A young Syrian girl sits on a broken chair by her tent in Faida 3 camp, an informal tented settlement for Syria refugees in Bekaa Valley, Lebanon. Credit: UNICEF/Alessio Romenzi

By Baher Kamal
MADRID, Jan 12 2016 (IPS)

Few months ago, an unprecedented “humanitarian auction” was opened in Brussels at the European Commission, shortly after watching the image of the three-year old Syrian child that the sea threw up on the Turkish shores. The “auction” was about deciding upon the number of Syrian refugees to be hosted by each EU country. Germany won the largest batch.

Before taking a final decision, some less rich European countries, like Spain, rushed to argue: “We are trying to get out of the crisis; we have a much too high percentage of unemployed people; also a huge public deficit…,” Spanish authorities, for instance, would try to explain their reluctance, with a more diplomatic wording.

The EU decision was also subject to a wave of political controversies. Some conservative political leaders, like Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, would strongly alert against this “tsunami” of Muslims threatening to attack “our Christian civilisation”. And some figures, like US multimillionaire Republican pre-electoral runner Donald Trump, would even call for prohibiting the entry to the US of all Muslims.

Labour Factor

Meanwhile, labour market experts would argue that the so-called “natural selection” process would solve the problem –i.e, that the market forces would hire those skilled refugees as non-expensive manpower, while the non-skilled ones would necessarily end up as undocumented, illegal migrants, therefore easy to repatriate.

But such an argument has never been enough to calm the panic that several politicians and many media outlets induced among European ordinary people.

Another factor these experts take into account is the fact that the European population is steadily ageing, without the needed demographic replacement, a problem that is translated in more pension takers and less tax payers to replenish the retirement budget.

All this, of course, comes aside of Europe’s humanitarian convictions, those that moved the EU to act in view of the massive arrival of refugees.

It was when the EU, led by Germany, decided to offer economic assistance to less rich “reception” countries (6,000 euro per refugee) that the most reluctant ones accepted the deal. This way, Spain, which agreed to host 14,000-16,000 refugees, hailed some weeks ago the arrival of the first 14!

Big Hell

Meanwhile, the mainstream media disseminated tens of dramatic footage and tragic stories about those kilometres-long barbed-wire barriers built by some East European states; the “Calais jungle” in France; the hundreds of refugees stranded at frontiers; the arrival of cold winter, or the daily death of tens of human beings on Greek shores.

Then came the brutal, inhuman, execrable killing of French civilians on 13 November 2015 by Jihadist Islamist terrorists; the immediately previous attacks against unarmed population in Lebanon, and the even previous ones in Tunisia, and, later on, the horrible New Year’s eve assaults in Cologne, Germany, not to mention the daily murdering of innocent people in Egypt, Iraq and Syria, among others.

This created serious problems at home for several European rulers, like German Chancellor Angela Merkel, apart from feeding more fears among European citizens.

A Turkish Warehouse

All of a sudden, a “solution” was found: the EU asked Turkey to keep the Syrian refugees in its territory or at its borders, preventing them from passing to Europe, against the payment of 3,000 million euro and the promise to unfreeze the deadlocked process of negotiations with Ankara for its potential integration in the European club.

In other words: to transform Turkey in a “storage room” or “warehouse” of Syrian refugees, until…

Facts

Meanwhile, it would be necessary to recall some facts:

The current number of Syrian refugees exceeds 4,5 million – according to the United Nations refugee agency, (UNHCR); This figure does not include the around 7,5 million internally displaced persons, i.e. refugees at home. The total would make over 50 per cent of the Syrian population (23 million.)

The number of Syrian refugees “auctioned” in Europe would represent barely one fifth of their total.

The number of Syrian refugees to be effectively allowed to stay in Europe is expected to come down to less than 15 per cent of those 4.5 million plus.

The remaining ones. i.e, 85 per cent of the 4.7 million Syrian refugees are currently spread out in the Middle East, Arab, poor and/or troubled countries, like Lebanon (with more than one million refugees, representing one fifth of its total population); unstable Iraq, and Jordan, where the Za’atri camp now represents the fourth most populated “city”;

The largest portion of humanitarian aid and assistance comes either from a short-funded UN agencies or civil society organisations.

That the Europeans themselves were also refugees during and after World War II, with numbers that exceeded those of Syrian refugees;

UNICEF’s humanitarian work began in the aftermath of World War II — and by the mid 1950’s millions of European children were receiving aid. Seventy years later, refugees and migrants are entering Europe at levels not seen since World War II. Nearly 1 in 4 are children.

And Now What?

What to do now with the total of 4,5 million Syrian refugees?
The five biggest military powers on Earth (US, UK, France, Russia and China), on 18 December 2015 adopted United Nations Security Council’s Resolution 2254 (2015) endorsing a “road map” for peace process in Syria, and even setting a timetable for UN-facilitated talks between the Bashar al Assad regime and “opposition” groups.
The whole thing moved so rapidly that the United Nations Special Envoy for Syria, Staffan de Mistura, has already set the 25 January 2016 as the target date to begin talks between the parties.

The “road map” talks about many things, including the organisation of “free and fair” elections in 18-months time.

No explicit mention, however, to the fate of the 13 millions of refugees and displaced at home Syrians who do not know what to do or where to go.

(End)

By Emma Bonino
ROME, Dec 31 2015 (IPS)

The appalling crisis ravaging the Middle East and striking terror around the world is a clear challenge to the West, but responses are uncoordinated. This is due on the one hand to divergent analyses of the situation, and on the other to conflicting interests.

Emma Bonino

The West has historic alliances with the Gulf area, but apparently nothing has been learned from the 3,000 deaths caused by the attack on the Twin Towers in New York. Turkey plays by its own rules, while Russia does not hesitate to resort to any means to recover its position on the global stage, and is only now showing concern about the so-called foreign combatants that Turkey is allowing into Syria. In truth, there is very little common ground.

Consequently, all reactions are inadequate, including the bombing of territory occupied by the Islamic State – whether motivated by emotion or based on reason with an eye to the next elections – by countries like France or the United Kingdom, which wants to demonstrate in this way to the rest of Europe that it is an indispensable part of the EU. Bombings take place, only to be followed by public recognition that aerial strikes are insufficient because there are no more targets to be hit from the sky without guidance from troops on the ground.

The fact is that while the impossibility of achieving victory by air attacks alone is repeated like a mantra, the bombings continue. At the same time, every Arab medium complains daily that these are acts of war waged, once again, by the West against the Arab world.

Doubtless for this reason, the British government has not only increased its military budget but also given the BBC more funding for Arabic language services. The battle in hand is above all a cultural one; arguments are needed over the medium and long term, in addition to attempts at overcoming the contradictions.

The first step is to admit that there is no magical solution; only partial and complex solutions exist. The first measure must be to oblige Sunni Muslims, the Gulf monarchies and the Muslim Brotherhood – the sources of funds and material support for Islamic State combatants – to assume responsibility for their roles. Secondly, we in Europe must take serious measures to address our own shortcomings, by reinforcing our security.

EU counter-terrorism coordinator Gilles de Kerchove recently appealed for an agreement to unify the intelligence services of European countries, to no avail. European governments do not want a common intelligence service, they do not want a common defence system, and they do not want a common foreign policy. Some are only willing to commit their air forces to the fray.

In the meantime, we lurch from one emergency to another, managing only to agree on improvised, temporary measures. For instance, now we have forgotten all about the immigrants, as if they had ceased to exist. Vision is lacking, not only for the long term but even for the medium term.

Now European governments are focused on Syria, leaving aside the conflicts in Libya and Yemen, and are not giving needed help to our Mediterranean neighbours threatened by serious crises: Tunisia, Morocco and Jordan. Lately, oil facilities in the Islamic State are being bombed and the tanker trucks used for black market oil exports are being attacked. As is well known, during the first Gulf War bombing of oil wells brought about an ecological disaster and history is repeating itself in the territories occupied by the Islamic State. Meanwhile the attacks on ground transport are blocking supplies of provisions to Syria, where food is already scarce.

For its part, Italy has done well in choosing not to participate in military interventions that risk being counterproductive and that no one believes are effective, as shown by other scenarios from Afghanistan to the Lebanon. But this does not exempt Italy from making greater efforts toward a common European intelligence service and a broader and more efficacious immigration policy.

In a nutshell: the European Union should formulate and apply its own foreign policy in line with its own interests and reality, and dispense with the policies of the United States, Russia, or other powers.

Translated by Valerie Dee

Excerpt:

Moroccan security forces charge against a group of Sahrawi women in Laayoune, occupied Western Sahara. Credit: Courtesy of Equipe Media

By Karlos Zurutuza
LAAYOUNE, Occupied Western Sahara, Aug 23 2015 (IPS)

Ahmed Ettanji is looking for a flat in downtown Laayoune, a city 1,100 km south of Rabat. He only wants it for one day but it must have a rooftop terrace overlooking the square that will host the next pro-Sahrawi demonstration.

“Rooftop terraces are essential for us as they are the only places from which we can get a graphic testimony of the brutality we suffer from the Moroccan police,” Ettanji told IPS. This 26-year-old is one the leaders of the Equipe Media, a group of Sahrawi volunteers struggling to break the media blackout enforced by Rabat over the territory.

Ahmed Ettanji and a fellow Equipe Media activist edit video taken at a pro-independence demonstration in Laayoune, occupied Western Sahara. Credit: Karlos Zurutuza/IPS

“There are no news agencies based here and foreign journalists are denied access, and even deported if caught inside,” stressed Ettanji.

Spanish journalist Luís de Vega is one of several foreign journalists who can confirm the activist´s claim – he was expelled in 2010 after spending eight years based in Rabat and declared persona non grata by the Moroccan authorities.

“The Western Sahara issue is among the most sensitive issues for journalists in Morocco. Those of us who dare to tackle it inevitably face the consequences,” de Vega told IPS over the phone, adding that he was “fully convinced” that his was an exemplary punishment because he was the foreign correspondent who had spent more time in Morocco.

“The Western Sahara issue is among the most sensitive issues for journalists in Morocco. Those of us who dare to tackle it inevitably face the consequences” – Spanish journalist Luís de Vega
This year will mark four decades since this territory the size of Britain was annexed by Morocco after Spain pulled out from its last colony of Western Sahara.

Since the ceasefire signed in 1991 between Morocco and the Polisario Front – the authority that the United Nations recognises as a legitimate representative of the Sahrawi people – Rabat has controlled almost the whole territory, including the entire Atlantic coast. The United Nations still labels Western Sahara as a “territory under an unfinished process of decolonisation”.

Mohamed Mayara, also a member of Equipe Media, is helping Ettanji to find the rooftop terrace. Like most his colleagues, he acknowledges having been arrested and tortured several times. The constant harassment, however, has not prevented him from working enthusiastically, although he admits that there are other limitations than those dealing with any underground activity:

“We set up the first group in 2009 but a majority of us are working on pure instinct. We have no training in media so we are learning journalism on the spot,” said Mayara, a Sahrawi born in the year of the invasion who writes reports and press releases in English and French. His father disappeared in the hands of the Moroccan army two months after he was born, and he says he has known nothing about him ever since.

Sustained crackdown

Today the majority of the Sahrawis live in the refugee camps in Tindouf, in Western Algeria. The members of Equipe Media say they have a “fluid communication” with the Polisario authorities based there. Other than sharing all the material they gather, they also work side by side with Hayat Khatari, the only reporter currently working openly for SADR TV. SADR stands for ‘Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic’.

Hayat Khatari, the only reporter currently working openly for SADR TV in Laayoune. Credit: Karlos Zurutuza/IPS

Khatari, a 24-year-old journalist, recalls that she started working in 2010, after the Gdeim Izzik protest camp incidents in Laayoune. Originally a peaceful protest camp, Gdeim Izzik resulted in riots that spread to other Sahrawi cities when it was forcefully dismantled after 28 days on Nov. 8.

Western analysts such as Noam Chomsky have argued that the so-called “Arab Spring” did not start in Tunisia as is commonly argued, but rather in Laayoune.

“We have to work really hard and risk a lot to be able to counterbalance the propaganda spread by Rabat about everything happening here,” Khatari told IPS. The young activist added that she was last arrested in December 2014 for covering a pro-independence demonstration in June 2014. Unlike Mahmood al Lhaissan, her predecessor in SADR TV, Khatari was released after a few days in prison.

In a report released in March, Reporters Without Borders records al Lhaissan´s case. The activist was released provisionally on Feb. 25, eight months after his arrest in Laayoune, but he is still facing trial on charges of participating in an “armed gathering,” obstructing a public thoroughfare, attacking officials while they were on duty, and damaging public property.

In the same report, Reporters Without Borders also denounces the deportation in February of French journalists Jean-Louis Perez and Pierre Chautard, who were reporting for France 3 on the economic and social situation in Morocco.

Before seizing their video recordings and putting them on a flight to Paris, the authorities arrested them at the headquarters of Moroccan Association of Human Rights (AMDH), one of the country’s leading human rights NGOs, which the interior ministry has accused of “undermining the actions of the security forces”.

Likewise, other major organisations such as Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch have repeatedly denounced human rights abuses suffered by the Sahrawi people at the hands of Morocco over the last decades.

Despite several phone calls and e-mails, the Moroccan authorities did not respond to IPS’s requests for comments on these and other human rights violations allegedly committed in Western Sahara.

Back in downtown Laayoune, Equipe Media activists seemed to have found what they were looking for. The owner of the central apartment is a Sahrawi family. It could have not been otherwise.

“We would never ask a Moroccan such a thing,” said Ettanji from the rooftop terrace overlooking the spot where the upcoming protest would take place.

Edited by Phil Harris   

By Lydia Alpízar Durán
SAO PAULO, Apr 2 2015 (IPS)

When you are faced with the task of moving an object but find it is too heavy to lift, what is your immediate and most natural response? You ask someone to help you lift it. And it makes all the difference.

And so in the face of unprecedented economic, ecological and human rights crises, we should not hunker down in our silos, but rather join together and use our collective power to overcome the challenges.

The recent World Social Forum (WSF) in Tunis, showed that ‘Another World Is Possible’ if we work collectively to address the structural causes of inequality.

It is for this reason that the Association for Women’s Rights in Development (AWID) has pledged to work together with ActionAid, Civicus, Greenpeace and Oxfam.

The gathering of approximately 70,000 activists in Tunis, the various workshops held on alternate economic models – including an AWID-led session on ‘Feminist Imaginations for a Just Economy’ – the protests against shrinking spaces for dissent and the calls for social justice are critical in a world where the economic, ecological and human rights crises are interconnected and getting worse.

This is the power of the World Social Forum (WSF). This 13^th edition, held for the second time in Tunisia’s capital, Tunis, is a reminder, and a call to action that it is people power that will change the world.

Changing the world, especially where women’s rights and gender justice is concerned, means recognising and bringing visibility to the interrelatedness of issues.

While in the past 20 years there have been notable achievements for women’s rights and gender justice, there is still so much more to be done.

At the centre of the current global crisis is massive economic inequality that has become the global status quo. Some 1.2 billion impoverished people account for only one percent of world consumption while the million richest consume 72 percent.

The levels of consumption in the global North cannot be sustained on this planet by its peoples or the Earth itself. They are disappearing whole ecosystems and displacing people and communities.

The challenges are not only increasing, but also deepening. Many women and girls, trans and intersex people continue to experience multiple and intersecting forms of discrimination and vulnerability throughout their lives.

These include the disproportionate impact of poverty, religious fundamentalisms and violence on women, growing criminal networks and the increasing power of transnational corporations over lands and territories, deepening conflicts and militarisation, widespread gender-based violence, and environmental destruction.

Women have been caretakers of the environment and food producers for centuries, and are now at the forefront of its defense against habitat destruction and resource extraction by corporations.

Violence against women who defend the earth occurs with impunity, at precisely the moment when ‘women and girls’ are also receiving the attention of various corporate philanthropic actors as drivers for development.

Government and institutional commitments to address inequalities for the most part have been weak. And while people’s mobilisation and active citizenship are crucial, in all regions of the world the more people mobilise to defend their rights, the more the civic and political space is being closed off by decision-making elites.

This year’s Political Declaration from the United Nations’ 59^th Session of the Commission on the Status of Women (CSW59) is just the latest example.

Twenty years after the Beijing Declaration – the most progressive ‘blueprint’ for women’s rights of its time and the result of 30,000 activists from around the globe putting pressure on 189 participating government representatives – women’s rights and feminist groups were shut out of the CSW ‘negotiations’ with the result that the Declaration is weak and does not go far enough towards the kind of transformative change necessary to truly achieve the promises made in Beijing.

The forces of justice, freedom and equity are being relentlessly pushed back. There is an urgent need to strengthen our collective voices and power, to further expand our shared analyses and build interconnected agendas for action.

The WSF contributes to doing just that. At this year’s WSF, there was a diversity of feminist activists in attendance and the systemic causes of global inequalities were addressed in intersectional ways linking new relationships to land, and land use to patriarchy, food sovereignty, decolonisation and corporate power.

These connections make the struggle seem huge but also make possible solidarity between movements.

As a global network of feminist and women’s rights activists, organisations and movements, AWID has been working for over 30 years to transform dominant structures of power and decision-making and advance human rights, gender justice and environmental sustainability. In all that we do, collaboration is at the core.

I strongly believe that we cannot achieve meaningful transformation unless we join together in all of our diversity. So for AWID, joining with the struggles for environmental sustainability, just economies and human rights, is another step in a long trajectory of working with and for other movements.

Together we can take bolder steps, push each other further, and draw upon our combined knowledge and collective power to amplify our voices. Working together is the only way to reverse inequality, and to achieve a just and sustainable world.

Edited by Kanya D’Almeida

Excerpt:

President Barack Obama speaks at Cairo University in Cairo, Egypt, Thursday, Jun. 4, 2009. In his speech, President Obama called for a 'new beginning between the United States and Muslims', declaring that 'this cycle of suspicion and discord must end'. Credit: White House photo

By Emile Nakhleh
WASHINGTON, Jan 6 2015 (IPS)

This year, Arab political Islam will be greatly influenced by U.S. regional policy, as it has been since the Obama administration came into office six years ago. Indeed, as the U.S. standing in the region rose with Obama’s presidency beginning in January 2009, so did the fortunes of Arab political Islam.

But when Arab autocrats perceived U.S. regional policy to have floundered and Washington’s leverage to have diminished, they proceeded to repress domestic Islamic political parties with impunity, American protestations notwithstanding.Coddling autocrats is a short-term strategy that will not succeed in the long run. The longer the cozy relationship lasts, the more Muslims will revert to the earlier belief that America’s war on terrorism is a war on Islam.

