POPULATION: Growth Declines, But Numbers Rise in Poor Nations

By Thalif Deen Reprint | | Print |

Thalif Deen

UNITED NATIONS, Apr 10 2001 (IPS) - The world population growth rate has declined from a peak of 2.0 percent in 1965 to 1.7 percent in 1980 and to 1.3 percent in 2000, according to the latest UN statistics released here.

Over the next 50 years, the growth rate is projected to decline even further: to 1.0 percent around 2020 and 0.5 percent in 2050. All of the population growth after 2025, however, will take place only in developing nations.

“The latest UN estimates and projections of world population show a continuing slowing of population growth,” the United Nations says in a study released Tuesday.

The world population was estimated at 6.0 billion in 2000, up from 2.5 billion in 1960, and 4.4 billion in 1980. Despite the low growth rates, the total world population is projected to grow to about 8.0 billion in 2025 and 9.3 billion in 2050.

The study titled ‘Demographic Dynamics and Sustainability’ will go before the UN Commission on Sustainable Development which meets Apr. 30 – May 2. The Commission is acting as a preparatory committee for the World Summit for Sustainable Development (Earth Summit II) scheduled to take place next year in South Africa.

The study summarises the progress made – specifically in the area of population and sustainable development – since the 1992 Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

The report points out that the world’s poorest countries tend to have the highest population growth rates, undermining their efforts to invest in human development, reduce poverty and promote sustainable development.

Of the 77 million people being added to the world’s population each year, most are born in the world’s poorest countries in Africa and Asia.

Since there will still be “significant annual increases in population in the developing world for some decades”, the environmental and social implications remain far-reaching for many poor countries. This will be felt particularly in developing nations where water is scarce, population density is high, and land degradation and deforestation are most severe.

“High fertility rates and the resulting high ratio of children to working-age adults make it particularly difficult to meet the international target of providing all children with at least an elementary education,” the study notes.

Addressing reporters last week, Joseph Chamie, Director of the UN’s Population Division, said the top contributors to population growth would be India, Pakistan, China, Nigeria, Bangladesh and Indonesia, with India “head and shoulders above the others”.

Those six countries, he said, were responsible for 60 percent of the world’s population growth today. India’s annual growth rate alone was equal to Pakistan, China and Nigeria combined.

Chamie said that India, which now accounted for one-fifth of the world’s population growth, had been projected to be larger than China by 2050.

In contrast, however, the natural increase in population – births minus deaths – for the 15-member European Union (EU) was only 343,000 for the entire year. India achieved that amount of population growth during the first week of this year.

He noted, however, that the populations for one in five countries were expected to be smaller than they are today. For example, Germany would be 14 percent smaller, and both Italy and Hungary would be smaller by 25 percent. Of the industrial nations, Canada, Australia and the United States would post population increases.

The main factors that accounted for the differences in population growth included, among others, fertility, mortality, social factors and the employment of women. Another factor was the impact of HIV/AIDS.

Despite the continuing impact of the disease, populations in Africa were expected to grow. He also said that the world’s population would be significantly older than it is today. The number of persons 60 years or older was expected to triple by 2050.

Still, despite the depressing figures, Chamie said he was optimistic about the future.

“Population has been a success story. There was lower mortality and longer life in virtually every country of the world in comparison to 1950, Also, in nearly every country of the world, fertility has been addressed and people are increasingly controlling the size of their families,” he added.

Meanwhile, the UN study has also said that resource limitations in many countries have constrained the efforts of governments to address population and environmental concerns.

In many countries, conflicts, crises, natural disasters and economic, social and political instability have also limited governments to implement Agenda 21, the global environmental action plan adopted at the 1992 Earth Summit.