POLITICS-SRI LANKA: Indecisive Poll Verdict May Slow Peace Bid

By Feizal Samath Reprint | | Print |

Feizal Samath

COLOMBO, Oct 12 2000 (IPS) - The indecisive verdict by Sri Lanka’s over 12 million voters has made it more difficult for the ruling alliance, which looked set to retain office, to tackle the two decade-old ethnic violence in the Indian Ocean island nation.

According to final official results of Tuesday’s parliament polls, announced Thursday evening, the People’s Alliance (PA) of President Chandrika Kumaratunga emerged as the largest single party with 107 seats in the 225-member parliament.

The main opposition United National Party (UNP) got 89 seats and the left-wing People’s Liberation Front, better known by its Sinhala acronym JVP, a distant third with 10 seats. The remaining 19 seats were shared by smaller groups.

Sri Lanka’s electoral system is partially based on proportional representation, with 29 seats being allocated to parties on the proportion of votes polled.

Political analysts said a hung parliament made it more difficult for Kumaratunga, who remains in office even if the PA cannot muster a majority, to push through her peace initiative to end the 17-year-old civil war and put the economy back on track.

“There is still confusion over the final outcome of the poll and we are unsure as to who will form the next government,” said Keethish Loganathan of the ‘Centre for Policy Alternatives’, an independent think- tank.

The new government was expected to be sworn in Monday, after Saturday’s funeral of Kumaratunga’s mother, Sirima Bandaranaike, the world’s first woman prime minister, who died on polling day.

S.B. Dissanayake, general secretary of the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP), the biggest party in the PA coalition, said the PA would manage to find the backing of 114 lawmakers. “We will approach President Chandrika Kumaratunga and ask here to take steps to appoint a PA government today or tomorrow,” he was quoted as saying on state television.

The UNP said it too was in touch with smaller parties to muster a majority.

The announcement of the poll results was delayed by a day by the national election commission following complaints of election fraud and violence. There were reports of widespread intimidation of voters and impersonation, particularly in the central Kandy district, where opposition parties and even some ruling party politicians, accused Deputy Defence Minister Anuruddha Ratwatte of encouraging violence and poll fraud.

A poll monitoring observer team sent by the Commonwealth Secretariat, reported shortcomings in the election, but added that these would not affect the outcome significantly.

“The team also observed and received reports of more serious shortcomings outside the electoral machinery, which they would be detailing in their final report to me,” Commonwealth Secretary-General Don McKinnon said in a statement.

Earlier, an observer team from the European Union (EU) said it was concerned about rising violence in the run up to the polls. At least 1,500 major and minor incidents of election-related violence were reported during the election campaign in which 60 people were killed, mostly by Tamil Tiger rebels.

According to economist Saman Kelegama of the Institute of Policy Studies, if the PA holds on to office, it would also have to concentrate on economic issues. “During the PA’s first term in office, it gave prominence to the ethnic conflict. Now it would have to give equal prominence to the economy,” he said.

Sri Lankans have been troubled by a sharp rise in living costs this year. Local fuel prices have risen by 40 percent, pushing up prices of all essential items. Economists have warned of further increases in fuel prices.

“Any government must given top priority to the economy to put it in the growth path of 6.5 to seven percent growth. Sri Lanka has the potential of growing at eight percent, if not for the war, which has seen growth averaging at five percent in the past few years,” Kelegama said.

The ethnic conflict, which has claimed more than 60,000 lives, is a major factor holding up economic growth, by not only forcing diversion of scarce government funds to the war, but putting off foreign investment and tourism.

Tamil Tiger rebels are fighting for a separate home for Sri Lanka’s minority Tamil people in the country’s north, alleging discrimination by the Sinhalese majority.

Most analysts believe that Kumaratunga, with the backing of the PA government, would pursue a policy of war and peace — pushing ahead with the military campaign against the rebels even as she offers them a political package to bring them to the negotiating table.

“A prospective PA government would really have to sit down, weigh its options and think carefully about the future,” said Jayadeva Uyangoda, senior lecturer in political science at Colombo University.

Both the PA and the UNP have vowed to seek a peaceful settlement with the Tamil Tigers, even though the UNP did not agree with Kumaratunga’s peace plan involving the devolution of sweeping autonomy to Sri Lanka’s provinces, including the north.

The election saw the rout of Sinhala hardline parties that were opposed to the devolution plan. Only the Sihala Urumaya (our heritage) party got a single seat. This party champions Sinhala rights and is vociferously opposed to provincial autonomy.

According to senior Tamil language journalist Sivanasa Chelvam, the voters had rejected Sinhalese nationalists because they believed only the big parties can help the Tamil people. “I think people still believe it is the two main political parties that can deliver the goods to the minority Tamils,” he said.

The Tamil minority, making up for nearly a fifth of Sri Lanka’s 19 million people, complains of discrimination by successive governments dominated by the Sinhalese community.

Analysts said that the PA, which secured a one-seat majority in the last parliamentary election six years ago, had lost in north-central strongholds because of protests there by farmers angered by cheap food imports and low rice prices.

But the ruling alliance retained control over its southern strongholds where residents are still unhappy over the former UNP government’s brutal military crackdown on a JVP revolt.