This policy linkage, expected to prevail in the coming year, will not bode well for political Islam. Like last year, the U.S. will in 2015 pay more attention to securing Arab autocrats’ support in the fight against Islamic State forces than to the mistreatment of mainstream Islamic political parties and movements, which will have severe consequences in the long run.

Since the middle of 2013, the Obama administration’s focus on the tactical need to woo dictators in the fight against terrorist groups has trumped its commitment to the engagement objective. America’s growing support for Arab dictators meant that Arab political Islam would be sacrificed.

For example, Washington seems oblivious to the thousands of mainstream Islamists and other opposition activists languishing in Egyptian jails.

What is political Islam?

Several assumptions underpin this judgment. First, “political Islam” applies to mainstream Islamic political parties and movements, which have rejected violence and made a strategic shift toward participatory and coalition politics through free elections.

Arab political Islam generally includes the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt and Jordan, Hamas in Palestine, Hezbollah in Lebanon, al-Nahda in Tunisia, and al-Wefaq in Bahrain.

The term “political Islam” does not include radical and terrorist groups such as the Islamic State (ISIS, ISIL or IS), al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, North Africa, Iraq, and Syria, or armed opposition groups in Iraq, Syria, Yemen, and Libya. Nor does it apply to terrorist groups in Africa such as Boko Haram, al-Shabab, and others.

Unfortunately, in the past three years, many policy makers in the West, and curiously in several Arab countries, have equated mainstream political Islam with radical and terrorist groups. This erroneous and self-serving linkage has provided Washington with a fig leaf to justify its cozy relations with Arab autocrats and tolerance of their bloody repression of their citizens.

Repression breeds radicalism

It has also given these autocrats an excuse to suppress their Islamic parties and exclude them from the political process. In a press interview late last month, Egypt’s President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi forcefully denounced the Muslim Brotherhood and pledged the movement would not enter the Egyptian parliament.

Egypt’s recent terrorism laws, which Sisi and other Arab autocrats have approved, provide them with a pseudo-legal cover to silence the opposition, including mainstream political Islam.

They have used the expansive and vague definitions of terrorism included in these decrees to incarcerate any person or group that is “harmful to national unity.” Any criticism of the regime or the ruler is now viewed as a “terrorist” act, punishable by lengthy imprisonment.

The Dec. 28 arrest of the Bahraini Sheikh Ali Salman, Secretary General of al-Wefaq, is yet another example of draconian measures against peaceful mainstream opposition leaders and parties in the region. Regime repression of these groups is expected to prevail in 2015.

Second, whereas terrorist organisations are a threat to the region and to Western countries, including mainstream political Islam in the governance of their countries in the long run is good for domestic stability and regional security. It also serves the interests of Western powers in the region.

Recent history tells U.S. that exclusion and repression often lead to radicalisation.  Some youth in these parties have given up on participatory politics in favour of confrontational politics and violence. This phenomenon is expected to increase in 2015, as suppression of political Islam becomes more pervasive and institutionalised.

Third, the serious mistakes the Muslim Brotherhood and al-Nahda made in their first time ever as governing parties should not be surprising since they lacked the experience of governance. Such poor performance, however, is not unique to them.  Nor should it be used as an excuse to depose them illegally and to void the democratic process, as the Sisi-led military coup did in Egypt in 2013.

Although Islamic political parties tend to win the first election after the toppling of dictators, the litmus test of their popular support lies in succeeding elections. The recent post-Arab Spring election in Tunisia is a case in point.

When Arab citizens are provided with the opportunity to participate in fair and free elections, they are capable of electing the party that best serves their interests, regardless of whether the party is Islamic or secular.

Had Field Marshall Sisi in 2013 allowed the Muslim Brotherhood and President Mohammed Morsi to stay in power until the following election, they would have been voted out, according to public opinion polls at the time.

But Sisi and his military junta were not truly committed to a genuine democratic transition in Egypt. Now, according to Human Rights Watch reports, the current state of human rights in Egypt is much worse than it was under former President Hosni Mubarak.

The U.S. and Political Islam

Upon taking office, President Obama understood that disagreements between the United States and the Muslim world, especially political Islam, were driven by specific policies, not values of good governance. A key factor driving these disagreements was the widely held Muslim perception that America’s war on terror was a war on Islam.

The Obama administration also realised that while a very small percentage of Muslims engaged in violence and terrorism, the United States must find ways to engage the other 1.6 billion Muslims worldwide. That drove President Obama early on in his administration to grant media interviews to Arab broadcasters and give his historic Cairo speech in June 2009.

However, as the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan dragged on, and as drone strikes caused more civilian casualties in Yemen, Afghanistan, and elsewhere, many Muslims became more sceptical of Washington’s commitment to sincere engagement with the Muslim world.

The Arab uprisings beginning in 2011 known as the Arab Spring and the toppling of dictators prompted the United States to support calls for freedom, political reform, dignity, and democracy.

Washington announced it would work with Islamic political parties, particularly the Muslim Brotherhood and al-Nahda, as long as these parties were committed to peaceful change and to the principles of pluralism, elections, and democracy.

That unprecedented opening boosted the fortunes of Arab political Islam and inclusive politics in the Arab world. American rapprochement with political Islam, however, did not last beyond two years.

The way forward

Much as one might disagree with Islamic political ideology, it’s the height of folly to think that long-term domestic stability and economic security in Egypt, Bahrain, Palestine, or Lebanon could be achieved without including the Muslim Brotherhood, al-Wefaq, Hamas, and Hezbollah in governance.

Coddling autocrats is a short-term strategy that will not succeed in the long run. The longer the cozy relationship lasts, the more Muslims will revert to the earlier belief that America’s war on terrorism is a war on Islam.

The Arab countries that witnessed the fall of dictators, especially Egypt, will with Washington’s acquiescence revert back to repression and autocracy, as if the Arab Spring never happened.

The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of, and should not be attributed to, IPS-Inter Press Service.

Edited by Kitty Stapp

Excerpt:

At a time when HIV rates have stabilised or declined elsewhere, the epidemic is still advancing in the Arab world, exacerbated by factors such as political unrest, conflict, poverty and lack of awareness due to social taboos.

According to UNAIDS (the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS), an estimated 270,000 people were living with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) in the countries of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region in 2012.

“It is true that the Arab region has a low prevalence of infection, however it has the fastest growing epidemic in the world,“ warns Dr Khadija Moalla, an independent consultant on human rights/gender/civil society/HIV-AIDS.With the exception of Somalia and Djibouti, the [HIV] epidemic is generally concentrated in vulnerable populations at higher risk, such as men-who-have-sex-with-men, female and male sex workers, and injecting drugs users

The United Nations estimates that there were 31,000 new cases and 16,500 new deaths in 2012 alone. “Infections grew by 74 percent between 2001 and 2012 while AIDS-related deaths almost tripled,” says Dr Matta Matta, an infection specialist based at the Bellevue Hospital in Lebanon.

However, both Moalla and Matta explain that figures can be often misleading in the region, due to under-reporting and the absence of consistent and accurate surveys.

With the exception of Somalia and Djibouti, the epidemic is generally concentrated in vulnerable populations at higher risk, such as men-who-have-sex-with-men, female and male sex workers, and injecting drugs users.

In Libya, for example, 90 percent of those in the latter category also live with HIV, notes Matta. Furthermore, adds Moalla, most Arab countries do not have programmes allowing for exchange of syringes.

The legal framework criminalising such activities in most Arab countries means that it is difficult to reach out to specific groups.  With the exception of Tunisia, which recognises legalised sex work, female sex workers who work clandestinely in other countries are not safeguarded by law and thus cannot force their clients to use protection, which allows for the spread of disease.

Lack of awareness, the absence of voluntary testing and of sexual education, social taboos, as well as poverty, are among the factors driving HIV in the region. “Arab governments and societies deny the epidemic and the absence of voluntary testing means that for every infected person we have ten others that we do not know about,” stresses Moalla.

People living with HIV or those at risk face discrimination and stigma.  “More than half of the people living with HIV in Egypt have been denied treatment in healthcare facilities,” explains Matta.

This bleak scenario is compounded by the security challenges prevailing in the region which not only make it difficult to deliver prevention and other programmes, but also restrict access to services by those on treatment and cause displacement and loss of follow-up according to the UNAIDS report.

The war in Iraq that began in 2003, for example, led to the destruction of most of the country’s programmes and facilities under the National AIDS Programme and, according to Moalla, the national aids centre in Libya was recently burnt down.

In addition, in some countries, conflict has significantly increased the vulnerability of women. By 2012, for example, only eight percent of the estimated number of pregnant women living with HIV in the MENA region received appropriate treatment to prevent mother-to-child transmission according to the UNAIDS report.

Meanwhile, only a few governments have worked on effective programmes to fight the epidemic, although there are signs of the emergence of NGOs tackling the problem with people living with HIV and providing them with support.

“North African countries and Lebanon have generally done better than others, while Gulf countries are doing the least,” says Moalla, adding that less than one in five people living with HIV are receiving the medicines they need in the Arab region.

While some efforts have been made with the UNDP HIV Regional Programme pioneering legal reform in several countries, as well as drafting an Arab convention on protection of the rights of people living with HIV in partnership with the League of Arab States, these are not enough.

“The Arab world attitude taking the high moral ground on the issue of HIV is no barrier for the epidemic,” says Matta. “The region’s governments need to address a growing problem that is only worsened by the general upheaval.”

(Edited by Phil Harris)

At Cairo's Tahrir Square. Credit: Mohammed Omer/IPS

By Emile Nakhleh
WASHINGTON, Jan 24 2014 (IPS)

As the Egyptian revolution against Hosni Mubarak celebrates its third anniversary, the military junta under General Abdel Fattah al-Sisi is resurrecting dictatorship under the veneer of “constitutional” legitimacy and on the pretense of fighting “terrorism.”

Syria is still ablaze. Yemen has yet to sever the tentacles of the Saleh regime, and Libya remains in the chaotic throes of tribal fissures and militia violence. Tunisia is the only “Arab Spring” country that is transitioning to democracy wisely and pragmatically.Although dictators fell, most of the old regimes remained intact. The re-emergence of the Mubarak-era dictatorship under General Sisi is the most vivid example.

The uprisings in the past three years have rattled Arab dictators and forced Washington to reassess its relations with the region. Arab autocrats have fought the uprisings and resisted all efforts to redesign the decades-old social contract with their people. Four fell.

Those who are still in power continue to inflict destruction on their countries and repress their citizens.

Yet, some policymakers, talking heads, and academics in Washington and other Western capitals are myopically advocating reconciling with existing regimes, including the Syrian tyrant. Self-proclaimed regional experts are advising these policymakers that Gulf monarchies, for example, are stable and secure and should be embraced.

Likewise, some of these experts are calling on Washington to engage the Egyptian military junta because, they argue, Egypt is the centrepiece of U.S. policy and interests in the region. They maintain these interests should trump American values, which were trumpeted by President Barack Obama in his initial support of the anti-Mubarak revolt.

This “expert” advice reflects a shortsighted, shallow knowledge of the region and is devoid of any strategic analysis of future relations between Arab peoples and their rulers. If followed, it would harm long-term U.S. interests in the region.

Let us remember that three years ago, many of these experts missed the Arab Spring all together, as was pointed out in the 2011 Stimson Institute’s Seismic Shift report.

Many academics and journalists paid scant attention to endemic grievances in Arab societies and focused instead on the “deep state” narrative, which they bought from the regimes hook, line, and sinker.

A few distinguished U.S. journalists, such as the late Anthony Shadid of the New York Times, were aware of what was boiling below the surface in places like Egypt despite the glossy mask of stability that Mubarak and his fellow autocrats presented to the outside world.

It is unfortunately understandable that some policymakers and academics are leaning toward accepting this narrative now because they are becoming disgusted with the bloody tumult across the region and the rise of radicalism and terrorism.

Some academics similarly are trumpeting the “stability” narrative, especially in the Gulf. These “access academics” — who forego serious analysis of regimes’ repressive policies in order to be allowed into those countries and meet with officials — are repeating the same analysis they offered before the revolutions of 2011.

In the Gulf monarchies, as the British academic Christopher Davidson of Durham University has pointed out in his book “After the Sheiks,” the absence of legitimacy, continued repression, and sectarianism will hasten the collapse of these tribal regimes.

Professor Davidson maintains some academics, retired generals and sitting and former diplomats are peddling the “stability” fiction for potential access and economic gain.

Promising business deals, lucrative post-retirement jobs, country visits, and Gulf investment in European and American university buildings are even influencing the type of research, analysis, and academic conferences that are being conducted on the present and future of Gulf monarchies.

Fortunately, some scholars such as Toby Matthiesen of Cambridge University are seriously assessing the long-term destructive nature of bloody sectarianism across the region, which for the most part is being pushed by regimes.

Several factors are driving this pernicious phenomenon. First, although dictators fell, most of the old regimes remained intact. The re-emergence of the Mubarak-era dictatorship under General Sisi is the most vivid example.

The military junta’s harsh sentencing of Ahmad Maher, Ahmad Duma, and Muhammad Adel — key activists in the January 2011 revolution — and the espionage charges against two of Egypt’s most prominent intellectuals, Emad Shahin and Amr Hamzawy, signal that the deep security state is alive and well in Egypt.

The military’s harsh crackdown against all opposition–secular and Islamist–belies its claim that Egypt is on the road to democracy.

The recent branding of the Muslim Brotherhood as a “terrorist” organisation moves Egypt away from political reconciliation, the new “constitution” notwithstanding. In fact, the recently ratified document enshrines the power of the military as an institution impervious to any form of accountability.

The politically motivated capital crime charges against the deposed President Mohamed Morsi and other Muslim Brotherhood leaders underpin the vengeful anti-democratic policies of General Sisi.

Despite flagrant human rights violations and sham trials, the Obama administration is tragically maintaining its military aid to the Egyptian military.

Furthermore, the U.S. State Department has withdrawn the name of Robert Ford as ambassador designate to Egypt from consideration in response to objections from the Egyptian military, according to media reports.

Second, the authoritarian regimes that are still in power are employing comprehensive hard and soft power tools, violently and viciously, in order to keep their rule. Bashar al-Assad has rendered his country a wasteland, killing over 130,000 Syrians and forcing millions to become refugees in an attempt to defeat the opposition.

Much like Egypt’s Sisi, he is feverishly trying to convince Washington and other Western capitals that he is the most effective force against terrorism and (Saudi) Wahhabi extremism. His foreign minister has repeatedly stated that if Western leaders hope to keep Salafi jihadists from overrunning Syria, Assad is their man.

It would be tragic if Washington falls for this ruse. It was Assad who worked closely with radical Salafis first in Iraq and then in Syria. He had hoped Salafis would discredit the moderate, secular opposition — a self-fulfilling prophecy he is happy to see come to pass.

Third, as these regimes fail to defeat their popular revolts and reject meaningful dialogue with the opposition, radical elements and Salafi jihadists begin to fill the power vacuum in Syria, Iraq, and elsewhere. The ensuing stalemate is already producing more turbulence, anemic economies, debilitating uncertainty, and diminishing personal security.

No winner will emerge in the foreseeable future, which hopefully would force Washington to make hard choices. Simply put, these choices involve drawing a morally palatable balance between values and interests. If Washington hopes to be on the right side of history, interests should never be allowed to trump values of good governance, certainly not in the wake of the Arab uprisings of 2011.

Emile Nakhleh is a former Senior Intelligence Service Officer, a Research Professor at the University of New Mexico, and author of “A Necessary Engagement: Reinventing America’s Relations with the Muslim World.”

At the Kawrgosik Refugee Camp near Erbil, in the Kurdistan region of Iraq, more than 200,000 refugees from Syria are being hosted by the regional government. Credit: UN Photo/Eskinder Debebe

By Thalif Deen
UNITED NATIONS, Jan 17 2014 (IPS)

The widespread sectarian violence and ongoing military conflicts in several political hotspots, including Syria, Iraq and Lebanon, have not only claimed thousands of human lives and devastated fragile economies but also undermined the U.N.’s longstanding plans to eradicate hunger and extreme poverty worldwide.

The U.N. Development Programme (UNDP), the world body’s lead agency monitoring human development, points out that the political turmoil, including in countries such as Libya, Tunisia and Egypt, is threatening to derail the U.N.’s highly-touted Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), specifically in the Arab world.

“The crisis in Syria is a crisis for development across the Arab region,” warns Sima Bahous, chairman of the U.N. Development Group (UNDG) in the Arab States Region.

While suffering a major setback in human development, including in education, literacy, health care and life expectancy, Syria has also been singled out as one of the countries responsible for triggering the spreading economic chaos in the region.

Citing a new UNDP report, Yasmine Sherif, special adviser on strategic partnerships & resource mobilisation at UNDP’s Regional Bureau for the Arab States (RBAS), told IPS the conflict in Syria has rolled back human development achievements by 35 years, leaving more than 50 percent of the population (12.6 million people) living in poverty, 9.3 million in need of humanitarian and development assistance and 6.5 million displaced from their homes.

According to the report, released in September, the crisis has also forced some 2.3 million people to flee Syria into neighbouring countries.

Most of them (about 80 percent) do not live in refugee camps but amidst host communities, severely impacting municipal and social services, such as health, education, sanitation, housing and socioeconomic infrastructure, as well as social cohesion in those communities.

Sherif said UNDP is implementing a resilience‑based development approach (livelihoods, vocational skills training, rapid employment, basic rehabilitation) for crisis-affected communities in Syria and host communities in neighbouring countries.

UNDP’s total requirement amounts to 166 million dollars in the subregion, of which 138 million dollars refers to the U.N. Rapid Response Plan and the Syria Humanitarian Assistance Response Plan ‑ both prepared by the U.N. system for Wednesday’s pledging conference in Kuwait which raised more than 2.4 billion dollars, along with 400 million dollars from non-governmental organisations (NGOs)..

Asked how these funds will be disbursed, Sherif told IPS U.N. agencies identify priorities – for instance UNDP identifies priorities together with beneficiaries – and then donors pledge against those priorities. But sometimes, she said, donors themselves suggest priorities. “What is presented by UNDP and other agencies in Kuwait is based on identified needs and priorities in-country,” she added.

The agencies seeking funding also include the World Food Programme (WFP), the World Health Organisation (WHO), the Office of the U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees, the U.N. children’s agency UNICEF, the U.N. Population Fund (UNFPA) and the U.N. Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA).

Secretary-General Bank Ki-moon, who chaired the pledging conference, said the nearly three-year-old conflict has “set Syria back for years, even decades.”

The negative fallout is also “damaging stability and reversing development across the region,” he warned.

