SRI LANKA: After Poll, Voters Seek End to Divisive Politics

By Feizal Samath Reprint | | Print |

Feizal Samath

COLOMBO, Dec 7 2001 (IPS) - Sri Lanka’s opposition party is winning the Dec. 5 national poll sufficiently to form the next government, but analysts say the sharing of power between the opposition and the current president is needed to get this war-ravaged country back on its feet.

For now however, tensions over how the two main political forces can work together is becoming a test of nerves for this war-ravaged island nation.

While early results indicate that opposition leader Ranil Wickremasinghe’s United National Party (UNP) is set to form a new government, President Chandrika Kumaratunga of the now ruling People’s Alliance (PA) continues as president and has awesome powers to go with it.

“Both sides have to demonstrate political maturity and share power,” said Jayadeva Uyangoda, a political scientist with Colombo University. Like many Sri Lankans, he says hopes the two leaders would work together and take this country out of its economic and political mess.

The UNP swept the polls, winning nine of the 10 districts declared so far with the results of 12 more districts due later after Wednesday’s parliamentary elections, which was marked by unprecedented violence.

The UNP captured 47 percent of the announced votes and 40 seats, the PA 39 percent and 28 seats while the Marxist People’s Liberation Front or JVP captured nine percent and four seats in the 225-seat assembly.

Projections show the UNP would win between 105 and 115 seats, comfortable enough to singularly form a government or rule with the support of smaller parties.

Sixty people, including 16 on polling day alone, were killed in the 40-day poll campaign while more than 2,000 other election-related incidents were reported to the police. Political analysts and election observers said it was the worst-ever violence at any Sri Lankan election.

Elections Commissioner Dayananda Dissanayake is meeting party officials on Friday morning to decide whether or not to call for fresh voting in areas in the central town of Kandy, the region worst hit by violence, and Gampaha, a ruling party stronghold in the western region.

The UNP and observers accused the ruling party of widespread violence and rigging, which they say would affect the opposition. But political analysts said that despite the unrest and intimidation, voters across Sri Lanka had given the main opposition party a clear mandate to govern.

The new government’s mandate is very clear – to prop up a deteriorating economy and end the 18-year old ethnic conflict that has cost more than 65,000 lives since 1983.

“There is no doubt about that. War and the economy are the most crucial issues and they run parallel. Solutions have to be found quickly to these two problems,” said Uyangoda.

Sri Lanka’s economy battered by the war and a worsening external environment means the country’s exports are headed for near zero growth this year for the first time in decades. Inflation is rising sharply. Economists say that any revival next year to a 3-5 percent growth could not be considered an achievement, because the economy would be growing from a very low base.

The UNP, which has shared national power with Kumaratunga’s party over the past 50 years, is generally perceived a better economic manager than the PA and has the backing of the country’s business community and foreign investors.

On the war front, political analyst Keethish Loganathan reckons the new government will get down to the serious business of re-opening talks with Tamil Tiger guerrillas, who want their own separate state.

“But it would also depend on the kind of majority the UNP is able to secure in the new parliament,” he said, pointing that that a new Tamil alliance that swept the polls in the Tamil-dominated north and east is likely to back the UNP.

The four-party Tamil National Alliance, which got unofficial support from the guerrillas and is set to secure at least 10 seats in the assembly, wants peace talks to start immediately with the rebels.

Loganathan of the local think tank Centre for Policy Alternatives says the alliance is unlikely to be part of a UNP government as widely believed.

Peace talks have been on a backburner for the past six months after Kumaratunga’s coalition government collapsed after a key ally crossed over to opposition ranks. Norway has been acting as a facilitator in the peace process. Analysts say the UNP’s Wickremasinghe is expected to initiate a new phase in the peace agenda within weeks.

But that would all depend on Kumaratunga, who has openly shown her hostility toward the opposition leader and said publicly that she would not work with any UNP government.

Kumaratunga’s six-year term ends only in 2006. As president, she heads the government and the Cabinet, with the prime minister coming under her control.

Defence and finance, the two most important ministries, are under her control but the president would be under pressure from Wickremasinghe to share power here.

Kumaratunga is expected to invite Wickremasinghe to become the prime minister of a new government later on Friday night or early Saturday after all the results are known.

Trends in the state media on Thursday and Friday indicate a gradual conciliatory approach by the president. Rupavahini, the state- owned television that has been spewing anti-opposition rhetoric, said the UNP had secured a “clear” win even though all the results have not yet come in.

The ‘Daily News’, a state newspaper stridently critical of Wickremasinghe and his party, carried a rare, large picture of the UNP leader against a small headshot of Kumaratunga. Its main headline read, “UNP heading for victory”.

Two days ago, Wickremasinghe offered his hand of friendship and cooperation and urged Kumaratunga to end an era of confrontational politics.

Most agree that it is only the two main political parties that can bring an end to the ethnic conflict. “These two parties represent more than 80 percent of Sri Lanka’s voting population and any joint peace solution would be widely accepted,” said a Colombo businessman.

Another clear sign of the desire for peace was voters’ rejection at Wednesday’s poll of an ultra-nationalist Sinhala party, which is opposed to peace talks and wants the government to wipe out the Tigers.