Parliamentarians from Africa, Asia, and the Arab world gathered to assess pledges made at last year’s TICAD9 summit in Yokohama. Credit: APDA

By Hisham Allam
CAIRO, May 14 2026 (IPS)

The word heard most often at a two-day parliamentary forum in Cairo last week was not “commitment”; it was “follow-up.” And the difference mattered.

Parliamentarians from Africa, Asia, and the Arab world gathered 28–29 April not to renew pledges made at last year’s TICAD9 summit in Yokohama, but to ask what had actually been done. The answer was uneven, and delegates said so plainly.

The meeting, organised by the Asian Population and Development Association (APDA) and the Forum of Arab Parliamentarians on Population and Development (FAPPD) with support from UNFPA, the Japan Trust Fund, and IPPF, focused on sexual and reproductive health, universal health coverage, youth investment, and gender equality. It convened against a difficult backdrop: shrinking donor budgets, deepening demographic pressure across Africa, and a persistent gap between legislation and delivery.

Japan’s Makishima Karen, a member of the House of Representatives, Vice Chair of the Japan Parliamentarians Federation for Population, and former Minister for Digital Affairs, set the tone early. “Once a conference is finished, it’s no longer the finish – we should follow up the outcomes and the concrete actions,” she told IPS on the sidelines.

Makishima was direct about where progress begins. “Wherever you live or wherever you are born, the right to live healthily is a human right,” she said. “That is why I focus on the necessity of universal health coverage (UHC) for all.” She argued that UHC cannot be achieved without bringing finance ministries into the conversation: “The understanding of the Minister of Finance is necessary. We are encouraging ministries of finance to join the process.”

On what actually drives change at the community level, she was equally clear: “When mothers cannot read, it must be difficult for their communities to live healthily and safely. Education of women and girls is essential to protect the next generation.”

She also raised a dimension of the agenda that often goes unstated: the role of digital tools. Drawing on her background in digital governance, she argued that technology is not a separate track but integral to delivery: “With one smartphone, every person can access information, check their own data, and have the ability to control it. That is part of democracy.”

Meeting chairs set the tone, demanding asking for action, not new pledges, at a recent two-day forum in Cairo. Credit: APDA

On the wave of aid cuts hitting development programmes globally, she did not deflect. “I believe in the necessity of multilateral organisational frameworks; otherwise, it is very difficult to continue the necessary programmes in each region.” The longer-term answer, she said, is not to wait for donors to return. “Within five or ten years, each government should take on the responsibility to continue these programmes. We must have a very long-term perspective.”

Tanzania’s Jackson Kiswaga, MP, offered the clearest example of what domestic ownership can look like. His country, with 71.5 million people, 60 percent under 24, growing at nearly three percent a year, has been moving fast. In 2023, Tanzania passed the Universal Health Insurance Act, integrating reproductive health services into mandatory coverage spanning formal and informal sectors. A dedicated Youth Ministry was established under the President’s Office. A national scholarship programme has since supported over 400 girls in science education, with measurable reductions in early marriage and pregnancy.

“Institutional innovations are models for other countries,” Kiswaga said. “Strong partnerships in the health sector are key to ensuring sustainability.”

Morocco’s Soukaina Lahmouch, MP, offered a sharper warning. Her country enacted landmark legislation against gender-based violence in 2018, but seven years on, implementation has stalled. Procedural complexity, weak enforcement, and cultural resistance, particularly in domestic violence cases, have blunted the law’s impact.

“Women in Morocco still suffer discrimination and exclusion,” she said, “despite the progress made.” She called on TICAD to support not just the drafting of laws but their enforcement through court reform, rural health infrastructure, and access to financing for women.

Parliamentarians were reminded that the outcomes from Cairo would be reported to the Global Conference of Parliamentarians on Population and Development in Tokyo 2027. Credit: APDA

Two other delegates raised pressures that seldom receive equal billing. Tunisia’s Ezzeddine Tayeb, MP warned that his country’s rapidly ageing population is straining its pension system and called for a comprehensive law guaranteeing the rights of elderly citizens, including enforceable standards for long-term care. Algeria’s MP Khaled Bourenane placed the forum’s agenda inside Africa’s continental trajectory: a population heading toward 2.5 billion by 2050, with over 20 million people displaced by climate events annually. Demographic challenges at this scale, he argued, cannot be addressed in silos.

JICA representative Yo Ebisawa pointed to Egypt as a live test case. In 2017, Egypt ranked the third globally in out-of-pocket health spending as a share of household budgets.

Since passing its Universal Health Insurance Law, the country has been rolling out coverage across all 27 governorates, targeting completion by 2030. So far, six million people across six governorates have been enrolled. In Port Said, the share of households facing catastrophic health expenditure has fallen by 40 percent. Japan has backed the rollout with a $400 million development policy loan and an $8 million joint JICA-WHO project providing equipment and training, including for facilities serving Sudanese refugees and medical evacuees from Gaza.

APDA Vice Chair Prof. Kiyoko Ikegami closed the first day with a pointed reminder: the outcomes from Cairo will be reported to the Global Conference of Parliamentarians on Population and Development in Tokyo 2027. The chain of accountability, she said, must hold.

Whether the commitments made in Cairo translate into budget lines, legislation, and services – that is the only measure that counts.

Note: The meeting was organised by the Asian Population and Development Association (APDA) and the Forum of Arab Parliamentarians on Population and Development (FAPPD). It was supported by the Japan Trust Fund (JTF), the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) Arab States Regional Office (ASRO),  and the International Planned Parenthood Federation (IPPF), in collaboration with the African Parliamentary Forum on Population and Development (FPA).

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Parliamentarians from the Asian Population and Development Association (APDA) and the Forum of Arab Parliamentarians on Population and Development (FAPPD) met in Cairo. Credit: APDA

By Hisham Allam
CAIRO, Nov 3 2025 (IPS)

Inclusive legislation, empowered youth, and anti-violence policies are inseparable aspects of sustainable development and were the key messages at a conference of the Inter-Regional Meeting of Asian and Arab Parliamentarians on Population and Development held in Cairo on October 24, 2025.

The forum spotlighted urgent regional collaboration on sexual and reproductive health, youth inclusion, gender-based violence, and sustainable development. The gathering underlined the pressing need for legislative reform and multi-sector engagement to tackle complex social challenges amid shifting demographics and development imperatives.

The meeting, jointly organized by the Asian Population and Development Association (APDA) and the Forum of Arab Parliamentarians on Population and Development (FAPPD), with close collaboration from the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), with the support of the Japan Trust Fund (JTF) and International Planned Parenthood Federation (IPPF), convened a high-profile roster of leaders and experts.

Key figures included Dr. Abdel Hadi al-Qasby, member of the Egyptian Senate and chair of the meeting; Dr. Mohamed Al-Samadi, Secretary General of the FAPPD; Professor Takemi Keizo, former Japanese Health Minister and Chair of APDA; and Dominic Allen, Deputy Regional Director for UNFPA Arab States Office.

Sessions homed in on strengthening sexual and reproductive health (SRH) as a cornerstone of social and economic progress, with UNFPA’s Dr. Hala Youssef highlighting SRH’s role in boosting productivity and well-being.

“Healthy individuals contribute to a more productive economy,” she said. The forum candidly addressed the region’s demographic challenges, barriers in access to care, and declining donor funding that threaten gains in maternal health and family planning.

Youth empowerment emerged as a strategic priority throughout the forum, with policymakers acknowledging that the region’s overwhelming majority under 30 must be engaged as active partners in shaping their future, rather than passive recipients of policy decisions.

Dr. Rida Shibli, former member of the Jordanian Senate, underscored this shift in mindset, stating, “Youth are partners, not just beneficiaries,” and advocating for structured, inclusive platforms that effectively empower young people to influence policy.

Tunisia’s progressive reforms—featuring the establishment of youth councils and vocational training programs—were highlighted as leading examples of meaningful youth engagement fostering both opportunity and participation.

The forum’s candid discussion on gender-based violence (GBV) underscored its pressing public health implications.

Mohamed Abou Nar, Chief Programs and Impact Officer at Pathfinder International, warned that despite the existence of comprehensive legal protections, enforcement remains inconsistent and inadequate.

He declared, “GBV is a public health emergency,” emphasizing the need to implement survivor-centered health services and legal reforms grounded in robust community involvement and multisectoral collaboration.

Hibo Ali Houssein, MP from Djibouti, reflected on the tension between progressive laws and enduring cultural norms that limit justice access for GBV survivors, while Bahrain’s Dr. Mohammed Ali called for legislative alignment to optimize private sector contributions, stating, “The private sector must provide capital, spark innovation, and create jobs within frameworks mandating sustainability.”

Country-specific achievements illustrated the forum’s depth. Cambodia is swiftly moving towards graduating from Least Developed Country status by 2027, with economic and regional partnerships propelling its long path to upper-middle-income status.

MP Chandara Khut stated plainly, “Peace has brought stability, which in turn nurtures development and growth.”

Sarah Elago, the representative from the Philippines, made a clear call on funding for adolescent pregnancy and maternal health, stating that “development is measured by dignity, equality, well-being, and everyday experiences of women, youth, and the people—not merely by numbers.”

The delegates called on parliamentarians, governments, and partners to convert dialogue into concrete action, emphasizing transparency, accountability, and regional solidarity as key drivers toward shared goals.

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Delegates from the Forum of Arab Parliamentarians on Population and Development and the Asian Population and Development Association met in Cairo to discuss support for people with disabilities and the elderly. Credit: APDA

By Hisham Allam
CAIRO, Oct 24 2024 (IPS)

In a significant move to address the challenges faced by people with disabilities and the elderly, six Egyptian parliamentary committees met in Cairo on October 12 to discuss national strategies and legislative efforts.

The Forum of Arab Parliamentarians on Population and Development and the Asian Population and Development Association (APDA), with support from the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) and the Government of Japan, organized the meeting with the focus of aligning Egypt’s policies with the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).

Roughly 1.2 million people with disabilities currently receive state assistance, while Egypt’s elderly population continues to grow. According to the Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics (CAPMAS), 10.64 percent of Egyptians have a disability, and the elderly population reached 9.3 million in 2024, representing 8.8 percent of the total population—4.6 million men (8.5 percent) and 4.7 million women (9.2 percent). The parliamentary committees convened to enhance support for these vulnerable groups.

Dr. Abdelhadi Al-Qasabi, Chairman of the Committee on Social Solidarity, Family, and People with Disabilities, emphasized recent legislative developments. He pointed out that Egypt has passed important legislation, such as the Elderly Care Law in 2024 and the Law on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities in 2018, to safeguard these vulnerable groups. He underlined that these laws show the state’s adherence to the Egyptian Constitution, which upholds everyone’s right to a dignified life free from discrimination.

“Egypt has made significant strides by adopting policies and laws that protect and empower people with disabilities and the elderly,” stated Al-Qasabi. “We aim to ensure they are not only recipients of support but contributors to the nation’s progress.”

The “Karama” program of the Egyptian government, which offers financial aid to those with impairments, was the focus of the gathering. Egypt’s Minister of Social Solidarity, Dr. Maya Morsy, noted that the program, which has an annual budget of about 10 billion Egyptian pounds, currently serves 1.2 million people with 1.3 million integrated services cards distributed to make access to social services and healthcare easier.

“We are committed to ensuring that people with disabilities receive their integrated services cards within 30 days, enhancing their access to vital resources.”

Morsy emphasized the Elderly Care Law, which assures those over 65 have better access to social, economic, and healthcare services. “We aim to create an environment where the elderly can live independently, free from abuse or exploitation, while continuing to contribute to society,” she told the audience.

Dr. Hala Youssef, UNFPA Advisor, emphasized the need for international cooperation in meeting the SDGs and ensuring that no one falls behind.

Discussion at a conference under the auspices of the Forum of Arab Parliamentarians on Population and Development and the Asian Population and Development Association discussed the empowerment of people with disabilities and the elderly. Credit: APDA

“Parliamentarians play a strategic role in creating a legislative framework that addresses the needs of the most vulnerable,” Youssef added. “Innovation and technology can be powerful tools for inclusion, providing people with disabilities access to education, employment, and social participation on an equal footing.”

Youssef went on to emphasize disturbing global figures, stating that 46 percent of seniors over 60 have some type of handicap and that persons with disabilities were among the hardest struck during the COVID-19 pandemic.

“Children with disabilities are four times more likely to experience violence than their peers, while adults with disabilities face higher risks of abuse and exploitation,” Youssef said, urging a stronger commitment to protecting their rights.

Dr. Sami Hashim, head of the Committee on Education and Scientific Research, stressed the integration of individuals with disabilities in the educational system. He emphasized that, especially in the age of artificial intelligence, education must be adaptable, inclusive, and forward-thinking.

“Our education system must not only teach knowledge but prepare individuals for success in an increasingly technological world,” said Hashim. “This is particularly important for students with disabilities, who should have access to the tools and opportunities that will allow them to thrive.”

The forum emphasized the critical need for national and international collaboration to build inclusive, egalitarian communities, given that 80% of the one billion persons with disabilities worldwide live in developing nations and that the number of older people in need of assistance is rising.
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Dabaa nuclear project promises energy stability to Egypt. Credit: ROSATOM

By Hisham Allam
CAIRO, Mar 21 2024 (IPS)

Egypt’s economy continues to face significant challenges, but amidst these, the Dabaa Nuclear Power Plant project emerges as a beacon of hope.

This ambitious collaboration with Russia signifies a potential game-changer, promising to invigorate the nation’s energy landscape and bring about economic upliftment. Despite the international sanctions imposed on Russia, the project marches forward undeterred, promising stability, progress, and much-needed energy security for Egypt’s future. 

Egypt’s economy is currently navigating through a period of significant challenges. The country is grappling with a high inflation rate, which stood at 29.8% in January 2024. Economic growth has declined to 4.2% during FY23 (July 2022–June 2023) from 6.6% a year earlier. Despite these hurdles, the Egyptian authorities have been undertaking a series of policy adjustments and structural reforms. These measures, coupled with the anticipated recovery of real GDP growth to 4.7% in FY 2024/2025, signal potential improvements over the medium term.

Dr. Sameh Noman, a professor of engineering and renewable energy expert, explained that the project, which is 85% financed by Russia, marks a significant progression in Egypt’s energy sector. Egypt, he added, bears the remaining cost and the project is being implemented in stages.

Noman pointed out that the agreement stipulates that at least 20 percent of the secondary components of the station will be Egyptian products, a percentage that increases to approximately 70 percent upon completion. He emphasized the importance of the partnership between Egypt and Russia in producing non-primary and essential components for the station, which constitute 70 to 75% of the station’s total components. This collaboration, he noted, enables a gradual transfer of technology and expertise to Egyptian industries.

According to Noman, the payment of funds will commence after the operation of the station and the start of electricity production. He reassured that the project will not be a burden on Egypt’s economy, as this step was agreed upon in 2015, and Egypt will only bear a very small part of the cost during the construction stages.

The Dabaa plant, as Noman described it to IPS, is a single station with four reactors, each producing 1.2 megawatts, meaning that the total output from the station is 4.8 megawatts. He underscored the advantage of the plant in that the cost of producing the kilowatt is very close to the cost of producing its counterpart from renewable energy.

Nestled along the picturesque Mediterranean coast, the Dabaa plant comprises four state-of-the-art pressurized water reactors, each boasting a capacity of 1,200 megawatts. With a combined capacity of 4,800 megawatts, this ambitious initiative is poised to significantly bolster Egypt’s energy grid, meeting the growing demands of its population.

Noman said emissions from the plant are close to about 14 grams of carbon dioxide per kilowatt. When comparing this with gas power stations, he noted that the latter produces 500 grams of carbon dioxide emissions per kilowatt, while wind power produces 12 grams of carbon per kilowatt.

Noman assured that the international sanctions imposed on Russia would not be an obstacle to completing the project, especially since Russia is considered a major player in nuclear energy production and the construction and operation of stations. He stated that a large part of the project has already been implemented, and we are currently in the stage of pouring concrete for the fourth transformer.

Dr. Karim El-Adham, the former head of the Nuclear Safety Authority, highlighted that Egypt is the first country in Africa to build a “VVER-1200” nuclear reactor, a model known for its nuclear safety rates and electricity production. The Dabaa station, located in Matrouh Governorate on the Mediterranean Sea coast, had undergone numerous studies over more than thirty years, ensuring its compliance with all safety conditions and nuclear safety standards set by the International Atomic Energy Agency.

El-Adham emphasized the project’s economic feasibility and its role in fostering state growth and sustainability alongside renewable energy sources. He also addressed the environmental impact of the project, revealing that the emissions from the plant are close to about 14 grams of carbon dioxide per kilowatt, significantly lower than gas power stations.

He reassured that the international sanctions imposed on Russia would not be an obstacle to completing the project, especially since Russia is the first country globally in nuclear energy production and the construction and operation of stations. A large part of the project has already been implemented, and we are currently in the stage of pouring concrete for the fourth transformer.

El-Adham also noted that upon completion, the plant is estimated to inject over 35 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity annually at a competitive cost while simultaneously creating job opportunities for Egyptians. This, he believes, is a testament to the potential of the Dabaa Nuclear Power Plant project.

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A woman worker on a farm in Jordan. Credit : Abdel Hameed Al Nasier/ILO

By Hisham Allam
CAIRO, Jan 25 2024 (IPS)

Dr. Zeinab Al-Momany, a prominent social entrepreneur, sheds light on the journey of empowering women farmers in Jordan and the Arab world, where women often work long hours for low pay and lack labour recognition.

As the visionary behind the Sakhrah Women’s Society Cooperative and the Specific Union for Productive Farmer Women in Jordan (SUFWJ), Al-Momany shares her perspectives with IPS on the challenges faced by women farmers, the impact of organizations like SUFWJ on rural economic growth and women’s rights, and the profound implications of climate change for women in agriculture. 

A Pioneering Journey

Al-Momany, boasting a diverse background in business management and holding a Ph.D. in Philosophy of Management, laid the foundation for the Sakhrah Women’s Society Cooperative in 2007. This cooperative, a pioneering endeavor in Jordan and the Arab world, focuses on enhancing the capacities of small agricultural organizations. Her commitment to empowering female farmers and advocating for their rights has transcended borders, uniting 22 women’s organizations, and now the SUFWJ has 5000 members. Her leadership extends globally, serving as the President of the Arab Farmer Network (Arrinina) and as a member of prestigious organizations such as the World Farmer Organization (WFO) and Climate Change and Food Security (CCFS). In 2008, she was honored with the Schwab Foundation Social Entrepreneur of the Year award.