The spillover of the refugee crisis – with over 6.5 million people described as “internally displaced” – is causing “great hardship and raising tensions throughout the region”, according to Ban.

And indirectly, the Syrian conflict has triggered secretarian violence in two neigbouring countries: Iraq and Lebanon.

According to a joint World Bank-United Nations study cited by Ban, the conflict has cut economic growth in Lebanon by nearly three percent annually, leading to total losses of up to 7.5 billion dollars.

In Jordan, the cost of hosting Syrian refugees could exceed 1.5 billion dollars, while the high costs have also impacted on Turkey and Iraq.

Bahous, who is also director of UNDP’s Regional Bureau for Arab States, points out that the impact of the Syrian crisis “goes far beyond even the tragic and terrible widespread death and destruction in that country: it is also slowing the region’s progress on development.”

The UNDP report also said that economic activity has been slowed in Egypt, Tunisia and Yemen – all three countries which are undergoing complex political transitions.

The New York-based agency also said that while the Arab region had made progress towards many of the MDGs, including hunger and poverty alleviation, progress has been thwarted due to the “widespread impact of the ongoing conflict in Syria.”

According to U.N. Under Secretary-General Valerie Amos, who heads emergency operations, the WFP needs about 100 million dollars to provide more than four million Syrians with food – for just one month.

And the UNFPA needs about 10 million dollars to reach 2.8 million people with life-saving reproductive health care services in nine provinces in Syria.

Amos also told donors Wednesday nearly every Syrian is affected by the crisis, with a 45-percent drop in gross domestic product (GDP) and a currency that has lost 80 percent of its value.

In the city of Metlaoui in the Governorate of Gafsa, a mining region in the parched south of Tunisia, the streets are dust, filled with ruts, the skin of the men in the cracked lanes leathery brown from the heavy weather.

In Ibn Khaldoun, a neighbourhood on Metlaoui’s fringes, the area seems less of a city and more a chaotic village of one-storey homes of brick and concrete trying to hold fast to sudden rises in the earth.

Behind the flimsy steel gate of one home at the end of an alley in Ibn Khaldoun, locals take me into the courtyard of a home of hollow windowsills and empty doorframes. Used clothes spill out the doorway into the courtyard.“We are in a crisis of trust, between the Islamists on one side and liberals on the other."

Five young Salafists, guilty of nothing more than sporting long beards and praying five times a day, neighbours say, were arrested in a raid by security forces in late October.

“An officer from the security forces said [the Salafists] had weapons. But they didn’t. So the officer said ‘But they will build them!’”

A neighbour points to the earthen floor of the house. “But look; the Salafists were praying in the dust! No one is funding them or supporting them. They’re no threat – they don’t have anything.” Around him, other neighbours of the arrested Salafists loudly condemned the ruling Ennahdha party, who they saw as responsible for the arrests.

Tunisian authorities launched military operations into the Tunisian interior in response to attacks by armed militants in October which rocked a major tourism hub, nearly destroyed the tomb of a former president, and reportedly left six National Guard soldiers dead. Yet, it’s possible that the embattled ruling Ennahdha Party may be using the military operations as a card to appease powerful political adversaries.

According to Fabio Merone, an analyst living in Tunis who specialises in the politics of Salafi groups like those blamed for October’s attacks, the once-outlawed Ennahdha Party “has been refused power so long that they’re desperate to integrate into the elite.” He went on to say that, “Ennhdha is being asked by police forces and the wealthy to take a clear stand with the state against extremists.”

In doing so, he claims, they’re attacking the conservative base that brought them to power in 2011.

After the rise of a small extremist insurgency on Tunisia’s western border and the assassination of two prominent leftist opposition leaders earlier this year, accusations from leftist and liberal political groups against Ennahdha of being tolerant of terrorist groups rose to a crescendo.

Following the last assignation in July, 60 members of the National Constituent Assembly – charged with drafting a constitution and already far behind deadline – walked out, freezing the transitional process completely. This brought the ire of still more Tunisians to bear on the Islamist party, currently at the head of the transitional government.

In its attempts to appease well-off liberals who prefer the old regime of president Zine El Abdine Ben Ali and who feel “suffocated by the Islamists,” Ennahdha is turning its back on its once-thriving Salafist base.

The Salafists, at first wildly successful in channeling the frustration of Tunisia’s poor after the fall of former dictator Ben Ali, are now being publicly rejected by Ennahdha. After Ennahdha cancelled the national conference of ultra-conservative group Ansar Al Charia in May, and in August officially labeled it a ‘terrorist group’, average Tunisian Salafists are facing the heat, like those arrested in Metlaoui.

“Tunisian families are looking at Ennahdha like they once looked at the RCD [Constitutional Democratic Rally, which ruled Tunisia until 2011], because of the arbitrary arrests,” says Selim Kharrat, executive director of Al Bawsala, an NGO which encourages political participation in Tunisia.

Kharrat raised the possibility that arbitrary arrests of Salafists and raids are the work of security forces outside Ennahdha’s control. He notes that sections of the security forces are influenced by supporters of the old regime, who feel threatened by the rise of the Salafists and may be pursuing the crackdown.

“We are in a crisis of trust, between the Islamists on one side and liberals on the other,” Kharrat says plainly. Yet whether it’s the work of secular groups tied to the old regime or Ennahdha politicians trying to please them, the brunt of the war on terror being faced by Tunisians in the impoverished interior is the same.

In a farming village not far from Metlaoui, villagers mill silently around a home in the middle of freshly ploughed fields. My guide tells me that only days after the start of the military operations in October, eight locals were arrested from the house after a reported standoff with the National Guard.

The whole household was rounded up and jailed on suspicion that two of the young men in the home were plotting terrorist acts. However, evidence was reportedly thin, and the six others were simply family of the young men.

Though released soon after their imprisonment, my guide relays to me, the innocent family members are outraged with the security services and the government they see as complicit in the raid. Despite this, they are silent with me – eyes lowered and hands stuffed in their pockets. My guide tells me the family members of the suspected terrorists were given orders from the government not speak to journalists after their arrest.

Seif Eddine Belabed, a media supervisor for Ennahdha in one of its neighbourhood offices in Tunis, seemed unfazed by the story of Tunisians being swept up in raids with little or no evidence. “Maybe I arrest 100 people, and five or six are innocent,” he responds, in an office in downtown Tunis. “A mistake, but at the same time you’ve caught over 90 bad guys. This is what happens in a raid.”

Like the Ennahdha leadership since it began cracking down on the outwardly pious in Tunisia earlier this year, Belabed disowned the Salafists – violent or no. “There’s this idea that Salafis are a branch of Ennahdha. This is wrong.” Waving his hand, he said, “In their methods and ideology, they are something else completely.”

Thousands of opposition activists have protested in central Tunis, demanding the resignation of Tunisia’s Islamist-led government, before a national dialogue aimed at ending months of political deadlock.

The protesters gathered on central Habib Bourguiba Avenue in the capital, waving Tunisian flags and shouting slogans such as: “The people want the fall of the regime”, “Get out” and “Government of traitors, resign!”

Wednesday’s demonstration took place amid a heavy security presence, with armoured vehicles and anti-riot police deployed along the Tunis boulevard, which was the epicentre of the January 2011 revolution that ousted former President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali.

A rival rally planned by the League for the Protection of the Revolution, a controversial pro-government armed group, failed to materialise.

Wednesday’s demonstration came just hours before the start of a planned national dialogue between the ruling party Ennahda and the opposition, which has now been delayed until Friday.

Mediators hope the talks will bring an end to the political paralysis gripping the country since the July killing of opposition MP Mohamed Brahmi and will mark a crucial step in the country’s democratic transition.

“We hope that Larayedh will have enough courage to announce the resignation of his government within three weeks to save the country,” Hamma Hammami, a leader of the opposition Popular Front party, told the AFP news agency.

Tunisian Prime Minister Ali Larayedh on Wednesday confirmed Ennahda was ready to resign, but insisted on the completion of the country’s new constitution, the establishment of an electoral commission and a clear election date before handing over power.

Meanwhile, seven Tunisian police were killed and one injured in clashes with gunmen, as the country waited for the government’s expected resignation and the launch of talks on ending months of political deadlock.

Fighting erupted in the central Sidi Bouzid region, when members of the National Guard raided a house where the gunmen were holed up, a police source told AFP.

President Moncef Marzouki announced three days of national mourning.

“It is not a coincidence that they decided to attack the National Guard today. Every time we reach a consensus terrorism rises again,” he said.

Political roadmap

According to a political roadmap drawn up by mediators, the national dialogue will lead within three weeks to the formation of a new caretaker cabinet of technocrats.

Negotiators will also have one month to adopt a new constitution, electoral laws and a timetable for fresh elections, key milestones in the democratic transition which has effectively been blocked by wrangling between the Islamists, their coalition allies and the opposition.

A coalition of secular opposition parties are demanding the immediate departure of the government, which it accuses of clinging to power.

A senior member of Ennahda charged on Tuesday that the opposition was preparing to “destroy” the negotiations between the two sides by staging anti-government protests.

About 60 opposition MPs who have been boycotting parliament since the political crisis erupted also said they had received assurances that the national dialogue would begin with the government announcing its resignation.

The Islamist party was heavily repressed under the Ben Ali regime.

Since triumphing in the parliamentary elections in October 2011, they have been weakened by accusations that they have failed to fix Tunisia’s lacklustre economy and prevent attacks by armed groups.

After three months of political uncertainty, unkept promises and a false start to the national dialogue on Oct. 5, the Tunisian press has grown increasingly critical of the ruling elite and sceptical of efforts to end the crisis.

Published under an agreement with Al Jazeera.

Egypt’s loss could be Tunisia’s gain as tourists begin to flock back. Credit: Louise Sherwood/IPS.

By Louise Sherwood
TUNIS, Sep 11 2013 (IPS)

The Tunisian revolution, which ousted the dictator Ben Ali in early 2011, gave greater liberty to Tunisians but it also scared off many tourists. However, despite the current political crisis visitors have steadily returned, and the Tunisian authorities and tourism industry are determined to protect a sector which plays a vital role in the Tunisian economy.

Tunisian minister of tourism Jamel Gamra is positive about the industry’s outlook. “Tourism is very important for the Tunisian economy,” he told IPS. “About 400,000 people are directly employed in the industry and up to 20 percent of the population [almost two million people] are living, either directly or indirectly, from tourism.

“The sector has big potential and we aim to reach 10 million tourists by 2016, a growth of one million tourists per year. Tunisia also has more freedom and democracy now, which is very important for economic growth and prosperity and has a positive effect on the tourism industry.”"We haven't seen any change. We would be put off going to Egypt though." -- Clare and Andy Kellaway

Thomson, one of the leading United Kingdom tour operators which also runs First Choice, are similarly optimistic. “We increased capacity within the resort for summer 2013,” a spokesperson told IPS. “We added the exclusive, new Thomson Couples Sousse hotel, as well as adding the El Ksar Resort and Thalasso Sousse hotel to our programme.”

Hichem Borgi, commercial manager at the El Ksar resort and Thalasso Sousse, a four star hotel, is also confident about the return of the tourists but has concerns about political stability.

“This year our visitor numbers will probably reach pre-revolution levels again. However the situation is fragile and when incidents happen, like the attack on the U.S. embassy last year and the political assassinations this year, it interrupts the rhythm of the reservations and bookings.”

Atef Bouhlel used to operate spa treatment centres in two hotels in Sousse but left the tourism sector in 2012 and is now an associate in a commercial plastering business. “When the revolution happened hotel occupancy dropped dramatically, from 900 to 300 or 400 guests in one hotel, the number of clients went down and I could no longer afford the rent,” he said.

He still sees tourism as vital to the Tunisian economy. “Libya earns a lot of money from oil but we don’t have that. Our economy is dependent on tourism. Even those working in agriculture are supplying fruit and vegetables to the hotels. Buses and taxis drive the tourists around and transport them to and from the airport. Students spend their summers working as waiters. Tourism helps in many sectors.”

Recent figures released by the Tunisian National Tourism Office confirm that tourism is showing steady signs of recovery. In 2010 the industry was bringing in 3.5 billion dinars (2.1 billion dollars) but in 2011, the year of the revolution, visitor numbers dropped by 30 percent on the previous year, from nearly seven million tourists to less than five million.

The figures show that by mid-August this year close to four million tourists had visited, generating almost 1.9 billion dinars (1.1 billion dollars).

An increased police presence is being maintained in resorts this season. Tunisia has only to look to Egypt to see what could happen to tourism revenue if the political situation turns violent.

“Tour operators have cancelled flights to Egypt until October. Tourists who booked to go there are being offered a refund or an alternative holiday in another destination such as Tunisia,” said Snene Mohamed Anas with Tunisie Voyages, a travel agency which provides excursions for the international tour operator Tui.

Keeping tourists safe is priority for his company. “We are in touch with the authorities and if there are protests we warn people immediately,” he told IPS. “Also on our Sahara excursions we send a car ahead of the bus to make sure there are no problems on the road.”

These strategies do seem to be working to allay the fears of tourists. Clare and Andy Kellaway, from England, were visiting Sousse with their son, Cameron. “We haven’t heard about any political problems. We came here in 2005, 2008 and now. We haven’t seen any change. We would be put off going to Egypt though.”

Moves are being made to encourage tourists to step outside hotels. “The authorities in charge of the tourist sector are not doing enough,” said Ghazi Ben Rejeb, a waiter in one of the cafes in the popular resort Port Al Khantaoui. “We need to improve the excursions and activities available.”

Such demands have not gone unheard. “First we must restructure the sector in terms of developing not only hotels but culture, handicrafts, and jobs,” said Gamra. “Secondly we are currently seen mainly as a beach destination but we want to diversify developing culture, archaeological sites, and sport.

“Thirdly we want to become more web-oriented and make better use of new technology. Currently we are heavily dependent on tour operators but we want to start selling our product directly to customers online. We also want to attract more tourists from the Asian, African and Gulf markets.”

Tunisia may still be trying to overcome the hurdles of its political transition but the tourism industry, one of its economic mainstays, looks set for a sunny future.

The military on standby in central Tunis. Credit: Louise Sherwood/IPS.

By Louise Sherwood
TUNIS, Aug 13 2013 (IPS)

Tunisia was plunged into political strife when opposition leader Mohamed Brahmi was assassinated late last month, triggering widespread pro- and anti-government demonstrations across the country. In the days since his death the North African nation has faced a further series of terrorist attacks that have threatened to destabilise a country seen as a model for post-revolution democracy in the region.

Four days after Brahmi was shot dead outside his home in Tunis on Jul. 25, eight Tunisian soldiers were brutally killed in Islamist militant attacks against the army. Since then, more soldiers have died in clashes, bombs have been detonated in and around the capital Tunis, and terror suspects have been killed and arrested in police raids.

Police claim to have foiled another assassination attempt against a political figure in the city of Sousse. The target was not named."Since the revolution two important clients, an American investment fund and a tour operator that owned two hotels, have pulled out of Tunisia."

Sheikh Abdelfatteh Mourou, vice-president of the government’s dominant ruling party Ennahda Movement, told IPS: “We have no history of terrorism in Tunisia. We’re not ready for such attacks. We must strike the terrorists.

“Terrorism has no nationality. Terrorists don’t see people as victims of a particular country, they see them only as enemies. They search for the weakest link in the chain, a country that just came out of a revolution, that lacks stability, where the government isn’t strong enough. That’s us now.”

Felix Tusa from the Geneva Centre for the Democratic Control of Armed Forces, a non-profit organisation that works with the Tunisian government on security sector reform, told IPS: “The politicians controlling the ministry of the interior have changed, but there have been very few changes in the security apparatus itself.

“The biggest challenges are a lack of funding for salaries and equipment and how to develop an intelligence service that is effective, whilst also being transparent and respecting human rights. One of the main criticisms of the democratic transition process has been a lack of security sector reform.”

The surprise resignation of army chief Gen. Rachid Ammar in June was attributed in part to the problems within the ministry of the interior. In the announcement of his departure on national television, Ammar stated that the lack of a functioning intelligence service was preventing effective military operations.

Minister of the interior Lotfi Ben Jeddou renewed his commitment last week to tackle terrorism along the Algerian border. “Military and security operations will continue until all terrorists holed up in the mountain are extirpated,” he said in a statement.

The ministry has come under fire for investigations into the murder of Chokri Belaid, another opposition politician who was shot six months ago, with the same gun as Brahmi, as he left his house. The ministry was criticised for taking too long to identify suspects, and when it did, for failing to arrest them. “We will soon compensate for this failure by a massive mobilisation of agents to capture these terrorists,” the minister said.

Marking six months since Belaid’s assassination, tens of thousands of Tunisians turned out Tuesday last week to call for the government to step down. The march was on the same day the National Constituent Assembly, which is writing the new Constitution, suspended its work until dialogue takes place between the government and opposition.

A large pro-government rally had been held a few days earlier, but this was the biggest anti-government demonstration since Brahmi’s murder. The now familiar cries of “dégage!” (get out!) were stronger than ever.

Ines Karaoui came to the protest with her husband and two young children from Sfax, which is a three-hour drive from Tunis. “It’s a national duty to come. I won’t sleep tonight but people have lost relatives and children have lost their fathers. It’s nothing to sacrifice a few hours of sleep compared to the sacrifice of soldiers who had their throats cut.

“Tunisia is bleeding, we have cried tears of blood for our Tunisia. We love our country and we want a future for our children. We don’t want to be like Afghanistan or Syria…The government wants people to feel that the terrorist threat is very close to Tunisia but they are the ones behind this. We are anti-extremism. We want to take back our Tunisia.”

Commenting on the accusations against the government, Mourou told IPS: “That’s not true. They [the opposition] know that Al-Qaeda, Ansar al-Sharia and the Salafists are not Ennahda…we are all Muslims but we do not follow the same programme.”

Others in Tunisia question whether even these groups are to blame. Sheikh Mohamed, an Islamist and professor of theology who spent seven years as a political prisoner under dictator Zine El Abidine Ben Ali’s regime, told IPS: “Salafists have been blamed for the terrorist attacks but it is not certain. Perhaps members of the old regime or foreigners are responsible.

“Many Salafists are peaceful but some are violent and infiltrate mosques and there are also Salafist jihadists. I support Shari’ah law and want Islam to be prominent in the new constitution but I also want democracy and refuse all violence.”

As each day brings new stories of attacks at the borders, bomb threats and assassination plots, Tunisia’s economy is also taking a hit. Both tourists and investors are being frightened away, and with them the economic lifeblood of a successful democratic transition.

