YUGOSLAVIA: Serbian Poll Protest Splits Opposition

By Vesna Peric Zimonjic Reprint | | Print |

Vesna Peric-Zimonjic

BELGRADE, Aug 11 1997 (IPS) - When former Serbian president Slobodan Milosevic became president of Federal Yugoslavia, in a ceremony that amounted to a coronation last month, new elections to fill his old post became an obvious necessity.

Within a day Serbian parliamentary speaker Dragan Tomic announced the date — Sep. 21 — for presidential elections to fill the vacant post left by Milosevic. But he also announced that elections for the Serbian parliament would be held at the same time, four months earlier than scheduled.

Both presidential and parliamentary votes were due in December, and while Milosevic’s precipitous promotion last month meant that, under the constitution, his Serbian successor had to be elected within 60 days, there was technically no reason why the parliamentary vote had to be brought forward as well.

The twin election date suits the ruling Socialist Party (SPS), as it will mean the voting will be over before a widely expected autumn of social discontent begins in Serbia.

Tomic’s official explanation was that “due to the high cost of the elections” (approximately two million dollars), both would be held at the same time. Serbia, with its population of nine million, is the bigger part of what remains of federal Yugoslavia — its link with the tiny republic of Montenegro and its population of 600,000.

Milosevic’s SPS and its coalition party, his wife’s leftist JUL, will naturally take part and has already announced its presidential candidate — Zoran Lilic, a puppet of Milosevic, who was acting federal president for the last four years, until Milosevic took over on Jul. 23.

The surprise is that, breaking a collective opposition decision to boycott the elections, charismatic opposition leader Vuk Draskovic is also to stand for president.

The central committee of Draskovic’s Serbian Renewal Party (SPO) decided by 104 votes to six that it would enter a candidate, Belgrade’s BK Television reported Sunday, with Draskovic quoted as saying that “the electoral conditions have never been better”.

The opposition had threatened to boycott the polls even before the date of the elections was announced, when the Serbian parliament, in a hasty procedure that ignored the opposition, endorsed a new election law.

This divides Serbia into 29 constituencies (instead of nine) and introduces a system that favours the ruling party by increasing the number of MPs voted in the provinces and rural areas at the proportionate expense of the cities, where the opposition is strong.

The main objection to the law was that some geographically small constituencies, with small populations, would return the same number of MPs to parliament as the large areas of Belgrade with several hundred thousand people.

Despite Draskovic’s break, the other ten opposition parties said Saturday that they would still boycott Serbia’s legislative and presidential elections, charging that the new election rules are unfair.

Among them are the Civic Alliance (GSS) and Democratic Party (DS), formerly allied with Draskovic’s SPO under the collective banner name Zajedno (Together).

“There are no conditions for fair elections in Serbia on Sep. 21,” says Goran Svilanovic of the GSS. “It is impossible to free the media for the campaign in such a short time and we also have bitter experience with the control of the electoral process” he adds.

Aleksandra Joksimovic, DS spokesman, says a boycott is imminent because “the regime has done nothing to make the conditions fairer for elections”. The SPS announced, through Serbian vice premier Ratko Markovic, that “all the conditions for fair and free elections have been met”.

Tomic says “an invitation was sent to the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) to send observers to the elections”. Melissa Fleming, spokeswoman for the Vienna-based organisation, told the independent FoNet news agency in Belgrade that the OSCE is willing to send observers, if asked.

Draskovic’s break with the boycott marks the end of the opposition parties’ informal coalition under the Zajedno banner. Last year Zajedno put serious pressure on Milosevic in a series of major street protests, forcing him to reinstate opposition victories that he annulled after local elections last November.

“Boycott of the elections by the opposition parties poses a double risk” says Ranko Petkovic, a leading expert on international law. “The parties who abstain from the elections could be marginalised, and considered too timid by public. On the other hand, those which take part in the elections could consider themselves as the parties who have the mandate from the people.

“The real problem is — how would such the elections be judged by the international community?”

Most observers agree that the opposition parties, which are split, have little chance of beating the SPS. In the months after its definitive victory during the winter street protests, the Zajedno coalition has fallen apart.

Instead of cementing its unity and firming up its vague political agenda, the three-party coalition has collapsed under the weight of mutual accusations and disagreements.

The three leaders — Vuk Draskovic of the SPO, Zoran Djindjic of the DS and Vesna Pesic of the GSS — have not met for months, and are communicating through fax messages or by issuing statements.

“They have lost the credibility with people by quarreling in public, and it is very bad after the positive energy of 88 days of protests,” says Nenad Stefanovic of the independent weekly Vreme.

“The vanities of at least two of the leaders broke up Zajedno,” said Dejan Djordjevic, an independent journalist. “Whether or not they boycott the elections, the fragmented opposition is no danger to Milosevic”.

Late last month, Draskovic accused Djindjic of “flirting” with Milosevic’s SPS, but Djindjic dismissed the accusations. Draskovic was among the first group of several opposition leaders invited to Milosevic’s new presidential residence for talks on the elections. Djindjic and Pesic were not invited.

Apart from Draskovic another alternative candidate could be ultra- nationalist Vojislav Seselj, whose popularity among the ordinary people is on the rise. Most observers attribute this to the disarray within Zajedno and disillusion with Milosevic.

“After Milosevic gave up his nationalist goals (in Croatia and Bosnia-Hercegovina) many nationalists felt betrayed” Djordjevic says. “When Zajedno split, people saw the need for a strong hand. And they see Seselj as a man with such a hand,” he adds.

The latest survey of the Partner polling agency, published last week, showed that 43 per cent of voters are undecided about the presidential candidate they would choose.

Some 17.1 per cent said they would give their vote to Seselj and 14 per cent to the SPS. Observers believe Milosevic will be very concerned about how the world sees the elections. “More than ever, Milosevic cares about what the world thinks of him, ” says Ognjen Pribicevic of the Belgrade Institute of Social Sciences.

“It is not because he wants to present himself as a man who cares or as a democratic person. The only reason is the money. The country is penniless and if it remains outside the international financial institutions, the collapse of the regime is imminent. And that is something Milosevic would not like to see”.