Dr. Zeinab Al-Momany has been working to empower women farmers in Jordan and beyond. Credit: SUFWJ

SUFWJ’s Impact on Women Farmers

Established in 2007, SUFWJ has significantly shaped the landscape for women farmers in Jordan. SUFWJ has successfully increased the number of women who own land, championed wage equality, and enabled free health and social insurance thanks to its effective programs. The union’s initiatives have empowered 120 women farmers in leadership roles, offered health insurance to 578 families, trained 7,000 women and girls, and provided micro-finance loans to 800 women and girls.

“The union has been able to increase the percentage of land ownership through a project that began with its implementation in 2007, pointing out that the percentage was 2.7, and according to statistics, it has increased to 5.5 percent,” she says.

“The union launched the health insurance project in 2014 and is still working with the support of USAID FHI to provide free health insurance to female farmers through the Ministry of Social Development. The insurance covered 558 families in the northern and central Ghor areas (in Jordan) and is seeking to reach the southern Ghor.”

Addressing Challenges and Inequality

Al-Momany draws attention to the unequal laws affecting female farmworkers, emphasizing the disparities in comparison to their foreign counterparts. SUFWJ, through its robust advocacy program, channels efforts toward changing laws and regulations concerning female farmers. The focus is on advocating for their rights to health insurance, social security, equal wages, and improved working conditions.

She pointed out that the union has amended the internal system of the General Farmers Union, where the law used to require female farmers to own 10 dunums (about 1 hectare) of land to join the union, but after the amendment, female farmers were allowed to join by renting land. She mentioned that the union is currently working on the labor and workers’ law so that they are eligible for social security and health insurance to protect their rights.

Economic Empowerment Initiatives

Al-Momany shed light on the union’s economic empowerment program, which identifies the needs of female farmers and formulates action plans every two to five years based on these needs. The goal is to address the specific challenges women farmers face, set clear objectives, and implement targeted programs to achieve sustainable progress.

Al-Momany referred to the law as “unequal” and explained that despite doing the same arduous work as foreign workers, female farm workers receive low wages, have no leave rights, and do not have organized contracts to protect their rights.

Climate Change and Future Initiatives

Through the union, efforts have been directed at raising awareness of climate change issues, increasing green areas, and aiding women farmers in transitioning to clean and renewable energy. The initiatives include providing loans for installing solar panels instead of electricity, digging wells for rainwater collection, and installing solar heaters. The union also supports organic farming, extracting organic fertilizers, and spearheading projects on environmental diversity and the conservation of forests and animals.

The most affected by climate change are farmers and women farmers, especially with the rise in temperature. Working in agriculture at this high temperature affects their health due to their exposure to the sun for long periods, as it affects crops, the work of women farmers, and the national product. Jordan also suffers from water scarcity, and with the effects of climate change, the salinity rate increases, leading to a problem in the quality of soil, crops, and water availability.

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UN Secretary-General António Guterres looks across the ice sheet at Frei Antarctica base. Credit: UN Photo/Mark

By Hisham Allam
CAIRO, Nov 27 2023 (IPS)

The recent U.S.-China summit on November 15 in San Francisco, against a backdrop of low expectations, surprisingly made significant strides with the unveiling of the “Sunnylands Statement on Enhancing Cooperation to Address the Climate Crisis.” This agreement, the result of two years of negotiations between climate envoys John Kerry and Xie Zhenhua, represents a considerable advancement following the 2021 joint declaration at the Glasgow Climate Summit.

The declaration has a dual focus: it establishes a working group to address critical climate issues through U.S.-China collaboration, and it sets forth commitments to amplify international efforts, particularly under the Paris Agreement. Importantly, this collaborative endeavor aims to reactivate a working group that was stalled in 2021 due to geopolitical disputes, demonstrating a renewed commitment to overcoming hurdles in climate cooperation.

The statement covers practical areas of collaboration, ranging from methane reduction to large-scale carbon capture projects. It also signals a revival of the U.S.-China Energy Efficiency Forum and endorses subnational cooperation, spotlighting successful initiatives between California and China.

A key aspect of the Sunnylands Statement is its reference to the upcoming 28th United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP28) in Dubai, with a promise of a jointly hosted summit on methane and non-CO2 gases. It introduces a commitment to economy-wide targets on all greenhouse gases by 2035, a significant step for China, and addresses the contentious issue of climate finance, a topic that has ignited heated debates in previous COP meetings. It was welcomed by Dr Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber,
COP28 President-Designate, who noted that the “Global Stocktake evidences that there is much to be done to get back on track and keep 1.5C within reach. It will require all parties to unite, act, and deliver a high-ambition GST decision at COP28.”

John Englander, a US expert in climate change, global warming, and rising sea levels, told IPS that China’s new commitment to GHG reduction is significant. It holds importance not only in potentially reducing their emissions but also in encouraging others to do the same. However, he emphasized that this will not “solve climate change.”

Englander added that despite all our efforts, we are losing ground each year.

“While being hopeful and innovative is great, we also need to be realistic. With the excess heat already stored in the ocean, Greenland and Antarctica will almost certainly continue their quickening melt rate, raising global sea levels.”

He stressed the need for planning and implementing more adaptation, even with all the glimmers of hope.

He stated that it was a positive step. If all the CO2 emitters adopted tighter standards, it would help slow the rate of warming a little bit. It’s a good start, but even with all the current efforts, we are losing ground. Sea levels will rise for centuries in any scenario. We need to slow the warming as much as possible, but we also need to realize that sea level is going to rise significantly.

As the world prepares for COP28 in Dubai, António Guterres, during a visit late last week to Antarctica, reflected on the impact of global warming on the region and appealed to world leaders to limit the global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius.

He also urged them to protect people from climate chaos and end the fossil fuel age, saying, “We must not let all hopes for a sustainable planet melt away.”

Khaled Suliman, an expert in climate change from Iraq, has pointed out that China, during the inception of the Industrial Revolution, was not among the industrial nations primarily accountable for carbon emissions. As such, China leans on its historical lack of responsibility and argues that it shouldn’t be obligated to undertake climate mitigation efforts like other countries, such as Britain, which is recognized as the pioneer of the Industrial Revolution, the technological revolution, and carbon emissions. Suliman emphasized that China’s heavy reliance on oil is a crucial factor. Any disruption in its oil dependence could lead to an economic downturn. Currently, China is in urgent need to persist with its economic development to ascend as the world’s leading industrial nation.

From the onset of the Industrial Revolution until now, British emissions have totaled 78 billion tons. In contrast, Chinese emissions from 2010 to 2021 have surpassed 150 billion tons of carbon, according to Suliman. This situation poses a significant challenge. Although it’s generally accepted that China isn’t historically responsible, the vast amount of carbon emissions it has produced in recent years is difficult to manage. This predicament could potentially hinder negotiations between China and major industrial nations, particularly the United States, which is the second-largest carbon emitter after China.

Any commitment from China to reduce carbon emissions inherently implies a decrease in the consumption of fossil fuels. Consequently, this commitment is likely to impact other countries that export oil to China. Moreover, it could also affect Chinese companies operating in the oil sector in Africa and the Middle East, especially as these companies are expanding globally.

“This agreement could therefore influence the oil and gas industries in these countries and their respective companies. Additionally, it could also impact the Chinese industry known for supplying globally competitive goods due to their low prices, a feat achieved largely due to fossil fuels and oil and gas,” Suliman told IPS.

Given the world’s reliance on fossil fuels, any agreement between developed and emerging industrial countries, as Suliman stated, could initially have a negative impact on the world economy.

“These agreements, however, are expected to produce positive outcomes and significant benefits in the future, particularly if there is a shift toward renewable energy and reducing emissions from fossil fuels. Such measures would benefit biodiversity, natural ecosystem conservation, smart agriculture, and nature-based solutions. All of these factors are expected to benefit economies, communities, food sources, and global food security,” Suliman said.

He warned that if the dependence on fossil fuels continues, by the end of the century, we could see a temperature rise exceeding 4 degrees Celsius compared to pre-Industrial Revolution levels. Consequently, many regions worldwide, including the Middle East, could become uninhabitable.

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Christian citizens bury victims of Israel's bombing of the Greek Orthodox Church in Gaza. Credit: Hany Al-Shaeir/IPS

By Hisham Allam and Naureen Hossain
CAIRO & UNITED NATIONS, Oct 22 2023 (IPS)

The ongoing violence in the Gaza Strip has resulted in a humanitarian crisis described as “catastrophic” – and even as aid arrived, strikes intensified.

According to the health ministry in Gaza, Israeli attacks have killed 4,385 Palestinians and wounded 13,650 more since October 7. The victims include 3,983 children and 3,300 women. In the West Bank and East Jerusalem, another 64 Palestinians have been killed and 1,230 injured by Israeli forces in the same period, as reported by the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA).

Palestinian rockets and other attacks have claimed the lives of 1,300 Israelis and injured 4,562 more, while nearly 200 remain captive, according to OCHA. The conflict has also forced about one million Palestinians in Gaza to flee their homes, more than half of whom are staying in UNRWA facilities across the territory.

A convoy with aid entered Gaza for the first time on October 21 since the outbreak of hostilities on October 7.

Martin Griffiths, the Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs and Emergency Relief Coordinator, welcomed aid and said he was confident that this would be the start of a “sustainable effort to provide essential supplies – including food, water, medicine, and fuel – to the people of Gaza, in a safe, dependable, unconditional and unimpeded manner.

Trucks carrying 60 metric tons of World Food Programme emergency food were among the first humanitarian convoys to cross the Rafah border between Egypt and Gaza. Credit: WFP

“Two weeks since the start of hostilities, the humanitarian situation in Gaza – already precarious – has reached catastrophic levels. It is critical that aid reaches people in need wherever they are across Gaza and at the right scale.

“The people of Gaza have endured decades of suffering. The international community cannot continue to fail them.”

UNRWA, the United Nations agency that helps Palestinian refugees, says that more than half a million people are staying in crowded shelters in Gaza, especially in the south. They have left their homes because of the war and have nowhere else to go.

The shelters do not have enough food, water, hygiene, and cleaning items, and they are not clean enough. The UNRWA says that this is a health problem, and it makes the people who live there feel more stressed and scared. Some of them have gone back to where they came from, even though it is still dangerous.

The water crisis in Gaza is also affecting the UNRWA shelters, as many of them do not have any water supply at all. The agency says that fuel is urgently needed to operate water pumps and desalination plants, but it is scarce and expensive due to the blockade and the war.

UNRWA Director of Communications Juliette Touma noted during a UN briefing last week that the organization was concerned about shortages of water.

“We are very concerned about the spread of water-borne diseases,” Touma said. The influx of people in shelters and facilities such as hospitals means that the latter have been over-extended to accommodate them while resuming regular operations.

“We call for the siege to be lifted so that UNRWA and other sister and humanitarian agencies can bring in much-needed supplies,” Touma said.

On October 20, the UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres visited the gate to Gaza (Rafah Crossing) and spoke about the humanitarian crisis in the enclave. He said, “We have a situation where trucks carrying vital supplies are stuck at the border while the people in Gaza are suffering from a lack of water, electricity, food, and medicine. We need to end this deadlock urgently.”

The next day, several trucks entered Gaza with aid, following a previous agreement between the USA, Egypt, and Israel.

Guterres praised the efforts of the Egyptian Red Crescent and other Egyptian entities that are helping the people in Gaza, along with the United Nations. He said, “It’s important that we have consistent support, with a sufficient number of trucks allowed to cross every day.”

A large convoy of humanitarian aid from Egypt is waiting to enter Gaza through the Rafah crossing, according to a volunteer from the National Alliance for Civil Development Work. The convoy consists of 120 trucks carrying 1,000 tons of food and meat, 40,000 blankets, 80 tents, 46,000 pieces of clothing, and 290,000 boxes of medicines and medical supplies.

A volunteer, Ahmed Magdy, said that the convoy had been delayed for days and that only limited trucks were allowed to pass. He expressed his disappointment and frustration at the situation, especially after the bombing of Al-Ahli Hospital in Gaza and the shortage of medical resources in most of the hospitals in the Strip. He said that the Egyptian civil society organizations are eager to deliver their aid to the people of Gaza, who are suffering from Israeli aggression.

According to the Palestine Red Crescent, 20 trucks of humanitarian aid have arrived in Gaza and will be distributed according to the Emergency Committee’s lists. However, the organization warned that the supplies are not enough to meet the needs of the region and that the humanitarian crisis in Gaza continues.

While IPS was interviewing Hisham Mahna, spokesperson for the International Committee of the Red Cross in Gaza, the Jerusalem Hospital affiliated with the Palestinian Red Crescent Society received a notice of immediate evacuation from the Israeli army and a threat of shelling. More threats continued over the weekend, with Palestinians saying they had received renewed new warnings from Israel’s military to move from north Gaza to the south of the strip.

According to Hisham, the hospital houses more than 400 patients, including critically ill patients and others in the intensive care unit, in addition to 12,000 displaced civilians who have taken refuge in the hospital as a safe place, in addition to the medical staff.

“We appealed to the Israeli authorities at all levels to stop the repeated attacks on hospitals, to highlight the dire humanitarian situation inside the hospital for patients and displaced people, and to avoid a repeat of the Al-Ahli Hospital tragedy,” Mahna told IPS.

Ahmed El-Beriem, a Palestinian journalist and volunteer coordinator at UNRWA shelters in the Gaza Strip, tells IPS that most of the population of Gaza has been displaced to the south, which is what Israel had planned from the beginning of the war to force Gazans to leave through the Egyptian border.

“The tents provided by UN agencies are no longer enough. There are more than half a million displaced people without shelter. As for schools, the classrooms are full to the brim, with most of them reaching a density of 70 people in a room that does not exceed 25 square meters.”

El-Beriem says that the cemeteries in the Gaza Strip are filled to the brim. There is no more room, which forced the municipality to dig mass graves, each of which contains between 100 and 200 dead.

“Since the beginning of the war, the people of Gaza have been living without water or electricity. The water provided by aid organizations is limited, and diseases are widespread in the refugee camps.”

He says, “You can barely breathe clean air. The displaced people are scattered in schools, in gardens, in the courtyards of mosques, and in the corridors of hospitals.

Security has become a rare commodity. People here do not have the luxury of sleeping. You never know when the shelling will come. Israel is firing shells over the heads of civilians day and night. They are shelling hospitals, mosques, churches, residential towers, crossings, and everything.”

On the other side of the border, a field coordinator with the Egyptian Red Crescent, Mohamed Jamal, said they have received hundreds of tons of aid for Gaza at El-Arish Airport in Egypt’s northern Sinai. However, he said they are still waiting for the border to open to deliver the aid. “We are still waiting for any breakthrough in the situation and the opening of the crossing,” Jamal told IPS.

He said the international aid includes medical equipment, medicines, food, blankets, and clothing from various countries and organizations. Jamal said the Egyptian Red Crescent was coordinating with other countries and the Palestinian Red Crescent to assess the needs of the people in Gaza and provide them with the necessary relief supplies.

According to UN Women, the recent outbreak of violence and destruction in Gaza has forced nearly 493,000 women and girls to flee their homes. The violence has also left many women without their male partners, as about 900 women have become widows and heads of households.

Sarah Hendriks, UN Women Deputy Executive Director, ad interim, said: “UN Women urges an immediate humanitarian ceasefire and unrestricted access to humanitarian aid, including food, water, fuel, and health supplies, which are vital for the survival of women and girls in the Gaza Strip.”

The World Food Programme (WFP) has been providing food and cash assistance to 522,000 Palestinians each day since the start of the crisis, even as stocks run dangerously low. Due to the widespread destruction and insecurity, the replenishment of supplies has proven to be difficult, nigh impossible.

The call for an end to the siege has been made more pertinent and urgent after the bombings of a UNRWA school in the Al-Maghazi refugee camp and the Al Ahli Anglican Episcopal Hospital on October 17, resulting in casualties in the hundreds. Guterres condemned the strikes in a statement issued that same day, also emphasizing that under international law, hospitals and medical clinics are protected under international law.

Since the start of the crisis, 26 healthcare facilities have been damaged by the fighting, according to the World Health Organization. Facilities such as hospitals have already been overwhelmed with the patient care they provide during such crises, as well as serving as shelters for displaced peoples.

The UN Emergency Relief Coordinator Martin Griffiths spoke at the Security Council to call for the involved parties to respect international humanitarian law. He also called for a ceasefire so that humanitarian efforts could step in. Following the hospital bombing on Tuesday, he noted that medical personnel and facilities are protected under international law.

“It’s imperative that the wounded and the sick receive the medical care they need,” he said. “It is imperative that the parties respect their obligations under international humanitarian law, and it is our collective responsibility – we are all involved in this, we are not observers, we are all involved – in using all our influence to ensure that this is the case.”

Some Member States have extended their support to the people of Palestine and the relief effort. The United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia contributed USD 20 million and USD 2 million, respectively, to UNRWA’s relief funding. Contributions have also come from Jordan, Ireland, and Iceland.

There have also been statements that call out or even condemn the Israeli military forces in their operations against Hamas for its impact on the civilian population.

A spokesperson for the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights stated that the continued attacks and siege of Gaza have demonstrated “daily indications of violations of the law of war and international human rights law.”

Francesca Albanese, UN Special Rapporteur on the situation of human rights in the Palestinian Territory occupied since 1967, has warned that the Palestinians face the “grave danger of mass ethnic cleansing” should the war continue and has stated that Israeli forces’ military operations go “well beyond the limits of international law.”

In the 15-member council, a resolution that would have condemned all violence against civilians in the Hamas-Israel conflict was vetoed by the United States. Russia and Britain, two other permanent members of the Security Council, abstained during the voting process – the rationale being that more time was needed for diplomacy.

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Egypt is sacrificing a historic area to make way for a road network to assist with traffic flow in Cairo. Credit: Hisham Allam/IPS

By Hisham Allam
CAIRO, Oct 18 2023 (IPS)

The Egyptian government is clearing a vast area in Historic Cairo, a UNESCO World Heritage Site, to make way for new main roads and flyover bridges, which it says will improve traffic flow in the sprawling, congested megacity.

The developments are being pitched as part of an effort to modernize Egypt and connect the heart of the capital with a new administrative one being built 45km (28 miles) to the east.

However, the affected gravesites are mostly from the past century and include some in the famous City of the Dead, where Egypt’s notables have long been buried, often in fancy marble tombs engraved with Arabic calligraphy.

The city’s two main cemeteries radiate north and south from a central citadel known as the City of the Dead. Building the new highway will entail removing thousands of family graves, including those of historic figures from Egyptian history and culture.

Dr Islam Assem, an assistant professor of modern and contemporary history, told IPS that the demolition of these historic cemeteries is a “disaster by any measure.” He said that there is no rational justification for the demolition and that it is a decision that was not made after any study.

“Under any circumstances, we cannot destroy our heritage with our own hands and erase our identity and history,” Assem said.

