POLITICS: A New Era in Serbia

By Vesna Peric Zimonjic Reprint | | Print |

Vesna Peric Zimonjic

BELGRADE, Oct 3 2001 (IPS) - The fall of former dictator Slobodan Milosevic from power last year appears to have ushered in a new era in Serbia.

“For the first time since the end of WW II, when Communists took over, Serbs realised that those in power can be removed by the will of people,” says Vladimir Goati, a political analyst in Belgrade.

Milosevic stepped down from power after mass protests in Belgrade. The unrest followed the dictator’s refusal to concede defeat in the September 2000 elections, which he lost to Vojislav Kostunica of the Democratic Opposition of Serbia (DOS).

Milosevic’s rule was marked with the wars in the former Yugoslavia, and two rounds of international sanctions that ruined Serbia’s once prosperous economy.

In 1999, following the war against ethnic Albanians in Kosovo, Serbia went through 11 weeks of air raids by the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO). The bombing destroyed Serbia’s industry and infrastructure. The new administration handed Milosevic over to the International Criminal Tribunal for former Yugoslavia (ICTY) in June. He has been charged with war crimes in Kosovo.

Ordinary Serbs say they now have more freedom than when they were under Milosevic.

“It’s a good feeling to know that no war is looming over your head,” says 34-year-old Mirjana Zivkovic, a high school teacher. “It’s also good to know that Serbia is not a pariah state any more.”

Serbia has been re-admitted to all international institutions it was expelled from during Milosevic’s era. It is now a member of the United Nations, the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe, the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the World Bank and Interpol. Negotiations have begun with the European Union and the Council of Europe.

Ordinary Serbs, struggling to make ends meet, say Kostunica’s administration has done well at the international level, but not at the domestic level.

“Life is hard; prices are soaring while salaries are low,” says 55-year-old Predrag Jovanovic, a technician in a chemical industry.

“Since the fall of Milosevic, a feeling of general relief has been prevailing here,” says Srdjan Bogosavljevic, a political analyst. “It was like coming out from the cellar into the light of the day…But things cannot improve overnight.”

A recent survey by “Group 17”, a think-tank, show that more than 40 percent of Serbs live worse than they were a year ago. Some 50 percent of 1,400 surveyed say their living standards have remained the same, while 10 percent say their economic situation has improved.

The average monthly salary in Serbia rose from 45 dollars a year ago to 100 dollars in September this year. Experts attribute the rise to the massive foreign aid pumped into the country after the fall of Milosevic.

“Around a billion dollar in foreign aid has been pumped into Serbia since last year, but real investment is slow,” economic analyst Ljubinka Milincic says. “Our laws, which need to be changed from Milosevic’s era, give no firm guarantee to foreign companies that their capital won’t be taken away or abused.”

Under the IMF guidance, financial institutions follow standards unknown during Milosevic’s era, like limited budgetary spending and adjustment of prices.

During Milosevic’s time, budgetary spending was solved with printing of bank notes, a practice often followed by soaring inflation. Food prices and electricity rates were artificially kept low, as the regime feared social unrest.

Since the fall of Milosevic, the price of bread has gone up by 352 percent and milk by 248 percent. Electricity rates have doubled and phone bills are three times higher than they were in October 2000.

To cushion the effects of economic collapse, Serbs have devised survival mechanisms, like supplementing their income through remittance from relatives working abroad, or moonlighting, or through black marketing.

“Serbia witnessed no transition from centralised Communist economy to free market economy in the early 90s, like the rest of Eastern Europe,” Finance Minister Bozidar Djelic said at a recent press conference in Belgrade.

“It’s hard to expect ordinary people to know that the country lost 65 percent of its gross national product in the 1990s,” he said. “The most important thing is the patience of people. If they were patient for a decade under Milosevic, we expect them to be patient now for a while.”

“That will be hard,” says 41-year-old Radmila Kebara, a waitress. “I’m worse off now than under Milosevic.”

“DOS has done nothing to improve our lives,” she says. “Maybe we need another October 5 teach them a lesson,” referring to another popular unrest.