POLITICS-SRI LANKA: Uncertainty Rises as Government Teeters

By Feizal Samath Reprint | | Print |

Feizal Samath

COLOMBO, Jun 24 2001 (IPS) - Sri Lanka is in its worst ever-political crisis in seven years, as opposition parties close ranks to try to oust President Chandrika Kumaratunga’s administration after a key government ally quit last week.

Both Kumaratunga and the main opposition leader expressed confidence that either would succeed as parliament prepared for a no- confidence motion against the government.

This motion, which is expected to be debated upon in early July, would decide the fate of the ruling People’s Alliance’s (PA), which has been in power since 1994.

“No one can topple this government as a result of a small faction crossing over,” noted the president at a suburban meeting on Friday. “The government has sufficient power today, as it had in 1994. Whoever quit this government, we will not step down until the majority of the people asks us to do so.”

But opposition leader Ranil Wickremasinghe of the United National Party (UNP), leading the charge against the People’s Alliance, said a change of government was very likely. “This is a victory for us. The president has lost her (parliamentary) majority due to her own actions.”

He was speaking in the aftermath of the stunning dismissal on Wednesday of a key PA ally from the government and its party, which quickly crossed over to opposition ranks.

The sacking of Rauf Hakeem, leader of the Sri Lanka Muslim Congress (SLMC) and also minister of trade and commerce, capped a week of political uncertainty in which parliament rejected attempts by the judiciary to assert its supremacy and the opposition filed a no-faith motion against the government.

Speaker Anura Bandaranaike rejected a Supreme Court ruling restraining him from accepting an opposition-mooted impeachment motion against the chief justice Sarath Silva, who is alleged to be living in adultery.

The Marxist People’s Liberation Front (JVP), with its 10 parliamentary and the latest kingmaker in a split parliament, met Saturday to decide which way it was going — supporting the government or the opposition.

But JVP spokesman Wimal Weerawansa said the party failed to reach a decision on the issue. “In the absence of a decision, the JVP MPs have been asked to make their own, individual choice when the no faith motion is debated in parliament,” he said.

Still, some analysts say the JVP is in favour of backing Kumaratunga and is likely to abstain from voting in the no-faith motion, a move that would help the government.

“If the government is defeated in parliament, the president — who continues in power as she is elected at a separate presidential poll — would be compelled to call on the opposition leader to form a government,” said Keethish Loganathan, a political analyst and researcher at the Centre for Policy Alternatives, a private think tank.

While Kumaratunga has warded off previous attempts by the opposition to oust her government outside elections, this is perhaps the worst nightmare she is facing and a real possibility of a government collapse looms ahead.

It is the first time too that the ruling PA lost its majority in parliament after Hakeem and six of his colleagues crossed over to opposition ranks.

The joint opposition now controls 119 seats in parliament to the PA’s 106 in the 225-seat legislature, compared to a week ago when the figures were in the exact reverse.

“She (Kumaratunga) is with her back to the walls. The administration (thought not visibly seen) is in shambles and her ministers are desperately working to get the required numbers to defeat the no-faith motion,” one analyst said.

Kumaratunga has urgently summoned back two of her faithful ministers who are currently abroad.

Whether the government falls hinges on the support either the PA or the UNP gets from other opposition parties, when the crucial vote on the no- faith motion is taken. Both sides are working hard to get their numbers with the UNP seen as more successful at the moment.

On Friday, Wickremasinghe’s party filed the motion in parliament with 87 signatures — including those from some Tamil minority parties — and more are expected to follow. “We are confident of getting another 16 MPs on our side,” UNP deputy leader Karu Jayasuriya told reporters.

Whatever the outcome of July’s no-faith motion, Kumaratunga can remain in power until around 2006 since she was re-elected in December 1999 for a second six-year term. Her People’s Alliance combine won the October 2000 national poll with SLMC support.

But presidential rule alongside a UNP government would be a difficult proposition for Kumaratunga, who would have no choice other than to call early national polls later this year, according to Loganathan.

The UNP has rejected calls for a national government — inclusive of the PA and the UNP — made in a desperate effort by some ministers including Prime Minister Ratnasiri Wickremanayake to save the PA from totally losing control.

But Wickremasinghe, who has consistently supported any national move toward peacefully ending the country’s ethnic conflict over the Tamils’ rebellion for their own homeland, on Friday met Kumaratunga and promised his party’s support to her government’s peace efforts.

Both leaders stuck to the peace agenda and did not fully discuss the political crisis, contrary to what people expected.

The political crisis has once again put the peace process on the backburner after eight months of intense mediation by Norwegian peace envoy Erik Solheim.

The process received a setback earlier this month when Solheim was dumped as chief mediator at Sri Lanka’s request. Government politicians say Solheim appears to be partial toward Tamil Tiger rebels.

Norway has being trying to arrange peace talks between the two sides to end an 18-year old revolt by the rebels, who are backing demands for a separate state in the north and the east for the minority Tamil community. More than 60,000 people have died in the war.

Kumaratunga’s seven-year old rule has been affected by the escalating war and its high economic and human cost, widespread corruption, rising urban crime blamed on army deserters and underworld gangs and high cost of living.

Delays in getting peace talks off the ground and increasing military spending has distanced the president from the country’s Tamil minority community. This group once put a lot of faith on Kumaratunga to end the conflict and provide Tamils a dignified solution to their demands for equal rights in education, employment and language use.

Analysts said the rebels prefer a UNP regime, which promises to start peace talks immediately and set up an interim administration in the north and east with rebel support.