He cited the example of Egypt’s construction of the Aswan High Dam, where it was discovered that the reservoir would cover archaeological sites behind the dam. Egypt worked with UNESCO to save the Abu Simbel Temple and other antiquities that were threatened by flooding.

“The government should have taken its time and found logical solutions for these cemeteries, such as moving them in a respectful way,” Assem said.

He added that the cemeteries “carry a history of at least 250 years that is not written in books but is written on the tombstones of these places.”

Heritage enthusiasts are collecting tombstones, plaques, inscriptions, and unique mausoleums from 17 cemeteries being demolished by the government in Historic Cairo. They are afraid that these items will be stolen or destroyed. The tombs of Ali Pasha Fahmi and the Daramli family, as well as the tomb of the freedmen of Prince Ibrahim Helmy, which was built over a century ago, are being demolished.

Historian Sameh Al-Zahar said that Historic Cairo is entirely listed on the UNESCO World Heritage List, including the cemeteries, which is the area where development and demolition work is taking place. This is regardless of whether some of the cemeteries are registered or not.

Al-Zahar, a specialist in Islamic antiquities, added that the officials’ comment that the demolition is taking place on unregistered cemeteries is “a true statement with a false intention.” The meaning of the government not registering them is that this denies their significance, as some employees believe that we have enough antiquities and, therefore, there is no need to register them.

Some of these cemeteries date back historically between 700 and 1,000 years. Al-Zahar explained that this land was allocated by Omar ibn al-Khattab, the second caliph of the Muslims, to be a city for the dead for Egyptians for 1,400 years.

He continued that eviction operations are taking place without legal, moral, or humanitarian justification, as the owners of these cemeteries own them with official contracts. Therefore, no one has the right to expropriate their property and transfer their remains without their consent and the consent of their families.

According to Al-Zahar, the government is using double standards by registering some places as archaeological buildings, such as the late President Gamal Abdel Nasser’s home and the Rifa’i Mosque, even though they are less than 100 years old, simply because they are associated with historical and important figures. He stated that the government demolished the graves of al-Maqrizi and Ibn Khaldun in Sufi cemeteries in the 1990s, so the demolition strategy of historic cemeteries is not new.

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Long wait at the border between Sudan and Egypt. Credit: Hisham Allam/IPS

By Hisham Allam
CAIRO, May 25 2023 (IPS)

The conflict in Sudan is impacting the economy in Egypt, and those who make their living moving goods across the borders have spent weeks hoping the situation will normalize.

Muhammad Saqr, a truck driver, left Cairo with a load of thinners on April 13, heading to Khartoum. By the time he had arrived at the border, the battle had flared up. Saqr remained, like dozens of trucks, waiting for the borders to be reopened.

On April 15, 2023, clashes erupted in Sudan between the army led by Lieutenant General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and the Rapid Support Forces led by Lieutenant General Muhammad Hamdan Dagalo, known as “Hamidti.” According to the UN, the clashes have resulted in hundreds of deaths and displaced more than a million people, with 840,000 internally displaced while another 250,000 have crossed the borders.

Saqr was stuck at the border for 28 days.

“We began to run out of supplies, and we reassured ourselves that the situation would improve tomorrow. Twenty-eight days passed while we slept in the open. The information we received from the bus drivers transporting the displaced from Sudan to Egypt convinced us that there would be no immediate relief. We knew that if we entered Khartoum alive, we would leave in shrouds,” Saqr told IPS.

“The merchant to whom we were transferring the goods asked us to wait and not return (home), particularly because he could not pay the customs duties due to the banks’ closure.”

Muhammad Saqr at the border of Sudan and Egypt.

Eventually, they returned with the goods to Cairo, Saqr said.

Mahmoud Asaad, a driver, was stuck on the Sudanese side of the border. Due to customs papers and permits, the livestock he was transporting had already been stuck in the customs barn in Wadi Halfa, Sudan, for thirty days. Then when the conflict broke out, the cows were trapped for another thirty days.

“We used to transport shipments of animals from Sudan to Egypt regularly,” Asaad explains. The average daily transport of animals to Egypt was roughly 60 trucks laden with cows and camels. This trade has stopped, and many Sudanese importers have fled to Egypt while waiting for the conflict to end.

“Sudan is regarded as a gateway for Egyptian exports to enter the markets of the Nile Basin countries and East Africa, and the continuation of war and insecurity will reduce the volume of trade exchange between the two countries, negatively impacting the Egyptian economy, which is currently experiencing some crises,” Matta Bishai, head of the Internal Trade and Supply Committee of the Importer’s Division of the General Federation of Chambers of Commerce, told IPS.

According to Bishai, commodity prices have risen significantly in recent months as the Egyptian pound has fallen against the US dollar. He also stated that the current situation in Sudan would result in additional price increases in the coming months, particularly for commodities imported from Sudan, such as meat.

Bishai explained that while Egypt had an ample domestic meat supply, it was nevertheless reliant on imports. Importing it from other countries such as Colombia, Brazil, and Chad would take longer and be more expensive than importing it from Sudan, as land transport is more convenient and cheaper than transporting the goods by sea.

According to Bishai, Sudan is a major supplier of livestock and live meat to Egypt, supplying about 10 percent of Egypt’s requirements. Higher meat prices will put additional pressure on Egypt’s inflation rates.

“Rising commodity prices, combined with the current situation in Sudan, are expected to result in higher inflation rates in Egypt in the coming months,” said Bishai.

According to data from the General Authority for Export and Import Control on trade exchange between Egypt and the African continent during the first quarter of this year, Sudan ranked second among the top five markets receiving Egyptian exports, valued at USD 226 million.

According to Ahmed Samir, the Egyptian Minister of Trade and Industry, the volume of trade exchange between Egypt and African markets amounted to about USD 2,12 billion in the first quarter of this year, with the value of Egyptian commodity exports to the continent totaling USD 1,61 billion and Egyptian imports from the continent totaling UD 506 million.

Mohamed Al-Kilani, an economics professor and member of the Egyptian Society of Political Economy, said: “The negative consequences will be felt in the trade exchange, which has recently increased and reached USD2 billion. Egypt has attempted to expedite the import process from Sudan by expanding the road network and building a railway.”

Credit rating agency Moody’s warned that should the conflict in Sudan continue for an extended period, it would have an adverse credit impact on neighboring countries and impact multilateral development banks. Moody’s added that if the clashes in Sudan turn into a long civil war, destroying infrastructure and worsening social conditions, there will be long-term economic consequences and a decline in the quality of Sudan’s multilateral banks’ assets, as well as an increase in non-performing loans and liquidity.

As the conflict entered its sixth week, attempts at a ceasefire have failed – with both sides accusing each other of violating agreements.

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Ahmed Saber with two of his children. His son, Sabre Nasr, died when he was unable to access medical attention due to the conflict in Khartoum, Sudan.

By Hisham Allam
CAIRO, May 4 2023 (IPS)

On the first day of the Muslim holiday of Eid al-Fitr, Saber Nasr, a young Egyptian man of 20, developed a fever.

Saber, who left Egypt for Sudan to pursue his dream of becoming a dentist after his high school grades prevented him from enrolling at an Egyptian university, was unable to find medical attention even though his temperature reached a dangerous 40 degrees Celcius.

One of his friends, Ahmed, attempted to seek assistance from the nearby hospitals in Khartoum, but all of them were locked. Nasr’s father followed up on the phone, helplessly asking Ahmed to continue helping his son.

Ahmed couldn’t find transport, so he carried his friend for three kilometers to seek medical attention.

They, unfortunately, came home empty-handed. Saber passed away several hours later.

Saber was one of the 5,000 Egyptian students studying in Sudan, alongside the 10,000 citizens who work there.

Saber and his friend were caught unawares when Sudan’s army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) came into conflict on April 15, 2023. Both had been involved in the overthrow of the civilian government in 2021. The tension between the army and RSF was brought to a head following an internationally-brokered agreement to return the country to civilian rule, with the RSF refusing to join the Sudanese military. As ceasefire attempts fail, the conflict continues on the streets of Khartoum, resulting in a humanitarian crisis. The International Rescue Committee (IRC) estimates that 334,000 have been displaced within Sudan, with almost 65,000 estimated to have moved over borders as refugees.

Nasr Sayed, Saber’s father, tells IPS that his son’s friend was a hero who risked his life to provide care for his son and that when he went out to the street for the first time to buy medicine, RSF soldiers stopped him, beat him, and confiscated his money and phone, but this did not deter him from trying to save his friend.

The grieving father claims that he attempted to contact the Egyptian embassy to obtain medicine for his son before his death, to assist in transporting his body to Egypt after his death, or even to bury him in Sudan, but to no avail.

On April 31, 2023, the Egyptian Foreign Ministry announced that 6,399 citizens had been evacuated via air or land ports.

They also stated that the Egyptian Armed Forces flew 27 missions to evacuate citizens.

Mohamad El-Gharawi, an assistant administrative attaché at the Egyptian embassy in Khartoum, was killed on his way to the embassy’s headquarters to follow up on the evacuation of Egyptians in Sudan, the Egyptian Foreign Ministry reported on April 24, 2023.

Ahmed Saber Ahmed, a builder in his early 40s, relocated to Kalakla, south of Khartoum, in 2008 to work in the construction sector. He and his family remain in the city and have become targets of extensive looting, and the neighborhood they live in is a hotspot for warfare. He blames this on prison breaks during the conflict.

“My family and I are stuck here, and we are trying to manage our lives with what we can buy at double (the usual) prices,” Ahmed tells IPS. “The money thaave is frozen in the bank, and it has been shut down since the beginning of the war.” In addition, a banking app he uses is out of order.

“We are surrounded by armored vehicles on one side and weapons depots on the other, and a few kilometers away are the Sudanese Armed Forces’ central reserve stores and ammunition stores, so we can’t leave or move to search for resources, nor can we move to evacuation points announced by the Egyptian authorities.

Munir Dhaifallah is a driver who has been transporting people to the Egyptian border.

“I have three children, including a six-month-old girl who is dependent on formula,” Ahmed says. “All pharmacies had been closed since the beginning of the war, so I couldn’t get her any milk. When I considered going to the evacuation gathering points, I discovered that the drivers were demanding fees of up to USD 300 per person. I don’t even have USD 1,500 to save my family.”

“We’re trapped, broke, helpless, isolated, and patiently awaiting our destiny,” Ahmed tells IPS over the phone.

Muhyiddin Mukhtar, a young Sudanese man, decided to volunteer at South El Fasher Hospital after witnessing dozens of his neighbors being killed by gunmen on motorcycles.

Mukhtar claims that his family decided to stay because leaving would be difficult and dangerous, not to mention the high costs that his family could not afford.

“If you decide to leave, the closest place to us is Chad, and it costs USD 200 per person until we reach the crossing,” Mukhtar says. “A close friend of mine fled to Egypt with the rest of his family, where they experienced severe exploitation by drivers, and each person paid USD 600 till they reached the Arqin crossing border.”

After fighting erupted in nearby areas, Iman Aseel was forced to flee her home in Khartoum.

“When the situation worsened, my sister, aunt, and I decided to travel to Egypt,” Iman explains. “We were not required to obtain permits to enter Egypt because my aunt had three children, but my aunt’s husband had to go to the Halfa crossing to obtain the permit.”

According to Eman, who was on the train from Aswan, 800 kilometers south of Cairo, their transportation to the crossing cost 1.4 million Sudanese pounds, which they didn’t have. “So my aunt’s husband was forced to sell a large portion of his trade and crops at a low price to get the money as soon as possible.”

“We left in our clothes,” Iman, who is 18, confirms, “And as soon as the situation stabilizes, we will return to our homeland immediately.”

Munir Dhaifallah, a bus driver who transports people from Sudan to Egypt, drove Iman and her family to Aswan.

According to him, some bus owners took advantage of the situation and significantly raised their prices because of the risk and the high fuel prices.

Munir’s family has refused to leave North Kordofan.

“It was our destiny, according to my mother. If we were destined to die, it would be better if we died and were buried in our homeland,” he says.

Munir typically drives for 24 hours, then rests for two days before returning on the same route.

Prices have dropped now, according to Munir, because many people have already left, and the foreign nationals have been evacuated, leaving only the poor.

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Egypt plans to sell shares in 32 state-owned businesses, including three banks. Credit: Hisham Allam/IPS

By Hisham Allam
Cairo, Apr 6 2023 (IPS)

Egypt intends to sell shares in 32 state-owned businesses within a year, including three banks, two military-owned businesses, and numerous businesses in the energy and transportation sectors. This is part of the administration’s efforts to reduce the role of the state in the economy and attract foreign capital.

That also follows the government’s December USD 3 billion deal with the IMF to resume privatization initiatives.

The IMF approved the USD 3 billion loan to strengthen the private sector and reduce the state’s footprint in the economy.

Egypt planned to sell 23 state-owned enterprises in 2018, but the plan was postponed due to the worldwide crisis.

The Russia-Ukraine conflict has put pressure on the Egyptian economy and currency, making the proposal more urgent.

According to Rashad Abdo, head of the Egyptian Forum for Economic Studies, Egypt had already received sovereign loans from many donors, including international institutions, such as the International Monetary Fund and Gulf countries, and these parties either set harsh lending conditions or would be reluctant to lend due to increased risks.

The State Ownership Policy Plan, adopted by President Abdel-Fattah El-Sisi in December, outlines how the government would participate in the economy and how it would increase private sector involvement in public investments. Egypt wants to increase the contribution of the private sector to the nation’s economic activity from 30 percent to 65 percent within the next three years. One-quarter of these enterprises will be listed by the government within six months.

Egypt announced the offering of these companies, intending to sell them to strategic investors, specifically Gulf sovereign funds. Egypt is expected to sell enterprises worth USD 40 billion within three years, including those held by the army.

Attracting foreign investment requires strengthening the investment climate, lowering inflation rates, and expanding anti-corruption efforts, Abdo told IPS.

The State Ownership document states that 32 Egyptian state companies will be listed on the Egypt Exchange (EGX) or sold to strategic investors within a year, beginning with the current quarter and ending in the first quarter of 2024. Stakes in three significant banks, Banco du Caire, United Bank of Egypt, and Arab African International Bank, are among the scheduled transactions. Insurance, electricity, and energy companies, as well as hotels and industrial and agricultural concerns, will also be on the market. Prime Minister Moustafa Madbouly announced that the first stakes would be offered in March and a quarter by June, and more businesses could be added over the next year.

Abdo pointed out that the Monetary Fund affirmed the Egyptian government’s commitment to implementing the State Ownership Document when it agreed to grant it this loan and the Egyptian government saw it as a favorable opportunity to implement the terms of the document set by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.

Mohamed Al-Kilani, professor of economics and member of the Egyptian Society for Political Economy, said the privatization effort seeks to eliminate the dollar gap in Egypt and thus provide indirect compensation in the form of services and benefits from the International Monetary Fund’s debt.

The state would also send a message to foreign investors that it responds to the private sector and is willing to withdraw from certain sectors to benefit the private sector.

“The state is attempting to exploit this proposal to stimulate and revitalize the Egyptian Stock Exchange while taking into account the fair valuation of these companies in comparison to the global market. However, the state was unclear about the details of this offering and whether it is a long-term or short-term investment, and it has not clarified the size of employment or the percentages offered in terms of ownership and management,” Al-Kilani told IPS.

“The state is trying to create new types of foreign investment to attract foreign currency due to the fluctuation in exchange rates and high-interest rates,” Al-Kilani added.

According to external debt data published on the central bank’s website in mid-February, Egypt’s external debt fell by USD 728 million to USD 154.9 billion at the end of last September, but its foreign exchange reserves remain low, prompting renewed demand for state assets. The Russia-Ukraine conflict has further pressured the economy and local currency, prompting the proposal for new urgency.

Despite its relatively modest improvement in the latest data from the central bank at the beginning of February (USD 34.2 billion), it lost about 20 percent of the level of USD 41 billion at the end of February last year.

Last January, the IMF suggested that the volume of the financing gap in Egypt would reach about USD 17 billion over the next 46 months in light of its decline in foreign exchange resources and the high cost of its imports as one of the largest countries in the world to import its food and the first importer of wheat in the world.

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Wind and solar energy are behind a major project to transport electricity from Egypt to Greece. Credit: Hisham Allam/IPS

By Hisham Allam
Cairo, Dec 1 2022 (IPS)

As Europe braces for an unusual winter due to a global energy crisis, Greece is embarking on one of Europe’s most ambitious energy projects by connecting its electricity grid to Egypt’s.

An underwater cable will transport 3,000 MW of electricity to power up to 450,000 households from northern Egypt to Attica in Greece.

In October, the two countries agreed to construct the Mediterranean’s first undersea cable to transport electricity generated by solar and wind energy in North Africa to Europe. The project’s total length is 1373 kilometres.

The Copelouzos Group is in charge of the project, and its executives met with Egyptian leaders in October to speed up the process.

The agreement comes at a time when Greece, Cyprus, and Israel want to invest $900 million in constructing a line connecting Europe and Asia that will be the longest and deepest energy cable across the Mediterranean.

At a ceremony in Athens, Greek Energy Minister Costas Skrickas and his Egyptian counterpart Mohamed Shaker signed a memorandum of understanding on the project.

“This connection benefits Greece, Egypt, and the European Union,” Skrickas said.

He explained that the project would help to build an energy hub in the eastern Mediterranean and improve the region’s energy security.

Besides boosting the share of renewable energy sources in the energy mix and lowering greenhouse gas emissions in the energy sector, the project is anticipated to enable the export of renewable energy from Egypt to Greece in periods of high renewable energy generation and vice versa.

According to Dr Ayman Hamza, spokesman for the Ministry of Electricity, the Egyptian-Greek electrical connectivity project has significant technical, economic, environmental, and social benefits. The project aims to establish a robust interconnection network in the Eastern Mediterranean to increase the security and dependability of energy supplies, as well as to assist in the event of transmission network breakdowns, interruptions, and emergencies, and to raise the level of security of electrical supplies.

The project, scheduled to start in 2028, is a significant component of the two nations’ ongoing strategic relations and cooperation. It will speed up the development of the energy corridor by increasing the supply of electricity to Egypt and Greece while balancing energy demand, encouraging responses to the challenges of climate change, and reducing emissions, all of which will contribute to the corridor’s continued growth, Hamza told IPS.

“We have 16 memorandums of understanding related to green hydrogen,” he explained, adding that “there is a great demand from investors to invest in renewable energy, whether the sun or wind.”

“On the margins of the COP27 climate conference, it is expected that extremely major agreements on the level of green hydrogen and others, with great experience, will be signed,” Hamza elaborated.

The possibility of Egypt increasing its reliance on renewable energy, he continued, is made possible by a large number of investors pouring money into solar and wind energy. He stated that Egypt would become a regional renewable energy hub.