Mehdi Zaoui, an international business lawyer, told IPS: “Since the revolution two important clients, an American investment fund and a tour operator that owned two hotels, have pulled out of Tunisia. I also have three or four clients who were thinking about investing in the country in the industry and IT sectors who are reconsidering.

“I had a meeting with an Italian client working in the chemicals industry asking me about the situation here. They have already spent a lot of money in the country but they are scared about their investment.”

The government is stepping up efforts to combat terrorism. The perceived insecurity and instability may yet pose the greatest threat to Tunisia.

Mourners gather at the funeral of opposition leader Mohamed Brahmi in Tunis. Credit: Louise Sherwood/IPS.

By Louise Sherwood
TUNIS, Jul 31 2013 (IPS)

As political divisions threaten to destabilise the national transition process in Tunisia, Prime Minister Ali Laarayedh has set deadlines for finalising the new constitution and holding elections. Not everyone is convinced these will be met.

In a televised speech Monday appealing for a calm resolution of the political crisis, Laaryedh stated: “Dissolution of the National Constituent Assembly (NCA) and the government will not help the situation…There are opportunists who are trying to take advantage of this situation. Dialogue shouldn’t be in the streets or through violence but at the table discussing strategies and plans.”

His speech was a show of strength following a wave of protests that have hit the country since the assassination of opposition leader Mohamed Brahmi on Thursday last week, the second such assassination in five months. Early shocked reactions led to protests against the government, with many chanting ‘dégage!’ (get out!), a slogan that was used during the revolution.It was expected that the constitution would be finalised within a year followed by elections but almost two years on it is still not finished.

The opposition is already unhappy with the government’s progress with the transitional process. It was expected that the constitution would be finalised within a year followed by elections but almost two years on it is still not finished. The government insists it is taking time to get it right, but critics argue it is clinging to power.

Laarayedh now says the constitution will be finalised by the end of August and that election laws will be written by Oct. 23, the date the government came to power in 2011. He announced that elections will be held on Dec. 17, the anniversary of the day three years ago when street vendor Mohamed Bouazizi set himself alight, igniting the revolution in Tunisia and triggering the Arab Spring.

However Amine Ghali, programme director at the Kawakibi Democracy Centre, an international civil society organisation based in Tunis, told IPS: “There is no possibility of meeting these deadlines. For the election laws and elections we need six to eight months. Perhaps the constitution could be finished by the end of August but only if there is a genuine discussion to improve the current draft, taking into account the many shortfalls it contains.”

Anti-government protestors are also angry that not enough is being done to stop extremist Islamic groups or to secure national borders. The country was plunged into mourning once more Monday when nine Tunisian soldiers were killed and their bodies mutilated in a terrorist attack close to the Algerian border.

Following Brahmi’s funeral on Saturday both pro- and anti- government protestors demonstrated in the square in front of the NCA in Tunis. This led to clashes, and police fired tear gas into the crowds. Protests have been taking place across the country.

Reem Selmi came with her husband and 12-year-old daughter to support the government in an earlier protest on Sunday. “People want the government to solve all the problems straightaway but it’s not possible just like that,” she said. She believes the government, which is dominated by the moderate Islamic party Ennahda, is on the right path.

“This government lets everybody live the life that they want. Under [former dictator] Ben Ali we were not free to practise our religion but now we can. We are Muslims and we love Islam. Islam does not mean terrorism.”

Yet there is a danger that political divisions are being strengthened down religious lines.

“I used to want Ben Ali out because he wouldn’t allow Muslims to grow long beards or women to wear the niqab, but now I think I know why he did this,” Maher Gatri on the anti-government side of the square told IPS.

“Today you can look at a person and just by his clothes or appearance you can tell which party they support. We are all Tunisians and Muslims but now we are separating into two sides. This is very sad. When I am near the government supporters I feel afraid. I am a Muslim but now I am in fear of my own religion.”

The government is also facing a crisis amongst members of the NCA charged with writing the constitution. Several have withdrawn from their positions over the last few days.

“Fifty-nine [out of 217] members have withdrawn but we want them to come back,” Osama al Saghir, NCA member from the Ennahda party tells IPS. “If we find a solution we will complete the constitution on time. If they choose not to come back they will have to resign and be replaced.”

There are claims that the government itself, a coalition of three parties, the Congress for the Republic (CPR), Ettakatol, and the dominant party Ennahda, may be fragmenting.

Bannour Mohamed, spokesperson for Ettakatol, reportedly told local radio station Jawhara FM, “If Ennahda and the CPR refuse the dissolution of the government, Ettakatol will withdraw from the troika.”

Al Saghir says this is not the case. “We continue to work together with Mustapha Ben Jaafar, Ettakatol’s secretary general and president of the NCA.”

Television images of the violence in Egypt serve as a stark warning to Tunisians of where the path a violent overthrow may lead.

In a paper entitled ‘Tunisia unlikely to go Egypt’s way’ Francis Ghilès, senior research fellow at the Barcelona Centre for Foreign Affairs (CIDOB) sets out three key differences between the Egyptian and Tunisian crises which offer hope for Tunisia: Tunisia’s army does not have a strong political role, its economic and unemployment problems are not as bad, and it has a strong and vocal civil society, he argues. Many Tunisians hope he is right.

The phosphate processing plant of Gabes, seen here with phosphogypsum debris in the foreground. Credit: Justin Hyatt/IPS

By Justin Hyatt
GABÈS. Tunisia, Jun 7 2013 (IPS)

The story of Gabès and the local phosphate industry follows a plot that is all too familiar: an underdeveloped town located in an industrial region boasts one major lucrative industry with high output and export values, but the local population and surroundings experience alarming levels of illness and environmental blight.

But locals are no longer remaining as silent as they once were, holding a festival to mark World Environment Day on Jun. 5 and taking other actions such as protesting and using anti-pollution graffiti to increase awareness about the situation in Gabès.

The sixth largest city and a major industrial hub in southern Tunisia, Gabès is home to the state phosphate processing plant. The factory, operated by Group Chimique Tunisien (GCT), processes phosphate from Gafsa and the interior of the country into phosphorus, then exports the product worldwide.

Gabès’s industrial sector dates as far back as the middle of the twentieth century. By 2007, with an annual output of phosphate reaching 8 million tonnes, Tunisia became fifth in the world for phosphate production.

“It is an enormous industry” amounting to 30 percent of Tunisia’s gross national product (GNP), says Haythem Nasfi, director of the Gabès branch of the Institute for War and Peace Reporting (IWPR).

GCT employs 3,000 workers, and on days when the production cycle runs at full speed, daily profits can reach 11 million TND, roughly 6.8 million U.S. dollars. But with a vast industrial zone less than one kilometre from the edge of town, the factories’ activities inevitably have severe repercussions for both human health and animal life.

Gabès has the highest rate of cancer in Tunisia, and in the neighbourhood closest to the factory, Chott Salam, lung cancer can be found in one out of 10 households. Kidney cancer rates are slightly higher, with 12 percent of families affected. Likewise, bone fragility, allergies and stillbirth all feature higher than average rates."You always want to sleep. You never have enough energy [in Gabès]."
--Haythem Nasfi

“Everyone is tired. You always want to sleep. You never have enough energy,” Nasfi said, citing a common complaint among Gabèsiens. Simply taking a short trip to the nearby touristic town of Matmata leads to a dramatic improvement in mental facilities, he added.

Affecting wildlife

Meanwhie, the Oasis of Chott Salam, which is located directly beside the industrial area and once teemed with bird and animal life, has become more of an industrial wasteland, unsuitable for wildlife or recreation.

Local fish populations suffer too. Since 1965 over 200 species have been lost, reducing biodiversity in the gulf to as few as 15 fish species.

The natural ecosystems inherent not just to this now damaged oasis but also to the entire Gulf of Gabès  are unique, their warm waters providing a special reproduction zone for species of the Mediterranean Sea. Noteworthy here are the waders and waterfowl, as well as marine vegetation such as seagrass and posidonia.

According to ecologist and designer Safouane Azouzi, a native of Gabès, Chott Salam is considered the only maritime oasis in the world. Yet currently over 400 sources of fresh water feeding into the oasis have dried up because of chemical pollutants, and the loss of adequate habitat and sources of uncontaminated water has forced many species to either find other habitats or simply dwindle in number.

Authorities have so far kept silent on the pollution issue and have yet to openly admit that the problem exists. Most Gabès residents believe that the government simply doesn’t want to cough up the money for its modernisation.

The most critical reform would involve ending the large-scale discharge of phosphogypsum, a by-product of the production cycle. The organisation SOS Environnement Gabès asserts that the daily amount of phosphogypsum that is leaked into the sea reaches a whopping 28, 720 tonnes.

Phosphogypsum, a radioactive reaction of phosphate ore with sulfuric acid, are strewn across the ground leading from the factory to the sea, and waves pounding the empty beach consist of ink-black water. In the United States, large quantities of phosphogypsum are required to be stored in sequestered large stacks.

Taking on pollution

But while no palpable steps toward factory reform have been observed by the citizens of Gabès, environmental activism has been taken to new heights.

The city now boasts 23 civil associations working to bring the pollution issue to the forefront of public discourse. The results are paying off. “Stop the Pollution” graffiti adorns the facades of numerous buildings, and non-violent protests such as roadblocks frequently figure into the routine used by campaigners.

The Association to Protect the Oasis of Chott Salam has spearheaded recent awareness-raising efforts, including a festival staged on the Jun. 5, World Environment Day. Over 1,000 participants marched through the streets to the scene of the festival, chanting, “We want to live.” Even more locals visited information stands or listened to anti-pollution rap and hip-hop.

Organiser Neder Chkiwa remarked that the previous year witnessed only a fraction of the current level of interest. The organisers have packed the month of June with numerous events, such as distributing flyers in shopping centers or holding anti-pollution graffiti contests.

The possibility for citizens to actively engage with this issue is in fact one of the benefits of living in Tunisia after the revolution. “During the time of Ben Ali, people might have complained behind closed doors,” Nasfi told IPS. Yet today this taboo has been broken, and not only citizens can discuss the problem openly, but they have also become de facto environmentalists.

Before the revolution, any open act of protest would have been unthinkable. “You would have gone straight to jail” Chkiwa noted.

SOS Environnement Gabès has been operating under the radar for a number of years, and they are particularly pleased with the new possibilities to protest. “We pin a lot of our hopes on the new generation, which has the most at stake and deserves to have healthy living conditions, without having to flee the city,” a member of the organisation, who requested anonymity, told IPS.

Dinah Abdelwahad, who hails from Gabès but currently lives in Tunis as an interior designer, maintains the same hopes. “While the activists are slowly but surely making progress to change things, there is still an imbalance of power. Those running the factories and in government have more money and political influence.”

“But I remain optimistic that things will soon pick up, and we will experience real change,” Abdelwahad concluded.

Cartoonist Nadia Khiari, aka Willis From Tunis, in Cannes. Credit: A.D. McKenzie

By A. D. McKenzie
CANNES, May 20 2013 (IPS)

By now, most movie fans know that American actor Leonardo DiCaprio was in this southern French city for the annual Cannes Film Festival. But fewer people are aware that Willis from Tunis and Kichka of Israel were also here.

Willis is the pseudonym of Nadia Khiari, a cartoonist from Tunisia whose acerbic and ironic drawings are gaining an international following, mainly through social media and selected journals. Michel Kichka is the prominent Belgian-born, Israel-based cartoonist whose work is viewed eagerly in his adopted country.

In Cannes, they joined fellow cartoonists Plantu of France and Dilem of Algeria to highlight the work of Cartooning For Peace, a non-profit association that aims to foster dialogue, promote freedom of expression and recognise the journalistic work of cartoonists.

“We have Muslim cartoonists, Jewish cartoonists, Christian cartoonists – all with the idea of contributing to peace,” said Plantu, whose drawings have appeared for more than 40 years in the influential centre-left French newspaper Le Monde.

Plantu and Kofi Annan, former secretary-general of the United Nations, founded Cartooning For Peace in 2006 in the wake of protests and riots around the world sparked by Danish cartoons depicting the Prophet Mohammad.

The group now comprises more than 100 cartoonists representing 40 nationalities and all the world’s major religions.

During the 12-day film festival, which ends May 26, members’ works are on exhibition in the huge hall where official film screenings and press conferences with the “stars” take place.

Alongside the glitter and glamour, Cannes’ organisers said they wanted to draw attention to threats against freedom of expression. They’re also holding an auction of original cartoons during the festival to fund Cartooning For Peace’s efforts, which include providing protection and legal assistance to cartoonists. "We don't need a political party to be our intermediary with God."
-- Nadia Khiari

Standing beside one of her drawings, Khiari (Willis From Tunis) told IPS she found the atmosphere “frenetic”, but she said that the support of Cannes, Cartoonists For Peace and the people who write to her made her feel less isolated.

Connecting with others “gives me energy and the desire to go on,” she said. “If I continue doing this, it’s for all the people who find my cartoons interesting and who send me comments. I receive lots of messages of encouragement, and that helps me because I feel less alone.”

Willis is aware of the dangers that cartoonists face in certain countries. In 2011, Syrian cartoonist Ali Ferzat was badly beaten by security forces, who symbolically tried to destroy his hands.

Cartooning For Peace launched a campaign to get him out of Syria and to hospital, where plastic surgery saved his fingers, according to Alice Toulemonde, a spokesperson for the group. Farzat, whose cartoons criticised the regime of President Bashar al-Assad, is now able to draw again.

More recently, the group and Amnesty International have highlighted the case of Venezuelan cartoonist Rayma Suprani, who has been receiving threats related to her work, as she is not a fan of the late Venezuelan president Hugo Chavez.

For Tunisia’s Khiari, it was a major political event that pushed her towards cartooning. An artist and art teacher, she launched Willis From Tunis during the “Jasmine Revolution” that led to the Arab Spring. She took her pseudonym from the name of her cat, Willis, who was born during the last speech of former Tunisian president Zine El Abidine Ben Ali.

“The president was there promising press freedom and a host of other things, and the absurdity of the speech inspired me to do some cartoons,” she recalled of the beginning in 2011. “Of course I didn’t know then that this would be his last speech.”

One of her cartoons on display in Cannes shows a news reader in dark glasses (a reference to the film “Men In Black”) telling viewers that after the commercial break they will forget about “23 years of dictatorship, the revolution, martyrs and the quest for liberty and solidarity” but that they will continue to “be miserable”.

“I feel that I’m one of many who want the same things – happiness, employment, freedom. It’s not complicated,” she added. “All Tunisians are interested in politics. We are 11 million politicians. I express myself through cartoons and humour. For others it’s through blogging, articles, photos and other means. It’s visceral.”

Khiari said she has a special interest in protecting women’s rights, which are constantly under threat in Tunisia. She drew cartoons about a proposal to add to the constitution that “women are complementary” to men. The proposal was withdrawn after women took to the streets to protest.

“We raised our voices to say ‘I’m not complementary to anyone, I’m my own individual being’,” Khiari said. “We now know that if we react, go out and protest, there are means to change things. Personally, I’m fighting for freedom of expression and the rights of women.”

In her cartoons, she also shows concern for the direction the country has taken since Ben Ali was forced to flee.

“The slogan of the revolution was dignity, liberty and employment. That’s what we wanted,” she told IPS. “The issue wasn’t morality or religion. Each person’s spirituality is a personal matter, but politicians are spending time turning attention from the real issues, which include the economy and employment, and they’re talking about morality.”

“Meanwhile, poverty and joblessness still exist and nothing is being solved. We don’t need a political party to be our intermediary with God.”

Encouraging debate through humour is also a tool for Kichka, Israel’s leading political cartoonist, who believes that artists have to be true to themselves.

“As a cartoonist, I have to take sides,” he told IPS. “When I see certain things happening in the world, I feel I have a commitment. I am not drawing for my own pleasure.”

“You have to take into consideration that you can be badly misunderstood, but that doesn’t mean you can’t express yourself, especially in a free country,” he added. “A sense of humour is essential for living.”

Of the 60,000 participants at this year's WSF, 20,000 came from Tunisia. Credit: Monika Prokopczuk/IPS

By Justin Hyatt
TUNIS, Apr 17 2013 (IPS)

When participants at the 2011 World Social Forum in Dakar, Senegal, received word that former Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak had stepped down, swept away by a wave of popular resistance that brought millions of Egyptians into the streets, few could contain their joy.

But euphoria was quickly replaced by doubts: what is the purpose of the World Social Forum (WSF)? Is it even relevant anymore? How does it connect with people struggling to survive, and facing the guns on the ground?

“Yet here we are two years later,” said renowned commentator and social scientist Immanuel Wallerstein at the 2013 edition of the WSF in Tunis, “invited by the very people who made this revolution, who want us here, who want us to help strengthen their internal struggle in Tunisia. Is that irrelevant?”

His question points to the need, expressed by scores of participants who gathered here from Mar. 26-30, for serious reflection on the success and direction of the WSF, which has just completed its 13^th year.

Although the event was held in Tunis to honour the revolutionaries who toppled Tunisia’s former dictator Zine El Abidine Ben Ali — and set in motion a chain of similar uprisings that came to be dubbed the Arab Spring — participants continue to wonder where the Forum will go, and what it is capable of achieving.

The workshop series “Decolonising the Forum” brought into focus the discrepancies of representation and accessibility.

This year drew a clear majority of non-Westerners: of the roughly 60,000 visitors, only 8,000 came from Europe, while up to 20,000 were from Tunisia alone. Yet, traditionally, large organisations such as the anti-globalisation Association for the Taxation of financial Transactions and Aid to Citizens (ATTAC), along with Europe and North America-based NGOs, have been better able than organisations in the South to send major delegations.

Speaking on behalf of the Indian National Forum of Forest People and Forest Workers, Roma Malik recalled that the WSF started as a process to counter the negative consequences of globalisation and neoliberalism, which critics claim have created massive inequalities in the global distribution of income: just a glance at the Gini Index, which measures income inequality on a scale of 0 to 1, shows Namibia at 0.74, dangerously close to the point of “absolute inequality”, while industrialised countries like the Czech Republic, Norway and Japan hover around the 0.25 mark on the scale.

Thus, “The WSF should become less dominated by the big NGOs and efforts need to be made to bring more people to the gatherings who have less funding,” Roma told IPS.

This includes the kind of people that Roma works with, such as forest dwellers in India who are subject to land-grabbing and displacement, as multi-national corporations target these mineral-rich regions and replace natural forests with cash-crops and monocultures.

Over 1.1 million hectares of forest are under threat in the central Indian region, according to a recent report by Greenpeace entitled “Countering Coal”. Development of the Mahan coal block, located in the Singrauli district of the central Indian state of Madhya Pradesh, could alone displace 14,000 tribal people.

