POLITICS-YUGOSLAVIA: The Crucial Test

By Vesna Peric Zimonjic Reprint | | Print |

Vesna Peric Zimonjic

BELGRADE, Aug 1 2000 (IPS) - The Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (FRY), which consists of Serbia and Montenegro, will hold presidential and parliamentary elections on September 24.

The polls, analysts say, will be viewed by many as the crucial test for the 10-year long rule of Yugoslav president Slobodan Milosevic.

“In a way, the elections can be seen as the major test for all the actors involved in the political scene of this country,” said Belgrade analyst, Ivan Torov.

“They will mean a survival game for Milosevic and his regime but also for the opposition that has unsuccessfully tried to topple him for years”.

Five separate opinion polls in July showed further decline in the popularity of Milosevic and his regime. More than 70 percent of Serbs blame the regime for the unprecedented isolation and economic catastrophe facing the country.

“All the predictions following the five polls say that the opposition parties would win a landslide victory,” Srecko Mihajlovic of the Belgrade Institute for Social Sciences told IPS.

“United opposition parties would win 44 percent of the votes ruling parties 19, while some 37 percent are still undecided and prone to abstain from voting,” he added.

“The results stand even with the broad spectrum of well known manipulations that the regime keeps prepared for such occasions,” Mihajlovic explained.

He quoted as an example the campaign, through the state- controlled media, on the virtual successful reconstruction of the country after last year’s North Atlantic Treaty Organisation, NATO’s air raids.

Also, there is sudden appearance on the market of goods, like sugar and cooking oil, that have been in short supply for months.

Besides, like many experts, Mihajlovic quoted the total control by the regime of the electoral register, counting of votes and no foreign monitors, as major obstacles for fair elections.

No elections here, since the introduction of multi party system in 1990, were defined as free and fair by domestic or foreign observers, when those were allowed into the country.

“Last, but not the least, the new electoral laws were clearly designed for Milosevic and his regime to stay in power,” Mihajlovic added.

Milosevic signed the decision on presidential and parliamentary elections in front of state-controlled Radio Television of Serbia (RTS) on Thursday, July 28. The decision followed constitutional changes, hurriedly adopted by the federal parliament last month.

The opposition parties, as well as Montenegrin parties, did not vote in favour of changes, but they were passed with the safe majority of votes of MPs loyal to Milosevic.

They enable Milosevic to run for another two four-year terms, through the direct vote all over Yugoslavia. The disproportion between 7,5 million inhabitants of Serbia and only 650,000 inhabitants of Montenegro was totally overlooked by the changes.

Previously, the president was elected to a single term and Milosevic’s single mandate was scheduled to expire in July 2001.

The system of direct vote is applied now for the upper chamber of the federal parliament, the important body that confirms all the decisions of lower chamber. It used to be made out of 20 plus 20 MPs representing parliaments of Serbia and Montenegro.

The direct vote for this body means that the Montenegrin parliament will be by-passed.

Since 1998, the parliament of the tiny republic is controlled by Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS) of Montenegrin President Milo Djukanovic. Djukanovic is at odds with Milosevic, blaming him for isolation and economic catastrophe of FRY.

One of the most important changes is the one that revokes the necessity of 50 percent voters’ turnout for all the elections to be valid.

“This is very important, as Milosevic would prefer Montenegro and Serbian opposition to boycott the elections,” Belgrade analyst, Bratislav Grubacic, told IPS.

“It would take only his sympathisers to vote in order to keep him in power. He really does not care what the world would say on the fairness of the elections,” he added.

Highest officials of Montenegro have repeatedly said that the republic will boycott the elections.

“We cannot agree to any unfair and discriminatory elections like those that Milosevic’s ruling clique promoted for its own purposes,” Miodrag Vukovic, adviser of opposition leader, Milo Djukanovic, told the independent media in Belgrade recently.

Relying on the growing dissatisfaction of ordinary people, major Serbian opposition parties, united in the Democratic Opposition of Serbia, have decided to go to the polls.

At a key meeting, held in Belgrade last weekend, representatives of 15 opposition parties said “it was their duty and obligation” to contest Milosevic, despite regulations that are not in their favour.

The largest single Serbian opposition party, Serbian Renewal Movement (SPO) headed by Vuk Draskovic, will decided at a meeting scheduled for Sunday whether to boycott the elections or not.

Djukanovic faces pressure from another side – Western European countries and the US when he meets their representatives later this week.

His Western allies say that the axis formed by Djukanovic and Serbian opposition could topple Milosevic.

Recent opinion polls show that Milosevic’s calculation of safe victory might not be right.

A survey of the Institute of Social Sciences shows that the presidential candidate of united Serbian opposition, Vojislav Kostunica, could win 42 percent of votes. Similar survey showed Milosevic obtaining 28 percent.

The opposition is to decide on its single presidential candidate over the weekend, with Kostunica being the favourite.

Until now, no opinion polls showed such a small number of votes for the strong man that has run the country for the past decade.

The regime will face another challenge on September 24. In accordance with the law, Serbian parliament speaker, Dragan Tomic, last Thursday called for local elections.

It means that on the same date, a larger part of FRY, 7,5 million strong Serbia, will decide who will run almost 200 municipalities in the republic.

Since 1997, the 15 largest towns of Serbia, including the 2,5 million capital of Belgrade, are run by the parties opposed to Milosevic. All the opposition parties, including the SPO that runs Belgrade, will participate in the local elections.

The electoral battle and campaign here has already begun.