Egypt has electrical interconnection lines with Libya and Sudan, and we are collaborating with other African organizations to take significant steps to connect Africa and Europe through electrical interconnection. Because Africa is a major energy source, this will benefit both continents, the spokesperson continued.

According to Dr Farouk Al-Hakim, Secretary-General of the Egyptian Society of Electrical Engineers, Egypt’s export of electricity indicates a surplus, which generates a significant economic return, strengthens Egypt’s political position, and transforms Egypt into a regional energy hub, in addition to the numerous job opportunities created in operation and maintenance.

Al-Hakim told IPS that Egypt has a significant surplus due to the installation of three enormous power stations in the past several years in the administrative capital, Burullus, and Beni Suef, as well as solar plants, including the Benban facility, which is the biggest in Africa and the Middle East.

The electrical connection currently offers many benefits, he continued, particularly given that Europe, like most other nations worldwide, is experiencing an energy crisis due to the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. Therefore, it is a good idea to start with two nations that have shared a history with Egypt, such as Greece and Cyprus, he added.

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Water scarcity in the Middle East is impacting on lives and causing diplomatic tensions in between countries. The Turkish dam project, which includes the large Ataturk and Ilisu dams, has reduced water flow to the Tigris River’s natural channel impacting Syria and Iraq. Pictured here is Koctepe - a village covered by water in the Ilisu dam project. Credit: Mustafa Bilge Satkın/Climate Visuals Countdown

By Hisham Allam
Sharm El Sheikh, Nov 17 2022 (IPS)

The Middle East and North Africa are the world’s most water-scarce regions – with 11 of the 17 water-stressed countries on the globe.

According to UNICEF, nine out of 10 children live in areas with high or very high-water stress, resulting in significant consequences for their health, cognitive development, and future livelihoods.

Now climate change is resulting in less rain for agriculture and a decline in the quality of freshwater reserves due to saltwater transfer to fresh aquifers and increased pollution concentrations.

Maha Rashid, Middle East managing committee member for Blue Peace, which works for water cooperation among borders, sectors, and generations to foster peace, stability, and sustainable development, says the situation in the region is dire.

“More than 60% of this region’s population lives in areas of high or very high-water stress, compared to the global average of about 35%. While the Middle East and North Africa have continued to experience water scarcity for thousands of years, several interconnected challenges today threaten environmental sustainability and security for the region’s water supply.”

Water scarcity is expected to impact development in the Middle East. Credit: Hisham Allam/IPS

As COP27 negotiations continue at Sharm El Sheikh in Egypt, people in the Middle East are dealing with the impacts of climate change. Rashid explained that Iraq relies on water from Turkey and Iran, as well as rain and snow, to feed its rivers, especially in the spring. Water revenues to Iraq’s rivers, Tigris and Euphrates, dropped for the third season in succession. The current season has experienced a more severe and unprecedented fall not seen for several years, and water levels in the Euphrates and Tigris rivers declined, and drought conditions are experienced in the rivers and lakes in Diyala Governorate.

The Turkish dam system, which includes the large Ataturk and Ilisu dams, has reduced water flow to the Tigris River’s natural channel. It will result in a 10 billion cubic metre annual reduction in water flow for downstream countries – like Syria and Iraq.

Despite having large amounts of arable land, Iraq will not be able to achieve food and water security. Instead, over the long term, water will confine development, plans, and programs and not bring food or water security, says Rashid, who is also a professor at Tigris University, told IPS.

Water insecurity in the region had also impacted international relations, with tensions arising over Ethiopia’s building of the Renaissance Dam for irrigation and electricity generation without considering the significant effects on Egypt and Sudan. Now the threat of water scarcity is growing for the two countries, followed by food security and potential future natural disasters.

The Middle East is now experiencing rising temperatures, which is one of the effects of climate change. As a result, North Africa is now experiencing drought in some regions and torrential downpours in others.

According to Rashid, since 2010, which set new temperature records in 19 countries, many of which were Arab nations, countries are experiencing summertime temperatures of up to 54 degrees Celsius, including in Iraq and Morocco, where two-thirds of the oases have vanished as a result of decreased precipitation and increased evaporation. Saudi Arabia and Sudan are also experiencing fierce sandstorms.

These climatic changes are predicted to get worse unless the inhabitants and governments of the area deal with them properly and urgently over the course of the next fifty years.

Rashid contended that doing this calls for more prudent resource management as well as adjustments to sectoral and economic models, mindsets, and behaviours. While she is optimistic about the outcome of the climate negotiations, most countries have not committed to implementing the recommendations and reducing carbon emissions since the COP 26 climate summit in Scotland.

“I believe that COP27 will address climate change issues and, in the end, will insist on finding a method that works to save poor communities.”

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COP 27’s official Youth Envoy, Dr Omnia El Omrani, believes solid evidence will convince wealthy countries to honour their climate change financial commitments. Credit: Hisham Allam/IPS

By Hisham Allam
Cairo, Oct 27 2022 (IPS)

COP 27’s official Youth Envoy, Dr Omnia El Omrani, realised the impact of climate change in 2017, and Hurricane Irma slammed Miami.

As a doctor, she witnessed the influx of emergency patients into the hospital as a result of the hurricane, which piqued her interest in environmental and climate issues. She described it as a significant milestone in her life.

“As a result, I decided to become an activist in the areas of public health and climate change over the ensuing years. I did this by attending events as a representative of a global organisation of medical students and young doctors, starting with the COP24 Climate Change Summit in Poland in 2018 and continuing through the Glasgow Conference in Britain in 2021,” Omnia said in an interview with IPS.

El Omrani is an Egyptian plastic and reconstruction surgery resident, community leader and climate change activist. She was appointed by the President-designate of the 27th Session of the Conference of the Parties (COP27), Sameh Shoukry.

Host country Egypt has committed to empowering youth. It sees the role of the youth envoy as a way to encourage and promote youth perspectives before COP27 and throughout the negotiations and conference itself.

El Omrani sees herself as central to involving the world’s young people at COP27 to promote climate action and implementation with the critical interventions necessary for the conference’s implementation-focused strategy.

The Youth Climate Summit COY17’s most significant outcome is to develop a statement that reflects the youth’s perception of the problem – and to suggest solutions.

The youth statement’s coordination began ahead of the COY17 youth summit, and YOUNGO with working groups will review and edit a draught version in Sharm El-Sheikh from November 2–4, after which it will be sent to the COP27 president, she explained.

“The unique thing that we will do this year On the Young and Future Generations Day (November 10), we will have a roundtable discussion instead of a panel discussion at COP27. Here we will bring together high-ranking officials, negotiators, and ministers and YOUNGO to discuss the statement and (debate) how to get it implemented,” El Omrani said.

YOUNGO is the UNFCCC’s official youth constituency.

El Omrani said, “It’s exceedingly challenging to convince wealthy nations to convert pledges into actual funding, but certain approaches could help”.

These approaches include providing solid evidence on the impact of climate change. For example, Pakistan floods this year caused massive damage to the country’s economy. Small island countries share similar issues. Likewise, severe heat waves swept through Europe.

El Omrani, who is 27, has represented over 1.3 million medical students, leading their global advocacy and policy work on climate change with the UNFCCC, UNEP, and WHO, while also being engaged in climate action projects across Egypt and the world.

El Omrani was the International Federation of Medical Students’ Association’s National Public Officer, MENA Focal Point, and Liaison Officer for Public Health Issues.

She has participated in climate discussions at COP24, COP25, and COP26, environmental projects, and international climate conferences, such as the WHO Civil Society Group to Advance Climate and Health.

“I believe it is my responsibility to inform people about the significance of climate change in my community and at the institution where I work as a doctor. I also believe I must deliver these messages to decision-makers and urge them to act on this issue,” she added.

“I am now developing a curriculum to be taught at universities to increase awareness of climate change issues, not just in Egypt but also throughout Africa, in collaboration with Ain Shams University in Egypt.”

Aside from that, she participates in a wide range of charitable activities and projects coordinated by the World Health Organization, UNICEF, the European Union, the Lancet Scientific Journal, and other international groups focused on health, women’s issues, and climate change.

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Climate change is predicted to put pressure on the Nile Valley and Delta, where about 95% of Egypt's population resides. Credit: Hisham Allam/IPS

By Hisham Allam
Cairo, Oct 20 2022 (IPS)

The countdown to the UN Climate Summit COP27, which will take place in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, from November 6 to November 18, has begun.

This summit has drawn the attention of world leaders, high-ranking United Nations officials, and thousands of environmental activists worldwide.

The COP27 summit is an annual gathering of 197 countries to discuss climate change and what each country is doing to limit the impact of human activity on the climate.

About 90 heads of state have confirmed their attendance at the COP27 in Sharm El-Sheikh, according to the special representative of the Egyptian presidency.

Amr Abdel-Aziz, Director of Mitigation at Egypt’s Ministry of Environment, noted that the central theme for COP27 is implementation.

“We hope to demonstrate what that looks like in terms of mitigation and adaptation. If the summit can address the topic of implementation in all of its discussions, it will be a sign of its success,” Abdel-Aziz said.

The primary objective of COP27 is to achieve positive results in terms of emissions reduction; on the agenda is also a discussion of financing losses and damage.

“We also intend to advance the agenda to double climate adaptation financing by 2025 and reach an agreement on the unfulfilled $100 billion financial pledge from developed countries,” Abdel-Aziz told IPS.

The overarching goal is to strike a balance between all parties’ interests. The mitigation program, for example, is primarily driven by developed countries and small island developing states, which are currently experiencing severe climate change impacts.

On the other hand, emerging markets are principally accountable for adjustments, losses, and damages.

“Our goal is to achieve a balanced result that meets all of these goals and objectives,” he continued

“We wanted to cover as much of Egypt’s total emissions as possible,” Abdel-Aziz explains, “So we focused on three sectors: energy, oil and gas, and transportation. We also chose the industries that are most likely to reduce emissions.”

Abdel-Aziz says he is optimistic about meeting the goals, especially in the transport sector, which could even exceed the goals as there has been significant progress including in the area of “transportation electrification and other forms of sustainable mobility.”

The summit’s top priorities are to achieve the Paris Agreement’s goals and progress in the fight against climate change. According to scientific research, limiting global warming to 1.5°C by 2030 requires cutting emissions in half.

“Climate finance must be available for this to occur,” COY 17 Programme Leader Hossam Imam told IPS.

COY17 is an annual event organized by YOUNGO, the Official Youth Constituency of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). This year’s event will take place on the sidelines of the 27th Party Summit in Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt (COP27).

Imam will collaborate with 1,500 young people from 140 countries to draft the youth statement, which will be delivered to the presidency of the Climate Summit and discussed by high-ranking officials.

“The impact of climate change on indigenous peoples and coastal city dwellers who face flooding is one of the most pressing issues to be addressed in COY 17,” Imam said.

Environmental activist Ahmed Fathy told IPS that the most significant obstacle to developing countries achieving their climate goals is a “lack of adequate and adequate financing from developed countries. And, despite years of neglect, adaptation financing remains a top priority for developing countries. Without it, developing countries cannot combat and mitigate the effects of climate change.”

The Nile Valley and Delta, where about 95% of Egypt’s population resides, make up only 4% of the country’s natural area. Climate change is predicted to put pressure on these areas, particularly the Nile, and the region could experience more frequent droughts.

“Egypt is also one of the few nations that actually struggle with water scarcity,” Fathy added.

“Since the world faces several economic issues in addition to the energy crisis, we expect that the conference will produce workable proposals,” said Fathy, the founder of the ‘Youth Love Egypt Association,’ involved in organizing the COY17 conference and the promotion of the COP27. “We expect the summit to produce a workable charter and to be COP for actions rather than COP for pledges.”

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Mit Al Korama’s youth (left) spent five months at the warehouse waiting for the trip to Italy (Ahmed Emad is in the middle and Ibrahim Abdullah is on the left). The group (right) during their kidnapping ordeal by Libyan militias. The group were waiting for the ransom to be paid. Credit: Supplied

By Hisham Allam
Cairo, Egypt, Apr 21 2022 (IPS)

Last June, Mit Al Korama’s youth gathered in front of one of their homes on a summer evening to tell stories of citizens from the village and neighboring villages who had successfully crossed the Mediterranean to Europe.

Some, they heard, returned with a large sum of money and built European-style homes for their families. Others chose to stay in the European Union and encouraged their brothers to do so.

A young man in his thirties from Talkha named “Mohamed Fakih” was among the group, and he said he assisted many people illegally migrating to the Italian coasts.

Despite the Egyptian government’s warnings against illegal immigration and not visiting Libya, some young people continue to attempt to migrate illegally to Italy via Libya. Egyptian and Libyan smugglers put them at risk of drowning or kidnapping by gangs and armed militias demanding ransoms.

Fakih informed the Mit Al Korama youth that spots on a boat leaving for Italy in ten days were available. That spot could be theirs if they paid him 5000 US dollars.

Ahmed Emad, a 27-year-old with a diploma in tourism and hotels but no job, was one of five young people from the village keen on seeking a better life in Europe. To fund this trip to Italy, his family sold everything they owned and borrowed the rest.

Ahmed Emad’s story of a dream for riches in Europe is one experienced by many desperate youths seeking a better life. Credit: Supplied

“The mediator directed us to the Egyptian-Libyan border city of Salloum, where we met a group of smugglers who assisted us in crossing the border through mountain roads and out of sight of border guards. We arrived in Al-Masad, Libya,” Emad told IPS. “The smugglers began to treat us differently there.”

“As soon as we arrived, they pushed us into a huge building full of smuggled goods, fuel, sheep and cows, and people like us waiting for their turn to emigrate,” Emad added.

The smugglers never stopped abusing and insulting the immigrants in the warehouse. When they complained to Fakih, the mediator who had taken their money, he advised them to wait patiently until the boat arrived to take the group to their final destination.

“We were held captive in the warehouse for five and a half months, sleeping in the cow barn, drinking from empty gasoline containers, and eating only one meal per day,” Emad added.

Emad Eldanaf, his father, said they had no contact with the smugglers in Libya and were initially unable to reach the young men, making them highly anxious. Finally, contact was made.

“There were 28 men from our village on the boat. The most recent group returned in the last two weeks, and we’re still negotiating with the militia about the remaining three,” Eldanaf told IPS.

Emad’s experiences were mirrored by Ibrahim Abdullah and his younger brother Kamal.

“We moved between several warehouses between Sabratha and Zuwara – 120 km west of Tripoli. On the eve of November 9, they told us we would sail from the Ajilat coast to Italy in hours,” Abdullah told IPS.

“Eventually, we all moved to the boat, about 50 of us.”

The boat set sail at 11 pm.

“By dawn, water was seeping into the boat. We tried to drain the water until we became frustrated,” Abdullah explained. “Death was only a few feet away.”

According to Abdullah, the immigrants requested assistance from the Italian authorities, who said they would wait until the boat was closer to the Italian coast before intervening.

Tunisian authorities also ignored them. It was evident that they would sink with the boat and perish.

“We knew calling the Libyans would get us arrested, but we went ahead and did it anyway,” Abdullah said, explaining their desperation.

“At noon, Libyan militia troops captured us and transported us to Tripoli port, splitting us into two groups, one sent to Prison 55 and the other in Bir Al Ghanam prison.

Bir al-Ghanam is a town in western Libya, located south of Zawiya. It was the site of several battles during the Libyan Civil War. Anti-Gaddafi forces took control of it on August 7, 2011, just weeks before taking Tripoli.

“We were referred to as ‘the goods’ by Libyan militias. They made us wish for death to be free of this agony. My father agreed to pay the ransom for our release after I pleaded with him,” Abdullah recalls. “When the militias suspected that some families would not pay the ransom, they killed the detainees and threw their bodies in the desert. Two members of my group died and were thrown into the desert without being buried.”

Emad, Kamal, and Abdullah remained with their militia for another four months. Lice and scabies were their lieutenants the entire time. Finally, their family reached an agreement with the kidnappers, agreeing to pay US dollars 6000 for Kamal and Abdullah, while Emad’s family had to pay US dollars 5000 to free him.

Haj Riad, a Libyan smuggler, acted as the middleman in the ransom payment. The money was transferred to several Libyan bank accounts, where he distributed it to militias and transported the three young men back to the Egyptian border.

Umm Ayman, a 60-year-old mother, sold a few of her land carats to raise 150,000 Egyptian Pounds (10,000 US dollars) to assist her two sons with their travels. Two of her three sons were then kidnapped with Emad and Abdullah.

A few months later, she had to sell her house, sheep, a cow, and the rest of her belongings, to pay US dollars 13,000 to have them back.

“We sold everything we owned to allow our children to travel, and we borrowed to bring them back. Even my mother’s gold earrings had to be sold to pay the ransom,” Ayman told IPS.

“When my children returned by the end of January, they sought out Fakih, the mediator, and found he had fled with his family.”

The family believes he continues to entrap victims into the vicious circle as young people try to seek a better life in Europe.

A Son’s Desperate Plea to his Father

“I beg you, father, get us out of here; my friend Muhammad Misbah is in good health, and I was on the verge of death yesterday. Do whatever it takes to get us out of here; pay the ransom, whatever it takes. You and Ibrahim’s mother try to do anything. We are so insulted here; our bodies are weak and sick. – An audio message from Ahmed Emad to his father.

 
This article is part of a series of features from across the globe on human trafficking. IPS coverage is supported by the Airways Aviation Group.
The Global Sustainability Network ( GSN ) is pursuing the United Nations Sustainable Development Goal number 8 with a special emphasis on Goal 8.7, which “takes immediate and effective measures to eradicate forced labour, end modern slavery and human trafficking and secure the prohibition and elimination of the worst forms of child labour, including recruitment and use of child soldiers, and by 2025 end child labour in all its forms”.
The origins of the GSN come from the endeavours of the Joint Declaration of Religious Leaders signed on 2 December 2014. Religious leaders of various faiths gathered to work together “to defend the dignity and freedom of the human being against the extreme forms of the globalization of indifference, such as exploitation, forced labour, prostitution, human trafficking”.

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Egypt once again faces the prospect of a poor tourism season due to the Ukraine crisis. The region accounts for about six million tourists each year. Credit: Hisham Allam/IPS

By Hisham Allam
Cairo, Egypt, Apr 6 2022 (IPS)

Tourism to Egypt’s GDP is as vital as the Nile to its people. After Egypt’s tourism sector began to recover following the Russian plane crash in 2015. Then COVID hit, and now the Ukrainian war shot a bullet through its heart.

The protracted Russian conflict with Ukraine threatens several tourist destinations that rely on Russian visitors. Turkey, Uzbekistan, the UAE, Tajikistan, Armenia, Greece, Egypt, Kazakhstan, and Cyprus are among the top 25 countries for outbound Russian tourism by flight capacity, according to Mabrian Technologies, an intelligence platform for the tourism industry.