This comes at a time when rural dwellers in India are having to fight for their right to prevent large-scale investments from disrupting their way of life, as the Indian government recently forced a watering down of protective legislation in the so-called Forest Rights Act, once heralded as a victorious achievement for forest dwellers.

Steven Faulkner, international officer of the South African Municipal Workers Union, put the burden of addressing the challenge of representation squarely on the shoulders of the Forum’s leadership, which traditionally takes the form of the International Council (IC), a representative body of roughly 140 members.

“We need a bold leadership, which considers itself accountable to the poor and the marginalised,” he said.

Having spent several decades working on labour issues throughout Africa, Faulkner stressed the fact that the world’s poor are not passive recipients of aid but are rather active survivors of a highly unequal economic, social and political world system.

This very act of survival is a creative process that “we should be looking at more carefully”, continued Faulkner, bringing in those directly affected to share their strategies.

“If we can free ourselves from the boundaries imposed by colonialism, and become genuinely free in the manner that Nelson Mandela talked about, then we can realise one thing: Africa has enormous potential.” Tapping into this potential involves “retention of humanity” by installing political, economic and environmental relationships based on mutuality instead of competition.

Other voices at the WSF pointed to the Forum’s great unifying and renewing effect. Hassen Ltaief, an activist during the Tunisian revolution, drew huge applause from the audience when he said: “We here are not the same anymore as we were before the WSF. We came to bring a new spirit to the Forum and as I can see in the eyes of the older activists, it appears this was a true success.”

What made the forum significant, Ltaief informed IPS, was that it opened the space for the development of a collective conscience, and highlighted the importance of collaborative organising, two critical lessons for Tunisia, which is experiencing the growing pains of a new democracy and is under enormous pressure to safeguard the hard-won gains of the revolutionary period.

Now, organisers are beginning to lay the groundwork for future meetings. The IC’s plans to hold its next planning meeting in the Maghreb region has given a boost to the Maghreb Social Forum, while a decision regarding an upcoming Maghreb/Mashreq Social Forum is expected in May.

The Maghreb Social Forum has been in existence since 2005, when it was called to life in Porto Alegre by Moroccans and Tunisians. It has since developed along the lines of a regional social forum, and has made special efforts to address issues pertaining to women, youth and broadening the civil society sector in Northern Africa.

Formal proposals for the next World Social Forum are also anticipated in the near future, while currently the ideas floating around range from India to Mexico, Canada, Brazil, or even Tunisia.

“The WSF has traditionally been a nomadic experience,” said Nicolas Haeringer, a long-time participant and observer of the International Council. “It needs to grow roots, more than previously, and as Tunis provided one of the most inspiring gatherings I’ve attended, it would not be so far-fetched of an idea to hold it here again.”

A call for freedom in Tunis. Credit: Lassad Ben Achour/IPS.

By Giuliana Sgrena
TUNIS, Apr 14 2013 (IPS)

Ela, a young Tunisian woman whose face is barely visible behind her niqab, says she has spent five months protesting a university ban against the religious garment in the classroom “to no avail”. On the other side of the capital Tunis, a group of students decked out in djellabas and keffiyehs (traditional Tunisian costumes) with the Tunisian flag wrapped around their shoulders, perform the Harlem Shake: a dance form that originated in the United States in the early 1980s but has recently gone viral online as a popular meme.

The two scenes represent the latest battle in Tunisia, between ultra-religious Salafists and staunchly secular Tunisians who say the rise of Islamists after the fall of dictator Zine El Abidine Ben Ali in January 2011 represents an erosion of the gains made during the revolution.

Ela, clad from head to toe in black, represents the conservatives’ desire for reverence and conformity, while the “protest dancers” symbolise the new generation that was born out of the uprising, a vivid, colourful and diverse mix of people who say culture has become the new frontline in the ongoing fight for democracy in post-revolutionary Tunisia.

“Dancing is not only a non-violent protest, the body is itself an expression of liberation and of well-being."
Recently, the rap singer who goes by the name ‘Weld el 15’ was condemned to two years in prison in retaliation for his song Boulicia Kleb (meaning “policeman are dogs”), which was viewed over 650,000 times on YouTube. The music video’s director and lead actress each received six-month sentences.

“The police often use the law against drugs to arrest singers, in particular rap singers, because of the use of marijuana,” Adnen Meddeb, a young film-maker who shot the revolution from inside Tunisia, tells IPS.

Oussama Bouajila and Chahine Berriche, two graffiti artists from the group Zwelwa (meaning “the poor”) were arrested on Nov. 3, 2012 for the mural they painted on the walls of the industrial city of Gabes, entitled, “The people want rights for the poor”. Their verdict was released on Apr. 10: each was charged a 50-dollar fine for “defacing government property” and ordered to clean the walls.

Zwela has denounced the artists’ trial as a “political trial, which reminds us of the methods used under Ben Ali.”

The Ministry of Interior has emerged as one of the most common sites of cultural resistance where, every Wednesday, a group of activists stage a sit-in to protest the Feb. 6 assassination of Chokri Belaïd, leader of the leftist Popular Front opposition coalition.

A demonstration in honour of slain opposition leader Chokri Belaid in Burghiba Avenue in Tunis. Credit: Giuliana Sgrena/IPS

“Every Wednesday we sit here to force the ministry to answer the question: ‘Who killed Belaïd?’,” Amor Ghadamsi, painter and general secretary of the Tunisian Artists Trade Union, tells IPS.

He says the assassination was the “gravest incident in a climate of mounting violence, and it shocked the country. Before this, people did not realise the extent of the danger they faced. Now we want the Tunisian authorities to investigate and find the perpetrators,” he stressed.

The artists took up this weekly demonstration after a statue they produced to honour Belaïd’s death, erected outside the slain leaders’ home, was destroyed by the Salafists. “Culture is our resistance now,” Ghadamsi said, referring to the widespread use of graffiti, and the proliferation of political rap with lyrics that honour the revolution.

The choice to hold the protest outside a government building symbolises a growing distrust with the ruling Ennahda Party, which contested – and won – the country’s first free elections in October 2011 on a moderate, secular platform.

But the group has come under fire for allowing religious extremists to operate with impunity.

One of these extremist groups is the League for the Protection of the Revolution (LPR), an association that is widely believed to have close ties to the  government and has been involved in many confrontations with opposition parties and activists with the Union General Tunisienne du Travail (UGTT), the country’s leading trade union.

LPR members claimed responsibility for the fatal beating of Lotfi Nakbou, a leader of the Nida Tounes party in the southern Tunisian city of Tataouine in October 2012, and for the destruction of the statue of Belaid.

“These people work in the name of Ennahda. They are people from Ennahda, close to Ennahdha, former convicts hired by Ennahda, and people whose consciences Ennahda has bought,” Jilani Hammami, spokesperson of the Workers’ Party, insisted in an interview with Tunisia Live back in January.

Though the government has dismissed the claim, locals here point out that the LPR are never persecuted for their criminal actions. The UGTT has called repeatedly for the dissolution of the LPR to no avail.

With the government turning a blind eye to violence, scores of Tunisians feel they have no choice but to turn to immaginative, creative and non-violent protests.

Their staunch ally during the revolution, the Internet has resurfaced as a crucial tool in the cultural war, which activists say began in earnest on Mar. 25, 2012 when Salafist gangs attacked artists celebrating World Theatre Day on Bourguiba Avenue in central Tunis. Witnesses to that scene told IPS the police either assisted the mobs, or simply stood by.

Dances like the Harlem Shake and other cultural protest videos quickly go viral, sometimes even attracting the attention of the mainstream media.

Meanwhile young Tunisians have repeatedly “occupied” Bourguiba Avenue to commemorate the clashes that sparked this wave of cultural resistance, halting traffic by sitting in the middle of the street to read books in an act of defiance against state security forces.

In the same vein, a group calling itself Art Solution initiated the “I will dance in spite of everything” movement. Directed by Bahri ben Yahmed, the dancers perform in every possible public space they can claim: in front of the national theatre, in the Belvedere gardens, in Kasbah Square, but also in the poor outskirts of Tunis.

Often, on-lookers and passersby join the dancers, creating the feeling of the kind of spontaneous protests that were familiar sights during the early days of the revolt.

“Dancing is not only a non-violent protest, the body is itself an expression of liberation and of well-being,” commented the writer Jamila Ben Mustapha.

(END)

Tunisian families have begun to dread knocks on their doors, or late-night phone calls, fearing that the messenger will bear the news that their son has been smuggled out of the country to join the “jihad” in Syria.

Semi Ghesmi, a Salafist student and elected head of the National Students Union in Tunisia, supports what he calls the “jihad” in Syria. Credit: Giuliana Sgrena/IPS

Families here told IPS that they have no way of contacting their sons once they leave — whether by choice or coercion they will never know — for the warring nation nearly 3,000 miles away. At most, family members receive an inaudible telephone call from Libya, where the soon-to-be militants are trained, the muffled voice on the other end of the line saying a quiet and final goodbye.

After that point, no news is good news. If they are contacted again, it will only be an anonymous caller announcing the death of a son, brother or husband, adding that the family should be proud of their martyred loved one.

The next day, the family might find a CD, slipped under the door, containing filmed footage of the burial.

There are no reliable data on exactly when young Tunisian men began rushing to join the Free Syrian Army, currently engaged in a battle to depose Syrian president Bashar al-Assad, but experts and civil society activists are agreed on one thing: the number is increasing.

On Mar. 29, local sources reported that between 6,000 and 10,000 men have left the country, while the Algerian press say the number could be closer to 12,000.

Families tell IPS the self-proclaimed jihadists leave in secret, often under cover of darkness, and change their names en route so that Facebook and internet searches yield no results. They believe mosques and charity organisations serve as fronts for this “recruitment” process.

Widely considered the cradle of the Arab Spring, Tunisia has gained a reputation as a progressive country, bolstered by the strong democratic current that toppled former dictator Zine Abadine Ben Ali in January 2011. The election of the moderate Islamist party Ennahda in October 2011 further raised hopes that the country would stay on track towards a more inclusive future.

But beneath the moderate veneer, a strong ultra-conservative undercurrent remained, steered by Salafist-controlled mosques – like Fath, Ennassr, Ettadhamen, and the great mosque of Ben Arous located on the outskirts of Tunis – that are now serving as headquarters for the smuggling of fighters.

A true revolution is made by the people, not by jihadis coming from other countries.
The imams of these mosques often hail from the Gulf and are skilled at convincing young men – who run the gamut from poor, uneducated Tunisians, to wealthy professionals — that they must “help their Syrian brothers” in the “jihad” against Assad.

Charity organisations like Karama wa Horrya, Arrahma, Horrya wa Insaf, which provide basic humanitarian assistance to the poor, also play a role in this network that gathers able-bodied Tunisians, transports them to Libya and then, after a brief stop in Turkey, sends them onwards to the frontlines of the Syrian war such as the north-western border with Lebanon, and the city of Aleppo.

Young fighters’ first point of contact in Syria is with the Jabhat al Nusra (meaning the ‘Support Front for the People of Syria’), considered the most aggressively militant arm of the FSA.

Beyond these vague details, very little is known about the actual recruitment process. The only credible information comes from wounded jihadis who are sent back to Tunisia if their injuries have resulted in handicaps that render them unfit for battle. Most die in the fighting and those that return are often too afraid to speak of their experiences.

Tunisian youth, who played a crucial role in the 2011 revolution here, have conflicting views about the Syrian uprising, and their countrymen’s participation in it.

For some, like Semi Ghesmi, elected representative of the technological department of the National Student Union, Syrians are engaged in an outright jihad in the strictly religious sense of the term, meaning a battle between “good” Muslims and “kafirs”, or infidels. In this war, the FSA has the moral highground and must be supported.

Others like Nassira, a student at the Manouba University in Tunis, say the Syrian conflict “is not a revolution like the Tunisian one”. In her opinion, a true revolution is “made by the people, not by jihadists coming from other Muslim countries”. She favours the Tunisian model, which was dictated not by a small circle of extremists but by the majority of the people.

During the recent World Social Forum, held in Tunis from Mar. 26-30, the division between supporters and opponents of the Syrian rebels came to light when local participants burned FSA flags in the streets.

Jihadis – or racketeers?

Most families who spoke to IPS were too afraid to give their names, fearing reprisals. They suspect powerful and wealthy interests have a hand in the smuggling of fighters, since some families have received as much as 4,000 dollars in “payment” for each jihadi recruit.

Those who spoke to IPS under condition of anonymity believe the recruiters themselves also receive a fee. Many denounced the government for allowing this “business” in human lives to thrive.

A local journalist who has been investigating the process, but did not want to be identified by name, told IPS the government almost certainly makes money off this racket as well.

Experts believe Ennahda leader Rachid Ghannouchi’s statement, issued through the Ministry of Religion, that “we don’t suggest young people leave… but we have no right to prevent them” is tantamount to an admission that the government has no plans to put a stop to the practice, or apprehend those involved.

Observers find further proof of the government’s complicity in an agreement, signed in the Libyan capital Tripoli on Dec. 11, 2011 by Ennahda’s Ghannouchi; Burhan Ghalioun, former chief of the Syrian National Council (SNC); and Mustafa Abdel Jalil, former chairman of the Libyan National Transitional Council (NTC), outlining plans to send weapons, along with Tunisian and Libyan jihadis, to Syria. The contents of the agreement were leaked to the public last year.

Not content with recruiting only men, clerics have begun to urge women and girls – some as young as 14 years – to take up “jihad through marriage” by travelling to Syria to satisfy the sexual needs of anti-Assad forces.

The phenomenon picked up speed after a Saudi religious scholar named Mohamed al-Arifi issued a fatwa in December 2012 allowing the “temporary marriage”, sometimes lasting just a few hours, of young girls to Syrian insurgents. Though he has subsequently revoked the edict, following a public outcry, the practice continues.

Here again, numbers are impossible to pin down – but IPS has heard of several cases in the last three months of Tunisian teenage girls who have gone missing, which has sparked fears of a new form of religiously sanctioned sexual trafficking.

(END)

The Palestinian struggle took centre stage at the 2013 World Social Forum. Credit: Monika Prokopczuk/IPS

By Justin Hyatt
TUNIS, Apr 4 2013 (IPS)

The conference drew both supporters and opponents of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad; conflicting opinions about the Polisario Front and the politics of Western Sahara; Palestinian activists and the Jewish Anti-Zionist Network. In short, the 13^th edition of the World Social Forum, held in Tunis on Mar. 26-30, was a melting pot of struggles and a search for common ground.

To the thousands of participants gathered in Tunis – where determined public protests toppled former dictator Zine El Abidine Ben Ali in January 2011 – it was clear that a key function of the annual meeting is to build solidarity across movements for peace, justice and freedom.

Widely recognised as the cradle of the Arab Spring, Tunis was selected as the site for this year’s WSF in part to pay homage to the deceased fruit vendor, Mohamed Bouazizi, whose self-immolation sparked the Tunisian revolt and the ongoing Arab Spring.

Together in what is now an iconic city, over two years after the Tunisian revolution, activists reaffirmed their commitment to international unity.

“Our mission is to create a new form of solidarity, which is opposite to competition and exists to engender equities,” Mamdouh Habashi, member of the Egyptian Socialist Party and the South-South People’s Solidarity Network, told IPS, calling this “the spirit” of South-South cooperation.

The network comprises numerous grassroots movements throughout the world, and sees itself as a champion of democracy, equated here with people’s power and social progress.

For Rita Silva from the No-Vox Network, founded during the first European Social Forum in 2002, international solidarity could be the make or break factor in a successful movement. When the No-Vox Network addresses formidable tasks such as preventing evictions or demolitions in developing countries, she said, international support is key.

Those struggling in countries like Angola or Zimbabwe, for example, are largely cut off from the rest of the world. “They can easily be killed and no one says anything – but if they are connected (to international networks), they have protection,” she said.

Representing the International Alliance of Inhabitants, Mike Davies stressed the need to have a functioning platform from which local communities can speak to the world. Problems often arise, he said, when northern NGOs mediate the voices of their constituencies, who are either forced to learn the jargon of the NGO world or get lost in the process.

“Our sole focus is to strengthen communities to (enable) them to help themselves, and not continue to be victims of charity,” Davies said.

Although the Arab Spring has inspired protest movements for democratic change around the world, not all of its outcomes are cause for celebration. The Syrian civil war, which has so far claimed over 60,000 casualties according to conservative estimates, served as a grim reminder to the WSF participants that the consequences for failing to find common ground can be catastrophic.

Sara Ajlyakin, an activist in the Syrian uprising, stressed that while the outcome of the conflict is not yet clear, it has opened up vital spaces for organising and building unity.

“It is a historical advance that can not be reversed,” Ajlyakin told IPS. “We felt the power of the streets, the collective, and no one can take that away.”

Until the Arab Spring, she said, the population of Syria had no outlet for its frustrations and grievances. “But that is gone now – if you are a woman, a worker, a student, a member of the LGBT community, whichever walk of life you come from, you can now collectively express your opinion.”

Acknowledging that conflicting visions and ideologies impact the nature of a movement of conflict, Ajlyakin dismissed the notion of “Islamists versus secularists” as a false binary.

The only binary she recognises is between “revolutionary and anti-revolutionary” activity. “The Islamists are not the devil,” she said. “By isolating them you encourage the historical mistake of the Arab Left, which equates secularism with atheism.”

“It is my job to communicate a message to political Islamists: ‘I’m not planning to eliminate you, I’m a part of you, you’re a part of me, but you also can’t isolate me’,” she said, echoing the conference’s theme of sowing unity, rather than division.

In the true spirit of international solidarity, the Palestinian cause took centre stage at the Forum, with the concluding event consisting of a march through Tunis that ended at the Palestinian embassy to commemorate Palestinian Land Day.

According to Amjad Shawa, director of the Palestinian Non-Governmental Organisations Network, it was “fully apparent” that the Palestinians were in the minds and hearts of the participants here.

“Solidarity comes from all sides,”  Shawa told IPS, naming the presence of such organisations as the Jewish Anti-Zionist Network who came to the Forum and demonstrated alongside the large Palestinian delegation.

(END)

Refugees from the Choucha camp in Tunisia are demanding recognition of their legal status. Credit: Alberto Pradilla/IPS

By Alberto Pradilla
TUNIS, Mar 31 2013 (IPS)

“We need a solution. The U.N. has created the problem, and they should do their work and fix it,” says Bright, a young Nigerian stuck in the Choucha refugee camp in Tunisia, a few kilometres from the Libyan border.

