/IPS ENVIRONMENT BULLETIN/ DISARMAMENT: U.N. Approves Nuclear Test Ban, But Doubts Remain

By Farhan Haq Reprint | | Print |

UNITED NATIONS, Sep 14 1996 (IPS) - The United Nations achieved a milestone Tuesday with its sweeping approval for a nuclear test ban, but the muted tone in the U.N. General Assembly bore scant evidence of a victory.

“The non-aligned states should be rejoicing today,” Javed Zarif, Iran’s deputy foreign minister, said of the developing world’s four-decade effort to secure a test ban. “But what we see here today, to our most profound regret, is an attitude that can best be described as somber.”

The General Assembly overwhelmingly approved a resolution to adopt a nuclear Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT), completed last month at the Conference on Disarmament in Geneva but blocked by India from consensus approval by that body.

One hundred and fifty-eight of the General Assembly’s 185 members voted in favour of a resolution, moved by Australia, to adopt the CTBT and open the text up for signatures later this month. Only Bhutan and Libya joined India in opposing the resolution, while five countries abstained.

But the victory in the Assembly was overshadowed by vows from India and Pakistan — both believed to have nuclear weapons — not to adhere to the CTBT, and by lingering doubts over what the treaty accomplished.

Although for some members, the treaty’s passage here marks a major victory in the nuclear disarmament campaign, others saw it as a partial victory at best, and an opening for a resumed arms race at worst.

“Nobody likes the resolution,” Arundhati Ghose, India’s top disarmament negotiator, told IPS. “They’ve all been sat upon.”

“There is still a threat of the latent annihilation of all mankind,” argued Ambassador Bruno Rodriguez Parrilla of Cuba, which abstained from the vote.

“There is a serious and real risk that the nuclear arms race would be re-ignited,” Zarif agreed.

The CTBT, many diplomats here noted, will not stop all nuclear testing. The treaty bans all test explosions, whether atmospheric, on land or sea or underground — but allows sub-critical levels of explosive testing and computer-based tests.

For some developing nations still upset about the lack of a commitment to total disarmament at last year’s extension of the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, the advantage such an allowance gives the five declared nuclear powers is a bone of contention.

“The treaty would allow the most technologically sophisticated nuclear weapon states to continue to improve their arsenals,” argued Ambassador M.T. Mapuranga of Zimbabwe, which nonetheless approved the resolution.

“It is understandable that some nuclear weapon states find this unsatisfactory, for it blocks their advancement into the nuclear club,” Mapuranga added. “Yet it does not dissolve the club, but makes it even more exclusive.”

The existing five nuclear powers — Britain, China, France, Russia and the United States — are all to varying degrees capable of upgrading their nuclear arsenals without test explosions. China and France were the last of that group to declare moratoria on underground explosions this year.

Yet India and Pakistan still depend on test explosions to improve their systems, experts believe. Both intend to stay outside the treaty, even though they are among a group of 44 nations which must sign the treaty within three years for the CTBT to enter into force.

In recent days, India has taken the blame for the likelihood the treaty will not enter into force. But India’s reasons for opposition are valid, since the CTBT is not a comprehensive ban on nuclear testing, said Alyn Ware, executive director of the Lawyers’ Committee on Nuclear Policy.

“While India has been vilified for holding out on the treaty, what they are asking for is no more than what the International Court of Justice (ICJ) declared is a legal obligation on all states,” Ware said, noting a July 8 ICJ ruling that all nations must pursue nuclear disarmament “in good faith.”

New Delhi has maintained a steadfast opposition to the current treaty, arguing that it does not go far enough in implementing nuclear disarmament and that the insistence on India’s signature is coercive. Pakistan approved the Assembly resolution, but maintained its own refusal to sign any nuclear pact to which India is not also a party.

As a result, the treaty likely will not take effect soon, even though many nations are expected to sign in the coming months. But U.S. Ambassador James Ledogar, who led his country’s negotiations at Geneva, insisted the victory Tuesday is still a major one.

The Vienna Convention on Treaties binds all nations which sign a treaty not to act against that treaty’s ends, even if it is not in force, Ledogar noted. As a result, even if India and Pakistan hold out, other signatories are committed to a moratorium on test explosions.

That is a major event for the Middle East, he said, since Israel, also suspected of possessing nuclear weapons capability, uclear weapons capability, intends to sign the CTBT. intends to sign the CTBT.

Moreover, Ledogar predicted, “adherence to this treaty will become the norm — that is the thing India feathat is the thing India fears.” Perhaps within the next few years, widespread support for the treaty will compel India and Pakistan to join, he argued.

But Ghose denied any pressure would have an effect on India. “India will never sign this treaty — not now, not later,” she said. As a result, as long as the treaty requires New Delhi’s acceptance, she argued, “this treaty will never enter into force.”