Egypt’s economy is also heavily reliant on tourism from Russia and Ukraine, with the two countries accounting for roughly one-third of all visitors each year. In 2015, Russia imposed a slew of punitive measures against Egypt in the tourism sector, wreaking havoc on the industry and its workers.

Due to the suspension of Russian, Ukrainian, and Belarusian flights, the decline has become very apparent recently, especially in Sharm El-Sheikh, where occupancy rates are less than 35 percent, compared to 40 to 45 percent in Hurghada, according to industry insiders.

Egypt’s Travel & Tourism sector’s contribution to the nation’s GDP fell from $32 billion (8.8%) in 2019 to $14.4 billion (3.8%) just 12 months later, in 2020.

Egypt member of parliament Hany Alassal stressed that the opening of new tourism markets would help mitigate the effects of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, which harms the global and Egyptian tourism sectors.

“Russian tourism amounted to roughly 3.2 million Russian tourists in 2015, and it was anticipated to reach approximately 400,000 Russian tourists per month before the outbreak of war, whilst Ukrainian tourism amounted to roughly 3 million Ukrainian tourists in 2021,” Alassal said.

“The impact of the Ukraine crisis on Egypt’s tourism cannot be overlooked, especially in Sharm El Sheikh and Hurghada,” Faten Ibrahim, a tour guide, told IPS.

In comparison to beach tourism, which accounts for about 90% of Egypt’s total revenue from this sector, cultural tourism accounts for less than 5% of total revenue.

“We experienced a difficult period of stagnation with the emergence of COVID-19, specifically from March 2020 to March 2021. Since then, most workers in the tourism sector have worked for half the salary,” Ibrahim says.

“I can measure the impact of the absence of Russian and Ukrainian tourism on museums and historic sites through my daily work, as the number of tourists visiting these sites has nearly halved,” she adds.

Ibrahim, who has worked in the tourism industry for 28 years, points out that the situation significantly improved in October and November of last year, but the emergence of the Omicron variant of the coronavirus in December resulted in large cancellations of reservations, so the situation worsened dramatically in January.

According to WTTC research, COVID-19 sparks a 55% collapse in the sector’s contribution to Egypt’s GDP. The travel and tourism sector is also a major employer in the country, with a workforce of 1.25 million.

In 2017, the total contribution to the GDP was 374.6 billion EGP. It was forecast to contribute approximately 601 billion EGP to the Egyptian economy by 2028.

Amr El-Kady, the head of the Egyptian Tourism Promotion Board (ETPB), says that the Egyptian authorities are assisting stranded tourists from Russia and Ukraine, either to stay safe or return to their homes, in collaboration with the private sector.

“We’re going through a difficult time, but we’re handling it impressively,” El-kady tells IPS.

“It is a powerful propaganda campaign for Egypt, emphasizing that it is not only a tourist destination but also a country that looks out for its visitors in difficult times.”

He explains that the (ETPB) is currently working to open new tourism markets, particularly in Germany, England, the Czech Republic, Italy, and Switzerland, following the lifting of travel restrictions to Egypt.

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Women are empowered to take on roles formerly played by men after going through BRAC’s Ultra-Poor Graduation Initiative (UPGI) in Egypt. Credit: Bobby Irven/BRAC

By Hisham Allam
CAIRO, Mar 24 2022 (IPS)

When Suhier Abed’s husband broke both legs after falling two floors while working in construction, the 32-year-old mother of five needed to support her family.

She joined the Bab Amal Graduation program hoping that she would replace the $100 her husband earned a month.

“I started my project with two sheep in the hopes of bettering my living situation, especially given my husband’s medical conditions. Indeed, I was successful in developing it, and within a year, the number of sheep had increased to five,” Abed told IPS.

Abed and her husband’s siblings share one house with three rooms. Each family lives in a room with two beds in the village of Al-Shamiya, Assiut Governorate, 440 km from Cairo.

The village between the Nile’s east bank and the desert is a typical upper Egyptian town, with high school dropout rates, unemployment, and high poverty levels.

BRAC’s Ultra-Poor Graduation Initiative (UPGI) works to help people lift themselves out of extreme poverty worldwide through the Graduation approach — a holistic, sequenced set of interventions developed 20 years ago designed to reach the most vulnerable people. Egypt is one area where BRAC UPGI is working, providing technical assistance on a Graduation program focused on empowering rural households in extreme poverty.

People living in extreme poverty in Egypt face significant challenges due to rising food prices, currency devaluation, and a lack of sustainable employment opportunities in a country where 32.5 percent of the population lives below the national poverty line.

In Upper Egypt, BRAC UPGI partnered with the Sawiris Foundation for Social Development (SFSD), Abdul Latif Jameel Poverty Action Lab (J-PAL), Egyptian Human Development Association (EHDA), and Giving Without Limits Association (GWLA) to launch the Bab Amal Graduation program, which works to develop sustainable livelihoods and socioeconomic resilience for the 2,400 participating households.

According to the World Bank’s household survey results for October 2019-March 2020, around 30% of the population lived below the national poverty line before the pandemic coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak.

COVID-19 is likely to have contributed to an increase in the poverty rate.

“During COVID, BRAC UPGI and its partners had to swiftly adapt their approach to meet participants’ evolving needs — like connecting participants to available public services,” Bobby Irven, Communications Manager for BRAC UPGI, told IPS.

The Bab Amal program started in late 2018 in the two poorest governorates of Egypt: Assiut and Sohag.

“As with any of our Graduation Programs, coaches and field staff are tasked with providing skills training in finance and savings, livelihood development, and ongoing coaching on health, nutrition, education, and more, to help participants carve a pathway out of extreme poverty — helping them meet their most basic needs and beyond,” Irven says.

“To ensure that participants, their families, and even entire communities can weather the storm and move onward and upward from this global crisis, program staff and coaches have put a renewed focus on ensuring that eligible program participants are connected to basic services like health clinics, schools, sanitation facilities, government social protection programs, identification cards and so on.”

BRAC UPGI is committed to combating global extreme poverty, which has increased due to the pandemic in the last two years.

“We believe that to eradicate extreme poverty, which is about so much more than a lack of income, we must invest more heavily in multifaceted approaches that address various challenges people in extreme poverty tend to face – including a lack of food, clean drinking water, regular income, savings and more. Evidence shows that BRAC’s holistic Graduation approach can enable those furthest behind to create a pathway out of the poverty trap,” Irven says.

Abed explains how her small investments grew with the help of this project.

“Following my success with the sheep fattening project, I embarked on my second personal project, handcrafting homemade household detergents and selling them to the women of my village,” Abed says.

Her husband began to recover and obtained a loan to purchase a motorcycle to help with household expenses. Her profits helped him repay a portion of the loan she took out as part of the program.

Women learn various skills including in finance and savings, livelihood development, and ongoing coaching on health, nutrition, education, and more. Through the BRAC UPGI programme women are able to lift themselves and their families out of extreme poverty. Credit: Bobby Irven/BRAC

Suhier aspires to buy a machine that produces household detergents to reduce manual labour and increase production. She also aspires to provide her five children with a good education, which she did not receive.

Another beneficiary, Ibtisam’s situation, was not much better. She began her project with three pregnant sheep in addition to the fodder. Only one sheep gave birth, and the lambs ended up dead in a few weeks, and it appeared that the project would collapse.

“Within a year, my capital declined from $700 to $500, and with the advice of my coach, I decided to sell the sheep and buy a small cow,” Ibtisam told IPS.

Before the program, she did not possess the skills or knowledge to save, especially since her husband did not bring in a steady income. “The coaches teach us to save, a culture we were completely unaware of at the time, but it has become critical in our lives, assisting us in managing our expenses and providing future savings for our children,” Ibtisam says.

Safaa Khalaf is one of the program facilitators who serves 64 families in Shamiya village, where Ibtisam and her family live.

“Once a month, I visit each family and conduct a savings session, as well as follow-up and recording of each woman’s savings and expenses. The second session concentrates on one of the life skills or topics that are important to them, such as female circumcision, early marriage, and family planning,” Safaa told IPS.

Coaches also play a critical role in building connections to financial services and savings for participants. The participants in Graduation programs are often under the assumption that, given their financial status, or lack thereof, they are ineligible to access formal, public financial services like bank accounts or loans, but it is a lack of financial literacy that is the actual roadblock.

“We assist these women in identifying the right project for them and providing the necessary information, training, and tools, such as sewing, handicrafts, and sheep fattening. We also assist their children who have dropped out of school in re-enrolling, paying for school expenses, and navigating government procedures,” Safaa says.

In the village of Al-Shamiya, dozens of successful female role models rebelled against their inherited poverty and neglect and began to turn difficult circumstances into successes. Innovation, like turning a tiny portion of their homes into a grocery store or repurposing a corner as a sewing or handicraft facility, means they can support their families and give their children the education they deserve.

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The crisis in Ukraine has put Egypt’s wheat supply in jeopardy and could impact millions who rely on subsidised bread. Credit: Abdelfatah Farag/IPS

By Hisham Allam
CAIRO, Mar 3 2022 (IPS)

Egypt is scrambling to find alternate sources of wheat after the Russian invasion of Ukraine has put supply to the country in jeopardy. This is especially urgent because the price of bread in Egypt has in the past sparked protests in the country.

Russia and Ukraine are key players in the global grain market, with their wheat exports accounting for 23% of international trade in 2021-22, according to the US Department of Agriculture.

Egypt, Lebanon, and Libya are among the MENA region’s top wheat importers from Ukraine.

In 2021, Egypt imported 6.1 million tonnes of wheat; 4.2 million came from Russia, worth $1.2 billion, representing 69.4% of total Egyptian wheat imports. Imports from Ukraine amounted to 651,400 tonnes, worth $649.4 million, accounting for 10.7% of total imports.

Over the last 50 years, the price of bread has been a politically controversial topic in Egypt, triggering various protests. A subsidised flat loaf costs 0.05 Egyptian pounds, less than one US cent.

Naguib Sawiris, the Egyptian tycoon, appealed to Egypt’s Minister of Supply on February 22 to acquire and store large quantities of wheat.

“We must purchase and stockpile wheat as quickly as possible before the Ukraine-Russia war breaks out, “Sawiris Tweeted.

Mohamed Elhady, who runs a family-owned bakery at Menoufia Governorate, 80 km north Cairo, is deeply concerned about the business he has been running for 20 years.

“The government-subsidised bread diminishes the bakery’s profit margin since we are required to sell a loaf of bread at the government-set price. But we get the cost difference through banks after calculating the number of loaves produced by each bakery using a smart ration card system,” Elhady told IPS.

“Some bakeries gather cards from ordinary residents and report fictitious sales to gain the value of subsidised bread for themselves, increasing their earnings considerably while reselling raw wheat on the informal market,” he explains.

In August 2021, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi said it was time to increase the country’s subsidised bread price, revisiting the issue for the first time since 1977, when then-president Anwar Sadat reversed a price rise in the face of riots.

“It is time for the five-piece loaf to increase in price,” Sisi said.

Elhady believes that the government will turn the president’s words into action soon, expecting that the new increase in subsidised bread will take place by April, the anticipated time for receiving wheat from the new suppliers. This will decrease daily production rates and, therefore, his profits.

“Once the wheat prices increase, the government will reduce the number of subsidised loaves from five a day to three or increase the price of the 5-piaster loaf,” Elhady says.

The president is also expected to exclude more citizens from the subsidy programme covering more than 60 million Egyptians.

“People will have to choose; to eat less or to pay more,” Elhady adds.

Egypt’s main state buying agency, the General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC), has issued a second international wheat tender to import wheat from April 13 to 26. The tender was issued 48 hours after it was cancelled because it only received a single offer of French wheat. A least two offers are required before a purchase can go ahead.

The Egyptian GASC set the end of February as a deadline to receive offers for the new tender. In addition to Russia and Ukraine, the GASC sought bids from the United States, Canada, France, Bulgaria, Australia, Poland, Germany, the United Kingdom, Romania, Serbia, Hungary, Paraguay, and Kazakhstan. The delivery needs to take place before April 1, 2022.

Despite the ongoing Russian-Ukrainian military escalation, an Egyptian ship carrying 60 tons of Ukrainian wheat has left the Ukrainian ports and is en route to Egypt, a grain consultant at the Ministry of Supply, Salah Hamza, told IPS.

“This shipment was contracted with Ukraine for $361 per ton in an international tender in December 2021. The consignment is part of a 300 000-ton wheat shipment that will arrive by March 2022.”

“Egypt produces 275 million loaves of bread per day, consumes 900,000 tonnes of wheat per month, and the strategic stock is enough for the next five months, in addition to 4 million tons expected from the domestic harvest by mid-April, “Hamza adds.

Egypt has a strategic reserve of wheat, enough to cover the local market’s needs for nine months, the Cabinet’s spokesman, Nader Saad said.

The strategic wheat stock is approximately five million tonnes, according to Saad, and will be augmented when the local wheat harvest season begins on April 15.

In February of this year, the price of an ardeb of wheat climbed by 65 percent compared with February of last year.

The US Foreign Agricultural Service expected Egypt’s wheat consumption in 2021-22 would exceed 21.3 million tonnes, up about 2.4 % from 2020-21.

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With better extension support, women farmers can increase productivity and food security in Africa. Credit: Busani Bafana/IPS

By Hisham Allam
CAIRO, Oct 17 2016 (IPS)

The Pan African Parliament (PAP) concluded its session in Egypt’s Sharm El-Sheikh Monday with initiatives on PAP’s identity, counter-terrorism challenges in the continent and joint development plans, particularly the question of food security.

The session, themed “Taking the PAP to the People of Africa” and held in Egypt for the first time, witnessed a huge turnout from an array of parliamentarians, politicians, presidents and policymakers from across Africa.

The PAP is one of the organs of the African Union (AU) and comprises five members from each of the 54 African parliaments. Established in March 2004, it is headquartered in Midrand, South Africa.

Thursday’s special session witnessed the signing of a key Memorandum of Understanding between the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and the PAP, announcing the establishment of the Pan African Parliamentary Alliance for Food Security and Nutrition (PAPA-FSN).

This agreement is part of a broad strategy to mobilise key actors in both government and civil society with the aim of ending hunger and malnutrition by 2030, a statement by PAP read.

Abdessalam Ould Ahmed, FAO Assistant-Director General and Regional Representative for the Near East and North Africa, told IPS parliamentarians play a vital role in working through existing institutions, both for capacity building and sustainability of the partnership.

According to Ahmed, PAP represents all member states of the African Union and therefore offers overall continental political support for ending hunger and malnutrition.

“This is expected to make it easier for implementation at the national level. Further, sustainable development forms part of PAP’s mandate,” he said.

According to the president of the Pan African Parliament, Roger Nkodo Dang: “Our alliance puts the battle against hunger on the right pathway, and I am convinced that FAO is the ideal partner based on its notoriety and determination.”

Another key issue in the session was the ratification of the Malabo Protocol, adopted by the AU in Equatorial Guinea in 2014.

Should 28 African countries sign and ratify the protocol, PAP will move from being just a consultative body of the African Union and become a separate legislative body for the continent. It also provides for more representation of women. Only two countries have ratified the agreement so far, Mali and Sierra Leone.

“The transformation of PAP into a legislative body will empower African countries to draft new bills to counter regional challenges—chiefly terrorism,” Dang said.

Dang also highlighted the importance of drafting new legislation to counter terrorism. “No one is safe from terrorism anymore.”

Meanwhile, a special celebration took place to mark the 150th anniversary of the first Egyptian parliament convention. President Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi said in a speech at Sharm El-Sheikh on Sunday that the parliament is a “mirror” reflecting what is happening in today’s Egypt.

He said last year’s legislative elections marked a new phase of parliamentary life in Egypt by “electing the most pluralist chamber in the country’s history,” with over 40 percent youth and 90 female MPs.

Among the other issues tackled in the session was the perils of UN sanctions imposed on Sudan.

Mahadi Ibrahim, former communication minister of Sudan, called on African parliamentarians to adopt a resolution to end those economic sanctions, in order for Sudan to enjoy the legitimate aspiration of its citizens to sustainable development.

Ibrahim noted that the sanctions, which have been imposed since 1997, have had a profound effect on all vital areas such as infrastructure, education, health and the economy. The sanctions also led to a dramatic reduction of the country’s ability to deal with epidemics such as HIV/AIDS.

Speaking to IPS, head of the African affairs committee at the Egyptian parliament and member of the African Union Hatem Bashat said that the sanctions are not “smart.”

“Some African parliamentarians suggested filing a memorandum to end sanctions on Sudan, and to send an official delegation of Arab and African parliament members to negotiate with American counterparts in this regard,” he said.

Some delegates also called for broader reform of the United Nations, in particular the Security Council.

“To meet the challenges of this new century, the UN must become more effective, more representative and more democratic,” said Ivone Soares, a member of parliament from Mozambique, in a plenary speech.

Soares said that Africa should be given two permanent seats. “The privilege of the veto enjoyed by the permanent members must be called into question,” she said.

Poor families in Egypt consider circumcision a way to preserve the chastity of girls. Credit: Amr Diab/IPS.

By Hisham Allam
CAIRO, Apr 27 2014 (IPS)

Saber Abd El-Mawgoud began his career castrating sheep and goats before moving on to humans. His first human experiment was a young boy he attempted to circumcise back in 1999 at the insistence of the boy’s father.

The boy died a few days later of infection from the operation, Mawgoud, 67, from the Al-Monofiya governorate 60 km north of Cairo, tells IPS.The practice continues even after female genital mutilation was outlawed in 2007 after an 11-year-old girl died in a private clinic while undergoing the operation.

Mawgoud says he continued to practise with a nurse as assistant for some years, before starting out on his own again.

“I used to do an average of ten operations per week, going around villages, and within a short period I became very famous,” he says. “Sometimes sheikhs would announce in mosques that I had arrived, so villagers would come and pick me up from the mosque.”

Soon he began operating mostly on girls. “After my bad experience with boys’ circumcision, I specialised in FGM [female genital mutilation] and performed thousands of operations. A few died, especially at times of epidemics.”

Mawgoud adds: “I faced legal prosecution more than once after parents filed complaints against me, but the security used to release me after I paid a fine for practising without a licence, especially because parents admitted they had agreed that I should perform the operation.”

By the year 2010, the number of operations he performed decreased after the ministry of health started a campaign warning people not to deal with quacks, and to visit doctors instead.

It was only at this stage that he discovered he had been doing these operations on girls in a wrong way. This was after a girl patient suffered heavy bleeding and was taken by her father to a hospital.

