POLITICS-SRI LANKA: No Clear Winners Expected in October Poll

By Feizal Samath Reprint | | Print |

Feizal Samath

COLOMBO, Sep 24 2000 (IPS) - Sri Lanka is preparing to elect a new parliament next month with the two main rivals running neck and neck, amidst expectations by some that voters may have to give yet another verdict.

Battered by military losses against Tamil Tiger rebels and public anger over rising prices, President Chandrika Kumaratunga’s People’s Alliance (PA) is still seen to have a slight edge over the main opposition United National Party (UNP).

A UNP win could create complications because it would then have to work with the country’s real executive head Kumaratunga.

The UNP has said it would clip the powers of the president if it wins the poll. But the PA says this cannot be done and the president would remain the all-powerful head of government as provided by the new constitution.

Fears have also been expressed by the international community that the Oct. 10 polls to elect a new 225-member parliament, would be marred by growing violence that is undermining one of the developing world’s oldest democracies.

More than 12 million Sri Lankans will take part in the country’s 11th national election since independence from British colonial rule 52 years ago. An independent European Union (EU) observer team, which is here to monitor the poll, is worried about the violence.

“Already, we have read reports of about 260 incidents of violence. But let’s hope the poll will be fair and free,” John Cushnahan, member of European Parliament and leader of the six-member team, told reporters.

Human rights groups fear a surge in poll-related violence in the coming weeks, coupled with election fraud.

The ruling coalition has been jolted by the death, in a mid- September helicopter crash, of Mohamed Ashraff who was Ports Minister and leader of a key coalition ally.

Cushnahan said he hoped the EU team’s presence would deter potential troublemakers.

“We hope that our mission, by its very presence, can contribute to reducing the possibility of electoral fraud and irregularities, as well as the tension and political violence we have already seen begin to re-emerge during this campaign,” he said.

Another 68 EU observers will join his team in the next few weeks, he said. The poll monitors would keep watch on about five percent of the estimated 9,500 polling booths on election day.

The EU team will submit its report to the EU headquarters in Brussels. Political analysts say future EU aid to Sri Lanka may be based on the report of the observer mission.

Former Sri Lankan Air Force chief, Harry Gunatillake, who writes a political column for newspapers, also expects political violence to escalate in the coming weeks.

The ruling alliance has rejected opposition charges that the level of violence now is higher than before the last parliamentary election six years ago, which were supervised by a UNP government.

“The violence during the run-up to the 1994 poll when the UNP was in power, was much higher. Then there were 15 killings and 1,542 cases of other incidents during a one month period,” declared Media Minister Mangala Samaraweera.

Most political analysts expect the PA to win the most seats in parliament, but not enough to form a government on its own.

“We may be faced with a hung parliament for the first time. Whichever party is able to form a government, will have a fragile coalition that may be forced into elections before its term is over,” said Keethish Loganathan of the Centre for Policy Alternatives.

The PA came to office in 1994 with a single-seat majority, ending 17 years of continuous rule by the UNP. Kumaratunga’s coalition has ruled all these years with the help of smaller groups who have backed the PA on an issue- by-issue basis.

Both the PA and the UNP, led by former Prime Minister Ranil Wickremasinghe, are offering to find a political solution to the 17-year-old ethnic war in the north and continue with economic liberalisation.

But they have largely different ways of tackling political and economic issues. More than 70,000 people have died in the Tamil Tiger rebellion for a separate home for Sri Lanka’s minority Tamil people in the north and east of the Indian Ocean island nation.

The Tigers inflicted a series of stunning losses on government troops in April, badly denting the government’s image.

Political observers say the latest army assault, which killed at least 500 rebels, as claimed by the military, was ordered to repair the political damage from the earlier military reverses.

Prime Minister Ratnasiri Wickremanayake has repeatedly said at election rallies that the army will recapture before Oct. 10, the key Elephant Pass link to the Jaffna peninsula, which was seized by the rebels in April. An even bigger worry for the government is the popular anger against a surge in prices of fuel, cooking gas, electricity and other essential items in recent months.

However, some economists say the PA has a better chance of building on the five percent economic growth of recent years. According to Indrajith Aponsu who teaches economics at the Colombo University, the economy lacks direction, but the PA can make corrections if it returns to office.

Kumaratunga now has “capable men” to run the economy, he said, referring to Economic Development Minister Ronnie de Mel. De Mel, who quit the UNP to join the PA in August, is regarded as a prize catch for the ruling alliance. As Sri Lanka’s longest serving finance minister during the UNP’s rule, he was one of the main architects of economic liberalisation.

Other economy analysts have greater faith in a UNP-led government, which they think will take decisions faster than a PA government.

Leading Sri Lankan entrepreneur, Patrick Amarasinghe, who heads the National Exporters Association, believes that private business would prefer a PA win for the sake of continuity of policy.

A major contender in the poll is the left-wing People’s Liberation Front, better known by its acronym JVP, which is becoming popular with young voters.

Analysts expect the JVP to draw away a large chunk of the undecided voters, estimated by some to be 40 percent of the total electorate. Despite its involvement in two bloody revolts against the government in the 1970s and 1980s, the JVP is now an influential democratic political force, especially in the provinces.

“It is the JVP and the smaller minority parties who would call the shots this time. The two main parties would have to depend on their support to form a government,” said political commentator Gunatillake.