Global Geopolitics

Regime Change – Sometimes It Works, Often It Doesn’t


 
Donald Trump ran on a platform of ending wars. After his success in Venezuela, he is intoxicated by his military achievements and is banking on regime change in several countries.

Central Bank Hedging Triggered Gold Fever

In mid-1971, US President Nixon ended the dollar’s gold peg at $35 per ounce, triggering de-dollarisation. The 2025 gold and silver rush followed private speculators trying to profit from central banks hedging against perceived new risks.

Europe and Multilateralism

“Europe can no longer be a custodian for the old-world order, for a world that has gone and will not return (…) we need a more realistic and interest-driven foreign policy.” These were some of the words pronounced one week ago by the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, at the EU Ambassadors’ Conference in Brussels. A speech that sparked considerable controversy: an almost immediate rebuttal from the President of the Council, Antonio Costa; rumours of a motion of censure against Von der Leyen in the European Parliament; more or less public reproaches from several European leaders; and a swift and complete retraction by the President herself.

Rubio Seduces Europe with Imperial Nostalgia

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s Munich speech last month seemed to seduce the European elite behind President Trump, against the ‘Rest’, especially the resource-rich Global South.

UN Security Council: Reform or Irrelevance

In early January, an emergency UN Security Council meeting on Venezuela followed a familiar path of paralysis. Members clashed over the US government’s abduction of Nicolás Maduro, with many warning it set a dangerous precedent, but no resolution came.

The UN’s Withering Vine: A US Retreat from Global Governance


 
The Trump administration’s recent announcement of its withdrawal from 66 international organisations has been met with a mixture of alarm and applause. While the headline number suggests a dramatic retreat from the world stage, a closer look reveals a more nuanced, and perhaps more insidious, strategy. The move is less a wholesale abandonment of the United Nations system and more a targeted pruning of the multilateral vine, aimed at withering specific branches of global cooperation that the administration deems contrary to its interests. While the immediate financial impact may be less than feared, the long-term consequences for the UN and the rules-based international order are profound.

Trump Reboots US National Security Strategy, Foreign Policy

The new US National Security Strategy (NSS) repositions the superpower’s role in the world. Hence, foreign policy will be mainly driven by considerations of ‘making America great again’ (MAGA).

Hollow Promises or Hope?
COP30 Brazil – Moment of Truth for the Planet

COP30 Brazil, though shadowed by the absence of many world leaders, remains a pivotal milestone in the global fight against climate change, tasked with building on the Paris Agreement’s momentum. Yet the glaring lack of commitment, coupled with withdrawals from the accord, casts a grim shadow over the future. The planet continues to warm, and scientists warn that current targets may not prevent a catastrophic temperature spike. While the summit’s focus on implementation not just new promises—is a welcome shift, it’s clear: words alone won’t cool the Earth.

Western Sahara: Half a Century of Occupation and One Last Betrayal

Ehmudi Lebsir was 17 when he trudged more than 50 kilometres across the desert to stay alive. Half a century on, the Sahrawi refugee still has not gone home to what was then Spanish province of Western Sahara.

UN80: Three Tests to Make Reform About People, Not Spreadsheets

This September the UN turns 80, but the lessons of peace, justice, and cooperation are still unfinished. The world today faces the flames of inequality, conflict, ecological collapse and growing digital threats. In short, the very problems the UN was created to solve are once again staring us in the face.

AI Governance: Human Rights in the Balance As Tech Giants and Authoritarians Converge

Algorithms decide who lives and dies in Gaza. AI-powered surveillance tracks journalists in Serbia. Autonomous weapons are paraded through Beijing’s streets in displays of technological might. This isn’t dystopian fiction – it’s today’s reality. As AI reshapes the world, the question of who controls this technology and how it’s governed has become an urgent priority.

Do We Need a Pacific Peace Index?


 
Globally, there is a 0.36% deterioration in average levels of peacefulness, as more countries are increasing their levels of militarisation against the backdrop of rising geopolitical tensions, increasing conflict, and rising economic uncertainty.

A New Non-Alignment for the Global South

The Global South had little voice, let alone influence, in shaping the economically ‘neoliberal’ and politically ‘neoconservative’ globalisation leading to contemporary geopolitical economic conflicts. Pacifist non-aligned cooperation for sustainable development offers the best way forward.

‘Enabling Machines to Make Life and Death Decisions Is Morally Unjustifiable’


 
CIVICUS discusses autonomous weapons systems and the campaign for regulation with Nicole van Rooijen, Executive Director of Stop Killer Robots, a global civil society coalition of over 270 organisations that campaigns for a new international treaty on autonomous weapons systems.

Why Peacebuilding Needs a New Global Agenda

It has been 33 years since peacebuilding was formally recognized within the United Nations system, by the then UN Secretary-General Boutros-Ghali, who defined it as a long-term structural work aimed at preventing the recurrence of violence, setting the stage for the UN’s ongoing efforts to address the root cause of conflict and not just its consequences. “Post-conflict peacebuilding is the action to identify and support structures which will tend to strengthen and solidify peace in order to avoid a relapse into conflict,” Boutros-Ghali said.

Trump Accord Sows Discord in US Empire

US President Donald Trump has deliberately sown discord worldwide in attempting to remake the world to serve supposed American interests better. He will not cede influence, let alone power and control, to other nations, let alone people.

Trump Wants World to Subsidise US Empire

Donald Trump’s top economic advisor claims the President has weaponised tariffs to ‘persuade’ other nations to pay the US to maintain its supposedly mutually beneficial global empire.

Trump’s ‘Shock and Awe’ Tariffs

US President Donald Trump has again seized global attention by arbitrarily imposing sweeping tariffs on the rest of the world. He reminds us America is still boss, claiming to ‘make America great again’ (MAGA) by ensuring ‘America first’ at everyone else’s expense.

How to Agree an Armistice in Ukraine: Lessons from Korea


 
The armistice agreement that ended the Korean War in 1953 has been mentioned as a possible model for how to end the fighting in Ukraine. This makes sense. The Trump administration, however, seems to opt for a quick deal like the 1973 Paris agreement on Vietnam or the Minsk agreements of 2014–15, combining “ceasefires in place” with vain prospects of subsequently reaching a genuine peace agreement.

Greenland: A Brief Chronicle of a US Historical Interest

“…I am convinced that Greenland's importance to U.S. interests will grow. Thanks to geography, historical ties (…), the United States has the inside track when competing for influence in Greenland (even as the Chinese have now started making regular visits)…” This quote from a diplomatic cable sent by the U.S. embassy in Copenhagen to Washington might seem recent, perhaps just before President Trump’s abrupt announcement of his intentions to “buy” or “annex” Greenland from Denmark, but that is not the case.

Western Climate Hypocrisy Exposed by NATO Energy Policy

NATO geopolitical strategy has now joined the ‘coalition’ of Western geoeconomic forces accelerating planetary heating, now led again by re-elected US President Donald Trump.

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