Mawgoud has no qualms, though. “Parents mutilate their children by custom, it is considered inappropriate that one leaves his son or daughter with no mutilation, otherwise they will bring disgrace to their parents when older.”

But Mawgoud did not operate on his own granddaughters, he says. He asked their mothers to take them to a hospital, fearing he might harm them.

The practice is damaging in many ways, says Dr. Naglaa El-Shabrawy, head of the obstetrics and gynaecology department at the Al-Azhar Faculty of Medicine.

“Female genital mutilation is a traditional habit of our ignorant society; it goes back to the pharaohs’ era and has no health benefits whatsoever or any religious basis in Islam,” she tells IPS. “It also has negative effects on women’s health; they suffer deadly bleeding, severe urinary retention and infections.”

The other problems are the psychological consequences, she says. “It can affect sexual relations and cause troubles that can last for life. Mutilation causes emotional apathy in women due to cutting a part of a human organ created by God.”

According to the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF), more than 125 million girls and women worldwide have undergone some form of FGM in 29 countries across Africa and the Middle East. Another 30 million girls are at risk of being cut in the next decade.

“In Egypt, overall support to female genital mutilation is declining, and the practice is slowly decreasing,” says Shabrawy. But the reported decline has been marginal. “The prevalence decreased from 76 percent in 2005 to 74 percent in 2008 for girls aged 15-17. Collective efforts are needed to accelerate and sustain progress towards the elimination of this harmful practice.”

But the practice of FGM continues even after it was outlawed in 2007 after an 11-year-old girl died in a private clinic while undergoing the operation.

The law provides for up to three years imprisonment for disfiguring the body and harming it.

An Egyptian Demographic and Health Survey conducted in 2005 indicated that poor families in rural areas in Upper Egypt are more prone to the practice.

The survey suggested that in the 15-19 age group, 80.7 percent girls had been circumcised, with the figure rising to 87.4 percent for women up to age 24.

For Abeer Masoud, 30, from Al-Monofiyah, the mutilation she had undergone ended her marriage.

“I decided not to marry again because of the physical and psychic pressure I went through, especially after my story spread through the village,” she tells IPS. “No one has proposed to me since my divorce.”

Women who have gone through the mutilation live with the consequences for life. “Female genital mutilation consists of cutting four parts in the female genital organ; one of them, the clitoris, is mainly responsible for sensation during intercourse, and this is what causes marital problems,” Shabrawy says.

“Female genital mutilation prevents sexual pleasure, and intercourse often ends with pelvic congestion, pain and vaginal discharges, besides the nervous and psychological tension.”

Violent demonstrations have followed branding of the Muslim Brotherhood a terrorist organisation. Credit: Hisham Allam/IPS.

By Hisham Allam
CAIRO, Jan 14 2014 (IPS)

As Egyptians head for a referendum Tuesday and Wednesday this week, the fate of the Muslim Brotherhood, which was swept into government in the last election, hangs in the balance.

The ruling military junta has been targeting the Muslim Brotherhood (MB) continuously since it seized power last year. Following a Dec. 23 suicide attack which targeted a police station in the city of Mansoura north of Cairo, in which 16 people were killed and dozens wounded, the Egyptian government formally designated the MB a terrorist organisation.

The government accused it of carrying out the suicide attack even though a Sinai-based militant group, Ansar Bayt al-Maqdis, claimed responsibility.“We should consider this an interim constitution because it was drafted by a non-elected committee."

“The local media are trying now to accuse the Muslim Brotherhood of being behind the terrorist attacks taking place in Egypt recently in order to disrupt the referendum, but I reject this claim unless the authorities provide real evidence to condemn them,” said Bassam al-Zarqa, vice-president of the Salafi al-Nour Party, a strongly Islamist party.

“The map of Islamist groups has not changed,” al-Zarqa, former assistant to ousted President Mohamed Morsi (2012-2013), told IPS. “Those who believe that violence is the only way to change are still involved in terrorist attacks, while other groups believe in democracy and peaceful change. The MB is in the second group, and decided decades ago to renounce violence.”

But, he added, “there is no doubt that the recent terrorist attacks undermine the popularity of the MB and make them lose a large segment of sympathisers.”

Al-Zarqa believes that the electoral process is the only solution to save Egypt from sliding into a police state. He said the key indicator will be the people’s acceptance or refusal of the next president, regardless of his background and whether or not he belongs to the military.

“I have reservations about the ways of selecting the committee that drafted the Constitution, as they dropped the will of 18 million citizens who had voted in favour of the previous Constitution. The ball is now in the court of the Egyptian people to approve or reject this Constitution.”

Amr Moussa, chairman of the 50-member committee responsible for drafting the new constitution for Egypt, has said “this constitution widens the scope of freedoms in a very impressive way, reinforces the principles of gender equality, and grants women greater rights.” He expects the constitution to pass with a 70 percent “yes” vote.

Shortly before designation of the MB as a terrorist organisation, Moussa said, “Now I invite them to participate in the referendum and prove that they are part of this nation and that they want to get out of this chaotic situation.”

Moussa, who came fifth in Egypt’s first post-revolution presidential election in June 2012, said he would not contest the next election, and expressed his support for Egypt’s military chief, Abdel-Fattah El-Sisi, if he runs.

“The groups which reject the new constitution are extremists and refuse to recognise the June 30 revolution as a popular revolt, and consequently its influence on the political life,” Gabber Nassar, professor of constitutional law at Cairo University, told IPS.

Nassar, who was a member of the Committee of 50, told IPS “the endeavours of the MB and its allies to mobilise against the new constitution will fail, especially since the Egyptians link them with the terrorist attacks that threaten the security of the state.”

Nassar believes that the MB, which is formally boycotting the referendum, will “secretly enjoin their followers to participate and vote against the constitution, because they are used to work in the dark.” He added: “I expect that the final result of the referendum will be overwhelmingly yes.”

There is little to compare between the two constitutions – the one drafted in the days of Morsi and the one drafted by the Committee of 50, Nassar said. The first, he said, was devoted to the dominance of one faction in power, while the second is focusing on liberties and the rights of the marginalised and religious minorities and the underprivileged who were ignored by all previous constitutions.

“We should consider this an interim constitution because it was drafted by a non-elected committee,” Adel Ramadan, legal advisor at the Egyptian Initiative for Personal Rights (EIPR), told IPS.

Ramadan believes that the vote on Jan. 14 and 15 will not be only on the constitution, but on the road map and the legitimacy of the current system – and a rejection of the MB.

A woman steps away from tear gas during a riot in Cairo. Credit: Hisham Allam/IPS.

By Hisham Allam
CAIRO, Dec 1 2013 (IPS)

“Subsidies from the Arab world are large and reflect Arabs’ love towards the Egyptian people, but we cannot depend on that to build an economy that can compete with other countries,” said economist Dr Alia el Mahdi.

She was explaining the economic situation in Egypt after the current government made repeated requests for financial assistance from Gulf countries.

“Our dependence on them should not exceed temporary assistance, and it should not become the mainstay of the national economy, just to gain a better international credit rating,” she added.

The credit rating agency Standard & Poor’s raised its long- and short-term foreign and local currency sovereign credit ratings for Egypt on Nov. 15, from “CCC+/C” to “B-/B” with a “stable” rating outlook.

In his short trip to the United Arab Emirates last October, Egyptian Prime Minister Hazem el-Beblawi was told by the deputy prime minister of the UAE, Sheikh Mansour Bin Zayed Al Nahyan, that “Arab support for Egypt will not last long, and Egypt should come up with innovative and unconventional solutions.”

El Mahdi, a former dean of the economics and political science faculty at Cairo University, told IPS that “The armed forces should stop funding the national economy and go back to their essential mission, which is maintaining security along the borders.”

She said foreign investment has almost fled from Egypt, as reflected by the small numbers of experts and foreign investors who attend economic conferences and seminars held in Egypt. “If we want to bring them back again, then there is no alternative other than political stability and security,” she said.

“Small industries in Egypt, which represent 87 percent of the volume of industrial plants and 13 percent of industrial production, are suffering badly,” she added.

El-Beblawi’s cabinet had a great opportunity to curb the economic decline that the government of ousted president Mohamed Morsi (2012-2013) exacerbated, “but they didn’t,” el Mahdi said.

“The current state of Egypt’s economy has become a disaster that requires immediate intervention to save it before it’s too late,” said Salah Gouda, head of the Economic Studies Centre in Cairo.

“The monetary reserves decreased from 36 billion dollars in January 2011 to 22 billion dollars by late November 2011,” he said. “Then they descended to 13.6 billion dollars by March 2013, due to a rise in imports as a result of not running at full production capacity.”

The unemployment rate has reached 15 percent, which means there are about 10 million people unemployed in this country of 84 million, Gouda said.

“Everyone was expecting a lot from Beblawi’s cabinet, who took the oath after the Jul. 3 military crackdown against Morsi,” he added. “But all the crises plaguing Egyptians while Morsi was in power still exist – gas shortages, traffic jams, lack of security – even train accidents.

“I can say that interim President Adly Mansour’s first hundred days have resembled the first 100 days of former president Morsi – both are disappointing,” Gouda told IPS.

He said the current regime frittered away public support after the Jun. 30 public uprising, in addition to 12 billion dollars in financial aid from the Gulf countries.

“Despite all this, the government’s performance was weak, with the ministries working merely to make it through the current period without being exposed to legal questions later,” he argued.

The military are now leading Egypt in many fields, especially the economy, standing by the current government to enforce law and security, and addressing any crises that arise. “The military are very keen to keep their prestige,” he added.

Another problem the current regime is facing, Gouda said, was that “after foreign investment fled as a result of the security situation, large numbers of businessmen belonging to the Muslim Brotherhood or supporters of the ousted president decided to withdraw their investments to strike an economic blow to the current system, and they succeeded to some extent.”

Ali Fayez, a former head of the Federation of Egyptian Banks, told IPS “the banking system stopped funding small and big projects, which led to hundreds of businessmen being on the black lists of banks as a result of their inability to pay some instalments.

“European and Gulf subsidies are vitamins and painkillers,” he said. “It would be better if they pumped real investments into Egypt, because the results would be more sustainable than cash payments.”

“Domestic debt has exceeded all safe limits since before the Jan. 25, 2011 revolution, and all the cabinets that have ruled since the fall of Hosni Mubarak [1981-2011] have depended on delaying and rescheduling payments,” Fayez told IPS. “None of the successive governments have tried to face it, and this is seen as a major burden for the coming generations.

“The only difference between the two governments, the Muslim Brotherhood and the current administration, is that the former was relying on aid from Qatar and Turkey while the second is depending on the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait,” Fayez said.

A solider trying to stop a protest by Muslim Brotherhood supporters in Cairo. Credit: Hisham Allam/IPS.

By Hisham Allam
CAIRO, Nov 7 2013 (IPS)

Demonstrations have been at the heart of historic upheavals in Egypt since January 2011. But a newly proposed law that seeks to regulate protests could imperil one of the biggest gains of the Arab Spring revolution here: freedom of expression.

The protest law, approved by the military-backed government Oct. 9 in the backdrop of violent protests, entails fines of up to 42,000 dollars plus imprisonment for offenders. It now awaits the assent of interim President Adly Mansour.

Its supporters say that passing a law to regulate demonstrations was necessary to prevent the country from sliding into daily chaos.“When the demonstrators are Sisi’s supporters, the protests are legal and when they are his opponents, they are a crime."

But human rights groups, Islamist parties and other opponents of the military-backed dispensation call it a huge setback for hard-won public freedoms.

“This law will arouse the anger of many revolutionary and worker groups that make their voices heard through peaceful demonstrations,” said Dr. Khaled Alam El Din, former advisor to Mohammad Morsi, Egypt’s first democratically elected president who was ousted in a military coup Jul. 3.

Morsi’s supporters see the draft law as an attempt by the Commander of the Armed Forces, Abdel-Fattah El-Sisi, to silence all voices in Egypt that condemn the coup.

“Sisi wants to pass this law to restrict freedom of expression and suppress his opponents,” El Din told IPS. “The Egyptian political elite and private media are completely tight-lipped. No one dare criticise these dictatorial policies.

“Such an oppressive law will eventually explode in the face of all those involved in passing it. If this situation continues, it will be the final nail in the coffin for the 2011 revolution, one of the biggest gains of which was freedom of expression.”

Some point out the irony of such a law in Egypt.

“Have they (those in the government) forgotten that they too came to power through demonstrations?” asked Amr Bakly, a rights activist.

It was mass protests that led to the overthrow of president Hosni Mubarak, who had been in power for nearly 30 years, in 2011. The coup against Morsi, a face of the Muslim Brotherhood that played a key role in the revolution, also came after widespread demonstrations.

“When the demonstrators are Sisi’s supporters, the protests are legal and when they are his opponents, they are a crime? This is a shame,” Bakly told IPS.

Calling it an “anti-protest law”, 17 national human rights NGOs, in a joint statement, said it is “a permission to kill” demonstrators and opponents of the military regime.

Comprising 21 articles, the proposed law requires Interior Ministry permission five days before any demonstration, and gives senior police officials the right to cancel, postpone or relocate demonstrations as well as to ban sit-ins.

According to it, demonstrators will be prohibited from gathering in certain areas, overshooting the permitted duration of the protest, exposing the public to danger, blocking roads, or causing any disturbance to traffic.

The draft law also makes it mandatory for demonstrators to maintain a minimum distance of 50 metres between the protest site and vital installations.

“(If this becomes law) people can be imprisoned and charged with treason if they take the matter to international courts,” Bakly said.

The draft law faces harsh criticism from some within the government, including Deputy Prime Minister Ziad Bahaa El Din.

Human rights activists see it as a revival of the law which Morsi’s government had tried to bring in unsuccessfully.

“Sisi’s law is worse than Morsi’s, and both were looking to empower themselves. The military seeks to set up a police state whereas the Brotherhood had been seeking a religious dictatorship,” Bakly told IPS.

Some politicians and writers, however, say the protest law will help regulate demonstrations and provide stability and security.

Since the Egyptian army deposed Morsi, thousands of his supporters have protested across the country. Many have been killed and injured. The latest flare-up occurred on Oct. 6 when 60 people were killed in clashes between supporters of the Muslim Brotherhood and the security forces.

“Opponents of the law want the country to be lost in chaos,” said Soliman Gouda, a well-known columnist. “The state must control outlaws and criminals who are disturbing public life through demonstrations.

“The Brotherhood’s demonstrations have resulted in Egyptians being denied the grace of democracy, especially after pro-Morsi protestors resorted to riots, violence and attacks on public and private enterprise,” Gouda, former editor in chief of Al-Wafd newspaper told IPS.

“Establishing rules for organising demonstrations does not mean restricting freedoms; this interpretation is completely misleading.”

Esraa Abdel Fatah, a popular internet activist, said: “Passing a law to regulate demonstrations is necessary because supporters of the previous government started using weapons and knifes in clashes with peaceful citizens, leaving dozens of people dead.”

Fatah, who was arrested in 2008 for two weeks, told IPS: “The law will not affect public freedoms if it is formulated in accordance with international conventions and under the supervision of a specialised committee of elected parliament members.

“But if it shackles the hands of people and stops them from expressing their opinions, no doubt it will end the process of freedoms in Egypt forever.”

A Syrian refugee in Cairo: fleeing Syrians have little to look forward to here. Credit: Hisham Allam/IPS.

By Hisham Allam
CAIRO, Oct 28 2013 (IPS)

Mahmoud Abu Yousef, 28, sits in one of the suburban subway stations of Egyptian capital Cairo selling socks. He had fled Syria with his wife and one-year-old child this February after his parents and three brothers were killed in the civil war that has been raging in his country since March 2011.

Yousef now lives in 6^th of October city, a refugee centre 32 km south of Cairo. “I spend the day at the subway,” he tells IPS, “and work as a security guard in the night to meet our expenses.”

The 150,000 Syrian pounds (1,000 dollars) he had on him when leaving Syria went to the smugglers promising safe destinations. But the money could not buy the freedom Yousef had hoped for.

On Jun. 15, a fortnight before he was deposed, Egyptian president Mohamed Morsi had cut off all diplomatic ties with Syria.“The situation of Syrian refugees in Egypt has reached a critical stage since the revolution of June 30."

Three weeks later, the new military government that took over imposed new, stricter rules for Syrian refugees trying to cross the border. They now needed a visa, as well as national security approval to be in Egypt.

“After the diplomatic cut-off, getting such a visa is impossible,” says Yousef.  “Given these complicated procedures, we understand that Syrians are not welcome in Egypt anymore.”

Authorities estimate the number of Syrian refugees in Egypt to be approximately 300,000. More than 115,000 people have died in the war between the forces of Syrian president Bashar al- Assad and the rebels, according to fgures provided by the UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights. Desperate Syrians have tried to flee the hell that their country has become, only to find that the outside world is often no kinder to their plight.

“I wish I had been killed in Syria rather than lead this humiliating life in Egypt,” says Amer Feras, who came to Cairo after he lost his wife and youngest daughter in the jet attack that Assad’s forces launched this January on Homs city, 161 km north of Damascus.

Feras now lives in a tiny room in a refugee building in Shebin el Koum city in Monufia Governorate, an hour’s drive north of Cairo. The building’s Egyptian owner, Tarek Marzouk, runs a drycleaning business and has offered a free room for each helpless family coming in from Syria.

It took Feras 25 days to escape from Syria with his three daughters. “I had to cross some cities on foot to reach the Turkish border,” he tells IPS. However, his nightmare hasn’t ended. “My girls can’t join government schools and I don’t have the money to put them in private schools,” he says. “We lost our properties, home, dignity and our right to live as human beings or at least as war refugees.”

The same despair echoes in the voice of Dana Gad, an 18-year-old medical student from Syria, who can now be found most days outside Cairo’s mosques asking for help. “In addition to the cancellation of some flights coming in from Syria after the new restrictions, most of our requests for accommodation are rejected, so most of us are living here illegally,” she tells IPS.

Gad came to Egypt with her mother after losing her father and brother. “My father was a jeweller who ran a store in the heart of Damascus. He died inside the store during the shelling by Assad’s forces,” she says.

“Now I’m begging in front of mosques in Egypt to support my family. I have to carry my passport to prove my identity, and sometimes I earn sympathy and assistance from the Egyptians,” she adds.

Gad also thinks they were better off under Morsi. “Under the Muslim Brotherhood, we got better treatment, free education and healthcare,” she says. “Even when Morsi decided to cut off relations with the Assad regime, we were getting proper and supportive governmental treatment.”

She blames the local Egyptian media for fostering anti-Syrian sentiment. According to her, they launched an organised campaign against Syrians, alleging that they were terrorists and had come to support the deposed Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood for money.

“Because of that,” she says, “families and individuals started to think of illegal immigration to Europe, even if it meant drowning to death.”