Bright and hundreds of other refugees have spent the last two years in a camp that has turned into a no man’s land. They are mainly immigrants from sub-Saharan Africa who were living in Libya but fled the country at the start of the armed clashes that led to the fall of the regime of Muammar Gaddafi (1969-2011).

Of the thousands who originally crossed the border, 250 are left, from different countries. Their refugee status is not recognised, and officially they don’t exist. The United Nations rejected their applications for asylum, and they can’t return to their countries of origin or Libya, where blacks are suspected of being loyalists or mercenaries and face repression.

They are living in extreme conditions, and their plight is ignored by international institutions and the Tunisian government.

During this week’s World Social Forum, held in Tunis, a group of 50 refugees made it to the capital to demand a solution. Thirty-seven of them declared a hunger strike on Friday Mar. 29 outside the office of the U.N. refugee agency (UNHCR).

The hunger strikers pledged to continue their fast until a solution was found. The situation of the refugees will become even more complex if the camp is closed in June, as the UNHCR has announced.

“In my country I was active in political issues, so I was persecuted. That’s why I went to Libya,” Mousa Ibrahim, from Chad, tells IPS. People from Chad are the largest group in Choucha, numbering around 80.

“I registered in the camp because they promised that they would recognise us as refugees,” he complains. But more than 48 months have gone by; his daughter Jalida was born in Choucha, and his situation has merely gotten worse and worse.

“The Tunisian refugee commission has rejected me. They say I have two options: to go back to my country or return to Libya. In Chad I would be thrown into prison or killed. And in Libya, black people are persecuted. I just want to be recognised as a refugee and allowed to go to a country where I can live in safety,” he says.

Two years ago, the Libyan conflict triggered an exodus that overwhelmed Ras Jdir, the main border crossing into Tunisia from Libya, and led to its temporary closure.

The UNCHR gradually transferred most of the refugees from the Choucha camp. The remaining families, from Chad, Nigeria, the Western Sahara, the Darfur region in Sudan, or Palestine, complain that they were left out of the transfer, for one reason or another.
At first, dozens of organisations were working to address the humanitarian crisis in the camp. But now, hardly any aid is arriving. The refugees continue to sleep in the tents in the camp, but the assistance is drying up.

Food stopped arriving five months ago, and they do what they can to find food. And since their applications for refugee status have been rejected, they don’t have the right to be relocated to another country. In practice, it is as if they didn’t exist.

“We aren’t immigrants and we aren’t trying to go to another country because we’re looking for work. The problem is political: we are refugees,” Bright tells IPS during a sit-in outside of the European Union office in Tunisia on Wednesday Mar. 27.

Frightened by the prospect of the closure of the camp in June, the refugees have begun to mobilise.

But survival itself is difficult, let alone carrying out a campaign to raise awareness of their plight and demand solutions.

On one hand are the economic problems. They hardly scrape by, and need the help of Tunisian and foreign activists who collect funds to pay for their trips. Then there are the obstacles put in place by the Tunisian government, which has sent in police to keep the refugees from moving about.

That happened in January, when around 100 of them managed to reach the capital, where they spent five days informing people about their situation. And it happened again before the World Social Forum. When they were heading out of the camp, the police stopped their buses at Ben Gardane, 443 km south of Tunis.

But half of the refugees who had set out, including Ibrahim and Bright, made it.

Their signs were visible at the entrance to the World Social Forum, held Mar. 26-30 on the El Manar university campus. The placards were also seen outside official buildings like the U.S. and British embassies.

Their demand is clear: a solution to leave behind the limbo in which they are living.

But although the question of the refugees came up in several workshops this week at the WSF – the largest global gathering of organised civil society opposed to the direction globalisation is taking – and many activists expressed solidarity with their cause, no clear statement was issued urging the U.N. to reconsider their status.

“This is a real case, not theory,” Bright complains. His tired eyes show how fed up he is with all the doors being slammed in his face, and reflect his lack of confidence in institutions that have failed to help him and his fellow refugees.

The refugees say official representatives have tried to negotiate in parallel with the different national communities in the camp, while the deadline of closure looms.

The WSF ended Saturday in Tunis with a closing act and a demonstration for the Palestinians’ Land Day. Meanwhile, the unrecognised refugees will stay here, waiting for a solution.

Booths and stands at the World Social Forum on the El Manar campus in Tunis. Credit: Alberto Pradilla/IPS

By Alberto Pradilla
TUNIS, Mar 29 2013 (IPS)

The World Social Forum’s traditional focus on economic, political and social injustice caused by globalisation shifted towards the revolts and unrest of the Arab Spring, in the current edition of the global gathering in Tunisia.

The WSF “contributed in Latin America to the construction of governments that are with the popular classes. We hope that will also happen in the Arab world,” said Tarek Ben Hiba, a human rights activist in Tunisia and France.

He was referring to the Tunisian left’s expectations with respect to the 12th annual WSF taking place Mar. 26-30 in the capital, Tunis, where demonstrations forced President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali from power in January 2011.

The WSF got its start in the southern Brazilian city of Porto Alegre in 2001, drawing together hundreds of NGOs and movements critical of the direction taken by the globalisation process.

The 2013 WSF was organised in Tunisia, the cradle of the Arab revolts, to express support for the processes of change triggered by the December 2010 self-immolation of Mohamed Bouazizi, an impoverished fruit vendor whose desperate last act sparked the Tunisian revolution and, ultimately, the ongoing Arab Spring.

The first WSF edition hosted by an Arab country has become a reflection of the achievements and pending challenges in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya and Syria, and of the contradictions and unresolved clashing visions.

On one hand is the broad conflict between secularists and Islamists, especially in Tunisia and Egypt. And on the other is the war raging in Syria and the uncertainty and instability in Libya.

The conflict in Syria has been one of the main sources of tension in the WSF workshops and panels held this week across the Tunis El Manar University campus.

Supporters and opponents of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad have been sharing space on a campus that has been turned into an encampment of heterogeneous global struggles.

On Thursday, for example, while four Syrian communist and two Kurd organisations discussed future action against the regime, supporters of al-Assad held a rally in the central square. The two groups did not cross paths, so no confrontation took place, but the tension was palpable.

Participants in the debate held by the Syrian communists and Kurds told IPS that they had agreed on a document recognising the importance of the individual and collective rights of all ethnic groups in Syria, which is especially significant for the Kurds, the largest minority.

They also agreed to hold a day of solidarity with the Syrian uprising, in the first week of May.

The sources said a congress was being planned for June, to bring together “the Syrian, European and Latin American internationalist left” to coordinate support for the revolt.

The situation in Libya has been another source of tension. On Wednesday, two groups clashed when one of them tried to hold up a sign in support of Muammar Gaddafi (who governed the country from 1969 to October 2011, when he was captured and killed by rebel forces).

That provoked a reaction by supporters of the uprising, who have several stands at the WSF, where the revolution’s tricolour flag and the flag of the nomadic Berber or Amazigh people can be seen.

“We are better off than they are saying,” Fatma, a woman from Tripoli who belongs to an organisation fighting for women’s participation in political life, told IPS. “There are problems, but we are learning from scratch, because there was no civil society before.”

The disputes between Islamists and secularists that are heating up the political processes in Tunisia and Egypt have also been reflected at this week’s WSF.

One of the novel aspects with respect to previous WSF sessions is the presence of organisations with ties to mosques, in booths on campus as well as specific protests.

For example, for over a month, female university students have staged a sit-in on campus to protest university regulations that prohibit the niqab – the full Muslim veil that only shows the eyes. Muslim students argue that the ban violates their freedom of religion.

The protests are occurring in a climate of growing clashes since the assassination of leftist politician Shokri Belaid in February.

“The participants in the Forum are demanding freedom, which is why we’re asking for your support,” said Nabi Wahbi, one of the young demonstrators taking part in the pro-niqab protest.

The integration of these groups in an environment marked by the struggle for women’s rights is a challenge for these gatherings.

Progressive groups in Tunisia accuse Islamists of trying to impose Sharia, or Islamic law, and of undermining the rights of women.

But the Arab revolutionary processes are not the only challenge facing this week’s WSF. There are also deeply-rooted nationalist conflicts.

The central ones involve Palestine and the Western Sahara. But while Palestine is the main cause espoused by several delegations, the Sahrawis are facing off with the enormous delegation from Morocco, who tried to discredit the demands for independence of the inhabitants of the former Spanish colony.

“The Polisario Front is lying,” read a sign referring to the political movement leading the struggle for the independence of Western Sahara, proclaimed the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic in 1976 by the independence fighters.

Moroccan activist Benis Ghitah complained about the Sahrawi refugees, who have been living for decades in remote camps in southwest Algeria.

But the Sahrawis combat the campaign against them. “Morocco tries to confuse people,” Dih Naocha told IPS, who expressed fears because this was the first time representatives of the Sahrawi people had come to Tunisia to defend their rights.

The change of region by the WSF also involved a shift in focus. But it is also true that, as Ben Hiba indicated, the WSF sessions in the first decade of the 21st century served as support for emancipatory processes in Latin America – something that the revolutionary Arab forces hope to repeat with this week’s event.

Bloggers, human rights groups and activists of different stripes have had a chance to meet face to face. Time will reveal the results.

A youth delegation from Tunis heads to the countryside to spread the word of the World Social Forum. Credit: Monika Prokopczuk/IPS

By Justin Hyatt
TUNIS, Mar 22 2013 (IPS)

In the final countdown to this year’s World Social Forum (WSF), Tunisian civil society and the country’s capital, Tunis, prepares for an influx of over 50,000 visitors. With the dates of the forum set for Mar. 26-30, uncompleted tasks are being fast-tracked while the university campus that will host the forum is being given a security face-lift.

The biggest question on the minds of the organisers and their international guests is the security situation in the country. It was only last month, on Feb. 6, that popular left-wing politician Chokri Belaid was murdered near his home in Tunis. His death led to political uncertainty and eventually the resignation of Prime Minister Hamadi Jebali, as well as protests on the street.

Legitimate concerns that the country might slip into turmoil and instability have spread fast and are keeping visitors at bay.

“We get many emails every day from people who are worried about this,” said Haifa Nakib, who is in charge of logistics and administration of the WSF. “I tell them: ‘Don’t believe all the hype on TV! Tunisia is not at war and the situation here is peaceful. There is no terrorism here, in fact the government is even going to secure the location’.”

The government is indeed cooperating fully with the organisers of the massive gathering, and has even deployed a security team to locations surrounding the campus, which organisers hope will be “discreet”.

Cheima Ben Hamida, a volunteer coordinator, informed IPS that security would also be provided to organisers inside the campus. She is further comforted by the fact that the government “has instructed all its ministries to aid the WSF to the fullest extent possible”.

Meanwhile, enthusiasm over the event is at full throttle. Over 4,500 organisations from over 85 countries have registered. France and Tunisia top the list of participants: each plans to have representatives from over 300 groups present. Brazil, Belgium, Italy and Morocco are also high up, with each represented by at least 50 organisations.

The U.S. is also sending its largest WSF delegation to date. With 66 groups currently registered, this marks the highest level of participation from the North American country. Canada is likewise dispatching a large contingent.

Among the many topics to be addressed and debated are women’s rights, youth and culture. Though the main theme of the Forum is the Arab Spring, other issues — from the global economic crisis to the global ecological crisis — will be given due importance.

Demonstrating their commitment to the success of the event, the Tunisian immigration authorities have made participation accessible to visitors from countries without diplomatic accords or the presence of embassies. Fresh arrivals who produce a letter of invitation will be granted an entry visa. Thus, citizens of countries like Peru or Israel will have no problem attending the meet.

The third edition of the World Free Media Forum (WFMF) will be held simultaneously, starting on Mar. 24 and carrying on throughout the entire duration of the WSF.

Several hundred media representatives are expected to participate in workshops, discussions and media coverage of the forum. A free media village has been set up for this purpose, while non-profit community radio has been targeted as a preferred media format.

Another “forum within the forum” will be an international youth camp, which will bring together young people aged 18 to 30 and provide a space to organise sports, dances, cooking competitions and debates.

Khalil Teber, a member of the youth commission and co-organiser of the youth forum, shared his excitement with IPS: “We are providing the youth with a space of their own. Activities have been planned for day and night – it will be like four days without sleep.”

“Our vision,” added Teber, “is to present Tunisian youth to the world, including the version of the Tunisian revolution as the youth see it. And we want all Tunisian youth there, regardless of their political stripes.”

Besides being a celebration of the birthplace of the Arab Spring, this year’s convergence is significant for another reason: participants plans to discuss, in detail, the future of the World Social Forum.

It is clear to all those attending and organising the event that numerous other social and grassroots mobilisations – such as the Occupy movement – continue to play a major role. While not able to replace this forum, they do point to the need for the WSF to reflect and then evolve. This entails the integration of sundry movements and initiatives into the evolutionary process of the WSF.

“If the content is effective and the social forum becomes refreshed with this edition, then it will move forward,” according to Ben Hamida.

Romdhane Ben Amor, the man in charge of communication at WSF, stressed: “What is really important is what comes after the forum. A new way of thinking needs to emerge, a new vision of the world. If the forum can help both Tunisian and worldwide social movements to build on their strengths and find new ways of cooperation, then it will have been a success.”

A protest rally in Tunis in support of free expression. Credit: Lassad Ben Achour/IPS.

By Justin Hyatt
TUNIS, Feb 28 2013 (IPS)

The extent to which Tunisians are able to express themselves freely is an ever-changing phenomenon. While the country is still in the grips of turmoil after the recent killing of left-wing politician Chokri Belaid, which sparked some of the largest protests since the initial revolution in 2011 that toppled Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, the airing of dissent has become second nature for many.

It is widely agreed that freedom of speech is the most significant achievement in the wake of the collapse of the former regime. Veteran Tunisian journalist Sofiane Ben Hamida says fear of speaking one’s mind too loudly was once the order of the day. “In the former regime, someone sitting at a café would be afraid to just voice their political opinions too loudly. This is now ancient history.”

This positive development notwithstanding, it is still sometimes a rough transition. A number of incidents have been recorded where journalists have had their camera stolen or even been beaten up. Some journalists have also received death threats for being too outspoken.

Tawfik Ben Brick, a well-known public figure, has faced repeated harassment over his journal ‘Dhed Assolta’ (‘Against the Power’). He had been accused of assault on a woman during the Ben Ali era and has more recently had issues of his magazine confiscated in bulk by the police.

“Better protection of journalists is needed,” says Fathi Zabaar, an independent consultant and formerly with Freedom House Tunisia. “While there are significant advances being made towards a freer society, journalists and the public should be spared all harassment, and when needed, the government should be there to protect its citizens.”

According to Hichem Snoussi from the international NGO Article 19, which is dedicated to safeguarding freedom of expression, Tunisian media is free, yet these freedoms do not have full legal bearing in Tunisian law.

A number of decrees are currently being drafted and debated, and are intended to provide legal structures for the media and for access to information.

Article 19 has also provided a thorough legal analysis of the draft constitution, and is putting pressure on the National Constituent Assembly (ANC) to go further than the initial draft to make sure that international standards are considered.

Much of the national debate is on the Internet. In a country where roughly one out of three persons has a Facebook account, the realm of social media is exploited to the hilt. According to Zabaar, something akin to an Internet militia is also spreading rumours and hate speech, especially on Facebook.

“There is a given pattern to the choice of language employed as well,” says Zabaar. “The right-wing groups tend voice their opinions in Arabic, while those representing the left side of the spectrum frequently use the French language.”

The range of new media is quite fully explored in Tunisia. Adherents of data journalism can plug into fhimt.com, which takes an approach to interpreting events that is based on graphical data analysis and comparison charts.

At the same time, those concerned with privacy and surveillance issues attend meetings dedicated to cryptography, and the ‘hacktivist’ group Anonymous is also alive and well in Tunisia.

Or consider the Tunisian version of Telecomix, which describes itself as a ” sociocyphernetic telecommunist cluster of internet and data loving bots and people” and sees its role as one of defending the free flow of information.

Nader Yamoun, a Tunis-based entrepreneur and open data activist, set up an anti-corruption portal, which promotes open data in Tunisian society. “In this regard, Tunisia can boast of real progress. The first open data platform was created in the U.S. in 2009. France followed in 2011, and we got one in Tunisia in 2012.”

While much work in this area has clearly still to be done, Zabaar sees the current stage of Tunisia’s transition towards a free society as one of growing up and joining the ranks of other functioning, albeit flawed democracies.

“Whatever they say, we do now have a strong base for a sound democracy.” (End)

Tunisia’s prime minister has said that he will dissolve the Islamist-led government and form a national unity administration, following the killing of prominent secular opposition figure Shokri Belaid in front of his home.

Hamadi Jebali announced during a speech to the nation on Wednesday he will form a technocrat government.

“After the failure of negotiations between parties on a cabinet reshuffle, I decided to form a small technocrat government,” said Jebali.

He said the ministers would not run for office but elections would subsequently be held as soon as possible.

An official source told Reuters earlier on that Jebali’s decision was a personal one taken in the interests of the country.

Belaid, leader of the left-leaning Democratic Patriots party, was killed on Wednesday as he was leaving his home.

He was transported to a hospital in the suburbs of Tunis where he died of his wounds, his brother confirmed.

Following news of Belaid’s death, violence and protests broke out on the streets of Tunis.

Al Jazeera’s Ahmed Janabi in Tunis reported violent clashes between Belaid’s supporters and police along the main Habib Borguiba Avenue, with the police using tear gas and batons to disperse the protesters and making numerous arrests.

Earlier, crowds of mourners, chanting “the people want the fall of the regime”, crowded around an ambulance carrying Belaid’s body.

As the protests intensified, four Tunisian opposition groups, including the Popular Front, of which the Democratic Patriots is a component, announced they were pulling out of the national assembly and called for a general strike.

Critical of Islamists

Belaid had been critical of Tunisia’s leadership, especially the Islamist party Ennahda that dominates the government.

He had accused authorities of not doing enough to stop violence by ultraconservatives who have targeted mausoleums, art exhibits and other things seen as out of keeping with their strict interpretation of Islam.

Samir Dilou, a government spokesperson, called Belaid’s killing an “odious crime”.

Moncef Marzouki, the Tunisian president, said he would fight those who opposed the political transition in his country after the death of Belaid.

Marzouki, who cut short a visit to France on Wednesday, told legislators at the European Parliament in Strasbourg to applause: “We will continue to fight the enemies of the revolution.”

Marzouki also cancelled a visit to Egypt scheduled for Thursday after the killing, which brought thousands of protesters onto the streets outside the Interior Ministry.

Chanting for the fall of the Ennahda-led government, demonstrators shouted “Shame, shame Shokri died”, “Where is the government?”, and “The government should fall”.

