaders from the country’s three southern Jubba regions, which aims to resolve the ongoing dispute over who controls the area, creates more problems than it solves.

“The agreement, in essence, gives in to the original demands of one clan, the Ras Kamboni militia, for the domination over other communities just because they have the bigger guns. And that is unfortunate,” Mohamed Hassan, a clan elder in the southern port city of Kismayo, told IPS.

Since the 2012 ouster of the Islamist militant group, Al-Shabaab, from much of this Horn of Africa nation’s southern territories, the Somali government and the local militia group Ras Kamboni have been at loggerheads over control of the area.

On May 15, Ras Kamboni selected Ahmed Mohamed Islam, better known as Sheikh Madobe, leader of the group and as president of a self-declared regional autonomous state, which they named Jubbland. Kismayo was declared the state’s capital city. The Somali government, however, refused to recognise the state, which comprises the three southern regions Gedo, Lower Jubba and Middle Jubba.

In June, fighting broke out between the Ras Kamboni militias and local clans after they rejected Madobe’s authority. The World Health Organisation said that more than 70 people were killed and hundreds more injured as a result.

But Hassan said that the Jubba agreement, which was signed in the Ethiopian capital, Addis Ababa, did not address the core issue of the conflict and could lead to a more “uncertain future” for the people in the three provinces.

“With the exception of changing the name of the self-proclaimed state from Jubbaland to the Interim Jubba Administration, such an arrangement will further ignite communal conflict,” he said.

The deal establishes a two-year interim administration that will be run by leaders from the three southern states. It outlines managing the region’s federal institutions and infrastructure, including the airport and seaport – two of the main revenue generators for Gedo, Lower Jubba and Middle Jubba regions.

The agreement also envisages the integration of the local militias into the Somalian National Army and calls for reconciliation and confidence building between communities in the regions.

But Hassan cautioned against the agreement institutionalising a “one-clan hegemony” in Somalia’s most-diverse regions.

“We all know these regions are not inhabited by one clan, but are the most diverse regions in Somalia. Giving priority to one clan over others is calling for a continuation of the conflict, so I call on the Somali government and the international community to annul the so-called agreement and organise a real reconciliation for all clans here,” Hassan told IPS.

“We are for peace and brotherhood between the peoples here, not legitimising clanism. We will not accept anything less than justice, equality and respect for all.”

Yusuf Omar, a political scientist and independent analyst from Kismayo, told IPS that most of the local clans had not been represented in the talks that culminated in the signing of the Aug. 27 agreement.

“The conflict is not between the Somali government on the one hand and one clan in the Jubba regions on the other. The conflict is between local communities over the future of the provinces, and most were not represented at the talks,” he said.

A Somali soldier patrols a street in southern port city of Kismayo. Regional leaders say that the agreement with some of the regions’ clans and the Somali government over control of the three southern states could cause further divisions in the area. Credit: Ahmed Osman/IPS

While clan leaders say that the deal does not change anything on the ground, both the Somali government and leaders of Ras Kamboni insist that the agreement guarantees the new interim administration will be “an all-inclusive and representative body of all clans and constituencies.”

But the Mogadishu-based independent Somali think tank, the Heritage Institute for Policy Studies (HIPS), said the agreement was deliberately “crafted in worryingly vague terms.”

“In the absence of reliable population data and a recent census, the accurate distribution of seats [among the] clans is not possible. Representation lies at the heart of Somalia’s political conflict. Use of this language threatens to incite further conflict,” HIPS said in a report titled the “Jubba Agreement: Imperfect Progress”, which was released after the signing of the deal.

Kulmiye Yusuf, a local academic from Kismayo, agreed that the ambiguity of the terms of the agreement could lead to problems during its implementation phase. However, he believes that the deal marks a new start in the relations between the government and Madobe, the leader of the Ras Kamboni militia and the self-declared president of Jubbaland.

“I do agree with the assessment of the institute [HIPS] that what has been achieved so far is an imperfect progress. But what is needed is to view this as a good start and that genuine reconciliation between the local communities can now be initiated,” Yusuf told IPS.