On Oct. 12, at least 12 Syrian and Palestinian refugees drowned as their boat sank off the Egyptian port city of Alexandria. Only a week earlier, 359 migrants had drowned after their boat capsized 120 km off the Italian island of Lampedusa.

“The situation of Syrian refugees in Egypt has reached a critical stage since the revolution of June 30,” says Abdel Karim Rehawi, head of the Syrian League for the Defence of Human Rights, referring to the Egyptian protests that led to the overthrow of Morsi.

Rehawi too says the military regime has tightened screws on Syrians after individuals were accused of being in collusion with Islamist groups and working against the state.

Because of the lack of aid and support, and struggling to find work and shelter, many of these refugees have taken to begging in public places, a humiliating fate for any people, he adds. “There is some aid from a few Egyptian families and volunteers, but no official support from the Egyptian state,” he says.

The harassment by the Egyptian security officials if they are unable to complete all the required paperwork has forced nearly 150,000 Syrian refugees in Egypt to migrate to Turkey, Lebanon and Jordan. “In addition, there are 60 Syrian detainees currently in Alexandria, arrested while trying to escape to Italy,” says Rehawi.

“Smugglers take advantage of their plight and charge up to 3,000 dollars to take them illegally in rickety boats to the Italian coast,” he adds.

As supporters of the military and followers of ousted elected president Mohamed Morsi clashed in Egypt on Oct. 6, members of the country’s 50-member committee are clashing over the drafting of a consensual constitution. Courtesy: Amro Diab

By Hisham Allam
CAIRO, Oct 7 2013 (IPS)

Bloody clashes erupted in Cairo on Sunday Oct. 6 between supporters of the military and followers of ousted elected president Mohamed Morsi as the latter protested against the July military coup that deposed their leader. But as clashes occurred on the streets, a clash of ideologies has been occurring on the country’s 50-member committee as it amends Egypt’s constitution.

Sunday’s death toll reached 50 and at least 286 people were injured, according to Dr. Ahmed Ansari, chairman of the ambulance. The Interior Ministry reported arresting 423 protesters supporting the ousted president. This is the highest death toll here since Aug. 14, when the military and police smashed two pro-Morsi sit-ins in Cairo, and hundreds were killed. “The current crisis is political, not constitutional, and the solution would have to be political as well.” -- Hossam Bahgat, director of the Egyptian Initiative for Personal Rights

Egypt stands at a critical stage in drafting a consensual constitution that could satisfy the needs of both civil and Islamic groups along with being approved by the military forces.

Hossam Bahgat, director of the Egyptian Initiative for Personal Rights, told IPS that because of the unresolved political crisis and the deep polarisation of society, “any political and social environment is significantly unsuitable for the making of a constitution through a democratic, inclusive and representative process.”

He pointed out that ironically, “we’re seeing more similarities than differences between the Brotherhood-led constitutional drafting process and the current one.”

On Jul. 8, five days after the overthrow of Morsi, interim President Adly Mansour issued a decree to form the 50-member committee and tasked it with writing a final draft of Egypt’s amended constitution.

The constitution was first drafted by a committee under Morsi’s government, which mainly consisted of Muslim Brotherhood and Islamic movements.

But louder voices from within the 50-member committee, which excludes the Muslim Bother’s party, have started demanding the drafting of a new constitution.

The only Salafi party on the committee, Al-Nour, is likely to defend the Islamic-flavoured articles in the suspended constitution, especially clauses that protect the Islamic identity of the state.

“What the Islamist-majority constituent assembly sought to do last year was to preserve all existing privileges of the military, while giving some concessions to conservative Islamists and undermining the supreme constitutional court, which had shown hostility to Brotherhood rule,” Bahgat said.

In the current constitution, army representatives have pushed for the approval of an article where the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces will be the body responsible for appointing the Defence Minister, provided that this does not affect the powers of the president.

Bahgat said the current process was as exclusionary as last year’s one, “and even more lacking [in] democratic credentials because the current committee was appointed by a president who was in turn appointed by the defence minister.”

“We’re seeing the same dynamic this time where everyone expects the military to get everything they want, while the judiciary will get preferential treatment and most Islamist provisions [will] be undone.”

Bahgat said that the new constitution will not last longer than the 2012 one as Egypt could not have a permanent constitution through a process that excludes the 20 percent of the population who support the ousted president.

“The current crisis is political, not constitutional, and the solution would have to be political as well,” he added.

Ahmed Badie, a spokesperson for the Al-Watan Salafist Party, which was founded in 2013, told IPS “the upcoming constitution will be hostile to Islam and Muslims, because the dominating ideology of the participants is to take revenge [against] Islam.”

“They will manipulate the identity of the state, which would lead to an unlawful constitution,” he said.

Badie believes that Egyptians who voted for the 2012 constitution will reject what he called an “anti-Islam, secular constitution” and that Islamists and the military coup opponents will rally together against this. He added, “[in] the end, legitimacy will remain.”

“What is built on falsehood is false.”

He explained that less than five percent of the clauses in the 2012 constitution that required amendment “but the current committee, which was formed in the dark, wants to blow up our constitution just because it was drafted by the Islamists.”

“How can we compare such a constitution under a military coup to the former one under a democratic regime? This is shameful,” Badie said.

Leftist representative on the 50 member-committee, Hussein Abdel-Razek, told IPS that many things needed to be disposed of from the Brotherhood constitution, which allows for an authoritarian state and gives priority to the interests of the ruling party over the interests of democracy.

“The difference between the two constitutions is clear, they [the Brotherhood] were establishing a religious [constitution], meanwhile we are drafting a constitution for a civil, democratic state based on citizenship and the balance of powers,” Abdel-Razek explained.

Once the constitution has been re-written, Mansour will put the amended version to a national referendum within 30 days of receiving the final draft, which is expected in a month from now. It will be effective upon public approval.

However, this time the process is more open to the public, more transparent and seems to include more rigorous debate. While the 2012 constitution was being drafted most of the agreements were made in closed rooms where the general debate was much less genuine.

Dr Saad al-Din al-Hilali, a jurisprudence professor at al-Azhar al-Sharif, one of the oldest universities in Cairo which was founded in 970, stressed that the constitution of the Muslim Brotherhood contained many clauses that enabled them to remain continuously in power for decades, and assure the supremacy of its members over the rest of the Egyptian people.

He told IPS “the constitution, which is prepared now will find great acceptance, despite the mobilisation of Islamic movements and the Muslim Brotherhood to make citizens reject it in the public referendum.”

“The maturity of Egyptians and the huge rejection of the Brotherhood, which appeared on Jun. 30, will prevent the implementation of their plan, thus the constitution will be approved popularly and legally,” he added.

He said that the constitution committee was not going to reject the Brotherhood constitution completely because it contained some basic clauses that were included in all the previous constitutions, including health and education rights. But, he added, while the Brotherhood constitution completely ignored issues of public freedoms and the principle of citizenship, it would be addressed in the current one.

The crisis is robbing Egypt of tourists, and a lifeline. Credit: Hisham Allam/IPS.

By Hisham Allam
CAIRO, Sep 2 2013 (IPS)

It is Anna Betanova’s second visit to Egypt and very different from the last time. The 26-year-old accountant from St Petersburg, Russia, is in Hurghada, the prominent resort destination on the Red Sea coast, some 400 km southeast of the capital Cairo. “The beaches are almost empty,” she told IPS, “and we spend most of the day watching TV.”

Sightseeing tours have been cancelled, she said, and they have been advised to stick to their hotel premises.

Egypt’s political unrest is taking a toll on its tourism industry, a sector that accounts for 11 percent of the country’s GDP. The North African nation had welcomed 14.7 million visitors in 2010, according to World Tourism Organisation figures, generating revenues of 12.5 billion dollars.

A year later, Egypt witnessed its Arab Spring. The people’s revolution on Jan. 25, 2011, culminated in the overthrow of president Hosni Mubarak’s 29-year authoritarian regime. On Jun. 29, 2012, the country got its first democratically-elected president, the Islamist Mohamed Morsi. And everyone thought the worst was over.“How can we expect European tourists to visit a state which imposes a curfew on its citizens?"

Tourist numbers, which had fallen to 9.5 million in 2011, recovered to 11.2 million by the end of 2012. This year too had begun on an encouraging note, according to Egyptian tourism minister Hisham Zaazou. The country had hosted five million tourists by the first half of the year, earning revenues of four billion dollars, he said.

But exactly a year after Morsi took over, Egyptians disappointed with his policies began a clamour for his ouster. Their massive protests led to Gen. Abdel Fattah El-Sisi removing the country’s fifth president in a military move on Jul. 3. There has been turmoil since, with Morsi supporters mounting massive protests and the security forces coming down heavily on them. The raid against two camps of Morsi supporters at al-Nahda Square and Rabaa al-Adawiya Mosque on Aug. 14 resulted in the loss of more than 600 lives.

Given the uncertainty, several European Union countries as well as Britain and Japan have warned their nationals not to go to Egypt, or to get out of there.

“I thought the warnings were an exaggeration,” Paul Casper, a 35-year-old tourist from Berlin, Germany, told IPS. “But as soon as I arrived at the airport and saw the armed men and tanks, I knew things were bad.” Casper has since been confined to his hotel, and feels trapped.

However, the greatest blow to Egypt came when Russia, its largest political ally, also asked its citizens to leave the country. Just last year, Egypt hosted 2.4 million Russian tourists, said Adel Zaki, head of the foreign tourism committee at the Egyptian Travel Agents Association, a non-governmental organisation.

The Russia Federal Agency for Tourism, the country’s highest tourism authority, had on Aug. 19 said that Egyptian tourist resorts would be free of their countrymen by the beginning of September.

Tourism minister Zaazou’s efforts to address the representatives of Russian media at a press conference in Hurghada a day later did little to help matters. Especially since continuing terror attacks against security forces in the Sinai region belied his claim that both Hurghada and Sharm el-Sheikh, the world-renowned Red Sea holiday destination on the southern tip of the Sinai peninsula, were relatively insulated from political events and thus safe to visit.

The fall in tourism has indeed reached critical levels. The proportion of cancelled flight bookings has increased by 40 percent, Zaki told IPS. Worse, some 50,000 tourists will be heading home soon.

Dr Ahmed Saleh, director of the historic Abu Simbel Temples in Nubia, 899 km south of Cairo, said there was only one tourist there on Aug. 31 and the revenue for the entire day, 75 dollars. The twin temples were carved out of a mountainside in the memory of pharaoh Ramses II and his queen Nefertari and relocated to a higher level in 1968 when the Aswan High Dam was built.

The woes of Egypt’s tourism industry have been compounded by events in neighbouring Syria. The alleged use of chemical weapons against civilians, including children, has the U.S. and allies contemplating a strike on its government. “The more the talk about a military strike against Syria increases, the more the recovery of tourism in Egypt becomes impossible,” Egypt’s former economy minister Sultan Abu Ali said.

“How can we expect European tourists to visit a state which imposes a curfew on its citizens?” asked Ahmed el Khadem, former chairman of the Egypt Tourism Authority. He was referring to the curfew that had been imposed on the country’s 14 governorates following the events of Aug. 14.

As he sees it, the biggest loss for tourism lies in the mass exodus of skilled labour to other professions. The Chamber of Tourist Facilities in the Red Sea, a government body, announced the closure of nearly 63 hotels and a tourist village in Hurghad.

“In previous crises,” Khadem told IPS, “we used to rely on domestic tourism to compensate for the gap.” Today, even at its best, domestic tourism would make up not more than five percent of international tourism, he said.

“Unless the political situation is resolved, there will be an economic catastrophe,” former economy minister Ali warned.

Already unemployment levels in the country have risen from 10.5 percent last year to 13.5 percent, while the rate of inflation has risen to 12 percent, Ali added. Simultaneously, the Egyptian pound has depreciated against the U.S. dollar by 15 percent, he said.

Alarmed, the country’s civil aviation ministry launched a joint initiative with the tourism ministry on Aug. 31 to stimulate domestic tourism and increase hotel occupancy rates in tourist cities. Among the measures is an integrated tourist programme which includes a plane ticket and three-night accommodation at four- or five-star hotels for 140 dollars. Earlier, domestic flights alone would cost 150 dollars.

Magdy al-Adasi, a businessman who also has interests in hotels, sees a more sinister design in the EU countries’ decision to recall their nationals from Egypt. “These are undeclared economic sanctions to force the Egyptian regime to slavishly accept EU mediation,” he said.

Businessmen are caught between two tough choices, al-Adasi said – to keep business going and lose money, or to close business and lose investment.

The ruins of the Evangelical Church in Minya that was burnt down by supporters of ousted Egyptian President Mohammed Morsi. Credit: Rimon Zaky/IPS.

By Hisham Allam
CAIRO, Aug 20 2013 (IPS)

Churches across Egypt are being attacked heavily following the brutal killing last week of supporters of deposed Egyptian President Mohammed Morsi.

The Coptic Christians rights group Maspero Youth Union estimates that as many as 38 churches have been “completely” devastated by fires across nine governorates since Aug. 14. Many others have been looted or stormed.

The attacks have been led by angry demonstrators loyal to the Muslim Brotherhood, Ishaq Ibrahim, religious rights researcher at the Egyptian Initiative for Personal Rights, told IPS. “They seek to drive a wedge between Christians and Muslims to show the world that Egypt is on the edge of collapse.” "The burning of the churches has extended to several churches of particular historical and heritage value." -- Egyptian archaeologist Dr. Monica Hanna

Christian homes and Christian-owned businesses have been attacked, Ibrahim said, and many Christians driven out of their homes and cities.

“Fifty-eight houses and 85 stores have been burnt and looted all over Egypt since black Wednesday,” he said. At least 525 Brotherhood supporters were killed and more than 2,000 reported injured in the brutal crackdown on Morsi supporters on Wednesday last week.

“The Brotherhood assumes that Christians instigated the toppling of Morsi because they have been against Shari’a,” Ibrahim said.

Six Coptic Christians, the dominant Christian sect in Egypt, have been killed, and seven have been kidnapped during the torching of churches, he said. “The Upper Egypt governorate of Minya was the scene of the worst anti-Coptic attacks; 12 churches were totally devastated.”

Muslim Brotherhood spokesperson Dr. Ahmad Aref condemned violence against Christians and the destruction of the churches, and accused military leaders of plotting these incidents to tarnish the image of the Muslim Brotherhood.

The Egyptian Coptic Church issued a statement affirming that it stands by the police and the armed forces in the face of what it called “armed violence groups” and “terrorism”.

“We have not seen such cruelty before,” Anba Makarios, bishop of the Orthodox Church in Minya, told IPS. He said Coptic Christians have been suffering for decades, and struggling to get building permits for churches.

“In less than three days the toll of burnt and looted churches exceeded 55.

“They were shouting ‘Allahu Akbar’ (God is the greatest) while burning our churches, orphanages and hospitals. They were fighting as if it was a holy war against the cross. How will people trust any religion after seeing how blood was shed in the name of god?” 

Makarios said the attackers seemed to belong to radical Islamic movements. “They believed that the church supported the overthrow of Morsi financially and spiritually, so they came to take revenge.”

But the bishop opposed some Christian pleas for foreign intervention to protect them. “Churches and Copts’ properties should be protected by the state,” Makarios said. “Christians have refused such interference despite our long suffering from religious discrimination.”

The attacks are being seen by many as a political game. The Brotherhood has been trying to attract the attention of the Western community in all sorts of ways, Fouad Badrawi, deputy chairman of the Hizbu Al-Wafd liberal party, told IPS. “The Brotherhood expected that committing religious repression against Copts would encourage the U.S. and the European Union to intervene.”

The terrorists planned these attacks at Upper Egypt, where security reinforcements could not easily be sent, Badrawi said. This strategy had weakened the efforts of the police and army, he said.

In turn Islamic groups had found the reaction of the Pope and of Christian leaders shocking, Badrawi said. Badrawi is the grandson of the late leader of the party, Fouad Serag Al-Din. Hizbu Al Wafd is a nationalist liberal political party founded in 1920. It was the most popular party in Egypt till it was dissolved after the 1952 revolution. It was revived in 1983.

Archeologists have condemned the attack on church buildings; some of them were many centuries old. “The burning of the churches has extended to several churches of particular historical and heritage value,” Egyptian archaeologist Dr. Monica Hanna told IPS.

An ancient monastery of Virgin Mary from the 4th century CE has been ruined, she said. “Thugs took advantage of the lack of security and have been digging illicitly for antiquities in the monastery of Deir Mawas in Minya governorate that was attacked and burnt by pro-Morsi supporters.”

Sinai militia carrying al-Qaeda flags head for a funeral of killed militants. Credit: Hisham Allam/IPS.

By Hisham Allam
CAIRO, Aug 17 2013 (IPS)

The violence in Cairo came amidst firm indications that Muslim Brotherhood members hit back after a brutal crackdown this week that left many hundreds dead. And the winds of retaliation have blowing in from the Sinai peninsula, the desert to the east.

Sinai has witnessed daily attacks on police stations and security checkpoints since the overthrow of Morsi Jul. 3 in response. The attacks have come amidst mass protests demanding his release from detention and reinstatement as president.

The crackdown on Muslim Brotherhood supporters in Cairo, that left the world shocked over its extent and brutality, was certain to provoke reactions – such as those that Cairo saw at several places on Friday. What is emerging are both the militant and peaceful sides to Muslim Brotherood opposition to the military regime that overthrew Morsi."As long as the military coup stays, more blood and violence will continue."

The militant front has been rising in the east. Muslim Brotherhood leader Mohammed Al Beltagy made clear statements to suggest that violence in the Sinai would end only with the reinstatement of Morsi.

Ibrahim el Mini’ai, head of the Sinai tribes union said that military head General Abdel Fatah al-Sisi is ultimately responsible for attacks on the army and police in Sinai. “Al Sisi is responsible for what Egypt suffers now from such violence, after killing peaceful demonstrators just because they were supporting legitimacy,” he said.

El-Mini’ai said Islamists in Sinai were resorting to lethal attacks because the revolution has ended and the old Hosni Mubarak regime is gradually returning. “Jihadi militants are now ready for blood sacrifice in order to apply the Islamic Shari’a, even if they have to call for foreign powers, whatever they are.”

El-Mini’ai, who is known with his strong connections with armed groups in Sinai added that “as long as the military coup stays, more blood and violence will continue.”

The brutal policies of the present regime, he said, are eliminating moderate political parties. “Only the extremists will keep going.”

In Sinai, Jihadi salafists were evidently provoked after four members of the Ansar Beit al-Maqdes linked to al-Qaeda in Sinai were killed by the military Aug. 9.

According to Egyptian officials 31 people including 10 civilians and 21 policemen and army officers were killed in militant attacks in Sinai in July. In all 157 were reported injured.