Omar bin Ali, a member of the Tunisian Trade Unions, was present at the demonstration site and said “the Islamists were responsible for Belaid’s death”.

“This is what they have been calling for in mosques,” bin Ali told Al Jazeera.

Ruling out the possibility of external factors, he said “Tunisia is a friend of all nations. It is hard to think of anyone from abroad to do this to us,” adding that “the people want the whole government out as they proved to be useless”.

Ongoing instability

The assassination comes as Tunisia is struggling to maintain stability and revive its economy after its longtime dictator was overthrown in an uprising two years ago.

Mohamed Jamour, another opposition leader, criticised the government in a press conference on Wednesday for failing to protect Belaid against stated threats.

“Threats of plunging into a whirlpool of violence that can be caused by a number of bodies, the state, the revolution guarding committees and armed groups,” Jamour said.

“Only yesterday, a number of questions were raised … and Shokri repeatedly emphasised this particular issue. He personally had felt threats to his personal safety. Yesterday I listened on the radio … a friend of Shokri, in broad daylight, said, “Warn that armed people are going after him.”

That revolution set off revolts across the Arab world and unleashed new social and religious tensions.

Ennahda won 42 percent of seats in the first post-Arab uprising elections in October 2011 and formed a government in coalition with two secular parties, Marzouki’s Congress for the Republic and Ettakatol.

However, the government has faced many protests over economic hardship.

*Pubished under an agreement with Al Jazeera.

By Ignacio Ramonet
PARIS, France, Jan 9 2013 (IPS)

Having survived the announced end of the world on Dec. 21, we can now try to foretell our immediate future, based on geopolitical principles that will help us understand the overall shifts of global powers and assess the major risks and dangers.

Ignacio Ramonet

Looking at a map of the world, we can immediately see some hotspots lit up in red. Four of them represent high levels of danger: Europe, Latin America, the Middle East and Asia.

In the European Union (EU), 2013 will be the worst year since the beginning of the crisis in 2008. Austerity is the only creed and deep cuts to the welfare state continue because Germany, which for the first time in history dominates Europe and is ruling it with an iron fist, wills it so.

In Spain, political tensions will rise as the Generalitat de Catalunya (Government of Catalonia) decides the terms of a local referendum on independence for this autonomous community (province), a process that will be watched with great interest by the separatists in Euskadi, the Basque Country.

As for the economy, already in dire straits, it all depends on what happens – in the Italian elections in February; and on how the markets react to a possible win by conservative candidate Mario Monti, who has the support of Berlin and the Vatican, or by centre-left candidate Pier Luigi Bersani, who is the frontrunner in the polls.

Social explosions could occur in any of the countries of southern Europe (Greece, Portugal, Italy or Spain), exasperated as their people are with the constant cutbacks. The EU will not emerge from the doldrums in 2013, and everything could get worse if, on top of it all, the response of the markets is brutal (as neoliberals are urging) in France under the very moderate socialist President François Hollande.

In Latin America, 2013 will also be a year of challenges. In the first place, in Venezuela, which since 1999 has been a driver of progressive changes throughout the region, the unforeseen relapse in the health of President Hugo Chávez – re-elected Oct. 7 – is creating uncertainty.

There will also be elections on Feb. 17 in Ecuador. President Rafael Correa, another key Latin American leader, is expected to be re-elected. On Nov. 10 important elections will be held in Honduras, where former president Manuel Zelaya was toppled on Jun. 28, 2009. The Electoral Tribunal has authorised the registration of the Partido Libertad y Refundación (LIBRE – Freedom and Refoundation Party), led by Zelaya.

Chileans are due to go to the polls on Nov. 17. The unpopularity of conservative President Sebastián Piñera opens the way for a possible victory by socialist candidate and former president Michelle Bachelet.

International attention will be focused on Cuba as talks continue in Havana between the Colombian government and the Armed Revolutionary Forces of Colombia (FARC) with the aim of putting an end to Latin America’s last armed conflict.

Meanwhile, there again appears to be a stalemate in the Middle East, the location of the most disturbing events in the world.

The Arab Spring uprisings toppled several dictators in the region: Zine Ben Ali in Tunisia, Hosni Mubarak in Egypt and Muammar Gaddafi in Libya.

But subsequent elections allowed reactionary Islamist parties, like the Muslim Brotherhood, to come to power. Now, as we are seeing in Egypt, they want to hold onto it at all costs, to the consternation of the secular segments of society who had been the first to rise up in protest, and are refusing to accept this new form of authoritarianism. Tunisia faces the same problem.

After following with interest the explosions of freedom in the spring of 2011, European societies have again become apathetic about what is going on in the Middle East.

For example, the inexorably deepening civil war in Syria clearly shows how the big Western powers (the United States, the United Kingdom and France), allies of Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkey, have decided to support – with money, arms and instructors – the Sunni Islamist insurgents. On all fronts, they are gaining ground. How long can the government of President Bashar al-Assad last?

In the face of the “Shiite Front” (Lebanon’s Hezbollah, Syria and Iran), the United States has built a broad regional “Sunni Front” (from Turkey and Saudi Arabia to Morocco, including Egypt, Libya and Tunisia). Its goal: to overthrow Bashar al-Assad and deprive Teheran of its big regional ally by next spring.

Why? Because on Jun. 14 Iran will hold presidential elections, in which incumbent President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is not eligible to stand. In other words, for the next six months Iran will be immersed in a violent election campaign between partisans of a hard anti-Washington line and supporters of negotiations.

Given this situation in Iran, Israel will no doubt be preparing for a possible attack on Iran’s nuclear installations. The Jan. 22 elections in Israel will probably result in victory for the ultra-conservative coalition that supports Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who is all for bombing Iran as soon as possible.

Meanwhile, U.S. President Barack Obama is looking toward Asia, a priority region for Washington since it decided on a strategic redirection of its foreign policy. The United States is attempting to curb the expansion of China by surrounding that country with military bases and relying on the support of its traditional partners: Japan, South Korea and Taiwan.

China’s seas have become the areas with the greatest potential for armed conflict in the Asia Pacific region. Tensions between Beijing and Tokyo caused by the sovereignty dispute over the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands could be heightened following the Dec. 16 electoral victory of Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party, led by the new Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe, who is a nationalist hawk.

China is moving full speed ahead with the modernisation of its navy. On Sept. 25 it launched its first aircraft carrier, the Liaoning, with the intention of intimidating its neighbours. Beijing is increasingly intolerant of the U.S. military presence in Asia. A dangerous “strategic distrust” is building between the two giants, which will doubtless leave its mark on international politics in the 21st century.

(END/COPYRIGHT IPS)

Excerpt:

A poster in Tunis declares that the revolution must continue. Credit: Simba Russeau/IPS

By Emile Nakhleh
WASHINGTON, Jan 4 2013 (IPS)

As the Arab Spring enters its third year, new Arab democracies and the international community should reflect on several critical lessons from the past two years.

Thinking about these lessons and learning from history, no matter how recent, could help us understand the trajectory for the next stage in Arab politics and regional stability. Some of the key issues raised in the questions below are also highlighted in “Global Trends 2030”, the recent publication of the U.S. National Intelligence Council.

Lesson 1. Domestic turbulence and the struggle for governance resulting from the toppling of dictators could take at least two to three years to abate. Washington and other Western capitals should stay out of these discussions and allow the new indigenous centres of power – Islamists and secularists – to chart a reasonable path without “advice” from the outside.

The internal debates to fill the “governance gap” are expected to be intense but largely peaceful. The euphoria that followed the precipitous fall of Mubarak, Egypt’s reputed third longest reigning dictator since Ramses II, understandably gave way to impatience and frustration about the slow pace of democratic transitions.

The heated disagreements in Egypt over the recently adopted draft constitution, as an example, should be afforded the opportunity to be reconciled through the ballot box, not by bullets. While staying out of domestic wrangling, the United States will remain a key player in the region for years to come – economically, militarily, and politically.

Lesson 2. Understanding complex, diverse Middle Eastern Muslim societies requires policy and intelligence analysts outside the region to acquire deep expertise in the cultural, historical, political, and religious dynamics of Arab societies.

Relying solely on quantifiable data and Western analytic paradigms often produces inadequate analysis. The inability to anticipate the Arab Spring two years ago is a case in point.

Because many policy analysts in the West could not quantify such demands as dignity, justice, and respect, which millions of Arab youth initially voiced in their protests against their dictators in Egypt, Tunisia, Yemen, and Libya, they unfortunately dismissed them as nothing more than “Arab street” hyperbole.

These same demands are still at the heart of mass demonstrations in Bahrain and elsewhere.

Lesson 3. The emergence of Islamic politics in Egypt, Tunisia, Libya, Yemen, and elsewhere, is fueling a serious conversation about whether Islamic political parties are moderating and whether political pragmatism will in the end trump religious ideology. Arab liberals and secularists and civil rights advocates are rightly concerned about the future trajectory of political Islam and governance in Egypt and elsewhere.

The new Egyptian constitutional document seems to embody the two arguments on both sides of the religious secularist divide. It establishes the primacy of Islamic law or Shari’a in governance, but it also recognizes basic individual freedoms of speech and assembly.

The fundamental question is whether Islamic law should be the source or a source of legislation in the new Egypt and whether practicing freedoms of speech and assembly will be subject to strict interpretations of Islamic law. Human rights advocates support extricating these freedoms from state control.

The Muslim Brotherhood, however, has lost much of its legitimacy as a governing party because it has not granted ethnic and religious minorities equal access to economic and political opportunity. The MB also must recognise that Shari’a cannot be the predominant ideology in Egypt.

Over a century ago, Egyptian luminary thinkers Jamal al-Din al-Afghani, Muhammad Abdu, and Rashid Rida infused Egypt with a rich tradition of arguably liberal, reformist thought. The Muslim Brotherhood and its President Muhammad Morsi cannot hope to be accepted as the legitimate government of Egypt if they stifle this deeply ingrained reformist tradition.

Lesson 4. If Washington remains oblivious to human rights abuses in Arab countries, including those that are close allies of the United States, autocratic repression will continue unchecked. Consequently, we should expect that popular anger at the U.S. perceived hypocrisy and double standard would be directed at American interests and personnel in the region.

Violence rages in Syria, and while the world focuses on the Assad’s waning days, human rights abuses continue in other countries. Yet, the Arab Spring has resulted in democratically elected governments in four Arab countries.

The Arab Spring is a work in progress and requires the international community to remain vigilant regarding unlawful regime practices against peaceful protesters.

Many in the West are rightly concerned about the future of a post-Assad regime in Syria and the increasing carnage in that country, but the world should not lose sight of the plight of Shia communities in Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, and other Persian Gulf states.

Human rights advocates across the region are already accusing the United States of hypocrisy and a double standard because of Washington’s perceived mute response to what is happening in Bahrain.

Lesson 5. As job creation and entrepreneurship will be critical for the success of democratic transition, Arab governments will have to adopt creative economic policies to promote economic growth. Failure to do so will hinder their ability to build modern economies.

Highly focused stimulus packages and new investment, tax, and commercial laws must be passed with the aim of restricting the role of government in the economy and expanding the right of individual entrepreneurs and small business people, men and women, to pursue economic enterprises freely.

As I wrote elsewhere, the private sector is the engine that drives economic vibrancy and job creation. If the new governments can harness the power of the people by minimising regulations and enacting market place friendly laws, economic vibrancy would become possible. An employed population is the backbone of a democratic society.

As Arab upheavals continue, these five lessons yield two take-aways: first, the authoritarian paradigm is slowly being replaced by a new political architecture driven vaguely by people power.

Second, while the U.S. and other global powers remain involved in the Arab world, and while they are needed to help get rid of dictators, the people of the region will determine the future of their countries and the type of governance they feel comfortable with.

*Emile Nakhleh is the former director of the Political Islam Strategic Analysis Program and author of “A Necessary Engagement: Reinventing America’s Relations with the Muslim World”.

A Third World War is not impossible, but fortunately is rather unlikely. Let us explore why, and what can be done to prevent it.

Johan Galtung

The worst-case scenario is a world war between the West — NATO, U.S., EU with Japan-Taiwan-South Korea — and the East—the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) with Russia, China, Central Asia as members and India, Pakistan, Iran as observers. With four nuclear powers on each side, and West versus Islam as a major issue. In the centre is the explosive mix of a divided territory (Israel-Palestine) and Jerusalem, a capital divided by a wall.

We have been there before: the Cold War, with West versus Communism as a major issue. In the centre was the explosive mix of a divided Germany, and Berlin, a capital divided by a wall; and a divided Korea, by a demilitarised zone. And yet no direct, hot war, except by proxies; Korea, Vietnam. Why?

No doubt nuclear deterrence was one factor. They went to the brink but turned around–like in the 1962 Cuba-Turkey missile crisis. And no doubt nuclear deterrence also plays a role today, limiting the attacks on Israel, U.S. support for Israeli attacks on Arab-Muslim states ­ Syria-Iran in particular ­and any attack on Russia-China. But nuclear deterrence is not the material out of which positive peace is made: no depolarisation, and certainly no solution and conciliation.

The Cold War NATO-Warsaw Pact system was polarised, with secret police controlling contacts, speech and thoughts, looking for traitors. But the world was not polarised: there was the huge non-aligned movement. Europe was not polarised: there were the 10 neutral, or non-aligned, countries. And ultimately a strong movement against war emerged.

The NATO+-SCO+ system is less polarised, but the world and Europe more. So far, no non-aligned movement, and no strong peace movement.

The United Nations vote showed a 3/4 world united in YES for Palestine, NO to USA-Israel. Both are turning any moral high ground into moral deficit through continued expansion-occupation-siege and invasion-occupation-extrajudicial killings. The world is not against U.S.-Israel defending true homeland borders or 1967 borders but against the force and excesses they seem incapable of reversing. Reverse those policies and they could regain the moral high ground.

But still no actors carrying concrete peace policies like the Helsinki Accords. The reason lies in the difference between the West-Islam and the West-communism conflicts. Islam, Organisation of Islamic Cooperation, covers more of the world territory and population than the West, but has few friends outside; unlike the West, emulated and admired by Russia-China-India, by Latin America and Africa. In all but Israel, Islam has a huge and growing diaspora by immigration-birth-conversion. Not a superpower, not an alliance, only “Islamic cooperation”; but present everywhere.

The result is uncertainty and fear: what do they want? A challenge to other worldviews, guaranteed by the freedoms of speech and religion. Islam offers healing togetherness and sharing to a West suffering from materialist individualism and egoism.

But Islam also threatens Western institutions with unwanted change. Western secular states won the struggle against the church with a secularism also exported to the Muslim colonies as loyalty to the state and the empires behind them. Today parts of the Islamic diaspora hit back, demanding loyalty to Alla’h and the ummah (community) beyond loyalty to Western states.

For immigration to be a peace-building effort, immigrants must respect laws and customs of the host country and be met with curiosity and respect in dialogues, for mutual learning benefiting all. If broken by either or both, stop immigration, and build ummah at home.

How about the other danger spots and zones in the world?

Afghanistan is coming to a close, not only with NATO withdrawal–except to guard what it was all about: a base for a possible war with China and an oil pipeline. There may be wars between India and Pakistan, but no other country feels strongly enough about Kashmir to participate. The world is concerned with Israel not because of anti-Semitism, but because of an alliance that may involve so much of the rest of the world.

North Korea has both nuclear arms and missiles, and will neither attack nor be attacked. The fight for peace treaty and normalisation with the U.S. will probably bear fruits, in the interest of all.

Taiwan and China will slowly converge toward a Hong Kong style solution of one country-two systems, Taiwan as part of China yet highly autonomous. Wisdom would urge the same for a limited Tibet. In neither case do we have conflicts out of which a third world war is made. For that to happen the ties have to be tight, like U.S. to other NATO countries and to Israel. Or, presumably, Russia and China to each other.

We are left with West-Islam. The lack of cohesion on the Islamic side helps. But we are missing a non-aligned Hindu India, lined up with the West in any major confrontation. Indonesia and Egypt are on the Islamic side, neutral Yugoslavia no longer exists, Latin America is Christian-West, and Africa is divided.

We need moderates on both sides. Tunisia-Turkey and the non-aligned powers, Egypt and Indonesia. And the West—maybe Germany, experienced in inter-faith dialogue? Germany should play a major peace role!

(END/COPYRIGHT IPS)

* Johan Galtung, rector of the TRANSCEND Peace University, is author of “The Fall of the US Empire–And Then What?” (www.transcend.org/tup)

A group of activists biked over 1,000 kilometres to spread the word of the WSF in towns and cities across Tunisia. Credit: Aurélie Lecarpentier/IPS

By Justin Hyatt
TUNIS, Dec 11 2012 (IPS)

Following in the wake of the wave of revolutions dubbed the ‘Arab Spring’, which originated here nearly two years ago, North Africa is gearing up to host the World Social Forum (WSF) for the first time.

While Egypt was initially considered for the role, organisers finally settled on Tunisia. Now, this country of 10.7 million people will welcome visitors from all over the world in March of 2013, in a gathering organisers estimate will number upwards of ten thousand participants.

Tunisian civil society is mobilising on numerous fronts. Several large organisations have banded together to design the framework of the event, sending delegates to the steering committee, which serves to guide the preparations.

Forming the backbone of the steering committee is the Tunisian Platform for Economic and Social Rights, whose president, Abderrahmane Hedhili, along with the group’s project coordinator Alaa Talbi, play key roles in laying the foundation for the massive gathering.

“The World Social Forum will be a great opportunity for civil society in Tunisia,” Hedhili told IPS. “Especially from the point of view of bringing reconciliation to those groups with diverging points of view, finding new solutions for local problems  and helping to establish the democratisation process at every level, we see very strong potential.”

A number of working groups have also been established, overseeing issues such as women’s rights, youth and culture. Hedhili stressed that beyond the ‘showcase theme’ of the Arab Spring, a range of topics are on the agenda, from the global economic crisis to social, cultural, environmental and religious issues.

Amélie Cannone, co-chair of the Paris-based organisation AITEC and a veteran of the WSF, has been following the developments and is moving to Tunis for several months to provide extra organisational support.

She recalled that “during the last WSF that took place in Dakar, Senegal, in February 2011, the fall of Mubarak was announced, and this triggered incredible joy and hope all over the floor”.

It quickly became apparent to all those present – as well as scores of activist around the world who had been closely following the Arab Spring – that the courage and determination of Tunisian and Egyptian activists should be honoured by selecting a North African country as the setting for the next WSF.

As Talbi put it, “the Arab world is the new centre of social movements”. Thus the WSF can help strengthen Arab social networks and serve as a foundation for cooperation with international movements as well.

