POLITICS: Montenegro’s Elections A Test For Yugoslav Federation

By Vesna Peric Zimonjic Reprint | | Print |

Vesna Peric Zimonjic

BELGRADE, Apr 20 2001 (IPS) - Voters in Montenegro go to the polls Sunday, in what is believed to be a crucial exercise for the future of Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (FRY).

Montenegro, with a population of some 650,000, along with Serbia, inhabited by a population of more than 7.5 million, makes up the federation.

For years now, Montenegro’s President Milo Djukanovic has insisted on the independence of his tiny state. If his “Victory Belongs to Montenegro” coalition party, wins the polls, Djukanovic has promised a referendum on independence by the end of June or beginning of July.

All the opinion polls show that more than 52 per cent of 447,673 voters support the “Victory” coalition that is expected to produce the majority of legislators in the 77-seat parliament. The polls show that 58 per cent of Montenegrins would vote for independence in the referendum.

In the past, many Montenegrins, who had shared Djukanovic’s views, believed that their tiny republic had no future, while the FRY remained under the leadership of Slobodan Milosevic. Their stand found followers in the West that backed Montenegro financially.

But Milosevic’s fall from power last year has failed to tone down Djukanovic’s resolve and he remains firm in the independence drive. The warning by the European Union (EU) last week, that it will cut financial aid if Montenegro’s elections proved to be a threat to the FRY, also appears to have had little impact on the republic and its leader.

“We have gone too far down the independence road”, Djukanovic told his supporters at the final rally on Wednesday. “There is no real future for us being linked to Serbia.”

Since 1998, creeping secession in Montenegro has led to separate monetary system, based on German Mark. The only federal ties that remain with Belgrade are the army and air traffic control networks.

Facing Djukanovic is a pro-Yugoslav coalition, “Together for Yugoslavia”, led by Milosevic’s ally, Predrag Bulatovic. Bulatovic’s argued during the campaign that FRY is the best guarantee for the economic survival and development of Montenegro.

The republic is heavily dependent on direct foreign aid and faces bankruptcy should the West cut it. Bulatovic, in the final phase of his campaign, accused Djukanovic of allowing Montenegro to become a “smugglers’ paradise”.

Djukanovic is allegedly closely connected, through murky business deals, with several Mafia families in southern Italy, across the Adriatic Sea.

Analysts warn that Montenegro’s vote and impending referendum on independence could mean troubles not only for FRY, but also for the turbulent Balkans. Former Yugoslavia fell apart as a result of wars in the 1990s, giving birth to several new states.

“In case of Montenegro’s secession, we would face problems along Serbia’s borders, including the unsolved status of Kosovo,” says Belgrade political analyst Stevan Lilic. Kosovo is the southern Serbian province, populated by ethnic Albanians. It has been run by the United Nations administration since 1999.

“The pressure of Albanian majority in Kosovo to step out from FRY and proclaim independence will grow”, Lilic adds. “Then, the same demands will be heard from Albanians in Macedonia and the hell could break lose”.

Ethnic Albanians in western Macedonia took arms in March, demanding greater autonomy in the republic of two million people. The rebellion was inspired and backed by Kosovo Albanians, but was quelled with the help of international community.

“Allowing Montenegro to go down the road to real independence will mean re-drawing the borders in the Balkans once again, after a decade of bloody wars,” political analyst Bratislav Grubacic told IPS. “Besides, Kosovo or Albanians in Macedonia, Serbs in Bosnia could demand to be joined to Serbia, Croats in Bosnia could ask for the same…Such problems would be a major test for the international community if it turns a blind eye to Montenegro’s effort to secede”.

The bloody war in Bosnia-Herzegovina that involved Serbs, Croats and Muslims, ended in 1995 with the US-sponsored Dayton Peace Accord.

The country was administratively divided into the Muslim-Croat Federation and Bosnian Serb entity. Many Croats and Serbs still believe they should be allowed to join their mother countries – Croatia and Serbia, which would mean dissolution of Bosnia.

Belgrade’s new leadership, distancing itself from the rule of the former president Milosevic, says it will respect the will of Montenegro and its citizens. Milosevic used to threaten Montenegro with military intervention in the past.

“Belgrade’s new authorities will behave democratically. They will accept even something that would separate Montenegro from Serbia,” Yugoslav President Vojislav Kostunica told journalists in the capital Belgrade.

Serbian Prime Minister Zoran Djindjic echoed Kostunica’s words. “If the people of Montenegro decide on an independent state, we’ll let them establish their independent state…The majority of the Montenegrin population should decide what kind of state they want to live in,” he said.

However, Kostunica and Djindjic said in a joint statement earlier this week that they “would be very satisfied if Montenegro decides to remain within the joint state.”

“In that case, we will gladly start talks over redefining the joint state and internal relations,” they said in the statement.