Army spokesperson Colonel Ahmed Ali told IPS that the attacks in Sinai increased after the deposition of the previous president because the political regime under Morsi refused action against radical militias in Sinai. The Morsi regime also released many radical elements involved in terrorist attacks against the Egyptian state, he said.

“The ousted president strongly enforced such militant groups and used them against state institutions,” Ali told IPS.

“There is a direct relation between the Muslim Brotherhood and such terrorist groups in Sinai as per what Mohamed al-Beltagy said. The attacks on the army and police in Sinai will stop as soon as Morsi is reinstated as president.”

He added that there are an estimated 1,000 Jihadi militants in Sinai.

Ibrahim Suliman, a salafist who is a fugitive from the death penalty, told IPS: “We will not stop the violence in the Sinai before the crisis is resolved in Cairo between the Muslim Brotherhood and the military in a political manner. If the police continue to kill Morsi supporters, this will turn Sinai into a battleground. If the military commanders do not find a solution, the whole of Egypt will be in ruins.”

Ayman Moussa “Abu Talha”, a salafist jihadi militia leader told IPS that the army leaders and the current regime had turned unlawfully against a legitimate president, and that Morsi must be brought back to the power at any cost.

“The majority in Sinai would want to apply an Islamic caliphate state of governance and consider killing for the sake of this end as a jihad,” he told IPS.

Abu Talha said that the military alliance with Israel and the Palestinian Fatah is being used against the Muslim Brotherhood of Egypt and Hamas in Gaza.

The Muslim Brotherhood has its own army of the young that will not easily be defeated. Credit: Hisham Allam/IPS

By Hisham Allam
CAIRO, Aug 15 2013 (IPS)

The youth within the Muslim Brotherhood may become very difficult to restrain following the bloody killings in Cairo, senior party members say.

Former youth leader in the Muslim Brotherhood, Haytham Abu Khalil, told IPS that the Brotherhood youth are now in a state of anger, confusion and uncertainty. Given the killing of so many, bringing the militant among them round through intellectual and religious campaigns will now be very difficult.

“The bloody attack they suffered during the sit-ins has made them see themselves as oppressed. They think they must come together to overcome this,” Khalil said.

One consequence will be a revolt against moderate leadership within the party, he said. “After passing through the current plight, the young members will overthrow the current leadership to restore community trust in the group. But I do not expect this in the near term.”“They are using the youth as a fuel for violence, and will abandon them at the first turn.” -- Political analyst Dr. Wahid Abd-al-Majid

Defections to more militant groups are expected, said Khalil who is author of the fictional book Reformist Brothers. “But it will occur in the long term, because everyone now will work to maintain the organisation. We are a complicated group and not as easy to deal with as the military thinks.”

The more immediate danger may be the forming of splinter militant groups, he said. “I do not rule out that some angry members formulate armed groups individually without reference to the leaders.”

Any move by the military to ban political parties based on religion would only drive members to radical Islamic groups who would then adopt ideas of jihadist extremism, he warned.

Dr. Amr Hashem Rabie, head of the Egyptian studies department at Al-Ahram Centre for Political and Strategic Studies, said a tendency may emerge within the group to get rid of the established principle of obedience. Such a step would create an imbalance within the Brotherhood because it would be certain to attract many of the youth.

“The young feel now they have been thrown into a bloody confrontation,” he said. “Those who reject the current leadership will abandon the Brotherhood, and either quit political work or join armed militias such as the Salafist Jihadi.”

Rabie said senior Brotherhood leaders want a political role for the party, and would not like to return to darkness again. But, he said, “the voice of neo-reformists will rise from within.”

The shape of the future of the Muslim Brotherhood itself is at stake after the massive killing in Cairo and the bloody clashes over a sit-in to demand reinstatement of Mohamed Morsi, removed by the military as president.

Many political analysts believe that the future of the Muslim Brotherhood will be determined by young people, several of whom have been taking to violence to hit back over what they see as religious persecution.

Political analyst Dr. Wahid Abd-al-Majid said the crackdown by the military is turning into a confrontation between the army and the police on one hand, and an increasingly armed Muslim Brotherhood on the other.

In the face of the bloody crackdown by the military, Abd-al-Majid pointed out that there has also been violence from an armed faction within the Muslim Brotherhood. Two divergent camps are emerging within the party, he told IPS.

“I have information that there are some senior leaders within the Brotherhood who reject the escalation method of the leading sit-in group,” he said, adding that have been instructed to not show this.

Abd-al-Majid said that some armed groups, led by young members who believe that change will come only through violence and jihad, have already emerged out of the Brotherhood, and that these were gaining strength. “They would kill for the sake of the Brotherhood and in the name of Allah and Islam.”

The Brotherhood youth has been diverging into two since the Jan. 25 revolution, Abd-al-Majid said. One side has been forming peaceful groups such as “Brothers Without Violence” and “Free Brothers”. Some have gathered around dissident Brotherhood leaders or joined political parties such as al-Wasat and Masr al-Qaweya. But these are relatively minor groups.

However, the militant Brotherhood group is more dominant, he said. They are immersed in an ideology of full obedience to party leaders – at present. Reformist leaders within the Brotherhood will now struggle to change the strategy of motivating the youth into aggressive opposition.

“They are using the youth as a fuel for violence, and will abandon them at the first turn.” The youth have not been given responsible roles inside the party. They were not represented for instance within the Shura Council, he said. This may only deepen divisions between moderate party leaders and an increasingly militant youth within the group.

A street fight in Cairo over ousted Egyptian president Mohammed Morsi. Credit: Hisham Allam/IPS.

By Hisham Allam
CAIRO, Aug 10 2013 (IPS)

Divisions are opening up within the Egyptian military over the controversial takeover from the ousted government of Muslim Brotherhood leader Mohammed Morsi, a senior party leader says.

“It is clear that there is disagreement within the armed forces, whose members have begun to realise the mistakes of Gen. Abdelfattah el-Sisi,” Dr Hamza Zoba’a, senior spokesperson for the Alhuria wal Adala (Freedom and Justice) party formed from the Muslim Brotherhood told IPS.

“El-Sisi seems to be losing support of his military partners as a result of his misconduct.”“The spectre of civil war is not far from Egypt."

Zoba’a says the army sits across a red line and should not be dragged into politics. “We do not wish to see a split within the army but we are sure that we will regain our rights.”

Party supporters will press for their rights peacefully, he said. “If the coup leaders want to kill more of us, we will not mind at all.” But while protesting peacefully, Zoba’a said, “the crimes against unarmed protesters who rejected the military coup will not be tolerated.”

Bloody clashes have become a daily scene in Egypt. Alhuria wal Adala members see themselves as victims of political genocide. “We are suffering from persecution now more than the blacks of America in the past,” Zoba’a said.

Alhuria wal Adala have meanwhile backed two political offers made to the military.

The first was launched by former prime minister Hisham Qandil proposing release of Morsi on one side, and an end to demonstrations on the other. The second was a five-step plan presented by Islamist thinker and former presidential candidate Mohamed Selim El-Awa.

The first of these steps would be for Morsi to delegate powers to a new interim cabinet. The cabinet would hold parliamentary elections within the following 60 days, leading to a proper cabinet. The fourth step would be a presidential election and finally then a review of the constitution.

The Brotherhood claims come across a deep political divide. Other leaders deny a split within the army, and see the change as a step towards democracy that would take Egypt past what were emerging as Morsi’s increasingly autocratic ways. “The Egyptian people rescued themselves at the proper time,” Abdel Ghaffar Shukr, head of the Socialist People’s Alliance Party tells IPS.

The solution to the crisis, he says, lies in implementation of the roadmap announced by the army, with a new constitution eliminating the articles that would turn Egypt into a religious state. “The Muslim Brotherhood should recognise the fait accompli. They isolate themselves and refuse to sit at the negotiations table and reconciliation sessions, then complain to the west of persecution.”

The Muslim Brotherhood, Shukr said, was “sacrificing their supporters” in armed clashes to gain the sympathy of the West. Party members are also attacking military installations and cutting off roads, he said.

“The spectre of civil war is not far from Egypt. If the security vacuum in Sinai is not handled wisely and quickly, terrorism hotbeds and Jihadists would move to Cairo, which would lead to infighting and public division.”

Human rights activist Amr Hamzawy says the Muslim Brotherhood failed to bring the transition to democracy in its year in power. It sought to control the state and to dominate political life, he said. “The Muslim Brotherhood group must move completely away from political action.”

The Brotherhood and its allies to the religious right were condemning human rights violations against them, but refusing to apologise for violations from their side. “They must submit the instigators of such violence to trial. It is the only way to make people trust their intentions.”

On the other hand, he said, the liberal parties were now turning a blind eye to human rights abuses against supporters of the ousted president. “Liberals seem tight-lipped in front of the fascist exclusion of the Muslim Brotherhood. The double standards of these political powers are now exposed. Liberals must restore their belief in democracy and cease immediately the absolute support of the army, so long as the Muslim Brotherhood leaders can acknowledge their mistakes.”

An anti-Morsi protest in August 2012, almost a year before the former president's ouster. Credit: Gigi Ibrahim/CC by 2.0

By Hisham Allam
CAIRO, Jul 21 2013 (IPS)

The events of Jun. 30 have split Egyptians into two categories. For those in the first, what happened that day was an army-supported public uprising to fulfill the objectives of the revolution of Jan. 25, 2011 and topple a president who broke promises and worked only to benefit his own group, the Muslim Brotherhood.

The second category sees the events as a military coup planned in advance, a crisis orchestrated by army leaders and Egyptian intelligence to provoke citizens’ wrath against a democratically elected president and give them reason to oust him and seize power.

As the situation continues to unfold in Egypt, the events of that day have become even more divisive as protests supporting or decrying varying sides take place throughout the streets of Cairo and analysts and experts offer a variety of explanations for Morsi’s ouster.

According to Muhamed Omara, a member of the Salafist Nour Party and Egypt’s Constituent Assembly, the Egyptian opposition has long called for democracy, and so whomever Egyptians elected as their leader should be respected and given the chance to lead.

The behaviour of the liberal opposition toward the military coup was completely disgraceful, according to Omara, and ousting the legal president, Mohamed Morsi, could not be defined as democratic, he added.

Omara, who is also a professor at Egypt’s Al-Azhar University, believed that the liberal opposition refused to accept Morsi’s initiatives to cooperate in building a new Egyptian state and instead described him as a non-democratic president, even as they saw their alliance with the army to oust him as a democratic move.

Ultimately, Omara concluded, the elected president was betrayed.

A smart plot

Hisham al-Husseiny, a pro-Morsi business man, believes that what happened on Jun. 30 was premeditated and that the leaders of the armed forces had long been waiting for an opportunity for a coup against Morsi.

Army leaders and Egyptian intelligence masterminded the crises in fuel, electricity and traffic and created a deficit to incite people to protest and demand Morsi’s departure, Al-Husseiny believed.

Meanwhile, although people were angry, Morsi made decisions against his own interests, and so people lost sympathy for him , al-Husseiny said. He expected that the Muslim Brotherhood would not participate in the political arena again soon until it received a guarantee that election results would be implemented and protected.

No longer legitimate

Mohamed Abu Hamed, the former vice chairman of the Free Egyptians Party, which was founded after the 2011 revolution and supports a liberal, democratic and secular political order in post-Mubarak Egypt, said Morsi ignored public sentiment when Egyptians called for early elections, so the Brotherhood president had to be overthrown by force.

Abu Hamed told IPS that Morsi began losing legitimacy when he issued a constitutional declaration to expand his authority, mistakenly thinking that such a move would shield him from criticism from the opposition and prevent the legal repealing of his decrees.

On Nov. 22, 2012, Morsi announced that the president was authorised to take any measures he saw fit in order to preserve and safeguard the revolution, national unity or national security. According to the decree, all constitutional declarations, laws and decrees made since Morsi assumed power could not be appealed or cancelled by any individual or political or governmental body until the ratification of a new constitution and the election of a new parliament.

Abu Hamed, a former member of the post-revolutionary People’s Assembly said that the president’s actions left the public and the military with little choice. After millions took to the streets, the army had to support the people, he added.

Tarek Zidan, head of Egypt’s Revolution Party (Hizb Thawret Masr), founded after the January 2011 revolution and consisting of 11 political coalitions and movements with moderate religious backgrounds, told IPS that democracy does not mean simply a ballot box.

Rather, democracy is the promises and pledges made by the nominated candidate to voters, he said. If these promises are not carried out in the agreed amount of time, voters have the right to withdraw the candidate in a revolutionary form of democracy.

The concept of democracy, according to Zidan, means popular sovereignty. The people are the source of authority, and so laws and the constitution lose legitimacy in the face of public revolutions. Accordingly, the people alone are the main source of authority, not the ballot box, as claimed by Morsi supporters, Zidan said.

What happened on Jun. 30 was a real revolution, supported by the army, where millions demanded the departure of Morsi and his group, Zidan maintained. It was not a military coup but democracy in its loftiest sense where the army listened to people and established a revolutionary democracy, without gaining for itself, he insisted.

Demonstrators in Tahrir Square celebrating the ouster of former President Mohamed Morsi. Credit: Hisham Allam/IPS

By Hisham Allam
CAIRO, Jul 5 2013 (IPS)

In less than three days, Egypt moved from being under the rule of religious Islamists to being in different civilian hands as well as military ones. Mohamed Morsi, Egypt’s first democratically elected president, was overthrown by the army on Wednesday after massive nationwide protests calling for his removal on the first anniversary of his election to power.

The powerful military issued a 48-hour deadline on Monday for Morsi to meet the “people’s demands”, a day after millions of protesters took to the streets across the troubled country calling for him to resign.

The position of the United States towards its allies in Egypt (the Muslim Brotherhood) was critical. U.S. President Barack Obama declared that Washington would review the implications for U.S. foreign assistance programmes to Egypt, as an estimated 20 percent of Egypt’s military budget is provided by the United States.

Obama stopped short of calling the events a coup, however, while Egyptians see the change as a public movement that completes the revolution of Jan. 25, 2011, which was supported by the army.

Less than 15 hours after the minister of defence, Field Marshal Abdel Fatah al-Sisi, declared the road map for the transitional period, he announced that Egypt’s constitution had been suspended and gave power to the head of the Supreme Court, Adly Mansour, naming him interim president of the republic for six months, according to the 1971 constitution.

Several changes occurred in different sectors after Morsi’s fall. The stock exchange rose 7.5 percent, progress unseen since 2010. Financial shares did not decrease until the end of the day – also an unprecedented achievement in the history of the Egyptian stock exchange. Mohsen Adel, an economic analyst, told IPS he was expecting a continuous rise in banking sector indicators as well.

On a regional scale, the events of Jul. 3 helped Egypt to maintain its leading role in the Arab world and renew relations with a number of Arab countries.

Qatar, the strongest supporter of former president Morsi, announced on Al Jazeera television that it would support Egypt in its role as the leader of the Arab and Islamic world. The new emir of Qatar, Tamim ben Hamad, sent his congratulations to the new president and the Egyptian people.

Both Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates announced they would supply Egypt with funding and oil as the situation progresses. Relations between Egypt and the United Arab Emirates were tense after the UAE arrested a terrorist cell that included elements belonging to the Muslim Brotherhood. The UAE government refused to release them, leading Muslim Brotherhood leaders to attack and insult UAE rulers.

On Jun. 17, Esam Al-Eryan, vice president of the Freedom and Justice Party, the political arm of the Muslim Brotherhood, attacked the Emirati government at Al Shura council, asking the Egyptian ambassador to deliver the message, “Emirati people are ignorant with disgraceful behaviour, and the Iranian nuclear power coming to invade you and will turn your people to slaves.”

“The map of Egyptian relations with many neighbouring countries will witness a huge change in the near future,” Emad Gad, the director of al-Ahram Institute for Strategic and Political Studies, told IPS.

Gad asserted that relations with the United States might be tense in the current situation because of the country’s support for Morsi and the Brotherhood. Strategic relations between the two countries are deeply rooted, and if the United States continues pressuring Egypt by threatening to reduce or halt military aid, Egypt’s relations with Russia and China could shift as a result.

Such a change would be a major danger for the United States because Egypt’s source of military arms would shift to Russia, which would threaten both U.S. control over the Egyptian army and U.S. national security.

Egypt’s tensions with Syria will calm down, and Egypt may not make any hostile decisions against the regime of Bashar Al-Assad regime, Gad continued, though the new government would not be involved in supporting the current regime for fear it would undermine the Syrian people or induce the disapproval of the international community.

“Egypt and Russia will witness a new stage of successful cooperation in the near future, and I think there could be cooperation on  different levels between the two countries,” Gad said, due to Russia’s support for the Egyptian revolution since the events of Jun. 30.

“From the beginning of the deep changes in the Middle East we have declared support for lawful aspirations of the Egyptian people for a better life with freedom and democratic renewal. Russia’s position remains invariable and principled,” the Russian foreign ministry said in a statement on Thursday.

Egyptians saw the rapid arrest of the leaders of the Muslim Brotherhood not as a military coup but as precautionary steps to prevent the Brotherhood from directing their angry supporters in the streets towards bloody violence, especially since the country had witnessed acts of sabotage leading to dozens of deaths and hundreds of injuries before the ouster of the former president.

In his last speech, Morsi tried to perform as a self-confident legal president, alluding that any move against him would be a coup against legitimacy.

Meanwhile Ahmed Badie, a spokesman for al-Watan Salafist Party, founded in 2013, told IPS, “You cannot shun the [Islamist] project because of the strength of their parties and the [Islamist] powers in the Egyptian street. It will be very hard to keep them away from the political scene for their large numbers and their political contribution.”

Badie believed that the fall of the Muslim Brotherhood was natural given its accumulated mistakes and refusal to listen to suggestions given to them by his party. The failure of the experience of the Muslim Brotherhood does not mean that other Islamist political parties would abandon the target of establishing an Islamic state but demonstrates how difficult such an achievement would be.

The roadmap currently being drawn by Islamist parties will be to ensure the safety of the members of the different parties. This will be trying to ensure that the police will not return to their previous violence or strict practises against Islamists, such as forcing them to shave their beards, Badie said.

He expressed fear that the new regime would forbid Islamists from creating political parties and thus hinder their Islamist project, noting that the arrest of several leaders of the Muslim Brotherhood was evident in trying to give the military coup a public cover.

Mokhtar Nouh, the former leader of the Muslim Brotherhood told IPS, “The [Islamist] project does not fall with groups or individuals; previously under Nasser, it was thought that it fell, but Omar el-Telmessany [the Muslim Brotherhood’s third Supreme Guide] managed to bring it back to the political scene since 1990, even under the exclusion of the Mubarak regime.”