“From the Indignados in Spain to the student protesters in Quebec and Chile and the Occupy movement in the U.S. or UK – they all drew inspiration from the Arab Spring,” added Cannone.

So far, most of the energy for the upcoming meet has been coming from the capital, Tunis. But Marwen Tlili, a young citizen and social activist based here, felt that other regions of the country should not miss out on the excitement.

He gathered  a small group of fellow activists and organised a bike caravan during the month of October, in an attempt to widely broadcast news of the WSF and reach out to local groups in towns such as Kasserine and the city of Gafsa, encouraging them to make their own contributions to the WSF.

By the end, the bike caravan had travelled over one thousand kilometres and disseminated information about the WSF in dozens of locations around the country.

“I think our caravan had a profound impact on those people we encountered,” said Tlili. “In Tunisia, to see a group of cyclists pass through your town is not as common of a sight as it may be in Europe or Canada. It impressed people and brought positive publicity for the upcoming Forum.”

Organisers also hinted at plans for more bike caravans ahead of the WSF, including possibly one caravan departing from Morocco and another originating in Italy. Both would chart a course bearing towards the Tunisian capital.

Cannone also stressed the importance of transnational cooperation, as well as the urgent need to mobilise youth and women, work that the Maghreb Social Forum  has been doing on the regional level for several years already.

The ecological dimension will not be left out either, according to Cannone.

“The current economic model based on intense extraction of natural resources has been especially prevalent in the MENA (Middle East-North Africa) region,” Cannone stressed.

“Thus the WSF, which has incorporated a lot of people from the alter-globalist movement, will be sure to take the environmental problems seriously, and will promote a paradigm shift to local economies, including new models of production, social protection and decent living conditions for all.”

Tlili shares her enthusiasm about the potential inherent in such a massive event: “The World Social Forum should be an opportunity for people to change their lives. We want to encourage especially the youth, with the revolution fresh in their minds, to get active and to do positive things in their own communities.”

(END)

An Ennahda poster in Tunis. Credit: Jake Lippincott/IPS.

By Justin Hyatt
TUNIS, Nov 26 2012 (IPS)

A year has passed since the provisional government assumed power in Tunisia. Following in the wake of the revolutionary changes brought on by the Arab Spring, the moderate Islamic Ennahda party won the majority and formed a coalition with the two secular parties Congress for the Republic (CPR) and Ettakatol in October last year.

With the promise to hold new elections a year later, the country waited as Oct. 23 approached.

The day came and went, without the ruling government stepping down. Small protests erupted in the streets of the capital and later elsewhere but there were no large-scale rallies.

“I experienced the greatest deception of my life, “a young psychologist and actress from Tunis who gave her name only as Meriem told IPS. Even if the ruling government did not immediately step down, she said, people were hoping for some sign that change was in the works.

“I don’t care who is in power, but I want to see action, see something happening,” she said. “But after such a let-down, I was crying like a fool.”

The ruling coalition has claimed that more time is needed to prepare elections, and has instead pegged Jun. 23, 2013 as the next election date.

Usama Zekri, a blogger, stressed that more time is indeed needed to fully prepare for the elections that will usher in the first four-year political cycle.

“While the National Assembly is perhaps slow,” Zekri told IPS, “Tunisians are not used to open debates and talking with each other, thus we need time to learn and also to make mistakes.”

Nidaa Tounes (‘Call of Tunisia’) has generated some of the strongest opposition support recently. The party is led by octogenarian former prime minister Beji Caid Essebsi, and holds to a strict secular line.

Nesrine Dridi, a dentist, claims that the best solution for Tunisia would be a secular power structure as envisioned by Nidaa Tounes, leaving religion as a matter of choice.

“We used to be a tolerant society, but now religion is forming dividing lines,” says Dridi. “What we need is for people of all stripes to work hand in hand to promote our country and establish a free society.”

Many in the opposition are worried that while Ennahda espouses moderate Islam, it is actually keen on promoting religion throughout all areas of government and public life.

The Salafist movement represents the hardline ultraconservative branch of Islam, but Ennahda can position itself as a moderate strain, needed by all to preserve a balance in the style of governance.

In forming the new constitution, Ennahda seemed open to Salafist demands for greater inclusion of Sharia law. But this was quelled by opposition groups and secular parties.

This was seen as a warning sign for those who are worried that liberal democratic values might draw the shorter straw. Yet, according to Zekri, the opposition has been too preoccupied attacking Ennahda on the religious front, and could do more to propose an alternative economic programme.

In order to fully reassure the country that the democratic evolution is on the right track, the ruling coalition will have to prove that proper steps are being taken.

The establishment of the independent Committee on Elections is seen as such a sign, but many have still to be convinced of its impartiality and readiness to get to work.

Beyond this, serious progress will need to become evident elsewhere. Among the greatest tasks facing the government are high unemployment and the rising cost of living.

In October the Swiss government and the International Finance Corporation granted Tunisia a million dollars to implement business procedural reform. An Austrian trade delegation has visited Tunisia to explore possibilities for Tunisian-Austrian relations.

These are just a few of many overtures currently, but it is not clear how all this will translate into jobs and putting more people to work.

Tunisians remain in a state of uncertainty, eager for signs that the country is headed in the right direction, and that the blood and sweat of the Jasmine revolution will help cement Tunisia’s place as the best-transitioned democracy in North Africa.

For now, the streets remain relatively calm, without large-scale protests taking place, yet President Moncef Marzouki recently admitted to having nightmares of a second revolution.

Activists like Meriem are poised to jump into action, if the need arises.

“I don’t want to be an activist, I’d like to get on with my life,” stresses the actress, “but if I feel like my voice needs to be heard again, I won’t wait for a minute to get out on the street.”

A failure to focus on small-scale economics could be the most significant obstacle to stability in North Africa in the aftermath of the Arab Spring, economists, diplomats and development workers warned here on Friday.

A year and a half since popular revolts led to a historic wave of pro-democracy optimism, the political transitions in Arab Spring countries remain beset by sectarian factionalism and rusty or nascent governance institutions. Yet such issues are being further hindered by the stuttering global economy, particularly in Europe, and a lack of focus by policymakers on the informal sector.

“Remember, almost all the self-immolators during the Arab Spring uprisings were informal-sector actors,” William Lawrence, North Africa director with the International Crisis Group (ICG), a watchdog, said in Washington on Friday.

“Until these governments stop seeing the informal sector as the enemy, and until they decide to turn to this sector for taxes and sustainable jobs, you’re going to have a terrible economic situation in all of these countries. Instead, we’re seeing the exact opposite, a clampdown on the informal sector.”

One key example in this regard is Algeria, the largest country in North Africa. Here, the informal sector has doubled in size over the past decade; according to official figures released in July, it now stands at nearly four million.

“Now, the new government is trying to do away with the informal sector entirely, saying that it is going to be eradicated by next July!” Yahia Zoubir, a professor with the Marseille School of Management, said at a daylong conference on the Maghreb, or northwestern Africa, here on Friday. “If there’s no substitute for that, and if the economy in general continues like this, we’re in for trouble.”

Zoubir says that such warnings would apply to Algeria’s neighbours as well, including Libya and Tunisia.

“The free market cannot create rural jobs; the solution is not going to be in agriculture,” Lawrence says. “Today, a major source of employment is not the private sector, which needs to perform better; it also isn’t public sector, which needs to perform better.”

Instead, he says, it’s the informal sector and the small and medium enterprises that are providing the critical bulk of work in these countries.

Old elite dominance

Such policy advice flies in the face of both the traditional cronyism that has dominated North African countries for decades, as well as the directives focused upon by international finance corporations. Currently, for instance, the World Bank is emphasising the importance of large companies in creating jobs and spurring economic growth, as such companies typically dominate exports.

But Mustapha Nabli, the former governor of the Tunisian Central Bank, suggests caution in this regard.

“Exports are only part of the story,” he said, speaking at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a Washington think tank, on Friday. “You have the domestic market as well, and there is a tremendous amount of dynamism for exports coming from small and medium enterprises.”

Moving away from the elite dominance of the private sector was also an important facet of the Arab Spring unrest that began in Tunisia, Nabli says, but this is a point that has gotten overlooked as the political transitions have progressed.

“The old regime in Tunisia was trying to control all of the private sector, and this was one of the reasons for revolution in Tunisia,” he says. “When the youth revolted, it was clearly about jobs but also about corruption, about the corruption that was endemic in the private – not the public – sector.”

Yet even as the countries of North Africa and beyond work to consolidate and bring order to their own domestic situations, however, developing countries across the globe are increasingly being buffeted by the austerity measures being imposed in Europe and the general downturn in the world economy.

Today, Nabli says, the “engine of growth” across North Africa “has the blues – it is not ready to take risks. The big international firms are waiting – not ready to move.” While the economies of the region largely weathered the downturn for many months, Nabli says that starting early this year the situation changed, with massive job losses having since transpired.

“Europe is really destroying jobs, so you need to help fix Europe,” he says. “The U.S. should be doing something but we’re not seeing the U.S. do much. But realise that by fixing Europe you’re helping us – this will help the democratic transition, and by bringing stability you can create jobs. You have to get your priorities right.”

Indeed, while the U.S. government had begun focusing on policies aimed at economic stability and jobs creation, the focus in recent years has shifted increasingly to counterterrorism. This is a trend that appears only to be strengthening with the deterioration of the chaotic situation in northern Mali, coupled with the recent attack on U.S. diplomatic installations in Libya that killed a U.S. ambassador.

On Friday, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton publicly addressed the Libya attacks head on for the first time.

“Recent events have raised questions about what lies ahead for the region … scenes of anger and violence have led Americans to ask what is happening to the promise of the Arab Spring,” Clinton said at CSIS.

She noted that the United States is currently “stepping up counterterrorism efforts”, particularly aimed at Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb, a group Clinton has recently linked between strongholds in northern Mali and the Libya attacks.

Also on Friday, the United Nations Security Council approved a resolution that could pave the way for a foreign military intervention in Mali, requesting a detailed military plan from U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon within 45 days. Although Washington has been tentative on supporting a full military intervention, in recent days U.S. officials have stated that the recent military success in Somalia could provide a model for dealing with the Mali situation.

Yet ICG’s Lawrence worries that Washington “tends to overemphasis counterterrorism”. He notes that U.S. policies are already highly unpopular in northern Africa, and calls for a more holistic response – “economics first, security second, justice third”.

Putting two of the region’s largest unemployed groups – women and youths – to work on their countries’ problems would certainly be one place to start. North Africa has the lowest rate of labour participation among women anywhere in the world – and the highest rate of unemployment among those women who are in the labour force.

The hard-won freedoms of the Arab Spring need support from the international community to survive. Credit: Karlos Zurutuza/IPS

By Daan Bauwens
BRUSSELS, Oct 4 2012 (IPS)

The Arab Spring is far from over. The protracted conflict in Syria continues to swallow lives while the international community, hamstrung by geopolitics, looks on; riots across the Muslim world following the release of a low-budget American movie that is disrespctful of the Prophet Muhammad resulted in the death of U.S. Ambassador Chris Stevens in Libya; Tunisia and Egypt continue to struggle with post-revolutionary economies; and a string of democratically elected Islamist governments has taken root in newly-liberated countries throughout the region.

Activists and analysts are on the edge, fearing that the freedoms fought for and won during the Arab Spring are now diminishing again. The only hope, they say, is the continued support of the international community for the long road ahead.

“Even though we are experiencing setbacks, we do need your continuous support for this momentum,” Tunisian activist Nabila Hamza, president of the international non-profit, Foundation for the Future (FFF), said at the European Union headquarters last Thursday, in a plea to European governments for long-term engagement in the Arab transition to democracy.

According to a recent report by the U.S.-based Freedom House, only Tunisia has shown an improvement in its overall governance score. Bahrain slipped backward while Egypt only showed a minor improvement. The score was based on five criteria: accountability and public voice, civil liberties, rule of law, anti-corruption and transparency.

At the United Nations General Debate last week, European Council President Herman Van Rompuy and UK Prime Minister David Cameron urged the U.N. not to be put off by setbacks, and called for increased support for people seeking to build democracy. “Achieving lasting change takes time,” Van Rompuy said to the General Assembly.

Last Thursday, during a panel discussion entitled ‘Arab Spring, revolutions and the domino effect’, organised at the Brussels office of the representation of the German state of North Rhine-Westphalia to the European Union, several experts shed light on the most recent developments in the region and debated the EU’s specific role in democracy promotion in the Arab region.

Professor Todd Landman, director of the Institute for Democracy and Conflict Resolution at the University of Essex, pleaded for continuous foreign support for democracy, even if the donors themselves are not satisfied with the results of the elections.

Alexander Graf Lambsdorff, European Parliament Member and head of the EU Election Monitoring Mission in Libya, lamneted the many bureaucratic hurdles involved in the EU’s aid allocation process.

Hamza echoed these sentiments, adding, “The EU expects us to hire experts to decipher official aid documents while we’re fighting a revolution.”

Hamza, who, through the FFF, oversees the disbursement of more than 10 million dollars of support to over 166 civil society-led projects spread across 15 countries in the Arab region, is optimistic about the changes sweeping the Arab world.

“The Arab Spring has created space for civil society to grow at an enormous pace,” she told IPS. “Egypt, Libya and Yemen (are witnessing) a multiplication of new organisations, where men and women equally engage in civic matters.

“We have been fighting for human rights, anti-corruption and media freedom since the early fifties, but now we can do it without being prosecuted. New laws about free association have been installed in Tunisia (and) are being drafted in Libya and Egypt. The legal environment is changing.”

According to Hamza, the Arab spring also brought about a new phenomenon: “We see young activists from the diaspora coming back to Tunisia. People who had been exiled and banished are now coming back to help rebuild and reform the country. This cultural meeting between local people and Tunisians from the diaspora is creating a wonderful dynamic, especially in terms of civic engagement.”

In Hamza’s view, the election of Islamist governments should not be regarded as a setback for the revolution. “The Islamists are perceived by the population as martyrs of the oppression, this is what gave them legitimacy as a counter-power. That is why they got elected so easily.

“But in Tunisia and Egypt, the two countries where an Islamic movement tried to include Sharia law in the new consitution, they failed. After weeks of discussion, and under huge pressure from civil society, the Islamist party in Tunisia drafted a constitution in which men and women are equal.”

“We are witnessing a change within political Islam,” Hamza added. “Now that Islamists are running the countries they have to become more pragmatic. There is pressure from within the country: they have to solve issues like unemployment and the distribution of wealth. Then there is external pressure: now they are part of a world (in which) they need the support of Western countries to survive and tell their own people that faith isn’t the answer to their every need.”

Hamza urged the European Union to increase its support for democratisation in the Arab region. “Many pledges have been made and many programmes have been created to support us,” she said, referring to the European Support for Partnership, Reform and Inclusive Growth (SPRING) programme, under which the European Commission promised to provide support for democratic transformation, institution building and economic growth in the wake of the Arab Spring.

“But we still have the feeling more can be done, especially (for) civil society organisations, the only watchdogs of democracy, the only ones who can hold the government accountable. We need the support because we have to remain vigilant: the danger of new dictatorships still exists. We are still in a transition period.

“And after all, it is also in Europe’s own interest that the Arab Spring succeeds,” she added.

Most importantly, she said, the EU must redefine its aid paradigm. “Transition is a process,” she said. “The international community should support the process, not the short-term project. We need strategic patience in order to look at the real achievement of the revolution. Donors want immediate results, but a revolution has ups and downs.”

(END)

By Walter García and Lawrence Del Gigante
UNITED NATIONS, Sep 13 2012 (IPS)

Following the revolution that culminated in the ouster of longtime President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali in January 2011, Tunisia embarked on a transitional justice process with the intention of addressing the gross human rights violations of the dictatorship.

Said Mechichi. Credit: UNDP

The new administration established commissions with the purpose of addressing the abuses committed during the popular protests, and to aid them in this endeavour, a Ministry of Transitional Justice and Human Rights was created.

The country is also transitioning from a justice system that was fraught with corruption, impunity and lack of autonomy, to a model of judicial integrity. In a post-revolutionary society, this process is not a straightforward one.

Said Mechichi serves as state secretary of reform in the Ministry of the Interior of Tunisia. A lawyer by profession, he is a member of the Tunisian Association for the Defence of Human Rights and of the National Council of Civil Liberties and is also a founding member and director of the Centre for the Independence of the Judiciary and the Legal Profession, a founding member of the Tunisian Association Against Torture and serves on the lawyers’ committee of the Tunisian branch of Amnesty International.

Speaking with IPS correspondent Lawrence Del Gigante, Mechichi discussed the important steps needed to ensure a Culture of Peace in Tunisia, as well as the challenges that the country currently faces.

Q: What role does trust play in re-establishing the rule of law?

A: The question is more than good. Why was the revolution launched? It’s a protest against the institutions of the regime, and the revolution is launched assuming that there was no longer any credibility for the prevailing institutions.

Naturally the revolution shows that there is no link, that there is a severed link between the institutions and the citizenry. The most important action to be taken post-revolution is to restore confidence in the institution of the state; the judiciary, the media, the institutions that are in charge of social and economic affairs, the institutions that represent the sovereignty of the state, the officials who are in charge of administration and public affairs domestically, regionally and nationally, beginning with the lowest employee all the way up to the prime minister and the president.

Trust must be built so that we can respond to the basic needs, in the initial phase. In the subsequent phase there must be thinking of reform relating to the laws and employment, jobs and the positions that govern the work of these institutions. A new culture must be propagated widely in all fields, to do away with the culture inherited from the previous regime.

Q: What is happening at a grassroots level in Tunisia, from a humanitarian point of view?

A: The people who launched the revolution have certain benefits because they have demanded improving their socioeconomic conditions. Since the inception of the revolution until now, there have been no protests or demonstrations that call for employment and improvement of the situation.

Naturally, we seek to meet all demands and support the budget that is set aside for development in particular, and to accelerate the study and implementation of development projects in cooperation with fraternal and friendly countries and specialised agencies.

Unfortunately, there are many, many demands. Many of them are extremely urgent and they have to do with providing the basic necessities such as water, power, roads and basic equipment for the work of the authorities. We are seeking to provide for these needs because there has been a delay in the support.

We are awaiting an improvement in the situation and the provision of resources and the provision of support by donors and by the organisations.

Q: What are the barriers to fostering a Culture of Peace in a post-revolutionary country?

A: The biggest is the disruption of dialogue between the basic parties and the major players. One of the most important impediments is the failure to achieve, as far as development is concerned, because people will run out of hope, having entertained great hopes, and they may have reactions which are uncalculated and unexpected.

Excerpt: