POLITICS-IRAQ: How Much Flexibility Does UN Have?

By Farhan Haq Reprint | | Print |

UNITED NATIONS, Feb 18 1998 (IPS) - U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan says he is carrying one important piece of advice from the 15- nation Security Council when he begins a visit to Baghdad on Friday: “Be firm in substance, and show flexibility in form.”

That dictum underscores the dilemma of Annan’s mission to the Middle east – the first by a U.N. secretary-general since Javier Perez de Cuellar failed to secure a deal for Iraqi troops to leave Kuwait before the onset of the 1991 Persian Gulf War.

On the one hand, Annan is under pressure from the United States to abide by a strict formula to prod Iraq to provide full access to eight presidential complexes for U.N. weapons inspection teams. As far as that task is concerned, U.S. Ambassador Bill Richardson put it bluntly on Wednesday, “we don’t think there are any deals or compromises.”

On the other hand, the U.N. chief must be able to offer Iraqi President Saddam Hussein a better offer than a simple ultimatum identical to the U.S. position.

As a result, after a week of haggling, most Security Council powers – notably Russia, France and China – have supported a face- saving compromise that would likely seek to include diplomats as well as U.N. inspectors in the teams examining the presidential sites.

That deal seems to have commanded at least enough support by all Council members – including the United States – to allow Annan to think he can succeed in his mission.

“The trip had to be prepared very carefully” to push the chances for success, Annan said Wednesday before departing for Paris. But he added that, as he left for Baghdad, he had “the full support of all Security Council members.”

In addition, Annan said that he had already received some encouraging signs from Iraqi officials that they are prepared to discuss a possible settlement. “They have indicated that they are serious,” the secretary-general said.

However, it remains questionable whether the United States is interested in any deal that could look like a compromise, at a time when thousands of U.S. troops are being deployed in Kuwait and the Persian Gulf and President Bill Clinton has dismissed the chances of an “ambiguous third route” out of the crisis.

Even as Annan offered a possible diplomatic way out of the standoff, Richardson cautioned, “Diplomacy is nearly exhausted.” Moreover, he warned, “The United States reserves the right to oppose any agreement that does not protect Security Council resolutions” and the status of the U.N. inspectors – leaving open the possibility that Washington will attack even if Annan can find a middle course.

Richardson emphasised that the inspectors could not be allowed to face time limits on their monitoring of the presidential sites, as Baghdad has proposed; nor will the United States and Britain allow them to be hindered by any diplomats who might accompany them.

At the same time, Annan’s hand is strengthened by the wide support he enjoys in the Security Council for a final diplomatic push.

“It is crucial that all the members of the United Nations support the secretary-general in his efforts, for this will have the greatest chances for the success of (his) mediation in Iraq,” said Chinese Ambassador Qin Huasun, who called the trip an “important opportunity to save peace”.

U.S. officials, although tight-lipped about what shape a workable compromise could take, insist that Annan does have some flexibility in the talks he is to conduct in Baghdad. Despite U.S. denials of any compromise, the White House is believed to have allowed Annan at least to broach the idea of sending in a few U.N. Special Commission (UNSCOM) inspection teams accompanied by diplomats from Britain, China, France, Russia and the United States.

Already, a U.N. team led by Steffan de Mistura has been in Iraq mapping out the eight disputed presidential sites to determine exactly how much area the Iraqis currently believe to be off- limits. However, as Annan has cautioned, all Security Council members are adamant that the inspectors be allowed full access to all sites.

The shape of a possible deal remains murky, and either the United States or Iraq could reject a diplomatic solution outright. But for now, Annan’s initiative has stalled what had seemed, over the past several weeks, to be the inexorable push toward war.

Annan has not indicated how long he will remain in Baghdad, although officials here doubt he will stay for more than a few days. But his visit at least pushes the date for a possible U.S. attack back until the beginning of next week at the earliest. If he strikes some kind of deal, officials add, the Security Council would have to consider it before any other options such as military force could be attempted.

More importantly, Annan’s trip gives the opportunity for nations that are eager to avoid a war to voice alternatives to force. A scheduled meeting in Paris Thursday between the secretary- general and French President Jacques Chirac is likely to underscore that point, as is the growing clamour from Arab leaders like Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak to find a diplomatic solution.

Those leaders, however, agree with Clinton on one thing: If the current diplomatic process falters, there is not that much time left before the military option will begin.